EPTsciberbia drafted me XD
this is my 4th newb game. I thought the third would be my last, but I can't not play with my buddies!
Newbie Mini Mafia XVII
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s0Lstice
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sciberbia drafted me XD this is my 4th newb game. I thought the third would be my last, but I can't not play with my buddies! | ||
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s0Lstice
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On June 12 2012 09:07 ShiaoPi wrote: To scumteam, make sure solstice gets shot n1 again  that would be 3 games in a row :DNoooo! Shoo shiaopi xD | ||
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s0Lstice
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On June 12 2012 10:20 sciberbia wrote: To townteam, if solstice is not shot night 1, you should lynch him day 2 :D If I'm scum I'm totally going to shoot myself to psych you out ;D On June 12 2012 10:43 suki wrote: Oh yeah, for the record guys I am female and I would hereby like to be referred to as 'she' and 'her' . It was really weird last game having ppl call me 'he'. Not a big deal but still weird. And you expect us to believe this sudden femclaim? did you breadcrumb it? + Show Spoiler + jk jk xD | ||
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s0Lstice
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Golden, we'll just have to make sure you are dead before the weekend starts ;D | ||
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Sciberbia, I agree with just about everything you said. One thing I'd add is for the cop to be smart about declaring a successful scum check. Be mindful of what other roles are still in the game, and weigh the sudden danger you put yourself in vs. the value of declaring your check. Also, all blues should consider breadcrumbing. It could come in handy. I encourage everyone to check my other games to help you verify my towniness as the game moves forward. I screw up reads just as often as the next guy, but I am pretty active when it comes to case-building and defending people I believe to be town. | ||
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s0Lstice
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On June 13 2012 09:39 trackd00r wrote: Hello there! I'm so glad to start another game in TL. Let the scumhunting begin! Sciberbia: Well, in my case, I don't know anyone of you, so I don't any background of your play. Anyways, it' just a matter of time that me and the rest of the -5 who were not on NMMXV- can see your play style. I'll take a look to that game if I have the time to get and idea. I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. I have this nice feeling that we won't have any inactives/lurkers this game. I think this is the best scenario to push a successful lynch on D1, which even though it's hard, it's possible with everyone's focus and analysis. Don't be afraid to accuse anyone. If you take too much time to turn your scum-o-meter on, specially close to MYLO, it will be very hard to the rest to listen to your thoughts. You would take it upon yourself to stop a lynch if it is against your read? | ||
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s0Lstice
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On June 13 2012 09:56 roflwaffles55 wrote: Hey everyone! Glad I got towned up for my first game, I'm hoping to be able to contribute to the analysis and casebuilding, as well as make some good reads of my own! I'll read up on the previous game that the 6 of you were a part of to see if I can't make some good calls when it comes time to vote. Would you care to comment on the topics sciberbia brought up? | ||
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s0Lstice
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Miltonkram His vote was a joke. Maybe it was more clear to people in the game that the joke is from, but don't read too far into it. trackd00r Suki's post concerning trackd00r met my approval. It did nothing to prove his scummyness (as she later clarified), but it got the ball rolling. My read on trackd00r is still neutral. suki the sample size is extremely small, but her strawman case against trackd00r immediately goes against her scum meta. Day 1 doesn't truly begin until someone makes a 'meh' case against someone else with a few 'meh' points. Being that first person is a position of pseudo-leadership, and I consider it less likely that a scummer would be so bold. I don't put a ton of stock into this, but it is something to keep in mind. Mouldy Jeb You are my #1 suspicion at this point. You make a big deal out of Milton's vote. You profess a nebulous, baseless suspicion of roflwaffles55, then compliment him on his scumhunting. If you knew this was a contradiction why did you even type it? On refresh, I see Crossfire99 has shown up. Hello and welcome. I'm gonna put you under a magnifying glass now ;D | ||
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s0Lstice
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Roflwaffles55, same question. | ||
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On June 14 2012 02:02 Crossfire99 wrote: --snipped Be careful roflwaffle, votes are only easily removable if you are around to remove them. You never know what might happen. Also, votes early on in the day cycle that don't really mean much followed by complete disappearance during a controversial lynch can be scum tactic to avoid making mistakes in a heated debate that occurs last minute. What an odd thing to say. Your message boils down to: don't vote because you might not be around later, and when that happens you are going to look scummy. Discouraging voting for such an arbitrary reason looks kind of scummy. Also, this hall-monitor stuff is a comfortable way for scum to post and have it look like they are pro-town. | ||
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On June 13 2012 12:04 trackd00r wrote: s0lstice: Is it my idea or you already gained trust from Sciberbia? I'm off to bed now. Can't do much atm. Will be back in 8 hours ~ Sorry I missed this. You are asking if I trust sciberbia right now? Put simply: no. He hasn't posted enough yet. | ||
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HeavOnEarth He's pretty lurky. His hard stance is on Golden, where he builds a case on the poor guy's intro post. Look at the case: On June 13 2012 23:52 HeavOnEarth wrote: morning everyone  First off, id like to say im suspicious of everyone who tries to stay under the radar. I feel newer mafia players have a tendency to try and stay quiet. That said O.Golden_ne looks the most suspicious to me- Is there anything even remotely helpful in this post? Everyone knows NL is bad. he seems to be posting for the sake of it also, i checked his last game, (he was townie) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568 u can tell his tone is completely different, and he is generally more helpful. Think of it like this. Scum will be making cases against people on day 1...they have to. I looked at all the cases people have made, and this one stank especially bad. It's built entirely around a hello post. It has a very artificial feel to it. Also, he just posted this: Townies always feel the pressure of the ticking clock. Half of our time being gone doesn't seem to trouble him. He hasn't really bothered to comment on what's been going on in the thread outside of his own reads. He's been on Mouldy Jeb's case as well. Here's some more recent(!) material: On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote: was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia. Confused? Me too. I think this dude has a chance at flipping scum. alan133 There is already suspicion surrounding him, so I won't rehash. The main thing that raises my eyebrows is his defense against rofflwaffles. It was strong, and that was the problem. He was lightly gouged and hit back full force. This can be a sign of fear, or 'something to hide' as waffles put it. Mouldy Jeb There isn't really much of a case here. I went and looked at the Magic:The Gathering mafia, and his style is very similar. His style is dangerous, because it's near impossible to read. There is something to go on with his treatment of rofflwaffles, but that's it. Frankly, I hate the idea of him being around late game. I would vote for any of these three at this moment, but I'm not in love with any of these cases. We had it easy last game thanks to sciberbia. That said, you do the best with the circumstances you have, and lynch the scummiest player. We still have some time, so I hope we can improve our odds. Now for the errata. Austinmcc and Crossfire99 really need to post more. Just awful filters. Sciberbia, I have a mental block where I auto-green you in my mind. I fought it off and you really aren't posting much either. I hope you have something for us soon. | ||
