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@s0Lstice
I see. I missed a few things and underestimated the town benefit with a vig claim. Originally I thought scum is just going to kill off a confirmed target, but that is not really a good kill for scum considering vig is now officially a VT.
However, I think unless the vig is among the lynch candidate, or is in danger of getting lynched, he should not claim. There is no reason to claim if everyone has a strong town read on him. If a claim is made:
-If it is a fake claim, real vig should always COUNTER CLAIM.
-If there are no counter claims, I suggest we take his word for who he is, and pick another candidate for a lynch.
I also think that if there is a cop and has a guilty, out with it, if not, continue hunting.
That is enough discussion on blue's action. Unless there is anything I said is flawed, we should now concentrate on hunting the last scum.
I hope there is more post from other people
I will post my summary soon once I am done with my analysis.
EDIT: Just noticed I clicked on preview not post
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Hi, I am going to post my agendas on the analysis I am working on.
@s0Lstice on suki - I am defending suki
@analysis on austinmcc'd death - He avoided the spotlight and looks fishy to me. Motivations for scums to kill him.
@My main FoS O.Golden_ne - friendliness, no sense of him protecting himself against Lies, and supporting evidence.
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quick reply:
@ Golden
Oh Golden, you mean this+ Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 19:07 alan133 wrote:@ O.GoldenI find Golden carelessly friendly. + Show Spoiler + Reluctant to vote on
suki or alan113 at the current time, because i honestly feel like theyre clashing for the wrong reasons.
i'd be more inclined to lynch suki just because of the tunneling, however i dont feel a Mafia would be so aggressive day one (MAAAASSIVE RISK, but risk = reward?).
He don't "feel" like any of us is scum. He thinks Alan and suki is town. Then he commented about Crossfire + Show Spoiler +Crossfire seems okay too me, i liked his posts. If he posted a few more like it, with about 40% more content (pulled a # out of my ass) on players and some reads/opinions on cases i'd be a happy chappy. Time will tell on this character.
He thinks crossfire is townie, until this + Show Spoiler +honestly i can't believe i missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire99. FML maybe i got the totally wrong read on him. Ima refresh my mind on HeavonEarth and Sciberbia and then post after i mull their feeds over a game of SOTIS. Talk soon lovers.
GauldenWahn How are you sure sciberbia is not a scum, trying to misguide you? You seems to agree with anyone, but when someone else is questioned, you suddenly turn your Super Scum Detector towards said person. I find his reason for voting HeavonEarth echoes from other players, while this is a non issue consider how late he is and there is nothing much to add, These sentences really bothers me. + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
also, if we're too take a hard stance on lurking behaviour. Perhaps we can focus on someone with a smaller content count than myself? Worth a thought mang.
in regards to HeavonEarth.
In relation to my:
a) knowing i'm town.
b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case".
c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments.
i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away.
#VOTE: HeavonEarth
i still maintain a #FOS on MouldyJeb
i still owe the group a comment on Crossfire99 but i honestly dont have time for it before work. The first highlighted sentence seems to me you are trying to avoid a fight, you are afraid to stand out too much, even after being able to reply with a convincing answer for your defense, you just want it to stop right here, right now, "don't look at me". While I understand not everyone wants to stand out - The second statement set off alarm for me. Unless neutrals are involved, everyone "knows" themselves as town. This just shows me you are constantly aware that you want to present yourself as "town". + Show Spoiler +comments:
i like suki's approach to the situation, she's changed it up and she's added some new content to her vote which is refreshing. We'll obviously need to keep an eye on Alan113 just because everyone needs to be pressured several times during the course of the game, i just never found him to be as scummy as say HeavonEarth is looking atm.
SOOO much angleshooting from peoples previous performances in other games. Keep it relevant is all i'm saying.
This post agree with how I painted you so far. You diverts attention to me. What did you add to that post? - I approve suki's new post (Because it is refreshing..? How about comment on the content itself?)
- Everyone look at Alan113!+ Show Spoiler + He obviously needs a little more pressure!
But wait, what did you said a few post ealier? + Show Spoiler +Alan113 is now hard-tunneled by suki for the rest of the day. I'm finding this the most frustrating day one tunnel i've seen, i was indecisive regarding suki and then i saw her most recent posts and hoped to god she looked at something other than Alan113. But her argument against Alan113 here is essentially saying that he is mafia because he is defending himself. I'm finding it hard to see how Alan113 can do anything but defend himself up until this point. If I overlooked anything, please point it out. My point: - Golden agrees easily with people - Not what I would expect from a newbie town
- Golden keeps diverting the spotlight away from him without giving much contribution.
