I have entrance exams until Wednesday, so I can't be very active until those are over, but it doesn't look like this game is starting much sooner than Wednesday anyway. Also, I'll become almost certainly inactive starting around the 20th of June (I don't think I'll have Internet connection for a while), but I guess this game should be over by then...? What do you think?
In case my situation isn't too complex, sign me up! I have already played in two games, once as a vanilla townie and once as Mafia - maybe I'll be blue this time?
On May 27 2012 21:04 Xatalos wrote: I think I can join this
I have entrance exams until Wednesday, so I can't be very active until those are over, but it doesn't look like this game is starting much sooner than Wednesday anyway. Also, I'll become almost certainly inactive starting around the 20th of June (I don't think I'll have Internet connection for a while), but I guess this game should be over by then...? What do you think?
In case my situation isn't too complex, sign me up! I have already played in two games, once as a vanilla townie and once as Mafia - maybe I'll be blue this time?
yeah I doubt this game is going to take a month, so 20th of june sounds good to me :p I don't know how soon this is going to start. Rad told me these games usually take a couple of days to get filled up so I'd say wednesday sounds reasonable
Good to hear! Okay, I'm in. This will be my first game with a majority lynch setting, too, so it's nice to have that experience for once (although I didn't like how it led to several no-lynches in Wheel of Fortune).
Question about the setup options... I don't understand why the option with no blue roles has a Mafia Roleblocker, while the options with a Medic or a Detective have no Roleblockers? First of all, the Roleblocker has no use at all without blue roles, but it also makes little sense to have a more "powerful" Mafia team with less blue roles, and a "weaker" Mafia team with more blue roles around...?
On May 27 2012 22:03 Xatalos wrote: Question about the setup options... I don't understand why the option with no blue roles has a Mafia Roleblocker, while the options with a Medic or a Detective have no Roleblockers? First of all, the Roleblocker has no use at all without blue roles, but it also makes little sense to have a more "powerful" Mafia team with less blue roles, and a "weaker" Mafia team with more blue roles around...?
The roleblocker with no blues setup is so that mafia doesnt automatically know wether there are actually any blues for town. Without it, if mafia gets a roleblocker they will know that there is a doctor and a cop, and this prevents them from knowing this information. Roleblocker without any town roles is also basically a all vanilla setup, and its probably harder for town compared to the other 3.
Yeah, I see. Just thought about that meta reason a moment after I posted my question And I agree that especially a Detective is VERY useful in this setup, since his checks are 100% correct (no framers, millers or insane Detectives).
On May 27 2012 22:52 zelblade wrote: I personally think millers are a bad role. One unlucky check can screw you over sooooooooo hard. Only problem with something like this, as said, is that there is 0 doubt in a DT check. Sainty probably isnt a good idea for a newbie game though :D
Yeah, I dislike Millers too... And insanity. Uncertainty = good, randomness = bad. That's why I like Framers (they produce uncertainty to the game without being random). I'm on the fence about Godfathers (I think it's a better role than a Miller or an insane Detective, but not as good as a Framer).
Unfortunate that you can't play in a newbie game anymore, marvellosity I'll look forward to reading your analysis on the ObsQT though, haha! Maybe I'll ask for some advice, too, especially if I'm town.
On May 28 2012 21:40 marvellosity wrote: Time to be a bit more assertive, golden? ^^
first game i ever played i spent so much time writing HUGE posts and people ignored me for 'fluff'
second game i play i get lynched for not posting enough.
There is a golden middle road, you know? In any case, it's better to post too much than too little. Just try to make your every post useful in some way.
On May 29 2012 11:09 Sinensis wrote: Am I allowed to /in this game?
I play a lot but I'm still pretty noob.
Sorry, I think it's 3 games maximum without exceptions...
There is a golden middle road, you know? In any case, it's better to post too much than too little. Just try to make your every post useful in some way.
I loled ^_^
Haha! I'll try not to post as much this time around, to make your lives a bit easier
There is a golden middle road, you know? In any case, it's better to post too much than too little. Just try to make your every post useful in some way.
We found scum before the PM roles are even sent out.
Exams finally over, so now I can "relax" with this game as much as I want Bring it on! Although unfortunately I'm probably sleeping as the game starts...
On May 31 2012 04:29 Superouman wrote: Let's go for my first game :3
Oh, your named looked familiar! Weird to think that I'm playing Mafia with the maker of Cloud Kingdom... Almost like playing Mafia with White-Ra or something, haha!
Good to have you on board, anyhow. I'll have to go sleep soon, but on the other hand, I can read the players better when I'm not involved in the first hours, I guess.
Now I've read through the thread, and I must say... I'm pleasantly surprised. There's a lot of information to work with already at this point.
The post I had the hardest time figuring out was the very first post in the thread by sciberbia:
On May 31 2012 07:20 sciberbia wrote: Good morning all! I'm really looking forward to this game. I've been thinking about what to put in my first post, and I decided on the following sections. I wrote up this post in the hour since my role PM, if you're wondering how I typed so fast. Please excuse the length: this is my first post and I just wanted to get some info in my filter as well as introduce myself to everyone and start some discussion.
I absolutely love playing mafia irl, and I recently played my first forum game: Newbie Mini XIV. I enjoyed the game, and I'm looking forward to playing again with Golden, s0sltice, and Miltonkram. I encourage you all to skim our filters from that game so you have a basis for comparison. Only Miltonkram was mafia.
Mainly because I love playing so much, I will consistently be checking and reading the thread and I'll probably be one of the more active posters. I'll maintain my own list of scumreads and make public cases against my top targets. I'll also help in any way I can to organize lynches when deadlines roll around.
1) make reading the thread a priority 2) periodically post your opinions and contribute to the discussion 3) try really hard to be online in the hours before a deadline. We need to organize majority lynches and it's not easy if a lot of people are offline.
I think that there is actually a strong case for not lynching on day 1 in this game. In the setups without a medic, namely B and D, I am pretty sure that not lynching on day 1 is strictly optimal. I think that lynch vs NL is a wash for setup C, and I'm undecided about setup A - that one's pretty complicated.
If anybody would like to hear more of my reasoning, just ask and I'll be happy to provide.
Fun fact: Depending on how wisely we spend our NL, we have between 13% and 17% chance of winning setup B assuming random lynches. So we need some really solid scumreads regardless of how strategically we play.
The most important thing for us to do is find scum. However, it seems foolish to scumhunt before the majority of players have even looked at the thread. So I think our biggest goal for the first 12 hours or so is to generate discussion. Then, we turn our attention to scumhunting. Here are two things that everyone can comment on:
1) Lynch or NL? 2) Should we lynch inactive players or let them get replaced?
Will all inactive players be replaced or is there a possibility that they just die? If a blue inactive player is modkilled, will their role be transferred to someone else? What if they are mafia?
At first glance, I thought sciberbia was an overeager townie trying to direct the game to his liking. It seemed unlikely for a Mafia (especially a beginner Mafia) to put himself into the spotlight right away. However, when I looked closer at the content of this post, I wasn't so sure anymore. Basically the "meat" of this post was speculation about the setup and suggesting a no-lynch. A no-lynch would just give Mafia more breathing room and a free pass to do whatever they want for today. What's more, Mafia would then shoot the most dangerous player in their eyes, and the lurkers / distractive players would of course live on. This would be an ideal situation for Mafia to start day 2 with: a good town player dead, but every suspicious/lurking player still alive. The pool of lynch candidates would be bigger in comparison, and Mafia could hide much easier.
So, was sciberbia pushing Mafia agenda all along? For a moment I thought so, but looking also at his later posts, I don't think a beginner Mafia could fake such complicated theories and thought processes. Maybe if he was a veteran, but even then, why would he risk himself in the first place? Either he's a great actor or genuinely wanting to help town. Right now I'm leaning on town, especially since this is a newbie game. Occam's razor: the simplest explanation is usually the right one.
Another player I noticed was Cattivik. So far he has been analyzing the game, posting reads, calling out lurkers - all in all, playing for town's win condition. I didn't like him giving sciberbia a free pass just because he was the "first to post", but disregarding that, his filter looks good.
Miltonkram, why did you vote for sciberbia so fast? Do you really want to lynch him or is it just a throwaway vote? I'm not comfortable with lynching him at all, especially since most people haven't even posted anything.
s0Lstice, you have been wishy-washy and cautious so far. Take a hard stance on something or you'll end up as a lynch candidate sooner or later.
Suki, unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Eishi_Ki: start posting as soon as possible. Every moment spent lurking is a victory for Mafia.
I'm going to be offline for a while; start posting about your Mafia reads, especially s0Lstice and those who have yet to post.
Try not to bandwagon with a simple "I agree with ___". We want to limit our lynch candidates. The voting patterns of Day 1 may end up leading us to an excellent mafia candidate day 3 or later. If we have people voting all over the place, the usefulness of the day 1 lynch becomes diluted. That's not say don't be aggressive. Don't be afraid to poke the bear right in the eye if you feel good about an accusation.
Sorry, i missed this, im REALLY against bandwagons, specially at the last hours of the day, i think on day 1 we dont have much information to work on, but we need to have our eyes open for a mafia slip, yes, lets pressure people, if they evade/lurk/start attacking other people whitout a real reason, then thats our day 1 candidate.
Also, i like to save my vote to the last hours of the day, mafia is always much more active at day last hours just to see if they can change the decision or who is going to die.
If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest.
Something feels off about Unforgiven_ve. His contributions so far are "safe" generalities to say about the game. In addition, he wants to move the spotlight away from himself by asking for a town leader to easily sheep, and then he even says that he won't vote until the last hours (when it's extremely easy to bandwagon and blend in as Mafia).
As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already.
On May 31 2012 13:18 Eishi_Ki wrote: Sorry for delaying, I was washing the blood off me knife. Skinning a pig can be tiring work....
Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway.
However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise.
Needz moar infos
I agree with needing more information. And by no means should you blindly follow any accusations. I take it you agree with me on Cattivik but can you clarify your first point about the overuse of the "collective". How exactly is this a scumtell?
I'd like some further responses, especially, especially from you, Cattivik. Overall, it's looking as if we aren't going to be plagued by inactivity and lurking although I would prod Superouman and Ange77 to post more and be active.
@Sciberbia thanks for the discussion generator, but I'm sure it's apparent that the town majority heavily favors a Day 1 lynch and we should proceed to do so. So enough about policy, I'm curious as to your your thoughts on the other players and suspicions.
Just the use of 'we' and 'us' to refer to the townsfolk. Similar to Hollywood'ing in poker, just trying to sell it a bit too much. It caught my eye is all.
It's not good to get stuck on details and semantics. Look for the Mafia motivations behind someone's posting, Eishi_Ki. Mafia rarely make stupid mistakes such as this, since they have to be careful about their every post. So far I feel pretty good about Cattivik being town, given his general attitude and style. Again, occam's razor: if someone plays like town should, they are more likely town. Regardless of some details like what specific words they use.
On May 31 2012 17:47 Superouman wrote: Hi hi, i just woke up, i'm so sad to see our mayor and his assistant die so quickly. This news is a lot worse than all on the tv And i don't like people who talk too much and even more the ones who want to avoid lynching
Your first post is very bland and even outright weird. You begin with some fluff, and then you want to lynch active posters. What?? And what do you mean with "people who want to avoid being lynched"? Who doesn't want to avoid being lynched? I expect to see some improvement soon, although I can't yet say if this is beginner Mafia or beginner town play. It's always hard to tell with posting like this.
s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work.
Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman.
Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty.
Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player.
sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you.
On May 31 2012 22:37 Eishi_Ki wrote: Finally, Xatalos. You have been judging many people's posts so far and accusing them of not being committed enough, threatening them if they don't improve their posts or praising them for doing a good job, all the while not actually contributing very much yourself. Any reason ser? What are your thoughts on people outside of the quality of their posts?
It's better to force the lurking and wishy-washy players to take some stances before starting a major lynch effort. My biggest mistake in the previous game was to start pushing a lynch right at the start, while the actual Mafia just coasted by and lurked in peace. An active and transparent player like sciberbia is less likely to be Mafia than someone who doesn't post any content.
On May 31 2012 22:40 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Eishi_ki: Consider if Xatalos is scum. This is opinion on Cattivik, who i think is scum.
"Another player I noticed was Cattivik. So far he has been analyzing the game, posting reads, calling out lurkers - all in all, playing for town's win condition. I didn't like him giving sciberbia a free pass just because he was the "first to post", but disregarding that, his filter looks good."
