Newbie Mini XV

I absolutely love playing mafia irl, and I recently played my first forum game: Newbie Mini XIV. I enjoyed the game, and I'm looking forward to playing again with Golden, s0sltice, and Miltonkram. I encourage you all to skim our filters from that game so you have a basis for comparison. Only Miltonkram was mafia.

Mainly because I love playing so much, I will consistently be checking and reading the thread and I'll probably be one of the more active posters. I'll maintain my own list of scumreads and make public cases against my top targets. I'll also help in any way I can to organize lynches when deadlines roll around.

1) make reading the thread a priority
2) periodically post your opinions and contribute to the discussion
3) try really hard to be online in the hours before a deadline. We need to organize majority lynches and it's not easy if a lot of people are offline.

Setup A: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 1 cop, 1 medic, 7 VT's
Setup B: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 9 VT's
Setup C: 3 goons, 1 medic, 8 VT's
Setup D: 3 goons, 1 cop, 8 VT's

I think that there is actually a strong case for not lynching on day 1 in this game. In the setups without a medic, namely B and D, I am pretty sure that not lynching on day 1 is strictly optimal. I think that lynch vs NL is a wash for setup C, and I'm undecided about setup A - that one's pretty complicated.

If anybody would like to hear more of my reasoning, just ask and I'll be happy to provide.

Fun fact: Depending on how wisely we spend our NL, we have between 13% and 17% chance of winning setup B assuming random lynches. So we need some really solid scumreads regardless of how strategically we play.

The most important thing for us to do is find scum. However, it seems foolish to scumhunt before the majority of players have even looked at the thread. So I think our biggest goal for the first 12 hours or so is to generate discussion. Then, we turn our attention to scumhunting. Here are two things that everyone can comment on:

1) Lynch or NL?
2) Should we lynch inactive players or let them get replaced?

Will all inactive players be replaced or is there a possibility that they just die? If a blue inactive player is modkilled, will their role be transferred to someone else? What if they are mafia?

D1: 12 remaining lynch #1
D2: 10 remaining lynch #2
D3: 8 remaining lynch #3
D4: 6 remaining lynch #4
D5: 4 remaining NL
D6: 3 remaining lynch #5

D1: 12 remaining NL
D2: 11 remaining lynch #1
D3: 9 remaining lynch #2
D4: 7 remaining lynch #3
D5: 5 remaining lynch #4
D6: 3 remaining lynch #5

My logic does NOT depend on us mislynching in any way, shape, or form. I'm just saying we get 5 lynches either way, and that by NL'ing D1 we get the most information possible prior to each lynch. It's just math.


On the contrary, it is very likely when we start with an even number of players. If we get down to 4 (very likely if we never NL), we should certainly NL. I think we can all agree on that.


This applies to heist's criticism too.

A day 1 NL gives us MORE information to work off for our first lynch. Think about it. If we lynch day 1, we have 48 hours worth of discussion to go on for our first lynch. If we NL day 1, we have 120 hours of discussion and a round of night actions to consider for our first lynch. And we end up with 5 lynches either way: it doesn't cost us a lynch (assuming no medic saves).

I agree with heist that the results of lynches factor into future lynches. But this is irrelevant to the issue of a day 1 NL. We still have 5 lynches. We can still consider the results of a previous lynch when we are making our second lynch etc. I feel like I'm just repeating myself now.



I think your accusation of me is rather hasty. My discussion does have the best interests of town at heart. The point of the discussion was two-fold
1) Try to convince you guys of a superior line of play
2) Give people something to talk about in their first posts

While I was not wildly successful in my first goal, you cannot deny that I have succeeded in the second. If you look at the thread since the daypost, the lynch vs nolynch question has certainly gotten people posting. We need posts to generate scumreads. We need scumreads to lynch scum, which is the primary goal here.

I'm providing my opinions of cattivik for two reasons:
1) He has been accused by enough people now (heist, golden, eishi_ki, suki, miltonkram) that he is in danger of being lynched today
2) heist explicitly asked for my opinion on cattivik

I think Cattivik is most likely townie

The fishiest thing about him seems to be his insistance that I am a 'confirmed townie'. Let's go through the scenarios here from your guys' persperctive. What seems most likely?
1) Cattivik is mafia. I am town. He goes way out of his way to defend me to gain an ally.
2) Cattivik is mafia. I am mafia. He defends me to the death.
3) Cattivik is town. I am town/mafia. He has a strong town-read on me and isn't afraid to share it.