- Golden tries to please other players, passively support cases.
O.Golden is my secondary Suspect
I will reformat the contradiction part
Earlier, you said:
Alan113 is now hard-tunneled by suki for the rest of the day. I'm finding this the most frustrating day one tunnel i've seen, i was indecisive regarding suki and then i saw her most recent posts and hoped to god she looked at something other than Alan113. But her argument against Alan113 here is essentially saying that he is mafia because he is defending himself. I'm finding it hard to see how Alan113 can do anything but defend himself up until this point.
But later a few post later:
We'll obviously need to keep an eye on Alan113 just because everyone needs to be pressured several times during the course of the game
There is a mental disconnection. There is nothing in between. You simply agree with people when they post a case.
I don't see how you answered my question:
and alan i dont see the contradiction you underlined. you were being tunnelled. when you get tunnelled by someone its incredibly hard to do anything but defend yourself for a whole day. thats what i was saying. no contradiction.
My premise: You started out defending me, and suggested I got tunnelled too hard. Later, you say I "obviously" should be tunnelled.
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@s0Lstice's on Suki
I agree her first post is a blunder. Pointing out contradictions when there are non, and boldly vote based on that. I also don't like the way she back out from her "meh" case against trackd00r. Someone pointed out that she said it was a "not so strong contradiction" instead of apologizing for misunderstanding.
However, her later posts were more creditable. When I wrote about a "conspiracy" between rolf and suki, rolf shys away while suki attacks me head on. Suki's case was focused on what I have said, and mentioned rolf only for factual references.
I like the way suki backed off from me. She provided a reason other than just switching votes. Also, during her tunnelling, she did asked me to do something "good" for the town to show my alignment instead of just pressuring me.
Her second case on trackd00r was more than just a "meh" case. Her reason was solid, and I suggest that you read it . I don't see why she shouldn't make a case on trackd00r just because she did a "meh" case on him before. On her crossfire post, she was making an analysis on him and is still on the fence regarding crossfire, I don't see that as a scum move. If you are not sure, there's no reason you shouldn't say so.
I don't think she bounces like a ping pong ball. Her actions were justifiable, and give her other townie traits I am putting her on the "town" side.
@Austin's death
I originally thought it was going to be either sciberbia, s0Lstice or me biting the bullet.
I don't have a strong impression on austin before the Day 2 post. I have a slight town read on him, but I remain cautious of him, and thought he had a low profile. The part where he voted Crossfire seems really weird to me. I kept wondering if this is a WiFOM, or he feels he have strong enough reasons to think Crossfire is scum, and it does not cause a NL, so why not.
I went over austin's posts without doubting his town role and realized he contributed much more than I originally thought. He didn't seem to post much, but his analysis is very strong. I thought scum's decision is bad, but now I really wish austin was among the ones that is still alive here.
Austin's main FoS towards the end of the day was Crossfire. However, Crossfire has legitimate reasons to be missing + Show Spoiler +, and Austin drop his suspicion on Crossfire.
I noticed austin's post on O.Golden_ne that no one seems to give a damn about, perhaps other than trackd00r. His case on Golden strikes me as it being similar to the case I brought about. His main argument against Golden is most of Golden wrote was fillers, despite it looks like he is contributing.
All for all, reading austin's post convinced me to re-raise my suspicion towards O.Golden_ne.
@O.Golden_ne
Despite me refuting myself previously, I would like to re-establish my case against Golden due to austin's filters. The reason that caused myself to doubt this case was due to HeavonEarth's vote on Gold, but now I dismissed it as it can potentially be a bus.
Please take a look a the spoiler on the previous post I wrote, I dumped my whole case against him there, and I don't want to spam my case
My summary for Golden is
- O.Golden_ne holds little to no doubt to anyone.
- O.Golden_ne agrees with everyone, especially on cases not against scums
- O.Golden_ne made a few long posts, but it mostly echoes what other people had said.
- O.Golden_ne does do not remember his own arguments for a case. He forgets about it in another post and made contradicting arguments. It feels like he blatantly made arguments so he can agree.
- O.Golden_ne redirects the spotlight away from himself
- O.Golden_ne gives very little insights. He merely say "I don't like this", "I feel like" without saying why. There is a more recent example: + Show Spoiler +
Its my opinion that s0lstice is green. so its between trackd00r and Crossfire for me.