Food for thought.
Be careful of connection play. It can lead to many bad judgement calls and trap you in a bad line of thought. The right time to make connections is after someone flips Mafia, not after you think someone might flip Mafia.
If I had to vote right now, I'd vote for Unforgiven_ve. He seems like the one most likely to flip Mafia (as I already detailed). It's hard to make sense of what Superouman is posting, but unless he starts doing something townie at last, he's also pretty high up there. Ange777 hasn't done anything for the discussion either.
My initial impression of Cattivik was town, and it hasn't still changed. The bandwagon against him feels out of place, considering there are several undoubtedly more suspicious players than him out there. Look at the filters of Unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Ange777 and Cattivik and tell me why Cattivik should be our lynch for today. I'm pretty sure at least one of the other three are Mafia, and that there is at least one Mafia among the Cattivik bandwagon.
Try not to bandwagon with a simple "I agree with ___". We want to limit our lynch candidates. The voting patterns of Day 1 may end up leading us to an excellent mafia candidate day 3 or later. If we have people voting all over the place, the usefulness of the day 1 lynch becomes diluted. That's not say don't be aggressive. Don't be afraid to poke the bear right in the eye if you feel good about an accusation.
Sorry, i missed this, im REALLY against bandwagons, specially at the last hours of the day, i think on day 1 we dont have much information to work on, but we need to have our eyes open for a mafia slip, yes, lets pressure people, if they evade/lurk/start attacking other people whitout a real reason, then thats our day 1 candidate.
Also, i like to save my vote to the last hours of the day, mafia is always much more active at day last hours just to see if they can change the decision or who is going to die.
If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest.
Something feels off about Unforgiven_ve. His contributions so far are "safe" generalities to say about the game. In addition, he wants to move the spotlight away from himself by asking for a town leader to easily sheep, and then he even says that he won't vote until the last hours (when it's extremely easy to bandwagon and blend in as Mafia).
As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already.
Sorry, i wont play to "impress" you or anyone, i play for town benefit.
1) What "contributions"? what filter are you talking about? I just posted one time after the day started, of course is "safe", its one post about generalitys and how i think the game shoud be played.
2) Town should discuss everything, i agree on that, but in a newbie game we need to have some kind of structure (same as normal games i think)...im not saying we should vote or choose a leader, i ment, if someone wants to take that spot, take in account all i said in that post
he even says that he won't vote until the last hours (when it's extremely easy to bandwagon and blend in as Mafia)
At day 1 (at least for me) we have to use timing and votting patterns to our gaing, when you just throw a bunch of FoS and Votes in every post you do you are actually helping the mafia, just making townies reasoning harder whit every post you do.
I agree we have to pressure people and make them talk, but we have to do this whitout being PARANOICS, again, this just helps mafia. Raise your case, make a couple post pointing out what you belive about someones filter, keep your FoS to yourself AT LEAST FOR THE BEGGINING OF THE DAY.
(i see it coming) Dont interpret this as some kind of "HEY GUYZ HE'S JUST TRIYING TO MAKE US PASSIVE AND DONT DISCUSSS LETS LYNCH HIM LOLZ I LOVE LOLCATZ"...im saying Play it smart, lets take safe steps every vote counts, every FoS counts, every post someone makes about finding something suspicious SHOULD count.
Finally you posted something, but it's not what I was hoping for from a town Unforgiven_ve. More like what I expected from a Mafia Unforgiven_ve.
Your post reeks of anger and fear, not something town should be feeling in your situation. You even admit you're looking really bad right now: "(i see it coming)". Why not do something to change your situation then? Why continue being useless, angry and antagonizing?
This response convinced me. It's time to get the ball rolling.
On June 01 2012 00:08 Unforgiven_ve wrote: The only thing i feel is a overeager feeling from you to start a bandwagon, seeing as we still have one whole day left i see this unnecessary.
It's the opposite, really. I've been very patient with you, considering your horrible first posts, long absence, and now this angry and useless response. Why don't you do something to convince everyone of your innocence instead of dodging the issue?
On June 01 2012 00:45 heist wrote: Sciberbia is NOT a confirmed townie.
This, i don't understand why he could be a "confirmed" townie, even the most townie-looking person can be toying with us
Cattivik has indeed posted some questionable statements. It's still not enough to make me think he is Mafia. He was the very first poster to push the Mafia hunt, to call out lurkers, to call out suspicious behaviour. If that isn't town play, I don't know what is. Some stupid statements like "confirmed town" don't yet make someone Mafia.
More importantly, I want to see something from you, Superouman. So far you have just posted generalities and useless banter. Do you think Cattivik is Mafia? Do you think Unforgiven_ve is Mafia? Do you have any other opinions?
I have to go offline until the evening, but there's a lot I want to comment on then. I must say I'm not as certain anymore about Unforgiven_ve's guiltiness after reading his latest post. What do you think about that post, s0Lstice and Suki? Did you get that slight townie read from it?
Superouman and Ange777, I REALLY want to hear something from you both soon. If Unforgiven_ve keeps up this style of posting, it would be better to lynch either of you (to at least certainly limit the pool of suspicious and useless lurkers/coasters).
I'm writing this on my phone, so the formatting isn't great, but there's not much time until deadline... So, here's a summary of my thoughts right now.
We need to get a good lynch effort started before the deadline is too close, or Mafia might manipulate the thread to chaos, causing a no-lynch (thus increasing the pool of suspects compared to likely townies after the night kill is over, making it much easier to hide). I'm not very convinced about lynching Unforgiven_ve anymore, since he started showing signs of wanting to participate in the Mafia hunt.
I was thinking about voting for Superouman a bit earlier, but after Miltonkram's post on Ange777, I reconsidered. If Superouman was a more experienced player, he would be pretty likely Mafia. However, since he's new and doesn't apparently know how to play the game properly, it's possible he's just a suboptimal townie playing against his win condition. I see no such plausible explanation for Ange777's play. He's had the time to post excuses about his lack of interest in Mafia hunting, but he hasn't STILL done anything for town's best interests. His play is most obviously anti-town at the moment, and he'll flip Mafia more likely than Unforgiven_ve or Superouman (although you two aren't cleared in my eyes either).
##Unvote ##Vote Ange777
About Suki... I'll look at his filter when I get home, but I got the feeling he's been pretty focused on hunting Mafia. He doesn't read as townie as some players (Cattivik, sciberbia) to me, but I think he also responded earlier in a pretty townie manner. I want to see more from him, but I don't think he's a good Day 1 lynch at all.
Ange777, your defense so far doesn't include anything of substance. You put us in a really hard spot by making us wait so long for answers (and we're still waiting for something else than simply excuses for your earlier apathy), so you need to do something decisive and clearly townie (nail a Mafia, bring your own point of view to today's events, etc). We can't let you get away from this spot without a good reason, since this is the only lynch effort with real momentum right now. If you manage to convince us, we'll have to decide on a new suspect in a very short amount of time, so time is running out for you. You should be as quick as possible.
sciberbia, it's good that Ange777 stopped lurking (at least for now), but it doesn't look good that it happened right after she came under heavy pressure. It could be a coincidence, but it just seems like too convenient to believe. If you have a better lynch candidate to offer, go ahead, but right now lynching Ange777 feels a lot better than a no-lynch. Although I don't like either how Superouman and Unforgiven_ve have just faded to (fake?) absence without contributing anything significant.
I'm fairly certain Mafia are hiding in this lurkish circle of three, but we have to ensure a lynch before the deadline (few hours left anymore!) and Ange777 seems like the only viable option at the moment. She needs 2 more votes, so get voting. Unless you advocate a no-lynch, or have a town read of Ange777 (pretty hard to believe), your best option is to vote for her at the moment.
Even if you only have a neutralish read of her, there's no quarantee we won't be having this same discussion again tomorrow if she continues lurking and undermining the discussion in the same way. In the worst case scenario of her being town, Mafia would still rather have a no-lynch than remove such a distraction from the Mafia hunt. So remain "AFK"/hesitant/vague about this if you're Mafia, but if you're town, you should see that a no-lynch would be much worse than lynching the sneaky lurker.
Ange777, your case against Suki gives me hope that you might become an asset for the Mafia hunt after all. More so than Superouman or Unforgiven_ve. However, you made mistakes / mispresentations. Suki jumping on the lynch push for you (in favor of his better Mafia read) isn't really suspicious in itself, since the other option was to basically vote for no-lynch (Unforgiven_ve had no other votes, so it could have as well been voting for no-lynch). It's actually the most logical thing to do as town (unless you think you can turn the tide of the thread in 3 hours) to ensure a lynch, even if it isn't your best Mafia read. I also dislike how you put so much faith in Unforgiven_ve's initial defense, while to me it just looked like angry deflection and dodging. Unforgiven_ve had one decent post later, but why you would bring up his most Mafia-esque post as his defense, I can't say. I can certainly see why someone would feel suspicious of Unforgiven_ve at this point. Do you think Suki is Mafia if you consider these points? What are your other reads? Please share what you can, as fast as you can.
On June 02 2012 04:29 Unforgiven_ve wrote: This extended mayority lynch will fuck us pretty bad, mafia are theonly ones benefiting from this i think...
This new case (and votes) against Ange777... i did told you mafia would come at last hours for some activity uh? She's is now on my list, but suki remains number one, specially after this
On June 02 2012 01:45 suki wrote: I feel that lynching unforgiven at this point would give us a sure mafia lynch, but from the tone of the thread it doesn't seem like it will pass. I'll put off this discussion until day two.
Ange777 already has four votes on him, and by lynching him we rid ourselves of a lurker. To guarantee a Day 1 lynch I will vote for Ange777.
##Unvote Unforgiven_ve ##Vote Ange777
Same random blind vote agains a case someone's else stated
For me, suki is still number 1, if Ange777 flips red this will just convice me even more, i bet they are wishing for a NL. I will change my vote before deadline if neccesary, i still have a couple hour to burn.
As always, if anyone has any question please ask
Okay ... seems like I have to step back from a Unforgiven defense ...
What are you implying here? That if I flipped red you would be even more convinced that Suki is scum? If you truly think both of us scum there would be no way Suki wants to vote for me. He could easily stick to his vote on you and claim that he is still 100% convinced of you being mafia. High chance for other people to vote for me anyway, so why would he have to vote for me, make himself suspicious of vote switching and bandwaggoning? Furthermore, losing a scum buddy on day 1 would be awful for him. He would indeed prefer a NL instead of my lynch and therefore NOT vote for me!
You just made yourself highly suspicious!
##FoS Unforgiven
You writing posts like this makes me less and less convinced about lynching you, Ange777. If you continued like that tomorrow, it would be a huge loss if you died to this lynch. I'm willing to remove my vote from you and move it to Unforgiven_ve, who just reminded me why I was so suspicious of him initially.
##Unvote ##Vote Unforgiven_ve
The deadline is closing and we need to get 7 votes on a single suspicious player. #1 goes easily to Unforgiven_ve, since Ange777 started playing actively and Superouman hasn't done anything very suspicious (besides his lack of interest in town's win condition). Looks like Suki is absent, which might explain why he was willing to stop pursuing his best Mafia read for today's lynch. Or then he's fake-AFK and wanting to make me think that. In any case, Suki, you need to be more decisive and committing for tomorrow. I don't think you're Mafia right now, but you should improve your play and always trust in your own ability to push the discussion. Consider yourself warned.
Suki, where are you when you need to defend yourself? The bandwagon on you is gathering steam, but you're nowhere to be seen. And I don't even think you're Mafia. Do a favor for everyone and show up right now.
Where are o.Golden_ne, Superouman, Heist and Eishi_Ki for that matter? This huge amount of lurking is making the game so much harder.
On June 02 2012 05:03 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Xatalos: do you really think is not suspicious to come a few hours before deadline and make people belive you are that one analyst the town needs?
Unforgiven ... how about sticking to your stance? Either you don't have a read on me OR I am suspicious ...
I fully agree and wonder why people aren't voting for him already. He's just throwing non-committing blame around and never risking the chance of being put under real scrutiny. If you want to have a textbook Mafia style to analyze, you have one right here... Compare Unforgiven_ve and Suki with each other and tell me Suki is the Mafia of these two. It's probably not both, since they have been antagonizing each other for the whole game.
On June 02 2012 05:27 Unforgiven_ve wrote: im not a fan of this, but im gonna do it...
