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@sciberbia
Uh.. regarding night actions I don't know. I honestly haven't even considered them yet cuz a) last game I died day 1 and b) we didn't even have any blues. Sooo.. I will comment on night actions in the morning when I wake up.
It seems like a really relevant topic so I want to explain why I posted a giant scumhunting thread and then didn't talk about night actions at all. Well that's the reason. See you guys in like 8 hours.
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Yes, I did vote you, but you forget that votes are easily removable, and the fact that you had to write a sensationalist paragraph in red text rather then just poke through the obvious logical holes in my cases convince me that you have something to lose, whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play.
sciberbia quoted this post and pointed out that he doesn't see any logical holes in rofl's play, and that he doesn't think rofl did either.
The part I find strange is not whether or not rofl saw 'logical holes', but how there's an implicit expectation that alan would 'poke through' those 'obvious logical holes'.
As a townie you make your cases with as few logical holes as possible so that you can put the most pressure on your target and force out information. You don't want, and certainly don't expect, those holes to be pointed out. As scum, though, you know that your arguments have holes in them, this kind of wording comes out a lot more naturally.
It's also telling that he straight up admits that his case was full of holes, which serves to ease the pressure off of him for making such a weak case (weak in his mind).
The list of potential mafia is also very strange. It also has the trait of looking like he's contributing without actually contributing anything at all.
Also take a look at this post:
You've defeated yourself in your own argument against me, with the explanation as to why I backed down on alan133. I backed down because I hadn't received any support towards my case. You also defeated yourself by saying that I'm trying to keep myself out of the spotlight, if I wanted that, I wouldn't have been the third person to post a case, let alone one I knew would net me a bunch of flak.
I made the case to put pressure on someone that was lacking any real opinion, whether because he felt that there wasn't enough data to form one, or because he was hiding from the spotlight himself.
The evidence or suspicions that you have brought up can be answered so easily I'm not sure why you didn't come up with them yourself.
I wrote down early on in my personal notes how the 'you defeated yourself' lines seemed like a very scum-like thing to do. Rather than simply defending himself, he uses Milton's words against him, to further discredit Milton. I find that full of scum motivation. After all, if you can use a player's words against them, it feels like your case is a lot stronger.
"I backed down because I hadn't received any support towards my case" is also not very townie. Town motivation is to convince people to agree with your case. If you don't get support but you still feel your points are valid, you continue to press. The fact that rofl is so concerned about having support is very fitting for scum.
All in all, I agree that rofl looks extremely scummy and the #1 candidate for vig shot or Day 2 lynch.
It seems we have reached a strong consensus on who scum #2 is. Before the night is over, I think we should start talking about other candidates for the day 2 lynch to gain a more broad discussion before the night is over. In particular, I would like to ask for opinions on my case against trackd00r.
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First, my defense of s0lstice's case against me
Look at how she dances around. She explains what was going through her head in 3 different ways: -I knew the case was weak when I posted it -I didn't know the case was weak until people told me after I posted it -I thought my case may have been weak, but I was just trying to get the discussion going.
It's a matter of degrees. I pushed my case against trackd00r so early on day 1, I wasn't expecting it to be that strong. At the same time, I wasn't expecting it to be so weak that everyone can just say 'I agree that the case has no merit'.
Thus, I knew the case was weak. I thought it may be weak but I was trying to get the discussion going. I didn't know the case was as weak as it was until after I read the responses. I see no contradiction or 'dancing' here.
It is her stated reason for wanting to appear aggressive that makes it a scum-slip instead.
Wanting to start the thread off boldly is a scum slip as much as wanting to get discussion rolling ASAP is a scum slip.
Her case on alan133:
Your analysis comes down to, my case wasn't bad. I really went after the read.
When I switched my vote you said I drop the case like it's hot. I clearly stated the reasons for dropping the case, and it makes no sense for me, as town, to go after alan who started acting in a way that negated my case against him.
She parrots the reasons for pardoning alan133 pretty effectively, and actually does some grunt work by adding to the case on her teammate before jumping aboard. The fact of it is though, even after all of that she looks like a shapeshifter. She's very aware of what is making her look town and adjusts accordingly. Trackd00r doesn't look scummy? Get off trackd00r. Alan133 is looking town? Get off alan. HeavOnEarth is looking scummy? Get on HeavOnEarth.
Adding the case to my 'teammate' by bussing him is a funny way to phrase 'finds more solid evidence against a potential scum'.