All in all, O.Golden_ne looks really fishy and right at this moment, I am comfortable to lynch him
@Suki on Trackd00r
My day 1 impression on Trackd00r is that he is very careful around people and fast to accuse. I felt like this is because he don't know who to really trust. It also looks like he is trying to contribute. He posts his analysis and has his original opinion.
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I changed my mind on vigilante claim. Originally I thought it is bad because I think a confirmed blue will always get killed off. However, I realize one shot vigil literally a Vanilla Townie since he has no role to play.
If scum decided to go after him at night, he is taking the shot for any other potential blue.
I am the Vigilante and I shot roflwaffle55
@O.Golden_ne
Addressing to some of your answers:
+ Show Spoiler +•O.Golden_ne holds little to no doubt to anyone. Crossfire + Trackdoor I am talking about in your day 1 play, it strikes me that you treat everyone as a townie•O.Golden_ne agrees with everyone, especially on cases not against scums I dont agree with you. Town or scum, no one will agree getting themselves lynched•O.Golden_ne made a few long posts, but it mostly echoes what other people had said. Theres somethign wrong with sharing the same opinion as another player? ok.... I am saying •O.Golden_ne does do not remember his own arguments for a case. He forgets about it in another post and made contradicting arguments. It feels like he blatantly made arguments so he can agree. you are a retard. I suggest you keep clam. If there is something wrong about it you can simply say it out. Personal attacks and flipping out is a anti-town trait•O.Golden_ne redirects the spotlight away from himself only because i know i'm town and its a waste of time. far out man. now i'm gonna get slack for saying im town! haha the mafia will be reading this laughing his arse off. I agree. Scum and town will want to do this.•O.Golden_ne gives very little insights. He merely say "I don't like this", "I feel like" without saying why. There is a more recent example: + Show Spoiler + i dont hold any undergraduate degree, i'm hardly a scholar. I can actually come out with a better answer for youFirst day: HeavonEarth dies with the minimum 6 of 6 votes. Roflwaffle being one of them. If they could mafia would have saved him and forced a mislynch. So i think that 2 mafia WOULD NOT have voted for Heavonearth first day. It just doesnt pay to have him lynched. A NL would have benefited them so much more. So under that reasoning its my opinion that any of these people had a likely mafia flip from this point: I missed this.
alan113 proposes that we lynch anyone who is friendly.
On day 1, townie has 0 clue. Being friendly shows that you are not concerned about a person's alignment, that would fit a scum's PoV.
I looked at the HeavonEarth's post that have a link to one of Gold's game's filter as town. He is wrongly accused yet he replied calmly. This makes me curious: when Austinmcc questioned Gold, Gold seems slightly annoyed. Gold is obviously annoyed at my questions. I see quite a contrasting personality.
Seems like HeavonEarth's went so far to do a Gold analysis. I counted out Gold in my last last post because of this, then it strikes me: It feels like Gold is the only person HeavonEarth cares about, so I don't count out a bus.
Also, Gold, I find your analysis interesting and opened me up to a different perspective. I am waiting for more people to comment on my case on you.
Also, trackd00r, who is your FoS and what do you think of Gold?
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@s0Lstice
+ Show Spoiler +On June 17 2012 02:42 s0Lstice wrote:
Nice shooting there tex!
Alright, check this out. I have a plan
We are in pretty good shape with only 1 scum left. Let's assume for a moment that from here on out we only miss-lynch. How many would it take before we lose?
Right now: 8 town, 1 scum
After Day 2 lynch: 7 town, 1 scum
After Night 2 kill: 6 town, 1 scum
After Day 3 lynch: 5 town, 1 scum
After Night 3 kill: 4 town, 1 scum
After Day 4 lynch: 3 town, 1 scum
After Night 4 kill: 2 town, 1 scum
After Day 5 lynch: 1 town, 1 scum (scum victory)
By my count, that gives us 3 miss-lynches to play with out of the 4 lynches remaining., assuming we don't get any medic protects.
All we have to do is make a list to lynch down. Take the four most likely candidates and lynch them one-by-one.
Here is my proposed list:
1. suki
2. O.Golden_ne
3. Unforgiven_ve
4. trackd00r
In my estimation, there is only one other candidate that might go on this list, and that's Crossfire99.
I don't put Crossfire99 on this list because he was the first to go after roflewaffles55 following HeavOnEarth's flip. I find it very unlikely that scum would do this.
Does anybody see any chance that the remaining scum isn't on that list? We have enough lynches to kill them all, and therefore I think this plan pretty much guarantees victory for town.
Everyone please tell me what you think.
I think this is a pretty good idea, but I prefer this queue.
