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On July 11 2012 12:35 Hapahauli wrote:
I'll double check my math, but there's no way it can be 50% for situation two, given that one of our main assumptions is that BassInSpace has a 50% chance of being mafia. That's a baseline of 50% no matter what day we lynch. In addition, we lynch other members increasing our chance over 50%
Yep, that's exactly what I thought. But I fixed it. Since we are assuming we are not lynching Bass, we have 1/4 chance today to lynch miller or mafia rather than 1/5.
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So mathematically, I don't think it makes a difference. So I am OK to proceed either way. If we save Bass lynch for later, we will have more contributions toward discussion in scum hunting. One issue I see with this approach is that, if Bass is mafia and and we fail to find the miller by day 4, he just needs to convince one of the two remaining players to change the course of the plan. If the last three remaining players are Bass, X and Y.
He can say to X: "Look I am pretty sure you are not mafia and you know it. As far as you are concerned, there is 50% chance Y being the scum. I also have 50% chance of being mafia. So it should be OK for you to pick between me and Y." But this would be flawed, because probability of Y being mafia is actually 25%. So this could possibly screw our plan.
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On July 11 2012 12:50 BassInSpace wrote:
On ky phone now, I must of course be the miller. If there atre Any cases against me I will respond to them when I get bavk as well as providing my thoughts on the current situation.
Hehe. Too bad, you are either getting ignored until day 5 or you are getting lynched today 
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Well, I wouldn't quite say "ignored" but you know what i mean
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modkilling mackin would be desirable for town
our chance of winning would go up to
Situation 1, we lynch Bass D3.
50% chance of Bass flipping Mafia (50% chance of victory)
50% chance of bass flipping miller
1/3 chance of lynching correct D4 (1/3 of 50% = 16.7%)
2/3 chance of mislynching D4 ---> 1/2 chance of lynching correct D5 (1/2 of 2/3 of 50% = 16.7%)
Chance of winning: 83.3% :D
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Not posting for 24 hours during night cycle could be the basis for modkill? Interesting.
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BTW, that was not a scum slip thinking that makin is not a scum, as makin scum would equal instant win.
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On July 11 2012 13:52 Hapahauli wrote:Yah here it is in the OP: Show nested quote +Activity:
You must post in this thread once per day/night cycle and vote every day while you are alive. If you fail to do so, you will be modkilled.
Cool! Mod kill Mod kill :D LOL
Actually would this make things less interesting.
But no more mod kill please. More than 1 mod kill = bad :D
OK I should start posting some content.
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On July 12 2012 04:11 Lazermonkey wrote:
So my contribution the last couple of days have been lacking but that is comming to an end now. First off, killing Bass purely based on the fact that he is Miller/scum is imo terribad. Saying that we have 50% percent chance of getting scum if we lynch him is simply not true. If we would have this information on the start of D1, then yes, he would have 50% chance of being scum. But this is not the start of D1. Let's consider a very hypothetical scenario:
We know one of player A and player B is town and the other one is scum. player A acts in a town way, and player B doesn't. A confirmed DT says that player A showed as scum in a setup where millers are possible. Would you just lynch player A because of this? No, you wouldn't.
To be completely honest, I haven't done any hardcore analysis of Bass filter. As a matter of fact, it almost seems like noone have done that. So what I ask you guys to do now is to take a VERY close look at his filter and decide what you think. As always, try to do this in an unbiased way.
What I don't want: People who simply puts their vote on Bass ''just because he has 50% chance if flipping scum''.
Come on. In your scenario, detective has no power because whoever he checked out, he would have received "guilty". Lynching either A or B would have equal probability of being scum, exactly 50%, regardless of detective's night report.
Funny thing about scum hunting is that a player who acts scummy are often town and vice versa. In average, we hope that identifying scummy motivations in players' posts would allow us to choose players who are more likely to be scums. But there is a limit. In all my experience of playing scum, so many times I have been wrong lynching a player who I thought was scummiest. I continue to try to improve my scum hunting skills, but I am not confident that I will be able to identify scum 50% of the times in our current scenario.