You are saying I adjust my actions accordingly to what make me look town... But the simplest explanation is that I am town, and I'm acting like a town should.
I pressured both trackd00r and alan, and backed down when I found my cases weren't valid anymore. I did my research on HeavOnEarth and voted him based on my own reads.
Following the lynch of her 1st teammate, and the certain death of her 2nd teammate, she is back to full throttle on trackd00r, with no in between.
This is consistent with my playstyle this entire game.
Here is her 'backing Crossfire up.'
...
To me that looks like: I don't know.
Rather than calling his behaviour suspicious, I gave a null read (pending further information), where I rebute some of the arguments against Crossfire and state that he's not playing like he did the previous game as Mafia. I also noted that his helpful tone was consistent with his helpful tone in the mafia QT, 'which makes me feel more inclined to think that he's actually trying to help'.
Regarding my current case on trackd00r, four of my points you said 'could be scummy, could be newb/busy town'. You call it a contrived case yet you admit that my points can be seen as scummy. A decent scum isn't going to make one big mistake, they're going to make a bunch of small mistakes that all add up later. The fact that I can find so many examples of possibly scummy behaviour, but no real actions that have good town motivation is suspicious. I'd rather call him out on it than just assume he's a noob town.
Also:
4- Weak arguments can be scummy. They can also be newb town. Just ask our newcomer Unforgiven, who made some kick-ass reads but couldn't argue them effectively.
The difference between Unforgiven and trackd00r is unforgiven had no reservations about labelling people as scum and pressuring them. He just couldn't or wouldn't explain his thoughts. Trackd00r did not call out any of his three primary targets for scummy or suspicious behaviour, and then conceded that HeavenOnEarth was suspicious at the very end of day 1.
This is a non-opinion opinion. She lists points for and against, dances around a hard stance. This is what scum looks like when they talk about their teammates with no public opinion to go off of.
Remember that shapeshifter thing I was talking about? She goes from 0 to 60 on this guy, when the thread was telling her it was time to. Add another: she busses the shit out of her other teammate roflwaffles just after the paint dries on target painted on him.
I was busy with my case against alan at the time, and a quick read over his filter didn't ring any warning bells.
I have nothing to say on roflwaffle. You can call it bussing or you can call it agreeing with a well-presented case.
Summary:
She made a big blunder early game with her first case, contradicting herself and retreating from it as if it was leprous. Following that, she basically bounces around like a ping-pong ball, based on the current temperature of the thread. She is aggressive when she feels it's safe, and withdraws when it's not. All-in-all I feel she played a pretty good game, but the evidence is still bountiful.
Did not contradict myself. I do not think I blundered. I did not bounce around. I analysed the game and based on my judgement I focused my attention on the one person I believed was the most scum, and I didn't let off until I was convinced otherwise.
The only evidence against me is from viewing my actions from a biased point of view. I've played a strong town game, and you're trying to spin it like I'm playing a strong mafia game by playing a strong town game.
As for trackd00r's self defense
1) Your argument about that says ''target the same people is wrong''. It varies from game to game, from context to context. In my first game, for example, I was town (bad played >.<) and in the third day pretty much 3 of the mafia players went against me, even though they lacked of anyone else's support. About mouldyJeb case, it was indeed suspicious, then I backed off my pressure to him because I considered that it was just confusing bad town play. Anyways, unforgiven has replaced him, so now we can see the same role but with hopefully understandable posts.
You back off mouldy, possibly because it was just confusing bad town play, but also possibly because rofl and heavOn both were attacking him.
2) I don't get what you are trying to say here. You say that I go after crossfire because it was most affluent case, and then I go after golden because it had a few followers. Well, what player should you think I just push then? Because, those 2 conditions you mentioned are opposite one each other. I don't see any other option. Bandwagon on crossfire is scummy. Pushing golden when heavOnEarth is also pushing him is scummy. Like you said, mafia play varies from game to game, from context to context. The fact that you bandwagon on an obvious target and also attack a non-obvious target isnt suspicious. It's that you bandwagon weakly on an obvious target, and you attacked golden weakly alongside HeavOnEarth.
3) About heaven, I didn't really put a lot of attention to him. After quite a few people pushed the case, more logic I found on it. I didn't even had a read on him. Anyways, I was expecting to post some more, since in that time, his pressure against golden was quite interesting.
A simple argument to make. Still suspicious considering all the other things you've been doing.
