EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XVII
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Canada1159 Posts
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i hope we're on the same team this time around T__T | ||
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It was really weird last game having ppl call me 'he'. Not a big deal but still weird. | ||
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If I understood correctly, it doesn't mean that I would stop any lynch that I didn't mention on my analysis. Just because I have a candidate for lynch, it doesn't imply that I discard any other possibility. It's something related to common sense. If any other cases are convincing enough, I'll throw my vote there in the case I can't get a majority. In the other hand, if we end up like RNG lynching (which is a bad idea), any other poster that could be doing silly mistakes, or even a player practically saying ''hey guys, I'm mafia, lynch me'' that's when it goes against my mindset. Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch. This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious with his words, so that he'll have a safety net if/when he ever changes a vote or bandwagons on someone else. He throws out some 'obvious' examples of reasons of what wouldn't agree with him, and even mentions that he would follow through on a read, even if it that means a no lynch. BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this: I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. ... Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open. ##vote trackd00r | ||
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I'll be pressing for a scum lynch over a lurker lynch on day 1. As we saw in newbie mafia XV, several of our players (the least active ones) were either replaced or modkilled over day 1 and day 2, yet a lot of the discussion was focused on whether or not to lynch them. Also related to XV, we should absolutely avoid a Day 1 NL. Me getting lynched on Day 1 provided most of the ammunition and clues that were used to nail heist on Day 3 and could have nailed Xatalos had he not played an excellent game after his Day 1 blunders. | ||
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##unvote trackd00r I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r, however my case was too weak and I feel that no useful information can be gleamed from people simply agreeing on its flimsiness. Regarding miltonkram's vote of sciberbia, I personally think it's a joke referencing our previous game XV where he votes sciberbia within the first few posts of the game. I thought it was pretty funny myself. I feel that rofl's case on alan is not very convincing. First off, alan isn't bandwagoning on the lurker/inactive issue, at that point is split about 50/50 with half of the previous posters saying they want to focus on scumhunting and half leaning more towards a lurker lynch. Second, the game is so new that I disagree with the statement that his play is anti-town. He hasn't made any strong statements because there are few strong statements to make. My case on trackd00r was/is a flop, and up until your vote on alan no one has really pointed out anything suspicious about any other player (well, aside from those questioning my motivation to vote for trackd00r). Contributions are low but that's to be expected in the first hours of the game. I feel that there's not enough information out there yet to make an opinion on alan. | ||
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I felt golden's first post seemed a bit off as well compared to last game, but I was waiting for a few more posts from him before saying anything. @alan Don't stay neutral. Neutral doesn't help town. Making strong opinions and reads helps town. Off to work, I'll be back later. | ||
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Suki has been painting track's two posts as directly contradictory even though they aren't. This could be an overzealous town play but I don't think it is. What possible motivation could there be for a strong attack on someone with a controversial opinion? Firstly, there's the chance that the town might bandwagon on it. This would be the best possible scenario for suki if she is scum. She leads a bandwagon D1 and she gets a mislynch. Secondly, she gains town cred for appearing aggressive even if she doesn't get the lynch. It seems like a win/win scenario for scum unless of course someone makes the analysis I'm making now. In summary, the case on trackd00r is pure crap. Making a controversial statement is not a scumtell. I think suki is trying to cover her scumminess by appearing aggressive without making a good case. Apologies for not addressing you directly. Quite simply you (and several other people after you) answered your question. The motivation is to get the ball rolling some way, any way. I feel I failed a bit in that regard as my attack was so full of holes that there hardly was any discussion developed from it, but it was made with good intentions. Regarding Mouldyjeb, I agree that he is confusing, however his filter is also quite short. His words definitely are not pro-town, but in my opinion they aren't inherently scummy either, it could just as easily be poor town play. Now I've gone through a few people's filters, and only one person really sticks out at me: alan133 roflwaffle initiated pressure on him, and then loosened up after Crossfire and I argued in alan's defense. I did not find the case convincing before, but now alan's posted his defense, and now the case is a lot more stronger to me. As a quick rehash of rofl's initial case, he argued that alan made posts with little controversy, that he wasn't interested or willing to apply pressure on anyone, that he does some bandwagoning. All true, but possible for both town and scum play. However, with his defense posts, I feel that things are starting to add up. Looking even closer at the filter I feel I've caught some things that I missed before. + Show Spoiler + FMPOV, suki's case was most probably based on a misunderstanding, but (s)he could very well did it intentionally hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. Note that I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, which can also mean that I do not trust anyone yet. His initial statement is very verbose and is pro-actively defensive. He's countering arguments to his words before they even come up. He's even countering counter arguments to his words. "...hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. [counter] Note I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, [counter-counter] which can also mean I do not trust anyone yet". He also likes to use FMPOV and IMO a lot, further stressing how his words are subjective. It's very telling when someone is that self-conscious and defensive, because only mafia really have that motivation. When called out by waffle for not having suspicions, he gets extremely agitated. FMPOV, anyone can be scum, and having no FoS does not mean I do not suspect anyone. I merely state that I have no strong scum read as of currently, and in my context, strong means pretty much confirmed. IMO those who are decisive in throwing votes based on weak or insubstantial claims were somewhat suspicious. I think it is normal for townies to hold doubts and and being decisive as they were less informed. If anything, I just tried to keep an open mind. He spends a lot of words explaining his reasoning behind saying he doesn't have an FoS. He starts to really use red to emphasize his words, which he had used previously to point out inconsistencies and scummy lines, but not to add emphasis to his words. Notice that he is spending a lot of effort defending himself and justifying his past words. I feel a townie would be less threatened by such accusations, and instead start trying to apply pressure and otherwise prove their towniness. . Following what he feels is an adequate self-defense, he goes on the offensive. Also, is it me or you were trying to divert the attention AWAY from suki? I don't see how keeping the attention on suki is a bad thing, as you suggested. Well if you're complaining about not bringing up any of my thoughts, there you have it. I were trying to avoid throwing out suspicions with little to no proof, but if by not doing so is anti-town As a matter of fact, roflwaffles55 asked for my opinion replying to my opening post, and criticise it being a bandwagon, while forgetting he did the same. This is extremely extremely scummy to me. What he's saying here is essentially this: "If not giving throwing out suspicions is anti-town, then I will prove my towniness by throwing out suspicions.", followed by attacking the person who attacked him. He finishes the post by saying My policy is to stay as neutral as possible, accessing all the possibilities while passively waiting/reading what other people has posted. I do believe this is not a bad-town play, as I am trying to avoid town fighting town scenario while scums lurks and look at the drama while eating pop-corns. There is a mental disconnect here. 1. He feels throwing out suspicions is bad for town 2. He tries to prove his towniness by throwing out a suspicion at his attacker 3. He reinforces his belief that staying neutral is not bad town play If he really was town and he really believed that his way of playing was optimal, why would he have the need to go completely against his beliefs to prove his towniness? In his next post, the same trend continues. He spends time justifying his red text: The red text was meant to emphasize on how easily I could've built a case against you if I were to use the same speculations and baseless assumptions. but the interesting thing is.. if it was so easy for him to build a case against waffles, why didn't he? Of course, because he didn't have any. He was simply defending via attacking. And then there's the whole weird analysis that he does where he analyses my case and waffle's case, comes to the conclusion that: 1. waffles could be either scum or town (???) 2. somehow finds me slightly scummy even though he previously thought that my case was based on a misunderstanding (and went to extra lengths to state that he did not FOS anyone yet), 3. Some sort of mafia conspiracy theory out of left field what?? 4. Which he backs off saying 'I think I might have read too much into it." So, he finally makes analyses on people, but only the two most active and controversial ones, and doesn't come to any solid conclusions. He makes a really weird statement regarding mafia alterior motives that doesn't make any sense coming from a town's perspective, but comes naturally to a mafia who is trying to spin scum motivations on townies. Summary 1. He's pro-actively defensive 2. Justifies his own actions instead of trying to make pro-town actions 3. Defensive Aggression 4. Inconsistency regarding a neutral/suspicion-throwing playstyle 5. Attacks the two most controversial posters with a questionable theory for townies to think of that he just kind of throws out there. 6. Still no solid reads, analysis or suspicions despite (kind of??) conceding that not throwing out suspicions is anti-town. ##vote alan133 | ||
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I think a lot of your argument stems from the impression that I was absolutely sure trackd00r was scum. I definitely worded my post that way on purpose, in spite of knowing my case wasn't solid. I was genuinely surprised that my case was as weak as it was. Basically one good post from you was strong enough to let everyone basically say 'yeah, I agree.' My comment that 'at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r' was because I thought even if my case was really weak, I could aggravate an interesting reply from trackd00r, but it didn't. Regarding the contradiction, and the comment that the contradiction isn't as severe as I thought it was. It's simply not taking the time to really think about the topic, after reading the rebuttals and being disappointed. There is no contradiction, it was just me being careless with my choice of words. Actually, the offhanded and subtly confident way he deflected my attack is a townie point for him in my book, so as it stands I don't suspect trackd00r at all. Hmhm. I just posted a big thing on alan. I have been away all day and it took me forever to look at the thread and all the filters and make a post that really contributed to the thread. As for opening the game, I posted my policy post after the accusation because I wrote the accusation first. I did want to start the thread off boldly, I'll give you that. And now I've spent like three hours on these two posts and I have things to do before I sleep, so good night! I'll try to find time in the morning to contribute but I may not be able to until after work. | ||
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Crossfire99: I spent a lot of time trying to figure out if he is scum or not. Looking into the filter of his two previous games, I found that his posting style is more or less the same. In game 1, he rolls blue and lurks quite hard. He states out of game reasons for lurking, but he plays more or less non-commital, pointing out suspicious behavior but not really heavily pressuring anyone. In game 2 as mafia, he starts out the game by doing two things. First, he posts a defense of a townie that had come under scrutiny. Second, he immediately starts pointing out errors in one particular person's posts. He actually tunnels this person for the entire Day 1 and only just fails to get him lynched. He survives for the whole game without really being under fire and mafia wins the game. In this game I see a lot of policy talk, a lot of guidance talk, and hardly any pressure at all. I find it quite different from his previously successful mafia play. In addition, his helpful tone is quite present in the mafia QT from the previous game, which makes me feel more inclined to think he's actually trying to help, despite his posts not really pressuring or helping town much. Basically, his meta has changed from his last scum game, and it's changed in a confusing way, and he isn't using the tactics that lead him to a win in the previous game. I'm waiting for more contributions from him before deciding whether I think he's scum or not. About HeavOnEarth: HeavOn's attack against Golden is weak, and his offhanded comment on MouldyJeb is simplistic. His points against Crossfire are thought out and straightforward. While he has not taken a strong stance against anyone, he's also not been wishy washy. He's also kind of aggravating, mocking and provoking MJ and golden while waiting for their responses. He hasn't contributed much, especially in the way of the major cases of the day, which is a big point against him. I feel HeavOn isn't as suspicious as people are making him out to be, and am waiting for his response on topics such as me, alan113 and crossfire before making a decision. @Austin Since you seem to be awake now, can I hear your thoughts on who you think is suspicious? You haven't stated anything of the sort yet, despite writing a lot about the current cases. Since you dont like the cases presented, care to make one yourself? I've already posted my opinions on MouldyJeb, so I think that about covers everyone interesting at the moment. Tonight I'll go over the filters of the people who I haven't touched on and see if I can find something. Defense post incoming.. I wanna post this before I write the defense since they're two different topics. | ||
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His points on my defense is basically that I was being non-transparent. Another way to look at it is I used the wrong wording and I'm more concerned about scumhunting than pursuing and discussing moot topics. In any case, my defense is what it is. The part about looking bold is just WIFOM and not very helpful at this point. In any case, only he and alan have thought I looked suspicious. Let me talk about alan. His points against my case: Summary 1. He's pro-actively defensive I was tunneled by rolf, and I choose to confront it head on hoping it will clear myself. By pro-actively defensive, I mean he was defensive before any accusations against him occured (by being extremely careful with his words). The point still stands. 2. Justifies his own actions instead of trying to make pro-town actions How else am I going to defend myself other than justifying it? And you claimed I did not make "pro-town" actions. I beg to differ. I actively throw out all the possible motives. I believe later on day 2 when more solid facts are present (killing pattern/blue role have more ideas), we can rule out some of these motives to get a better picture. Right now, I am merely focusing on reading every player's patterns. Yes, defend yourself. What I want to point out is that alan has spent a lot of effort defending himsef, but hasn't done anything pro-town following the defense. His only suspicions lie on rofl and me, both who have accused him. Where is the focus on reading 'every player's patterns'? You've only looked at two. 3. Defensive Aggression You just repeated point 1. No, this is different. This is being aggressive to defend yourself. You attacked the person who is attacking you, and it seems like you do it for the sake of defending yourself, by pointing out the attacker's own inconsistencies. This is not good scum hunting, this is a knee-jerk defensive reaction. 4. Inconsistency regarding a neutral/suspicion-throwing playstyle If you are referring to the "red text mocked up case" I posted in defense of rolf's case by "proof by contradiction". That seems like a very sensational and ultimately unhelpful way of defending yourself. The fact that you do it in an aggressive rather than logical tone makes me feel like you wanted to get the heat off yourself as fast as possible. 5. Attacks the two most controversial posters with a questionable theory for townies to think of that he just kind of throws out there. How is rolf controversial? Also, I don't find my theory "questionable". I merely listed what happened. Please provide clear "questions" instead of vague accusation. rofl was controversial because his case against you was weak, and he was also getting questioned for backing off quickly. Your theory on me and rofl is questionable, because it feels like you're stretching to make some connections between the two people who are on your case the hardest. 6. Still no solid reads, analysis or suspicions despite (kind of??) conceding that not throwing out suspicions is anti-town. Throwing random "solid reads" without proofs or substantial supporting reason is just as well as filler. I did not throw "solid reads", instead I posted the possibilities, which because of (refer to reply to #2), I think it is not scummy or even anti-town. What I was focusing on was the fact that besides what you have wrote on me and rofl, you have not done any analysis at all on anyone else. You hide behind this excuse that you want to be neutral, but your posts have not been at all helpful to scumhunting. Let me reiterate the key points of my case on alan: 1. It's not that he is defensive. It's the way he's being defensive. He was extremely conscious of misinterpretations of his words in the beginning. He attacks his attackers. Despite feeling that throwing suspicions around was bad town play, he threw suspicions at roflwaffle to prove his towniness. I don't buy that his response was 'proof by contradiction', the tone is completely off. 2. He is inconsistent. He states that he doesn't like throwing out suspicions, that he thinks neutral play by town isn't bad for town. Yet he throws suspicions at those attacking him, and he continues to work with this idea that rofl and I are working together as a mafia ploy. Is that really the most suspicious part of this entire thread, are roflwaffle and me really the most suspicious people out of everyone else? I highly highly doubt it. He is inconsistent because he doesn't like throwing out suspicions (his reasoning for not commenting on anyone else it seems), yet he freely throws suspicions at his attackers. In addition, Alan's suspicions on rofl and I have more been about finding a way to make our play scummy, rather than pointing out scum motivations and tells. 3. He still hasn't done any analysis on any other players. Why? Has it not been made clear to you that your opinions are needed? Let me say it clearly: What are your opinions on everyone else? Do something productive for the town for once. And everyone else, what do you think of my case? I really don't think it's flimsy at all. | ||
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alan hasn't changed his playstyle. He's still maintaining neutrality on everyone except me and roflwaffle. He's clearly had time to hunt for suspicious behaviour of me and rofl. I don't like how he is hiding behind this 'neutrality' premise to avoid commenting on anyone he doesn't feel like. I'm not OMGUSing him, I'm calling him out for not contributing to the town under the premise of 'neutrality'. I'm calling him out for failing to comment on any of the main players being discussed in the thread - HeavOnEarth, MouldyJeb, and Crossfire. Yes, you could argue newb townie motivation for neutrality, accusing his accusers and knee-jerk defense, but shouldn't there also be motivation for contributing his thoughts on current topics? | ||