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I am removing alan133 from my scum list. The main thing that had me suspicious was his strong-arm defense, but everything following that has been fine. I like that he is holding himself accountable for his style, and I want to see what he can do when not under pressure. austin and suki have commented on crossfire99, and I have to say I agree. I was planning on wrighting a post similar to what suki has done. The cogent point is that he has long bouts of inactivity when he is both scum and town. He should get the same level of suspicion that every lurker gets, but nothing special beyond that I feel. His filter right now is pretty garbagey, and hard to get a read on. I wouldn't be upset if we lynched him, but I think we can do better. Here is better: HeavOnEarth. Nothing has happened to change my initial opinion on him for the better. In fact, him buddying up to sciberbia in his latest post makes him look worse. Go read my case if you missed it. I'm not the only one to see him as suspicious, so I think there is plenty of traction here. ##vote HeavOnEarth | ||
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s0Lstice
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On June 15 2012 02:24 roflwaffles55 wrote: What exactly in alan133's play made you suddenly change your mind? He reworded his arguments and continued to attack the two people who are putting pressure on him. He still hasn't brought anything new to the table, except for try to expand on this conspiracy theory that he has running between me and suki. He improved his wording, and he says he changed his playstyle. However, all he did was become more aggressive towards me... and suki... His play maintains relatively the same. It's increasingly suspicious, I got called out for changing my play when the public opinion seemed to want me to, and then he does the same thing. If somebody considers outside information concerning their playstyle, recognizes its value, and makes changes, I consider it a good thing. Nobody should be tarred and feathered for changing their minds, provided they adequately explain their reasoning. This is the rule of thumb by which I examine situations like these. In this situation, alan is accused for being neutral/passive. He recognizes the criticism, acknowledges it publicy, and begins making a change. This was the sequence of events..there is no contradiction here. Whether you like his reads or not, he DID double down on them and he DID pursue them more aggressively. I don't like that we haven't seen much outside of OMGUS from him in regards to scumhunting. I don't like that he uses connection reasoning in his reads. These are the knocks against him as I see it. Does this make him scum? I say no. I've seen a number of examples where two people OMGUS eachother for most of the game and both end up being town. It's extremely common for town newbies to fall victim to the OMGUS bug. They know that they are town, and when they are accused they are only one bad logic step away from accusing their accuser. Bottom line is, the evidence against him currently doesn't paint him as firmly scummy. The main arguments (assuming I caught them all on my re-read) are neutrality, accusing his accusers, and his knee-jerk defense, correct? There is definite newb townie motivation for all of these. | ||
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On June 15 2012 02:47 austinmcc wrote: Right now I would prefer a vote on Crossfire or Golden, either works. Crossfire may tend to lurk, but he's been active for 2 hours this game and didn't contribute much, if anything, during those 2 hours. 1/2 golden's activity was promising some giant omnibus post, which he immediately began to apologize for because it didn't mention some of the more recent topics at all. He failed to make good on his promise to talk to us soon. I no longer wish to be his lover, don't know about the rest of you. Moreover:+ Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 09:43 O.Golden_ne wrote: No help rolling balls. No help squeezing lurkers. Not being aggressive at all. THESE are contradictions that stick out to me. Taking a pro-town position, doing so strongly, and then never following up on that, in fact, actively doing the things he said he was going to combat.Lets get the ball rolling and squeeze out the lurkers early so we can narrow things down later on. Looking forward to scumhunting, i'm happy with the deadline on this as its 10am for me in Aust, which means i'll be able to meet the deadlines for lynching in the mornings a little easier. I'll try my hardest this game to meet these deadlines and to contribute useful information rather than filler. Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game. I want to be able to establish some basic reads by the end of Day one, and if theres no-one who's appropriately scummy then we lynch a lurker. Golden Solstice, as to heavonearth, I don't prefer him to other targets. I agree that him calling out Golden wasn't much of a case, but Golden's first post IS weak. On your second point about time, I read that post as him being confused because your post made it sound like the deadline was really, really close. The third point on his contradictory comments does look odd, but I don't want to lynch him off of that. Look at it this way - MJ got lynched in MTG because he looked scummy D1, yet he was townie. So his posts definitely looking scummy IS consistent with when he was townie, as stupid as that sounds. Go have a look at newb mini XIV. It may give you some insight on Golden. I built a huge case on him for day 2 based on many of the points you are making this game. He flipped town. I'm not saying he couldn't be scum, but I'm seeing similarities here. | ||
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s0Lstice
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On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote: I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched. What? This is a really, really odd question. Your question assumes that he thinks of himself as incompetent, and actively tries to compensate for it. You clear him on this basis: a scum HeavOnEarth would look in the mirror and be like 'boy are you incompetent, don't go posting any cases now!', whereas a townie HeavOnEarth would be blissfully unaware of his incompetence and post as he sees fit. Furthermore, it's obvious scum are going to make an effort to accuse people, they have to appear town... ##FoS: rofflwaffles55 | ||
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People who are on Crossfire99 should read his newest post and adjust accordingly. I feel we have a darn good chance at hitting scum on day 1 with HeavOnEarth. | ||
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Austin and suki had both asked me questions iirc. I'll answer those next time I get a chance after the flip. | ||
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 ) last game with the scum hit on day 1. I'm badly wanting a repeat, and I got mad jitters. Also I thought the deadline was 7EDT so FML with this suspense. | ||
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This is not an excuse for him, just food for thought. He is going to have some work to do on night 1/day 2 to prove that he is pursuing the town win condition. | ||
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On June 15 2012 09:08 prplhz wrote: Heavonearth got lynched. This blue part scared the ever loving shit out of me | ||
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s0Lstice
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lol yes  Zen_Man too from XVI. In half of my games I have ended up on a medic lynch bandwagon D1.  <---- that's me | ||
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s0Lstice
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Scum #2: roflewaffles55 I have an idea of who #3 is too, stay tuned. | ||
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s0Lstice
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writing in bits and pieces at work, it's coming. I want to contest one of your suggestions quickly. Vigi, if you are out there, do NOT use your shot on roflwaffles55. Do one of the following: 1) Save your shot 2) Use it on a person you strongly think is scum #3 I feel that roflwaffles is going to be the day 2 lynch, there is no reason to use a bullet on him. He is a dead man walking. | ||
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s0Lstice
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Go on ahead and shoot roflewaffles my dear Vigi, if you are out there | ||
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s0Lstice
