EPTAnd it is true. The probability is not exactly 50%. The number should be adjusted based on our "reads" but again our reads should be able to change that number too much, unless there is like overwhelming evidence.
Newbie Mini Mafia XX - Page 8
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
And it is true. The probability is not exactly 50%. The number should be adjusted based on our "reads" but again our reads should be able to change that number too much, unless there is like overwhelming evidence. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 12 2012 08:47 Hapahauli wrote: If reads can change the number, why don't we try to make that number a bit more accurate then? Why don't you dig through Bass's filter and see if we can make this a bit more accurate? This is the last I'll say on the subject of the whole 50% thing - you're putting blind faith in probability. This is a game of analysis, not coinflips. You continue to make a reference to "coinflips". Scumhunting and deciding who to lynch IS based on our perception of probability of each player being scum. But here is a difference. Scumhunting and your so called "game analysis" is not going to give you a coinflip. I wish it did though. And yes, as I have previously stated, analyzing players' post is an important tool and the only tool townies have. But when we start ignoring numbers that power roles give us, we are playing with a big handicap. And you keep bringing up that it doesn't matter if we lynch Bass today or on day 5. And while I'd much prefer Bass lynch today, the current discussion seems to think that Bass can be given an excuse to never be lynched. Otherwise, time would be better spent on talking about other players' scuminess. Bass "should" die anyway, right? This is frustrating and I do not understand why people cannot understand we need to lynch Bass. But I want to win. Keep arguing my point when it's obviously not going to be heard is not going to help my cause. I will force myself to come up with a case against Bass, and hopefully I can convince even myself that Bass is "definitely" scum. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 12 2012 08:27 Hapahauli wrote: Scum would want to push a mislynch, especially of a player with a very pro-town history. Scum's best hope is to create an end-game scenario with a bunch of suspicious people. Scum Harry would LOVE a mislynch, OF COURSE. But scum Harry would MUCH MUCH MORE PREFER A LYNCH of an UNCONFIRMED TOWNIE. WAY WAY MORE THAN LYNCH OF BASS, A POSSIBLE SCUM/MILLER. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Nope. Wasn't. I was just ISOing him. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 12 2012 14:36 Hapahauli wrote: Harry. There's one scum left. If you are scum, you know he's innocent, therefore you push for a mislynch. Its pretty basic. I really can't follow you here... Yes, say I am scum. I know he is innocent. But it's much better to have a guy who is "known" to run red later in the day rather than having him get mislynched an flip town. Do you think scum Harry would want Bass on Day 5 with me or not? | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
I would push for Mackin's lynch. He hasn't posted much and seems hiding of late. I previously posted a weak case against him, but if he's alive LYLO, it would not be good news as he's inactivity may get him modkilled, which may equal instant loss, and he hasn't have many posts for others to analyze on (though BASS should die). Also I don't feel like he's keeping up with the game. ##VOTE Mackin | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 12 2012 15:00 Hapahauli wrote: I still don't get it. Scum want non-scum dead. Bass is an easy bandwagon target for scum, since it allows them an opportunity to lynch someone who's acted pro town with little or no analysis. The sooner they get rid of him the better. I will agree with your vote on Mackin though. He hasn't been speaking at all (lurking), he really only posts when he's called out/asked to (keeping the town on a need-to-know basis), and his posts have been all summary/finger-points. ##Unvote YourHarry ##Vote Mackin That is my point. Bass should be an easy bandwagon on Day 5. That is why scum Harry or any scum would want Bass alive, if possible, until Day5. Scum makes it into day 5 with Bass, there is such a high chance for Bass the miller to be mislynched. But in the end, we showed that mathematically it doesn't matter for town whether we kill Bass first or last. It also shouldn't matter to scum. But if scum was faced with strong opposition against Bass lynch, he would have backed off easily to find another mislynch. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 12 2012 15:00 Hapahauli wrote: I still don't get it. Scum want non-scum dead. Bass is an easy bandwagon target for scum, since it allows them an opportunity to lynch someone who's acted pro town with little or no analysis. The sooner they get rid of him the better. I will agree with your vote on Mackin though. He hasn't been speaking at all (lurking), he really only posts when he's called out/asked to (keeping the town on a need-to-know basis), and his posts have been all summary/finger-points. ##Unvote YourHarry ##Vote Mackin Sick feeling. Sum Haph would want me, Bass, and Haph in LYLO. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