Regardless, as Hapha and I have previously discussed, it does not matter whether we lynch Bass now or later - as long as we lynch him today or on day 5. Posts like these, however, makes me get this over with and lynch Bass whether or not he is miller.
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On July 12 2012 05:15 Hapahauli wrote:
To add to the above, I'd lynch Mackin and YourHarry (for reasons previously stated) in a heartbeat before we lynch Bass.
I tried to answer your questions. Let me know what questions were unanswered or not satisfied with.
I strongly recommend lynching Bass today. For reasons previously stated. I am willing to repeat these reasons and discuss them further upon requests.
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I also need to repeat that we HAVE to lynch BASS. Either today or Day 5. If you disagree, please state your reasons.
There is literally 50% chance that Bass is scum. If there are outstanding evidence for Bass's townniess, let's even suppose that this chance can go down to 45%. But scum hunting is never this accurate. Not 45% if we have to choose one player out of four or five.
Many of your thought that Zenman was the scum. There was so much "evidence" toward it. You all voted him. Guess what, he's a medic.
Many of you thought that Release was the scum. Again, there was a LOT of "evidence" that he was scum. I voted him. Most of us did.
I still believe scum hunting is useful. It is the one of the means which townies try to achieve victory. While scum hunting is the most common strategy and the only ability available to vanilla towns, but there are other ways to find scum. Stronger. More reliable. One mean include detective's power to check out a player's alignment.
It turns out that his power has been sort of compromised because he unluckily chose either scum or miller. But even with this reduction in power, his power is still considerably stronger. His report, which will be his last, is too strong to go to a waste. We need to lynch Bass. Now or later.
I strongly prefer now, because I think this argument will be forgotten later in the day.
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On July 12 2012 05:47 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 05:28 YourHarry wrote:On July 12 2012 04:11 Lazermonkey wrote:
So my contribution the last couple of days have been lacking but that is comming to an end now. First off, killing Bass purely based on the fact that he is Miller/scum is imo terribad. Saying that we have 50% percent chance of getting scum if we lynch him is simply not true. If we would have this information on the start of D1, then yes, he would have 50% chance of being scum. But this is not the start of D1. Let's consider a very hypothetical scenario:
We know one of player A and player B is town and the other one is scum. player A acts in a town way, and player B doesn't. A confirmed DT says that player A showed as scum in a setup where millers are possible. Would you just lynch player A because of this? No, you wouldn't.
To be completely honest, I haven't done any hardcore analysis of Bass filter. As a matter of fact, it almost seems like noone have done that. So what I ask you guys to do now is to take a VERY close look at his filter and decide what you think. As always, try to do this in an unbiased way.
What I don't want: People who simply puts their vote on Bass ''just because he has 50% chance if flipping scum''. Come on. In your scenario, detective has no power because whoever he checked out, he would have received "guilty". Lynching either A or B would have equal probability of being scum, exactly 50%, regardless of detective's night report. Funny thing about scum hunting is that a player who acts scummy are often town and vice versa. In average, we hope that identifying scummy motivations in players' posts would allow us to choose players who are more likely to be scums. But there is a limit. In all my experience of playing scum, so many times I have been wrong lynching a player who I thought was scummiest. I continue to try to improve my scum hunting skills, but I am not confident that I will be able to identify scum 50% of the times in our current scenario. Regardless, as Hapha and I have previously discussed, it does not matter whether we lynch Bass now or later - as long as we lynch him today or on day 5. Posts like these, however, makes me get this over with and lynch Bass whether or not he is miller. No, this is just plain false. We are playing mafia, not maths. Lynching B is better because he is most likely to be scum while A is most likely to be miller. Whattiwhatti? So basically you are saying people who are playing in a townie way(like Bass for example...) should be lynched because that's how mafia play? This doesn't make any sense at all. Also you say your not confident in scum hunting. Why do you say this? You are voting Bass really fast but yet you say this. Are you afraid that we will be comming after you when Bass flips miller? No, we don't want to lynch Bass at all. It's quite clear to me that he is miller. If you don't agree with this, feel free to point out the scummy things in his filter that I seem to have missed.