TOWN please, VOTE FOR SUKI, im pretty sure he is mafia!! I bet he is confortably sitting waiting for Ange777 to get lynched or a No Lynch at best.
Xatalos, if you arent mafia, please do this, a vigi can check me at night (if mafia dont kill me before)
I want a Mafia/lurker/distraction lynch instead of a no-lynch, but I don't want an active townie lynch. I'm no longer willing to lynch Ange777 and still not willing to lynch Suki. This is a serious dilemma though, since time is running out and this vote switch gained momentum fast. Mafia are probably laughing and manipulating this lynch as they please. How much time is left? If there is absolutely no other option, I might have to vote Suki to to disrupt a no-lynch, but I sure hope it doesn't come to that.
Everyone, look at Unforgiven_ve's filter and tell me there's a town motivation behind his play. I can see one for Suki (including his move to ensure the lynch on Ange777 while he still looked like a good lynch) but not for Unforgiven_ve. I hope there's still time to make the correct lynch. I'll be reading his filter to see something that hasn't already been said by me, Ange777 or anyone else.
Vivax (Cattivik), you're clearly online but your vote is useless right now. I ask you to reconsider Ange777 as your Mafia pick and look more carefully at Unforgiven_ve.
Ange777, I also ask you to look at Unforgiven_ve's filter again. I'm still leaning town on Suki and would hate to lynch a townie just to gain some information.
On June 02 2012 06:19 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Xatalos, please think this. Im risking my neck here! im goin all-in for suki, that would be a ridiculous way of play for a mafia dont you think? Its something pretty obvious, at least for me, im convinced he is mafia and when his alignment is revealed + the mafia kill at night, we will have a shitload of information, dont you think?
You just said you'd be offline until the deadline? Why are you still here then? Faking AFK and then slipping by commenting anyway? I also looked through your filter and saw more empty promises. For example, earlier you promised to post a case on a second suspect today, yet you haven't done so. Frankly I don't see why Suki is being voted over Unforgiven_ve. I agree that Suki's flip would reveal information, but I hate lynching mainly for information. Looks like I might have to do it soon though. But if it comes to that, you're next on the list. Or if he actually flips Mafia, I'll have to reconsider you. I find it hard to believe you would bus your teammate so brazenly.
On June 02 2012 06:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: To xatalos again, when I say tomorrow I mean day 2. ... I'm reading and directly responding From my phone
Hmm, okay. Looks like some of your contradictions are just communication errors. Something to slightly lessen my suspicions, but I'll reserve my judgement until the deadline.
I feel bad about this but since so many are AFK / disinterested, I have to ensure the lynch on a probable townie. At least this will make things a lot clearer.
Wow, that's incredible. It was Suki of those two after all... This makes Ange777 and even Unforgiven_ve look pretty townie. Only Superouman is left of my earlier suspects, but even he doesn't look that suspicious. I'll have to reread the discussion before the deadline.
On June 02 2012 07:38 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Lolz, I rule, bunch of noobs
I think you must be town unless you planned a really risky bussing strategy with Suki for this game. That's still the only (although significant) thing going for you. Can you tell us who are your other Mafia reads? What do you think of Vivax, Heist, s0Lstice and me for being opposed to the lynch? What about Ange777? Are you still suspicious/neutral towards her?
I don't think Vivax is Mafia, although I was wrong about Suki too. He has put his own credibility on the line so many times, even brazenly defending Suki while it seemed inevitable he would be lynched.
I'm not so sure about Heist. You haven't done much in the game so far, except when Suki had pressure on him. On the other hand, you were very active in the lynch discussion and focused on ensuring the lynch. I want to see you push an original case sooner rather than later.
Not much to say about s0Lstice, he has been active and helpful after the suboptimal start. Not likely Mafia.
All in all, I'm most concerned about Heist among us who opposed lynching Suki. But I'm also concerned about those who stayed out of the spotlight as we went closer to the deadline, such as Eishi_Ki, Miltonkram, sciberbia and Superouman. I want to hear your explanations for avoiding (or mostly avoiding) the most important event in the game so far, and I want some substance to make up for it.
I'm really tired right now and I'm going to sleep. I feel confident there's enough material to find the remaining Mafia already, so I'll have to read a lot of filters when I get back. Ange777, you're pushing for Vivax, and although you were already right about Suki, I'm not convinced about Vivax at the moment. I'll have to read through his filter next to search for the signs you're seeing.
Ange777, are you there? I think you're the most likely night kill at this point, so you should focus on sharing your reads before the deadline hits. Vivax is your top suspect, but your reasoning isn't fleshed out yet. And really, I'm not convinced that Vivax is Mafia. But I was wrong about Suki, so...
I'm going to be offline for a bit, but I'm almost ready to post a case on my top read. I just want to first see the night kill and possible new posts by him. I doubt my read is going to change at this point though, unless something dramatic happens (such as him being shot or suddenly becoming a convincing townie player). But everything is connected, and I feel like it would be a waste to post lengthy analysis of the game right now, since I don't know why Mafia would shoot me instead of Ange777.
If you think you might be shot now, though, go ahead and share your views before it's too late. Just a few hours before Mafia make their move.
Well, I was wrong about the night kill as well...... But it's too WIFOM to speculate why they shot s0Lstice instead of Ange777 (a more dangerous player? with better reads? fear of the Medic? to cause misleading speculation like that?) so I'm going to just focus on the fact that s0Lstice is now confirmed town (although I had him as a likely town in my list anyway). Here are my thoughts on all players in a summarised fashion - from least suspicious to most suspicious:
s0Lstice
Verdict: confirmed town
Ange777
Initially a lurker, but soon after becoming active she managed to push through the lynch on a (now) confirmed Mafia. This shows that she has both the analytic skills to catch Mafia and unarguably also the willingness to use these skills in practice. I see absolutely zero reason to lynch her at this time.
Verdict: very likely town
sciberbia
Started the game fearlessly by sharing all his thoughts and suggestions. Then proceeded to push Suki, a (now) confirmed Mafia. Committed to the push and didn't hesitate or state vague opinions. I don't see any reason to lynch him either at this point.
Verdict: very likely town
Vivax
Started sharing his thoughts and reads right away with transparency and clarity. Pushed the lurkers very hard to make them post. Overall, strongly townie way to start the game. Responded to pressure with this:
On June 01 2012 05:51 Vivax wrote: Alright, now to my next defense: I'm one of the most, if not the most active poster in this game so far. Assuming that I survive this day or night while being mafia, my posts make me so transparent that I wouldn't survive day 2 for certain. In that case, I would have played mafia like an idiot. Also cause I'm exposing myself quite extremely. Whoever should be proven wrong for promoting the case against me in case I get lynched will most likely get in trouble the next day, cause I will flip town.
I agree with the content of this post: his playstyle is unsuitable for Mafia and would expose him soon enough. However, one could say that his playstyle actually HAS exposed him... Looking at how many are considering lynching him right now. So this defense isn't as good anymore as I thought it was at the time, although I still agree with the idea behind it.
He continues to be aggressive towards lurkers, and strongly defends players like sciberbia and suki. This all reads town to me - although suki turned out to be Mafia, it would be more natural to be vague, slightly defensive or even slightly hostile toward your teammate instead of this strong defense. The problem I see is that he doesn't really post his insights into the suspicions against Suki, but just brushes them off as obviously wrong like this:
On June 02 2012 04:53 Vivax wrote: I just went through sukis' filter, and I would STRONGLY consider him to be town. I see his defense as valid and his efforts as sincere, that said, the people pushing the case against him are either misleaded townies or mafia. And saying he's bandwagoning on Ange777's case is nonsense, he was among the first if not the first.
I don't see any pure Mafia agenda behind this, but it doesn't look townie either. Why would he just state that Suki is obviously town without evidence as Mafia? It doesn't really help Suki, but it just makes himself look worse. On the other hand, I don't see why he would do this as town either.
He continues to defend Suki while attacking Ange777 at the same time. This seems like too reckless for a Mafia Vivax, in my opinion, especially since it started looking more and more likely that the Ange777 lynch was not happening and that Suki was the only possible lynch option. Why not just bus Suki to look better, since it was useless to defend Suki at that point? I'm not seeing fear or survival instincts in his play, even though I don't get his reasons for wanting to lynch Ange777 instead of Suki in that situation. Ange777 was clearly being active and helpful, while Suki was nowhere to be seen (or hiding). And his main reason for lynching Ange777 there was... lurking. What?? She stopped lurking hours ago. Lurking was not a valid reason to lynch her anymore.
Then there's this more recent post:
On June 02 2012 07:22 Vivax wrote: I doubt I can change things now that I'm proven dead wrong. No, I'm not dead. There still are lurkers.
I will keep scumhunting and ignore accusations against me day 2 simply because I might not be able to defend myself in the light of this event and I don't want to waste energy on it.
This seems a bit too defeatist for my tastes. Why does he automatically assume that the lynch has to be between himself and lurkers (Superouman or Golden, I guess?). It just feels wrong that he considers himself so "guilty" just for opposing a Mafia lynch. It doesn't fit well with the style of play he started the game with.
I had a strong town read on Vivax during Day 1, but after reading through his filter now, I can't anymore put him as a strong town read. Still, considering his strong early game, I'd be willing to give him another chance.
Verdict: slightly townie
Unforgiven_ve
I'm not going to spend my focus on him right now, since it feels unlikely he would be teamed up with Suki. It's possible they went for a double bus, but the simpler and cleaner explanation is that they just wanted to get each other lynched, which would mean Unforgiven_ve is town. I'll put my suspicions for him on hold unless he does something that makes me reconsider the issue.
Verdict: neutral
Eishi_Ki
Hasn't really committed to anything of his own, instead has quite passively followed the flow of the thread. His only vote so far is for Ange777, the lurker - the safest possible vote target. This could all mean cautious Mafia, but also unsure townie. I definitely want to see something more from him in order to get a solid read.
Verdict: neutral
ShiaoPi
Not much to say about him. Generally I dislike replacements, since they mess up the reads and kind of "reset" suspicions for the player (a very useful fact for Mafia). But I don't really have any solid read on ShiaoPi at the moment. I want to see him start contributing as soon as possible.
Verdict: neutral
Superouman
Certainly the most frustrating player in the game. Hardcore lurking, unhelpful posts, useless voting (without any reasoning)... It's almost impossible to tell if he's Mafia or town. If I was a Vigilante, I would shoot him without a doubt, but since we don't have one in this setup, he can just continue doing whatever he wants. A part of me wants to policy lynch him, but it would probably be counterproductive by slowing down the Mafia hunt and analysis.
Verdict: neutral
Miltonkram
Started by sharing some strong opinions on policy topics. However, policies are pretty much the easiest possible discussion topic for Mafia. Once he started talking about player reads, he's immediately hesitant and indecisive:
On May 31 2012 07:59 Miltonkram wrote: With all that said, sciberbia has awakened my suspicions. He spends a lot of time with his first post promoting a no lynch. Notice that he weakly pushes his assumption that a no-lynch might be optimal so that he can back down from that assumption later without too much fuss. I think he knows that lynching is the best play, but he wants to divide town into discussing policy instead of actively scumhunting. Thoughts town?
Why would he ask "thoughts town?" before showing his own opinion on the issue (whether sciberbia is Mafia or not)? This just seems incredibly out of place and wary about attracting any negative attention. Then he posts this:
On May 31 2012 08:40 Miltonkram wrote: Sciberbia, I feel kind of bad for this because we(as mafia) shot you N1 of last game, but your discussion of a no-lynch does not make sense to me if you really have the best interests of the town at heart. ##Vote: sciberbia
He doesn't even say if sciberbia is Mafia or not! He just says that he "doesn't have the best interests of the town at heart". This is a very vague statement that can mean many things: sciberbia might be Mafia, he might be a misguided townie, he might be... well, anything except an optimally playing townie. This accusation is so vague and non-committing that there is basically no risk in saying it. Next up is this:
On May 31 2012 16:13 Miltonkram wrote: Since you have pointed out the flaws in my logic... and math, I will hereby ##UnVote: sciberbia Apologies.
This shows perfectly how vague and non-committing his "case" was in the first place. Miltonkram backs off immediately after seeing some sort of a non-suspicious response. He even apologizes at the end of his post for no reason. Why would he apologize for (softly) accusing someone if he thought the accusation had any merit in the first place?