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I am satisfied with the reads that alan's posted. He's clearly gone through people's filters and comes up with solid reads. In addition, I find his defense of my latest attack on him convincing. His initial defense of my case had a few holes, and I pressed him hard for those feeling that it might have been a way to brush off those points without addressing them. He has went over my points and answered them clearly, and I feel more comfortable attributing those holes to english not being his first language. My primary points of suspicion against alan (the key points after his rebuttal) were his method of defence, his inconsistency of play and his lack of commenting on other players. I can rule out being extra-careful of his words and using an overly aggressive tone as part of his difficulty with english. It also helps that he has not been pro-actively defensive or sensational in the newest post where he outlines his suspicions. As for his inconsistency of play and not pointing out scum motivations, he has now posted cases on a lot of players. I concede that given his most recent post, I no longer hold my case as valid. As the vote deadline is getting close I want to put in my thoughts now rather than waiting for later. Please excuse me if I'm a bit rushed in my analysis as I don't have much time during the day. s0lstice i like his play. Solid reads, very little fluff. A strong air of confidence that was also present in the previous game we played together. He posts his reads with conviction. Because of this, I have decided to give HeavOnEarth's filter another look. HeavOnEarth: Okay, something really really sticks out to me in Heavon's first post, and it's not about golden. It's this particular line: also id like to point out crossfire is completely inactive, whereas in past games he was a pretty talkative little townie. thoughts? Above, I posted my opinions on Crossfire, where I had gone through pretty much his entire filter in his two previous games, and the big thing I noted was that Crossfire LURKED very hard in his first game as blue, and somewhat lurked in the second game as red. HeavOn clearly is talking about Crossfire's game as blue, 'He was a pretty talkative little townie'. This is clearly wrong. He continues his case against Crossfire later after sciberbia brings it up. This has already been labelled as suspicious. It's a big point against him that he waited until someone else pointed fingers at Crossfire, when he had so early established a read on Crossfire - a fairly in depth read as he had even looked at Crossfire's filters from previous games. The thing is, the case HeavOn makes against crossfire disregards the previous game filters. Crossfire, as mafia, was assertive actively pushed cases against other players. He also lurked quite a bit. As for golden i admit my analysis was pretty damn bad LOL , but he didn't really have any other posts for me to provoke him with, and i still feel its a strong play to accuse lurkers of being scummy, just to get them to talk. The way he went about replying though felt really odd to me. For example, i don't really care if you're taking a few mins to write up a post. Why tell me about it(unless you're about to be majority lynched or something). Just feels off. HeavOn votes for Golden despite saying that his case against Golden is weak. He doesn't back off however, stating that the response was scummy and that the scummy thing about it was how golden was commenting on the time it would take to make his posts? Seems like a very strained argument to make. I see clear scum motivation in voting for golden. In my previous game as mafia, I harped on Miltonkram for his early vote against sciberbia. Even when my argument was convincingly rebutted, I continued to press my case against him finding any sort of scummy intent I could make up. Why? Because I didn't want to be wishy-washy. HeavOn's case against golden is that golden 'just feels off'. This makes Golden a 'solid lynch' to him. I'm out of time, but that's my insight into HeavOn. I feel that there can definitely be scum motivation behind his posts. I haven't had time to closely look at other people but for now HeavOn is clearly a scummier target than alan. ##unvote alan113 ##vote HeavOnEarth | ||
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..I've been feeling jittery all day. It's seriously more effective than any amount of caffiene >_<; | ||
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Hm.. On the one hand, missing the vote is definitely something a mafia would do if they thought they could get away with it, as it's easier to push a no lynch that way. I like how he just conveniently got in a car accident exactly before the lynch. It's possible that he's town, but I can definitely see scum motivation for this gambit. .... JUST KIDDING. I hope everyone is okay and things work out for you. I also hope he doesnt get modkilled cuz he has been contributing and sometimes shit just happens. | ||
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I've gone through everyone left, and let me say that one person really sticks out to me, more than anyone else. trackd00r The first thing that I did when looking for scum is see who targetted MouldyJeb, and Crossfire. Between those two and HeavOnEarth, these three made up the prime candidates for the day 1 lynch. Also keep in mind that HeavOnEarth targeted Mouldy, Crossfire and Golden as I go through trackd00r's history. To start, trackd00r posts a meh case on Mouldy early on but doesn't press it. Later on he posts that he's not convinced of Mouldy's case. He says that the most suspicious players on his list are me, crossfire and golden, and that he'd push a lynch on any of them. First, he totally forgets to post analysis on me. At this point three players (Milton, sciberbia and Alan) have stated their suspicions on me. It's really weird how he states that he's suspicious and doesn't back it up. He's willing to lynch me, which means he must have a strong opinion on my play. He posts big analysis on crossfire and golden but then forgets to justify his suspicions on me. This alone isn't suspicious but it questions the clarity of his thoughts, and its easier for mafia to get confused as they're constantly trying to spin things. He targets Crossfire. At this point Crossfire is under pressure by austin, roflwaffle, Milton, and sciberbia. Golden and I have been the ones backing crossfire up. trackd00r lists the things that Crossfire has done. He dislikes how Crossfire disappeared from radar and was just checking the thread, and how he didn't bring anything new to the table. He ends without a solid opinion, states that there's nothing to quote to show for evidence. Basically, his words amount to 'I dont like the way he is playing'. Yet he is willing to push a lynch on Crossfire. Following this he writes a case on Golden. He specifically states that Golden is 'very similar to crossfire, but acts in a much scummier way.' Bragging to much IMO about his task of writing stuff. He states that he wants write a summary for himself. Dude, you are not playing alone, you have 8 any other people doing the same thing, and the only way is by working togheter. His argument has nothing to do with, and doesn't label this, as scummy behaviour. Annoying, maybe(?) but not scummy. He also finds Golden's wall of text "quite disappointing" In some parts, where he clearly explains events, it's got the name of an opinion. I don't quite understand his words. I believe he's saying something along the lines of Golden explaining events clearly, and that it has something to do with an opinion... But regardless of the exact meaning, he isn't labelling this behaviour as scummy. Finally to end all this post, he FOS'd MouldyJeb with NO reasoning or whatsoever. He even took s0lstice analysis to back up his descsion, instead of using his unique arguments. Here, it clearly shows that his opinions are not more than a influence from other players. In just 6 minutes, CF passed from being okay for him, to ''omg might be suspicious''. And, where is his case against MJ anyways? Basically trackd00r is arguing that Golden brags about the task of writing stuff, that he explains events (maybe without making an opinion?? if i try to find an argument in his words, since golden doesn't really attack anyone in that post) and doesn't have unique arguments. In summary, Golden has been really inconsistent with his play The expectations I had from him are far from satisfactory, in function of what he has promised. In summary, he is willing to lynch three people, but he doesn't elaborate on why he thinks any of the three are suspicious. His arguments amount to not bringing anything to the table, and not playing satisfactorily. He votes golden, and makes a comment that if he comes back on time he'll vote to prevent a NL. He then does so, changing his vote to HeavOn. This was at the last minute, and HeavOn already had the majority, so the lynch was more or less set. He can't even argue that he didn't realize that HeavOn had the majority because prplhz had posted a list that clearly pointed this out just a few posts above. I've gone through trackd00r's play in detail, now I'd like to summarize the points and explain why each point is suspicious. 1. Soft aggression vs Mouldy early on but later says he's not convinced. Slightly important point because Mafia want to avoid all targetting the same people. 2. Goes after Crossfire and Golden. Crossfire was a sort of easy bandwagon since so many players were after him. The Golden push is suspicious because so few people targeted him, one of whom was HeavOnEarth. 3. Does not comment on HeavOnEarth at all until the very very end. Definitely scum motivation for avoiding this. trackd00r was around back when s0lstice first started his push on HeavOnEarth. That was when trackd00r was pushing his cases against Crossfire and Golden. 4. His cases are all weak. He never points out scummy play despite singling out the three people who he would push for a lynch. His arguments are weak and consist of not contributing and not playing 'satisfactorily'. There's no townie motivation that late in the day to simply target people for unsatisfactory play, as opposed to finding scummy play. There is plenty of scum motivation to try to find something, anything, to attack, while not putting themselves fully on the radar. 5. He bandwagons at the last minute on HeavOnEarth. A pointless move. His analysis is flaky. He says, "I must admit that he looks suspicious at this stage of the game." Trackd00r has been noncommital, he's been weakly targetting people for playing unsatisfactorily as opposed to playing scummy. He went for the easy target of Crossfire, and you can argue he tried to push a bandwagon on Golden with HeavOn. He refused to comment on HeavOn, and comes back at the last minute to appear like he's supporting town by voting against HeavOn as the last, and wholly unnecessary vote. I am posting this now because I have no life and I really should be doing something else but I'm here reading filters and writing extremely long posts instead. I figure I'll get this out there now and let people mull over my thoughts. I'm interested in other people's opinions of who might be scum. I (and I kid you not) quickly went through everyone's filters and I picked the most scummy looking person of the bunch to target. I wonder if someone can point out other scummy stuff that I missed. Cheers. | ||
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Uh.. regarding night actions I don't know. I honestly haven't even considered them yet cuz a) last game I died day 1 and b) we didn't even have any blues. Sooo.. I will comment on night actions in the morning when I wake up. It seems like a really relevant topic so I want to explain why I posted a giant scumhunting thread and then didn't talk about night actions at all. Well that's the reason. See you guys in like 8 hours. | ||
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Yes, I did vote you, but you forget that votes are easily removable, and the fact that you had to write a sensationalist paragraph in red text rather then just poke through the obvious logical holes in my cases convince me that you have something to lose, whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play. sciberbia quoted this post and pointed out that he doesn't see any logical holes in rofl's play, and that he doesn't think rofl did either. The part I find strange is not whether or not rofl saw 'logical holes', but how there's an implicit expectation that alan would 'poke through' those 'obvious logical holes'. As a townie you make your cases with as few logical holes as possible so that you can put the most pressure on your target and force out information. You don't want, and certainly don't expect, those holes to be pointed out. As scum, though, you know that your arguments have holes in them, this kind of wording comes out a lot more naturally. It's also telling that he straight up admits that his case was full of holes, which serves to ease the pressure off of him for making such a weak case (weak in his mind). The list of potential mafia is also very strange. It also has the trait of looking like he's contributing without actually contributing anything at all. Also take a look at this post: You've defeated yourself in your own argument against me, with the explanation as to why I backed down on alan133. I backed down because I hadn't received any support towards my case. You also defeated yourself by saying that I'm trying to keep myself out of the spotlight, if I wanted that, I wouldn't have been the third person to post a case, let alone one I knew would net me a bunch of flak. I made the case to put pressure on someone that was lacking any real opinion, whether because he felt that there wasn't enough data to form one, or because he was hiding from the spotlight himself. The evidence or suspicions that you have brought up can be answered so easily I'm not sure why you didn't come up with them yourself. I wrote down early on in my personal notes how the 'you defeated yourself' lines seemed like a very scum-like thing to do. Rather than simply defending himself, he uses Milton's words against him, to further discredit Milton. I find that full of scum motivation. After all, if you can use a player's words against them, it feels like your case is a lot stronger. "I backed down because I hadn't received any support towards my case" is also not very townie. Town motivation is to convince people to agree with your case. If you don't get support but you still feel your points are valid, you continue to press. The fact that rofl is so concerned about having support is very fitting for scum. All in all, I agree that rofl looks extremely scummy and the #1 candidate for vig shot or Day 2 lynch. It seems we have reached a strong consensus on who scum #2 is. Before the night is over, I think we should start talking about other candidates for the day 2 lynch to gain a more broad discussion before the night is over. In particular, I would like to ask for opinions on my case against trackd00r. | ||
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Look at how she dances around. She explains what was going through her head in 3 different ways: -I knew the case was weak when I posted it -I didn't know the case was weak until people told me after I posted it -I thought my case may have been weak, but I was just trying to get the discussion going. It's a matter of degrees. I pushed my case against trackd00r so early on day 1, I wasn't expecting it to be that strong. At the same time, I wasn't expecting it to be so weak that everyone can just say 'I agree that the case has no merit'. Thus, I knew the case was weak. I thought it may be weak but I was trying to get the discussion going. I didn't know the case was as weak as it was until after I read the responses. I see no contradiction or 'dancing' here. It is her stated reason for wanting to appear aggressive that makes it a scum-slip instead. Wanting to start the thread off boldly is a scum slip as much as wanting to get discussion rolling ASAP is a scum slip. Her case on alan133: Your analysis comes down to, my case wasn't bad. I really went after the read. When I switched my vote you said I drop the case like it's hot. I clearly stated the reasons for dropping the case, and it makes no sense for me, as town, to go after alan who started acting in a way that negated my case against him. She parrots the reasons for pardoning alan133 pretty effectively, and actually does some grunt work by adding to the case on her teammate before jumping aboard. The fact of it is though, even after all of that she looks like a shapeshifter. She's very aware of what is making her look town and adjusts accordingly. Trackd00r doesn't look scummy? Get off trackd00r. Alan133 is looking town? Get off alan. HeavOnEarth is looking scummy? Get on HeavOnEarth. Adding the case to my 'teammate' by bussing him is a funny way to phrase 'finds more solid evidence against a potential scum'. You are saying I adjust my actions accordingly to what make me look town... But the simplest explanation is that I am town, and I'm acting like a town should. I pressured both trackd00r and alan, and backed down when I found my cases weren't valid anymore. I did my research on HeavOnEarth and voted him based on my own reads. Following the lynch of her 1st teammate, and the certain death of her 2nd teammate, she is back to full throttle on trackd00r, with no in between. This is consistent with my playstyle this entire game. Here is her 'backing Crossfire up.' ... To me that looks like: I don't know. Rather than calling his behaviour suspicious, I gave a null read (pending further information), where I rebute some of the arguments against Crossfire and state that he's not playing like he did the previous game as Mafia. I also noted that his helpful tone was consistent with his helpful tone in the mafia QT, 'which makes me feel more inclined to think that he's actually trying to help'. Regarding my current case on trackd00r, four of my points you said 'could be scummy, could be newb/busy town'. You call it a contrived case yet you admit that my points can be seen as scummy. A decent scum isn't going to make one big mistake, they're going to make a bunch of small mistakes that all add up later. The fact that I can find so many examples of possibly scummy behaviour, but no real actions that have good town motivation is suspicious. I'd rather call him out on it than just assume he's a noob town. Also: 4- Weak arguments can be scummy. They can also be newb town. Just ask our newcomer Unforgiven, who made some kick-ass reads but couldn't argue them effectively. The difference between Unforgiven and trackd00r is unforgiven had no reservations about labelling people as scum and pressuring them. He just couldn't or wouldn't explain his thoughts. Trackd00r did not call out any of his three primary targets for scummy or suspicious behaviour, and then conceded that HeavenOnEarth was suspicious at the very end of day 1. This is a non-opinion opinion. She lists points for and against, dances around a hard stance. This is what scum looks like when they talk about their teammates with no public opinion to go off of. Remember that shapeshifter thing I was talking about? She goes from 0 to 60 on this guy, when the thread was telling her it was time to. Add another: she busses the shit out of her other teammate roflwaffles just after the paint dries on target painted on him. I was busy with my case against alan at the time, and a quick read over his filter didn't ring any warning bells. I have nothing to say on roflwaffle. You can call it bussing or you can call it agreeing with a well-presented case. Summary: She made a big blunder early game with her first case, contradicting herself and retreating from it as if it was leprous. Following that, she basically bounces around like a ping-pong ball, based on the current temperature of the thread. She is aggressive when she feels it's safe, and withdraws when it's not. All-in-all I feel she played a pretty good game, but the evidence is still bountiful. Did not contradict myself. I do not think I blundered. I did not bounce around. I analysed the game and based on my judgement I focused my attention on the one person I believed was the most scum, and I didn't let off until I was convinced otherwise. The only evidence against me is from viewing my actions from a biased point of view. I've played a strong town game, and you're trying to spin it like I'm playing a strong mafia game by playing a strong town game. As for trackd00r's self defense 1) Your argument about that says ''target the same people is wrong''. It varies from game to game, from context to context. In my first game, for example, I was town (bad played >.<) and in the third day pretty much 3 of the mafia players went against me, even though they lacked of anyone else's support. About mouldyJeb case, it was indeed suspicious, then I backed off my pressure to him because I considered that it was just confusing bad town play. Anyways, unforgiven has replaced him, so now we can see the same role but with hopefully understandable posts. You back off mouldy, possibly because it was just confusing bad town play, but also possibly because rofl and heavOn both were attacking him. 2) I don't get what you are trying to say here. You say that I go after crossfire because it was most affluent case, and then I go after golden because it had a few followers. Well, what player should you think I just push then? Because, those 2 conditions you mentioned are opposite one each other. I don't see any other option. Bandwagon on crossfire is scummy. Pushing golden when heavOnEarth is also pushing him is scummy. Like you said, mafia play varies from game to game, from context to context. The fact that you bandwagon on an obvious target and also attack a non-obvious target isnt suspicious. It's that you bandwagon weakly on an obvious target, and you attacked golden weakly alongside HeavOnEarth. 3) About heaven, I didn't really put a lot of attention to him. After quite a few people pushed the case, more logic I found on it. I didn't even had a read on him. Anyways, I was expecting to post some more, since in that time, his pressure against golden was quite interesting. A simple argument to make. Still suspicious considering all the other things you've been doing. 4) That's how I judge D1. People who don't actually contribute much anything, having the potential to give more elaborated opinions, are the ones which I wanted to push. About my play, I tried to do some questions, that didn't really get me to nowhere. I have to admit that my cases are weak, but again, that doesn't mean I'm mafia. * Trying to contribute is town play. * Appearing to contribute is mafia play. My argument is you didn't contribute at all, but you attempted to put on the appearance of contributing. In other words, mafia play. Out of everything this is the most important point. 5) You are basically underestimating the power of a vote. I want to emphasize your statement ''and wholly unnecessary vote''. Why do you think is was not necessary? For town, every vote counts. Just imagine, like a mafia massive vote switch in the last minute. Or, What If golden forgot to format his vote and it wasn't counted in? Any situations should be considered. I'm saying you look scum for jumping on at the last minute. Oh and by the way, I think you say that the vote was so unnecessary because you were 100% sure that Heaven was mafia. Interesting attempt to twist my words. I never said anything of the sort. I'm not convinced by either s0lstice's defense of trackd00r or trackd00r's defense of himself. I want to hear other people's thoughts on the matter. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + Sorry Suki, but I don't follow your logic. Why would I attack head on an obvious target? Wouldn't it be better to leave it there meanwhile I try to look for other targets which are actually more important? As mafia it makes sense to attack a target who is under suspicion by several players. I'm not sure what you mean by looking for targets which are more important. I hope that statement was a satire of s0lstice post, because you used his exactly same logic to prove your point, which you didn't because you haven't answered it yet. The argument is basically that its easy to pick out scum motivation with this play. I just realized something. Regarding mouldyjeb, your first and only post about him pre-lynch was, "Anyways, I can't tell if this is scum play or just plain bad town play". In your defense against my recent case against you, you reiterated this saying "I considered that it was just confusing bad town play". But your case against crossfire and golden was that they hadn't "brought anything new to the table", that their opinions were nothing more than an "influence from other players". That basically their play was 'unsatisfactory'. Why then, would you list crossfire and golden as lynch candidates, and not Mouldy who you clearly said and reiterated was playing confusing bad town play? I originally made the point to point out possible scum motivation, but delving further, I find this inconsistency really suspicious. Maybe you can chalk this up to noob town play on your part? You simply forgot that you found Mouldy's play confusing and bad when you were writing your 'unsatisfactory' cases against Crossfire and Golden? (While also forgetting to post your case on me, I might add) | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + Sorry Suki, but I don't follow your logic. Why would I attack head on an obvious target? Wouldn't it be better to leave it there meanwhile I try to look for other targets which are actually more important? As mafia it makes sense to attack a target who is under suspicion by several players. I'm not sure what you mean by looking for targets which are more important. I hope that statement was a satire of s0lstice post, because you used his exactly same logic to prove your point, which you didn't because you haven't answered it yet. The argument is basically that its easy to pick out scum motivation with this play. I just realized something. Regarding mouldyjeb, your first and only post about him pre-lynch was, "Anyways, I can't tell if this is scum play or just plain bad town play". In your defense against my recent case against you, you reiterated this saying "I considered that it was just confusing bad town play". But your case against crossfire and golden was that they hadn't "brought anything new to the table", that their opinions were nothing more than an "influence from other players". That basically their play was 'unsatisfactory'. Why then, would you list crossfire and golden as lynch candidates, and not Mouldy who you clearly said and reiterated was playing confusing bad town play? I originally made the point to point out possible scum motivation, but delving further, I find this inconsistency really suspicious. Maybe you can chalk this up to noob town play on your part? You simply forgot that you found Mouldy's play confusing and bad when you were writing your 'unsatisfactory' cases against Crossfire and Golden? (While also forgetting to post your case on me, I might add) | ||