1. s0Lstice
2. O.Golden_ne
3. trackd00r
4. -undecided yet-
I had a town read on you, but your suggestion flashed a big BIG WARNING sign.
Don't take me wrong, I think it is normal for a townie to suggest this, but this has no guarantee.
This is my scenario:
Assuming s0Lstice is scum
In this scenario, it is scum's guaranteed win.
Advantage/Disadvantage from SCUM's POV
+Scum guaranteed win
+After town agreed upon a fixed lynch target, it halts all discussions.
+I foresee chaos when villagers begin to doubt on the lynch targets, closer and closer to the end.
-Bussing early puts scum in a very bad position no matter how you look at it, but this is what he cooked up all the while, and if he managed to pull it off, this is a confirmed scum win.
-It will take 15 long days for the game to end, assuming host will not allow a change in day/night time.
The short answer is I am not a big fan of the plan. If I ever agree to go with this, s0Lsitce has to go first for a fail safe. After that, we will have to narrow down to 3 scummiest player. 3 out of 7 (1 confirmed) by random chance, a little less than 50% (42.86%), not really bad since we can also rely on town/scum reads.
Given my condition that you must die to proof your innocent, do you, s0Lstice, still want to proceed with the plan?
Others: I want to hear your opinion on this. Think about my doubts on the plan and my condition, but the priority is still to get your 3rd scum read. It is late over here, so I will go through s0Lstice's filter again tomorrow morning. My comfortable lynch targets for today is O.Golden_ne and trackd00r
See you guys.
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@Miltonkram
Other than that my only suggestion would be to make sure our list is flexible. If the potential scum is outside of that list, they would of course give you the green light on this plan. Make sure that this list doesn't destroy our ability to effectively pressure and hunt scum. Keep other players on your radar. Keep up pressure on players.
This nullify the existence of this plan. With or without this plan, we will always have a list of most scummy to least scummy player.
Also, take a look at my condition. I suggest everyone read through my view on s0Lstice's case. Its in my previous post. Unless s0Lstice agrees to sacrifice himself, this is a no go for me.
@s0Lstice
I am eager to see your answer: Will you proceed with the plan if you were to be the first to go? I will expect an explanation.
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@s0Lstice
Sorry I skipped through your answer
I sensed this could be possibly a last ditch effort to get a scum win. I got a town read on you, does not mean you are a confirmed townie. In fact, there is no way to confirm. I don't want to draw another case based on speculations, but lets be real. There is no guarantee that you are town, and if you are not, it became a guaranteed scum win.
I sincerely would not feel bad if you flip green, no offence here, but I play to win, and that's the only way to guarantee a "guaranteed town win". If anything, I'd want to make sure you win with me.
Right now, this plan the way you proposed, it only guarantees your victory, be it town or not. Of course, if you are town, I don't really mind  BUT, let me repeat again, there is no guarantee, until you true colors are shown.
Also, both O.Golden_ne and trackd00r must be in the list, which was not in your revised order.
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It is 5:00 am here, and is supposed to wake up 3 hours later for a meeting.
@s0Lstice
I hope you can get into my head by now. Assuming sciberbia, another player that I+ Show Spoiler + have a strong town read, came out with this idea, what will you feel? Town reads are town reads, but it does not mean it is 100%. Unlike my position now, assuming no counter claim, I am a cold hard 100% town.
Also, upon re-analysing, I don't see why we shouldn't make a list of scummy players, but why fix it? You mentioned we have 3 mislynch, that gives town a big advantage right now, but what have your suggestion improved town's advantage?
Upon rethinking into your plan, it feels like it is what we are supposed to do in normal circumstances, but you suggested no more discussion after we fix it. Fix it or not, we have 3 mislynch regardless.
Is it me, or I am sensing a scum slip?.
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@sciberbia
I see, thanks for your input. I scrapped the case I was writing going after s0Lsice, but I am no longer confident with my town read on him.
I see you were in past game with s0Lsice, did he usually make logical flaws when he is town? He made a few in this game: vigil not Nking obvious lynch target, the "plan" he came up with.
I hope to see your read on who is the 3rd scum.
I am still debating over this, but my brain is not functioning well at this hour. Should we get everyone to claim? I want to see your thoughts.
@s0Lsice
I did not FoS you merely on your post. There are other tells, for instance: suki defended your case against her. I defended her. I am not sure if you replied, but I did not read it if there is one. If you did not. you still insisted suki is suspicious even without a good reason.
@Everyone else
I really got to go to bed now. Do not do an analysis on s0Lsice's plan for now. Focus on getting a 2nd day lynch target. Don't be afraid to list down multiple suspect even when there is only one left, of course, don't list down everyone of course, and please provide a reason.