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Roflewaffles55 I won't rehash. If you are still not convinced go have a look at sciberbia's and alan's cases. This is a done deal in my mind. Suki She learned a lot from her first game as scum, and it showed this game. She looked pro-town enough for me to set her aside in favor of other endeavors. That said, there is plenty of incriminating evidence in her filter to be had. I'll organize this as best as I can. Let's look at how she has been going after the town win condition: Her case on trackd00r: + Show Spoiler + She divebombs the thread with this accusation as her first post, and then in short order backs down from it when it doesn't gain any traction. On June 14 2012 00:06 suki wrote: As has been pointed out, the contradiction isn't as severe as I initially thought it was. ##unvote trackd00r I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r, however my case was too weak and I feel that no useful information can be gleamed from people simply agreeing on its flimsiness. On June 14 2012 13:21 suki wrote: Quite simply you (and several other people after you) answered your question. The motivation is to get the ball rolling some way, any way. I feel I failed a bit in that regard as my attack was so full of holes that there hardly was any discussion developed from it, but it was made with good intentions. On June 14 2012 00:06 suki wrote: My case on trackd00r was/is a flop, and up until your vote on alan no one has really pointed out anything suspicious about any other player On June 14 2012 13:36 suki wrote: @sciberbia I think a lot of your argument stems from the impression that I was absolutely sure trackd00r was scum. I definitely worded my post that way on purpose, in spite of knowing my case wasn't solid. I was genuinely surprised that my case was as weak as it was. Basically one good post from you was strong enough to let everyone basically say 'yeah, I agree.' My comment that 'at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r' was because I thought even if my case was really weak, I could aggravate an interesting reply from trackd00r, but it didn't. Regarding the contradiction, and the comment that the contradiction isn't as severe as I thought it was. It's simply not taking the time to really think about the topic, after reading the rebuttals and being disappointed. There is no contradiction, it was just me being careless with my choice of words. Actually, the offhanded and subtly confident way he deflected my attack is a townie point for him in my book, so as it stands I don't suspect trackd00r at all. On June 14 2012 13:36 suki wrote: As for opening the game, I posted my policy post after the accusation because I wrote the accusation first. I did want to start the thread off boldly, I'll give you that. Look at how she dances around. She explains what was going through her head in 3 different ways: -I knew the case was weak when I posted it -I didn't know the case was weak until people told me after I posted it -I thought my case may have been weak, but I was just trying to get the discussion going. Also that last quote is scum-slip. Sciberbia pointed it out earlier. A townie has one agenda: finding scum. Scum have several agenda: stay alive, sow confusion, cause chaos. Admitting to adhering to an agenda of aggressiveness for it's own sake is very scummy. Suki has addressed this point, calling it WIFOM. Minus her comment on the matter, it would be WIFOM. It is her stated reason for wanting to appear aggressive that makes it a scum-slip instead. She has returned to trackd00r recently, and I'll address that later. Her case on alan133: + Show Spoiler + She starts out defending him from her scumbuddy, naturally. Frankly, what she says is right, so it's whatever. After alan defends himself, she goes on the attack. Her case was not a bad one. You could find in a lot of games a townie making a case using the same type of ammunition. That said, there is really only one strong point, and that is his knee-jerk defense. The rest is that he accuses his accusers, and his neutrality on day 1 I advise you to go look at it for yourself, and notice her vigor. She really goes after this read. As we start approaching lynch time, the people who joined her on being suspicious of alan133 begin changing their minds (me being one). HeavOnEarth was increasingly looking like the day 1 lynch. She drops her read on alan133 like it's hot, and commits to bussing her teammate. This is how I can tell she learned from her first scum game. She parrots the reasons for pardoning alan133 pretty effectively, and actually does some grunt work by adding to the case on her teammate before jumping aboard. The fact of it is though, even after all of that she looks like a shapeshifter. She's very aware of what is making her look town and adjusts accordingly. Trackd00r doesn't look scummy? Get off trackd00r. Alan133 is looking town? Get off alan. HeavOnEarth is looking scummy? Get on HeavOnEarth. Back to trackd00r: + Show Spoiler + Remember this first On June 14 2012 13:36 suki wrote: Actually, the offhanded and subtly confident way he deflected my attack is a townie point for him in my book, so as it stands I don't suspect trackd00r at all. Following the lynch of her 1st teammate, and the certain death of her 2nd teammate, she is back to full throttle on trackd00r, with no in between. There is a lot of effort in this new case. There's a few things I want to point out: On June 15 2012 14:01 suki wrote: He targets Crossfire. At this point Crossfire is under pressure by austin, roflwaffle, Milton, and sciberbia. Golden and I have been the ones backing crossfire up. Here is her 'backing Crossfire up.' On June 15 2012 00:06 suki wrote: Crossfire99: I spent a lot of time trying to figure out if he is scum or not. Looking into the filter of his two previous games, I found that his posting style is more or less the same. In game 1, he rolls blue and lurks quite hard. He states out of game reasons for lurking, but he plays more or less non-commital, pointing out suspicious behavior but not really heavily pressuring anyone. In game 2 as mafia, he starts out the game by doing two things. First, he posts a defense of a townie that had come under scrutiny. Second, he immediately starts pointing out errors in one particular person's posts. He actually tunnels this person for the entire Day 1 and only just fails to get him lynched. He survives for the whole game without really being under fire and mafia wins the game. In this game I see a lot of policy talk, a lot of guidance talk, and hardly any pressure at all. I find it quite different from his previously successful mafia play. In addition, his helpful tone is quite present in the mafia QT from the previous game, which makes me feel more inclined to think he's actually trying to help, despite his posts not really pressuring or helping town much. Basically, his meta has changed from his last scum game, and it's changed in a confusing way, and he isn't using the tactics that lead him to a win in the previous game. I'm waiting for more contributions from him before deciding whether I think he's scum or not. To me that looks like: I don't know. I'll go through her summarized points. On June 15 2012 14:01 suki wrote: I've gone through trackd00r's play in detail, now I'd like to summarize the points and explain why each point is suspicious. 1. Soft aggression vs Mouldy early on but later says he's not convinced. Slightly important point because Mafia want to avoid all targetting the same people. 2. Goes after Crossfire and Golden. Crossfire was a sort of easy bandwagon since so many players were after him. The Golden push is suspicious because so few people targeted him, one of whom was HeavOnEarth. 3. Does not comment on HeavOnEarth at all until the very very end. Definitely scum motivation for avoiding this. trackd00r was around back when s0lstice first started his push on HeavOnEarth. That was when trackd00r was pushing his cases against Crossfire and Golden. 4. His cases are all weak. He never points out scummy play despite singling out the three people who he would push for a lynch. His arguments are weak and consist of not contributing and not playing 'satisfactorily'. There's no townie motivation that late in the day to simply target people for unsatisfactory play, as opposed to finding scummy play. There is plenty of scum motivation to try to find something, anything, to attack, while not putting themselves fully on the radar. 5. He bandwagons at the last minute on HeavOnEarth. A pointless move. His analysis is flaky. He says, "I must admit that he looks suspicious at this stage of the game." 1- Being undecided on Mouldy was not weird, because his filter was empty. 2- Newb townie making the wrong reads. Hell I've pushed Golden myself when I was town, his play was similar to this game. Him being on Crossfire99 is a point, as that movement ran counter to a scum lynch. 3- Yup he came late to HeavOnEarth. Possibly scummy. Also possibly busy town. 4- Weak arguments can be scummy. They can also be newb town. Just ask our newcomer Unforgiven, who made some kick-ass reads but couldn't argue them effectively. 