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On July 03 2012 00:04 Fencar wrote:You know what, I give up. I'm done.After my initial mistakes, everything I try to do is now banging my head against the wall. 
you know what? You are scum. You just don't want to give us anything. If Fencar doesn't come back I would urge everyone to vote for him, I have seen games where scum just up and left when there was a FoS on them and waited it out as town faught amongst themselves until someone else was on the chopping block. Lurking while being FoS'd is scummy.
On July 03 2012 00:13 AmericanUmlaut wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2012 23:35 Promethelax wrote:
The three people that JH was looking at as scum before he died were Hopeless, Fencar and Myles. I'm pretty confident that JH was killed for a reason and at least one of them is scum but probably two, just based on a numbers game. The one I am most sure of is Fencar and his new post where he hides the cases against him only reenforces that idea to me. I've been going through Myles's filter and JH's posts regarding him, and I'm not convinced by JH's read on him. I think he got an early whiff of something scummy when Myles me-tooed a bit too hard early on and then read the rest of Myles's play with a hefty dose of confirmation bias. When I try to read through Myles's filter with my BotD glasses on, though, he comes across as just someone who's getting used to the game and didn't play day 1 great. Nothing about his play really smells of PBU to me. Does anyone else have thoughts on this? I'm not saying Myles is 100% town, but I don't think that we should give JH's reads too much weight just because he's been martyred.
That seems like a reasonable explanation for his behaviour. I'm still keeping my eye on him but for the moment at least I'll move him into the very light red part of my spread sheet.
@Myles I'm keeping my eye on you, pick up your game and prove you are town. Make some good cases and show me you are one of us. Right now you are more or less null which isn't a good place to be, I'll try to look at you with a totally open mind though.
On July 03 2012 00:24 Myles wrote:
Snippy snippy-
So for now, this is my list of most suspicious from highest to lowest:
Intact
Fencer
Bob
Could be town or not:
Hopeless
iamperfection
blind-rawr
Looks like town:
Promethelax
AmericanUmlaut
And was no one really watching JH despite being a pretty obvious target? Are we going to get anything at all to go off of? And where's our damn replacement?
As to this I think you are being a little silly, we don't know what roles we have. We might not have a watcher or, even if we do they might have watched me. JH and I were the two obvious targets, its like saying that if we had a medic he should have saved JH; in hindsight that is true but in reality he might have protected me and been totally justified in it. I expect to be hit tonight anyway.
The role I most want us to have is dt, I want to know his reads on people as I would love to have a confirmed town or scum.
@Everyone: if you were dt who would you have checked last night? As I already said I would have checked Umlat since I was most null on him and a lot of my reads would be clearer if I knew which side of the line he fell on. His game has really stepped up today though so it would be someone else tomorrow night.
I would switch Hopeless and Bob in your reasoning and add you to the null reads; Umlat is the towniest of the null reads and bob/myles the scummiest. My one really good townie red died n1. I hope someone steps up to fill his shoes.
Oh, I see Umlat agrees with me:
On July 03 2012 00:30 AmericanUmlaut wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 00:28 AmericanUmlaut wrote:On July 03 2012 00:24 Myles wrote:Where are the lurkers? We've been questioning them since last the night first fell, and yet there's been 1 post by intact(about how his internet 'died', 1 post by iamperfection(no read, but talking about Fencer's trigger happy voting), and 2 posts by blind-rawr(1 about regret on the mislynch, the other to defend himself from Hopeless). If you guys are townies you need to start posting like it with some reads, reasoning, or something. Bob has also started posting a bit, but hasn't said anything too relevant except for the one summary post where his only read other than 'uh, I'm not sure' was on JH and Prom when they probably had the least cause to be suspicious. In his posts sense then only this + Show Spoiler +On July 02 2012 07:24 BobTheLob wrote:
Lets overthink this a bit. JH could have been killed so that he would shut up OR he so that we would be thrown off the trail of the real Scum. So it could be someone he said it was OR the opposite.
(In the same boat with promethelax but with Rum+coke>beer) was his most relvent post, with one other one asking about Fencer's early vote. In all, it really hard to say he's contributed much unique insight at all. About Fencer, I'm still suspicious. His last 'read' in particular was pretty much a rehash of the already summarized lurkers. He made a lengthy post on Prom, who along with Umlaut seem like the most established townie with have left. He also FoS'd on Intact in the same post, based on Anacletus vote, but that seems legit since Intact's posting is quite suspicious. So for now, this is my list of most suspicious from highest to lowest: Intact Fencer Bob Could be town or not: Hopeless iamperfection blind-rawr Looks like town: Promethelax AmericanUmlaut And was no one really watching JH despite being a pretty obvious target? Are we going to get anything at all to go off of? And where's our damn replacement? What is your basis for Bob being more suspect than Hopeless? (By the way, I made a post in the ABL thread about getting a replacement in for Monk, hopefully someone responds soon.) EBWOP: I ask because my read is exactly the other way around. I feel like a scummy read on Bob is largely based on his lack of contributions, whereas Hopeless's actual posts have seemed scummy. In my mind being actively scummy is a louder ping than being passively scummy, and I'm curious about your thought process.
I'm glad someone else is reading the thread and having thoughts about it. I do think there is a scum among the lurkers and I think that Umlat's case on Intact points us towards the most likely candidate. If we are wrong about intact I would follow him with Bob and I have no idea between perfection and Blindy.
I see Myles had reasoning for the Bob v Hopeless thing which is nice. I'm glad he put thought into it at least. Here it is, though I'm sure you've seen it:
On July 03 2012 00:36 Myles wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 00:28 AmericanUmlaut wrote:On July 03 2012 00:24 Myles wrote:Where are the lurkers? We've been questioning them since last the night first fell, and yet there's been 1 post by intact(about how his internet 'died', 1 post by iamperfection(no read, but talking about Fencer's trigger happy voting), and 2 posts by blind-rawr(1 about regret on the mislynch, the other to defend himself from Hopeless). If you guys are townies you need to start posting like it with some reads, reasoning, or something. Bob has also started posting a bit, but hasn't said anything too relevant except for the one summary post where his only read other than 'uh, I'm not sure' was on JH and Prom when they probably had the least cause to be suspicious. In his posts sense then only this + Show Spoiler +On July 02 2012 07:24 BobTheLob wrote:
Lets overthink this a bit. JH could have been killed so that he would shut up OR he so that we would be thrown off the trail of the real Scum. So it could be someone he said it was OR the opposite.
(In the same boat with promethelax but with Rum+coke>beer) was his most relvent post, with one other one asking about Fencer's early vote. In all, it really hard to say he's contributed much unique insight at all. About Fencer, I'm still suspicious. His last 'read' in particular was pretty much a rehash of the already summarized lurkers. He made a lengthy post on Prom, who along with Umlaut seem like the most established townie with have left. He also FoS'd on Intact in the same post, based on Anacletus vote, but that seems legit since Intact's posting is quite suspicious. So for now, this is my list of most suspicious from highest to lowest: Intact Fencer Bob Could be town or not: Hopeless iamperfection blind-rawr Looks like town: Promethelax AmericanUmlaut And was no one really watching JH despite being a pretty obvious target? Are we going to get anything at all to go off of? And where's our damn replacement? What is your basis for Bob being more suspect than Hopeless? (By the way, I made a post in the ABL thread about getting a replacement in for Monk, hopefully someone responds soon.) Bob is flying too low below the radar. Hopeless is iffy due to some of his early reasoning and the quick flip flop on the policy lynch of lurkers, but he's been providing a lot of info and taken a lot of heat while still keeping it up. It makes me a lot more hesitant than bob who has lived off the dumb scared newb label.