Signing out.
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@s0Lsice
I see I misunderstood your "plan", so you were just listing down people to lynch, and say we are lynching these people over the 4 days, forcing a reaction from them. We are officially dropping this right now.
I would like to ask for your FoS, but I see you have strong opinions on suki. Please post your case on suki, or direct me to your response to her defence/my defence. I couldn't see suki as scum. I see her sudden change of stance from defending me against a scum and attacking me upon looking at my "conspiracy theory" to be an instinctive solo action. I don't see a connection between her and rolf, and her backing off me was pretty reasonable. Her changing votes to HeaveonEarth was also reasonable, given that she was focusing on me most of the day.
Good hunting.
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Hey all. I know being a confirmed town, it is bad to say this. This is useless information, so I am going to put it in a spoiler.
+ Show Spoiler +I somewhat lost confidence in my scum hunting abilities. This is partially due to the people that I regard has high analysis skill pushing the lynch on suki, while I have a town read on her. You can read my defence for her. The other thing is, I did not thoroughly consider s0Lstice's conditions when he proposed his plan. I failed to see the townie's motive and spent my time going through his filter, attacking him and sabotaged his plan. I don't know if he truly understand my doubts against him, but the response from him suggesting no, and I feel like a scum s0Lstice would easily get what I said and start defending.
Regardless
@Suki
My view on suki remain unchanged, I went through s0Lstice's and defended for her. However, if you missed my spoiler, with 3 strong analysis pushing a lynch on her, I think I could be wrong. I hope they consider her defence, and mine. I am not willing to lynch suki. Unless it risks an NL, I will not put my vote on suki.
@O.Golden_ve
I went through one of his game's filter in his history as VT, and I notice he is similarly defending both sides when two people are tunnelling one another, stating they could be just two townies tunnelling each other. I find his friendliness is consistent in this game.
However, when I brought up a case against him here, he got mad. It contrast his last game. When a case was brought up to him, + Show Spoiler +that eventually got him lynched,
The first point directly debunk my main point in FoSing him: being too friendly. I will still keep an eye on him, but I think I got a better lynch target.
@trackd00r
I noticed in Day 1 he throws weak cases about. I mentioned in a post that he stretched my words following rolf's case against me. Suki posted a case on him, so please read that as if someone else as wrote it to avoid bias.
I intentionally asked trackd00r for Golden's case. I was hoping he leaks scum tales. Assuming scum trackd00r, one of the reason to kill austin, is to push austin's agenda for lynching Golden day 2, and it is consistent with his day 1 vote. He did not mention any of this, but he is aware that town is having high morales and scums are probably shitting themselves right now I am not sure if this is anything of significant, but I could be a far sketched scum slip.
trackd00r votes O.Golden_ve, like HeaveonEarth did. Golden pointed this out and I originally thought this is way too obvious to be a scum tale, but the possibility is there.
I changed my mind on Golden's case. I will reserve judgement until trackd00r flips town, that also means I am going to push a lynch on trackd00r.
EDIT: While writing trackd00r's case, I refreshed and saw s0Lstice's case. This gives me my confidence back. Anyone wants to build a case on me for bandwagonning?
##vote: trackd00r
@sciberbia
I don't know if I am allowed to tell the time, but here is some of my "inner monologue" during the night.
I have a strong scum read on rolfwaffles55, and is pretty convinced he is scum. I was debating against myself if I should shoot him right away. There is no clear scum #3. I originally wanted to let him live, hoping that he will slip and reveal his partner.
However, I later debates that it is not guaranteed for rolf to slip his partner, he probably will lurk through both days, and if I don't take the shot now, we will waste one whole day cycle just to get him lynched, especially he is on the top of the most wanted list. Also, I don't know if dead scum is allowed to contribute in the scum chat, but leaving the last scum with no allies destroys his morale.
I took the shot as soon as I I am aware that I might break the rule. The rule says do not compare PM time. If you want to know when I made my mind to shoot, it was right before when I post the "vig should just shoot rolfwaffle55"
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EDIT:
@sciberbia
I think I am too far fetched from your original intention for asking about my lynch time, but I you can tell I switched to focusing on getting a 3rd scum in the middle of the night phase, and I posted my pm long before.
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EDIT2:
@sciberbia
I think I am too far fetched from your original intention for asking about my lynch time, but I you can tell I switched to focusing on getting a 3rd scum in the middle of the night phase, and I posted my pm long before host's blue text.