5- Again, being late could be scummy, but also busy townie. At that point, everything that there was to say on HeavOnEarth was said. He agreed, so he said so. The case feels contrived, trumped up. I invite you to read it and see if you agree. Concerning her teammates: + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 00:06 suki wrote: About HeavOnEarth: HeavOn's attack against Golden is weak, and his offhanded comment on MouldyJeb is simplistic. His points against Crossfire are thought out and straightforward. While he has not taken a strong stance against anyone, he's also not been wishy washy. He's also kind of aggravating, mocking and provoking MJ and golden while waiting for their responses. He hasn't contributed much, especially in the way of the major cases of the day, which is a big point against him. I feel HeavOn isn't as suspicious as people are making him out to be, and am waiting for his response on topics such as me, alan113 and crossfire before making a decision. This is a non-opinion opinion. She lists points for and against, dances around a hard stance. This is what scum looks like when they talk about their teammates with no public opinion to go off of. Remember that shapeshifter thing I was talking about? She goes from 0 to 60 on this guy, when the thread was telling her it was time to. Add another: she busses the shit out of her other teammate roflwaffles just after the paint dries on target painted on him. Summary: + Show Spoiler + She made a big blunder early game with her first case, contradicting herself and retreating from it as if it was leprous. Following that, she basically bounces around like a ping-pong ball, based on the current temperature of the thread. She is aggressive when she feels it's safe, and withdraws when it's not. All-in-all I feel she played a pretty good game, but the evidence is still bountiful. disclaimer: + Show Spoiler + I know others have been on Suki's case, in my haste I didn't have the time to cross-reference what I'm regurgitating and what's new. I'm gonna have a look now that I'm done typing this, and I hope everyone else re-reads other's cases on suki as well. Off-hand I know sciberbia, milton, and alan have posted things on her. | ||
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vigi should claim the shot no? would give us a confirmed townie | ||
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A fair number of people have accused her, and killing one of them wouldn't make her look any better. | ||
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If vigi claims... scum viewpoint: a person I already know is town is now confirmed town. if there weren't any other strong town reads, then the claimed vigi instantly becomes an attractive NK target. the thing is...we have a group of strong town reads, so it makes little difference to scum that there is one more. there are already more good targets than they have KP. town viewpoint: a person who I could not 100% confirm as town, is now confirmed town. I can eliminate the possibility that this person is scum. This leaves fewer candidates for potential scum, thus making it easier to find them. I really don't see how you think scum benefits from the vigi claim. The only real debate is when to claim. As we can win the game on day 2 with a correct lynch, I say now is fine. Sciberbia says later in the event that we misslynch today. The claim becomes more powerful with fewer people, though by that point the person may be reading strong town anyway. | ||
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s0Lstice
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Alright, check this out. I have a plan We are in pretty good shape with only 1 scum left. Let's assume for a moment that from here on out we only miss-lynch. How many would it take before we lose? Right now: 8 town, 1 scum After Day 2 lynch: 7 town, 1 scum After Night 2 kill: 6 town, 1 scum After Day 3 lynch: 5 town, 1 scum After Night 3 kill: 4 town, 1 scum After Day 4 lynch: 3 town, 1 scum After Night 4 kill: 2 town, 1 scum After Day 5 lynch: 1 town, 1 scum (scum victory) By my count, that gives us 3 miss-lynches to play with out of the 4 lynches remaining., assuming we don't get any medic protects. All we have to do is make a list to lynch down. Take the four most likely candidates and lynch them one-by-one. Here is my proposed list: 1. suki 2. O.Golden_ne 3. Unforgiven_ve 4. trackd00r In my estimation, there is only one other candidate that might go on this list, and that's Crossfire99. I don't put Crossfire99 on this list because he was the first to go after roflewaffles55 following HeavOnEarth's flip. I find it very unlikely that scum would do this. Does anybody see any chance that the remaining scum isn't on that list? We have enough lynches to kill them all, and therefore I think this plan pretty much guarantees victory for town. Everyone please tell me what you think. | ||
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s0Lstice
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I don't want this to devolve into an argument over the order. So its that order or abandon the plan. If you are on the list and are town, remember you win with town whether you are alive or dead. This should not factor into your decision. Ask yourself if you agree the last scum is in that group. If you think they are, support the plan. Post that you are in. If you don't think last scum is on that list, do not support the plan. We will expect an explanation why you don't think the last scum is on the list. | ||
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s0Lstice
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You did read it right? If I'm at the top, someone gets knocked off the bottom of the list, who according to our general consensus could be scum. I want to get inside your head and see how you could possibly suspect me at this point. I've been playing as green as a grass stain. I don't give a shit if I die, provided the new list is 1. me 2. suki 3. golden 4. unforgiven. If this is what it takes, then I'm all for it. I'd hope that you would at least have the courtesy to feel bad after I flip green though | ||
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s0Lstice
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The one condition on this plan is that the list is non-negotiable, barring one thing. Alan is confirmed town. I'm not really sure where his head is at right now, but his support matters. There are 3 choices here, in light of Alan's post. List 1: suki, golden, unforgiven, trackd00r List 2: me, suki, golden, unforgiven ...or scrap the plan I don't care if I die if it means the plan is followed. I think it's likely also that mods will speed up days if a majority asks for it. Whatever the DT decides to do (if there is one) can be factored in when it happens, either by removing a person from the list, or bumping someone up. All I'm looking for is what choice you want, and that goes for everyone. The sooner we choose the better. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
Your question presumes that the scum lies outside of the 4 on my list. Look at who we have left right now: s0Lstice Miltonkram sciberbia alan133 crossfire99 suki Golden Unforgiven trackd00r The top 4 on that list. What read do you have on them? Concerning crossfire99, I think it's extremely likely that he is town based on the fact that he was the first to go after roflewaffles55 after heavonearth flipped. Ask yourself if scum would do this. That leaves 4 players, for 4 lynches. The order really doesn't matter. I put suki at the top because I am pretty much convinced she is the last scum. I said the list was non-negotiable because I didn't want it to turn into a side show of who gets lynched when. @sciberbia, there will not be another vig claim. no scum in their right minds would claim that shot, and no townie who isn't a complete idiot would claim it if they didn't do it. if scum claim the shot it's an auto lose, because we'd lynch both people. I'm not suspicious of Unforgiven, because I'm fairly certain Suki is scum. I included him in the list because the filter size is small, and there is a chance (albiet small) that he is scum due to the lurkyness. Also, I play this game to win. I don't particularly care about being lazy. I proposed the plan because it will lead to a town win. That said, I really needed your support on it. I'm going to give it a little more time to hear from others, but if you continue to not be on board my suggestion will be to scrap the plan. From that point on, the only discussion on it should be if someone wants to use it in a case against me. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