Based on that Myles seems a little more townie, congratulations man you are a totally null read now. Make my faith in you justified. Prove yourself town, this is probably the only chance I'll give you to show us that you are green (if you are green) I'm still watching you but I want some real, and awesome, contribution.
Wow:
On July 03 2012 01:04 ghost_403 wrote:
Fencar has officially dropped out and will be (hopefully) replaced.
I, ah, I didn't expect that. I guess that he caved to the pressure. I have heard that playing scum is really stressful I guess it really got to him being found out.
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On July 03 2012 01:41 Myles wrote:
@Prom
If I was DT I would have check Hopeless or myself. We were taking the most heat from people last night and I think it makes sense to be able to confirm/deny the accusations as early as possible. There's too many lurkers to try and take a chance on them, and I'm not sure the heat on Intact started early enough to make a difference. Fencar would be another good choice, but over the night he had also kind of fallen below the radar like Bob due to all the FoS JH was doing, and his scummyness comes more from his posting style than actual scummy stuff he's said(until now at least).
And I know it's possible we don't have a watcher, but given that this is a newb game I would hope the deck didn't get completely stacked against us - that seems like a pretty critical role right under DT and medic. And as much as you and JH were working well together, he was definitely the lead and seemed would be the #1 target for the medic, watcher, and pbu's - assuming we have the first 2. You would have been second, imo, but a pretty clear 2nd.
Fencar dropping out doesn't remove any of my suspicion, either. He did a poor job defending himself, has bandwagoned both votes, then when questions keep coming(as I would think anyone who isn't Prom, and maybe Umlaut, should expect) decides that's he done enough to make up for his initial mistake(which I would argue put him under less suspicion than me or Hopeless, he just kept a lot of the same activities that had people eyeing him before) and is over it. It's not conclusive, but nothing there tells me he is a fed up townsperson who did everything they could to help out.
Thing is, the scum are newbs too so I imagine the roles are balanced. I don't know what roles the scum have so I can't say what roles us having or not having would count as stacked against us.
You are right I might have been the second choice but maybe a medic metagamed himself too hard? Thought that scum would think the same and protected me instead of JH? Or there is no medic or he protected someone totally different based on his own reads. This is a nub game, I'm not going to expect anyone to play their role the way it should be played. There are a lot of reasons for the medic/watcher (if we have one) to do what he did.
On July 03 2012 02:00 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
Okay...
I've got to give the Fencar situation some thought, but regardless of how we decide to read his resignation, I think the most reasonable course to take for now is to consider other possibilities. If there's a chance that he'll be modkilled, then we should be considering other candidates with the intention of returning to his case on day 3 if he is still alive then.
My leaning for tonight's lynch would be Intact, then, based on my current reads. Playing inactive is a less risky role than joining more actively in discussion, which leads me to believe that Intact is the most likely of the three to have an ability. Could some of the rest of you take a look at my case on him?
This seems totally right, if Fencar is going to be Ghost'd to death we shouldn't bother lynching him. If he gets replaced we'll re-open the case and lynch the replacement for being scum.
I would love to hit a red power role since we screwed up so royally and lynched one of our own power roles. Intact seems like a decent choice of lynch, I just lost my scummiest read which is depressing since I'm pretty sure he is red. I don't think it would help us to lynch into Fencar today. We'll save him for tomorrow if he gets replaced and if by some miracle I'm still alive d3 I'll lead the lynch on his replacement happily.
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On July 03 2012 02:01 sciberbia wrote:
Hi guys - just got my role PM. I've barely been following the game and I'm at work atm, but I'll try to read the whole thread tonight. Gonna try to start contributing as soon as possible.
Awesome, welcome to the fold, I hope to hell you are town and know how to contribute to a thread because we desperately need more green aligned people posting regularly. Even if all the scum are lurky just about half of town is too; please be town, or at least make an effort to appear so.
On July 03 2012 02:02 Hopeless1der wrote:@Prom - If I was DT, I would not have investigated bob due to lurkyness. I would not have investigated fencar and intact due to scummyness/bandwagon suspicions. I would not have investigated you or JH for the strong town vibe you gave off. Since Anacletus was the mislynched, I'd have gone after someone who voted for him hoping to find scum. That leaves Blind, iamperfection and Myles. I would probably have gone after Myles for pretty much the same reasons he noted in his post above. iamperfection is still a null read for me, which effectively makes him town since I now have scum reads. BLiND-RawR would have been a close second, and I may well have pmed him as my choice before I developed a scum read on him.
Now that we know Fencar's expiration date, do we try to lynch him today or hope he gets modkilled and if not, lynch tomorrow (This of course assumes we consider him the scummiest person). It seems that if we can pick up a free kill and have the chance to hit other scum, we should do that instead of getting hung up on the Fencar case.To that end, I'd like to push the Intact case, as he's my strongest red read so far, besides Fencar.
Promethelax, who is your strongest read? I assume I'm up there, but a good townie like you wouldn't put all your eggs in one basket, now would he?Hi sciberbia! Not to put you on the spot, but monk didn't give us all the much info. I don't care if you essentially copy our arguments, but I'd like to get your input specifically on myself, Intact and Fencar as we're the scummiest looking players so far. Any further reads you have would be awesome too.
To the bolded: as I said earlier in this post I think we should hold off on Fencar. Lynching into a possible modkill is just silly. So, since he is out I think we should go looking for scum.
To the italics: Unfortunately Fencar was my biggest scum read. I think the next most scummy would be Intact followed by you. Your more recent posts have started to look like a townie finding his feet. I'm trying to give everyone the benefit of the doubt since tunnel vision never helps. I am going to look into Intact more today when I have time but that isn't right now. I hope someone else can build on Umlat's case.
I'm out for a while.
Goodluck townies, screw you scumteam. I hope there will be more analysis waiting for me when I get back.
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Since I've been away you guys haven't done all that much. By which I mean there are literally zero posts between my last one and this one (unless someone posts before I don in which case it has still been over six hours). Remember when we post nothing scum doesn't have to post anything or, to put it another way, when all of town is lurking scum can lurk too and we gain nothing from it.