The confidence is making me way more careless :S
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@Golden
We already got two scums and by right townies should be very comfortable. I am not going to build a case on you now to keep the focus on trackd00r, he looked scummier to me, and if he turn red, I'd say it's a nice clean town victory.
I casted my votes on trackd00r, and I am afraid I won't be around close to lynch time. Do not NL under any circumstances. It's Monday morning here (1:20 am) so I need to sleep now, cheers.
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I seriously thought we nailed it with trackd00r, especially when he did not defend himself.
I want to start with a few questions for the mods
When a scum is dead, is he/she still allowed to contribute in the scum chat?
I read the answer regarding scum RB and killing. If there are 3 scums with killing ability, are they allowed to kill 3 person (1 person each) provided they don't use their role's special ability?
@Blue Night Actions
I don't know if we should discuss blue night actions now, but given that I already am a confirmed one-shot vigilante that has already used up his shot, here are my suggestions:
Cop:
I know it is obvious I am town, but if you aren't convinced I am Vig, there is no reason real vig don't counter claim, so use it on someone else. I think the priority comes down to this. Use it on the person you FoS most. If you can't come out with one, use it on a lurker, since they are really hard to read. However, if I am cop, I would have picked s0Lstice. He reads town, but the suggestion really throws me off. I really want to know if I can really trust such an influential player, especially when he proposed his plan.
Medic:
Don't use it on me. I am basically a VT now. Use it to save other potential blues. If I were you I will use it on my most comfortable town read, and if there is a tie, I will go for the most influential and analytic one.
Jailer:
Go for your main FoS. If there is a kill, he is certainly clean. If there is no kill, it could be: The person you jailed is scum. Medic saved victim. Scum No kill <---- (unlikely)
If scums are jailed, I assume they can't kill that night, no?
Vigilante:
I don't know if there is another one out there, but if there is, shoot only you are certain. Don't hide even if you kill an innocent, just out it so we can identify another 100% clear. Also, don't shoot me.
If multiple vigs went for the same target, do they all lose their bullets?
Veteran:
If there is a second one, claim in Day 3 if you are hit.
@O.Golden_ne
Now that trackd00r flipped town, you are my next FoS as stated in my day 2 post. I think given our current situation, it is okay to be a little depressed. Can you explain why this game made you so anxious as you stated in day 2? I think town was in pretty good shape in day 2 and if anything, it caused me to get careless. If you are town just answer truthfully, don't lie just because you think the truth is less convincing.
Give your last day's post, your FoS is Crossfire now. This is due to the vote thing, but Crossfire did not vote because he was involved in an accident and is unable to return to vote, so that clears him off your radar. Who is your main FoS currently?
@Suki
Many people has mentioned suki. I think she is the current "most wanted" person. I will reserve my judgement until I re-examine her again.
Day 3 stuffs that is currently not important and shouldn't be the priority in current discussions:
Should we mass role claim in day 3? If PMs are allowed I would have asked for everyone to PM their roles in day 2 already. I want to know if anyone agrees/disagree.
I hope we all keep an open mind. As long as someone is not 100% confirmed, leave some rooms for doubts. And if that last scum wants to take me out, COME AT ME BRO.
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@suki
I wrote a post without writing my agenda first, I started a long time but later I saw crossfire's post. I did not intended to write anything against sciberbia even though I find him acting "weird", and only wanted to say "if sciberbia and s0Lstice lived through the end, be wary of them". After seeing crossfire's post, I decided to add on to what I find sciberbia weird.
About day 2
Even before sciberbia did not point out rolfwaffles, I am already debating with myself if I should shoot him, and I consulted my mentors if I should just shoot someone I am convinced is scum, or just spare him and see if he leaks the 3rd scum. I was quite sure rolfwaffle is scum reading his scum slip post, and that happens just as I was reading a mafia guide on how to find scum slips, and the example provided in that guide is strikingly similar to what rolfwaffle said. Given that, a scum scriberia, will probably pick that up and recognize rolfwaffle's slip cannot be savior, why not point it out himself? I can see why rolfwaffle did not post at all after his "yay mafia died" post. I assume he is told by a stronger player to stop posting in care he leaks anything else.
I will try to finish my post.
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EBWOP:
I meant to say night 1, not day 2.
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@s0Lstice
On June 18 2012 13:00 s0Lstice wrote:
Suki, you are saying then that HeavOnEarth, confirmed scum, began bussing his teammate in his very first post, and spent his entire time in this game trying to get his teammate lynched.
Please explain this.