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Also...... why austin? will have to analyse further later. Just checked for the night kill (And good job on the description zelblade or whoever wrote it, there was so much suspense, I pressed the arrow key on the scrollbar down line by line in anticipation T_____T ). Now I gotta run~ | ||
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It would be really really great if everyone who has not done so posts their response to my case on trackd00r. And trackd00r, for your defense against my case rather than come up with another point by point rebuttal, I would like you to demonstrate your ability to scum hunt and make solid reads against who you think should be the best day 2 lynch. Like I said, the thing I find most suspicious about you is that you haven't committed to any reads of scum or suspicious behaviour. Up to this point none of your posts look like they're actively helping town. Well, it's now Day 2, THREE people are dead. There should be plenty of evidence. You have no excuse now. | ||
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Firstly, I'm disappointed that nobody's commented on my case against trackd00r. I put a lot of time into it and I don't think my points are easily dismissed. Second, I'm disappointed that s0lstice is tunneling me so hard. My impressions of him are town, and he has made great reads in the past, but he is frankly wrong about me here. Sciberbia jumping on me means two influential townies are going to try their hardest to get me lynched and, as my defence has already been posted and disregarded, it seems they won't back off. My read on golden is that he is not suspicious. I looked through his filter and can't see anything bad. I believe alan is vigi. I believe sciberbia and s0lstice are both town as they have been playing a great game and have played consistent with what I saw from them in Mafia XV. Milton is also the same milton from XV. My read on Crossfire has already been posted and I believe he is more likely to be town than scum. I believe unforgiven is town, because he would have pushed for a better night target than austin since he is really good at reading people. (Regarding austin's NK I think it's just noise. There's no reason not to kill an influential townie on N1, except to sow confusion). That leaves trackd00r who I think is very suspicious. Now, I have not read in depth on everyone here. I spent a few hours putting together my case on trackd00r, as I spent a few hours putting my case on alan (and the subsequent follow ups). If find s0lstice's tunneling of me (and lack of comment on my defence) very strange. Maybe not suspicious, but strange. I feel that I've been upfront for this whole game. I've stated my suspicions boldly, presented my cases clearly. I've been wrong, about alan and about HeavOn (the so called 'scummy' defense of HeavOn) but that's not a scummy thing in itself. I'm being targeted because I haven't been scared of making mistakes, of calling people out, of changing my vote to who I think is the most scummy. I spend a lot of time on analysing the person I think is most suspicious rather than making shallow analysis on everyone who I think could be suspicious.. I have things to do tonight, I also have things to do tomorrow during the day so I won't have the time to do any heavy analysis prior to the lynch, although I will check the thread periodically. On trackd00r's most recent post: + Show Spoiler + @ Alan and All I actually like alan113's case. I must say that Golden answered very aggressively to alan's case. Compared of what I see in his previous posts, he was more relaxed while giving reads and stuff. I find his defense quite worrying: ''you are a retard.'' , ''i dont hold any undergraduate degree, i'm hardly a scholar.'' are points which clearly show a state of stress. While it is true that anyone can get defensive, I find it quite weird that Golden is acting like this, because after we killed two mafia in just 72 hours, it must be a very pleasant and comfortable time for us. Assuming that he is town, he should be pretty happy and calm in the search of looking for the last scum, but on the other hand... Golden reacts aggressively to Alan's attack. I don't find this state of stress a solid case against golden, as he had previously overreacted when austin accused him of not delivering on his promises. trackd00r's assumption that townies should be pleasant and comfortable ... is dumb. There is still one mafia left and we are still on a ticking time limit. He uses read text to illustrate that he is suspicious of golden, and to his credit he is pointing out suspicious behaviour rather than bad play.. But I find his argument weak and not all that suspicious, and he didn't even straight out say that he felt golden was acting suspiciously or scummy. This post does nothing to change my read against him. Neither s0lstice nor sciberbia (who both pretty much have the same case against me) have given my defence any credit or really even a response. No one except alan has really posted their in-depth thoughts on trackd00r. And trackd00r still hasn't delivered any useful posts in his own defence. I think I've gone through everything I need/want to say. | ||
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##vote trackd00r | ||
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Well, I don't know what to say. I guess trackd00r just caught me eye first. | ||
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So defending yourself is scummy? NOPE! In no way is defending yourself scummy. If you never defended yourself when you are town and this causes you to be lynched, you actually HURT the town. Her advice is actually good mafia advice. Ignore the case against you and hope it dies while pressuring others. never said that. thats just twisting my words. This isn't scummy. He is being attacked for being neutral and playing it safe, so to try to satisfy his critics he decides to throw out some suspicions. Eventually he will have to throw out his own suspicions, so he might as well do it when some people are attacking him for not having any to show that he is trying to play as a team. his suspicions target inconsistencies in his opponent's behaviour. ie 'i did this to you and you called it scummy, but look, you also did it to me, so how are your actions not scummy?' if you're going to throw out your suspicions, you should be doing it in a way that hilites scum/suspicious behaviour. pointing out these kind of inconsistencies isn't going to help the scum hunt and it only serves as a method of self defence. His stance is classic blue behavior. Stay in the background, read other people's cases and weigh their validity to inform his own decision on what night action to take. It is also not bad vanilla townie play (in some instances) in the sense that too many cases and suspects just confuse everyone. We only need to find one scum each day. Also, he went against his beliefs because people were pressuring him to give his suspicion, so to defend himself he gave his suspicions. i have no idea he's blue. you're judging me with information that i didn't have. it's also scummy to stay in the background, i was pressuring him to actually contribute to town. Being active and controversial generally means that there will be evidence to make a case against you. It is still early in the day and he never really wanted to be in the spotlight to begin with so he is unsure about his reads. not wanting to be in the spotlight is also mafia trait. I don't think your case against me is strong at all crossfire. It comes down a lot to knowing now that alan was blue, information that nobody had at that point in the game, and my pressure to force him to contribute more towards the town, as opposed to staying out of the spotlight. At this point, we know that he had good motivation for doing so because he was blue, but that's information we didn't have back then. | ||
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I take it as a huge compliment that you think I'd be up to playing such a risky/advanced level of scum. I have the unique perspective of having a town read on everybody (more or less), including myself, leaving the only likely suspect to be trackd00r. I also feel very strongly about my case on him (hence my disappointment that nobody's really commented on it), and his 'OOPS' post just confirms my suspicions. @sciberbia My suspicions toward you are a result of finding the most likely explanation. Either a,b, and c above are true because you are mafia, or they are true because you have had some bad luck and bad reads. I think the more likely explanation is the former. I just really have had bad luck and bad reads. I have to say, it feels pretty awful to put so much effort into hunting scum, only to keep missing. I'd love to go over my thoughts behind my moves this game, but I'll do that post-game so I don't clog up the thread when we really need to focus on lynching scum. | ||
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Mafia is a game whose landscape changes as the game progresses. Town gets more information the longer the game goes and thus more powerful, mafia gets weaker as they must always cover their tracks. Agreeing to a four-day set plan discounts all the information that you will get during each successive lynch/night kill. | ||
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People will be taking a much closer look at me. It's to be expected, after the case that s0lstice and sciberbia brought up. I feel I pushed a good case on trackd00r and its frustrating that he wasn't able to defend himself adequately. I once again went through all the players in the game. I think I am just going to accept the hard truth that I just blow at analysis. My reasoning for tunnelling someone aggressively is that if there really are other scummy players, they will be picked out by the other townies, meanwhile my analysis will either find scum, or force townies to act more townie, or force mistakes from scum. There are two people who stand out at the moment in my opinion: --- Mouldyjeb/unforgiven: + Show Spoiler + Both HeavOnEarth and roflwaffle were on Mouldyjeb's case since Day 1. Highly highly doubt that they would double bus their own teammate that early. Read: unforgiven very lurky. Possibly town, possibly scum, but can't analyse due to lack of posts. He looks more townie due to mafia double bus early Day 1. --- golden: Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game. despite saying this, he is hardly aggressive. Found Mouldyjeb suspicious. Found austinmcc suspicious but doesn't explain why. Austinmcc pressured golden for 'broken promises to contribute more'. Golden got really really offended at it. Could see an angry golden just shooting austinmcc N1 just to get back at him. Haha. I only glazed over the HeavonEarth issue when i was catching up on everything. I feel like a nob because i remember he had that attack at me and i never really addressed it. I don't like defensive voting per se but i'll form and post some opinions on him shortly. forgets that heavOnEarth attacked him. Possibly just didn't give his teammate's post much thought. from crossfire's lynch summary post ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15090823 ), note that Golden was 6th to vote for heav0nEarth. Right in the middle of the pack is a good time for a mafia to jump on a bandwagon. Here is alan's case on golden ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15104147 , summary here : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15104403 ) It is pretty in depth and I suggest people read it. . Also note that golden gave no reason for jumping on trackd00r. He simply stated he said trackd00r was #1 on his scum list and voted him. ===== In summary: I am town. That's my only defence at this point. If you believe me, then I hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. If you don't believe me, then I still hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. Going to bed soon but I'll keep up with the thread and post my thoughts. Just a little too burned out to do any sort of heavy analysis right now. | ||
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Plus people have pretty much cleared golden and unforgiven, which were the two people I suggested as most suspicious. What this means is, we are looking at risky mafia play early on day 1. Maybe even an extremely convincing bus of a teammate to gain townie credibility. I beseech you guys, even if you are 100% sure I am the last mafia, you have to have to have to keep analysing for the last mafia, because I am town and when you lynch me I will bleed green. Don't waste the entire day patting yourselves on the back for catching scum suki cuz you'll be unpleasantly surprised come nightfall =[ | ||
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I don't know. Now that you put it that way, it seems so unlikely. HeavOnEarth doesn't seem like a sophisticated player that would do something like that. Golden also doesn't seem like he'd be around enough to orchestrate that sort of thing. You can lynch me, but it's not going to do town any good. | ||
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Both roflwaffle and heavonearth do not strike me as that sophisticated of players. Thus, I don't think that there was any plan for cooperation from the start between the two dead scum and our last remaining one. The most likely scenario is that Scum #3 is a strong player, who decided that it would be in his best interest to bus both of his teammates early to gain extreme townie cred. This strategy worked well in XV with Xatalos taking the win, although he did make some slips early on that could have exposed him if people had looked into him more in depth. Of course, an early bus or even double bus is so risky for mafia that it seems really unlikely, but that is the situation we are in now. It doesn't matter if you believe me now. When I flip, you can come back to these words and think carefully. --- The most important lesson to be learned in mafia XV was that the pattern of night kills, and townie's impressions of night kills, was very important to discovering that Xatalos was the last mafia. If player X was heavily tunneling player Y, and player X gets shot, does that mean player Y was scum? or maybe thats just what scum wants you to think. The town attitude in XV was that decyphering the meaning behind night kills was so WIFOMy that it wasn't worth doing. This lead to mafia being able to shoot the strongest player every night without fear of having the night shot analysed. At the very end, Xatalos shot the one person who was against him, thus securing a win because he knew the other two remaining players wouldn't analyse the shot and realize that the shot only made sense if he made it, not the #1 suspect at the time. We saw austinmcc get shot N1. Someone will get shot N2. These shots have meaning, and just because it's WIFOMy doesn't mean its not worth discussing. If the last remaining mafia was bold enough to start the game with a double bus, they most likely won't slip, and they might not even have any suspicious behaviour if they are good enough. The last remaining source of information is the pattern of NK's. Don't forget that. | ||
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Secondly, she gains town cred for appearing aggressive even if she doesn't get the lynch. It seems like a win/win scenario for scum unless of course someone makes the analysis I'm making now. Milton seems focused on how I get town cred for getting aggressive. Town cred is something that scum think of a lot but town don't really care about. Notice how Milton is trying to give himself credibility with the last sentence for pointing out the possible scum-motivation behind my posts. + Show Spoiler + Miltonkram: roflwaffles55 I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia: Notice the eager to please tone of his post. I'm looking at it as a possible scumslip. His 2nd suspicious post: Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight. roflwaffle: You've defeated yourself in your own argument against me, with the explanation as to why I backed down on alan133. I backed down because I hadn't received any support towards my case. You also defeated yourself by saying that I'm trying to keep myself out of the spotlight, if I wanted that, I wouldn't have been the third person to post a case, let alone one I knew would net me a bunch of flak. I made the case to put pressure on someone that was lacking any real opinion, whether because he felt that there wasn't enough data to form one, or because he was hiding from the spotlight himself. The evidence or suspicions that you have brought up can be answered so easily I'm not sure why you didn't come up with them yourself. Miltonkram: @ roflwaffles Ok, I see what you're saying. I thought you were completely backing off of alan even though you've made a decent case against him. I still don't like the fact that you took your vote off of him based on a wrist-slap from Crossfire, but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy. As far as alan133 is concerned I think you may have something. He's put very little pressure on anyone. When he does pressure he seems wishy-washy as hell. Miltonkram had a little back and forth between himself and roflwaffle. Notice how easily roflwaffle deflects Milton's case against him, as if the arguments Milton made were meant to be deflected. Now notice how milton just gives him the green light. However... Milton says, "I thought you were completely backing off of alan... but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy." I don't see how Milton could have taken that away from rofl's post. Rofl straight up said he backed down. There was no mention of still pursuing his case against roflwaffle. Milton seems to be justifying rofl's actions for him, while saying that rofl seems less scummy. In the same post, he renews rofl's case against alan. "I think you may have something." Soft support of his teammate? if suki and roflwaffles were both scum they were essentially going all in on bussing HeavOnEarth blowing any chance that town mislynches D1. Blowing such a chance seems like a pretty gutsy play so maybe she learned well from Xatalos, but I'm not entirely convinced. This is a possible slip. It describes his behaviour perfectly. He also references Xatalos' play from XV, meaning he's perfectly aware that this was a valid strategy to do this game. Maybe this is too WIFOMy, but I feel like the safe play for scum would have been to have one player voting HeavOnEarth in order to gain some of the town cred in case he got lynched and one player voting someone else in order to keep a little momentum towards a possible mislynch. sciberbia pointed this out, but it happens in the same post as the quote above. It describes his play perfectly. | ||
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sciberbia on Milton's bussing of HeavOnEarth: Milton only puts down his suspicions after both s0lstice and sciberbia have labelled HeavOnEarth as suspicious. And he does it as a 1 of 3 list. s0lstice on Milton: "If Milton is scum, the second bus was easy as hell. By the time he chimed in, rofl's death was essentially a foregone conclusion" | ||
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It doesn't make sense for a scum suki to go full out for a mislynch, either that of Alan on Day1 or Trackd00r Day 2. As you can see, the fallout of being wrong is really really bad. Not only that, but I hadn't even set up 'possibly suspicious' players to go after my mislynches failed. If you really think that I could play a strong mafia game, you should also believe that I'd be good enough to be able to gracefully recover when things go awry. You can, however, easily find townie motivation behind my tunnelling. As you saw, both of my targets turned out to be blues. They tried to keep out of the spotlight and avoid making strong reads, and it was for these reasons that I targeted them. With alan, I was successful and his contributions convinced me to change my vote. I may not have been good at hunting scum, but I was good at digging out the non-committal behaviour of blues, I guess. | ||
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The important thing is if the game starts getting closer to the end, it because really important to analyse the night kills and not just WIFOM it all away. And also, it's highly highly probable that there's a scum slip somewhere, no matter how good they are. So just keep looking for those slips and keep the night kills in mind for later. | ||
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dont know how i messed that up. | ||
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roflwaffles wasn't under heavy scrutiny at that point. scum sciberbia has no real motivation to bus his last teammate so quickly, with a case so strong that it basically would have killed all conversation for Day 2 (had vigi not shot him). Also, I don't see scum sciberbia shooting austin. Since sciberbia already had a lot of townie cred, it would have made a lot more sense to shoot someone like s0lstice, or alan or even trackd00r (the latter two showing non-commital, defensive play much like a blue would play). He wouldn't need to make a confusing kill. He could play straightforward and shoot obvious targets. Well, we'll see how N2 turns out. I only gave your case on sciberbia a quick once-over. A more in depth analysis will have to wait for tomorrow. | ||