This is the case on intact as it stands now:
On July 02 2012 20:53 AmericanUmlaut wrote:The lurking PBUThere are currently four posters whose activity levels are low enough that I'd characterize them as lurking: Intact, BobTheLob, Blind-Rawr and iamperfection all have less than a page of posts, which is very little considering the amount of discussion that went on prior to the game actually starting. There are three PBUs. If they are playing intelligently, they will have noticed from the beginning that this game has had a fairly large number of lurkers, and one of them will be chilling among them and doing their best to just scoot by. It's possible that two scum are lurking, but I would guess that the others are among the more active posters because having only a single active community member puts you in a bad position if that player gets lynched; the PBUs lose their ability to manipulate debate, and one of the previous lurkers trying to establish their voice afterward is obviously scummy play. I think that my logic for concluding that at least one of the four low-post players is a PBU is strategically sound. Ideally we would flush them out by getting the other three to start posting more analysis, but I think it's clear at this point that we're going to have to win this with a couple of low-content players amongst us, which means we need to figure out which of the lurkers is most likely our PBU. We have little to go on, but let's take a look at what's available: iamperfection: His posting day 1 was worthless. Since day 2 has begun, he's started to participate, albeit in a very low-key manner. I'd like to see more thought-out posts from him, but I'm leaning toward his being one of the good guys and just unsure of how to play as the game got going. BobTheLob: His posting day 1 was worthless. His posting day 2 is worthless. My read is entirely worthless, because he's not playing. In an environment where everyone was being super productive and he was just posting about how drunk he is, I'd say let Kwark pop him, but I feel like the odds are too good that he's actually just a really awful town player to take that risk. Blind-RawR: Also posting so little actual analysis that it's hard to make any kind of useful read. However, Hopeless1der's case against him is such a stretch that my conclusion is that it's almost certainly a clumsy attempt at provoking another mislynch and that Blind_RawR is thus probably town. Which leaves us with: Intact: Show nested quote +On June 29 2012 20:22 Intact wrote:
I think I saw this type of play in a previous mafia game. Not sure which one though. There were 2 mafia who argued agressivly towards eachother early on. This reminds me of that occasion. This is basically Intact's first move of the game: A vague reference to how maybe JH and Anacletus might both be scum, but presented in such a way that it's easy to distance yourself from later on. I acknowledge that I responded with agreement that this could be a useful bit of analysis if one of them flipped red, but knowing that both were town makes this look like an attempt to get discussion moving toward a mislynch. Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 10:29 Intact wrote:
I'm going to stand by my read as analectus being scum but I have also become very suspicious of promethelax. People may have been bandwagoning analectus but as soon as he got into lynching territory promethelax show up with a long thread pointing out someone else, thereby making some people switch vote. This causes divisions and tensions among the town which is exactly what the scum want. I lean more towards fencer just playing badly and promethelax trying to save his scum partner analectus. I really don't see anything suspicious about Promethelax's case against Fencer. I think I'm not alone when I say that he's around the top of the suspects list at the moment. What about Promethelax's analysis of Fencer's play seemed suspicious? This seems like an attempt to just sow dissent without any real logic behind it. And then comes this brilliant observation: Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 10:48 Intact wrote:
In addition, should we lynch analectus and he turns put to be mafia, it would make it fairly easy to point out the other mafia. And if he turns out to be townie it would be very easy to confirm some townies. Anacletus was, in fact, one of the good guys. We banned him. By what logic are we now able to confirm some townies? This post is just stupid, and to me it stinks of someone who is playing with the full information that a PBU has, and hasn't thought through the logic of the limited information environment that we town players are in enough to fake logical conclusions that sound like they were made by a townie. Summary: Four players (25% of the game population) are posting at barely-there levels, which leads me to conclude that at least one PBU is almost certainly hiding among them. An analysis of the few posts that they have made leads me to conclude that Intact is by far the most suspicious among them. The scumteam I currently have in mind is Intact, hopeless1der and Fencer710. Of the three, I feel the most strongly about Intact and hopeless1der; I feel like Fencer could conceivable be really bad and having a panicky reaction to being suspected. If anyone could help me analyze the way those three have interacted to argue either in favor of or against my hypothesis, I'd really appreciate the help.
To begin with I'm going to throw out umlat's scum team. We need to find one scum at a time and after each flips red we can analyze their interactions with each other. Picking out the team doesn't matter at all, we just need to hit scum one at a time.
So, while I agree with umlat's case I don't feel that it is conclusive, because of this I wnet back to the filters and looked at Intact's single page of posts (seriously, less than a page, if he is town he is playing very porrly based solely on his post count).
Here is his second in game post:
On June 29 2012 08:44 Intact wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2012 08:28 Promethelax wrote:On June 29 2012 08:16 Myles wrote:On June 29 2012 08:12 Intact wrote:
I know it's a bit early to try and make a read, however my short list of possible scum is topped by Myles atm. Primarily because it seems like he wants to promote inactivity. It's a loose read but someone had to get this started. I guess you can call trying to be a little more selective than randomly picking people to start accusing is promoting inactivity, but I was trying to be a little more prudent. The game started 2 hours ago so it seems a bit early to start accusing people. I think Myles is right here, we need to think this through. I'm certainly not opposed to a lurker lynch but if we are going to start targeting a single player it should be for a good reason. Intact, if you think Myles is scummy you should keep a close eye on him and see how he acts see what he does and build a case. We as townies need to work together though we have the deductive power of nine smart (I hope) people on our side, we should try to use that power. Im not claiming he is scum, I'm simply pointing out the observations I've made- And I felt like the ball had to get rolling.
Intact tries to call Myles scum and as soon as I suggest that he commmit to his read he backs off saying that he just felt that he had to get the bandwag- err ball rolling.
his third post is just meaningless spam in which he quotes meaningless spam, sure the first post didn't help us but since he knew that he should have known that his response was anti-town as well. For reference here is his entire third post.+ Show Spoiler +On June 29 2012 10:05 Intact wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2012 09:55 Anacletus wrote:On June 29 2012 09:52 NrGmonk wrote:On June 29 2012 09:46 JingleHell wrote:
What about you, monk? The color of the hammer next to your name trying to tell us something? Hell, if nothing else, and we end up with nobody really screaming "scum", we should totally ban the pants off of the banling, just for irony.
Although, Anacletus, I am going to keep that loose eye on you, and one on Myles. I'm not entirely sure why, but something about your posting is setting off... well, not really alarms, more like having a cell phone on vibrate, but leaving it in your other pair of pants, so that mild buzzing sound. Seems pretty scummy. Telling people to lynch a somewhat arbitrary player when I haven't done anything to arouse suspicion. O_O You seem scummy for calling him scummy. Now this isn't going anywhere..
In one of his few remaining posts he says that he is keeping an eye on Myles, he tries to remain consistent with his earlier reads and save himself from the obvious scumtell that is changing one's mind with no reason.
On June 29 2012 21:37 Intact wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2012 20:30 BLinD-RawR wrote:
yes I do see that their argument seems lacking but that is also because analectus seems be quite uncooperative with Jingle therefore the argument itself seems to be quite pointless.
Intact, any reads so far? My first guess was Myles, however he is no longer on top of the list(although I will keep an eye on him). I'm leaning mostly towards Analectus, his posts contain very little of value and seems more like a way to avoid being branded a lurker. And like I said before I have seen scum play that is similar to what JH and Analectus is doing.
Funnily enough, this is the last time that he mentions Myles. His next post is a simple vote to kill Anacletus which, as we all know now, wasn't the best idea.
Now on to his next post
On June 30 2012 10:29 Intact wrote:
I'm going to stand by my read as analectus being scum but I have also become very suspicious of promethelax. People may have been bandwagoning analectus but as soon as he got into lynching territory promethelax show up with a long thread pointing out someone else, thereby making some people switch vote. This causes divisions and tensions among the town which is exactly what the scum want. I lean more towards fencer just playing badly and promethelax trying to save his scum partner analectus.