##Vote BassinSpace | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 12 2012 20:53 Lazermonkey wrote: He is saying that we should rely on a 50% chance (which isn't even correct, but let's ignore that for now)rather then regular scum hunting becuase we have been wrong about Release and Zen. This is while we have actually had 50% correct lynches based on regular scum hunting. About 50% IS correct. We can only estimate this number based on how scummy Bass has been acting. Second, I am not saying scum hunting unreliable because you guys were wrong about Release and Zen. I am saying: scum hunting is inherently not as reliable. Look back at you experiences. Sometimes we are right, but often we are not. I was just citing Release and Zen as examples to support that scum hunting is NATURALLY not that reliable. Not close to 50%. Even if we were right every single time so far, that does not change the fact that scum hunting is unreliable. Just like, when the coin lands heads 3 times, the probability land head is still 50%. And while we technically lynched correct 50% of the times, we were correct in our scum hunting 33% of the time. ZenMan was about to get lynched - until he claimed medic. This counts toward unsuccessful scum hunting. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 13 2012 02:18 Hapahauli wrote: It is not a 50/50 chance! *Foaming at the mouth* Calling it 50/50 is a vast oversimplification of things, especially if he's acting pro town. He's either 100% mafia, or 100% miller. Based on his pro-town actions, what do you think is more likely? It IS 50/50, except for the minor adjustments based on "scum hunting". He is either mafia or miller, OF COURSE. But 50% of the time he is 100% mafia, and 50% of the time he is 100% miller. In other words, he is mafia 50% of the time. I already said this. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 13 2012 06:53 Lazermonkey wrote: Jesus christ guys. My argument regarding the 50% regular scum hunting success rate was just an example to show how flawed Harry's logic was. Also scum reads become reliable the longer the game goes. The reason for this is that we obviously get more info the longer the game goes. I hope everyone agrees with this. Thus we should not lynch into Bass. He have been playing very townie all game. Please re-read what I have typed. Please re-think what you are saying. And please, tell me how my logic was flawed. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
What's the probability that Makin is scum? | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 13 2012 07:30 Lazermonkey wrote: I have read. I don't agree. Your logic is flawed because when Bass fucking flips fucking miller, what do we do? Where do we go from here? Because the only thing we get out of this lynch is that 5 people were relying more on coinflipping rather than scum reads. This plan is based on that Bass flips scum. If he doesn't, we are fucked. So you are saying that my logic is flawed because we are fucked when Bass flips scum... But IF Bass is scum, we are fucked UNLESS we lynch him And there is a high probability that Bass IS scum. Based on detective's report. AND even if Bass is miller, we still have two additional attempts to lynch the scum. And you seem to think coin flipping is bad... If I could get a coinflip on scum hunting, I would be the greatest mafia player ever in this world. By Far. Hands down. We WANT coinflips. We WOULD BE ECSTATIC! (Except for the fact that we would be even MORE ECSTATIC if evul checked out one of the townies that would have given us 100% victory  ) | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 13 2012 07:38 Lazermonkey wrote: The only non-confirmed players left is: Me Hapa Bass Mackin YourHarry I know I am town. For reasons I've already said(read my filter) I have a hard chance to belive that neither Bass nor Hapa is scum. So one of you guys must be scum. Both through the process of elimination and due to the fact that you are playing the most scummy atm. I don't like speaking in percentage when talking scum reads, I am however very sure one of you is scum. And to me, Harry is a bit more likely to be scum than Mackin. I can elaborate why I think so, but I'd rather not. There are far more important matters atm. Why don't you like in speaking in percentages? Please estimate the probability of Hapa, Bass, Mackin, and YourHarry being scum. I know exactly why you don't want to give percentages... It would make all of this argument in lynching Bass foolish. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 13 2012 07:50 Lazermonkey wrote: Okay guys, just because, who are your n2 scum read then? aka who should get lynched if/when Bass flips miller. Just curious... Honestly, I do not think you are scum. I would be comfortable with Makin then Hapha lynch. In either order. And this is not because I think they are particularly scummy. This is because I know there is ONE scum, among Makin, Hapha, and Lazer. And Lazer, I have the greatest town read on you. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 13 2012 08:56 Lazermonkey wrote: Yes, but this is What I mean. This plan is Only great if he is scum. You even say that youself. And I don't see a ReasoN for him being scum atm. I just don't. And no, as I've SaiD before. The DT getting red check on him means that he is either scum or miller. nothing more. In a game where WE had almost won after N1, I don't like to flip coins, as this is the Only ReaL Way WE can lose. Of course WE would be worse off if Bass is scum, but it would not be the End of the world. And exactly. DT getting red check means he is either scum or miller. Nothing more. Exactly. But this nothing more means he has about 50% ChAnCe of being scum. Which WE need to take. And yes, WE almost won after N1, but WE made mistakes since then:
So we are not as well off as we once were. There would be about 75% of us winning. And we should start with a coinflip in Bass. If we are wrong, we still have two attempts to find the scum. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 13 2012 09:00 Lazermonkey wrote: No because it's a good argument to justify misslynches. When Bass flips miller in an hour, noone will be responsible because they will just say ''Oh, he had 50% chance of flipping scum. We were unlucky'' when there were in fact no luck involved. However, since your so handsome, I'll do it anyway. Bass:5% Hapa:5% Mackin:40% You:50% Wow If you actually believed this, then it would make sense to argue everything that you have been arguing about.Except... I have hard time understanding how you think I am scum 50% of the time. Haha. I hope you change your mind soon, because I shouldn't be lynched. My probability would look something like this: Bass: 40% (Initial 50% based on detective report, but he really act scummy.) Hapha: 20% Mackin: 30% Lazer: 10% | ||
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