I've answered your questions already, first of all. I said your support is important. I said sciberbia's support was important. I said if both of your stances do not change in the near future, I would want to scrap the plan. I said the list was fixed because if you open it up for discussion, guess what happens? We argue about the order. This is a good thing for scum. Right now we are arguing as well, and that's a bad thing. I knew it would be apparent pretty quickly if this plan was going to work or not. It's clear I'm not getting the support from the people I needed support from to make the plan work, so I say enough. The plan is over and gone, there is zero reason to talk about it after this post unless it is involved in a case against me. I have a few more comments on it, but I'll spoiler them ;D + Show Spoiler + I'm disappointed, simply put. Imagine how telling it would have been to see the reactions of the people on that list, if we had a majority supporting the idea. If I was scum in that position I'd be thinking about conceding. Continue with your regularly scheduled programming. Like sciberbia said, that list still has uses. Everyone should make a similar list and narrow down the choices. I'm still strongly of the opinion that suki is scum number 3. Please read my case + her defense, and have a look at her filter too of course. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
alan133, You are right about the crap I was telling you to do with your shot. I didn't think that through enough before posting. For what it's worth, this is only the second time I've been alive on day 2. I've had precious little experience with the ramifications of night actions. In two games I've helped lynch the medic xD So I get a 'needs improvement' on the blue stuff. The plan, however, was logically sound. After the game I hope you'll look back at it and see how it would have worked. Regarding suki, my case on her is not hard to find. It's in my filter. I've read her defense, and it didn't change my mind. I'm not going to continue to argue with her as I'm not going to convince her she is scum. My goal, logically, is to convince everybody else. I will work on a response to your defense of her. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
On June 15 2012 02:58 trackd00r wrote: Ok back to the game. At this stage of the day, the 3 most suspicious players that I have in my list are Suki and Crossfire99 andO.Golden_ne. I'd like to push a lynch to any of them. I'll post analysis in a moment. I'm pretty sure she has asked you this already also. I don't see a response in your filter. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
I'm going through the filters of the 4 folks on my list in depth (again). Suki's latest post reads pretty sincere, and I want to put it in context with the rest of her filter. I'll also re-read the active cases. I went a little heavy on the sauce tonight but I'll get it done! | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
you didn't think it was important to do an EBWOP about that? | ||
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s0Lstice
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s0Lstice
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s0Lstice
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I've decided I'm not waiting for your response, because I think you just scum-slipped hardcore. I like lynching liars, and I believe you are lying. For reason, see below: On June 17 2012 12:42 s0Lstice wrote: Actually while I'm reading, how about you tell me how you took the time to bold her name and still didn't realize your 'oops.' Suki, I think I screwed up bad in my read on you. You've taken the punches like a champ, kept your cool, and really gave this game your all. Like sciberbia I feel pretty awful about the situation, provided you are town. + Show Spoiler + If trackd00r flips town though you'll be hearing from me again ##Vote: trackd00r | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
Guilt does not factor in at all. What you say about suki's recent posts, where she has full knowledge that she is next should trackd00r flip town, is very telling. I see it as highly unlikely that scum suki would be behaving in this manner. | ||
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s0Lstice
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s0Lstice
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s0Lstice
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that's really frustrating | ||
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s0Lstice
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Also Xatalos wtf are you doing in here?! Hi btw ;D Nothing has changed with the people I'm reading town. Let's go back to the list: -suki -golden -unforgiven -crossfire99 The scum has to be in there. I cleared crossfire before, but I'm putting him back in for the moment so I'm not leaving any stone unturned. O.Golden.ne: Our first flipped scum spent all of day 1 trying to get him lynched. This would be an extremely ballsy bus move, and it's like pie in the sky unlikely. Must be town Unforgiven: Both our flipped scum tried to get Mouldy Jeb lynched on day 1. HeavOnEarth had him as a top scum read, and roflewaffles said 'hey if we can't get a majority let's totally lynch Mouldy Jeb!' So for the same reasons: must be town Crossfire99: I cleared him before because he was the first person to call out roflewaffles following HeavOnEarth's flip. I went back to NMM XIII and looked hard at his play again. I saw in there that he bussed his teammate Mufaa, and up until that point it was the most solid analysis/pressure put on the guy. I wouldn't consider it above a scum Crossfire to bus waffles in the way he did. Still, the simplest explanation here is that they are not teammates. Look at roflewaffles day 1 play. He saw his teammate was about to be lynched...what was he doing to try and stop it? Pushing Crossfire. This is similar to what heist did in NMM XV. Scum heist tunneled hard on a player to try to create a counter movement that would stop his teammate from being lynched. Heist's counter movement target of course was town, just like roflewaffles counter movement target must be town. Suki: this leaves you my dear. All the arrows point in your direction. You've fought valiantly, but I want to kill you know. I want to know how everyone feels about killing Suki on day 3. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
His joke vote on you would be a weird thing for scum to do. A needless risk for early game. I don't remember the exact chronology but I think he was pretty early to push heavonearth. I'll look through his filter in depth tomorrow, but I've been getting a pretty good town vibe from him. | ||
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s0Lstice
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The NK of austin wouldn't make much sense for a scum milton. Austin did not suspect him, and if Milton was scum he would have killed off the strongest town read he could find. | ||
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s0Lstice
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s0Lstice
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Please explain this. | ||
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s0Lstice
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Frankly though I think you are lying through your teeth | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
If Milton is scum, the second bus was easy as hell. By the time he chimed in, rofl's death was essentially a foregone conclusion. Then really, the only one he bussed was heavonearth. Bussing one of your teammates when an influential townie is calling for their death is a logical play. | ||
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s0Lstice
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s0Lstice
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Also Milton is going to be very surprised to see all this when he gets back from work. Hi Milton. | ||
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s0Lstice