4) That's how I judge D1. People who don't actually contribute much anything, having the potential to give more elaborated opinions, are the ones which I wanted to push. About my play, I tried to do some questions, that didn't really get me to nowhere. I have to admit that my cases are weak, but again, that doesn't mean I'm mafia.
* Trying to contribute is town play. * Appearing to contribute is mafia play.
My argument is you didn't contribute at all, but you attempted to put on the appearance of contributing. In other words, mafia play. Out of everything this is the most important point.
5) You are basically underestimating the power of a vote. I want to emphasize your statement ''and wholly unnecessary vote''. Why do you think is was not necessary? For town, every vote counts. Just imagine, like a mafia massive vote switch in the last minute. Or, What If golden forgot to format his vote and it wasn't counted in? Any situations should be considered.
I'm saying you look scum for jumping on at the last minute.
Oh and by the way, I think you say that the vote was so unnecessary because you were 100% sure that Heaven was mafia.
Interesting attempt to twist my words. I never said anything of the sort.
I'm not convinced by either s0lstice's defense of trackd00r or trackd00r's defense of himself. I want to hear other people's thoughts on the matter.
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+ Show Spoiler +On June 16 2012 07:50 trackd00r wrote:@Suki Show nested quote +On June 16 2012 05:50 suki wrote: Bandwagon on crossfire is scummy. Pushing golden when heavOnEarth is also pushing him is scummy. Like you said, mafia play varies from game to game, from context to context. The fact that you bandwagon on an obvious target and also attack a non-obvious target isnt suspicious. It's that you bandwagon weakly on an obvious target, and you attacked golden weakly alongside HeavOnEarth.
Sorry Suki, but I don't follow your logic. Why would I attack head on an obvious target? Wouldn't it be better to leave it there meanwhile I try to look for other targets which are actually more important? As mafia it makes sense to attack a target who is under suspicion by several players. I'm not sure what you mean by looking for targets which are more important. Show nested quote +On June 16 2012 05:50 suki wrote:} You back off mouldy, possibly because it was just confusing bad town play, but also possibly because rofl and heavOn both were attacking him.
I hope that statement was a satire of s0lstice post, because you used his exactly same logic to prove your point, which you didn't because you haven't answered it yet.
The argument is basically that its easy to pick out scum motivation with this play.
I just realized something. Regarding mouldyjeb, your first and only post about him pre-lynch was, "Anyways, I can't tell if this is scum play or just plain bad town play". In your defense against my recent case against you, you reiterated this saying "I considered that it was just confusing bad town play".
But your case against crossfire and golden was that they hadn't "brought anything new to the table", that their opinions were nothing more than an "influence from other players". That basically their play was 'unsatisfactory'. Why then, would you list crossfire and golden as lynch candidates, and not Mouldy who you clearly said and reiterated was playing confusing bad town play?
I originally made the point to point out possible scum motivation, but delving further, I find this inconsistency really suspicious.
Maybe you can chalk this up to noob town play on your part? You simply forgot that you found Mouldy's play confusing and bad when you were writing your 'unsatisfactory' cases against Crossfire and Golden? (While also forgetting to post your case on me, I might add)
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Woops, I screwed up the quotes. Let me repeat the entire thing here with the fixed quotations:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 16 2012 07:50 trackd00r wrote:@Suki Show nested quote +On June 16 2012 05:50 suki wrote: Bandwagon on crossfire is scummy. Pushing golden when heavOnEarth is also pushing him is scummy. Like you said, mafia play varies from game to game, from context to context. The fact that you bandwagon on an obvious target and also attack a non-obvious target isnt suspicious. It's that you bandwagon weakly on an obvious target, and you attacked golden weakly alongside HeavOnEarth.
Sorry Suki, but I don't follow your logic. Why would I attack head on an obvious target? Wouldn't it be better to leave it there meanwhile I try to look for other targets which are actually more important? As mafia it makes sense to attack a target who is under suspicion by several players. I'm not sure what you mean by looking for targets which are more important.
Show nested quote +On June 16 2012 05:50 suki wrote:} You back off mouldy, possibly because it was just confusing bad town play, but also possibly because rofl and heavOn both were attacking him.
I hope that statement was a satire of s0lstice post, because you used his exactly same logic to prove your point, which you didn't because you haven't answered it yet.
The argument is basically that its easy to pick out scum motivation with this play.
I just realized something. Regarding mouldyjeb, your first and only post about him pre-lynch was, "Anyways, I can't tell if this is scum play or just plain bad town play". In your defense against my recent case against you, you reiterated this saying "I considered that it was just confusing bad town play".