Now I know for a fact that I am town, so I can rule out scenario 2. But I think even you guys should be able to conclude that scenario 3 is most likely. Both scenarios 1 & 2 seem like really bizarre, risky mafia play. Mafia can suck up to active townies and/or defend fellow mafia without being so blatantly obvious about it. Scenario 3 seems like typical brazen townie play. He is also very agressive and seems confident. Townie characteristics.

One last thing in his favor: Judging from his early posts I didn't get the feeling that he really understood my NL logic. If he were a mafia defending a townie, I think he'd at least want to have a solid grasp on what I was saying.

Now I'm not going to say he's a 'confirmed townie' but I think he is most likely town, and I would not vote for him given current evidence.

On a related topic, unless you think someone is in danger of being mislynched, please try to avoid talking about how townie you think they are. If we all agree player X is town, and we are right, we just gave mafia a really easy kill for the night.

One last thing. Did Cattivik really just change his name to Vivax? Seriously?

Xalatos, s0sltice, golden, suki, and miltonkram(?) all find him suspicious. I'm not sold on the case against him. He has promised a defense and I don't want to do all his defending for him so I will try to be brief.

Firstly, I disagree with Xalatos and heist that he only made safe generalizations in his first few posts. I see where you are coming from because he hasn't actually made any reads yet, but he did say a couple of odd things that have earned him some flak, such as his suggestion not to use past games as a guide and his idea about a 'town leader'.

His triple post within the span of 14 minutes caught my attention. I think that scum generally take longer to construct posts for several reasons: being nervous about making a slip, making sure it sounds townie, running it by their scumbuddies, etc. Especially on his first posts of the game. Obvioulsy not solid evidence, but I think it's in his favor.

This is a newbie game. Just because you don't think he's helping town doesn't mean that he doesn't think he's helping town... Hope that made sense.

As long as he can convince me that HE thinks that he's helping town, I see no reason why he should be mafia. I'll be interested to hear his defense.

As of right now, I consider him more suspicious than Cattivik, but I don't see any really good evidence that he is mafia.

Here are his first two posts in which he ponders Miltonkram's vote on me. I believe suki that he didn't know the rules about changing votes, but I still find this post a bit off.

First of all, his logic doesn't make sense to me. He recognizes the vote as confusing and thinks the reasoning behind it 'flimsy'. So far so good. He seems to be suggesting that Miltonkram might be mafia.

But then he analyzes the possible outcomes of the vote from the perspective that Miltonkram is town. Notice that suki considers the scenario that I am mafia. At that point in the game, it looked pretty damn unlikely that me and Milton were both mafia. So why is suki analyzing what a townie Miltonkram stands to gain from that vote? What's the point of that analysis?

Then he says that he's leaning toward Miltonkram being town. Makes his previous analysis even more pointless. He also pays me a nice compliment, which is definitely something a mafia might do: try to ally with the active posters.

Finally, I can think of one really good explanation as to why he realized his mistake: He might have gone back to the mafia QT where his scumbuddies set him straight. Just a theory. But I'd like to hear suki explain how he realized that he had misinterpreted the rules.

In Summary
his first post contains some confusing, pointless analysis where he seems to be putting suspcion on Miltonkram, but then backs off of it

There's a lot to talk about here, and in my opinion, a lot of evidence against suki. I'll try to break it down.

+ Show Spoiler +

OK so before he said he was leaning toward Miltonkram being town. s0lstice stated he was suspicious of Miltonkram. Now suki piles on some suspicion, but is so damn wishy/washy about it. He describes Milton's response as "lackluster" and his actions as "interesting". Then he concludes by saying "I'm keeping my eye on you." All this seems scummy to me. He changes his mind about Milton, bandwaggoning with s0sltice, and is quite noncomittal about it.

+ Show Spoiler +

This also seems like scummy analysis. He piles suspicion on Eishi_Ki, but then says he doesn't think eishi_ki is scum. Again, what is the point of posting this analysis? It seems to me like he's just trying to make it look like he's doing analysis, without actually accusing anybody.