What exactly is false about it? We are playing mafia, you are correct. Math can apply to everywhere. Including mafia. We don't HAVE to use what we know about math, but if applying what we know about math can help us win, then we should.
I am not saying that people who act townie should be lynched. I said there is a limit to how much scum hunting can help us. Yes, I voted Bass because he was checked out "red". I was not voting Bass because my scum hunting told me that I think Bass is mafia.
If I was afraid that you guys will come after me when Bass flips miller, then I would have voiced my opinion that we should ignore what the detective has told us and continue scum hunting as if we didn't know that information.
How is it quite clear that he is a miller. Was it clear to you that ZenMan was a scum until he confessed medic? Was it clear to you that Release was scum?
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On July 12 2012 06:05 Hapahauli wrote:
First of all, calling it a 50% chance to lynch Bass is inherently fallicious. There's either a 100% chance he's scum, or a 100% chance he's miller. Calling it 50% is a vast oversimplification of the situation.
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It is not fallacious at all. Our mod knows for sure whether Bass is scum or miller. From his perspective, Bass is either 100% scum or 100% miller.
From our perspective, 50% of the time he is miller. Other 50% of the time he is a scum. That is, if we were to lynch Bass today, we have 50% chance of winning. This, you agreed with. And of course, I wasn't saying that Bass is half miller and half scum. You know that.
Before I continue to respond to everyone's reply, I want to ask you one thing. You guys are saying that 50% does not matter. The probability does not matter. Lazer is arguing that this is "not math".
What if there were 3 scums left and 1 miller left? And detective's "guilty" report implied 75% chance of Bass flipping scum. Would you still ignore what implications of detective's finding? What if it was 90%? Somehow, I am afraid that I will continue to hear lazer argue that "90% doesn't matter. we should still find someone who is scummy".
A player can be scummy for many reasons. Scuminess encrypted in his responses is what you guys are going after. But a player can also be scummy because he received a "guilty" report from the detective.
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On July 12 2012 06:05 Hapahauli wrote:
Do you really think there aren't more suspicious players than Bass? Who is your strongest scumread?
I only have 4 choices.
I do find Makin not really participating suspicious. I would think that the scum, when it was 1 vs. 10, would have been very discouraged to continue playing, which explains lack of post. He also was around night time, because he admitted that he thought he made a post during night. He however did not make a post. This confusion could have arised from his experience of PMing with the mod about the game during night. Plus our mod's refusal to modkill him. I should know better that this is a null tell - from mod's killing the godfather - but can't stop it from lingering in my head.
And I wouldn't do this - for the spirit of the game - but if I really wanted to win and was about to get lynched, I may attempt to try to get modkilled so that townies get additional chance at lynching. 
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On July 12 2012 07:31 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 07:23 Evulrabbitz wrote:
Well at least we are on the same page then. I fail to see how you can find that post beneficial but regardless, I just wanted to know if you thought I called you post bullshit or you thought I called Lazer's bullshit Ok good - I'll clear up my thoughts on his post. Lazer brings up some pretty good/suspicious points about YourHarry's post: 1) There's no reason a townie should ever discourage analysis EVER. Even if his justiciation was to push the Bass lynch, this is still incredibly suspicious. 2) Lazer attacks YourHarry's logic about Bass - as previously stated, lynching Bass solely on his guilty check, especially in light of his pro-town behavior - is just stuipd. There's even more in that post that Lazer didn't even mention, but him calling attention to a suspicious post is far from "bullshit."
I underlined the point that I wanted to respond to above.
What exactly is stupid about it. Can you put it in logical format? Keep in mind that our goal is to win. What if Evul's check on Bass meant that Bass is 90% scum. Should we still ignore that.