But your case against crossfire and golden was that they hadn't "brought anything new to the table", that their opinions were nothing more than an "influence from other players". That basically their play was 'unsatisfactory'. Why then, would you list crossfire and golden as lynch candidates, and not Mouldy who you clearly said and reiterated was playing confusing bad town play?
I originally made the point to point out possible scum motivation, but delving further, I find this inconsistency really suspicious.
Maybe you can chalk this up to noob town play on your part? You simply forgot that you found Mouldy's play confusing and bad when you were writing your 'unsatisfactory' cases against Crossfire and Golden? (While also forgetting to post your case on me, I might add)
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gg austin .
Also...... why austin? will have to analyse further later. Just checked for the night kill (And good job on the description zelblade or whoever wrote it, there was so much suspense, I pressed the arrow key on the scrollbar down line by line in anticipation T_____T ). Now I gotta run~
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gg roflwaffle. I know. Being scum for your first game is REALLY REALLY tough and nerve-wracking. Hope to see you around in future games.
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I just wanted to pop in quickly before I head out for the day. I had planned to do analysis this morning when I woke up, but I slept in. I will be gone the whole day but after I am back I will post my thoughts.
It would be really really great if everyone who has not done so posts their response to my case on trackd00r.
And trackd00r, for your defense against my case rather than come up with another point by point rebuttal, I would like you to demonstrate your ability to scum hunt and make solid reads against who you think should be the best day 2 lynch. Like I said, the thing I find most suspicious about you is that you haven't committed to any reads of scum or suspicious behaviour. Up to this point none of your posts look like they're actively helping town. Well, it's now Day 2, THREE people are dead. There should be plenty of evidence. You have no excuse now.
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For what it's worth I made the case on trackd00r before anyone else put a case out on N1.
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Anyways, hum. I'm a little disappointed.
Firstly, I'm disappointed that nobody's commented on my case against trackd00r. I put a lot of time into it and I don't think my points are easily dismissed.
Second, I'm disappointed that s0lstice is tunneling me so hard. My impressions of him are town, and he has made great reads in the past, but he is frankly wrong about me here. Sciberbia jumping on me means two influential townies are going to try their hardest to get me lynched and, as my defence has already been posted and disregarded, it seems they won't back off.
My read on golden is that he is not suspicious. I looked through his filter and can't see anything bad. I believe alan is vigi. I believe sciberbia and s0lstice are both town as they have been playing a great game and have played consistent with what I saw from them in Mafia XV. Milton is also the same milton from XV. My read on Crossfire has already been posted and I believe he is more likely to be town than scum. I believe unforgiven is town, because he would have pushed for a better night target than austin since he is really good at reading people. (Regarding austin's NK I think it's just noise. There's no reason not to kill an influential townie on N1, except to sow confusion). That leaves trackd00r who I think is very suspicious.
Now, I have not read in depth on everyone here. I spent a few hours putting together my case on trackd00r, as I spent a few hours putting my case on alan (and the subsequent follow ups).
If find s0lstice's tunneling of me (and lack of comment on my defence) very strange. Maybe not suspicious, but strange.
I feel that I've been upfront for this whole game. I've stated my suspicions boldly, presented my cases clearly. I've been wrong, about alan and about HeavOn (the so called 'scummy' defense of HeavOn) but that's not a scummy thing in itself. I'm being targeted because I haven't been scared of making mistakes, of calling people out, of changing my vote to who I think is the most scummy. I spend a lot of time on analysing the person I think is most suspicious rather than making shallow analysis on everyone who I think could be suspicious..
I have things to do tonight, I also have things to do tomorrow during the day so I won't have the time to do any heavy analysis prior to the lynch, although I will check the thread periodically.
On trackd00r's most recent post:
+ Show Spoiler +@ Alan and All
I actually like alan113's case. I must say that Golden answered very aggressively to alan's case. Compared of what I see in his previous posts, he was more relaxed while giving reads and stuff.
I find his defense quite worrying: ''you are a retard.'' , ''i dont hold any undergraduate degree, i'm hardly a scholar.'' are points which clearly show a state of stress.
While it is true that anyone can get defensive, I find it quite weird that Golden is acting like this, because after we killed two mafia in just 72 hours, it must be a very pleasant and comfortable time for us. Assuming that he is town, he should be pretty happy and calm in the search of looking for the last scum, but on the other hand...