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Unlike everyone else in the game, unforgiven has hardly any filter to analyse. He is a lurker in every sense of the word. In addition, I think s0lstice's words have a lot of weight now that he is dead. He had some good analysis on unforgiven, especially regarding moderator actions, and the timing of the moderators asking for night actions. Notice that unforgiven has already given an excuse to be away for the next 3 days. He has an established excuse to keep lurking. And unlike everyone else who is active in this game, unforgiven's filter isn't going to get much bigger, he isn't going to slip like an active scum slips. Notice that we are already out of good lynch targets, me aside. Town is already starting to point fingers at sciberbia, who was, up until the end of Day 2, one of the strongest townies in the game. An unforgiven lynch of s0lstice makes sense. N1 he lynched a potential blue, because all the strongest townies had a bad read on him. N2, he lynches the townie who made the strongest case against him. I realize that coming from the most suspicious person in the game at the moment, my words won't mean much. At this point in time, with strong townie reads on everybody and no solid scum leads, I feel my best move at this point is to lynch the lurker. I realize that I gave a half-hearted case against golden after trackd00r bled blue. I also added my thoughts on milton possibly being scum after sciberbia brought it up. Both of my arguments have been discredited, and also ignored. My morale took a huge hit after trackd00r died. I don't have any more faith in my play. Here's the question that I'm asking myself: When I don't have any good scum reads, who is more dangerous scum in the end game? A lurker, or a contributing player? s0lstice's case against unforgiven makes sense to me. Since I know I am town, I already know that we're in a situation where mafia performed an early bus or even double bus. Given that, it seems that the weak cases made by scum against unforgiven, along with unforgiven/mouldyjeb not being modkilled TWICE, makes him the more likely suspect. Second, I would go after Milton, as the timing on bussing his potential scum teammates makes sense. I will finish my post by simply saying this. You can believe me or not. If you don't believe me it will cost you a mislynch (of me) to find out. If for some reason the voting is not in a majority at the end of the day, I will change my vote to lynch the most popular candidate in order to prevent a NL, as that would be even worse for town than a mislynch of me. Until then: ##vote unforgiven_ve | ||
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On June 19 2012 13:14 alan133 wrote: @suki To me, a suki night kill of s0Lstice makes more sense, especially seeing how you immediately talk about his case. During the night, you supported 2 cases, one on Milton and one on Golden.You even commented on MJ/unforgiven here: You seems to change your stance very quickly, and you're currently attacking the easiest target right now based on the most recent dead guy's story. I realize that I am bouncing around now. I think it has to do with just losing all faith in my own judgement, in addition to no one's really listening to me anyways. I still want to post my reads, still want to try to contribute my thoughts when people bring up cases. I still want to believe I can help push for a victory, instead of crawling into a hole and disappearing for the rest of the game because no one will believe me. You just slipped the same way rolfwaffle did: IMO, when I don't have any good scum reads, I will judge who is more scummy/townie and do the process of elimination. Read their filter, and look for clues like:
Of course there are many more. If I still have no reads, I revert and try to stay neutral, and reevaluate everyone based on new interactions. Call them out, get their reaction. Like I said in rolfwaffle's "The nail in the coffin" case, only Scums have the motivation to look it this way: Who is more dangerous if left alive No, and actually I distinctly thought of rofl's slip when I wrote that. The thing is, the situation is different now. When rofl slipped, it was Day 1 and there weren't many cases to be made. He made a list of who was most dangerous to keep alive when there was a clear chance of hunting scum. I feel that this case is different because pretty much everyone can be read as town. The case against me has been getting stronger and stronger, and even though there have been cases that have been made against Milton, Golden and even sciberbia, the case against me remains the only strong one (aside from unforgiven, whose is increasingly coming to people's attention). The thing is, I'm town. I know this, even if no one else knows this. And if I'm town and everyone looks like town to everyone else, then there's a problem. The problem is no one will look particularly scummy once I am mislynched. In a situation like mine, where no one looks scummy, wouldn't you agree that a lurker is extremely dangerous? If the lurker is a mafia, then town will rip itself apart trying to find the last mafia while the lurker gets a free ride simply because their short filter looks mostly townie. On the other hand, if the lurker gets taken out, all the ones who remain are players who have been active throughout the game. It's much easier to find scummy behaviour in an active player's filter. It's much easier to analyse the night kills as well. In short, my words may seem similar to rofl's but the meaning that they carry is different. In addition, my perspective is unique, because only I know my own alignment. So if you think I'm guilty, then your perspective is everyone looks town except suki, therefore she must be the last scum. I can't argue that perspective, but I can implore you to still consider other options rather than pat yourselves on the back as if the game will be over once you lynch me. Now you have lost your last supporter, which I assume scum Suki would want to keep alive if there is any chance for her to escape a lynch. I would feel like a dumbass getting the wrong reads on you 3 times, but your lynch is unavoidable now, if you are the last mafia, I suggest you to out with it already, I won't change my mind this time till you spill green, that's when you are lynched. Do you concede as the last mafia? The case on unforgiven has merit. In addition, if unforgiven remains alive after today, he may continue to remain alive as the game progresses, because his play isn't going to look any scummier if he continues lurking. I'm still going to be here. The case against me will still remain, and grow bigger as I continue to post. Basically, if you think I'm scummy, still have a really good look at unforgiven and at the case against him and decide how likely it is that he's scum. Then, vote for who you think is most likely to bleed red. But please consider other cases, not just mine, because the game won't end if I die. | ||
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In the end, there wasn't really a slip, but I do think s0lstice's point that the moderator actions are a big hint at unforgiven's real role has a lot of merit. In addition, I'd like to point out that in Mafia XV, unforgiven never once claimed that he was vanilla town or even town, despite being a VT. In that game unforgiven got a lot of heat for his posting style (which was pretty anti-town and confusing), but he never tried to claim VT/town and use that as an excuse. | ||
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Observers don't know the roles, but the hosts (including zelblade) do. Xatalos' quote doesn't give us any information, so lets not analyse it too deeply. Again to reference Mafia XV, in the obs QT late in the game one of the cohosts posted 'One person's play is really impressing me right now'. The observers used the time of posting of that line and compared it to who had posted most recently in the main thread and came to a conclusion who was the last mafia. There would have been no way for the players to garner any information if an observer had said 'the mods slipped in the obs qt'. What I'm trying to say is there's nothing to gain from analysing possible observer knowledge or observer reading. We should stick with what we know from the thread. | ||
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Now there are two things about last game's unforgiven that I remember. The first is, you got frustrated at everyone and started insulting people when they wouldn't listen to you, and you refused to explain your reads half the time. The second is, you were right for pretty much the entire game. You called me out almost instantly for being scum, and you called heist and Xatalos out really early too. You are really good at reading people and scum hunting. So in order to get yourself out of this situation I want to see you analyse the remaining players in the game and tell me who you think is scum, and why. If you really are scum, I have no doubt that you'll slip. If you're town, then you'll be able to help with a town victory. And if you somehow fail to convince us, then either the game will end come lynch time or your reads will help us secure a victory for the town in the end. | ||
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To everyone, re-read s0lstice's case on MouldyJeb and unforgiven: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15139936 s0lstice's case was based not just on unforgiven's filter and playstyle, but also MouldyJeb's filter and playstyle. Both players made weak reads. MouldyJeb made a crap case against rofl. Unforgiven labels austin as possibly scum just before austin gets NK'd. In addition: I agree with s0lstice that this sort of soft defence is extremely fishy. . In response to unforgiven's self defence, one thing stands out to me: its so easy to change your style of play its makes it a waste of time (at least for me) ... I don't buy this statement. I had a quick glance through unforgiven's first game as mafia, and between his playstyle as mafia and playstyle as town, he is playing a style much more similar to the former. He lurks a lot in the first game, and he gives excuses why he's busy. This was consistent with his playstyle up until he started getting under heavy pressure. Note too that the way that we are criticizing his play is not purely a stylistic choice, it's also based on his personality. He's being too helpful as opposed to harshly criticizing bad play and bad reads. It just feels off. I see both scum and town motivation for the way unforgiven has been acting after s0stice's death, but the fact of the matter is that the gameplay before that by BOTH players is suspicious. I like the case against unforgiven. Analysis on other players will have to wait until later. Gotta go to work. @alan My targets on day 1 weren't random. I tunnelled you and forced you to contribute and I agreed upon HeavOn after reviewing the case against him. You could view it as 'bandwagoning' but the reasons are very clear and not random at all. | ||
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I'm a bit disappointed unforgiven. I was almost convinced that you were town, but your tunnelling of sciberbia is weak and not conducive to the town. Your attempts to be abrasive seem hollow and made as a direct response to our accusations. Four hours remain before the lynch. We have four votes on unforgiven so as long as no one moves their vote we will avoid a NL. Golden and Crossfire are missing, which is extremely disappointing. I have a case for the next day if unforgiven bleeds green. I'd love to post it soon or even have posted it early this morning but work has kept me occupied all day. I'll post it as soon as I can but I think I have a pretty good case, so I don't want to rush it. | ||
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It's because both of your names start with S and both of you are strong townies. So mentally you're in the same category. Anyways I'm back from work. I'll start writing up my analysis now in case unforgiven is townie. | ||
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I apologize. I had a feeling in my gut that you were town after you started posting, but there was still that possibility in the back of my mind. I trusted in s0lstice's read, and I wanted to believe that the mod behaviour was a slip up. Now that unforgiven has flipped town, there is one person that stands out to me from everyone else as suspicious. That player is Miltonkram. To start, I want to rehash sciberbia's case on Miltonkram. + Show Spoiler + 1. He states suspicions on roflwaffle, but backs off quickly so that rofl isn't really in danger from Milton's actions. 2. He throws a bunch of suspicions on people who are town, which "isn't damning but isn't exactly comforting either." 3. He contributes to lynch HeavOnEarth, by putting HeavOnEarth into his "top 3" after only sciberbia and s0lstice have accused him. To s0lstice, a miltonkram bus of HeavOnEarth seems by far the most likely out of all possible buses. 4. Miltonkram was gone almost the entire night of night 1, which fits the theory about scum not submitting their NK until last minute. He also says that the NK doesn't make a lot of sense no matter who ordered it. More on that later. He finally concludes the Milton is probably town, but possibly could be scum. Unfortunately, s0lstice didn't give detailed thoughts on Miltonkram before he died, but he did leave this one gem: Just something to consider... If Milton is scum, the second bus was easy as hell. By the time he chimed in, rofl's death was essentially a foregone conclusion. Then really, the only one he bussed was heavonearth. Bussing one of your teammates when an influential townie is calling for their death is a logical play. After these posts, I put in my two cents (which I will simply re-include as part of this analysis). Alan posts his case on Golden, and Crossfire posts his case on sciberbia. No one comments on Miltonkram and Miltonkram didn't post any defence. I would have liked to see his defence, but sciberbia said 'you don't have to post a defence', so the lack of defence isn't suspicious in itself. s0lstice then posts his case on unforgiven which is the main topic for the rest of the night and day. No one even talked about Miltonkram until unforgiven brought him up in his one big post. His points were as follows: 1. He tries to buddy up with alan 2. He's never been pressured. He's never really pressured anyone. (related to sciberbia's point #1 and #2 above) 3. He was nervous prior to HeavOn's lynch. More on this later 4. He tries to gain townie credit when rofl starts coming under fire. (see s0lstice's comment on bus timing above) Miltonkram posts a reasonable defence. Now that I've gone through the previous cases against Miltonkram, let me begin my case. My Case Against Miltonkram I will begin by analyzing the night kills. + Show Spoiler + I have a theory that both night kill targets were made with the same motivation - To point town towards a lynch target for the next day. Why Austin?? Austin pushed his case against Crossfire when everyone jumped on HeavOnEarth. s0lstice's dying words were against unforgiven. We didn't listen to the first "suggestion" because the case against rofl was so strong. Had rofl not been immediately strung up on the gallows, we may have really gone after Crossfire. We did listen to the second suggestion, and killed the NK target's biggest suspect. The first kill could also have had the secondary purpose of finding a blue. The second kill's secondary purpose was targetting a strong townie. Why s0lstice and not sciberbia? Because s0lstice was wrong, both about unforgiven and about me (who he'd probably go after, after unforgiven died). Sciberbia only had his finger pointed at me. In short, it makes sense for Milton to make this kind of play. I feel it explains a scum Milton's thought process, something which has confused us for the whole time. ----- The vote timings Here is what I said previously: sciberbia on Milton's bussing of HeavOnEarth: Milton only puts down his suspicions after both s0lstice and sciberbia have labelled HeavOnEarth as suspicious. And he does it as a 1 of 3 list. s0lstice on Milton: "If Milton is scum, the second bus was easy as hell. By the time he chimed in, rofl's death was essentially a foregone conclusion" I think the vote timings for scum Milton make perfect sense, and don't involve an insta-bus (of roflwaffles) out of nowhere like a scum sciberbia case does. Milton voted trackdoor as his #1 scum read after I made my big post against trackd00r. His main reasons being the voteswitch, and his weak pressure on other players. Right after he posts: EBWOP: This isn't a strong point, so I'm not hinging my opinions on it. . Milton then remained quiet until the case on unforgiven got attention. He is sure that unforgiven is scum now, and his main reasons are HeavOnEarth's awkward bus of MJ and unforgiven claiming VT. Notice that in the period between austin/rofl getting lynched until now, Milton has not pressured anyone. He has only chimed when there's a strong case against someone, writes up some support info, and then votes for the target. In other words, Milton is taking an easy bandwagon ride on every lynch. ----- My next point, a strange comment in his back and forth with roflwaffles: + Show Spoiler + Miltonkram: roflwaffles55 I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia: Notice the eager to please tone of his post. I'm looking at it as a possible scumslip. His 2nd suspicious post: Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight. roflwaffle: You've defeated yourself in your own argument against me, with the explanation as to why I backed down on alan133. I backed down because I hadn't received any support towards my case. You also defeated yourself by saying that I'm trying to keep myself out of the spotlight, if I wanted that, I wouldn't have been the third person to post a case, let alone one I knew would net me a bunch of flak. I made the case to put pressure on someone that was lacking any real opinion, whether because he felt that there wasn't enough data to form one, or because he was hiding from the spotlight himself. The evidence or suspicions that you have brought up can be answered so easily I'm not sure why you didn't come up with them yourself. Miltonkram: @ roflwaffles Ok, I see what you're saying. I thought you were completely backing off of alan even though you've made a decent case against him. I still don't like the fact that you took your vote off of him based on a wrist-slap from Crossfire, but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy. As far as alan133 is concerned I think you may have something. He's put very little pressure on anyone. When he does pressure he seems wishy-washy as hell. Miltonkram had a little back and forth between himself and roflwaffle. Notice how easily roflwaffle deflects Milton's case against him, as if the arguments Milton made were meant to be deflected. Now notice how milton just gives him the green light. However... Milton says, "I thought you were completely backing off of alan... but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy." I don't see how Milton could have taken that away from rofl's post. Rofl straight up said he backed down. There was no mention of still pursuing his case against roflwaffle. Milton seems to be justifying rofl's actions for him, while saying that rofl seems less scummy. In the same post, he renews rofl's case against alan. "As far as alan133 concerned I think you may have something." Soft support of his teammate? ---- Next, Milton making observations on scum actions and motivations that actually perfectly fit the way he's been playing: if suki and roflwaffles were both scum they were essentially going all in on bussing HeavOnEarth blowing any chance that town mislynches D1. Blowing such a chance seems like a pretty gutsy play so maybe she learned well from Xatalos, but I'm not entirely convinced. This is a possible slip. It describes his behaviour perfectly. He also references Xatalos' play from XV, meaning he's perfectly aware that this was a valid strategy to do this game. Maybe this is too WIFOMy, but I feel like the safe play for scum would have been to have one player voting HeavOnEarth in order to gain some of the town cred in case he got lynched and one player voting someone else in order to keep a little momentum towards a possible mislynch. sciberbia pointed this out, but it happens in the same post as the quote above. It describes his play perfectly and could be another slip. ------ His nervousness pre-lynch of HeavOn: @ Heaven There are a lot of people jumping on your case really quickly. Not gonna lie, it's making me a little nervous. Please post some sort of defense or at the very least what kind of reads you have on players whenever you have the time. This quote reminds me a LOT of a quote by Xatalos in Mafia XV: Suki, where are you when you need to defend yourself? The bandwagon on you is gathering steam, but you're nowhere to be seen. And I don't even think you're Mafia. Do a favor for everyone and show up right now. This was what Xatalos posted in the game when there was a bandwagon growing on me while I was away. Basically, it's a last-ditch effort for mafia to tell their teammate to post, JUST IN CASE they weren't checking the mafia QT but were checking the main thread. When Milton posted this, it stuck out to me as really odd. Now I think this is a pure scum slip, disguised to be a 'helpful townie' post. There is definite mafia motivation for this post, but not really any townie motivation. Now contrast this with his certainty of trackd00r and unforgiven being scum. There has been no hesitation in his reads, no questioning of who could possibly be mafia. The person on the chopping block has been his main read every time. IN SUMMARY Motivation for both night kills can be found for a scum Miltonkram Milton's bussing of his two teammates can be explained by reasonable mafia play that doesn't involve extreme early actions. Milton's strange interpretation/soft defense of rofl's words Milton's lack of commentary on any player except those with strong cases against them. Milton's nervousness pre-lynch of HeavOnEarth... ... Contrasted with Milton's confidence in finding the last scum each lynch, when we're approaching a situation where everyone looks townie. This is my case against Miltonkram. Come daytime I will vote for him. I can't see sciberbia or crossfire as scum. I can't see HeavOnEarth pressuring a scum Golden the way he did. Milton is now the last and only suspect in my mind. | ||
