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On July 09 2012 08:12 Release wrote:
actually, never mind. Evul could easily be target for scum in that case, although the scum could just RB evul anyways.
We should all realize that tracker is as strong as detective in our current state, unless miller is targeted. If miller, unfortunately, is targeted, tracker is much stronger than detective.
So tracker > detective.
Here is the scum's strategy: he will RB detective and night kill tracker. Or he will RB tracker and night kill detective.
And this is why medic should randomly pick either detective or tracker to protect. Publicizing medic's night action will allow scum to ensure that townies do not get any additional information on Day 3.
So I take back what I said. Medic outing right now is not that bad. In fact, it will prevent the risk of tracker or detective from wasting their night action on medic.
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On July 09 2012 07:47 JingleHell wrote:
Evul, I did mention that it was absurd to think otherwise. I was just reminding people that we should still be willing to at least consider possibilities, just in case the wool actually is being pulled over our eyes.
FOR SURE, evul is detective and
FOR SURE, JieXian is the tracker.
Even ignoring the JieXian's confirmation that evul did target Jingle during night 1, scums will for sure lose if they claim power role. This is reason #1 why they are confirmed power roles.
Also, if they are not the scums, the actual power roles MUST claim today. Considering the possibility that they are not detective or tracker is BAD. Such consideration would provide the scum with the way out by countering one of these power roles later in the day. So please, do not consider those possibilities later in the day unless someone counters either one of them TODAY.
Also nurse MUST claim at least by Day 4. Nurse going unclaimed until the final Day 5 would be DISASTROUS.
Unless someone counters today, following MUST be taken as facts for the rest of the day:
EVUL IS DETECTIVE
JIEXIAN IS TRACKER
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I am OK with Zenman lynch or Release lynch, BTW.
But I repeat for the third time: PLEASE CLAIM IF YOU WERE ROLEBLOCKED.
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On July 09 2012 14:10 JieXian wrote:
So I'll track Hapa and Evul will track Zen
OR WILL WE?
There is nothing wrong with revealing who you are going to target, because
1) Any additional confirmed townie = 100% victory. Any information = perfect information, as long as detective does not target miller.
2) Scum can't lynch one of the unconfirmed townies, because that = 100% town victory
So scum must kill detective, tracker, or jingle. He could try to NK the nurse if he's daring, but if he gets it wrong = GG
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Haha just doing my thing you know
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If ZenMan is lying, the medic should COUNTER CLAIM TODAY
And medic will not be targeted to be NK'ed tonight. It would be a mistake for scum to do so. So you should expect to live. Anyway, medic claiming doesn't matter. Just protect tracker or detective.
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On July 10 2012 06:36 Mackin wrote:
probably should put this in: ** Change the above to:
##unvote
Vote Release
I think you technically unvoted there.
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DT and Tracker should publicize who they are investigating. At this stage, we just need one additional confirmed townie for victory. Even if DT publicized that he will investigate X, who turns out to be scum, and tracker publicizes that he will investigate Y, a vanilla townie, scum cannot gain additional advantage.
Scum will RB either DT or tracker and NK the other. Medic will randomly target DT or the NK. He either gets lucky and townies get no information, or he gets unlucky and our win becomes the certainty.
The advantage is publicizing who they are investigating simply lies in the fact that it will prevent DT and tracker to target the miller at the same time. It is possible that miller is already dead or will die tonight. But otherwise, we want to make sure that he won't be targeted by both DT and tracker. As long as we ensure this, and if scum picks the wrong combination of RB/NK target, then our victory is guaranteed.
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EBWOP: *Medic will randomly target DT or the tracker"
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Yes, regular townies do receive PM notification for roleblocked.
THis is why I have been asking for whoever got roleblocked. No one responded, so it's probably TMG who got roleblocked AND NK'ed. Or scum just forgot to roleblock? lol
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Time machine: ##SKIP 1 HOUR
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To make it interesting, we should lynch DT tonight and tracker tomorrow.
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At least, we should petition marvellosity to upgrade our scum to Godfather Roleblocker
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I am sad that this game will probably be over. Should sign up for a new game.
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DT and tracker should target two different people. Doesn't matter who.
Nurse should obviously protect DT or tracker.
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On July 10 2012 09:16 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On July 10 2012 08:35 YourHarry wrote:The advantage is publicizing who they are investigating simply lies in the fact that it will prevent DT and tracker to target the miller at the same time. It is possible that miller is already dead or will die tonight. But otherwise, we want to make sure that he won't be targeted by both DT and tracker. As long as we ensure this, and if scum picks the wrong combination of RB/NK target, then our victory is guaranteed. How does publicizing who you are going to check prevent us from not getting the miller? Scums will AT LEAST kill/RB one of Jiexian and Evul. Probebly both. So we will most likely not get more than one read anyway.
We either get two reads, or 0 read.
If we get two reads, we win; unless both reads pointed to the same player who turned out to be the miller.
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Ya you guys are right. It doesn't matter.
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On July 10 2012 13:04 Hapahauli wrote:
YourHarry -
- Votes for Hopeless, "Hopeless is flailing, kill it with fire" (right before I post my formal case)
- Half a day later, unvotes Hopeless and votes for TMG. This is after Hopeless posted his defense, and two votes were placed on Lazermonkey (lazermonkey is leading 2-1). Furthermore, this is not too long after JieXian reads Hopeless's defense, is "convinced," and switches votes from Hopeless to Lazer
- 1 minute after TMG vote, posts that "JieXian and Hopeless are prob town" with no reasoning.