Golden reacts aggressively to Alan's attack. I don't find this state of stress a solid case against golden, as he had previously overreacted when austin accused him of not delivering on his promises. trackd00r's assumption that townies should be pleasant and comfortable ... is dumb. There is still one mafia left and we are still on a ticking time limit. He uses read text to illustrate that he is suspicious of golden, and to his credit he is pointing out suspicious behaviour rather than bad play.. But I find his argument weak and not all that suspicious, and he didn't even straight out say that he felt golden was acting suspiciously or scummy. This post does nothing to change my read against him.
Neither s0lstice nor sciberbia (who both pretty much have the same case against me) have given my defence any credit or really even a response. No one except alan has really posted their in-depth thoughts on trackd00r. And trackd00r still hasn't delivered any useful posts in his own defence.
I think I've gone through everything I need/want to say.
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Oh, right
##vote trackd00r
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@sciberbia
Well, I don't know what to say. I guess trackd00r just caught me eye first.
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@crossfire
So defending yourself is scummy? NOPE! In no way is defending yourself scummy. If you never defended yourself when you are town and this causes you to be lynched, you actually HURT the town. Her advice is actually good mafia advice. Ignore the case against you and hope it dies while pressuring others. never said that. thats just twisting my words.
This isn't scummy. He is being attacked for being neutral and playing it safe, so to try to satisfy his critics he decides to throw out some suspicions. Eventually he will have to throw out his own suspicions, so he might as well do it when some people are attacking him for not having any to show that he is trying to play as a team.
his suspicions target inconsistencies in his opponent's behaviour. ie 'i did this to you and you called it scummy, but look, you also did it to me, so how are your actions not scummy?' if you're going to throw out your suspicions, you should be doing it in a way that hilites scum/suspicious behaviour. pointing out these kind of inconsistencies isn't going to help the scum hunt and it only serves as a method of self defence.
His stance is classic blue behavior. Stay in the background, read other people's cases and weigh their validity to inform his own decision on what night action to take. It is also not bad vanilla townie play (in some instances) in the sense that too many cases and suspects just confuse everyone. We only need to find one scum each day. Also, he went against his beliefs because people were pressuring him to give his suspicion, so to defend himself he gave his suspicions.
i have no idea he's blue. you're judging me with information that i didn't have. it's also scummy to stay in the background, i was pressuring him to actually contribute to town.
Being active and controversial generally means that there will be evidence to make a case against you. It is still early in the day and he never really wanted to be in the spotlight to begin with so he is unsure about his reads. not wanting to be in the spotlight is also mafia trait.
I don't think your case against me is strong at all crossfire. It comes down a lot to knowing now that alan was blue, information that nobody had at that point in the game, and my pressure to force him to contribute more towards the town, as opposed to staying out of the spotlight. At this point, we know that he had good motivation for doing so because he was blue, but that's information we didn't have back then.
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Also crossfire, please elaborate why you think my case on trackd00r is bad.
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s0lstice, I think you did your job right and that if I really were scum, your pressure on me would be extremely effective. Don't feel bad for pushing me, that's what a good townie should do. Plus you can't be right ALL the time right? haha.
I take it as a huge compliment that you think I'd be up to playing such a risky/advanced level of scum. I have the unique perspective of having a town read on everybody (more or less), including myself, leaving the only likely suspect to be trackd00r. I also feel very strongly about my case on him (hence my disappointment that nobody's really commented on it), and his 'OOPS' post just confirms my suspicions.
@sciberbia
My suspicions toward you are a result of finding the most likely explanation. Either a,b, and c above are true because you are mafia, or they are true because you have had some bad luck and bad reads. I think the more likely explanation is the former.
I just really have had bad luck and bad reads. I have to say, it feels pretty awful to put so much effort into hunting scum, only to keep missing. I'd love to go over my thoughts behind my moves this game, but I'll do that post-game so I don't clog up the thread when we really need to focus on lynching scum.
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I really think we've got this game in the bag, but for what it's worth I dislike s0lstice's plan.
Mafia is a game whose landscape changes as the game progresses. Town gets more information the longer the game goes and thus more powerful, mafia gets weaker as they must always cover their tracks. Agreeing to a four-day set plan discounts all the information that you will get during each successive lynch/night kill.
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My outlook on the game post-lynch:
People will be taking a much closer look at me. It's to be expected, after the case that s0lstice and sciberbia brought up. I feel I pushed a good case on trackd00r and its frustrating that he wasn't able to defend himself adequately.
I once again went through all the players in the game. I think I am just going to accept the hard truth that I just blow at analysis.