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I've been very busy so I haven't had a chance to look closely at sciberbia's filter, but I have two reasons why he can't be mafia. First, it doesn't make sense for him to hard bus roflwaffle as soon as HeavOnEarth got lynched, and he's played a solid town game with a lot of strong analysis that would be hard to keep up as a mafia. Second, in my gut I feel he genuinely started feeling bad after I posted my defence and subsequent requests to keep analysing despite being convinced I was mafia. I really think a mafia sciberbia wouldn't be so affected. @sciberbia Please read my case on miltonkram. You say Milton 'feels townie', despite not contributing to town since rofl's death. The only point in the game where he really pressured others was prior to trackd00r's death, and it was only weak pressure at that. He hasn't shared his thoughts on you or me or golden or crossfire for a very long time. He's managed to stay out of the spotlight for the entire game with a townie read on him. Meanwhile I have been in the spotlight the whole game and it seems people's opinions on my scumminess go back and forth. All of the evidence against me has been circumstantial - the targets I really went down hard on have turned out to be blue, and I wasn't one of the first to vote for mafia when they became town targets ... but my play has always clearly had town motivations and methodologies. When you contrast this with Milton, all of his suspicious targets aside from HeavOnEarth have been town or pretty much confirmed town, and he stopped contributing once both of the scum died. He only jumped in to justify his vote for the player with a strong case on them, or to defend himself. I've pointed out multiple posts that can easily be seen as scum slips. Both you and s0lstice have commented that if Milton was scum, both busses of his teammates wouldn't have been too outrageous. You commented earlier that me NK'ing austin wouldn't make any sense. Well, in my case I explained how a NK of austin would make sense for Milton. To add to that analysis, Milton was under absolutely zero pressure on the first day. It makes sense to aim for a possible blue rather than a strong townie, since he wasn't going to be under scrutiny any time soon. Please have another look at my case and at Milton's filter. Overall, it's much easier to justify Milton's actions, playstyles and slips as coming from scum motivations. This is also a big reason why I don't suspect sciberbia. His play would have to be way too crafty and risky if he was scum. Also keep in mind that unforgiven was already being heavily pushed by me and milton. If sciberbia were scum he could have easily just let me push the lynch and then use that as a reason to hang me up to dry the next day. Unforgiven was suspicious of the hard tunnelling but I don't see it as suspicious at all. Another point as I take a quick peek at sciberbia's filter. When we were lynching trackd00r, sciberbia was not convinced that he was scum. After he voted for trackd00r he said 'trackd00r IF YOU ARE A BLUE CLAIM NOW'. This is definitely not scum-motivated behaviour. | ||
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As we get closer to a 3 person LYLO situation, it's in the best interest of the mafia to have as few confirmed townies as possible. It's also in the interest of mafia to keep players who have had suspicions laid on them, so that those suspicions may rise again come the end of the game. Alan was confirmed town, but his analysis is definitely not as strong as sciberbia. Killing alan leaves sciberbia as the only really strong townie left in the game. If sciberbia had been NK'd, Alan would still have the benefit of being a confirmed townie to help guide town. But since sciberbia has had suspicions raised on him, it may be part of a mind game to instil doubt into town if it reaches the final stages of the game. For now I think the move is the obvious mafia move, and it shouldn't be looked into too deeply. This NK may become important if the game lasts into the next night, which I really really hope it doesn't. | ||
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There has been no sign of blue behaviour for the whole game since Alan's shot. If we had a cop, we most certainly would have one player drilling another one hard even if no one claimed. If we had a doctor, I feel they would have been able to save one of s0lstice or alan. If we had a jailkeeper, the NK would have been blocked by now, or we would have seen one player vehemently defending the more suspicious players. Golden's lurking is unfortunate. I can take a closer look at his filter later but I would really really hate to policy lynch at this stage of the game. If Golden really is mafia then it was a really great or really lucky play by mafia to have HeavOnEarth target him so early. I feel his irritation is sincere. Imagine this, he joins a mafia game for some Perhaps Golden's simple #vote on unforgiven is just because he is sick of this game and doesn't want to put any more time into it, but he at the very least feels obligated to still keep up the bare bare minimum. I feel that HeavOnEarth's super early game actions are enough to justify putting him as less scummy than Milton though. sciberbia is as town as someone can get I think. I've posted my reads already. And Crossfire has two big things going for him in my mind (aside from all the other points put forth by other players). The first is his case against sciberbia. No scum is going to attack the strongest townie in the game. They are just gonna shoot him at night. If a scum is gonna be aggressive at all he's gonna target the easy targets. Second, I really really have faith in my meta-game read on him. His helpful tone in the beginning is consistent with his helpful tone in the mafia QT in his past game. This is not something you fake as mafia, this is part of one's personality. He genuinely wants to help town and the helpful tone bubbles out. If he were mafia, that desire to help would not be so genuine. That leaves Miltonkram, who I analysed in detail. And golden, who is lurking, whose filter I will analyse when I get time. | ||
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##vote Miltonkram | ||
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With you alive, you lynch me for sure, then you die, then its him and crossfire vs golden. Milton and crossfire have both had strong town reads all game whereas golden has been lurking. I think this is just as valid as your scenario with crossfire dead. Actually if crossfire is dead, remember that I posted support for alan's case against golden, much stronger support than my small posts targetting milton. Perhaps he thought that there would be a scenario where I push a mislynch of golden with alan's support. You've been on the fence about me enough that you just might go for a golden lynch. Then alan dies. then its sciberbia vs suki vs milton. I think that's more of a 50/50 scenario than crossfire/golden/milton. -- also if I were scum you and s0lstice would have both been dead on the first 2 nights. | ||
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You guys seem to be online now, and I'd like to hear your thoughts on this analysis. Do you really think miltonkram would have expected to survive today after NK'ing alan? And even if he did, do you think he'd like his chances if it comes down to crossfire/golden/miltonkram? Basically yes and yes. Because there wasn't a strong case against him until I put one up after unforgiven's death. It's conceivable that he thought I would push for a golden lynch with alan, and if golden dies he's in bad shape. He needs me to die today, and you're the best bet for that.[/b] | ||
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Ok let me think on this again -_-; | ||
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suki pushes milton. Alan has town read of milton, on the fence about suki. Sciberbia leaning for suki scum. Suki gets lynched. Either alan or sciberbia left. If he kills alan then sciberbia has a golden town read and lynches milton with golden's support. If alan alive, he must know that both me and sciberbia were strongly attacking milton. I don't see a surefire golden lynch in this situation. Since alan is confirmed town milton is in bad shape cuz golden auto-votes for milton. Current scenario alan dies. leaving sciberbia crossfire suki golden milton sciberbia and milton go after suki, suki and crossfire go after milton. golden forced to choose. Possible that milton feels like his defense is strong enough or the case against suki is good enough for suki to die. If suki dies, then he kills sciberbia leaving him with golden, crossfire and milton. Feel that this is better scenario cuz at least crossfire isn't confirmed town. difference is, if milton survives today then he is in much better shape in the current scenario than in the scenario with alan or sciberbia alive. Perhaps he's gambling everything on being able to lynch me today. If he can do that then this scenario is better than stuck against sciberbia or alan at the end. Thus it makes sense for him to kill alan in the off chance that he survives today, than aiming to survive today and in a tough spot at the very end. So I guess the difference is alan won't choose golden, and he's confirmed town. Crossfire won't choose golden either but at least he's not confirmed town, there is a slim chance golden will attack crossfire. Sciberbia won't choose golden and he's practically confirmed town, no way golden will vote sciberbia. Milton is in a tough spot all around so he has to gamble. How does that sound? | ||
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If he shoots sciberbia tho, he most likely wont get me lynched today. Therefore he must shoot alan. | ||
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Your case against scum suki is that when my scumbuddies died, I started playing more townie because I had nothing to lose. My case against you is that when your scumbuddies died, you started playing more scummy because you were much closer to losing. @sciberbia your NK analysis makes sense in a way, but if you really think that crossfire is as confirmed town as alan was, then there's really no difference between NKing him or NKing alan last night. We've already shown that we analyse NK's to death, it's not a stretch to assume the last scum would kill alan to mess with our brains. Put it this way, if crossfire was NK'd, what would you, sciberbia, have taken from the NK? Would you really have pushed for a suki lynch or would you have followed the same line of reasoning now and seen it as a point against Milton? The NK has the base merit of getting rid of the 100% confirmed townie, which Milton has to do. . Also, thinking about a possible scum golden, I don't even want to analyse golden's play. I personally won't accept a scum win if golden flips red, because mafia is a game that relies on communication, however little. Golden hasn't simply lurked, he's left the game. Maybe that's me just getting frustrated though. . Milton's post surprised me. If he really were scum I'd expect even a tiny amount of pressure on me. If we all lynch golden and golden flips green, scum milton has sciberbia, crossfire and suki to choose from to NK. he has to kill one of crossfire and sciberbia because im the only one even slightly suspicious. But I really really don't think this is a good line of play from him. It doesn't make sense to soft defend me like this, when it would be just as sensible to soft pressure me. Guess I'll be taking yet another close look at everyone. | ||
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his slips: His soft defense of roflwaffles ("..the unvote seems less scummy") His soft support of rofls ("as far as alan133 is concerned you may have something") His nervousness pre-heaven lynch his playstyle: following rofl's death, he stopped contributing to town and simply followed the strongest case. his busses were easy to do. crossfire's recent post So he went from being pretty much convinced of suki's townieness and really liking her case to thinking she's scum in the second post, but then we should ignore her? Huh??? Finally, he says suki is scum if unforgiven is green. What convinced him so completely that suki is scum? He never mentioned it in his posts. He just says she is scum. Also I don't get how if someone is the most logical candidate for a lynch you should just ignore them. Thinking on why he hasn't taken a strong stance on me: Prior to today, it was beneficial for him to not take a strong stance on me or even read me as town. I have been the primary suspect for so long that if I got lynched, the other players would look bad for pushing my lynch and he gets to stay out of the spotlight. Perhaps due to the fact that he's never seen me as scummy, he can't help to push my lynch or he'd look really suspicious (due to inconsistency). This weird non-committal response on who is town is the best he can manage and still stay consistent with his previous views. I don't know how he plans to survive the final day, I really don't. But I still think he slipped several times and that you can find scum motivation for his play style and posts. Maybe the best he can come up with is to have me crossfire and himself at the end of the game and pull some WIFOM sneakiness against me. I don't know how to analyse the NK and make it fit Milton without resorting to WIFOM. But I don't think it discounts my case on him purely because there's possible WIFOM going on. | ||
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heavonearth attacking him from the get-go Evidence against: "Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game." - Makes statement, doesn't deliver http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15081294 - List post. Summarizes the day, not all that useful for town. - isn't suspicious of anyone at the time except MJ. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15081396 Avoid commenting on HeavOnEarth until sciberbia provokes him Crossfire "seems okay" reserves judgement on suki and alan The post afterwords says he can't believe he missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire and maybe he's totally wrong. Looks like a possible preparation to redirect attention against crossfire. " if i get bussed off by the mafia and you see i flip - So basically, if the mafia target him and he ends up getting lynched, HeavOnEarth is golden's prime target. The wording is really strange, to the point that I think it may be a slip. "bussing" is only done by mafia against their teammates. the scum/town mess up could have been a slip that he sees himself as scum. If he dies and flips scum, then the fact that HeavOnEarth is his prime target would relieve some pressure on HeavOnEarth. - Golden was not really under fire here. Its weird that he would say what amounts to 'if I get lynched today, my primary suspect is the current primary suspect of the day'. Golden's uncharacteristic frustration - Ok, I can see this as a tell on him. The frustration could be genuine but doesn't necessarily have to be because he is town. He could be frustrated and be scum as well. The fact that it's uncharacteristic is actually very interesting now that I'm taking an in depth look at golden. At this point I'm willing to put it as a point against him. in regards to HeavonEarth. In relation to my: a) knowing i'm town. b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case". c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments. i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away. #VOTE: HeavonEarth This quote has always given me difficulty when I try to interpret it. It's really confusing. Here is my interpretation. a) "I know I'm town" - self proclamation of role. Not useful b) "Him trying to bus me..." - Heavon has a weak case on golden c) Heavon didn't contribute or rebute any arguments. Heavon sees a bandwagon forming on golden and jumps on it? That doesn't make sense cuz heavon was the first person to attack golden. In any case, he votes HeavOn because Heavon hasn't been playing a strong game? But there's no actual scummy behaviour that golden lists as his reason to vote him. this is suspicious. "We'll obviously need to keep an eye on Alan113 just because everyone needs to be pressured several times during the course of the game, i just never found him to be as scummy as say HeavonEarth is looking atm." - Seems wishy-washy to say 'we obviously need to keep an eye on Alan113". "my opinion on vig role claiming is that its too late. they should have said it like 5 minutes before the day 2 post. how can we trust the person who claims now? anyone could claim it. if they said who they were shooting like 5seconds before daypost then it could be 100% confirmed they were town. so dont claim now." - Encouraging blues not to role claim, thereby denying information to town. If the vig does roleclaim seems like he may try to discredit the vig, based on this post. Not voting: Austinmcc Crossfire99 First day: HeavonEarth dies with the minimum 6 of 6 votes. Roflwaffle being one of them. If they could mafia would have saved him and forced a mislynch. So i think that 2 mafia WOULD NOT have voted for Heavonearth first day. It just doesnt pay to have him lynched. A NL would have benefited them so much more. So under that reasoning its my opinion that any of these people had a likely mafia flip from this point: Astinmcc RIP Crossfire S0lstice Trackdoor His list of likely mafia are all confirmed towns. He tries to reason that both mafia wouldn't have bussed their teammate. Under this logic it clears both him and roflwaffle from suspicion. Lol last time i ever stick my neck out for someone i think is town, what a retard alan. your argument that i contradict myself is invalid. I don't ever contradict myself, i purely state that no-one is ever confirmed town until they flip after saying that i think you are safe. read it again bro. Getting upset because someone tried to point out a contradiction he made. "I don't ever contradict myself" .. This actually seems too bold for a townie to say. A townie's game is ruled by uncertainty, to state that you never contradict yourself is like saying you'll never make a mistake. Very suspicious. my case on alan. he is a wanker. bahahahaha. that makes me smile every time. Sorry for being rude. but this game gets me super anxious. i did over react a bit. i'd be happy to be on the list if there was one generated. but i want trackd00r at the #1 spot on the list. that's my trade off. bold move from s0lstice and i am also wary of this being a scum-slip. how about: Trackd00r, Me, s0stice, 4th person (i dont mind because i think Trackd00r will flip red). i'm wary of unforgiven also, he's replaced MJ yet morphed into the same character. Points fingers at trackd00r, s0lstice and unforgiven. All of whom are dead. Following this he disappears from the thread. Interesting note. He said he'd reserve judgement on me until after Day 1, but he never commented on me. This is in a mafia's favour cuz it looked like I would be lynched anyways. ---------------------- Summary I had an epiphany. Milton said that after the rofl and heavon were killed, the last remaining mafia doesn't have to do anything special to appear townie. He just has to play like a townie. This means that, if we're looking at golden, the most important information is actually right at the beginning of the game. Extreme lurking like what golden is doing is beneficial to mafia as long as he doesn't get modkilled. Basically town just rips each other apart and he never has to say a word. Now, it pains me to say this, but if I compare D1/N1 between Miltonkram and Golden, practically every post golden makes has suspicious elements to it. The reasoning that HeavOnEarth targeted golden so early is flimsy - after all, who expects a strong case to be made that early on Day 1? Perhaps it was a clever distractionary move. It may have been that Golden's best move to do after rofl was killed was to just disappear completely. If he had kept up his style of posting post N1 he definitely would have been under a lot of scrutiny, but since he disappeared no one really paid attention to him. Help me out sciberbia and crossfire. I have now posted two big cases, one on Milton and one on Golden. Do you think my case on Milton is weak or that there are any particular things about Milton's posts that confirm he is town in your mind? Do you think my case on golden has merit? I have been single-mindedly going after Milton because I thought my points were conclusive, but now I'm not sure. The NK and Milton's soft defence of me can only be explained by WIFOM and desperate play if he's scum, but if golden is scum then he's in a good position (minus the possibility of being modkilled for lack of participation). I will have to mull over my thoughts a bit. | ||
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The post afterwords says he can't believe he missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire and maybe he's totally wrong. Looks like a possible preparation to redirect attention against crossfire. By the way this completely explains the first night kill. Alan's primary suspicion was crossfire. Crossfire had a decent amount of people suspicious of him. Golden is preparing to redirect D2 lynch to Crossfire. | ||
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What are everyone else's thoughts on his filter from previous games? sigh, golden seems like such a nice guy compared to this game =[ | ||
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One thing I will add about golden is that he might have killed austinmcc just because golden was really pissed off at him? I think I actually brought that up earlier too. Certainly fits 'frustrated angry golden'. | ||
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Giving golden's filter a once over, warning bells sound off when I read his posts about telling vig not to claim, him saying he never contradicts himself, and the general vibe once he starts getting angry. Falling off the radar perfectly fits a scum golden's agenda while not working for a town golden's one. His contributions in the previous threads too showed that he was a helpful townie, which is not what happened here. The NK of austin makes sense (esp. when you think it could be a rage kill) and the N3 NK makes sense. Although I made a big case against Milton and insta-voted him today, it's not like I voted him lightly. I made the case with the idea that I was pretty damn sure he was the last scum, and it took me a while to come off it. The reasons for that are posted above. I asked for sciberbia and crossfire's thoughts on the matter at the end of my case on golden, but I think I'm not going to wait for their response. ##unvote Miltokram ##vote O.golden_ne | ||
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Punctuation is good. | ||
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I really really really hope we've won here. If not, the only piece left will be who mafia NK's on the final night. The game will be reduced down to 3 people, and out of those 3 barring some insanely good NK examination it feels like it's going to be a shot in the dark. I mean, all four of us have pretty much cross-analysed each other to death. If there was something substantial we'd have found it... right? So I really really really hope we take the win at the end of today... cuz I can't think of any more points to discuss 'just in case' golden bleeds green. | ||
