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Hapha wrote: I can't follow the logic of you voting for yourself to not force the medic to claim. On top of that, how is lynching yourself (from a VT perspective) pro-town?
At the time, I thought medic not claiming was so important that I determined that it is okay to sacrifice one unconfirmed townie. My reasoning for the importance of medic's anonymity was based on the false assumption that scum would target the medic (scum would actually target DT and tracker). Under this assumption, there is a chance that we may attempt to lynch the medic amongst the unconfirmed townies, who would then have to claim. Scum would then roleblock the medic and NK the tracker. DT can still have a chance to check one person, who most likely will guarantee us the victory, but this still will not be as desirable as scum having to guess the medic to roleblock or NK.
Regarding my lack of analysis on players:
Since the modkill of god father and our successful lynch of mafia rolecop in hopeless, there really hasn't been much motivation to scum hunt based on scummy behaviors or actions. The more important thing at that point was to establish an optimal protocols for role-claims and night actions. When the victory seems so obvious, it is easy to lose motivation. We still have all of the power roles intact, and there is only 1 scum amongst 10 total townies. Kudos to you, actually, for persevering to continue your scum hung.
Hapha wrote:The first two points don't give me a strong town read because they're fairly non-controversial/non-original issues. Multiple people in the town were posting similar ideas, and its not like Mafia would give bad advice on blues in the first place.
When you first proposed power roles claiming, no one else has brought up the idea of medic claiming vanilla until needed to. Sure, you can say it's non-controversial and maybe scum Harry predicted someone else would try to stop the medic from claiming.
And when I attempted to tell the power roles to claim one at a time, again no one else had brought up the idea. And sure, you can again say that it is common practice and common sense to avoid claiming until required to. Yet, these kind of reasoning can be applied to dismiss almost any pro-town actions.
For example, you consistently pushed for hopeless lynch even as others expressed doubts. You did not waver once. Simple argument would be that you did your job as a townie correctly to lynch the scum. Same reasoning as above can be applied to dismiss your actions as something a scum would do win townie points.
As far as my possibility of scum Harry not roleblocking anyone and deciding not to claim "roleblocked": it is not an action that I would take as a scum. Asking people to claim "roleblocked" may indeed win me some town points. But at the time, the scum's hope of winning is so bleak, winning some town points is almost futile. However, claiming "roleblocked" would have provided scum Harry with some decent chance of being cleared. It would simply be a sub-optimal play for scum Harry to choose not to claim "roleblocked".
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I will respond to Bass's accusation regarding me later, if I am still alive. But it doesn't really matter to tracker whether he targets who he think is most likely mafia (except for very unlikely scenario). I guess it may matter to DT a little bit, because arguably this may reduce his chance of targeting the miller.
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I assume you were roleblocked.
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Unconfirmed:
BassinSpace
Mackin
Lazermonkey
Hapahauli
YourHarry
Confirmed:
The_Zen_Man (Medic)
EvulRabbitz (Detective)
JingleHell (Vanilla)
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Why weren't you roleblocked?
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Dayum. I thought miller could have been dead.
Oh well, then probability of BassinSpace being scum is exactly 50%.
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Still, we have to lynch him.
##Vote BassinSpace
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Zenman, were you roleblocked?
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Marvellosity, mafia roleblocker can send in two night actions, correct? Roleblock AND NK? If so, he can target two different players, one for each action?
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Agreed, BassInSpace must be lynched. If he is miller, that's just too bad.
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First, I do not believe that no matter how much we tried, we would be able to find the scum 50% of the time.
Second, if we let BassInSpace live, it would cause so much distraction later in the day. In fact, this would be exactly what the scum wants. Imagine scum and bassinspace to make it to LYLO! This is especially the case since medic and detective are completely useless now. We HAVE to stick with this report. If he's miller, then so be it.
This does not mean we should stop discussing who is scummy. In fact, this game just got a lot more interesting but I want to fast forward time to lynch Bass to see what happens.
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If Bass is miller, you will die.
Though I still don't understand why the hell scum didn't roleblock you. I guess he took the "safe" way of roleblocking the medic and killing one of you. Scum is lucky if you happened to check out the miller. Anyone else, even a vanilla townie, would have given us the victory.
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On July 11 2012 11:18 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On July 11 2012 10:59 YourHarry wrote:
First, I do not believe that no matter how much we tried, we would be able to find the scum 50% of the time.
Second, if we let BassInSpace live, it would cause so much distraction later in the day. In fact, this would be exactly what the scum wants. Imagine scum and bassinspace to make it to LYLO! This is especially the case since medic and detective are completely useless now. We HAVE to stick with this report. If he's miller, then so be it.
This does not mean we should stop discussing who is scummy. In fact, this game just got a lot more interesting but I want to fast forward time to lynch Bass to see what happens. Listen, I'm all far lynching BassInSpace if he's the scummiest read we have, but it's mind-numbingly stupid to lynch him on hope and prayer. This information just gives us another out when we lynch - we win the game if a guy flips Miller OR Mafia. Lynching someone on a 50% chance is terrible. If we lynch the miller tomorrow or in the subsequent days, we can lynch Bass at a 100% chance.
Even when you are scum hunting, you are doing some of that "hoping" and "praying" also. Analyzing cases, we gather evidence on why someone is more "likely" scum. And we lynch the player we think has the highest probability of being scum. We should do that, but not when the information is available to us that a will flip scum 50% of the time. Here and now, we must take that chance. It is our responsibility.
I will start scum hunting more. I was guilty of not putting in the effort yesterday. But today, even if I decide that someone else was more scummy than Bass based on his previous actions, unless the evidence is overwhelmingly obvious (>50%), I will have to vote Bass.
We can still scum-hunt. But please. We must lynch Bass because, if he is the miller, he will cause much distraction later in the game. He could try his best to defend himself, but it would be too late. He would be playing for the scum team.
Tomorrow, we HAVE to rely on our scum hunting skills. We will all be alive tomorrow, except for Bass and Evul. If the game must continue, we will take what we are given - that we got unlucky in having to lynch the miller in Bass - and we will analyze the hell out of this game. We will read, re-read, and triple read. It will be fun.
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EDBWOP: "but not when the information is available to us that a player will flip scum 50% of the time."
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Good analysis. Did not think about it this way, but I think your math may not be correct in the second scenario. We are basically assuming we will not lynch Bass today. So there is only one player we can lynch that will give us instant win. I pasted your analysis and bolded the corrections:
Situation 2, we lynch bass D5 after two days of lynching other scummy players:
1/5 chance of lynching miller or mafia D3 (20% chance of victory)
4/5 chance of lynching townie
1/4 chance of lynching miller or mafia D4 (1/4 of 80% = 20%)
Lynch Bass in LYLO for 50% chance of mafia flip (50% of 20% = 10%)
50% chance of victory
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I think my math has to be wrong somewhere, because 50% is the bare minimum probability of victory if we lynch Bass at any time.
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Oh I realized my mistake. EBWOP:
Situation 2, we lynch bass D5 after two days of lynching other scummy players:
1/4 chance of lynching miller or mafia D3 (25% chance of victory)
3/4 chance of lynching townie
1/3 chance of lynching miller or mafia D4 (1/3 of 75% = 25%)
Lynch Bass in LYLO for 50% chance of mafia flip (50% of 50% = 25%)
75% chance of victory
Lol, so it makes no difference.
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EPT
