EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XVII - Page 4
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suki
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##vote Miltonkram | ||
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With you alive, you lynch me for sure, then you die, then its him and crossfire vs golden. Milton and crossfire have both had strong town reads all game whereas golden has been lurking. I think this is just as valid as your scenario with crossfire dead. Actually if crossfire is dead, remember that I posted support for alan's case against golden, much stronger support than my small posts targetting milton. Perhaps he thought that there would be a scenario where I push a mislynch of golden with alan's support. You've been on the fence about me enough that you just might go for a golden lynch. Then alan dies. then its sciberbia vs suki vs milton. I think that's more of a 50/50 scenario than crossfire/golden/milton. -- also if I were scum you and s0lstice would have both been dead on the first 2 nights. | ||
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You guys seem to be online now, and I'd like to hear your thoughts on this analysis. Do you really think miltonkram would have expected to survive today after NK'ing alan? And even if he did, do you think he'd like his chances if it comes down to crossfire/golden/miltonkram? Basically yes and yes. Because there wasn't a strong case against him until I put one up after unforgiven's death. It's conceivable that he thought I would push for a golden lynch with alan, and if golden dies he's in bad shape. He needs me to die today, and you're the best bet for that.[/b] | ||
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Ok let me think on this again -_-; | ||
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suki pushes milton. Alan has town read of milton, on the fence about suki. Sciberbia leaning for suki scum. Suki gets lynched. Either alan or sciberbia left. If he kills alan then sciberbia has a golden town read and lynches milton with golden's support. If alan alive, he must know that both me and sciberbia were strongly attacking milton. I don't see a surefire golden lynch in this situation. Since alan is confirmed town milton is in bad shape cuz golden auto-votes for milton. Current scenario alan dies. leaving sciberbia crossfire suki golden milton sciberbia and milton go after suki, suki and crossfire go after milton. golden forced to choose. Possible that milton feels like his defense is strong enough or the case against suki is good enough for suki to die. If suki dies, then he kills sciberbia leaving him with golden, crossfire and milton. Feel that this is better scenario cuz at least crossfire isn't confirmed town. difference is, if milton survives today then he is in much better shape in the current scenario than in the scenario with alan or sciberbia alive. Perhaps he's gambling everything on being able to lynch me today. If he can do that then this scenario is better than stuck against sciberbia or alan at the end. Thus it makes sense for him to kill alan in the off chance that he survives today, than aiming to survive today and in a tough spot at the very end. So I guess the difference is alan won't choose golden, and he's confirmed town. Crossfire won't choose golden either but at least he's not confirmed town, there is a slim chance golden will attack crossfire. Sciberbia won't choose golden and he's practically confirmed town, no way golden will vote sciberbia. Milton is in a tough spot all around so he has to gamble. How does that sound? | ||
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If he shoots sciberbia tho, he most likely wont get me lynched today. Therefore he must shoot alan. | ||
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Your case against scum suki is that when my scumbuddies died, I started playing more townie because I had nothing to lose. My case against you is that when your scumbuddies died, you started playing more scummy because you were much closer to losing. @sciberbia your NK analysis makes sense in a way, but if you really think that crossfire is as confirmed town as alan was, then there's really no difference between NKing him or NKing alan last night. We've already shown that we analyse NK's to death, it's not a stretch to assume the last scum would kill alan to mess with our brains. Put it this way, if crossfire was NK'd, what would you, sciberbia, have taken from the NK? Would you really have pushed for a suki lynch or would you have followed the same line of reasoning now and seen it as a point against Milton? The NK has the base merit of getting rid of the 100% confirmed townie, which Milton has to do. . Also, thinking about a possible scum golden, I don't even want to analyse golden's play. I personally won't accept a scum win if golden flips red, because mafia is a game that relies on communication, however little. Golden hasn't simply lurked, he's left the game. Maybe that's me just getting frustrated though. . Milton's post surprised me. If he really were scum I'd expect even a tiny amount of pressure on me. If we all lynch golden and golden flips green, scum milton has sciberbia, crossfire and suki to choose from to NK. he has to kill one of crossfire and sciberbia because im the only one even slightly suspicious. But I really really don't think this is a good line of play from him. It doesn't make sense to soft defend me like this, when it would be just as sensible to soft pressure me. Guess I'll be taking yet another close look at everyone. | ||