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So here we are. There has been one thing bothering me for the entire game. Why am I still alive? After so much pressure against me from sciberbia, how is it that I haven't kicked the bucket yet? Sciberbia has consistently put me as his top scum read. Yet he lets me slip through his fingers every time. First, he got distracted by trackd00r. Then, he tunnelled unforgiven. Finally, he somehow let us sway his impression of golden to make him vote for golden. Here is my prediction. Crossfire will die tonight. Sciberbia will push me, and Milton will be forced to agree with you, and I'll be lynched. Why will crossfire die tonight? Because sciberbia can't die, because he's the last scum. With this final mislynch he strikes a home run for mafia and takes home the gold. My Case on Sciberbia The posts where he votes for lynch targets Trackdoor:+ Show Spoiler + Since the NK of austinmcc, trackd00r has started to look a lot worse relative to suki. I already talked about how the mod's blue text suggests to me that the mafia hadn't submitted their NK. And I think this would be more likely due to trackd00r than suki. Also, suki has been very active and I just don't see why she would be putting in all this effort if she is scum. Maybe just to make us do 1 more mislynch? On the other hand, trackd00r has been pretty quiet since the day post. In summary I don't feel overly confident about either of suki's or trackd00r's cases individually. But they are definitely top 2 candidates on my list and I think both have a decent chance of being the last scum. I'm honestly not sure which I think is more likely the last mafia, but it seems suki has at least guilted us into lynching trackd00r first so... ##unvote ##Vote trackd00r Unforgiven:+ Show Spoiler + So, I am going to look past the circumstancial evidence, and conclude that I'm leaning town on suki ... First of all, s0Lstice is a pretty smart dude. And he was townie. And now he's dead. s0Lstice wasn't the perfect NK for mafia. He was a likely subject of protection from medic/jailkeeper. Additionally, he didn't look blue at all. Additionally, if unforgiven were hypothetically NOT mafia, having s0Lstice around for D3 would help to push another mislynch. So why did he die? The NK of s0Lstice makes perfect sense if Unforgiven is mafia. Do you really think unforgiven would be able to avoid getting lynched today if s0Lstice were still in the game? I doubt it. In conclusion, I think unforgiven is likely the last mafia. ##Vote unforgiven_ve Golden:+ Show Spoiler + Well it seems we are all agreement on lynching golden. His filter reads kinda townie to me (barring when he claimed scum). I'm not buying too much into the comparison with previous games. Golden seemed generally mad, whether town or mafia. His line about the vigilante was definitely bad advice, not sure if it's scum-motivated though. But town reads are relative at this point and I'd definitely rather lynch golden than miltonkram. Golden also fits with the NKs more than the other 2, especially for austinmcc and alan. Also, if you are going to consider D1 busses, suki or miltonkram on HeavOnEarth was more of a real (potential) bus than HeavOnEarth on golden. HeavOnEarth even kinda backed off of it of his own accord, which felt odd. Also, the whole thing about his "slip" where mafia is bussing him off and him flipping scum has to be counted against him. Anyway, I'm not gonna waste too much time trying to convince 3 people already voting golden to vote golden. I really hope he flips scum tomorrow, and I think there's a pretty decent chance. @Crossfire If golden flips town, we have to decide whether to lynch suki or miltonkram. I just feel that suki has to be more likely mafia than miltonkram. I'd assume your not convinced of this? We should definitely talk about this during night phase if golden flips town, and maybe even before then since today's lynch is already pretty much decided. I'll probably make a post tomorrow detailing why I think miltonkram is the more likely town. But for now, today's lynch is pretty much decided so I'm just going to sleep. 8 PM tomorrow can't come fast enough x_x ##Vote O.Golden_ne Vote Timings: He was 7th out of 12 to vote for HeavOnEarth He was 6th out of 9 to vote for trackd00r He was 1st out of 7 to vote for unforgiven. He was 4th out of 5 to vote for golden. Why this is relevant: His vote on HeavOnEarth was made after HeavOn's lynch was pretty much decided. Basically he didn't want to bus HeavOn until the last moment. His vote timing on HeavOnEarth is the most important out of the four, because after rofl dies, he can play a strong townie game. Therefore, I think it's very telling that he was so late to jump on HeavOnEarth. His stance on me: Day 1: + Show Spoiler + "Definitely" suspicious Day 2:+ Show Spoiler + I've gone through the case on suki, and I get the same feeling as s0Lstice; that suki is mafia and did a better job than last game of hiding it. - s0lstice's name bolded for my own emphasis. I haven't gone through the cases on trackd00r or golden yet, but I think its pretty likely suki is the last mafia, so ##Vote suki In summary -- suki and trackd00r are in my tier of top suspicion -- I find suki more suspicious based on posts -- I just realized that the whole NK business suggests trackd00r is mafia rather than suki -- I'll study track00r more over the next 24 hours and post more thoughts -- I think we will probably end up lynching both of them anyway (assuming we don't win today), so it's hardly likely to matter. Since the NK of austinmcc, trackd00r has started to look a lot worse relative to suki. - He analyses the NK and puts trackd00r as his top suspect. Day 3:+ Show Spoiler + IN SUMMARY -- I am for lynching suki, and then miltonkram if she flips town -- This isn't so much because miltonkram looks scummy, but that everyone else looks townie -- I am obsessed with figuring out why austinmcc died, and I have a possible explanation I just really don't see suki making this NK. I don't think the mafia coach would have suggested this NK to suki, and I highly doubt she would have proposed the idea on her own. Not only does it seem out of character to make such an odd choice of NK, but I think I am right in saying suki was being collectively viewed as one of the most suspicious people during N1. ... I'm leaning town on suki The thing I like most about this case is that the NK of austinmcc really fits here. ... ##Vote unforgiven_ve Day 4:+ Show Spoiler + would really like to lynch golden and then suki if golden filps town. But town reads are relative at this point and I'd definitely rather lynch golden than miltonkram. Golden also fits with the NKs more than the other 2, especially for austinmcc and alan. Also, if you are going to consider D1 busses, suki or miltonkram on HeavOnEarth was more of a real (potential) bus than HeavOnEarth on golden. HeavOnEarth even kinda backed off of it of his own accord, which felt odd. Also, the whole thing about his "slip" where mafia is bussing him off and him flipping scum has to be counted against him. Anyway, I'm not gonna waste too much time trying to convince 3 people already voting golden to vote golden. - Why golden? Why is golden a better lynch target than me? His only point is that the NK makes more sense, that the heavonearth bus wasnt good, that he slipped saying 'scum' instead of 'town'. But how is that a better case than his case on me? @Crossfire If golden flips town, we have to decide whether to lynch suki or miltonkram. I just feel that suki has to be more likely mafia than miltonkram. I'd assume your not convinced of this? I've already talked about this a bit. I really think crossfire was a more sensible kill for miltonkram. If golden is mafia, I think he made a mistake by killing alan. He should have killed crossfire. If the last mafia is suki/miltonkram, I have no doubt that they'd have some sort of plan for what went down today. Scum suki seems to have had a plan: kill alan --> get miltonkram lynched. Very straightforward. But miltonkram not so much. First of all, he doesn't actually post until quite a bit of time has passed. This allows 2 votes to get thrown on him without much resistance. Then, he accuses golden moreso than suki. I really don't think he'd have planned on lynching golden today. Leave sciberbia alive --> lynch golden doesn't seem like it would have been a solid plan. - He uses that specific day's NK to target me and discredit a scum Miltonkram case. He jumps from viewing me as the most suspicious on Day 1, Day 2, to townie on Day 3 (solely because of NK's), to most suspicious on Day 4 and now Day 5. The biggest question is, if I was really the most suspicious person to him, why wouldn't he hard press for me to get lynched? Why is his attention drawn away every single time? Because he planned it that way. Like he said, he really loves to analyse NK's. And his analysis of NK's has always pointed to a townie. He has used the NK's in trackd00r and unforgiven and golden's lynches to choose a less-suspicious looking candidate over me every time. The simple explanation is this: He planned the NK's for this very reason. Sciberbia is using the NK's to direct the town's target as he pleases, while keeping me alive for the very last day as the 'least townie of all the remaining townies'. Isn't it strange how we always seem to have a surefire mafia lynch, but every time we're disappointed? One of the biggest reasons we were so sure of unforgiven and golden was because the NK's didn't make sense if they weren't scum. Well, now we've reached the final stage of the game, and you know what? The lynches still don't make sense if I'm scum or if milton is scum. But sciberbia is willing to discard that to vote for 'the least townie of all the remaining townies'. This is the blindfold that has been pulled over our eyes this entire game. The idea that the NK's had meaning and pointed to the last mafia. The reality is that the real meaning of the NK's is to direct the town to take itself out one by one. The NK's all make sense when you view it from this perspective. The final stage of the game Here we are, the last remaining townies forced into a corner, with town reads on everybody, and the only option seemingly to go after the person who seems the least townie. This is not how the game should end. The game should end by us finding who is the wolf in sheep's clothing. Isn't it strange how sciberbia's impression of milton flip-flopped throughout the last few days? First, he thought milton didn't look scummy, but couldn't see why he couldn't be scum. Then, he was willing to lynch me followed by milton, who he figured was the most likely to be scum after me. Then, he thinks milton is probably town and targets unforgiven. Then he puts milton as his #1 town read above crossfire. When sciberbia stated that milton looked most likely to be scum after me, that was after trackd00r died (D2). Now that we've reached the endgame, he thinks that: If miltonkram is really scum, he played one hell of a D1. Honestly since D1, he hasn't acted quite as townie, but he seems to have been really busy... Think of this from a scum sciberbia perspective. In the beginning he's keeping his options open to lynch Milton (by pointing out his play could possibly scummy). In the end, he wants to keep Milton on his side by saying Milton is 100% town. He's also put Crossfire as 100% town. Both Milton and Crossfire have a town read on me, but when sciberbia lays out the scenario like this, they have no choice but to reluctantly lynch me. - Summary - Sciberbia was late to vote for HeavOnEarth. - Sciberbia has had me as his most scummy read for the whole game but somehow always gets distracted by the NK's. - Sciberbia has used NK's as reasons to attack or defend players, but now that he's at the end he simply gives up the analysis and decides to vote the least scummy townie. - Sciberbia has painted Miltonkram as possibly scummy and also as his strongest town read, both due to Milton's day 1 play. - The NK's have made sense for the current lynch target every day, and sciberbia is always happy to point it out. We miss, everyone feels horrible. Then suddenly someone else is most likely to have made those NK's. The scum in Mafia XV won because town wouldn't analyse the NK's. In this game, the scum has almost won because town put so much emphasis on the NK's, not realizing that they've been lead astray the whole time. - Also note that sciberbia doesn't give any reason for voting for golden over me, EXCEPT due to his analysis of the NK's. Sciberbia had put golden on a town read for the whole game, but somehow he complacently let golden get lynched despite feeling I was the most suspicious. - Regarding sciberbia's insta-bus on rofl. I bet he looked at rofl's play and knew that s0lstice and other good players would inevitably pick up on the slips. Rather than let that happen, he decided to take massive town cred for the insta-bus. Note that prior to his incriminating post on rofl, he hadn't even commented on rofl's play at all. I think it's also telling that rofl was relieved to have been shot by alan. It means if sciberbia put that plan forward to bus rofl, rofl would have happily accepted. ---- Alan's case on sciberbia: @sciberbia - Could it be he, the mastermind behind everything? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15162490 I am not trying to take credit, but I did posted roflwaffle as my prime suspect before I wrote an entire post in it, and it was before sciberbia's case on rolf. Perhaps Sciberbia noticed the slip made by rolfwaffle, and sees that he generated a lot of suspicious around him? s0Lstice did say he has a good idea who is the 2nd scum is. Sciberbia's supposedly bandwagony actions He jumped on suki's case in day 2 after s0Lstice, arguing that trackd00r or suki is probably scums because confirmed scums did not attack them. Please keep in mind sciberbia was also in this category. He goes by saying did not contribute much to the lynching of both scums. Before the rolf post, has he really committed to any scum hunting? Switching from Suki to Unforgiven_ve If sciberbia is the last mafia, he could be doing this to buy more time to get another mislynch, with a dead guy supporting him. ---- Interesting note. If you look at the Day 1 sequence of events, Sciberbia posts his last post 6 hours before the night ends. During those six hours is when the mods were asking for night actions to be turned in. He shows up just barely before the night ends. In other words, the reasoning that he used through the whole game about Night actions not being turned in until late during the night can also be applied to him, because he wasn't around during the time that the mods were asking for night actions. ---- Also remember that unforgiven called out sciberbia for uncharacteristic tunneling http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15161837 You are overeager to show your "scum hunting" skills, you are trying to take (and have succeded so far) town leadership, you remember me of the guys who won the last game i played, people fell for it, people didnt want to REALLY analyze the way he was playing. Theres 2 option for the last mafia to do: 1.- Always be under the radar and try to not gain any enemies and always look like you are in the same sintony as town and 2.- Be aggresive, take town leadership, point fingers to people who cant convince the town (for different reasons, posting, lurking, difficulty to express ideas) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15168782 + Show Spoiler + My last attempt will be this, going against my own belives and seeing you are blindly reading and using past games, i will show you what a mafia posted in NMM XV On May 31 2012 17:31 Xatalos wrote: blah - As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already. On May 31 2012 23:43 Xatalos wrote: blah Finally you posted something, but it's not what I was hoping for from a town Unforgiven_ve. More like what I expected from a Mafia Unforgiven_ve. This response convinced me. It's time to get the ball rolling. AHEM On June 20 2012 11:41 sciberbia wrote: Unforgiven's response didn't do anything for me. I'm not surprised, because my primary points of accusation are points that you cannot easily explain away. He has a lot of text, but doesn't say many things of substance. To summarize his post: On June 20 2012 14:48 sciberbia wrote: I was really unimpressed by Unforgiven's case on miltonkram. Here are my thoughts: bleh- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15165897 The agressiveness coming from sciberbia and his "stubbornness" SCREAMS desperate mafia, i bet you he will go for suki then, now that suki's case is fogotten it will be his card up his slevee, ---- If sciberbia truly were town, he'd have pressed my case and not used the NK's time and time again to discredit me being scum. After all, NK's can be done for WIFOM reasons, right? Yet somehow he puts full confidence in the NK analysis, and he has no reason not to because town is grasping at straws for the most plausible scum and the NK reasoning makes perfect sense. This is my case against sciberbia. Have a good long look and see if you believe me when I say that he's been the town puppetmaster this whole time. | ||
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If you view it that way, the day 1 and night 1 actions of all the players here are very important, because thats the only time that the 3rd scum had teammates to protect/deal with. sciberbia was one of the last to vote for heavon. And he didn't talk about rofl at ALL in the first day, prior to his big bus of rofl at the beginning of N1. | ||
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I think you're irritated because you're so close to pulling off a mafia win that you can't believe I'd switch cases from Milton to you on the very last day. Here's my question to Crossfire and Milton. Do you guys want me to defend myself? If you have any questions about my playstyle and actions I will be happy to answer them. However, I don't feel obligated to answer questions from sciberbia. Second, the entire game you both have read me as town, despite the insane amount of pressure and analysing that was done on me. When has sciberbia ever been analysed? When has he ever been pressured? This is the first time, and he's really irritated by it. Here is the way I see it. Scum sciberbia only has to clear one out of two of the last remaining town after this last night kill. Now that its reached the last day, he's suddenly insanely sure that Milton is town, and suddenly insanely sure that I'm the last mafia. He posted such a great defense of Milton that I have to concede that he's right. The funny thing is that he's left me with no other option but to analyse his play. I haven't looked at sciberbia's defense of my points but I will do so shortly over breakfast. | ||
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1. Keeping me around doesn't make much sense. You'd be better off just shooting me and having lurkers at the end of the game. 2. You didn't push mislynches, except on unforgiven. 3. scum sciberbia really doesn't benefit from hard defending milton. If it's a crapshoot between me and milton on the last day then that's the best scenario for sciberbia. On the other hand, if you hard defend milton I have no choice but to go after you. 4. lynching golden then me is a decent town plan if you think both of us have a chance to flip scum. My only issue with this plan is that I'm town. sciberbia, what am I to do then? You've singled me out as the only possible scum left, but I'm not. I've pushed hard cases on both you and milton and you've deflected both of them with ease. If you're scum, you're brilliant. If you're town, you're going to be really upset at yourself at the end of the game, because you've painted me in a corner that I can't get out of. I think I'll have to defend the accusations against me, and then try to dismantle your case against Milton. | ||
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On June 24 2012 12:28 sciberbia wrote: This is mostly for crossfire's benefit. First of all, please reread previous cases on suki If I've learned anything this game, it's that for whatever reason, I am better at scumhunting on D1 than post-D1. I think I actually had 2 out of 3 scum on D1 and the third on N1. Here is my first case on suki: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=8#151 Then s0Lstice accused suki during N1. I think s0Lstice actually had all three mafia by N1: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=15#283 --- I already defended myself earlier in the thread. --- My case on suki during D2: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=18#358 --- Mostly a rehash of stuff s0lstice pointed out, but if there are specific points you'd like clarification on, ask away. --- Crossfire also made a post on suki D2, but I don't think you need to be reminded of your own case. I'm not going to restate all the D1 stuff. I think that's been beaten to death. I'll just talk about some other stuff since D1. Really really bad reads OK now I grant that the language of suki's filter (especially since D1) reads pretty townie. But in forum games, some people are just good at making their language seem townie. Judging by actions is usually better than judging by langauge. Let's look at what she has actually done in regards to pushing lynches: + Show Spoiler + D1: pushes alan (a townie). defends HeavOnEarth(a mafia). Only votes HeavOnEarth after it likely doesn't matter D2: pushes trackd00r hard (a townie) D3: pushes unforgiven hard (a townie) D4: pushes golden (a townie) D5: probably pushes miltonkram (a probable townie) How many times can somebody hurt town and not be mafia? It's no wonder we've mislynched 3 times in a row. We've been letting a a top suspect (suki) lead our lynches. --- Suki: I'm sorry if I pushed the wrong people. I'm town and I get things wrong. In my defense, my attacks provoke defenses or pro-town behaviour. It's unfortunate that we had so many lurkers. From a scum point of view, what would be the point in pushing all these mislynches? Wouldn't I be better off following everyone else and sort of pushing this and that person? I've been the most active scum-hunting person in the thread, and I don't think that's inherently a bad way to play. --- Everyone who has been NK'd was suspicious of suki+ Show Spoiler + NK 1: austinmcc is suspicious of suki (maybe less so than golden, but still)] NK 2: s0Lstice is quite suspicious of suki (but she could also use it to push unforgiven) NK 3: alan is suspicious of suki. Why did alan not die earlier? He used to think suki was town. NK 4: probably sciberbia --- Coincidence. Also, the NK's don't make sense. If I wanted to make my life easier I'd have killed sciberbia earlier on - look at all the pressure he's putting on me. And he's been doing this since Day 1. Don't you think if I wanted to take town leadership, I'd have made life a LOT easier on myself and just gotten rid of him? Same with austin. Doesn't make sense. Alan also was flip-flopping his read on me, as opposed to sciberbia who was convinced. Why not sciberbia instead of alan? --- Everyone else's read on suki vs miltonkram+ Show Spoiler + Crossfire, I understand you're personal read of suki has been pretty town. Maybe that'll change as you read through filters. But, if there was ever a time to listen to other people's reads, now is probably it. Here are the last thoughts of all known or assumed townies on suki: austinmcc: suspicious of suki; no comment on milton s0Lstice: suki 2nd most suspicious; milton reads town trackd00r: no real comment on either unforgiven: suki town; miltonkram mafia alan: unsure on suki; not suspicious of miltonkram golden: suki suspicious; no comment on miltonkram sciberbia: suki mafia; miltonkram town Only unforgiven finds miltonkram more suspicious. And several people are significantly more suspicious of suki than of miltonkram. --- In mafia XV, Cattavik/Vivax was targetted for lynch because he was the most active poster. He made a bad read and town jumped on him for tunneling. Of course, he turned out green. Scum have two general options at their disposal. One, stay out of the spotlight as much as possible. Two, take town leadership and direct town by looking super townie. I've done neither. --- A few changes of tone+ Show Spoiler + The tone of suki's posts have changed a bit throughout the game. This is kinda indicative of a mafia because they try to be decietful. Here are some posts: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 12:44 suki wrote: Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already? ... BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this: ... Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open. ##vote trackd00r + Show Spoiler + On June 16 2012 05:50 suki wrote: Did not contradict myself. I do not think I blundered. I did not bounce around. I analysed the game and based on my judgement I focused my attention on the one person I believed was the most scum, and I didn't let off until I was convinced otherwise. The only evidence against me is from viewing my actions from a biased point of view. I've played a strong town game, and you're trying to spin it like I'm playing a strong mafia game by playing a strong town game. + Show Spoiler + On June 17 2012 11:03 suki wrote: Anyways, hum. I'm a little disappointed. Firstly, I'm disappointed that nobody's commented on my case against trackd00r. I put a lot of time into it and I don't think my points are easily dismissed. If find s0lstice's tunneling of me (and lack of comment on my defence) very strange. Maybe not suspicious, but strange. I feel that I've been upfront for this whole game. I've stated my suspicions boldly, presented my cases clearly. I've been wrong, about alan and about HeavOn (the so called 'scummy' defense of HeavOn) but that's not a scummy thing in itself. I'm being targeted because I haven't been scared of making mistakes, of calling people out, of changing my vote to who I think is the most scummy. I spend a lot of time on analysing the person I think is most suspicious rather than making shallow analysis on everyone who I think could be suspicious.. ... Neither s0lstice nor sciberbia (who both pretty much have the same case against me) have given my defence any credit or really even a response. No one except alan has really posted their in-depth thoughts on trackd00r. And trackd00r still hasn't delivered any useful posts in his own defence. I think I've gone through everything I need/want to say. + Show Spoiler + On June 17 2012 13:28 suki wrote: s0lstice, I think you did your job right and that if I really were scum, your pressure on me would be extremely effective. Don't feel bad for pushing me, that's what a good townie should do. Plus you can't be right ALL the time right? haha. I take it as a huge compliment that you think I'd be up to playing such a risky/advanced level of scum. I have the unique perspective of having a town read on everybody (more or less), including myself, leaving the only likely suspect to be trackd00r. I also feel very strongly about my case on him (hence my disappointment that nobody's really commented on it), and his 'OOPS' post just confirms my suspicions. @sciberbia I just really have had bad luck and bad reads. I have to say, it feels pretty awful to put so much effort into hunting scum, only to keep missing. I'd love to go over my thoughts behind my moves this game, but I'll do that post-game so I don't clog up the thread when we really need to focus on lynching scum. + Show Spoiler + On June 18 2012 12:56 suki wrote: My outlook on the game post-lynch: People will be taking a much closer look at me. It's to be expected, after the case that s0lstice and sciberbia brought up. I feel I pushed a good case on trackd00r and its frustrating that he wasn't able to defend himself adequately. I once again went through all the players in the game. I think I am just going to accept the hard truth that I just blow at analysis. ... In summary: I am town. That's my only defence at this point. If you believe me, then I hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. If you don't believe me, then I still hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. Going to bed soon but I'll keep up with the thread and post my thoughts. Just a little too burned out to do any sort of heavy analysis right now. + Show Spoiler + On June 18 2012 15:09 suki wrote: For those of you suspicious of me, one thing that you should note is that my play style had no fail safe in place when my reads eventually became wrong. ... I may not have been good at hunting scum, but I was good at digging out the non-committal behaviour of blues, I guess. + Show Spoiler + On June 19 2012 15:34 suki wrote: I realize that I am bouncing around now. I think it has to do with just losing all faith in my own judgement, in addition to no one's really listening to me anyways. I still want to post my reads, still want to try to contribute my thoughts when people bring up cases. I still want to believe I can help push for a victory, instead of crawling into a hole and disappearing for the rest of the game because no one will believe me. + Show Spoiler + On June 21 2012 10:08 suki wrote: This is my case against Miltonkram. Come daytime I will vote for him. I can't see sciberbia or crossfire as scum. I can't see HeavOnEarth pressuring a scum Golden the way he did. Milton is now the last and only suspect in my mind. hmm I was expecting to find some better quotes. Maybe this section isn't the best evidence. You can decide for yourself. --- No comment here. --- Clear plan for scum suki on D4+ Show Spoiler + I already talked about this a bit in my post on miltonkram. If suki is scum, I'd have expected her to have a plan for D4. I think her plan was to get miltonkram lynched by killing alan. And then kill sciberbia and WIFOM her way into getting golden lynched. AND if golden gets modkilled D4/D5, this works out brilliantly for her. If this is true, I'd have expected her to be very reluctant to back off miltonkram. And this holds true. She makes some pretty faulty analysis on the NK, insisting that it makes sense for miltonkram where it really doesn't. --- If I'm scum, I'd have a better plan than get into a 4-player scenario with 3 practically confirmed townies. You could probably see me defending unforgiven and golden, to keep them around for the final stages. Remember, if I'm scum I have the luxury of knowing who is innocent and defending them. I'm in the same corner as you sciberbia regarding NK's. You're trying to pin the NK's on me by saying they make sense, but they don't make sense for me to make them at all. --- I could post more, but I think these are the major points. Especially reread the cases on her D1/N1 actions. The alan bandwaggon, faulty trackd00r case, and defense of HeavOnEarth all look scummy. Nothing really looks scummy about miltonkram, so I really think suki is mafia. --- bolded parts are my defense. --- | ||
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On June 24 2012 18:15 sciberbia wrote: Instictively, suki's accusation of me makes me really sure about her being mafia. First of all, it is yet another "bad read" on her part. Second, I'm really surprised by the confidence in her accusation. It's not just "maybe we should consider the possibility that sciberbia is mafia". She goes from -60 to 60 on me after the mislynch of golden. Also, maybe I'm biased, but a few things in her case seem like exaggerations or just quite a stretch. But objectively, from the perspective of scum suki, here is the question: + Show Spoiler + what is more likely? (a) that miltonkram will vote sciberbia over suki (b) or that crossfire will vote miltonkram over suki Honestly (b) seems more likely to me . I was expecting scum suki to bank on crossfire not being convinced by me. And then she could either NK me and hope crossfire wouldn't change his mind, or NK crossfire and hope I WIFOM myself into voting miltonkram. I thought my defense of miltonkram was pretty good, but just yesterday crossfire was suspicious of miltonkram to the point of voting him, and still not suspicious of suki. If I had had to bet, I think I would've bet crossfire would reluctantly agree with me to lynch suki, but I'm really not sure. So does she really think miltonkram would vote me over her on the last day? Again I may be biased, but I don't think miltonkram would. --- This does make sense from a townie perspective, though, right? The onus is on me to convince milton that I'm not scum. And a scum sciberbia would definitely not take out me or milton. --- So why would scum suki decide to accuse me and NK crossfire rather than accuse miltonkram and randomize the NK between me/crossfire? I guess it's possible that she judged the likeliness of (a) and (b) differently than me. --- Why would I accuse sciberbia at all? If it's between you or miltonkram I think there's a much higher chance of convincing you that milton is scum than of convincing milton that you are scum. --- I just realized something else. She could NK miltonkram tomorrow if crossfire buys into her case on me. So she really only needs to convince EITHER miltonkram OR crossfire to vote me, and she can WIFOM her way to a win. --- You think I'd NK milton and keep crossfire and sciberbia on? How is that beneficial to me? If I was scum, do you really think I'd hedge my entire last-day plans on pinning you as scum? --- ACTUALLY, I just realized something else. If nobody buys her case on sciberbia, she can still NK me and (maybe) get crossfire to lynch miltonkram? Hmm but miltonkram surely wouldn't NK me in that situation so I don't think crossfire would buy it. Goddamn this is confusing. From the perspective of town suki, here is the question: + Show Spoiler + what is more likely: (a) sciberbia is mafia and suki can convince miltonkram/crossfire to vote him if crossfire/miltonkram dies (b) miltonkram is mafia and suki can convince crossfire/sciberbia to vote him if sciberbia/crossfire dies Well, considering that just yesterday she was deadset on lynching miltonkram, and was repeatedly saying how I am surely town, (b) seems more likely. Unless she really, really liked my (her accused scum) defense of miltonkram. (b) just seems more likely. The entire game she has been insisting I am town, but she "liked the idea of miltonkram being mafia". So I'd find this a surprising move from a townie suki as well. You made a really good defense of milton. What else am I going to do as town suki? If I was scum suki wouldn't it be easier to just keep pressing milton? It'd certainly be more consistent. Instead I don't even know what I'm doing anymore and don't know who could be mafia. Overall, I think that a townie suki pulling this move is less likely than a scum suki. Read her filter front to back. Does she really think I am mafia all of a sudden? I don't think so. --- here is my thought pattern. Sciberbia is really hard defending milton, discrediting my case against him, finding more townie things, so that I can't even pretend to think that he's scummy. Who is left to analyse? On the surface, a scum sciberbia gains a lot by hard defending miltonkram. But on the other hand, a scum sciberbia would benefit more by not defending miltonkram and letting me and milton duke it out. --- I think it's more likely that she is mafia and for whatever reason judged that crossfire would vote her in the end, so decided to explore other options. Now she can NK miltonkram or crossfire depending on how they respond to her case. I guess she could also still NK me, but I think crossfire would see that she has to be mafia in that case. --- You really expect me to be that crafty? Personally, and I think you know this too, I'd have simply planned who was alive on the final day much better and not gotten into this spot in the first place if I was scum. --- one more thing in favor of suki being mafia+ Show Spoiler + I meant to say this yesterday: at this point the last scum benefits greatly from lynching anybody besides themself. It is typical of the final scum to throw suspicion on anyone possible. This is not true of townies who only benefit from lynching the one scum. Who has been the most bloodthirsty D4/D5? Suki has been totally down with voting miltonkram, golden, and now me. Miltonkram wasn't too sure about suki/golden on D4, and thinks me and crossfire are town. This was another thing that made me think he is town. Scum doesn't benefit from throwing suspicion on the most townie person though. Or keeping super townie people alive til the end. Town however has no idea who is scum, and especially in this game, I'm just so confused. The only thing I know to do is to make a case on someone and judge the reactions. | ||
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On June 24 2012 05:13 sciberbia wrote: reasons why miltonkram looks really town Initial suspicions on roflwaffles + Show Spoiler + Miltonkram puts roflwaffles in his top 2 most suspicious about 21 hours into D1: + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 06:38 Miltonkram wrote: roflwaffles55 I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia: ... Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight. ... Obviously all these players can't be scum. I'll be looking through the thread more to see what I can do about narrowing down my list of suspicious players. Right now I'm leaning towards roflwaffles and MJ. I'm waiting to see if suki actually defends herself this time around. Not only does he show suspicions on roflwaffles, but his reasoning is actually quite good. roflwaffles did make himself look scared by backing down off his top suspect just because people disagreed with his case. roflowaffles then made 2 posts. One post in which he said miltonkram had "defeated his own arguments" and then this post further pressuring alan: + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 07:35 roflwaffles55 wrote: @alan Interesting that the first legitimate read that you come up with is a conspiracy between me and suki. Not only is it completely ridiculous, but you second guess it immediately, again leaving your options open so that you can't actually be held accountable for anything. Put yourself on the line, start contributing to the big picture and not just responding emotionally to me, and think logically about what you're going to post. The biggest thing that keeps irking me about your play is your seeming avoidance of actual decision making, the fact that even when criticizing my play you can't say "I think this is scummy". You go all the way around it and put the possible motivations from both angles. I would appreciate it if someone other then me looked at alan133's posts and formed their own independent opinion on him. Then, miltonkram backs off of roflwaffes, because miltonkram sees that roflwaffles is still pressuring alan. Now, this whole back-and-forth does seem like it could be an artificial conversation between two mafia. But, don't you think it would be a bit too obvious? Why does miltonkram back off of roflwaffles if this is a bussing thing? Nobody else showed any suspicions of roflwaffles, so it wasn't like roflwaffles was in any danger. I don't think it makes sense for a scum miltonkram would be backing off so quickly there. Surely he would realize it'd look suspicious if either him or roflwaffles ever died and flipped red. Anyway, I have to consider the whole thing with roflwaffles slight evidence in his favor. If Miltonkram really did bus HeavOnEarth, that means he kinda bussed both scumbuddies on D1. This seems a bit unnecessary and overly ambitious. Milton shows suspicion on rofls, but he then later backs rofls up by saying he appears less scummy for continuing his case on alan. He also tries to point towards alan in the same post that he defends rofl. You can say it would be a bit too obvious, but isn't that the simplest explanation? Milton might not be as crafty or self-aware as you would be as mafia. You can't discredit someone for being mafia just because their actions are too obviously mafia. His movements on the alan bandwaggon+ Show Spoiler + I think this is really good evidence for miltonkram being town, especially relative to suki. Here is a summary of how the alan bandwaggon rolled on D1+ Show Spoiler + -- (1) roflwaffles accuses alan hard and votes him -- suki is not convinced -- crossfire is not convinced -- (2) miltonkram puts alan in his top 2 -- trackd00r is not convinced -- (3) s0Lstice jumps on the bandwaggon -- (4) suki changes her mind and jumps on the bandwaggon -- sciberbia defends alan -- (3) miltonkram backs down from alan -- golden will reserve judgement -- austinmcc is not convinced -- suki continues to attack alan -- (2) s0Lstice backs off alan -- (1) suki backs off alan -- (0) alan shoots roflwaffles and becomes confirmed town Now miltonkram and roflwaffles being scumbuddies wouldn't make any sense here. roflwaffles brings up a case, two people aren't convinced, and then scumbuddy miltonkram jumps on the scum bandwaggon? What? Highly unlikely. I've read miltonkram's mafia QT from NMM XIV and he really tries not to tie himself to his scumbuddy. Then, after s0Lstice and suki jump on the bandwaggon, miltonkram jumps off, and posts a bit of defense for alan. How does a mafia miltonkram expect alan to get mislynched by behaving like that? --- Milton clearly puts mouldyjeb above alan in terms of suspicion. Also notice that immediately after he clears alan, he posts another list of suspects which includes Mouldyjeb and Crossfire, two cases which were gaining momentum at the time. --- I think it's more likely that miltonkram read my defense of alan and liked it. He also looked back through alan's filter, and decided to back off of him. suki's movements on this bandwaggon look far more suspicious. She changes her mind at the worst possible times. --- But I've always given strong arguments for my actions. Timing is something I can't help, but the townie motivation is clear I feel. --- His "bus" on HeavOnEarth+ Show Spoiler + This has to be counted in his favor. First, look at how he calls out HeavOnEarth twice for lurking: On June 14 2012 06:38 Miltonkram wrote: Golden + HeavOnEarth Get in the thread and post more. You guys can start by giving me your opinions on this post. On June 14 2012 08:05 Miltonkram wrote: @Crossfire, Golden, and HeavOnEarth What do you think of these two players and the cases against them? Are there any scummy players you think we're missing? We need more activity out of you guys. Of the three of you, only heaven's put decent pressure on anyone and even that is difficult to take seriously because he hasn't followed up on his reads at all. Calling out a scumbuddy for lurking is not a big deal. It's actually an easy way for scum to look like they're contributing when really they're not doing all that much. Then, he is third on the HeavOnEarth bandwaggon, after me and s0Lstice. Seeing as HeavOnEarth was s0Lstice's top target, and in my top 3, and s0Lstice and I had a lot of thread influence, it would have been quite risky for a scum miltonkram to add any more fuel to the fire. Does he really want to get the godfather lynched D1? --- He was third to post suspicions, but he didn't put in his vote. At that point in the thread it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to say Crossfire or MouldyJeb would be the lynch target for the day. --- Then miltonkram goes to sleep, wakes up, and reads the thread. s0Lstice is pushing a HeavOnEarth lynch. alan has also voted him. Then miltonkram sensibly puts his vote on HeavOnEarth. All of miltonkram's actions contributed to the HeavOnEarth lynch, so it's certainly good evidence in favor of him being townie. --- Calling out HeavOn for lurking did not contribute that much. Putting HeavOnEarth in his top 3 helped a bit. The timing on his vote was not the best. It's not hard to think that he was preparing for an eventual bus on HeavOnEarth and it just so happened that that day was Day 1. --- Now what kind of lame-ass bus would these posts be? Miltonkram's pre-lynch nervousness has been held against him. At first, I saw it that way too. But if you really think about it, I think it's good evidence in his favor. On June 15 2012 05:33 Miltonkram wrote: Ok it's time we start consolidating lynch candidates. Right now it looks like people are interested in lynching Heaven,Crossfire, and maybe Golden. Am I correct? I think those are our realistic lynch candidates at this point. I'd suggest everyone limit their votes to these three players unless you think I'm overlooking something huge. On June 15 2012 05:48 Miltonkram wrote: @ Heaven There are a lot of people jumping on your case really quickly. Not gonna lie, it's making me a little nervous. Please post some sort of defense or at the very least what kind of reads you have on players whenever you have the time. Look at the thread temperature at that point. s0Lstice has been pushing for a HeavOnEarth lynch. alan, suki, miltonkram, and roflwaffles have all voted HeavOnEarth. sciberbia will surely vote HeavOnEarth. Now if miltonkram is mafia, he sees 5 votes on HeavOnEarth. The bandwaggon against him includes both scum AND s0Lstice/sciberbia. In what fantasy world is HeavOnEarth not getting lynched? If miltonkram is scum, he clearly already resigned himself to the fact that HeavOnEarth is getting lynched, seeing as both he and roflwaffles voted HeavOnEarth. So if miltonkram knows HeavOnEarth is getting lynched, and knows HeavOnEarth will flip scum, what on earth is the point of these 2 posts that don't make him look that great if HeavonEarth flips scum? Wouldn't he do better to look more committed to the lynch? This is one of the posts that struck me as very solid when I first read your defense of Milton. It really doesn't make sense for him to do such a thing. But perhaps, perhaps he was hoping for a last minute-save. I can still see panicking-scum motivation to post this, but there could be townie motivation as well... the NK of austinmcc+ Show Spoiler + First of all, assuming golden flips VT (or scum), it's pretty obvious that we have no more blues >_<. Which means the last mafia is surely a goon. Having a roleblocker vs a mere vigilante & veteran is ridiculously overpowered. Additionally, nobody has been RB'd all game. So killing austinmcc without even roleblocking him isn't nearly as much of a boon to mafia. They can't stop him shooting roflwaffles if he is vigi. And shooting a lynchable veteran is a terrible idea. So I'm quite sure the NK of austinmcc was a suboptimal play. During N1, miltonkram would surely think he has some slim chance of winning the game as mafia, whereas suki would probably know she is dead. So I think suki is more likely to have made a suboptimal NK for the lulz or just some random reason not related to winning the game. I think that my NK analysis was decent for the austin NK. Milton had put crossfire as one of his top 3 scum reads, and austin was heavily attacking crossfire. In favor of suki though, she was active all night, whereas miltonkram was gone. Seeing as blues we had both submitted their night actions in a timely manner, the scrambling of the mods was likely done for mafia's benefit. More likely to be because of miltonkram than suki. Overall, I don't think this is great evidence for either one of them (suki/miltonkram) over the other. If miltonkram is really scum, he played one hell of a D1. Honestly since D1, he hasn't acted quite as townie, but he seems to have been really busy, and here are a couple things in his favor. His reasoning behind the breadcrumbing comment+ Show Spoiler + I see two possible reasons for his suggestion to get blues to breadcrumb at the end of N1: 1) He is town and thought this was a good idea 2) He is mafia and was desperately trying to find the (nonexistant >_<) cop When I asked him about his reasoning, he made this post" + Show Spoiler + On June 19 2012 03:53 Miltonkram