He calls me scum for attacking Fencar over Anacletus and tries to convince the thread that I am scummy. He is very suspicious of me for trying to get someone else lynched, broaden the discussion and increase everyone's contributions. Now I can see how playing a good townie game seems scummy to someone so red, as soon as he realizes that his ideas have gained no traction with town he drops them and never again suggests that I am scum. Maybe I am taking this as too much of a scumtell since I know I am town but my win condition involves lynching scum and if his did too he wouldn't be trying to lynch me.
Conveniently as soon as he is FoS'd his internet goes down. As we can see he fails to follow up on his reads and instead follows this post
On July 01 2012 10:23 Intact wrote:
So I see that there is some doubt about me and my posting. I'll try adress that in a couple of hours when I wake up. Just got home from a nightclub so trying to make sense seems like a bad idea right now.
where he promises to contribute with this post
On July 02 2012 09:11 Intact wrote:
Sorry for my inactivity, internet died and It's quite annoying trying to write long texts from my phone. ISP says it will be fixed by tomorrow.
where he gives excuses for not giving his reads.
Too often has scum gotten away with making promises they never plan to fulfill, I say we lynch into Intact, into scum and don't wait around to hear his next excuse for not posting.
I will be voting tomorrow morning before I go to work like I did last time. Hopefully there will be some discussion before that point but if there is not I will be leaving my vote on Intact, I hope the rest of town will follow me in that and lynch into scum.
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First I just want to say how stupidly scummy this post is: this is a guy who has been reading the thread and keeping up wth it but doesn't post until a case on him is made. As soon as his name comes up he is here to tell us his interenet doesn't work. Sure buddy, sure.
On July 03 2012 10:16 Intact wrote:
I've been on the phone with my isp all day, if stuff isnt working soon I will have to ask for replacement. Cant make any serious posts from my cellphone.
Now, onto our newest member and his cases:
Welcome Sciberia! I'm glad to have another guy in here and posting sensibly with you here I feel like we have a decent shot at winning this. We have been down too many players from lurking and needing replacements, I'm glad you are here to actually contribute.
I disagree with your posts on Intact, I still think he looks like the strongest scum read right now. Especially after his obvious lurking and totally useless response to my case on him. I'm glad you are looking at things with a new eye but I just have to disagree with you: Bob and Blind both look scummy but more in a tinged red sort of way. Intact is glaringly bright red and I'm going to go for the guy who is most likely to flip scum. If, somehow, I am wrong, I promise I'll take a much deeper look at Blind-Rawr and Bob both.
I have made my case on Intact and I'll stick to it, I think it is right and since I think that Fencar is scum too I'm not willing to let two scum players lurk in the purgatory of not quite getting mod-killed and ignore them. I truly believe that Intact is scum and have made my case, his defense only adds to my belief that he is red and with the lynch tonight I hope we prove it.
I have to go to work now and won't be back until after the deadline. Good luck.
##Vote: Intact
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Umlat: Feel free to discuss my post and I hope that Sciberia's and yours will also spark some discussion unfortunately I have to go to work and I don't get breaks so I won't be able to contribute until I get home tonight.
Sorry I couldn't have posted that ten minutes earlier so we actually got a chance to discuss it but there it is, if you have anything to say about it I still have about five minutes before I leave for work.
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Just got back from work.
Fuck me! I was so sure for the second time in as many cycles...
I can't believe how many replacements we're getting in this game. I almost won't be ashamed if we lose it with all these players popping in and out. We've lost Blindy, Fencar and Monk to the mod killing: how does that even happen in one game?
Blues, assuming you exist, you need to give us something.
Kiethwhateveri: please give us some reads and thoughts. We had pretty much nothing from the guy you are replacing and what we had seemed scummier than a millpond.
I have to go grocery shopping now but I'll be back around again in this night cycle and I'll make sure to post my reads before the end of it in case I die tonight, I urge the rest of you to do the same. Every townie should post their reads before this cycle ends, we need everyone working to find scum and we need to do it now. We'll probably lose another townie tonight (I'm assuming our medic mis-saves or that we only had a jk) and I'd love to have his/her thoughts before that happens.
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On July 04 2012 06:56 Keirathi wrote:@Promethelax @sciberbia: I will do my best to alleviate suspicions on myself. I just ask that people look for the merit in my posts, rather than being biased because you already have a read on something I had zero control over. I know that's hard to do, but I'll try to be as open as possible. Also: teehee :D
I hope you have something for us soon, I can't believe how dead this thread is.
Sciberbia: who do you have town reads on? I know you have scum reads on Blindy and Bob but I'm wondering about the rest of your reads.
I think you seem town as does Umlaut.
I'm reading null on Myles and iamimperfection. I'm trying to add Kieth to this list in a benefit of the doubt kind of way but nothing Blindy gave us looked town and all Kieth has said is that he will show us that he is totally town, he hasn't done shit since than.
Hopeless is somewhere between my scum reads and my null reads. I'm not quite sure what to say about him really.
Bob (and Blindy but you know...replaced) and Fencar seem scummy to me though I really don't want to try to lynch Fencar since he is totally absent and even if he is mafia he would be the perfect candidate for a bus or if he is town a bandwagon so I don't think we would gain anything from his lynch, I think Bob is the best candidate this cycle though I want to hear more from Kieth (I'm sorry, I have a hard enough time with peoples AKAs who I see post regularly and who have been in this game since the beginning) and if he stays lurky or scummy he might be a better lynch than Bob.
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Sorry I don't have more time to post, I'm sure you all are tired of hearing it by now but I have to go to work.
Kieth: thanks for coming in with reads, it is too bad your biggest scum read is me though since I kno you are wrong about it. Hopefully you'll check out the other guys high on your list and figure out what is really up.
I'm going to lay out my ten second defense so that you don't waste the whole day going after me and instead hunt real scum.
First off this post explains pretty well why I switched votes from Fencar to Anacletus:
On June 30 2012 22:19 Promethelax wrote:
Well this is obnoxious, I think Anaacletus is scummy but I think Fencer is more scummy, however I will be at work when the voting ends and this is my last minute in this thread for this day cycle, since I think a no lynch is really bad for us I am going to switch my vote to Anacletus, I hope that if he flips town you all will look at my Fencer case, he really does look more scummy to me.
I'm putting the hammer on Anacletus because we need a lynch and I won't be here to convince people that we should get Fencer, I would leave my vote on Fencer if I thought I could make the rest of you realize that he is scum but since you seem to want to go for the second reddest person I will do that as well to ensure a lynch.
I hope that if we are wrong and Anacletus is town you will all take a second look at my case on Fencer, if Anacletus is town Fencer is even more likely to be scum.
@Intact: If Anacletus flips scum and you feel the need to go after me I can't stop you, you should go after Fencer but if you don't do that you should go after him on day three after I flip green (all this assuming I live through the next two nights which I probably won't without medic protection).