After closely examining Miltonkram's filter up to this point I started to feel like I had just nailed a Mafia, but his later posts start to be more decisive and logical overall. While reading his later posts, I don't get the same suspicious feeling as from his early posts. It's possible he was coached in the MafiaQT on how to post more convincingly, or then he genuinely started to improve with his reads and style of expressing himself. I'll have to see more from him to make a decision.
Verdict: neutral
Heist
Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post:
On June 02 2012 06:14 Vivax wrote: This is a blatantly ridiculous thing to do, yet it looks like I won't be able to push the case against Ange777. To me, it looks like people go extra soft on her to whiteknight. You better pray suki is not gonna flip town, which i believe he will.
##unvote Ange777 ##vote suki
Ready to vote for Ange777 again once there is the prospect of a majority.
Also, remember that unforgiven_ve was the first to push the case against suki. That will reveal a lot about his alignment too.
OH, and Ange777 is actually following that case while suspecting unforgiven at the same time. Why exactly would you suspect someone of being mafia if he was the first pushing the case against someone you believe is mafia?
Looks like we have a scumtell.
The damn deadline is getting close.
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that?
Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier.
I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.
##Vote Heist
I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...
Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post:
On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote: Show nested quote +
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that?
Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier.
I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.
##Vote Heist
I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...
Look at my very first post. I use caps lock pretty frequently when I want emphasis. If you can actually pinpoint any emotion as you call it to something less circumstantial than caps lock, please point it out. I was just merely active during last phase of the lynch. The bussing comment is referring to my opinion of Vivax, whom I believe is mafia. I don't know if you've bothered to read Vivax's comment, but his vote comes close to an hour before the lynch, which is a lot of time before anything is final. I wanted to gain some momentum for Unforgiven_ve but nope. He starts off by putting distance between himself and his vote, arguing all game that Suki is certain town. But then he goes against his surest town read and votes for her anyway. This is classic bussing as mafia and I'm dealing strictly with Vivax's behavior.
It was very late when I was writing that (pretty tired at that point), and I likely had some confirmation bias based on your bussing comment. I agree that the point about your emotionality toward Suki's lynch wasn't good, since looking at your filter again, your earlier posts actually DO include excessive usage of capslock and strong, emotional statements. And the situation really was quite hasty, so it's not all so weird that your posts were hasty as well.
I see that there's a possible townie logic in your bussing comment. Maybe you just completely disregarded Suki's alignment and focused solely on motivations for Vivax's behaviour. It's still weird to assume Suki being Mafia in your argument unless you thought that to actually be the case. This isn't enough to lynch for alone, but something that keeps me wary about your other posts.
What's more troubling for me than that single comment is your apparent disinterest in hunting Mafia. I read s0Lstice's case on you and it had valid points: you pushed for Vivax initially, but dropped that case without much consideration and pushed to lynch Superouman instead. I see no signs of you being truly interested in catching Mafia so far. I'll keep my vote locked in until you can convince me that you genuinely want to lynch Mafia, not just unhelpful players in general.
On June 04 2012 02:03 ShiaoPi wrote: On another related note. Did everybody just bury the huge case of Ange on Vivax? I can actually agree with a lot of that and Vivax' behaviour just before the lynch and after it until now really do not translate as townie to me...You all seem to have a high townread on Vivax, mind elaborating why? I really do not share that sentiment.
Vivax was initially a high town read for me (same as sciberbia, and also s0Lstice once he started to participate), but as the game went on, I lost some of my faith in Vivax being town. He seems to have a lot of town motivations behind his plays, but also some suspicious motivations in between. However, it would actually be fitting for Mafia to be inconsistent in that way: sometimes appearing townie, sometimes not so much. Taking that into consideration, I'll have to drop my read on Vivax from slightly townie to neutral/suspicious.
You bring up some good points about s0Lstice's case on Heist. Heist has definitely stayed suspicious of Vivax for a long time, and considering that Vivax might be Mafia after all, it's a big plus for Heist to have consistently pushed for him. I'll have to reconsider my vote on Heist - Vivax might in fact be the better lynch for today. I'll also have to look deeper into Miltonkram's filter, since his early posts scream Mafia, but his later posts are nowhere near as suspicious. Maybe he just learned to conceal his motivations better?
This is for everyone: I want to see more activity. Most of us haven't posted anything in like... 20 hours?? Especially Vivax, Miltonkram and Heist, I want to see you posting. Anything is better than nothing, and Mafia hunting is better than unhelpful speculation or filler posting.
It looks almost certain now that it's going to be either Vivax or Heist for today. I thought Heist was the better lynch for sure, but his answers for my accusation were good and ShiaoPi pointed out how he's been consistently pushing for Vivax throughout the game. On the other hand, the defense from Vivax wasn't nearly as convincing:
On June 04 2012 03:48 Vivax wrote: I've already said I've finished with my defense and called out the two who i believe to be the remaining mafia members.
It's up to you to interprete my previous posts the right way, but if you don't see heist ignoring ShiaoPi and ShiaoPi defending heist, after s0lstice got killed upon suspecting heist, then go back and read my posts i wrote after his death.
To be honest, I don't mind being lynched, cause then heist and ShiaoPi will be in serious trouble anyway, maybe Ange777 too, but considering 'her' first hit on suki (case against him started by Eishi_Ki and unforgiven_ve) town trusts her too much. Also think that heist and ShiaoPi are supporting a case of a trusted (i believe) townie, it's a pretty safe choice even for mafia.
I think it's really misguided to focus on my posts when there is much more reliable information to get from sukis' posts, you look for mafiavibes from me when there are behaviors of a confirmed mafia towards other players at your disposal.
Look especially at the triangle suki-heist-O.Golden_ne.
1) Defeatist attitude: not minding being lynched. The perfect way for Mafia to deny additional information and/or prepare for a bussing scheme. There's no easier target to bus than one that has already given up. 2) WIFOM: repeating once again as a big point of "evidence" that s0Lstice was killed for suspecting Heist. It's a possibility, but far from evident, especially since s0Lstice was an all-around good town player. 3) OMGUS / Deflection: not bothering to defend from the accusations and/or to push for another lynch. Instead just throws around two names who have been pushing for his own lynch, Heist and ShiaoPi, claiming they will be in "serious trouble" after the lynch. If that's the case, why not focus on making them the lynch for today instead? It's far from quaranteed that his flip, as town, would hold Heist and ShiaoPi responsible or suspect. But his flip, as Mafia, wouldn't clear them either, since these accusations are so shallow and potentially just distancing. The chance for him being Mafia and not wanting to reveal too much with this flip seems much more likely than for being town and wanting to put Heist and ShiaoPi to the lynching list with a "sacrifice". 4) Undermining the atmosphere: placing doubt on Ange777, the main reason for Suki being lynched, without anything to back it up except... well, she lurked early game? Looks more like spreading distrust towards active town posters (without even a good reason) than genuinely wanting to catch Mafia (who thinks Ange777 is Mafia right now? not even Vivax, it seems...).
Since Vivax is looking more and more suspicious, while Heist has alleviated some of my suspicions, I'm going to switch my vote at this point.
##Unvote ##Vote Vivax
I also noticed that Miltonkram started placing doubt on me after I called him out. Not necessarily a Mafia reaction, since anyone would feel threatened by negative attention, but something to keep in mind. Thinking a bit selfishly, though, this slight doubt on me isn't only a bad thing. It means I'm less likely to be shot, so I must thank you for that, Miltonkram.
On June 04 2012 08:47 Miltonkram wrote: Here lies my promised post analyzing the play of Xatalos. I will be looking through his posts chronologically and go over important points again at the end of the post.
On May 31 2012 07:20 sciberbia wrote: Good morning all! I'm really looking forward to this game. I've been thinking about what to put in my first post, and I decided on the following sections. I wrote up this post in the hour since my role PM, if you're wondering how I typed so fast. Please excuse the length: this is my first post and I just wanted to get some info in my filter as well as introduce myself to everyone and start some discussion.
I absolutely love playing mafia irl, and I recently played my first forum game: Newbie Mini XIV. I enjoyed the game, and I'm looking forward to playing again with Golden, s0sltice, and Miltonkram. I encourage you all to skim our filters from that game so you have a basis for comparison. Only Miltonkram was mafia.
Mainly because I love playing so much, I will consistently be checking and reading the thread and I'll probably be one of the more active posters. I'll maintain my own list of scumreads and make public cases against my top targets. I'll also help in any way I can to organize lynches when deadlines roll around.
1) make reading the thread a priority 2) periodically post your opinions and contribute to the discussion 3) try really hard to be online in the hours before a deadline. We need to organize majority lynches and it's not easy if a lot of people are offline.
I think that there is actually a strong case for not lynching on day 1 in this game. In the setups without a medic, namely B and D, I am pretty sure that not lynching on day 1 is strictly optimal. I think that lynch vs NL is a wash for setup C, and I'm undecided about setup A - that one's pretty complicated.
If anybody would like to hear more of my reasoning, just ask and I'll be happy to provide.
Fun fact: Depending on how wisely we spend our NL, we have between 13% and 17% chance of winning setup B assuming random lynches. So we need some really solid scumreads regardless of how strategically we play.
The most important thing for us to do is find scum. However, it seems foolish to scumhunt before the majority of players have even looked at the thread. So I think our biggest goal for the first 12 hours or so is to generate discussion. Then, we turn our attention to scumhunting. Here are two things that everyone can comment on:
1) Lynch or NL? 2) Should we lynch inactive players or let them get replaced?
Will all inactive players be replaced or is there a possibility that they just die? If a blue inactive player is modkilled, will their role be transferred to someone else? What if they are mafia?
At first glance, I thought sciberbia was an overeager townie trying to direct the game to his liking. It seemed unlikely for a Mafia (especially a beginner Mafia) to put himself into the spotlight right away. However, when I looked closer at the content of this post, I wasn't so sure anymore. Basically the "meat" of this post was speculation about the setup and suggesting a no-lynch. A no-lynch would just give Mafia more breathing room and a free pass to do whatever they want for today. What's more, Mafia would then shoot the most dangerous player in their eyes, and the lurkers / distractive players would of course live on. This would be an ideal situation for Mafia to start day 2 with: a good town player dead, but every suspicious/lurking player still alive. The pool of lynch candidates would be bigger in comparison, and Mafia could hide much easier.
So, was sciberbia pushing Mafia agenda all along? For a moment I thought so, but looking also at his later posts, I don't think a beginner Mafia could fake such complicated theories and thought processes. Maybe if he was a veteran, but even then, why would he risk himself in the first place? Either he's a great actor or genuinely wanting to help town. Right now I'm leaning on town, especially since this is a newbie game. Occam's razor: the simplest explanation is usually the right one.
Another player I noticed was Cattivik. So far he has been analyzing the game, posting reads, calling out lurkers - all in all, playing for town's win condition. I didn't like him giving sciberbia a free pass just because he was the "first to post", but disregarding that, his filter looks good.
Miltonkram, why did you vote for sciberbia so fast? Do you really want to lynch him or is it just a throwaway vote? I'm not comfortable with lynching him at all, especially since most people haven't even posted anything.
s0Lstice, you have been wishy-washy and cautious so far. Take a hard stance on something or you'll end up as a lynch candidate sooner or later.
Suki, unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Eishi_Ki: start posting as soon as possible. Every moment spent lurking is a victory for Mafia.
I'm going to be offline for a while; start posting about your Mafia reads, especially s0Lstice and those who have yet to post.
There isn't a whole lot to comment on in this post besides patterns in his play that started here and continued on throughout the majority of his D1 content. Notice how most of the content is on policy. Also note that he points out a lot of names but never directly pressures anyone besides lurkers and spends a lot of time coaching other players on their play. All of this helps him post content that is slightly beneficial to the town without posting much in terms
Try not to bandwagon with a simple "I agree with ___". We want to limit our lynch candidates. The voting patterns of Day 1 may end up leading us to an excellent mafia candidate day 3 or later. If we have people voting all over the place, the usefulness of the day 1 lynch becomes diluted. That's not say don't be aggressive. Don't be afraid to poke the bear right in the eye if you feel good about an accusation.
Sorry, i missed this, im REALLY against bandwagons, specially at the last hours of the day, i think on day 1 we dont have much information to work on, but we need to have our eyes open for a mafia slip, yes, lets pressure people, if they evade/lurk/start attacking other people whitout a real reason, then thats our day 1 candidate.