wrote: @ sciberbia You had been commenting quite a bit on blue role play and I thought I needed to add my two cents. I was trying to figure out ways for us to get enough confirmed town players to make it impossible for scum to win. At first I was thinking about the possibility of confirming two townies if we had a jailkeeper. One would claim they were RB'd and the jailer would show us his/her breadcrumb. I thought of what could go wrong after I posted my advice. What if we had a scum RBer and they breadcrumbed their action and used this to become confirmed town? My mind kind of exploded then. I was also thinking of confirming town players through a cop, but that would require this game not to be a setup with double godfathers. I find that a distinct possibility (if we have a cop) because I could see prplhz making a setup that is basically a "fuck you" to town players who rely too much on blue roles. Does this make sense? Basically my thoughts were chasing themselves around in circles and I didn't think all the possibilities through when I posted my breadcrumbing comment. I'm hoping everyone ignored it. This strongly suggests to me that he is town. If a mafia miltonkram got called out on giving town bad advice, I'd expect some decent excuse. But here he shows some really in-depth thinking on the subject from a townie perspective. Reads quite townie to me. --- Disagree. It's easy to give an in depth explanation to make doubly sure that you look townie. Perhaps this is also a play that he would make as a townie too, so it was an easy defense. I read this whole breadcrumbing business as neutral. --- the NK of alan+ Show Spoiler + I've already talked about this a bit. I really think crossfire was a more sensible kill for miltonkram. If golden is mafia, I think he made a mistake by killing alan. He should have killed crossfire. If the last mafia is suki/miltonkram, I have no doubt that they'd have some sort of plan for what went down today. Scum suki seems to have had a plan: kill alan --> get miltonkram lynched. Very straightforward. But miltonkram not so much. First of all, he doesn't actually post until quite a bit of time has passed. This allows 2 votes to get thrown on him without much resistance. Then, he accuses golden moreso than suki. I really don't think he'd have planned on lynching golden today. Leave sciberbia alive --> lynch golden doesn't seem like it would have been a solid plan. --- Agree. Going after golden and soft-defending me really really doesn't make sense to me. This is one of the points that made me take a closer look at sciberbia. However, maybe, just maybe, he figured you'd be dead set on lynching me on the last day, and he was safe from being lynched, so his end game plan was sciberbia, suki, miltonkram. After all, you made the argument that how would milton expect to live through yesterday? And yet he did just that, and he made a big case on golden to do it. So perhaps his end game scenario really was sciberbia suki milton, and he was banking on you reading him as town the way you're doing now. --- OK that's about all I've got on miltonkram. The only thing I really don't like about him is that he has been kinda quiet since D1, and only given reads on lynch targets of the day. But he has been quite busy, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. He reads strongly town to me. I'm not so willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. His post-day 1 play can definitely have scum motivation, and at the very least has not been helpful to town. His day 1 play I don't find convincingly townie. You make some really good points but I really don't think he's as townie as you make him out to be. I'm going to be afk a couple hours, but I'll be here at the deadline tonight. Hopefully this whole post was a complete waste of time  sciberbia, It seems like you're dismissing all the scummy points on Milton as being 'too obvious' for a scum milton... Doesn't that seem weird? This is a newbie game too, how can you expect picture-perfect mafia play? How can you view me as scum, when you look at my play style for this entire game? When you look at the NK choices? All your evidence against me is circumstantial, but my play has clearly had town motivations. I've been wrong a million times, but at least I've had the motivation to put my neck out and find scum. Milton hasn't even lifted a finger. Your self-defense is very good. Your defense of Milton is very good. But one of those defenses is wrong. If you know that you're town, then have another look at Milton if you want to win this game. | ||
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On June 25 2012 02:02 Crossfire99 wrote: Suki, is the bolded part no longer valid in your town read on me since you think sciberbia is the last scum? If so, is the only reason you trust me because of meta? My case on sciberbia being the last scum doesn't affect my read on you. If you're the last scum, you still wouldn't target sciberbia. You'd probably target me or milton. | ||
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My reads, for clarity, are as follows: Crossfire - Town sciberbia - Most likely town due to his solid defense and certain end game decisions not making sense from a scum sciberbia point of view. Milton - Most likely scum. Due to his lack of action post day-1, due to his day 1 still being able to be scummy even tho it's got a townie feel overall. Due to sciberbia most likely being town. | ||
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suki ... Points against her: - She ignored my pressure against her D1 until I commented that she was ignoring it. - She made a bad case against trackd00r and backed down from it after being called out. Her defense of this play was also unsatisfactory. Out of all the scummy things you could think of to pin on me Milton, you chose that I ignored your pressure on me D1? I clearly answered it. Your case, now that I look back on it, seems especially try-hard: Suki has been painting track's two posts as directly contradictory even though they aren't. This could be an overzealous town play but I don't think it is. What possible motivation could there be for a strong attack on someone with a controversial opinion? Firstly, there's the chance that the town might bandwagon on it. This would be the best possible scenario for suki if she is scum. She leads a bandwagon D1 and she gets a mislynch. Secondly, she gains town cred for appearing aggressive even if she doesn't get the lynch. It seems like a win/win scenario for scum unless of course someone makes the analysis I'm making now. I didn't think your case against me was strong. I didn't like how you presented it. I don't like how you've brought up this trivial piece of information so late in the game, as if to say, look I contributed. There's definite scum motivation in bringing up tiny points that really have no relevance to the current discussion. I have responded to the trackd00r case issue and have nothing more to say on that matter. It's weird how you seem to be referencing my first case against trackd00r, the very first case of the game. Let me go to your points on sciberbia. The first two points on his vote timing on HeavOnEarth and timing of attack on rofls was already discussed. The last point, nailing sciberbia for discussing blues? That also seems extremely try-hard. Why do you only focus on Day 1 actions? You completely ignore all that has happened since then, but even if the last scum has no one to protect or cover for, the motivations are still all there. I find your analysis to be trite and incomplete, but the biggest issue I have with it is that through our analysis of only day 1 actions, you somehow come to the conclusion that sciberbia is more scummy than I am. Nevermind all the cross-analysis that has been done over the entire game. Regarding Crossfire's analysis of Milton's analysis I agree with everything Crossfire has said. It's strange how he attacked sciberbia instead of me. It's strange how his view of me has flipped so many times without much reason. It's strange how sciberbia is somehow more suspicious than I am despite sciberbia's constant tunneling of me and finding every little thing he can as scummy. Milton's case against golden can definitely be seen as relying on me to make the case against golden while he sits in the background. It also fits with his entire play style since the end of N1 - quiet, bandwagon-y, avoiding commentary on anyone except the current lynch target. My NK analysis and who I am going to vote for Sciberbia died. That was a pretty big shock to me. Especially after sciberbia's big post just before the day post, it seems that nothing I would say would keep him from lynching me on the final day. This is a huge blunder from Milton. Perhaps he thought there was a good chance that I would go after sciberbia. By agreeing with me on sciberbia, he buddies up with me. Then sciberbia dies, and the big question is, why would Miltonkram NK sciberbia, when Crossfire clearly will go for a Milton lynch on the final day? It made me take a really close look at Crossfire's filter, that's for sure. After all, if Crossfire is scum, then he can't kill himself. So his only option is to kill sciberbia. Crossfire's only option is to kill sciberbia. Milton's best option is to kill Crossfire. Therefore, by analysing this NK alone you could conclude that Crossfire is quite possibly the last scum. But I don't see Crossfire's play as scummy. + Show Spoiler + Crossfire's play has been very townie this game. Aside from my meta read on him, there are quite a few things that I like about his play. First, he attacked me early on, but quickly backed off when he realized his argument was flawed (knowing that alan was blue). Scum are more careful about attacking people for easily rebutted reasons, and even more careful about backing off quickly. Crossfire also targeted sciberbia who was strong townie, also a risky move for mafia. He was eager to arrange a meeting time to chat with sciberbia in-thread. Crossfire was the target of HeavOnEarth and Roflwaffles early game. They were quite set on getting him mislynched. Miltonkram, too, also applied some light pressure on crossfire. Austinmcc, the night 1 mafia kill, had strongly pushed for Crossfire's lynch. All signs point to mafia trying to kill Crossfire, and there's no reason to do that so early in the game if Crossfire is mafia. On top of that, there's precedence for this NK: Milton's analysis post. Milton's sudden and weakly motivated switch on sciberbia, followed by his NK of sciberbia, could be a last ditch effort to sow confusion. Switching his vote to sciberbia seems like a ploy to get me on his side, since from my tone on the case on sciberbia I had cleared Milton from suspicion. Now, if he can get me on his side, then killing sciberbia is a good way for me to stay on his side. After all, a NK of sciberbia doesn't benefit a scum miltonkram, but it benefits a scum crossfire. In addition, a NK of sciberbia greatly benefits a scum suki. So this NK works both ways. If either crossfire or me read too much into this NK and votes the other, then Milton just has to piggy-back on one of us and win the game. My read on Crossfire is strongly town. In addition, Milton just looks so scummy to me. Here is a short summary post of why I felt Milton was suspicious prior to switching to golden: + Show Spoiler + On June 23 2012 01:04 suki wrote: Eh I still think Milton looks suspicious. his slips: His soft defense of roflwaffles ("..the unvote seems less scummy") His soft support of rofls ("as far as alan133 is concerned you may have something") His nervousness pre-heaven lynch his playstyle: following rofl's death, he stopped contributing to town and simply followed the strongest case. his busses were easy to do. crossfire's recent post Thinking on why he hasn't taken a strong stance on me: Prior to today, it was beneficial for him to not take a strong stance on me or even read me as town. I have been the primary suspect for so long that if I got lynched, the other players would look bad for pushing my lynch and he gets to stay out of the spotlight. Perhaps due to the fact that he's never seen me as scummy, he can't help to push my lynch or he'd look really suspicious (due to inconsistency). This weird non-committal response on who is town is the best he can manage and still stay consistent with his previous views. I don't know how he plans to survive the final day, I really don't. But I still think he slipped several times and that you can find scum motivation for his play style and posts. Maybe the best he can come up with is to have me crossfire and himself at the end of the game and pull some WIFOM sneakiness against me. I don't know how to analyse the NK and make it fit Milton without resorting to WIFOM. But I don't think it discounts my case on him purely because there's possible WIFOM going on. Now on top of all that, we also have Milton's flip-flopping opinion of me, AND his extremely suspicious, poorly-reasoned case on sciberbia. Since there's only 3 people left in the game, this post is for Crossfire's benefit. If you are considering that I am scum because of the NK, do what I did with you. I had a really good town read on you, but looking at Milton's play he's just played so suspicious (especially in this final day) that I can't see his play as being pro-town or town-motivated. It just makes no sense from a town perspective. His vote timings on rofl and heavon were safe, he never initiated a case against someone else (minus golden, but he waited for me to jump on), and he never analysed anyone except someone with a strong case against them. The NK's too, make sense when you consider a scum Milton's motivations. In short, I'm convinced that Milton is the last scum. ##vote Miltonkram | ||
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In defense of her actions suki attempts to point out that part of her reasoning behind the trackd00r attack was "to get the ball rolling." This seems like a catch-all defense for scummy actions. I only used that reasoning once, and everyone generally seems to agree that it did get the ball rolling. You're putting too much weight on this first case. She then pressures alan133 for making controversial/confusing statements. I think this is a little more justified here because I believe alan's logic was a little flawed. But still, are you noticing a pattern? Suki pressured two players who looked weak from their first posts. Attacking weak/illogical/confusing players is not a town motivation. It's a scum motivation attempting to get a mislynch. Actually my case on alan was also focused around him not contributing to town, which definitely have scum motivations. In this, she criticizes HeavOn's play while also posting a soft defense of him. It looks like she was trying to slow down the bandwagon on him while still leaving herself open to bussing him. This is one of the points that sciberbia and other people suspicious of me like to point out. My defense was and is that I was focused on alan at the time, and a quick look over HeavOnEarth's filter didn't read especially scummy to me. Notice how she plants the idea of bias in other people's reads on her. It seems like a way to defend herself without actually addressing the points brought against her. She also dismisses her comments on appearing bold as WIFOM, another way of deflecting pressure off of her comments. To be fair, she had spent a good bit of time defending herself D1 so this point in and of itself is not particularly damning. Eh. Nothing to say here. I was genuinely confused why s0lstice was targetting me. I had previously addressed his case on me in this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15079153 I find it odd that suki has attacked me so harshly for being nervous when it's pretty obvious that she knows there is good reason for being nervous before a lynch. After all it seems like she was pretty nervous too. Double standard much? Haha. I quoted a post from Xatalos that was the exact type of 'nervous' post that you made - one that's made from scum motivations. Comparing your nervous post and my 'nervous' post is like comparing apples and oranges. Also your comment at the end... Well in like 4 hours you'll see that my post was made with genuine town perspective :o Neways. @Crossfire - Glad you support me. I think we got this in the bag. | ||
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On June 27 2012 05:05 Miltonkram wrote: Ok Crossfire. The case mostly deals with D1 stuff, since that's when I feel she made her major errors. Also, please keep in mind that your opinion towards me has been pretty constant for a while. Suki has already pointed out how a scum me could still be motivated to NK sciberbia. By that coin, suki's motivation in NK'ing sciberbia would have been to kill him, and then point out exactly what she pointed out. If I'm scum, I had the option of killing either you or sciberbia. Do you honestly think I had the confidence to convince you of my case, even with NK implications in my favor? Anyway, I'll be back shortly. See, now we get into the real WIFOM-y stuff. I mean, this is such a sub-optimal NK for milton, there's no way he would have made it. Therefore he must be town. Therefore even though you have a strong town read of suki, you should vote suki cuz clearly she's the only one who would have NK'd sciberbia. See, it goes both ways. That's why I said, don't make your final decision purely based on this last NK. Look at all the scummy and suspicious things Milton has done for the whole game, compared to my play, and judge for yourself. | ||
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His nervousness pre-lynch of HeavOn: @ Heaven There are a lot of people jumping on your case really quickly. Not gonna lie, it's making me a little nervous. Please post some sort of defense or at the very least what kind of reads you have on players whenever you have the time. This quote reminds me a LOT of a quote by Xatalos in Mafia XV: Suki, where are you when you need to defend yourself? The bandwagon on you is gathering steam, but you're nowhere to be seen. And I don't even think you're Mafia. Do a favor for everyone and show up right now. This was what Xatalos posted in the game when there was a bandwagon growing on me while I was away. Basically, it's a last-ditch effort for mafia to tell their teammate to post, JUST IN CASE they weren't checking the mafia QT but were checking the main thread. When Milton posted this, it stuck out to me as really odd. Now I think this is a pure scum slip, disguised to be a 'helpful townie' post. There is definite mafia motivation for this post, but not really any townie motivation. Now contrast this with his certainty of trackd00r and unforgiven being scum. There has been no hesitation in his reads, no questioning of who could possibly be mafia. The person on the chopping block has been his main read every time. | ||
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You're fighting a losing battle going after me cuz I'm green, green as grass. | ||
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Several slips during day 1. Safe bussing of his teammates Nervousness pre-lynch Bandwagoning and going with the flow of the thread Lack of consistency regarding reads If you analysed the NK's as well, you'll notice that the theme of the game was that scum were going for kills that didn't really make sense. Thus you can expect WIFOMy stuff at the end. I don't blame you for reading me as scum based on my Day 1 play. Had a bit of bad luck regarding my read on HeavOnEarth.. My case against alan too could be seen as a serious attempt to get a mislynch. And I guess my continuous cases against people who bled green lol. | ||
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Actually to be honest, at the end his little spiel where he said GG to me almost convinced me that he was town, and that Crossfire had just played a sick sick game as mafia. It was very sincere. | ||
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I really don't want to be a hindrance to town in my next game by sticking out like such a sore thumb... Or is that just a side-effect of this hyper-aggressive style that I played with this game? | ||
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On June 14 2012 02:02 Crossfire99 wrote: Be careful roflwaffle, votes are only easily removable if you are around to remove them. You never know what might happen. Also, votes early on in the day cycle that don't really mean much followed by complete disappearance during a controversial lynch can be scum tactic to avoid making mistakes in a heated debate that occurs last minute. The irony of this statement is hilarious :D You never know what might happen indeed. | ||
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This game was a big playstyle experiment for me. I went into the game with two thoughts - be bold, be aggressive - and I think at the very least I accomplished that. I really expected to come under fire due to this playstyle. What I did not expect was how I reacted - which was pretty much begging for town to continue analysing in the face of my impending lynch. I also didn't expect to completely whiff every read I made (minus the final one bahaha. But between Crossfire and Milton it was kind of obvious). I also did not expect to live until the end of the game. It's a pretty horrible feeling to know that you'll never be NK'd because you're so valuable to scum. Made me want to just give up so many times, so that everybody would have a chance to open their eyes. This definitely is not an optimal style for town play. I probably discouraged a LOT of people simply by building such huge cases against them. Alan responded well, trackd00r did not. Focusing on one person the way I did also means I diluted my cases with actions that weren't really scummy but simply fit in with the player possibly being scum.. And I ended up more or less leading all the mislynches in the game, while letting the final scum slip through my fingers. Also, I was too easily swayed by other people. Which sounds funny coming from me, I guess, but sciberbia had pegged Milton as second most suspicious and I let the cases of unforgiven AND golden just pass me by. I should have pushed Milton a lot harder, although I figured that if I ever got into a 3-way MYLO situation, I would know who the last scum was (after getting rid of unforgiven and golden), and be able to persuade the other town to see the light. Ultimately, I like this aggressive style, but I think I'll tone down my giant cases and keep a broader range of suspects at any given time. I like the idea of tunnelling, but it has so many drawbacks that I'll try to use that tactic sparingly. I think if I had been lynched in place of unforgiven or golden, sciberbia would have led the way to a town victory. I also had a look at my Day 1 while going over the final cases, and even though I hadn't meant to, I have to admit I did look pretty scummy. So s0lstice and sciberbia and Crossfire, if you're feeling bad, don't feel bad. I should have played Day 1 better. | ||
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Canada1159 Posts
Actually I'm kinda having second thoughts about LVI :O It's so huge. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
Also, if you do come back and decide to play more mafia, PM me! we may be able to play again if I'm still kicking around the mafia board :> | ||
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