And I was not trying to discourage analysis. I simply admitted that its powers are limited, as we already know from our attempts at mislynches. If you re-read what I typed or quote me, this should be clear. If not, it's my fault. I am not trying to discourage analysis.
And why would scum Harry insist lynching Bass? Especially when it became apparent that people's do not like my supporting the idea of lynching Bass based on his guilty report, what exactly does scum Harry have to gain by continuing to insist this.
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On July 12 2012 07:48 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 07:27 YourHarry wrote:
--SNIP--
Before I continue to respond to everyone's reply, I want to ask you one thing. You guys are saying that 50% does not matter. The probability does not matter. Lazer is arguing that this is "not math".
What if there were 3 scums left and 1 miller left? And detective's "guilty" report implied 75% chance of Bass flipping scum. Would you still ignore what implications of detective's finding? What if it was 90%? Somehow, I am afraid that I will continue to hear lazer argue that "90% doesn't matter. we should still find someone who is scummy".
A player can be scummy for many reasons. Scuminess encrypted in his responses is what you guys are going after. But a player can also be scummy because he received a "guilty" report from the detective. If someone has behaving the exact opposite of scummy, I'm not going to vote him/her, simple. Throwing out unrealistic percentages does nothing to justify Bass's Lynch. You want to lynch Bass? Come up with a case against him. Find something suspicious, build a case, and we'll listen to you. If you can't, there's no way in hell I'll lynch him.
I threw in the unrealistic percentage to make a point that it is all about the probability. If it was a fact that player X had 90% chance of being scum, would you lynch him if he acted townie all game? The answer should be yes, because scum hunting is reliable 90% of the time.
Here we are dealing with 50%, not 90%. But this is quantitative, not qualitative, difference. For example, if there were 4 millers in the game, and evul's report implied 20% chance of Bass being scum, then yes I would not think much of it. I would put more eggs in the scum hunting basket. At 50%, it is clear to me at least, what we should do.
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EDBWOP: The answer should be yes, because scum hunting is not reliable 90% of the time. Much less.
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In the absence of miller, detective's "guilty" report would be taken as fact. Because this is 100%. Regardless how townie this player may have acted.
Because there is miller, it is now 50% true. If we can find scums better than 50% of the time, then we should ignore this.
However, if our ability to find scum is significantly lower than 50%, the detective report should override our decisions on who we think are scum.
Whether we can find scum more than 50% of the time could be up for an argument. The rest, really, is not.
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On July 12 2012 08:02 Hapahauli wrote:
We went over this before - in a strictly mathematical perspective, given our assumptions lynching Bass now vs. later makes no difference (75% chance given our set of assumptions). So why is it so clear to you to lynch Bass? It literally doesn't matter when we chose to lynch him, and there's no way in hell I'm going to lynch someone who's acted very pro-town so far.
If it clearly doesn't matter to you, why does it matter if we lynch him today or on day 5?
I explained my reasons why I wanted to lynch Bass now. Because if he survives until day 5, he may get out of it. The concern is that people will forget and let Bass live.
Also, if we agree that Bass WILL be lynched on day 5, our actions are forced on day 5. I rather have the most important decision to be made on the last day, when we have the most information possible. Failing to find scum or miller by day 5 and then auto lynching Bass on day 5 is not appealing to me.
You cited that not saving Bass lynch until the end will provide more discussion. And I thought this also. But actually, there will be same number of days and nights, and same number of players at each night. If anything, if we save Bass lynch until day 5, we will have no function discussion on day 5. On the other hand, even if decide to lynch Bass, we can continue discussing who is scummiest.
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Lazer and hapha. Why would I want to kill Bass now, if I am scum. I ask you this again. There is no reason.
Evul and zenman, please back me on this. Evul, I know that this will be your last day, but do read my previous posts. I feel they will make sense.
Makin........ seriously. Post something.
I can't really ask Bass to do anything else than vote against me, definitely not when he's miller.
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EPT