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On June 18 2012 19:12 alan133 wrote: Why would a Godfather do that? I am betting my money that if he lead a successful lynch on Golden, he would have gain tremendous amount of trust, and he cops, if they exist, will get a false read by checking him. This is flawed reasoning. Why would the cop check him if he just gained a tremendous amount of trust? Bussing happens, even in newbie games. You are right about that. Remember though that it is situational. There is almost no motivation to bus a scum teammate in the way HeavOnEarth did. He did it in his first post(!) and didn't stop until he died. You are telling me that this bussing scenario is more likely than the very typical mafia play of picking a weak townie and trying to lead a mislynch on them? Remember Occam's Razor: the simplest explanation is most likely true. This does not mean you should flat out ignore other scenario's, but you go against this axiom at your peril. You say also that I did not analyze suki in my process of elimination post. I've already analyzed her. It was huge, I posted it on night 1. Since then she has gone after trackd00r. After trackd00r flips, look at this post. On June 18 2012 12:56 suki wrote: My outlook on the game post-lynch: People will be taking a much closer look at me. It's to be expected, after the case that s0lstice and sciberbia brought up. I feel I pushed a good case on trackd00r and its frustrating that he wasn't able to defend himself adequately. I once again went through all the players in the game. I think I am just going to accept the hard truth that I just blow at analysis. My reasoning for tunnelling someone aggressively is that if there really are other scummy players, they will be picked out by the other townies, meanwhile my analysis will either find scum, or force townies to act more townie, or force mistakes from scum. There are two people who stand out at the moment in my opinion: --- Mouldyjeb/unforgiven: + Show Spoiler + Both HeavOnEarth and roflwaffle were on Mouldyjeb's case since Day 1. Highly highly doubt that they would double bus their own teammate that early. Read: unforgiven very lurky. Possibly town, possibly scum, but can't analyse due to lack of posts. He looks more townie due to mafia double bus early Day 1. --- golden: despite saying this, he is hardly aggressive. Found Mouldyjeb suspicious. Found austinmcc suspicious but doesn't explain why. Austinmcc pressured golden for 'broken promises to contribute more'. Golden got really really offended at it. Could see an angry golden just shooting austinmcc N1 just to get back at him. Haha. forgets that heavOnEarth attacked him. Possibly just didn't give his teammate's post much thought. from crossfire's lynch summary post ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15090823 ), note that Golden was 6th to vote for heav0nEarth. Right in the middle of the pack is a good time for a mafia to jump on a bandwagon. Here is alan's case on golden ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15104147 , summary here : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15104403 ) It is pretty in depth and I suggest people read it. . Also note that golden gave no reason for jumping on trackd00r. He simply stated he said trackd00r was #1 on his scum list and voted him. ===== In summary: I am town. That's my only defence at this point. If you believe me, then I hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. If you don't believe me, then I still hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. Going to bed soon but I'll keep up with the thread and post my thoughts. Just a little too burned out to do any sort of heavy analysis right now. Read between the lines here. It says 'I am running out of places to hide.' She picks two people who 'stand out' to her, and then concludes that one of them is probably town. The other one is Golden, and when I pressed her on it using the exact same reasoning I just detailed to you, she backed down from that one too. Also, look at how she has been dealing with Miltonkram. If she was scum, going after him would be extremely risky for her, as it was evident that a lot of us had a pretty good town read on him. She didn't suspect him until after sciberbia and me started entertaining the idea of his death, and then she is all about the idea. So basically, the stuff that has happened after I posted my case on her does nothing to change my original opinion. Return to Occam's Razor: her being scum, all things considered, is the simplest explanation. I don't say this in lieu of any other reasoning, I say it as very powerful supplementary information. Now in regards to sciberbia, On June 18 2012 19:12 alan133 wrote: I don't know why suddenly everyone is suspecting each other, but this is what the mafia wants exactly. You are right. Suspecting sciberbia is exactly what the last scum wants you to do. I haven't read the case on him yet as I wanted to address you first, but all I'm going to say is that your primary source of information here is his filter, not Crossfire's case. I've been through the filter a couple of times, and because of this new case I will probably do so again. I'm guessing though that my opinion won't change, because sciberbia has been a scum hunting machine this game. His play has been extremely, extremely green. One thing I'll point out right now is that his suspicions of suki did not come out of nowhere. He was very clear on his suspicions of her on day 1. Have a look: On June 14 2012 13:02 sciberbia wrote: I've been studying the thread and I currently find these 3 most suspicious: suki, Crossfire99, and HeavOnEarth I've been staring at suki's filter for the last half hour, so I'll dedicate the rest of this post to my case on suki, and detail my thoughts on crossfire and heavonEarth in another post. Here are several reasons why I am suspicious of suki: Her original accusation of trackd00r+ Show Spoiler + suki's original accusation of trackd00r was quite strong. She says: -- This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious... -- BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says... -- try to take a firm stance, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. -- ##vote trackd00r She clearly thinks trackd00r has a good chance of being scum, and is interested in making everyone suspicious of him. Keep this in mind for later. Anyway, this original accusation drew my attention for a couple reasons. -- First of all, she twists his words, so her case isn't good -- As austinmcc said, even if trackd00r had contradicted himself, that's not a great scumtell. Mafia don't intentionally promote mafia policies. That's way too obvious. So I think suki is attacking him for a (percieved) confusing stance, not a scumtell. -- We lynched suki last game for being wishy/washy. I could definitely see a mafia suki making a bit of a stretch just to make an early "bold" case, and try to look townie. trackd00r would make a good target of such a case since he is new and his first couple posts were a bit confusing (difficult to read). The way that suki backs off trackd00r+ Show Spoiler + I wasn't too suspicious based on suki's initial accusation. But I really didn't like the way in which she backed down from it. + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 00:06 suki wrote: As has been pointed out, the contradiction isn't as severe as I initially thought it was. ##unvote trackd00r I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r, however my case was too weak and I feel that no useful information can be gleamed from people simply agreeing on its flimsiness. Before, she thought there was a severe contradiction. Now, she says that there is still a contradiction, but it isn't that severe. What? I was expecting her to say that she had misread/misunderstood. I still don't see any contradiction at all. Her post suggests that she doesn't want to completely back down from her accusation, but I don't see why she is still suspicious of trackd00r at all. @suki please clarify this To me, the most scummy line in her whole filter is "I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r". Reading her original response, she strongly accuses trackd00r and seems very interested in getting him lynched. This line about "at the very least" seems contradictory to that motivation. general attitude in her filter+ Show Spoiler + suki was super excited to play this game and was even more excited at the prospect of playing town. Look through her filter. Her posts so far aren't what I would expect from a town suki. After the initial accusation, everything she has said is bland and uninteresting. I don't think she has yet shared any real insight, or shown a lot of interest in helping town. It feels more like she is going through the motions. how she opens the game+ Show Spoiler + This is pretty circumstancial, so I don't expect many of you to buy into it, but I find the timing of her first two posts odd. First of all, starting the game about 4 hours late is slightly indicative of mafia. Secondly, why does she post a policy response 6 minutes after her first accusation post? She had clearly read the whole thread before posting either. This is all a bit odd to me, and I think it lends credence to the idea that she just wanted to start off boldly to avoid suspicion. The only thing in her filter that gives me a townie feel is her recent statement about finding golden's opening post suspicious, but waiting to comment on it. Overall, I would rate suki as definitely suspicious, based mostly on her accusation of trackd00r and the way she backed down from it. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