##Unvote: Fencer710
##Vote: Anacletus
Is there any way to make sure I don't have to do this in the future since I won't be around for the voting deadline? i.e. would it be possible to PM one of you to say my preferences in terms of my vote. That a lynch is better than a no lynch and a lynch on Fenccer is better than a lynch on Anacletus and so on. I want my vote to count but I also have to make it about 12 hours before the deadline which really messes with me, thanks.
I think that is pretty obviously a good reason to switch votes. I was sure that Fencar would flip red (I still am sure of that) but since no one would follow me on that lynch I had to switch my vote, the timing of my work is pretty awful for this game.
As to Fencar, you will note that most of my posts still talk about him, I still think that he is scum. I continued to pressure him and would have voted him but he dropped out, the only thing I posted about him that suggested that I wasn't still thinking of him as my top target was a drunk post I made when I said I was only watching him a little.
I kept the pressure on and posted about why he was scum right before he dropped out of the game. I didn't follow up my Fencar is 99% scum if Anacletus is town because I didn't have anything to add to it; I had a case to build on his actions which I felt showed that so I didn't have to repeat my assertion (which I still believe to be true) that that flip reenforces Fencar as red.
In my first post after Fencars replacement I said “This seems totally right, if Fencar is going to be Ghost'd to death we shouldn't bother lynching him. If he gets replaced we'll re-open the case and lynch the replacement for being scum.”
That is my reasoning for dropping the case for the time being, if you had replaced Fencar believe me I would have opened that can of worms right up. Because he is on the verge of a mod-kill I don't believe it is useful to go after him, I also don't like attacking people who can't respond since than, even if they are town, we gain nothing from their lynch.
So after I lost my main red read to the ether I looked around again to find the next reddest guy, there were solid cases on Intact that had been made by other people and I am more confidant about being able to discuss a case than that the ones I build are 100% right. Intact seemed scummy, acted scummy, didn't contribute and seemed like he would have a good chance of being lynched. Again my work schedule means I have to vote about 10 hours before the deadline which throws me off some.
As to that scum-slip, yeah, no. One was dead by that point and the other was my biggest townie read. I should have worded it differently but I didn't.
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Okay, clearly Keirathi thinks I am scum and a reasonable and well thought out response doesn't change his mind. I am not going to bother to defend myself against this since Kier won't listen to reason. If he is going to force everyone to mislynch me I want to get as many of my reads and the reasons for them into the thread so that when I flip green you townies will have more to work with, assuming that a medic protects someone tonight! Come on medic no one will look down on you for batting .333.
So, Keir, if you have anything that you want me to respond to ask me directly. If you just want to suggest that I am scum for no good reason I'm not going to bother to respond. We won't gain anything by me shitting up the thread with my defense so I'm going to give you solid reads instead, if you are town I hope you'll realize that I am too; if you aren't I don't really care what you think. If you really have read my filter so closely I would expect you to have realized that I am not red.
So first: my scum reads.
I am leaving Fencar out of this because he has been replaced but I still think he is probably scum and I hope that we all give his replacement a cold hard look.
Blind-Rawr, now Keir, is scum. I never really thought that Blindy was was defiantly scum, or more accurately I never looked at him because there was nothing to look at. His filter is...ten posts long after the start of the game until the point where he was replaced. He never gave us a single read and he could have either been new at town or at scum. He seemed scummy by virtue of his lurking and his lack of reads but he was never my scummiest read and I never followed through on looking into him really.
The thing is as soon as he was replaced we got an active player with grandiose reads covering everyone in the thread. He came in here and told us to ignore the scummy vibe everyone had on Blindy and to totally pay attention to his reads. His reads that put me on the top of a scum list. Now like the reast of you, barring scum and dt if we have one, I have a total of one mod-confirmed townie alive in this game. That townie is me and I feel like I have done a good job in that role to work for town and to find mafia, this is reflected in the town read that everyone had on me until Kierth came into the thread, until he showed up no one thought I was mafia and I don't believe that anyone does now. Every townie in this game has a town read on me because of my behaviour. Keir says it is because of how much I post. My filter is three pages long. Count 'em. You know who else has a three page filter? Statistically speaking you do. Myles is on three pages, so is Umlaut, and Hopeless is as well. JH has four pages and he died n1. Lurkers like Bob, Iamimperfection and even Anacletus have two page filters. So why does Kier attack me with this facitius reason? I can't think of any reason for town to distort the facts like this; I can think of a reason for scum to do it though, they want me dead.
There has to be a reason that scum killed Sciberbia and not me since we were the most active and the guys who were most well thought of as green. I assume everyone else had a town read on Sciberbia since I did. The only reason I can think of is that I had more of a filter and therefore more things that could be called scummy by scum players or that Sciberbia had better scum reads than me. I wasn't sure that Blindy was scum but Sciberbia sure thought so, you can tell by the way he voted for him:
On July 03 2012 14:48 sciberbia wrote:
Okay it is just about time for me to call it a day.
I quickly read through the filters of Hopeless1der and Fencar. On first read, Fencar actually looks townie to me. I would really not like to lynch him today, and I hope he is not modkilled.
I'm not so sure about Hopeless1der. He looks scummy for the first half of his filter, and then it's like he turns on a switch and starts posting some good analysis on Intact and others. I want to see more from him and don't think he's a good lynch today.
Who I think we should lynch today
Fencar and Intact seem to be the popular targets.
My cursory opinion is that Fencar is town. Also, he is getting modkilled/replaced. I'd really not like to lynch him today.
I think Intact might be scum, but I'm not convinced. I think we have better targets, and I'd not like to lynch Intact today.
As I've said, both BobTheLob and BLinD-RawR look quite scummy to me. I'd be shocked if neither was scum and wouldn't be surprised if both are scum. I feel strongly that we should lynch one of these two today. I feel stronger about BLinD-Rawr.
My schedule
I'm going to sleep now, and then I'll be at work from the time I get up through the deadline. So I can't do any more significant reading or posting until after the lynch. I assure you that I will be following the thread from work though. You can count on me changing my vote to the majority candidate before the deadline if that is what is needed to prevent a No-Lynch.
But for now, I'm feeling more confident about BLinD-Rawr than BobTheLob, so I will
##Vote BlinD-Rawr
Keir's one big post is a re-hash of everything that has happened in thread. He calls it his notes and there are a few observations thrown in but it feels like a a huge post that screams “look at me! Look at me! I am totally contributing!” without actually contributing. I'll link the post and you can read it over for yourself, it is so big that I skimmed it this morning when I had to run to work but it actually doesn't add as much as something of that length should.
In that long long post Kier calls Sciberbia 25% lilely to be scum. And when Sciberbia dies and flips town he says:
On July 05 2012 06:10 Keirathi wrote:
gg sciberbia. You were my best town read!
look at that attempt to gain towncred. Sciberbia was my best town read too but you'll notice that I acted on that before his death. Although I guess that is true based on what he said, 25% is the lowest chance of flipping scum he gives followed by two thirties and everyone else has a 50% chance or greater, talk about hedging your bets and leaving yourself an out.
So I think that Sciberbia was right, BlinD-Rawr was scum and so is kier.
My bet is that Hopeless1der is also scum. I have already made a case about him and here it is
On July 01 2012 09:33 Promethelax wrote:Between Show nested quote +On June 29 2012 07:17 Hopeless1der wrote:
Let's suppose many people neglect to post...if we can't get a decent case going, are we cool to lynch lurkers?