Also, i like to save my vote to the last hours of the day, mafia is always much more active at day last hours just to see if they can change the decision or who is going to die.
If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest.
Something feels off about Unforgiven_ve. His contributions so far are "safe" generalities to say about the game. In addition, he wants to move the spotlight away from himself by asking for a town leader to easily sheep, and then he even says that he won't vote until the last hours (when it's extremely easy to bandwagon and blend in as Mafia).
As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already.
In this post he put some decent pressure on Unforgiven. By this time Unforgiven had played confusingly and explained his difficulty with language. I won't discount the fact that it would have taken considerable guts as scum to put pressure on that early, but it's possible Xatalos sensed a weak player that he was confident he could get a mislynch(?) on.
I also want to hear from s0lstice and Superouman. Superouman hasn't yet posted anything, and s0lstice's filter is pretty much worthless so far. + Show Spoiler +
On May 31 2012 13:18 Eishi_Ki wrote: Sorry for delaying, I was washing the blood off me knife. Skinning a pig can be tiring work....
Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway.
However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise.
Needz moar infos
I agree with needing more information. And by no means should you blindly follow any accusations. I take it you agree with me on Cattivik but can you clarify your first point about the overuse of the "collective". How exactly is this a scumtell?
I'd like some further responses, especially, especially from you, Cattivik. Overall, it's looking as if we aren't going to be plagued by inactivity and lurking although I would prod Superouman and Ange77 to post more and be active.
@Sciberbia thanks for the discussion generator, but I'm sure it's apparent that the town majority heavily favors a Day 1 lynch and we should proceed to do so. So enough about policy, I'm curious as to your your thoughts on the other players and suspicions.
Just the use of 'we' and 'us' to refer to the townsfolk. Similar to Hollywood'ing in poker, just trying to sell it a bit too much. It caught my eye is all.
It's not good to get stuck on details and semantics. Look for the Mafia motivations behind someone's posting, Eishi_Ki. Mafia rarely make stupid mistakes such as this, since they have to be careful about their every post. So far I feel pretty good about Cattivik being town, given his general attitude and style. Again, occam's razor: if someone plays like town should, they are more likely town. Regardless of some details like what specific words they use.
Once again he coached players on their reads. He also posted a small defense of another Cattivik/Vivax. This all seems fairly pro-town but it doesn't actually promote scumhunting.
4th post has to do with Superoman. At this point everything that has to do with Superouman is confusing so there's very little I can take away from it.
s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work.
Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman.
Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty.
Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player.
sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you.
He pointed out a lot of names once again. Spreading one's focus to a lot of players seems like a pretty decent mafia tactic. Here it made him look like he was posting a lot more content than he was. Now that s0Lstice flipped town we can look back and see if anyone posted towards him like they knew he was town. Xatalos's compliment towards him might be an attempt at buddying.
I have to stop my chronological analysis here because I will be leaving for work soon. Part 2 of my analysis will be up when I come back. I'd like to leave you guys with my thoughts on a couple issues.
D1 lynch patterns: The D1 lynch was a very close affair. If Unforgiven is town, scum had quite a bit of momentum going for a mislynch. It only became obvious that suki was the consensus lynch in the last couple of hours before the deadline. It seems we, the town, inadvertently set up a pretty decent scum trap. Scum only had good reason to switch to suki after it was clear that Unforgiven wouldn't get lynched. With that in mind Vivax, Xatalos and heist look pretty damn scummy. I've already stated that I'm uncomfortable with a heist lynch, something about the case against him feels like there is scum involved. I'll have to look through the filters again and find exactly what that is. I will actively support a lynch on either Xatalos or Vivax.
Lurkers: We have had a ton of inactivity N1/D2. With that in mind Xatalos has only pointed out the inactive players that suit his purpose and line of play. He points out heist even though heist has been pretty active attacking Vivax and defending himself. I find that at best misguided and at worst outright scummy.
Eishi_Ki, Superouman, please get in here and contribute!
The only somewhat decent point I see in this post is that... I thought Suki was town, and acted accordingly. While it places doubt on my reading skills, it's not a solid piece of evidence regarding my alignment. s0Lstice thought Suki was town as well, and he obviously wasn't Mafia. Vivax and Heist also thought he was town, and while one of them very well might be Mafia, it'd be pretty incredible if they were both Mafia (as the two realistic options for the Day 2 lynch...). That means there were at least two town players with a good town read on Suki, and almost certainly at least three town players. I think Mafia would be far more likely to bus their teammate once the lynch starts looking invevitable (just like you actually did, Miltonkram, right after the bandwagon on Suki had reached the critical mass!) than to recklessly expose themselves to scrutiny - with only a very slim chance of achieving anything. In my eyes, it's very risky for Mafia without almost any benefit. Of course it's possible for Mafia to make suboptimal plays (risking everything for nothing), as Vivax defended Suki, and his play hasn't been very optimal anyway, so I wouldn't be surprised if he made such a big mistake in his play.
Your other points are something like "this is a pro-town / ballsy / unsuspicious thing to do, but maybe it's all fake and hiding behind townieness?". Everything is possible, but if something looks townie, the first thing to do shouldn't be to assume it's all fake (unless you have a severe case of confirmation bias, which seems to be the case). By following your logic, we should be pushing to lynch players like Ange777 and sciberbia as well, even though their actions read town. This is just bad / Mafia logic, not much more to say about that.
If you think it's suspicious that I "bandwagoned" on s0Lstice's case for Heist, you should go reread the definition of bandwagoning. It means to go along with the general opinion. I was the only one really pushing for Heist after s0Lstice died, besides sciberbia who also tried to make it the lynch for today. Most of the players were in favor of lynching Vivax after Suki flipped Mafia. That's what I'd call bandwagoning: just sheeping Ange777, the highest town read. You're much more guilty of "bandwagoning" than me at this point, considering that you just voted for a harmless lurker first, then Suki (the general opinion), then apparently now Vivax (the general opinion). I have yet to see you doing anything else than bandwagoning (except voting for Ange777 - the safest possible option to vote for other than just bandwagoning the general opinion...).
Small correction to my previous post: then there's also Miltonkram's doubt towards me, which is an improvement over having no original opinions (with the exception of a safe lurker vote). Still, it came only after I put pressure on him, WITHOUT addressing any of my accusations. That means it's just a reactionary deflection from himself, not a genuine suspicion towards me.
ShiaoPi, I agree that my initial case on Heist wasn't that strong. However, his comment on Vivax "bussing" raised so many red flags that I focused on finding additional evidence and saw some Mafia slips that weren't actual slips. s0Lstice had a good case on him, how is it suspicious to use some of the stuff s0Lstice already mentioned? As a sidenote, I addressed the lynch situation and my actions during it a bit earlier to Miltonkram.
I don't know how this thread became so dead since Day 1. It's really hurting the discussion that a couple of active posters do all the talking, while the rest just stay silent. We need more contribution from almost everyone right now (with the exception of those who have now been active).
On June 04 2012 20:46 Miltonkram wrote: @ Xatalos I am not ignoring your accusations towards me. Due to some severe time constraints I've had to prioritize what I want to get done. The case on you seems quite a bit more important. Looking back I didn't immediately realize that your accusations are almost the exact same accusations that s0Lstice and suki directed at me. I responded to s0Lstice here
Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion. I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game.
Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished
Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished
---snip @ suki My apologies towards sciberbia were an attempt at self deprecating humor. Unfortunately there is no humor font, just as there is no sarcasm font here on the internetz. While my response to your question was not directly aimed at you, I did answer s0Lstice's question on my flip-flop of sciberbia here+ Show Spoiler +
Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion.
I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game.
Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished
Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished
which I felt also adequately answered your question. You keep pestering me about ignoring you when your question+ Show Spoiler +
@Miltonkram I'd like a clear explanation of why you felt it was so important to vote for sciberbia this early in the game.
has been answered, just not directly at you. If you actually read through my posts you'd notice that the question had been answered. You are trying to misrepresent me and I really don't appreciate it.
If there is anything in my response that you are unsatisfied with, feel free to ask me about it.
Hmm. It's easy to claim something was just "humor" afterwards, but if people don't see it as humor at the time, it's either A) bad humor B) not actually humor, but hidden as humor to cover up a mistake. I can see some kind of a (bad) townie logic in these posts, but the stronger alternative is that it was a Mafia play covered up as humor afterwards. In any case, the possibility of bad townie logic is better than no possibility of any townie logic, so this isn't a huge reason to lynch for...
Okay, so you have huge time limitations. The problem I have is that when you actually HAVE been online, you haven't been a contributive force in the discussion. You've just blended in and bandwagoned whenever possible (Suki after reaching a critical mass, Vivax after reaching a critical mass). You also made a safe vote for a lurker on Day 1, then placed some vague suspicions on me today after I called you out. None of this looks good for you.
Also, what about my response to your suspicions? You haven't addressed that at all. I want to see if it was a misguided reaction to me calling you out or a deflection to move attention away from yourself.
On June 04 2012 20:00 Xatalos wrote: Small correction to my previous post: then there's also Miltonkram's doubt towards me, which is an improvement over having no original opinions (with the exception of a safe lurker vote). Still, it came only after I put pressure on him, WITHOUT addressing any of my accusations. That means it's just a reactionary deflection from himself, not a genuine suspicion towards me.
ShiaoPi, I agree that my initial case on Heist wasn't that strong. However, his comment on Vivax "bussing" raised so many red flags that I focused on finding additional evidence and saw some Mafia slips that weren't actual slips. s0Lstice had a good case on him, how is it suspicious to use some of the stuff s0Lstice already mentioned? As a sidenote, I addressed the lynch situation and my actions during it a bit earlier to Miltonkram.
I don't know how this thread became so dead since Day 1. It's really hurting the discussion that a couple of active posters do all the talking, while the rest just stay silent. We need more contribution from almost everyone right now (with the exception of those who have now been active).
I really do not understand all your reactions to the "bussing" comment from heist. Vivax took a total 180 degree turn from his 100%townie read on suki into voting him... Also I already addressed some weak points in s0lstice's case, which simply do not convince me that heist is scum.
Let's look at it this way. Player A thinks player B is Mafia and player C is town. Even so, player A assumes that player C is Mafia while accusing player B! This contradiction is what got my attention. Still, I agree now that it's not good enough to lynch for. It's possible that he just disregarded player C's alignment completely and thought about player B's alignment in isolation, so that his vote for player C (after already reaching a critical amount of votes) was seen as a possible bus attempt (even though player C was a town read for him, he was still considering the possibility of player B bussing player C).
Back... Too bad I wasn't around to see the lynch unfold (early wake up for today), but in the end, I doubt I would have done anything differently. Vivax's behaviour at the end was certainly strange, but it wasn't enough of a reason to suddenly vote Heist so close to the deadline, risking a no-lynch.
This might help Mafia in choosing their night kill, but I'm going to update my reads on the remaining players based on these two flips (Vivax and Superouman) and other developments.
sciberbia
Has shared his reads very openly throughout the game and acted accordingly without any inconsistencies in logic. If he were to be Mafia, I would be extremely shocked.
Verdict: very likely town
austinmcc
Was the driving force for lynching suki (as Ange777) and seemed to care about the lynch target for today as well, even if it wasn't correct. I find it hard to believe he's Mafia either.
Verdict: very likely town
Miltonkram
I've been too focused on his early posts to see the big picture: there's a potential townie logic behind his whole filter, even in early game, if you look closely enough. Sometimes it's bad logic, but it's always there. No post in his filter makes me think "this is driving Mafia agenda for certain". He seems to care about catching Mafia and isn't wishy-washy in his posts. I also liked this post:
On June 05 2012 07:06 Miltonkram wrote: Can we wait on analysis until we have something to analyze please? Thank you.
Some players started showing uncertainty about Vivax's alignment close to the deadline (after pushing him for a long time as very likely Mafia) or even called for a no-lynch instead of lynching him (lol), but Miltonkram didn't waver despite Vivax's strange posting. He didn't call for a no-lynch or plan an "escape route" for the inevitable flip. His whole filter and especially his play on Day 2 makes me think he's town.
Verdict: pretty likely town
Eishi_Ki
Hasn't still committed to (or even pursued) much of anything, merely bandwagoning on Ange777 and then Vivax. Passive play that doesn't point to almost anything. Not a good lynch choice for Day 3, but something to keep an eye on.