Also, remember how he complimented me on my posts before? Well here he is sucking up to Xatalos, who is another active poster and was directing a lot of discussion.

+ Show Spoiler +

He hasn't even mentioned unforgiven before, but now he jumps on the bandwaggon, simply agreeing with everyone else who thought Unforgiven was suspicious. Suki, you said you'd be willing to expand your thoughts on Unforgiven. I'd appreciate it if you did.

+ Show Spoiler +

Not the most damning statement, but certainly doesn't convince me he's town. He's trying to seem like a helpful noobie townie who is willing to go along with popular opinion and lynch lurkers. Take that for what it's worth.

+ Show Spoiler +
Really bandwaggony here. Heist, eishi_ki, and golden had all already accused cattivik. Suki basically just repeats their reasons and adds cattivik to his 'scum list'.

I don't think that this is necessarily scummy, but as you will see later, he becomes quite wishy/washy about Cattivik.

+ Show Spoiler +


States some pretty fluffy, non-controversial stuff. Doesn't take a hard stance on who we should lynch.

+ Show Spoiler +

s0sltice addresses cattivik's accusers and defends cattivik against them. Now look how suki tries not to take a stance. He's "inclined to agree" with s0sltice. Whereas just a minute ago Cattivik was on his 'scum list', now he "supposes that both sides of the argument seem pretty petty". But he's "not so sure that you can say Cattivik's actions stricly read town". This is about as wishy/wasy as it gets. Scummy behavior.

- I woke up about 5 hours before the deadline.
- I spent about 2 hours reading the thread and making some posts.
- I was AFK for about two hours.
- I returned with less than an hour left. I made a post and followed the thread until the deadline.

By nature, I'm not aggressive, emotional, or overly sure of myself, so I may not have been as "in the spotlight" as other players such as Vivax, Ange, Unforgiven. But, I think I contributed all my relevant opinions to the discussion and tried to steer us on the right track. Not sure what else you really wanted from me.

Here are my top 2 reads:
I find heist scummy
I find golden/shiaopi suspicious

I still think Cattivik is probably townie

If I'm alive tomorrow, I'll be more than happy to expand on these.
If I'm dead tomorrow, I request that you put at least some weight on my reads, but don't live and die by them.

@Town
If, at any point in the game, you are saved by a medic (you will be notified via PM), it makes most sense to just claim this instantly. The mafia already know this (because their target isn't dead), so you might as well just give the town the same information. This confirms you as townie because it'd be a terrible idea to fakeclaim this as mafia.

@Cop
If we have a cop, you know for a fact that we have a medic. If you get a guilty check, you should try to get the mafia lynched without claiming. But if that doesn't work, just claim. You might want to claim before then if you think you are likely to be hit by mafia, just so you get medic protection. I think it also makes a lot of sense to claim once you have 2 safe checks that are still alive, but it's a judgement call. You might also consider coming out if we are about to mislynch a known townie.

1) not hit the same person that the medic chooses to save
2) hit blues
3) hit townies that everyone has a strong town-read on
4) hit good townies
5) hit townies that are on the right track

1) was not a likely medic save in my opinion
2) was not especially likely to be blue
3) I'd estimate him at #3 least likely to ever be lynched
4) I think s0lstice demonstrated he was a pretty good townie
5) We should look at his filter

Overall, I think s0lstice was a pretty smart hit and had good reason to die regardless of how good his reads were. So I don't want to put too much weight on them. However, it seems foolish not to at least look at his filter.

I don't think that these reads are that relevant because they were popular opinions
- He didn't want to lynch ange
- He pretty strongly read me as town
- He wasn't a big fan of unforgiven

Some of his more controversial reads:
1) His very strong accusation of heist
2) He defended cattivik quite strongly
3) Was rather suspicious of miltonkram

You may call it WIFOM, but I feel that s0lstice wouldn't have died if too many of his reads were wrong. If you're willing to assume he was right on at least two of three, you can conclude that Cattivik is town. Now, this is no small assumption, but I think it's slight evidence in Cattivik's favor. It also makes me slightly more suspicious of miltonkram. It doesn't really change my opinion on heist because that one seems like pure WIFOM.

It's obviously nothing definitive, but I think we'll be able to make more sense of this kill once we see a few more flips, so don't forget about it.