Everyone on board? and Show nested quote +On June 29 2012 07:40 Hopeless1der wrote:On June 29 2012 07:19 JingleHell wrote:
Actually, if many people neglect to post, it's the worst time to lynch lurkers, so why would you suggest it, Myles? Mathematically, if 6 lurk, then, if we assume 100% of the scum are also amongst the lurkers, we're already at a coinflip to get a scum. Very true. At that point its useless to policy lurkers. Now is the time to get this crap out of the way though. I do think we need some kind of policy to follow since the game is majority Lynch. Let's figure out our options and get the scumhunt on. something happened. Something more than the passage of 23 minutes. Looking into the thread it seems that it was JH and his actually bad post that convinced Myles to change his mind. See a 50% chance of hitting scum on d1 is good. I would take that on any d1 since clearly leaving us to our own devices didn't work very well. Since all that happened to change Myles' mind in thread was that one poorly thought out post I wonder if there wasn't something outside the thread that was posted, maybe in scum qt? No proof but something I'm taking into account. He follows this with a lot of useless one-liners and non-committal attacks against both Fencer and Anacletus. After wading through the mess he has made of his posting I also found this: Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 06:39 Hopeless1der wrote:On June 30 2012 06:17 Fencer710 wrote:Single words are fine, though. Damn lack of edit button increasing my post count artifically.  It's like accidently opening no-gas in a matchup where you normally open gas because you forgot his race, then forced to all-in because you don't know how to open gasless FE. Argh...Thanks for derailing us hard ghost. It's time to get back to scumhunting now? and for future reference, the quoted post is usually seen as a complete waste of time and reason for suspicion. where he says things that sound townie but doesn't do anything with those things. The next post I want you to pay attention to is this one: Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 12:45 Hopeless1der wrote:On June 30 2012 12:20 Fencer710 wrote:
OK, guys. I have to go to bed. My closing thoughts in case I don't make the deadline tomorrow:
Remember, 7 people have to decide to lynch the same guy in order for there to be a lynch. It's me, Anacletus, or nothing.
You can be meta all you want in your head, but it doesn't change what actually goes on in the thread.
Remember to read and reread all the posts! I'll take you over Anacletus today. You're posting is extremely unproductive to me. It doesnt seem all that scummy, but its a massive hindrance when you don't provide anything for discussion, just constantly droning about how your new and guides are super cool. ##Vote: Fencer710 which brought my attention on to our hopeless friend. From this point on he knows he is being watched and his posts change slightly. After this point Wonder never hard defends himself, instead he stops posting one-liners and tries to look more active, it looks to me like a guy who knows he is under suspicsion and wants to change that. That is not a town trait. When one of us comes under suspicsion our goal should be to act in a pro-town way to hunt scum, instead 1der has posted in a pro 1der way and not attempted to hunt scum at all. So, if that hasn't onvinced you, and I'm not sure it should I would like to give you the crowning jewl in the hopeless1der is a hopeless scum player case. Show nested quote +On July 01 2012 02:21 Hopeless1der wrote:The biggest scumtell I've had so far is the whole mislynch vs no lynch. To that I submit the following: WORST CASE SCENARIO No Lynch Day1 + Show Spoiler +
Day1: 9 Town, 3 Scum (33.333% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch)
No Lynch, Mafia hit on town
Day2: 8 Town, 3 Scum (37.5% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch
(Mis)Lynch Day1 + Show Spoiler +Day1: 9 Town, 3 Scum (33.333% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch)
Lynch Town, Mafia hit on town
Day2: 7 Town, 3 Scum (42.8% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch) Conclusion: Mislynch Bad. No Lynch Worse. On July 01 2012 02:09 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
SNIP
My read on Anacletus isn't changed at this point, though; I still think he's got a good chance of flipping scum. I'm a bit concerned that there might be too many players who will be inactive between now and the lynch, in which case I'll be switching my vote back to Anacletus to prevent a no-lynch. WTF YOU ALREADY KNOW THIS WHY AM I DEFENDING MYSELF TO YOU?? Let's look at his conclusion: it is bad to have a no lynch because if we kill of a town statistics suggests our next random lynch will be more likely to hit scum. Remember before this game started I said I was sorry if I was dumber than two rocks making love? I now present you with one of the two rocks required. Hopeless is either scum or playing an anti-town game because he has no idea what he is doing. Since the rest of us newbs figured it out I would guess it is the former rather than the latter.
On top of this he has continued to post in a scummy was and when I came under attack he soft defended me I think that he knows that I am green and knows that if I am lynched having defended me will look good. Once I flip green the town will probably lynch Kier (assuming we get our medic save at night, we may as well plan to succeed since planning for failure won't help us) and Keir has said that Hopeless is his next scummiest read after me. Hopeless has defended me. I believe that the scum plan is to get me mislynched in return for probably just straight winning and, if they don't win, losing one of their own and confirming a second as town in everyone's eyes. He also pushes Umlaut while Keir calls him town, it looks to me like scum setting up the perfect follow up mislynch after both Kier and I have flipped.
It is my firm belief that Hopeless is scum. His play seemed stupid but it changed drastically, he says he got coaching but I bet it was from marvellosity and not xsksc or artanis[xp], note his familiar use of marvellosity's name here:
On July 04 2012 04:54 Hopeless1der wrote:
By my count, sciberbia has hammered Intact, just over an hour remaining.
(See marv, I can spell his name just fine.)
I'd say that is from someone who has talked to 'marv' and not our coaches.
Hopeless1der is scum along with Kier.
Since we are in a situation where we will lose if we mislynch we lose (assuming there are no brilliant medic saves, which seem unlikely at this point) I want to talk about town reads too. It doesn't matter if scum know who we see as town, we all need to have each others' reads. Town only benefits from more information and I want to get as much of it out there as possible.
The person I want to talk about is Myles, since I have made a case against him in the past as have JH and others, I think he is a possible mislynch target.
Myles is, as far as I can tell, town. (look at me, spelling out that my opinions are my opinions, I wish I had more information that I could give you but I don't and I can't).
So, as you know if you have read this thread, I have stated in the past that Bob is scummy. I don't think so anymore, and not just because he was celebrating Canada day with me.
On July 04 2012 04:04 BobTheLob wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2012 03:59 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
EBWOP: I should clarify what I mean when I say I'm very nervous about the lynch. Town play has not been good this game, which has left us with more scummy-looking players than there are actual scum. Assuming there's even one PBU in this game who knows how to play without looking like the second coming of GG.Nore, we're lynching into a population that includes way too many friendlies for comfort. Even making the best reads we can, we're taking a percentage gamble that I'm really not happy about. *Twitch* That was what I was saying before and I got bitched at for it....