I am the one who said that. I noticed how HeavonEarth started his post by writing a case on O.Golden_ve. He went so far to post a link to Golden's filter from another game. That is when Golden posted only once. HeavonEarth's first post seemed confident that Golden is mafia. Why would a Godfather do that? I am betting my money that if he lead a successful lynch on Golden, he would have gain tremendous amount of trust, and he cops, if they exist, will get a false read by checking him.
He did not attempt to call out any other player. He bandwagoned on Crossfire when austin called him out. He then went back to voting Gold without a reason. I thought trackd00r has a high chance to flip scum since he also voted on Golden D1 based on my reasoning, even though it seems too obvious to me, but I was wrong of course.
I analysed rolf's filter, and there is one player that was never ever mentioned in his posts, not even in the content of his direct quotes: O.Golden_ve. In his post [spoiler]that he slipped hard, about how "dangerous" is it to not lynch someone, he soft defended HeavonEarth. While what I am going to say may seem sketchy, he had suki in it, but he did not mention Golden_ve. He also said that we can't get anything out of HeavonEarth's posts even if he flips mafia, which tickles my curiosity. He forgotten Heavon's accusation on Gold.
It also seems like everyone thinks newbie mafias are not likely to conduct a bus, I beg to defer. That is like saying bronze/silver/gold players are less likely to cheese in a SC2 game. I don't think even a highly sophisticated player wants to bus both of his player in day 1 given the time needed to win. The closer to the end the worse he gets, unless he can kill role checking blues. Each day pass means at lease one more conformed townie (that died)
I understand how people came out with suki as the most possibly scum by the process of elimination. I think many people rule Golden out because he was tunneled by Heavon. If it came to the conclusion that scum has bussed, I would like you all the consider Golden as a potential lynch.
Also, s0Lsdice, in your argument for the process of elimination, you did not do an analysis on Suki. You simply pushed her to the end of the list, gave town reads on everyone before her, and say there's no one else. I don't like that. I know I am protecting suki hard, and if she really flips scum I will look like a total idiot, but I hope we play fair here.
Arguments for O.Golden_ve
Mafia Golden
-Golden's aggressive towards those that accuse him, unlike him in another game where he is town
-Golden's anxious in day 2 after 2 scums has died
Townie Golden
-His friendliness is consistent with his other game, other than the aggressive defense
-When I read HeavonEarth's filter, it feels like the Godfather genuinely want to push for a mislynch.
-He did contributed in bringing out ideas. His friendliness is very muck alike with my "neutral" policy. I treated everyone as potential scum and he treated everyone as potential town.
-The first 2 scums were kind of new and made very obvious mistakes, I don't think mods will assign all mafia slots to 3 weaker players. + Show Spoiler +sorry rolfwaffle, HeavonEarth and Golden. I put myself in this category so I too)
Other traits:
-HeavonEarth paid most attention to him. He flips Godfather.
-Rolfwaffle paid absolutely no attention to him. He flips goon.
-Golden talked about the lynch votes, and suggested trackd00r/Crossfire should be lynched because they did not vote for Heavon. This could be seen as defensive scum move since it rules him out of the lynch targets, but I don't think a scum Golden will be bold enough to lead a wrong lynch.
@Crossfire
I refreshed and saw Crossfire's post. I thought sciberbia acted weird at times (with different reasons) but I dismissed it because I see the "townie-ness" of sciberbia. I thought my points are going to be insignificant especially when I usually got really little supporting points, so I didn't talk about it, and I want to avoid creating too many cases and cause a confusion. I did not post a summary but I meant to say be weary of him if Golden and Suki did not flip mafia, and that he don't die.
When s0Lsdice talked about his plan, one thing comes to mind: what if the players that I have a strong town read turns out to be scum? I thought scum s0Lsdice will benefit the most from a fixed lynch, but it seems like he did not get what I wanted to say so I don't think s0Lsdice is mafia. His intention is good.
Scriberbia said he did not like the fixed lynching. I asked for Scirberbia's opinion if s0Lsdice is scum, and he simply say this:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 17 2012 06:30 sciberbia wrote:
@s0Lstice, alan
It is unlikely, but there could potentially be two real vigilantes. I only realized this last night. So if anybody else wants to claim vigi, they should do so right now.
about the plan
I think we are all making a big deal out of nothing here. Any reasonable actions from this point lead us to 90+% town win. s0Lstice made a list of the 4 people most likely to be mafia (in his opinion), and proposed that we lynch all of them. That's pretty reasonable. But it kind of goes without saying that we will lynch the most scummy people. So the "plan" isn't really deviation from what we would do anyway. So I don't think it matters much whether we "agree" on the plan or not.