- A few minutes later, posts: "Guys, go after TMG. I will take responsibility, if mislynch. :D "
- With 4 hours to lynch deadline, asks Lazer to declare if he's blue (Lazer is leading 4-3 in vote total)
- Posts that he will re-evaluate my case against Hopeless after I get into a huge argument with Jingle over the D1 lynch. Also states that he is "OK" with the Lazer lynch on the basis that Lazer claimed townie. Also posted that he'd try to find a better target if possible.
- Votes Hopeless a couple of minutes later (ties the vote 4-4 with Lazer set to get lynched).
So I ask YourHarry to explain his actions before the D1 lynch deadline. His vote pattern follows the strengthening/weakening of the lynch-Hopeless movement on Day 1. In addition, his vote on TMG has almost no reasoning behind it.
Sure, I will try my best. When I initially voted for hopeless, I believe my post was sandwiched between your three long posts accusing Hopeless. Actually I remember finding your arguments somewhat interesting. They were so long and had bunch of links, etc, but I was not quite convinced by it. My voting on hopeless and "kill it with fire" trolling was more to pressure hopeless to see how he would respond. Your meta argument that came after my vote was more convincing than the first two that came before my vote.
Still, I thought hopeless defended himself well (although turned out that he was scum) and I removed my vote. I recall someone else also removing his vote from Hopeless. This should actually make me more suspicious because, now knowing that hopeless is scum, me being his scum partner would have had easier time unvoting my partner hopeless when others are also unvoting him. With this, I have no defense but to say that it was based on my change in belief that hopeless was town. And if you ask me what about hopeless defense was convincing, it would be difficult for me to answer. My decision was based on overall feel of the defense. No one else does that? 
I did provide a reason for for voting TMG, though the reason may have sounded stupid. TMG expressed his intimidation to play the game of mafia in a foreign language:
[B]TMG wrote
So basically you guys are acusing me based on my heplessness and the lack of new content in my post... Ok, its my very first game here, and i only played mafia twice on a totally different community and on a different language, so its a litle bit natural to me to be a litle bit "scared"
I guess I did not quite buy that he would be a bit "scared." He was either lying or he was not. If he was lying to defend himself, it would make him a likely scum. Townies sometimes lie to when defending or accusing someone, but I think in average, scums are more likely to lie in their defense. And if he was not lying, and if he was actually scared, I reasoned that he was likely scum. I am usually only nervous when playing scum in real life and to a lesser degree on the forums. I am never nervous as a townie. You may ask "Well, if a scum is actually scared, why would he actually say that he is scared?" Well, I have done something similar. When I am scum and get nervous and scared. at least partially being able to express the truth about my being scared can help me sound more genuine and help me come across as more genuine - allowing me deceive others that I am town. But maybe now I am just arguing for the argument's sake. I just thought TMG was scum. And when you don't have a strong read in anyone else (and I didn't at the time), it takes something small like this to convince yourself.
Overall, Hapha, I think, for you to have a reasonable ground to accuse me, there should have been a motive for me to choose TMG over lazer. I could have easily fabricated reasons to hop on lazer badnwagon instead of providing seemingly stupid (but personally genuine) reasons to go after TMG, whose wagon was much more difficult to complete. And since we know that lazer and I both cannot be scums, there is no logical reason for me to insist on TMG lynch over lazer lynch. Scum Harry simply would not have cared between TMG or lazer mislynch (lazer is town assuming I am scum).
My reason for asking lazer to claim was based on lazer's initial post. His first post made me think that he was likely a power role. I was wrong, but my effort to not disclose this information until lazer was projected to be lynched should award me some townie points. If I was scum, hoping that lazer's first post hinted likely power role, I would have kept quiet and chose lazer over TMG or hopeless. And ultimately, I did choose lynch hopeless over lazer in the end. And while my vote only tied lazer vs. hopeless vote, given that it was made hours before the deadline where more votes were sure to come, it is hard to disagree that my vote was projected to make a difference. In addition, my previous posts outlining my lack of certainty for either lazer or hopeless lynch, I could have easily chose lazer and avoided suspicion. And as you mentioned, I even expressed that lazer was probably not the worst lynch after lazer's claim that he was not a power role. Yet, I still voted hopeless.
And while my post analyzing my town and scum reads LINK I have included TMG as one of the townies, whom I suspected on day 1. This should make me suspicious, especially with TMG NK'ed on night 1. I don't have a good excuse for it, but no matter how you look at it, TMG voting for hopeless did make him strong townie.
Here are some reasons you should think I am probably a town:
- I prevented from medic from claiming, initially. Right now, actually, I don't think medic claiming makes much of a difference, but the fact that I thought about the different strategies to maximize town victory should provide reasons for you to believe my townness.
- I also strongly pushed for two claim phase, so that the power roles would not claim unless they provided additional information would be provided.
- I insisted many times for whoever got roleblocked to claim. If I was a scum, knowing that I either did not roleblock anyone or roleblocked TMG, I would have fake-claimed roleblocked. Considering I was the one who posited the possibility of scum skipping roleblock to claim roleblock, it would have been a rather safe way to be cleared - especially when the current state of the game so unfavorable to scum. Scum Harry would have claimed roleblocked.
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EPT