Bob is actually right to bring this up, we jumped on him for the exact same thought process which was worded more poorly in his case. Bringing attention to this serves no purpose if he is scum. He wouldn't want to make us re-look at his mistakes. But he focuses on them to bring attention to another player. Admitting to his own mistakes and using them to make a point, albeit a simple one, is a townie behaviour. It is also his post
On July 04 2012 12:11 BobTheLob wrote:
I've more or less given up, I dug myself a hole. I realize that I look scummy as hell and there is very little I can do to convince you otherwise because if I suddenly got a whole bunch of shit put together and did some epic reads it would just be me doing damage control and still look scummy. Now IMO Prome is scum and that's who I'll be voting tomorrow if we don't get anything better. Also I realize that I'm dead sooooooo... Yeah FML.
onto which Keir bandwaggons. Though he totally fails to mention that he isn't posting something revolutionary. I think that if Kier is scum Bob is town and, since I am sure that Kier is scum I am also sure that Bob is town. Saying what Bob said above as scum would be dumb, I am one of the most active town players and have had 0 suspicion on me all game so why would he say this? Only if he were town who actually thought that I was scum, he is wrong but green as far as I can see.
To some up this post for those that don't have the patience to wade through it:
Kier=Scum
Hopeless=Scum
Bob=Town
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On July 05 2012 13:11 Keirathi wrote:EBWOP: I missed a point again Show nested quote +On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote:
25% is the lowest chance of flipping scum he gives followed by two thirties and everyone else has a 50% chance or greater, talk about hedging your bets and leaving yourself an out.
I had 3 people over 50, and 4 people under 50 (with a hard no-read on Fencar/Milton). And you wanted to call me out for distorting facts.
Ah, I'm sorry. I must have missed one on my speed read. My fiance was getting mad at me for wasting time on Mafia when I could be with her. She is asleep now though so I'll try to reply to your post since you clearly want to continue this.
I didn't want to start an OMGUS war either, you understand why I'm sure, us going after each other doesn't serve any purpose for town.
Don't worry though, I won't be silent. It is not in my nature to be silent while you throw out false accusations at me.
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Okay, you want to refrain from defending ourselves and have us look at everyone but ourselves? Fine, as I've already stated I don't really feel that it is useful for me to defend myself against baseless accusations. Instead I will look at your reads on other people/
There are some things in your cases that are based on things which I can see could seem scummy. You need to lay off with telling me that I am not mod-confirmed. I get it I'm not mod-confirmed to you, what I am saying is that I am mod-confirmed to me. I got a role pm, it told me that I'm townie, it came from a mod.
So, since you want me to ignore your case on me I'll look at your other reads. I've already posted about Bob, You, Fencar and Hopeless. That leaves Myles, iamimperfection, AmericanUlaut and me.
AmericanUmlaut: I wasn't sure on him for a while but he started really contributing and making a difference in the thread. As you mentioned I wanted a dt to check him early because he was pretty null to me, the way I would play dt is to check the guys I don't have good reads on thus gaining the most information possible. His defense against your post seems really tight, maybe I am biased because I know that your attack against me is baseless so I feel that your attack against him is too. His points on your case about his vote switching to ensure lynch and about how Intact was likely to be a red power role actually point more towards you being scum. Your attacks require a clear misunderstanding of what people say to have any traction. So Umlaut looks townie to me. I didn't chose to write about him in my first post because I felt I had already made my position clear on him and I was trying to get my reads into the thread to make sure they were heard.
Myles: I had thought he was scum early on, his posting improved and he became null for me, I was planning on talking about him earlier but die to time constraints had to leave some people out of my reads. My opinion of him has changed a little because of his reaction to the night kill. Since the night kill he has only posted in frustration which, in my opinion, would be a really easy thing to fake as scum. He hasn't given us anything and he hasn't participated in discussions. Because of his refusal to be a part of town when we need it most he has slipped back into the scum column. He posted four times in four hours and added no things to the thread.
Iamimprefection: is too minimalistic with his reads. His case on Bob is the only piece of good detective work he does. I put him on the very slightly scummy side of things but he is mostly null to me. I think he is probably just a bad town player because I have redder reads on other people but if I am wrong on Kierthi, Hopeless and Myles (with Fencar totally able to take the place of Myles as soon as he exists again.) than iamimperfection might fit in here somewhere.
Me: I'm town aligned.
There you have the brief write up of all my reads. I'm probably going to bed now. I'll be awake tomorrow morning to post once more before I'm off to work for a nice easy nine hour day.
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On July 05 2012 13:43 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2012 13:17 Promethelax wrote:
I'll try to reply to your post since you clearly want to continue this.
That's not what I want at all. You were right, town doesn't gain much by the two of us arguing back and forth. I will fully admit that I might be wrong about you. That's why I'm asking for other people to come in with their own thoughts about you, and about everyone else.
So work with me, reply to my cases on literally everyone in the thread. You posted your notes and I posted my reads. If you really are a deluded townie (hell, anything is possible) we're on the same team. Let's work together put our arms around each others' shoulders and smile for the camera after we win this thing. How about it?
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On July 05 2012 14:19 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2012 13:46 Promethelax wrote:
how Intact was likely to be a red power role actually point more towards you being scum. Your attacks require a clear misunderstanding of what people say to have any traction.
I freely admitted that I did misunderstand him. My initial read through, for some reason I thought be meant blue roles, rather than red power roles. Once he clarified what he meant, I agreed with the sentiment. As far as the rest of your position on Umlaut, I mostly agree. However, I wasn't attacking him (in fact, his reply to my notes post felt a bit too aggressive, when I had basically given him my seal of approval), and my points on him (and you) aren't baseless. My conclusions might be wrong, but I didn't just make shit up. Show nested quote +On July 05 2012 13:46 Promethelax wrote:
Myles: I had thought he was scum early on, his posting improved and he became null for me, I was planning on talking about him earlier but die to time constraints had to leave some people out of my reads. My opinion of him has changed a little because of his reaction to the night kill. Since the night kill he has only posted in frustration which, in my opinion, would be a really easy thing to fake as scum. He hasn't given us anything and he hasn't participated in discussions. Because of his refusal to be a part of town when we need it most he has slipped back into the scum column. He posted four times in four hours and added no things to the thread.
Huh? Just TWO posts ago you said you believed Myles to be town. + Show Spoiler +Myles is, as far as I can tell, town. (look at me, spelling out that my opinions are my opinions, I wish I had more information that I could give you but I don't and I can't). Now you think he has a good chance of being scum again? And re iamperfection: yea, I mostly agree that he hasn't been active enough to really make a solid read on. Second fewest posts of all the active players, and who I found the least amount of actual useful information about (ie, i basically only have 3 lines of stuff about him). He's pretty null to me as well, but he really has to come out and  O* something. This is crunch time, we need everyone participating.
I looked at Myles again, his post lynch posts are trash. Too much frusration no content. I'm trying to look at people with open eyes. Even though you are wrong about your accusation you reminded me I had to look at the thread as a whole again.
When you call out behaviours as scummy that is an attack, even if you don't see it.
I'm sorry I missed you taking back your accusation over that blue/red power role thing.
Hopefully imaimperfection will add more to the thread. We'll see.
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On July 05 2012 14:45 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2012 12:25 Hopeless1der wrote:
In the meantime, is it worth No-Lynching today? We get another day to look for scum and it buys time to get a better read on miltonkram and keirathi. It also gives our potential blue(s) another day to get information. Right now I'm inclined to believe its our best course of action as town is guaranteed to not lose for one more day.