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his slips: His soft defense of roflwaffles ("..the unvote seems less scummy") His soft support of rofls ("as far as alan133 is concerned you may have something") His nervousness pre-heaven lynch his playstyle: following rofl's death, he stopped contributing to town and simply followed the strongest case. his busses were easy to do. crossfire's recent post So he went from being pretty much convinced of suki's townieness and really liking her case to thinking she's scum in the second post, but then we should ignore her? Huh??? Finally, he says suki is scum if unforgiven is green. What convinced him so completely that suki is scum? He never mentioned it in his posts. He just says she is scum. Also I don't get how if someone is the most logical candidate for a lynch you should just ignore them. Thinking on why he hasn't taken a strong stance on me: Prior to today, it was beneficial for him to not take a strong stance on me or even read me as town. I have been the primary suspect for so long that if I got lynched, the other players would look bad for pushing my lynch and he gets to stay out of the spotlight. Perhaps due to the fact that he's never seen me as scummy, he can't help to push my lynch or he'd look really suspicious (due to inconsistency). This weird non-committal response on who is town is the best he can manage and still stay consistent with his previous views. I don't know how he plans to survive the final day, I really don't. But I still think he slipped several times and that you can find scum motivation for his play style and posts. Maybe the best he can come up with is to have me crossfire and himself at the end of the game and pull some WIFOM sneakiness against me. I don't know how to analyse the NK and make it fit Milton without resorting to WIFOM. But I don't think it discounts my case on him purely because there's possible WIFOM going on. | ||
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heavonearth attacking him from the get-go Evidence against: "Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game." - Makes statement, doesn't deliver http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15081294 - List post. Summarizes the day, not all that useful for town. - isn't suspicious of anyone at the time except MJ. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15081396 Avoid commenting on HeavOnEarth until sciberbia provokes him Crossfire "seems okay" reserves judgement on suki and alan The post afterwords says he can't believe he missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire and maybe he's totally wrong. Looks like a possible preparation to redirect attention against crossfire. " if i get bussed off by the mafia and you see i flip - So basically, if the mafia target him and he ends up getting lynched, HeavOnEarth is golden's prime target. The wording is really strange, to the point that I think it may be a slip. "bussing" is only done by mafia against their teammates. the scum/town mess up could have been a slip that he sees himself as scum. If he dies and flips scum, then the fact that HeavOnEarth is his prime target would relieve some pressure on HeavOnEarth. - Golden was not really under fire here. Its weird that he would say what amounts to 'if I get lynched today, my primary suspect is the current primary suspect of the day'. Golden's uncharacteristic frustration - Ok, I can see this as a tell on him. The frustration could be genuine but doesn't necessarily have to be because he is town. He could be frustrated and be scum as well. The fact that it's uncharacteristic is actually very interesting now that I'm taking an in depth look at golden. At this point I'm willing to put it as a point against him. in regards to HeavonEarth. In relation to my: a) knowing i'm town. b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case". c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments. i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away. #VOTE: HeavonEarth This quote has always given me difficulty when I try to interpret it. It's really confusing. Here is my interpretation. a) "I know I'm town" - self proclamation of role. Not useful b) "Him trying to bus me..." - Heavon has a weak case on golden c) Heavon didn't contribute or rebute any arguments. Heavon sees a bandwagon forming on golden and jumps on it? That doesn't make sense cuz heavon was the first person to attack golden. In any case, he votes HeavOn because Heavon hasn't been playing a strong game? But there's no actual scummy behaviour that golden lists as his reason to vote him. this is suspicious. "We'll obviously need to keep an eye on Alan113 just because everyone needs to be pressured several times during the course of the game, i just never found him to be as scummy as say HeavonEarth is looking atm." - Seems wishy-washy to say 'we obviously need to keep an eye on Alan113". "my opinion on vig role claiming is that its too late. they should have