Recall this part of my accusation of suki
+ Show Spoiler +

suki never did explain this post, made 9 minutes after his original:
+ Show Spoiler +

Well, suki turned out to be mafia, which makes my mafia QT theory seem a little less wild. What does this have to do with heist? His response, 4 minutes later:



So, not only do we know heist was online, but he even corrected suki in the thread. I feel like my mafia QT theory was pretty spot on. In case it's not clear, here is what I'm saying probably happened:

+ Show Spoiler +

Perhaps not conclusive by itself. But I'm pretty sure this is what happened given heist's later scummy behavior. See below.

Pay attention to the timestamps








In summary
- he is first "not completely convinced"
- now suki reads town to him
- now it looks like vivax is bussing suki
- now he's not very confident in a suki lynch
- he's much more convinced ange is town than suki
- he didn't think suki is mafia

the "not completely convinced" and the bussing comments scream scum to me.

Cattivik called Heist out on the bussing comment early in N1 and heist failed to address it in his defense. Xatalos also finds this scummy.

nothing whatsoever

I just picked up on this slip that I might not otherwise think much of. But on top of the already mounting evidence, it just makes too much sense.



Heist has "thought" Cattivik is mafia the whole game. The "crux" of heist's argument is that cattivik spends day 1 aggressively defending someone "who he can't possibly know for sure is town".

If Heist actually thinks Cattivik is mafia, then in Heist's brain, Cattivik does know who is townie and who isn't.

If on the other hand, Heist knows for a fact that Cattivik is town, Heist knows that Cattivik doesn't actually know for a fact that I'm townie.

I'm pretty sure that heist has been attacking cattivik for confusing townie play the entire time. Heist knows it's easy to attack a townie for confusing townie play - it happens all the time. So, in heist's brain, he is trying to convince everyone that Cattivik is bad townie. But here he slips in revealing that he doesn't actually think cattivik is mafia - just bad townie.

Not sure I explained this very well but I think it makes sense. Basically, I have a town-read on Cattivik and a scumread on Heist, and this little slip reinforces that notion. I'm actually interested to hear if anyone agrees with this analysis.

1. Yes I agree it's pure speculation. But mafia is all about speculation. I speculated that suki was corrected by a fellow mafia in the mafia QT. This seems rather likely to me now, especially considering that suki didn't acknowledge my question. You seem to be a likely candidate for the person that corrected him, given that you were online at the time, and posting in the thread 4 minutes later. So, this is some circumstantial evidence for you being mafia.

2. To me, "not completely convinced" by an argument says that you think there is some credence to it, but you're not completely sure. Otherwise you would just say "not convinced" or even say it's a bad argument. Saying "not completely convinced" is the sort of wishy/washy thing typical of scum players trying to defend their buddies.

The standard definition of bussing is a mafia accusing another mafia. So by saying that you think cattivik is bussing suki, you were saying that you thought both were scum. I suppose it's possible that you actually don't know the definition, but this has to be counted as evidence against you.

3. Scum, especially newbie scum, tend not to address their scumbuddies as much as would be natural. It's further (admittedly not the best) evidence against you. I understand it's frustrating that you can't actually say anything to explain his lack of posts concerning you, but this doesn't mean it's not evidence.

4. In reference to Vivax, you said that I am "someone who he can't possibly know is town." If Vivax were mafia, he would know that I am town. So you inadvertently implied that Vivax is townie. I admit it's a bit nit-picky but I could see why a mafia heist would likely make that mistake. Of course, it is possible that a town heist would also make that mistake, but it's just another piece of evidence, not the entire basis of my argument. I probably did not explain this point very well and I'm interested to see if anyone agrees with me on it.

I highlighted this in my last post. Whereas Xatalos and (to a lesser extent) Vivax took a consistent stance in their defense of suki, heist was hesitant to committ to defending suki, and then claims that vivax is bussing suki.