##VOTE: No Lynch
Sorry if it seemed like I was ignoring your proposal. I am of the opinion that no-lynch is a good idea for town in this situation, but in my last game (XVIII), I proposed the same plan in the same situation (5 townies, 3 scum) and spent a lot of time vehemently defending it. In the end, I got shot down (and it wouldn't have worked anyways because plurality system instead of majority in that game, which I didn't understand) repeatedly (although in hindsight, the people arguing against me were all scum), and our doc ended up getting lynched and we lost the game. If other people are on-board, I'm all for it. I personally think it benefits town, but I won't spend time arguing for it because we just waste time that could be used discussing candidates instead.
In a majority lynch game where there is not a strong lynch candidate in mylo no lynch is a good choice, if people won't go for one of my strong reads and instead want to lynch someone I have a town read on I will be willing to vote for a no-lynch. My preference would be to lynch scum (obviously) but we cannot have a mislynch as it will cost us the game.
There is no real need to discuss the no lynch now as it will get in that way of making cases is we all argue about how good it is or isn't for town but I wanted to put my voice in on this. Everyone should think about it and come up with their own conclusion on if it helps us, I'm sure that there will be some people who think it is an awful idea but it is still something that everyone should have an opinion on.
If we get near the deadline and there is not a satisfactory lynch candidate we should bring this back up and talk about it at that point.
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As you can see I've been gone for a little while, unfortunately Real Life and I have had some things to work out. I will be voting now for Hopeless, who I think is slightly scummier than Kier. I re-read the thread and it is Hopeless' filter than stands out as scummy throughout the whole game, I am pretty sure that both are scum but am more confident of Hopeless.
Hopeless started people down the Intact road, which Umlat followed up with using a much better case. We lynched into Intact and killed another townie. It is time for us to kill scum and Hopeless is it. I have made cases on him through much of this game and truly believe that he is red.
I will once again be gone for some time (work and other RL concerns) but in the meantime:
Vote: Hopeless
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Umlat: I love that play. That was actually great, you would do well to remember that it only proves that Hopeless is scum if neither of us are. Now I know I am not scum and I'm pretty sure you aren't either but if you are scum two more votes wouldn't have hammered Hopeless. Since my read on you us pretty good as a a townie I'm guessing that you are right about Hopeless.
Pre-Post Edit. I shall not talk about pardons or mod kills.
Hopeless: as to your claim...I don't know what to say. You bread crumb'd VT? That is the safest claim by scum, I don't know what to say. Because there are no actions to back it up it seems like a role that you don't need to claim although I can see how a newb scum or townie would do that. I still think you are scum but this claim is totally null.
Why are you interested in my take in particular? I'm actually really curious dude. (not sarcasm)
As to your proposal about a mass claim it can't hurt us. After the NK (I'm still assuming no medic saves) we have to lynch perfectly three times so we may as well have everything on the table. A no-lynch won't be an option tomorrow, we need every scrap of information we have.
Has it occurred to you that we might not have any information roles though? There has been a lot of talk about Newbie's relying too heavily on Blues, maybe Ghost decided to leave them out of the game and make us scumhunt for ourselves? I know this is more of a balance concern but it is something to think about.
I'll be awake for a while, I was out partying and am going to watch the GSTL. I'll be around though and, as usual I'll be here in the morning before work.
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I still think that Kier's posting seems scummy and this play would be a great gambit if it is one. The whole thing comes up null to me, either he is our dt or he is a really excellent scum player. Either way I don't think lynching into him is a good idea, Hopeless is scummier and I'm not risking mis-lynching into our dt to lose us the game even if I don't think the claim has any proof behind it.
Keir: Did you breadcrumb your role or your first check? If so where?
Also: thanks for FoSing me, I didn't expect to live this long.
We need to lynch 100% scum today, now I think Hopeless is our best bet of a scum lynch and, assuming we are right we'll get another day to read from and see what has happened.
Who do each of you think is most scummy? We have to lynch our number one target, we can't settle for second best or probably scum. If you were mayor who would die tonight? I want an honest up-front answer from each of you which starts with the simple sentence: "If I were mayor X would die tonight" and a follow up of your reasoning.
That said, if I were mayor Hopeless1der would die tonight.
He is the scummiest player we have in this game and Umlaut's gambit last night makes me more sure of Hopeless than of anyone else. As you know from my vote yesterday I already thought that he was the scummiest since I voted before we went for a no-lynch. The way things played out yesterday reenforced my belief that Hopeless will flip red. So I will be voting Hopeless1der and urge you all to do the same. We can still bring this back and win it.
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On July 09 2012 06:57 Keirathi wrote:
Yea getting roleblocked really hurt my claim. I was really counting on having the information on Hopeless because that would have given information on multiple people rather than just the one. I was so worried about getting the one confirmation that I had out there that I never even thought about what would happen if I was roleblocked.
Is this poor play or a scum claim? How does a townie with an active blue role forget about the possibility of a role block? Sure, some roles can't be blocked but the active ones all suffer from that possibility just to balance the game. I have a hard time believing that you didn't take this into account, ah well, you aren't my number one scum read. But if I am right and Hopeless is scum you are the clear follow-up, unless you give us a real read the next night (which is backed up by either a tracker or a watcher, if we have a tracker I would urge him to track Kier to be able to counter his claim of checking someone in case it is false) or are NK'd
On July 09 2012 07:19 Hopeless1der wrote:
Its lynch or lose. Why take the risk at this point in the game of not mass claiming. Do everything possible to NOT LOSE right now. Umlaut you're saying we should keep ourselves in the dark and rely on just the information we currently have, while Scum have an information advantage. Look how that method has worked out for town so far. We haven't hit one scum yet. That argument is complete bull. The biggest downside to not claiming is I'm going to end up lynched and town will lose the game. But that's exactly what you want, isn't it Umlaut? We're supposed to play WIFOM for the rest of the day instead of just claiming and discussing things with as open a table as we can. That sounds like a superb plan for scum to keep town in the dark.
My problem with this is that in theory I agree with it, we need to lynch right today and any additional knowledge helps us to do that. We also do still need to get two correct lynches after this and having confirmed power roles basically tells scum who to shoot which makes our job harder. I've been thinking about it a lot and I think that all information roles with something to add should claim (everyone has something to add). Any non-information blues (medic, vet, etc) should not claim unless they are in danger. Later in the day the others should come forward if they feel it is necessary just to narrow our lynch targets onto those non-blue players.
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As your probably gathered either by reading my filter or my lack of an early post I don't work on mondays.
That said I also won't be around all day since it is my day off and my family is coming to visit us next week, house cleaning sucks.
I'm going to spend some time looking into filters and making sure that my, hopefully not, last vote is for scum. Since it is do or die today I'm going
Kier: if you are around could you explain to me why AU is no more scum than me? I see the reasons you posted but they don't seem sufficient to make a 45% change in his scumminess. Maybe a 25% bu nothing so drastic as to make me totally positive that I will rest the fate of town on him being scum. How did I drop two (or more) spaces in your scum hierarchy? You aren't even comfortable pushing your scummiest read (me) from yesterday when we're in a lylo situation.
What I'm saying is: where does this inconsistency come from?
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EPT