said it like 5 minutes before the day 2 post. how can we trust the person who claims now? anyone could claim it. if they said who they were shooting like 5seconds before daypost then it could be 100% confirmed they were town. so dont claim now." - Encouraging blues not to role claim, thereby denying information to town. If the vig does roleclaim seems like he may try to discredit the vig, based on this post. Not voting: Austinmcc Crossfire99 First day: HeavonEarth dies with the minimum 6 of 6 votes. Roflwaffle being one of them. If they could mafia would have saved him and forced a mislynch. So i think that 2 mafia WOULD NOT have voted for Heavonearth first day. It just doesnt pay to have him lynched. A NL would have benefited them so much more. So under that reasoning its my opinion that any of these people had a likely mafia flip from this point: Astinmcc RIP Crossfire S0lstice Trackdoor His list of likely mafia are all confirmed towns. He tries to reason that both mafia wouldn't have bussed their teammate. Under this logic it clears both him and roflwaffle from suspicion. Lol last time i ever stick my neck out for someone i think is town, what a retard alan. your argument that i contradict myself is invalid. I don't ever contradict myself, i purely state that no-one is ever confirmed town until they flip after saying that i think you are safe. read it again bro. Getting upset because someone tried to point out a contradiction he made. "I don't ever contradict myself" .. This actually seems too bold for a townie to say. A townie's game is ruled by uncertainty, to state that you never contradict yourself is like saying you'll never make a mistake. Very suspicious. my case on alan. he is a wanker. bahahahaha. that makes me smile every time. Sorry for being rude. but this game gets me super anxious. i did over react a bit. i'd be happy to be on the list if there was one generated. but i want trackd00r at the #1 spot on the list. that's my trade off. bold move from s0lstice and i am also wary of this being a scum-slip. how about: Trackd00r, Me, s0stice, 4th person (i dont mind because i think Trackd00r will flip red). i'm wary of unforgiven also, he's replaced MJ yet morphed into the same character. Points fingers at trackd00r, s0lstice and unforgiven. All of whom are dead. Following this he disappears from the thread. Interesting note. He said he'd reserve judgement on me until after Day 1, but he never commented on me. This is in a mafia's favour cuz it looked like I would be lynched anyways. ---------------------- Summary I had an epiphany. Milton said that after the rofl and heavon were killed, the last remaining mafia doesn't have to do anything special to appear townie. He just has to play like a townie. This means that, if we're looking at golden, the most important information is actually right at the beginning of the game. Extreme lurking like what golden is doing is beneficial to mafia as long as he doesn't get modkilled. Basically town just rips each other apart and he never has to say a word. Now, it pains me to say this, but if I compare D1/N1 between Miltonkram and Golden, practically every post golden makes has suspicious elements to it. The reasoning that HeavOnEarth targeted golden so early is flimsy - after all, who expects a strong case to be made that early on Day 1? Perhaps it was a clever distractionary move. It may have been that Golden's best move to do after rofl was killed was to just disappear completely. If he had kept up his style of posting post N1 he definitely would have been under a lot of scrutiny, but since he disappeared no one really paid attention to him. Help me out sciberbia and crossfire. I have now posted two big cases, one on Milton and one on Golden. Do you think my case on Milton is weak or that there are any particular things about Milton's posts that confirm he is town in your mind? Do you think my case on golden has merit? I have been single-mindedly going after Milton because I thought my points were conclusive, but now I'm not sure. The NK and Milton's soft defence of me can only be explained by WIFOM and desperate play if he's scum, but if golden is scum then he's in a good position (minus the possibility of being modkilled for lack of participation). I will have to mull over my thoughts a bit. | ||
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The post afterwords says he can't believe he missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire and maybe he's totally wrong. Looks like a possible preparation to redirect attention against crossfire. By the way this completely explains the first night kill. Alan's primary suspicion was crossfire. Crossfire had a decent amount of people suspicious of him. Golden is preparing to redirect D2 lynch to Crossfire. | ||
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What are everyone else's thoughts on his filter from previous games? sigh, golden seems like such a nice guy compared to this game =[ | ||
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One thing I will add about golden is that he might have killed austinmcc just because golden was really pissed off at him? I think I actually brought that up earlier too. Certainly fits 'frustrated angry golden'. | ||
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