EPT
Newbie Mini Mafia XX - Page 10
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 13 2012 10:44 marvellosity wrote: Yeah, I hadn't realised that a green check would be so good for town. Problem is if he doesn't roleblock medic then tracker/dt might get saved tracker getting a negative result is effectively the same as a green check, so... Ya, he had to take a chance and RB tracker and NK DT, or vice versa. Half of the times, he should be able to kill DT and RB tracker. Other half of the times, he will lose his NK and townies would get one investigation. But taking this chance, I think, would have been better than ensuring tracker NK and one guaranteed investigation. In fact, evul should have checked whoever is least scummy (rather than most scummy), since he doesn't want to get a guilty report. Maybe he thought Bass was least scummy, I dunno. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
It has been mentioned several times, I think, including in my post that clarified tracker was stronger than the detective. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
You made the right choice role blocking the medic and NKing gthe tracker. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Probability of scum win if RB medic and NK the tracker: 1/5 of the time, DT will check out the miller. And in this situation, as we established during the game, there is 25% chance of scum win. 1/5 of the time DT will check out the scum. Assuming people are reasonable and lynch miller/scum possibility, there is 0% chance of scum win. 3/5 of the time, DT will check out vanilla townie. There is 3/4*2/3*1/2 probability of scum win. 25%. So overall, by RBing the medic, scum had 1/5*.25 + 3/5*.25 = 20% chance of winning. Not bad. Maybe you did the right thing. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
 But a correction.1/5 of the time, DT will check out the miller. In this situation, there is 3/4 * 2/3 = 50% chance of winning. So overall, you had 25% chance of winning. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
50% of the times, you would instantly lose (if you get it wrong). 50% of the time, you would get it right and town will get no info and scum gets a NK. This way you had: 4/5 * 3/4 * 2/3 = 0.4. So you had 20% chance of winning. So you DID the right thing Good job. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
I made two stupid mistakes this game that went unnoticed most of the time: 1. Thinking that town check = instant win 2. Thinking that RBing DT and NKing the Tracker (or vice versa) is better strategy. Actually #2 depended on #1... | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 13 2012 23:08 Evulrabbitz wrote: People have repeatedly been saying that my read on you was stupid and I should have gone for townie reads. I don't see why. JieXian said it was stupid, for a different reason I think. I was wondering if you thought Bass was town. I never called it stupid But I was wrong anyway.If you ended up investigating a townie, instead of a scum, then our probability of winning would have been: 1 - (3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2) = 75% Of course, investigating the scum (and assuming that everyone is reasonable enough to lynch whoever is reported to be "red), means that we would win 100% of the time. Although we almost didn't lynch your target So perfect job on the investigation. It guaranteed us the victory. At least, should have, in every situation. | ||
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