The first thing I did after responding to you was get to work on the case that crossfire wrote. I'm about a quarter of the way through it, and I already see a lot of problems. If it helps, this is the mindset I am keeping while reading through it: read it once with the idea fixed in your head that sciberbia is town and look for town motivations for all actions that crossfire brought up, then do the exact same thing with the idea fixed in your head that sciberbia is scum and look for scum motivation for all the actions brought up. Perhaps you did this already when you read it, but if you didn't, give it a shot. I'm gonna make a post on it before N2 is over. No votes have been placed yet. We have many hours yet before day 3 lynch, and plenty of work to do. Unforgiven_ve You have been subbed in for awhile now and done almost nothing, and its hurting the town. I know you said you were busy, but if you are town and have any interest in us winning this game, you need to share what your current scumreads are. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
-Sciberbia posts a list of suspicious people, but only talks about one of them, in order to gauge reactions on the rest. + Show Spoiler + How's this for motivation? It takes time to write shit. He felt the strongest about suki (this is clear in his post) and wanted to get his thoughts out there as fast as possible to be digested. He even states a reason, the case on suki was the freshest in his mind. -Soft defense of HeavOnEarth at the end of his accusation. + Show Spoiler + HeavOnEarth was the third most suspicious suspect on his list. Why is it strange that he provides reasons that counter some of the scummy things he saw? If he is concluding a person is 'somewhat suspicious,' there are naturally things he is going to see as possibly town, but sees them as overridden by the scummy points. Also, just because I used certain posts to paint HeavOnEarth as scummy doesn't mean that someone else can interpret them in a different way. My words are not law. -Posting a list of people's convictions leading up to the lynch. + Show Spoiler + Have a look: On May 21 2012 16:45 sciberbia wrote: all times EST indifferent - sciberbia, golden, solstice not heard from - mufaa, shiaopi hegeo - can stay on until 6pm Milton - starts work at 7pm mordan - starts work at 8pm release - can't get on until 7pm Looks to me like 7:30pm EST makes the most sense. Any earlier is nice for hegeo, milton, and mordan, but it would really screw over release. Any later is slightly beneficial to release, but detrimental to hegeo, milton, and mordan. If the deadline is indeed 7:30, we should just be aware that a couple people might be gone for the last hour or so, and not to wait until the last minute for a roleclaim or anything. Thoughts on 7:30pm EST? Especially mufaa and shiaopi? On May 24 2012 07:09 sciberbia wrote: Hour and a half to the deadline. We really need to decide on a target. I've been accumulating a list of everyone's opinion on whether to lynch shiaopi, milton, or hegeo, and it looks something like this: sciberbia: milton, hegeo, then shiaopi golden: milton, hegeo, then shiaopi shiaopi: milton, then hegeo, not shiaopi mordanis: hegeo, then milton/shiaopi release: hegeo, then milton, then shiaopi solstice: shioapi, hegeo, then milton milton: shioapi hegeo: shioapi, then milton mufaa: ............ Feel free to correct me if I've misrepresented your views. I propose that shioapi is out of the running. He is primarily accused by the two other lynch candidates, as well as solstice. He is viewed as least scummy of the three by me, golden, mordanis, and release On the other hand, milton has 3 votes, and release said he would also be quite interested in voting for him. He is about the same as shiaopi in mordanis's eyes. Hegeo is the primary target of release and mordanis, and is also considered moderately suspicious by all the people we aren't considering lynching. Can we agree to focus on milton vs hegeo? He makes a very similar list in the pre-game, trying to get everyone on board with a deadline time. Then, in-game, he makes exactly the same type of list you are calling scummy. Guess what color sciberbia was in this game? It rhymes with spleen. It doesn't matter if you think it's helpful or not, it's clear that he thinks it's helpful. -Sciberbia is active in the night, and posts his case on roflewaffles after Crossfire and Alan post that they think he is suspicious. + Show Spoiler + It's true being active at night is something scum do, because they have no fear of being killed. Sciberbia has been playing this game to win, he will be active when he has time because he wants to win. There is definite town motivation for this. I've been posting a lot on N2, am I scummy? For the second part of that, last I checked, town wants to kill scum. Very easy town motivation here. The bussing scenario here is far less likely. -Sciberbia goes from being ambivalent about a second vigi claim to adamant about a second vigi claim. + Show Spoiler + Lots of bad logic here. Crossfire seems to have overall a high opinion of sciberbia as a player. Now, what kind of idiot scum would flat out say, with blue color, hey you blues out there claim! It doesn't fit with the rest of your case, because it's heavy handed. Your other points suggest he is being careful, calculating. You say he is against vigilante claiming. This is false, plain and simple. He did care, the discussion was about when. Put another way, he wanted the vigi to claim, but he thought it would be better if the claim came later. He had to think about the ramifications of there being two vigilantes, but he flat out says that is is unlikely. Why is it strange then that he calls for a counter claim if one exists? He wants to win, and a counter claim would have basically wrapped the game up. There is one point here that I agree with, and that is it was pretty weird for him, having realized that there may be a second vigilante, asks for that second guy to claim. Everyone can make of this what they will, but I think this was just a townie slip of logic. He kind of mind-fucked himself with the idea that there were two vigi's, and goofed. -Sciberbia asks me what I think of Miltonkram on N2. + Show Spoiler + There is possible scum motivation here, I grant that. I see town motivation too. Look at the situation at that time. We were struggling with a situation, forcing ourselves to consider that the impossible was possible. A thought struck him that we have been auto-clearing Miltonkram because his filter looks pretty green. But, if we are forcing ourselves to consider the impossible, Milton is fair game. He had this passing thought and posted it. Is this really that unlikely for a town-person to do? I say no. -Sciberbia, seeing my opinion, posts a case on Miltonkram. + Show Spoiler + Same explanation. We, at that time, were imagining what was going to happen in the game provided suki flipped town, which, at the time, seemed pretty impossible. Why is it weird that he is making a full effort at considering all possibilities? Same town motivation. -Sciberbia tries to dissect night actions. + Show Spoiler + Obvious town motivation. Go look at the post game analysis of NMM XVII. Many of the experienced players posting there say it is a mistake to not devote some time to analyzing night actions. It can devolve into WIFOM if you aren't careful, but that doesn't mean the analysis isn't useful. Suki also makes an excellent point about NMM XVI. If the remaining players had analyzed night actions more, they would have seen a big red arrow pointing at Xatalos, who was the last scum. Analyzing night actions is another tool in the townie tool box. Easy town motivation here. So to sum up, I see a single point that could look scummy, and that request for the second vigi to claim if there is one. One, single, point. Do not make the mistake of falling prey to confirmation bias. If you look at sciberbia's filter like I have, first with the idea that he is town, and next with the idea that he is scum, I guarantee you will think the first way is more logical. Ok, done with that. Now, I had a HUGE epiphany while writing that, and I'm certain it will lead us to a D3 win. Here's a preview: it doesn't involve lynching Suki D3, it involves killing Unforgiven_ve | ||
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s0Lstice
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Zelblade, can you tell Xatalos to edit that last post out? | ||
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s0Lstice