I don't think all this talk about the plan is very productive. Practically, I think it's hard enough to agree on one person to lynch, let alone four. And it's all subject to change anyway with information from night actions. So I suggest we just stop talking about the plan. Anyway, I'm just going through filters and making reads.
@alan
I highly doubt s0Lstice is mafia..
My first impression is scriberbia trusted s0Lsitce a lot, but why? There is no reasoning to back up to, but I thought maybe I think too much, or there is a certain explanation to that trust.
Also, trackd00r seems to agree with me in day 1.
s0lstice: Is it my idea or you already gained trust from Sciberbia?
I also don't like his sudden jump on Suki on day 2. It seems like he has zero opinion on suki, and then suddenly jumped the gun and came out with suki. When I asked for a third target yesterday, he did not out with any.
I really dislike the Milton case. Being unsure of the situation is typical townie strait. In day 2 I am unsure of Gold and trackd00r, so I jumped back and forth, but because I am a confirmed blue, I wasn't targeted for a lynch. I also don't like how he jumped the gun and think only good players can conduct this bus. I find O.Golden scummy and it is plausible that he is involved in the bus, but sciberbia does not see any of that.
It also seems like sciberbia is constantly trying to remind everyone he is as clueless as everyone else:
-He stated that he wanted to know why austin was the target
-He asked about 3 Nks. I find this silly since he played a few games already so he should have known the rules.
I think crossfire did a good job with analyzing scribebia, I want to see the response from scribebia himself.
Summary
I think Suki is on the death toll tomorrow. I still think she is town regardless what was posted, but I will vote for her if it risks a no lynch. Remember town, 3 more mislynch for us, so never ever NL. Suki, if you are blue, please post your actions tomorrow if you can't convince them to put the votes off you. Please do so as soon as possible because not many people are around to make the switch.
I also think I am going to die tonight. I rule out controversial players and think its either me, s0ldice or Crossfire biting the bullet this time.
I don't know why suddenly everyone is suspecting each other, but this is what the mafia wants exactly. There are 7 townies and 1 scum. It is very likely anyone can be town, but it also means it is easier for scums to hide and create chaos. I think the pattern identified by cross on scibebria is very sound and fits in a well played mafia motivation.
Things that I wanted to share before but did not out with it because of fearing scums will take advantage of this, but just in case I die:
*There is a high possibility for cops to exist, although it is not 100%. Think about why Godfather exist.
Question:
Do people get a message when they are role blocked even they have no roles?
*Please out with the role block tomorrow if any.
Come to think of it, did scibebria mentioned outing rb when you were role blocked during 1st night? This seems like a day 2 action for townie, but a night action for scum
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@s0Lstice
About Golden's case, if you read correctly, I actually have more point supporting him rather than against him. About the motivation behind a bus, please do remember that this is a newbie game. It is even harder to read
Sorry that I didn't mention my above post was regarding after Suki is lynched and flipped town, I know this is a bit far fetched, but I am just thinking scums might hit me.. or will they? I think the general consent is to lynch suki.
Your case against suki in night 1
She defended herself and I defended her, but no one even care to comment on them. When I asked for one, you simply said "that has not changed my mind, sorry". Even so, I am all for lynching suki if everyone thinks she is scum. No reason to be a straw man here and cause more chaos. Given at this point of time, we can safely do a mislynch, so do lynch her to either proof her innocent, or win the game and embarrass me for my silliness.
Seeing that you didn't read Cross's case against Sciberbia, I am not surprised you find my case weak. I did not include what Crossfire said because I don't want to repeat after him, but do read his case. I have an uneasy feeling when you came out with your plan. I was comfortable with my town reads: You, sciberbia, crossfire, MJ and suki. Except for the last one, I think everyone generally feels this way. However, when you mentioned about a fixed list, I keeps me thinking. What if my reads are wrong? What if the one that appeared most honest and pro-town to us turns out to be a scum? There is no 100% sure. I know, there is strong reasons for why sciberbia is not scum, but it is all based on words, and no guarantee. I do comment that if sciberbia is scum, he is seeing to win this game 15 days later.
What I want to say is, yes, everyone wants to lynch scum, and the best outcome is for her to spill red, even if it makes me hit my head thinking how stupid I was, I prefer that. However, what if she don't? I suggest you all re-evaluate everyone from that point onward. I don't like sciberbia's case on miltonkram. I read it beforecrossfire's case on him, but as soon as I read his case against milton, I kept thinking that he is actually scummier.
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EPT