Verdict: neutral
Unforgiven_ve
A lot of things point to him being Mafia:
- Trying to get a no-lynch for Day 2 (information denial / confusion) - Very certain that suki would flip Mafia (bussing?) - Certain that Vivax would flip town (buying credibility?) - Promoting the correctness of his own reads (trying to buy credibility by using the information available as Mafia?)
Still, him being Mafia would mean that they decided to go for a double bus (or at least a bus) pretty early on, which doesn't seem too likely especially in a newbie game. That's why he's not a primary suspect for me.
Verdict: neutral
heist
- Flip-flopping about suki's alignment - Weird assumption of Vivax bussing suki (although this isn't too conclusive as I conceded earlier) - s0Lstice's night kill would be most easily explained by heist being Mafia (although this is WIFOM)
ShiaoPi
Nothing that would really make me think he's town (except his recent activity), but plenty to make me think he's Mafia:
- Vaguely defensive of suki (a confirmed Mafia) and also quite defensive of heist (another pretty likely Mafia at this point) - Comfortable with voting Vivax for the whole Day 2... Then suddenly he's a neutral read just before deadline?? What the heck? How does self-voting make him look townish? Looks more like he was already planning for an escape route from the flip's fallout than actually reading Vivax as neutral all of a sudden. - Suspecting Eishi_Ki with pretty flimsy reasoning (just suki saying he's town?) - Suspecting me for having too little content, although if he had bothered to look at my previous newbie game (as vanilla townie), I had much less content compared to "filler" in that game - I think I've done a MUCH better job this time around on avoiding spam/filler, but it's just my nature, I like to write even if there's not too much to say
I'll be voting for heist or ShiaoPi on Day 3, unless something very drastic happens.
- - - -
On June 05 2012 11:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: To austincc. His post shows a pretty standard townie play, his reasoning defending suki were valid for a Newbie townie, his actitude and his defense were good enoguh for me, the problem here is We are dealing whit a bunch of a sheeps who let mafia (read heist- xatalos) lead their way of thought, They are triying since the begginingg of the game to take town leadership whit lame posts and triying to look helpful, their starting strategy (I'm sure) Was to be in the spotlight and when the town chooses a innocent just let them go for it whitout commiting too much. Compare day1 and day2 around Lynch time. See their voting pattern.
Heist is mafia, I'm 75% sure about xatalos
You continue to promote your own correctness... How is that a townie thing to do? If you were so sure Vivax was town, why didn't you try to switch the lynch like sciberbia tried? And why did you suggest a no-lynch before the deadline? And why would me "looking helpful" or "leading town" be Mafia traits, seriously? I have a hard time deciding if you're just a suboptimal townie or Mafia (and overdoing the townie act pretty hard...).
Nothing that would really make me think he's town (except his recent activity), but plenty to make me think he's Mafia:
- Vaguely defensive of suki (a confirmed Mafia) and also quite defensive of heist (another pretty likely Mafia at this point) - Comfortable with voting Vivax for the whole Day 2... Then suddenly he's a neutral read just before deadline?? What the heck? How does self-voting make him look townish? Looks more like he was already planning for an escape route from the flip's fallout than actually reading Vivax as neutral all of a sudden. - Suspecting Eishi_Ki with pretty flimsy reasoning (just suki saying he's town?) - Suspecting me for having too little content, although if he had bothered to look at my previous newbie game (as vanilla townie), I had much less content compared to "filler" in that game - I think I've done a MUCH better job this time around on avoiding spam/filler, but it's just my nature, I like to write even if there's not too much to say
I'll be voting for heist or ShiaoPi on Day 3, unless something very drastic happens.
I'll just tag along your list: -Can you point me to the post where I defended suki? -I agree that you might have some suspicions on me for my behaviour just before the vote. I simply cannot fathom why he voted himself and refused to really regard the multiple cases against him. I see no motivation for scum to vote themselves, which was the reason for my posts where I stated my confusion. Regarding your opinion on an escape route. I could have easily unvoted if I really wanted to stay clear of the fallout, I did not since I said "a no-lynch is just as bad" and I still stand by it. Yes it sucked that we got one of our own, but a no-lynch would have been worse in regards of gathering information. We now have 2 confirmed (albeit dead) townies to look through. -In my case against Eishi I did state that it is a weak suspicion, I encouraged him to post more, but sadly he seems unable to due to RL constraints. I would say it is quite important with whom and how suki interacted as he is a confirmed scum so a soft-defense from a confirmed mafia player is in my opinion nothing to scoff at. Especially if that player has not had a big presence in this game until now. -Isn't that last argument kind of not an argument against me? I fail to see how it makes me scummy to suspect you (besides OMGUS) based on filler content. What is important is this game not a past game.
On June 05 2012 22:02 Xatalos wrote: Back... Too bad I wasn't around to see the lynch unfold (early wake up for today), but in the end, I doubt I would have done anything differently. Vivax's behaviour at the end was certainly strange, but it wasn't enough of a reason to suddenly vote Heist so close to the deadline, risking a no-lynch.
This might help Mafia in choosing their night kill, but I'm going to update my reads on the remaining players based on these two flips (Vivax and Superouman) and other developments.
Why help mafia in choosing the night kill? I am not against night discussion (it might help our blues after all) but does that bolded part only strike me as weird?
You (well, more accurately o.Golden_ne) "kind of" defended suki here with deflection (even more suspicious than defending straight):
On June 01 2012 14:20 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Sciberbia. I'm uncertain of suki at the moment. but i'm worried that a bandwagon is forming on him. we need to rationally consider a few options. i need to mull over suki's filter a while longer before condemning him. I feel that we may be more prosperous lynching some lurchers first, because as far as scumminess goes if suki is mafia (or anyone for that matter) chances are they'll keep digging themselves a hole if we can see it this early. I'm just so super wary of lurker now because of their potentially game changing absence.
That's definitely the most suspicious interaction with suki so far in the game...
How is self-voting uncharasteristic for Mafia? Maybe he could have hoped to trick someone into unvoting (as Unforgiven_ve suggested soon after) to cause a no-lynch or just to confuse the discussion. I don't see why you thought he was townish/neutral after such a stunt.
Hmm. Okay, your suspicion of Eishi_Ki isn't that bad, although still with weak reasoning. Could be aiming for an easy prey (mislynch) as well.
Yeah, maybe it was a slight OMGUS to suspect you for suspecting me. It's not bad to criticize for filler content, although if you look at my last game as town, I have way less filler content now, so it's not really a huge point. So I remove this point from the list, but you shouldn't still ignore it as you seem to do.
I was just saying that last night I didn't want to share my town/Mafia reads before the night kill precisely to avoid aiding Mafia, but now I feel I have a bigger chance of being shot, so I didn't take risks and posted anyway before the deadline.
On June 06 2012 02:32 ShiaoPi wrote: So your main argument against me is an action, which I did not even make...Make of it what you want, but I would not take another players actions as part of an analysis against a replacement.
That logic is just bad or outright scummy. Why wouldn't you want us to look at o.Golden_ne's filter? One lynch can decide the game, so everything has to be considered. Something can't just be forgotten without a good reason (no, giving a replacement a "fresh start" is not a good reason). By that logic, Ange777's pro-town efforts should be forgotten as well while analyzing austinmcc. There's just no sense in what you're saying.
Unforgiven_ve, I want to hear you address my list of suspicious points about you, as well as austinmcc's inquiry. heist, where are you? My list of suspicious points about you is pretty short right now, but Unforgiven_ve makes less sense as Mafia than you considering how Day 1 went, so you have a long way to go if you don't want to be lynched next.
On June 06 2012 02:32 ShiaoPi wrote: So your main argument against me is an action, which I did not even make...Make of it what you want, but I would not take another players actions as part of an analysis against a replacement.
That logic is just bad or outright scummy. Why wouldn't you want us to look at o.Golden_ne's filter? One lynch can decide the game, so everything has to be considered. Something can't just be forgotten without a good reason (no, giving a replacement a "fresh start" is not a good reason). By that logic, Ange777's pro-town efforts should be forgotten as well while analyzing austinmcc. There's just no sense in what you're saying.
Unforgiven_ve, I want to hear you address my list of suspicious points about you, as well as austinmcc's inquiry. heist, where are you? My list of suspicious points about you is pretty short right now, but Unforgiven_ve makes less sense as Mafia than you considering how Day 1 went, so you have a long way to go if you don't want to be lynched next.
Why is that logic bad/scummy? We are pretty much playing a behavioural analysis game and therefore I just pointed out that taking things a person did not do to analyse him does not always bring up coherent results as I am not Golden and he isn't me. I also never said that you should not look at Golden's filter. You are trying to read something within my posts that isn't there.
The problem is that you have the same alignment as o.Golden_ne, so o.Golden_ne's actions are equally important as your own actions when determining your alignment. It's the same when there's a hydra player (2+ players on one account): you have to consider every post, no matter who posted it. The way how you downplay the importance of o.Golden_ne's posts can be seen as either misguided policy-making or deflecting dangerous attention away from them.
Well, that wasn't too shocking :/ I pretty much agree with sciberbia's final Mafia reads, so lynching heist seems like the best option for today.
##Vote heist
I came back here just to see the night kill before falling asleep, but now I really need some sleep. I'll post more detailed thoughts tomorrow. ShiaoPi, do you still think heist is townie?
What's going on here? Only three short posts since I went to sleep yesterday? Almost half of this day has already gone to waste. Everyone, you should post your reads and reasoning to get things moving already -.-
I'm pretty sure the last 2 Mafia are between heist, ShiaoPi and Unforgiven_ve. heist seems like the most obvious Mafia - it's telling that nobody (except ShiaoPi) has seen him as a town read, and he was the prime suspect for both s0Lstice and sciberbia before they were killed.
If heist flips Mafia, ShiaoPi would be the most logical third Mafia. He's simply had too many suspect interactions with both suki and heist. If heist flips town (which I find hard to believe at this point), Unforgiven_ve would be more likely Mafia than ShiaoPi. Unforgiven_ve has been shouting "hey, I'm town, my reads are 100% assured and correct, can you see I'm not Mafia yet?" at every turn, but it would be pretty stupid play (although not impossible, looking at his posting...) if he took his act far enough to tunnel both of his teammates. That's really nonsensical, but then again, so has been his general posting style...
The current vote count is 2 for heist (me, Unforgiven_ve). Miltonkram's latest post indicates that he'd be willing to lynch heist for today. That means one more vote is needed for the lynch to go through.
ShiaoPi, Miltonkram and austinmcc: what are your thoughts on heist, ShiaoPi and Unforgiven_ve?
Eishi_Ki, why did you even join this game if you're not going to play it? Or maybe you're just actively lurking? It doesn't really look like that, but anything's possible. Your latest post is 2 days old... So what are your thoughts on heist, ShiaoPi and Unforgiven_ve?
Unforgiven_ve, why do you actually think heist is 100% Mafia and what's your reasoning for randomly saying I'm "75% Mafia"...? What are your thoughts on ShiaoPi?
heist, what are your Mafia reads now that Vivax and Superouman flipped town? Are you still "comfortable" with lynching Unforgiven_ve? What are your detailed opinions on every player right now?
On June 07 2012 03:42 Miltonkram wrote: I'm willing to lynch heist. If he flips red then I think ShiaoPi is scum too. If he flips town then I'll have to pursue other leads such as Eishi_Ki, Unforgiven or Xatalos. I haven't been around much because my sister got in a car accident while the rest of my family is out of town. She'll be ok, but I have to drive out to my family's place and take care of her for a while. I should be back with plenty of time before the lynch deadline, but just in case I don't here is my vote.
##Vote: heist
Well, our opinions don't seem to differ too much... Although if you actually read my metagame, you'd see how I have much less "filler content" than I had in my previous game (as town). Good recovery for your sister anyways
What I most want to hear right now are ShiaoPi's and austinmcc's thoughts on heist. ShiaoPi, how does heist read for you right now, and how about Unforgiven_ve? austinmcc, you seem suspicious of Unforgiven_ve, but are you going to vote for heist today?
On June 07 2012 11:30 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Milton, What about Xatalos?