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I'll start with the point that Xatalos gave away Look at how reluctant the mods are to kill this player. No vote on D1 from Mouldy Jeb, he gets replaced. No vote on D2 from Unforgiven, he gets a warning. Is the last scum going to get mod-killed, resulting in a town win? Doubtful.Now let's look at Mouldy Jeb I'll start with another game he was in, where he was town. Here are some select posts. On May 21 2012 18:37 Mouldy Jeb wrote: hi- now my presence is known. saying "get rid of a veteran" indicates that you are worried that an experienced Mafia player will either weasel you out~ if your mafia or kill you if you are not so due to this rash decision to get rid of competition so on that note #vote:Nova_Terra On May 22 2012 22:22 Mouldy Jeb wrote: early game i suspected nova because of rash decision making from his part and myself assuming the worst, matchew voting for me which wasn't given a viable explanation so i would be inclined to vote for matchew due to his random train of thought against others ## vote:mattchew He explains his reads here, then takes a firm stance with a vote. Look at this game: On June 13 2012 22:47 Mouldy Jeb wrote: you are suppose to be playing seriously if not then that would create the cloud of assumption that you are indeed scum random votes are related to scummy tactics so I already have my suspicions of you. also my suspicions of roflewaffles are slight but i have no further evidence that is incriminating him On June 14 2012 00:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote: nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence On June 14 2012 00:29 Mouldy Jeb wrote: my personal opinion so far, would be to keep tabs on miltontkram this is due to the fact that he randomly voted ( yes yes, its all fun and games until a misslynch) I also do agree with suki on the "sketchy" behaviour of rofl but contradicting myself I feel you have raised some good points of scummy behaviour in your long post and crossfire seems to be lurking. His reasoning is pretty weak in both games, but it's far weaker in this game. The baseless suspicion of roflewaffles is very, very telling. Looks like newb scum trying to appear like he is pressuring his teammate. The most important thing, however, is no votes. It doesn't match, and it's scummy. Now, move to Unforgiven. He has been useless this game, except for a weak bus on roflwaffles, which gives him just a smidge of town credit. Maybe enough to keep him off the radar while he lurks with purpose. On June 16 2012 03:09 Unforgiven_ve wrote: In case i die, my 2 "best" reads (so far) are austincc and roflwaffles55. They were trying to push a lynch on Crossfire, seeing as this wasnt working they decided a Bus from roflwaffles55 and austin will kept his target "just in case". We still have 6 more hours till night ends right? Look at how he dances around austin: On June 16 2012 06:04 Unforgiven_ve wrote: ebwop: i want to point out im not making a conclusive acussation on austin, i just want you guys to analize a little how he is playing. This is just after he said his two main suspects were roflewaffles and austin. Now let's look at other games. NMM XV comes to mind. His filter is big, so I'll just highlight a few points. On June 02 2012 05:27 Unforgiven_ve wrote: im not a fan of this, but im gonna do it... TOWN please, VOTE FOR SUKI, im pretty sure he is mafia!! I bet he is confortably sitting waiting for Ange777 to get lynched or a No Lynch at best. Xatalos, if you arent mafia, please do this, a vigi can check me at night (if mafia dont kill me before) On June 05 2012 06:45 Unforgiven_ve wrote: It's too late for me to try and convince you guys to change your votes, i think vivax will flip town, his last post voting for himself doesnt help tho. Guys, because i think im right about heist, maybe i will die this night, the only thing in my favor is being a terrible poster (they killed s0Lstice for being good=, maybe they want me to be alive to get more people confused. You are understimating the proof against heist, i still think there's a ver high change that heist and xatalos are mafia, i see they are playing a pretty standard "active" mafia, dodging attacks and siding whit the mayority (not before making his "preference" obvious to the town) triying to gaing some town credit. Right now i would kill heist, the way he started to play the game and how he acted around the suki lynch are my main motivation. This posts and screams mafia for me. On June 06 2012 07:51 Unforgiven_ve wrote: ##Vote heist, im not gonna spend more time explaining something so obvious Again, just like MJ, the tone does not match. He is sure-footed and comes down hard on his reads. Here, not so much. I feel like this post is getting pretty big, so I won't pull quotes from NMM XIII, but go have a look. He was scum in that game, and he lurked with purpose. He bussed teammates as well. It looks A LOT like what's happening in this game. That leads me to my next point. This game, right now, feels a lot like XIII. The scum lurked, and town tore itself to pieces, destroying the people with content (who were all town) one by one. It's been a seemingly insurmountable task to find the last scum in this game, and we've already started the process of slowly cannibalizing ourselves. It seems insurmountable because we (I) cleared the last scum based on bussing arguments. A wise man (thanks Marv!) told me in coaching PM's that bussing is only illogical for scum if it causes a scumbuddy to be lynched. When HeavOnEarth and roflewaffles bussed MJ, was there seriously any chance that he was getting lynched that day? No. Emphatically no. Them bussing him was not illogical, it was smart. Look at the confusion it caused. I bet Greymist has been in that scum QT insisting that they not be afraid to call each other out, and he was right of course. I'll even add NK analysis for the cherry on top. Why are our strong town reads still alive? Because we have been completely, utterly, wrong since Day 2 began. Unforgiven was free to blue snipe as he pleased (austin could look blue, no? he is cautious like a blue), because the big talkers were all wrong. Also, remember how the night action was so late? It's because Unforgiven has been busy, like he said. It all makes sense! FINALLY!!!!! Please let's kill Unforgiven_ve on day 3 and be done with this game. I want to feel the sweet taste of victory. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
[QUOTE]On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote: was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia. Tell me this doesn't sound like newb scum talking about a teammate. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
still <3 you xD | ||
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s0Lstice
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s0Lstice
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s0Lstice
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gg guys | ||
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s0Lstice
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s0Lstice
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s0Lstice
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s0Lstice
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If I have the time I hope to write some analysis on the game. Of the four I've played so far, it's been my favorite | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
And to Suki, who I mercilessly pressured, and read wrong/right/wrong/right/wrong in that order, I owe you a beer or something. I want to thank you for not getting discouraged and playing your ass off. You made the right read when it mattered, and did the #1a most important thing to do as town: establishing your townieness...I was just too thick-headed to notice. You contributed a lot to our positive town atmosphere. + Show Spoiler + here's your beer! ![[image loading]](http://www.ohbeautifulbeer.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/FatTire12ozBottle.jpg) | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
On June 27 2012 13:40 Unforgiven_ve wrote: I will say this whitout any bad feeling or troll attempt. Really, pleasae dont take it in a bad way It wasnt a deserved victory, it wasnt a “amazing play“ by milton, town deserve to win. We lost not because of mafia play, but because of overeagger townies triying to be superdetectives And not seeing the simplest clues, by this time some of you should have a better understanding of The game and how some people play it. You are so full of “indepth“ analisys bullshit that you want to belive for catching a mafia you need a columbus, That players should make extra long and colorful post talking about hypotethic and useless scenarios, and spend a gazillion hours playing to belive them. You talk A LOT about wifom situations and you dont really have any idea how to do it, the rules says you have to play to win, sometimes that means you should consider another situations besides the ones you see. Keep it simple, you arent playing whit masters of disguise in here. Dont try to lead if you dont know how to do it, people will blindly follow You if you have the littlest iniciative, so please, use this carefully, in game and real life. All in all, GG, it really was a fun game whit a unexpected end. I pretty much disagree with everything you said here good sir. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
Sciberbia being the main reason for the town's loss is ridiculous. He nailed 2 out of the 3 scum in the first cycle. | ||
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