My reasoning for tunnelling someone aggressively is that if there really are other scummy players, they will be picked out by the other townies, meanwhile my analysis will either find scum, or force townies to act more townie, or force mistakes from scum.
There are two people who stand out at the moment in my opinion:
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Mouldyjeb/unforgiven: + Show Spoiler + Both HeavOnEarth and roflwaffle were on Mouldyjeb's case since Day 1. Highly highly doubt that they would double bus their own teammate that early.
Read: unforgiven very lurky. Possibly town, possibly scum, but can't analyse due to lack of posts. He looks more townie due to mafia double bus early Day 1.
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golden:
Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game.
despite saying this, he is hardly aggressive.
Found Mouldyjeb suspicious. Found austinmcc suspicious but doesn't explain why.
Austinmcc pressured golden for 'broken promises to contribute more'. Golden got really really offended at it. Could see an angry golden just shooting austinmcc N1 just to get back at him. Haha.
I only glazed over the HeavonEarth issue when i was catching up on everything. I feel like a nob because i remember he had that attack at me and i never really addressed it. I don't like defensive voting per se but i'll form and post some opinions on him shortly.
forgets that heavOnEarth attacked him. Possibly just didn't give his teammate's post much thought.
from crossfire's lynch summary post ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15090823 ), note that Golden was 6th to vote for heav0nEarth. Right in the middle of the pack is a good time for a mafia to jump on a bandwagon.
Here is alan's case on golden ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15104147 , summary here : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15104403 )
It is pretty in depth and I suggest people read it.
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Also note that golden gave no reason for jumping on trackd00r. He simply stated he said trackd00r was #1 on his scum list and voted him.
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In summary:
I am town. That's my only defence at this point. If you believe me, then I hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. If you don't believe me, then I still hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden.
Going to bed soon but I'll keep up with the thread and post my thoughts. Just a little too burned out to do any sort of heavy analysis right now.
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hmm. looking at the replies that happened while i was writing my post/eating dinner, I think I am going to get lynched.
Plus people have pretty much cleared golden and unforgiven, which were the two people I suggested as most suspicious.
What this means is, we are looking at risky mafia play early on day 1. Maybe even an extremely convincing bus of a teammate to gain townie credibility.
I beseech you guys, even if you are 100% sure I am the last mafia, you have to have to have to keep analysing for the last mafia, because I am town and when you lynch me I will bleed green. Don't waste the entire day patting yourselves on the back for catching scum suki cuz you'll be unpleasantly surprised come nightfall =[
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@s0lstice
I don't know. Now that you put it that way, it seems so unlikely. HeavOnEarth doesn't seem like a sophisticated player that would do something like that. Golden also doesn't seem like he'd be around enough to orchestrate that sort of thing.
You can lynch me, but it's not going to do town any good.
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Yeah. Welcome to bizarro bus world. You're here already you just don't know it yet
Both roflwaffle and heavonearth do not strike me as that sophisticated of players. Thus, I don't think that there was any plan for cooperation from the start between the two dead scum and our last remaining one.
The most likely scenario is that Scum #3 is a strong player, who decided that it would be in his best interest to bus both of his teammates early to gain extreme townie cred. This strategy worked well in XV with Xatalos taking the win, although he did make some slips early on that could have exposed him if people had looked into him more in depth. Of course, an early bus or even double bus is so risky for mafia that it seems really unlikely, but that is the situation we are in now.
It doesn't matter if you believe me now. When I flip, you can come back to these words and think carefully.
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The most important lesson to be learned in mafia XV was that the pattern of night kills, and townie's impressions of night kills, was very important to discovering that Xatalos was the last mafia.
If player X was heavily tunneling player Y, and player X gets shot, does that mean player Y was scum? or maybe thats just what scum wants you to think. The town attitude in XV was that decyphering the meaning behind night kills was so WIFOMy that it wasn't worth doing. This lead to mafia being able to shoot the strongest player every night without fear of having the night shot analysed. At the very end, Xatalos shot the one person who was against him, thus securing a win because he knew the other two remaining players wouldn't analyse the shot and realize that the shot only made sense if he made it, not the #1 suspect at the time.
We saw austinmcc get shot N1. Someone will get shot N2. These shots have meaning, and just because it's WIFOMy doesn't mean its not worth discussing.
If the last remaining mafia was bold enough to start the game with a double bus, they most likely won't slip, and they might not even have any suspicious behaviour if they are good enough. The last remaining source of information is the pattern of NK's. Don't forget that.
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