Could you finally tell me why I'm such a likely Mafia? Just for pushing your lynch Day 1? And what's your opinion on ShiaoPi (I know heist is 100% Mafia for you without much reasoning whatsoever...)? I still don't think you're anyhow "confirmed town" based on your stance toward suki... Just less likely Mafia than otherwise. And things like leaving these unhelpful one liners everywhere aren't helping you.
austinmcc, Eishi_Ki, ShiaoPi, heist, where have you all been? Most of Day 3 has already passed and you haven't posted at all. Get posting before the deadline! I'll have to be offline for a while, but I can check the thread irregularly from my phone, so I should somehow be able to post for today. I'll be back home a couple of hours before the deadline.
On June 07 2012 20:18 ShiaoPi wrote: First of regarding my opinion on heist:
I have already outlined in earlier posts how he feels kind of townie to me, so I will not repeat myself here, in regards of scumminess there are several things right now which feel a little bit off. -Lack of activity (weak one I admit it ) -The last post from him with his vote on Vivax, seems a bit like sheeping to me or just OMGUS.
Regarding the voting pattern I would not say he is the scummiest. Xatalos is way more reluctant to vote suki.. + Show Spoiler +
On June 02 2012 06:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: To xatalos again, when I say tomorrow I mean day 2. ... I'm reading and directly responding From my phone
Hmm, okay. Looks like some of your contradictions are just communication errors. Something to slightly lessen my suspicions, but I'll reserve my judgement until the deadline.
I feel bad about this but since so many are AFK / disinterested, I have to ensure the lynch on a probable townie. At least this will make things a lot clearer.
##Unvote ##Vote Suki
This is his votepost and recheck the thread he votes after Heist switches from unforgiven to suki. The lynch on suki is already ensured. So his vote does not make any sense. Even if golden had popped in in the last second there was no way for him to change the outcome of the vote. Furthermore Xatalos was the first to jump on the Unforgiven Suspicions.
Conclusively I would not support a heist lynch, the strongest argument seems to be the voting pattern, but Xatalos is way more fishy in that regard. I would advocate a lynch on Xatalos instead, going to outline my thoughts in the next post.
I'm on my phone right now and in a bit of a hurry, so I'll post more later, but I just have to comment on this.
1) I had already said I wouldn't let a no-lynch happen no matter what, so the exact timing for my vote on suki doesn't matter much. I could have done it an hour earlier or just a minute before the deadline... The end result would have been the same. 2) I probably typed the vote earlier than heist, but he ninja'd me while I was typing a bit more than just "##Vote suki" like he did, so... At the time of writing I thought my vote attained the majority. 3) Yes, I was the first to suspect Unforgiven_ve, very early on Day 1. I didn't start suspecting him once Ange777 started seeming more and more townish: I just wanted to lynch the more likely Mafia out of Unforgiven_ve and suki.
You already managed to save heist yesterday, and it's looking more and more like you're trying to seal your victory by lynching me instead for today. The more you post, the more suspicious your connection with suki and heist seems.
On June 07 2012 21:54 ShiaoPi wrote: I'm on my phone right now and in a bit of a hurry, so I'll post more later, but I just have to comment on this.
1) I had already said I wouldn't let a no-lynch happen no matter what, so the exact timing for my vote on suki doesn't matter much. I could have done it an hour earlier or just a minute before the deadline... The end result would have been the same. 2) I probably typed the vote earlier than heist, but he ninja'd me while I was typing a bit more than just "##Vote suki" like he did, so... At the time of writing I thought my vote attained the majority. 3) Yes, I was the first to suspect Unforgiven_ve, very early on Day 1. I didn't start suspecting him once Ange777 started seeming more and more townish: I just wanted to lynch the more likely Mafia out of Unforgiven_ve and suki.
You already managed to save heist yesterday, and it's looking more and more like you're trying to seal your victory by lynching me instead for today. The more you post, the more suspicious your connection with suki and heist seems.
1) Heist said the same thing, why is his vote-switch scummier than yours? 2) Possible as timestamps are not far apart 3) Heist was actually one of the few who did not feel like pushing ange777 immediately, he was not part of the bandwagon on her, so if he is scum why did he stay out of it?
Yes, I admit I have a pretty sure townie read on him (besides his lack of activity since day 3) and therefore I am not afraid to defend him against accusations. IF he is scum like you are claiming, well sucks for me and my reading abilities then.[/QUOTE]
1) Have I ever even suspected heist for his vote switch as a major reason in the first place? I suspected his weird behaviour (flip-flopping his stance on suki, appearing indecisive and panicking with the lynch, assumption of Vivax bussing suki while suki was apparently a town read for him...). It would have been pretty pointless/bad for me as Mafia to vouch for suki's townieness while his lynch had clearly been inevitable for a long time. 2) Yep... 3) Dunno, maybe just to appear more townie. Why would I push heist instead of Vivax on Day 2 if I was Mafia? Why would I risk my credibility by defending suki (the inevitable lynch) openly as Mafia?
I'll have to read your full case later, not for your sake, but to explain the reasonings behind my potentially weird plays...
While reading through ShiaoPi's case against me, I had to wonder, why is he going so all-in to save heist? That's when I came to a realization: this is practically LYLO already! Let's assume for a moment that Eishi_Ki is town and heist & ShiaoPi are Mafia... Then it all suddenly makes sense.
A) Eishi_Ki has been posting less and less, so it's looking pretty likely that he will be modkilled at the deadline -> 4 town left. B) Heist votes for me at the last minute to avoid a modkill. C) A mislynch (me) now -> 3 town left. C) Mafia night kill -> 2 town left. D) 2 Mafia vs 2 town -> Mafia has achieved its win condition.
So: ShiaoPi trying to desperately switch the lynch from heist to me isn't all that surprising, after all. This day will basically already decide the game one way or another. Lynching heist will lead to town victory, a mislynch will lead to certain Mafia victory. There's just no way we can afford a mislynch now.
Before going into the main case, just some comments to ShiaoPi's latest attack: 1) heist's stance on suki has definitely not been solid. Now you're just twisting facts. Go read sciberbia's filter where he nicely collected the evicence on this. I conceded earlier that heist's excessive usage of capslock there wasn't a good argument, since he did that a lot in other posts, but you should definitely see *some* kind of a panic in his style of posting there. Same with the bussing comment, I conceded that it wasn't the best argument, but still held some weight. 3) You say doing something would be stupid for a Mafia heist, but when I do something equally stupid for a Mafia Xatalos, it suddenly doesn't count? Just read my filter again - without confirmation bias - and you'll see that my play makes very little sense as Mafia. Much, much less than for heist. Although I doubt that's really relevant to your interests anyway...
Now, into the main case...
1) "Filler/moderating content", as you put it, can be a sign of Mafia wanting to look helpful. It can also be a sign of a townie who has A) a lot of time in his hands and B) not enough solid reads to post 100% purely about them. You seem to ignore that option, for some reason... Just look at my history. I have a TON of "filler/moderating content" when I play town. Not so much when I play Mafia.
2) I don't see how it's scummy to suspect a suspicious player, then start looking elsewhere when your suspicions are reduced somewhat. It would actually be scummy to continue tunneling a player while he starts showing signs of towniness.
3) I didn't really have a solid Mafia read at that point, and most people wanted to just lynch a lurker (yourself included - I mean o.Golden_ne), I was more supportive of lynching the more cautious and lurky lurker (Ange777) over the merely frustrating lurker (Superouman).
4) If you consider that as a "soft" (more like pretty clear IMO) defense of suki, then your (o.Golden_ne's) vague defense of suki earlier was softer than soft, and massively more suspicious. Still you keep dismissing that post and claiming it shouldn't be considered while analyzing yourself, the replacement.
5) suki was away for the unfolding of the lynch (while Unforgiven_ve was not), but she had posted a lot of well thought-out posts with both real opinions and reasoning - while Unforgiven_ve had just posted pretty much weird stuff without reasoning to back up his opinions. Although Unforgiven_ve was online at that moment and suki was not, I considered suki to truthfully be the more active and helpful poster of these two (in hindsight, she was Mafia, but we're talking about that moment in time).
6) I already mentioned that as I was typing my vote, the majority hadn't yet been attained, but heist ninja'd me to probably try and buy some "credibility" over me. But in the end, it doesn't really matter who voted first... The vote was already settled. We both had mentioned earlier that we were pro-lynch and would consolidate to prevent a no-lynch, so a no-lynch wasn't going to happen anyway.
7) You continue to bash me for "sheeping" arguments, but if there's a good argument already mentioned by another (now dead) player, why shouldn't I also take it into consideration while deciding my vote? As is said: every idea has already been invented at some point in history, but there's nothing wrong with reusing old ideas. And I actually did add my own observations: the emotionality/hastiness (although proven wrong), the panic, the bussing comment...
8) How come those 4 points were already addressed before...? Considering that I focused solely on Vivax's latest "defense" post and analyzed it. Nobody else had yet even mentioned that post. I don't get this part of your case. I switched to Vivax because his defense seemed scummy and heist's defense seemed more townish at the time. Besides, if I was Mafia, I should have just retained my vote on heist... The majority of players wanted to lynch Vivax anyway, so my vote didn't change the end result at all. It would have also looked better for me to be on the "right" side of the lynch (like sciberbia and Unforgiven_ve) as opposed to voting for the mislynch. If I was Mafia, my behaviour wouldn't make any sense during Day 2.
9) Actually, this is my third game, so you should go read my two previous games. My play in this game has been similar to my previous game (town), and very different from my first game (Mafia). That should be telling already. I don't know how my play is non-committal considering my hard stances of heist+you being the remaining Mafia team and my high town reads of several players during the game (Cattivik/Vivax, sciberbia, Ange777/austinmcc...).
Seriously, this is why I hate lurkers/inactives -.- They just ruin the game for everyone. Why even join if you can't afford the time to post once every 3 days? With so many lurkers, there's simply no way to know who is actively lurking and who is simply being inactive.
I'm still for lynching heist, because he might be just waiting for his time to vote at the last minute. Then again, if he'll just get modkilled, it wouldn't make a difference either way.
If we assume that Eishi_Ki is town and getting modkilled (so inactive, I don't have my hopes up for him appearing...):
A) heist is Mafia and waiting to vote just before the deadline: in this case we should definitely lynch him B) heist is town/Mafia and simply not online: in this case it doesn't matter either way, he'll just get modkilled
Looking at these two options, I see absolutely no harm in lynching heist. He already has 3 votes, and we agreed to lynch every day at the start. austinmcc, your vote for Unforgiven_ve is basically a vote for no-lynch at this point. So why not vote for heist in case situation A happened to be true? A no-lynch would lead to the same result as voting for heist in situation B, but a no-lynch would lead to Mafia victory in case A.
On June 08 2012 05:18 Miltonkram wrote: Was away for a bit.
If we have 2 mafia active at the moment and heist and Eishi_Ki don't show up then town loses no matter what. Let's assume we do have at least 4 active townies. If all the active townies move their votes onto someone who would get modkilled either way, we can make sure we don't lose more players than we have to. Of the two, heist looks scummier to me and Eishi_Ki could very well have lost interest in the game given his posting patterns. Thoughts?
I agree fully. If we just no-lynch and heist is Mafia waiting for his time to vote, it's GG no matter what. If neither of them is coming back, there's still no harm in lynching heist.
Sorry, had to leave the computer for a while. Looks like heist returned after all (although I don't know why he didn't wait until the last moment to vote... maybe afraid of austinmcc switching in the end?). austinmcc, please do look hard at heist. There's not much time left and we really need a lynch.
On June 08 2012 06:51 Unforgiven_ve wrote: OP: if there's a no lynch toda, please kill me and reveal my role. I won't make you lose Time whit this horrible players.
Unfortunately, I have to agree with you for once... It's just too obvious that heist is Mafia. Whoever of ShiaoPi/austinmcc is town (most likely austinmcc), I feel ashamed for you -.-
On June 08 2012 06:58 austinmcc wrote: Alright, fine. We'll keep it simple. Had a lot of people convinced that heist is scum. Both NKs, most people today, etc.
##Unvote ##Vote: heist
Unforgiven, if you flip town I'm not going to be able to believe this
On June 08 2012 07:17 austinmcc wrote: Going to assume that everyone thinks Shiao is the final mafia?
I'd say it's 99% at this point. He tried to deflect attention away from suki, then he deflected attention away from heist which was an important factor in Vivax being lynched instead of heist, and now he ALMOST (very very close) managed to turn this into a no-lynch -> stalling for time, shooting those who wanted to lynch heist at night, very possibly winning the game by leaving gullible townies alive (sorry to say, austinmcc, I think you belong to this category :/ ).