Notice how he is kind of all over the place
1) "I am not completely convinced about suki"
2) "Suki reads town to me"
3) "Now it just looks like you (Vivax) are bussing (Suki)"
4) "Not very confident in a suki lynch"
5) "I don't think suki is mafia"

I have no problem with comments 2 or 5. They are consistent and say that heist has a town read on suki. But comments 1 and 4 are scummy to me. He's trying to dissuade us from voting suki, but is vague about his opinion with the modifiers on "convinced" and "confident". And comment 3 is implying that heist thinks suki has a good chance of being mafia.

suki was the only person heist was actually defensive of leading up to the lynch:
vivax: heist accuses strongly and threatens to vote. Doesn't because he realizes a lynch on vivax isn't going to happen
superouman: heist tries to raise suspicion on superouman and votes him
unforgiven: jumps on unforgiven about an hour and a half before the deadline and pushes to get him lynched
ange777: now heist didn't actually accuse ange, but he didn't really try to convince people not to vote her. He doesn't actually defend her until an hour before the deadline, when it was obvious she was not going to be lynched. While true that he didn't jump on the bandwaggon, this is probably just because he was hoping she'd get lynched without his support, making him look more townie. One known scum (suki) already jumped on her bandwaggon.

I'm willing to excuse a bad read on suki, but not if suki is the only person he's defensive of. Townies should have some town-reads that they are willing to fight for.

Compare this to some people I think are town.

Personally, I was defensive of cattivik, unforgiven, and superouman. I also played a part in slowing the bandwagon on ange.

Ange was at first defensive on unforgiven, then FOS'd him. She also wasn't a fan of vivax, but she did defend superouman and herself.

Xatalos made a bad read on suki, but he was at least willing to defend other players that he thought were town. He retracted his suspicions on unforgiven, only later reverting to unforgiven when it was clear that it was between unforgiven and suki. He was also slightly defensive of superouman and was willing to back off ange.

Heist's scumhunting is what I'd expect mafia "scumhunting" to look like.

It's usually easiest for mafia to attack players that make controversial/confusing townie plays. Heist did this with gusto thrice - on Vivax, superouman., and unforgiven Pretty easy people to attack and indeed were all popular objects of criticism. Heist harped on superouman's wtf-vote twice. It's something very easy to be critical of, but I think most of us read this as disinterested townie - not mafia.

Even on these three, he doesn't commit to attacking them. In his first post on Vivax, he calls Vivax's post "borderline scummy". He also says superouman is "rapidly rising in his suspicions." And early on, he was "not really convinced on unforgiven".

This talk on unforgiven is especially suspicious
+ Show Spoiler +

He basically says that a good argument could be made for Unforgiven being scummy, but doesn't committ himself to it.

Again, this is all what I'd expect from a mafia trying to "scumhunt".

What really sucks for mafia? When active townies begin to trust each other. Mafia would like to prevent active townies from being trusted by everyone. Suki and heist both harped on how I couldn't be a confirmed townie.

Most people took the following stance: "I'm pretty sure sciberbia is town. Still, he's not a confirmed townie."

Heist only had a "mostly town" reading of me, and spent a lot of time detailing how I could be a mafia and shouldn't be a "confirmed townie". He even suggested the possibility that both me and cattivik were mafia. Maybe I'm biased, but it seems to me that heist and suki were less willing than everyone else to believe that I am town. It's another example of heist not willing to be defensive of anybody (except suki). Typical mafia behavior

The NK of s0Lstice makes a lot of sense if heist is mafia and vivax is not. Doesn't make so much sense if cattivik is mafia and vivax is not.

I understand you weren't all convinced about heist based on my arguments yesterday, but hopefully seeing the flips of Vivax, superouman and (possibly) me, you'll now be willing to lynch him. I don't really have anything new to say about him; just reread my filter. No amount of defense will convince me he's not mafia.

Given that heist flips red, I think shiaopi is very likely the last mafia and I'd request that you lynch him. Here are some points against him:
- golden's behavior toward me in the beginning was suspicious. He said that he wasn't really expecting a bandwagon to form, but he seemed really ready & willing to cast a vote on me if my defense wasn't good.
- golden said he'd be willing to lynch 4 people, all of which I think are town
- golden's defense of suki was really scummy
- shiaopi is defensive of heist, who I'm pretty sure is mafia
- shiaopi's stance on vivax went from "maybe there is a slight chance of him being a bad townie" to "wtf no idea" pretty quickly

If heist/shiaopi are not both mafia, I'm not really sure who is. I'm leaning at least slightly town on eveybody else, but I'd probably go with either miltonkram or eishi_ki.