I'm going to sleep now. I don't really see who could be the final Mafia besides ShiaoPi at this point. Earlier I considered Unforgiven_ve as a Mafia, but his behaviour today (and especially combined with suki's lynch) makes it very, very unlikely. Good night!
On June 08 2012 07:33 Unforgiven_ve wrote: 2 from 2? Bunch of... Unknow foreigners... Now, this is where it gets really interesting... Xatalos or austincc (aka super-Anacletus)?
I don't think saopi is mafia, its between those two guys
Just before leaving: why austinmcc / me instead of ShiaoPi? Lol? I don't see why you would make that statement as either town or Mafia. Your play is just too confusing to think about. We both ensured the lynch (austinmcc at the last minute, but whatever, he got the job done) while ShiaoPi was very close to success with saving heist. I can't see how he would honestly see heist as town after all this, even advocating a NO-LYNCH of all things to save him... He must be Mafia or this game doesn't make any sense.
I think the night kill is going to be Miltonkram. At least that's what I'd do in ShiaoPi's position... But it's just all too WIFOM to think about -.- So not much use to talk about that...
Yeah, if yesterday's lynch had been a mislynch, it would have been already GG (2 town vs 2 Mafia). Even if it had been a no-lynch, it would have been basically GG (shoot Miltonkram -> convince one of austinmcc or Unforgiven_ve to vote for me -> GG). So this game was very, very close: I'm happy austinmcc made the correct choice in the end. As you can see, even a no-lynch would have pretty much meant a 90% win chance for Mafia... Unforgiven_ve, if you still wonder why ShiaoPi defended heist so desperately, there's your answer. I think it's pretty clear and in no way "bad Mafia play". They almost won with a no-lynch, but austinmcc made the right choice, ruining their plan.
I'll have to be offline for some time, but later today I'll be going through ShiaoPi's full filter (o.Golden_ne + ShiaoPi) to find every suspicious move he's made up to this point. Especially considering the flips of suki and heist. I don't really see how the last Mafia could be anyone else after yesterday's events. Miltonkram looks like obvious town at this point, I'm quite certain austinmcc is town as well (he could have just won the game for Mafia yesterday if he wanted to, but chose not to), and Unforgiven_ve makes very little sense as Mafia (driving the lynches of suki and heist).
On June 08 2012 21:08 ShiaoPi wrote: Here comes my defense, make sure to read it through in detail.
I AM NOT MAFIA
To explain my actions in day 2+3: I have a pretty high scum read on Xatalos (go reread my case for the details) and therefore what unfolded was that to me a highly possible scum player started to pressure one of my townreads (heist). Reasons for my townread have been given galore, maybe they look ridiculous given the flip now, but please consider them within the context without heist's flip. So I went pretty all out in my defense of him since had we mislynched we would have lost the game by now. (3 Town - 2 Scum, Nightkill still incoming). I look entirely stupid now and mafia are probably laughing their ass off because of me but I want to stress the fact that being wrong is not a scumtrait! As townie we lack the information of alignments, ask yourself could you have made the same misread on heist?
@Milton: Then ask yourself why am I not conceding if I am scum? Please reread my filter from a town perspective not from a scum one with confirmation bias. Go through my cases and posts, judge them on their own not based on the current situation.
On June 07 2012 21:34 ShiaoPi wrote: My case on Xatalos:
I'll be going through his play chronologically:
Day 1: I already stated his "filler/moderating" content so I'll just give you a quote as example: + Show Spoiler +
On May 31 2012 21:32 Xatalos wrote: s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work.
Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman.
Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty.
Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player.
sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you.
His first meaningful action on Day 1 is a vote on Unforgiven, who did seem and still seems like a wildcard in regards of his posting habits. It is an easy action to take, since unforgiven's play is erratic and at day 1 he did not yet have some credibility by pushing the lynch on suki. He drops his suspicions as soon as unforgiven makes a reasonable defense. Could be a sign of townie but also of scum who decides that unforgiven is too hard to push as mislynch.
His next vote is on ange777:
On June 01 2012 21:10 Xatalos wrote:
-snip-
We need to get a good lynch effort started before the deadline is too close, or Mafia might manipulate the thread to chaos, causing a no-lynch (thus increasing the pool of suspects compared to likely townies after the night kill is over, making it much easier to hide). I'm not very convinced about lynching Unforgiven_ve anymore, since he started showing signs of wanting to participate in the Mafia hunt.
I was thinking about voting for Superouman a bit earlier, but after Miltonkram's post on Ange777, I reconsidered.
-snipped-
About Suki... I'll look at his filter when I get home, but I got the feeling he's been pretty focused on hunting Mafia. He doesn't read as townie as some players (Cattivik, sciberbia) to me, but I think he also responded earlier in a pretty townie manner. I want to see more from him, but I don't think he's a good Day 1 lynch at all.
I bolded the parts which seem important to me. -His post was still 9 hours away from deadline, a reasonable amount of time so there was no need to hastily consolidate on a lynchcandidate. -He gives no other reasons to vote ange besides sheeping MIlton's post (admittedly there was still not much to make off, but the sheeping is important) -A soft defense of suki, who is, just as a reminder, confirmed scum.
After Ange posts her case on suki, Xatalos responds the following:
On June 02 2012 04:15 Xatalos wrote: Ange777, your case against Suki gives me hope that you might become an asset for the Mafia hunt after all. More so than Superouman or Unforgiven_ve. However, you made mistakes / mispresentations. Suki jumping on the lynch push for you (in favor of his better Mafia read) isn't really suspicious in itself, since the other option was to basically vote for no-lynch (Unforgiven_ve had no other votes, so it could have as well been voting for no-lynch). It's actually the most logical thing to do as town (unless you think you can turn the tide of the thread in 3 hours) to ensure a lynch, even if it isn't your best Mafia read. I also dislike how you put so much faith in Unforgiven_ve's initial defense, while to me it just looked like angry deflection and dodging. Unforgiven_ve had one decent post later, but why you would bring up his most Mafia-esque post as his defense, I can't say. I can certainly see why someone would feel suspicious of Unforgiven_ve at this point. Do you think Suki is Mafia if you consider these points? What are your other reads? Please share what you can, as fast as you can.
He keeps up a defense on suki and keeps some suspicion on unforgiven.
Next up is his voteswitch from ange to Unforgiven:
On June 02 2012 04:59 Xatalos wrote:
You writing posts like this makes me less and less convinced about lynching you, Ange777. If you continued like that tomorrow, it would be a huge loss if you died to this lynch. I'm willing to remove my vote from you and move it to Unforgiven_ve, who just reminded me why I was so suspicious of him initially.
##Unvote ##Vote Unforgiven_ve
The deadline is closing and we need to get 7 votes on a single suspicious player. #1 goes easily to Unforgiven_ve, since Ange777 started playing actively and Superouman hasn't done anything very suspicious (besides his lack of interest in town's win condition). Looks like Suki is absent, which might explain why he was willing to stop pursuing his best Mafia read for today's lynch. Or then he's fake-AFK and wanting to make me think that. In any case, Suki, you need to be more decisive and committing for tomorrow. I don't think you're Mafia right now, but you should improve your play and always trust in your own ability to push the discussion. Consider yourself warned.
Drops all suspicions against ange and just goes after unforgiven after the (at that moment) most outspoken townie-seeming person drops a FOS on him. It seems to me like an active attempt to deflect towns attention away from suki, especially as he keeps soft-defending suki.
He keeps lobbying for a unforgiven lynch although most of the people seem to jump on the suki-train instead. This post strikes me as important:
On June 02 2012 05:46 Xatalos wrote:
I want a Mafia/lurker/distraction lynch instead of a no-lynch, but I don't want an active townie lynch. I'm no longer willing to lynch Ange777 and still not willing to lynch Suki. This is a serious dilemma though, since time is running out and this vote switch gained momentum fast. Mafia are probably laughing and manipulating this lynch as they please. How much time is left? If there is absolutely no other option, I might have to vote Suki to to disrupt a no-lynch, but I sure hope it doesn't come to that.
Everyone, look at Unforgiven_ve's filter and tell me there's a town motivation behind his play. I can see one for Suki (including his move to ensure the lynch on Ange777 while he still looked like a good lynch) but not for Unforgiven_ve. I hope there's still time to make the correct lynch. I'll be reading his filter to see something that hasn't already been said by me, Ange777 or anyone else.
He says he does not want an active townie lynch. But suki is not really an active townie at that moment especially in comparison to unforgiven who was online and posting all the time leading up to the lynch.
In my last post I already outlined the switch from unforgiven to ange, but as it is really important I'll quote it again:
On June 02 2012 06:49 Xatalos wrote: -snipped--
I feel bad about this but since so many are AFK / disinterested, I have to ensure the lynch on a probable townie. At least this will make things a lot clearer.
##Unvote ##Vote Suki
By that time suki is already a goner as heist has already swapped his vote. There is no need for Xatalos to switch, besides trying to be on the "right" side of a lynch. Of note is that he is the very last one to switch his vote.
On June 02 2012 08:15 Xatalos wrote: -snipped- All in all, I'm most concerned about Heist among us who opposed lynching Suki. But I'm also concerned about those who stayed out of the spotlight as we went closer to the deadline, such as Eishi_Ki, Miltonkram, sciberbia and Superouman. I want to hear your explanations for avoiding (or mostly avoiding) the most important event in the game so far, and I want some substance to make up for it.
I'm really tired right now and I'm going to sleep. I feel confident there's enough material to find the remaining Mafia already, so I'll have to read a lot of filters when I get back. Ange777, you're pushing for Vivax, and although you were already right about Suki, I'm not convinced about Vivax at the moment. I'll have to read through his filter next to search for the signs you're seeing.
He starts throwing suspicion towards heist after solstice points him out. No original case with strong backing until now. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day 2
He begins the day by posting a massive list of all players, which with closer inspection is just a summary of events. With two notable exceptions, a slight suspicion of MIlton and adding his vote onto heist.
On June 03 2012 10:42 Xatalos wrote: --snipped-- Heist
Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post:
On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote:
On June 02 2012 06:14 Vivax wrote: This is a blatantly ridiculous thing to do, yet it looks like I won't be able to push the case against Ange777. To me, it looks like people go extra soft on her to whiteknight. You better pray suki is not gonna flip town, which i believe he will.
##unvote Ange777 ##vote suki
Ready to vote for Ange777 again once there is the prospect of a majority.
Also, remember that unforgiven_ve was the first to push the case against suki. That will reveal a lot about his alignment too.
OH, and Ange777 is actually following that case while suspecting unforgiven at the same time. Why exactly would you suspect someone of being mafia if he was the first pushing the case against someone you believe is mafia?
Looks like we have a scumtell.
The damn deadline is getting close.
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that?
Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier.
I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.
##Vote Heist
I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...
He is (again!) sheeping reasons outlined by others. There is close to zero input from him in this list and following vote on heist. The single thing he adds (the bussing comment) can be read either way and is a really weak argument. This gets reinforced by his following post in regards to heist's answer:
On June 03 2012 19:15 Xatalos wrote: --snipped---
I see that there's a possible townie logic in your bussing comment. Maybe you just completely disregarded Suki's alignment and focused solely on motivations for Vivax's behaviour. It's still weird to assume Suki being Mafia in your argument unless you thought that to actually be the case. This isn't enough to lynch for alone, but something that keeps me wary about your other posts.
What's more troubling for me than that single comment is your apparent disinterest in hunting Mafia. I read s0Lstice's case on you and it had valid points: you pushed for Vivax initially, but dropped that case without much consideration and pushed to lynch Superouman instead. I see no signs of you being truly interested in catching Mafia so far. I'll keep my vote locked in until you can convince me that you genuinely want to lynch Mafia, not just unhelpful players in general.
He backs off his suspicions slightly and then just sheeps solstice's reasons. He also states that he wants to stick with his vote if heist does nothing to convince him otherwise. One can assume that he still has some strong conviction that heist is mafia. But how does this post feature in it then?
On June 04 2012 02:57 Xatalos wrote:
Vivax was initially a high town read for me (same as sciberbia, and also s0Lstice once he started to participate), but as the game went on, I lost some of my faith in Vivax being town. He seems to have a lot of town motivations behind his plays, but also some suspicious motivations in between. However, it would actually be fitting for Mafia to be inconsistent in that way: sometimes appearing townie, sometimes not so much. Taking that into consideration, I'll have to drop my read on Vivax from slightly townie to neutral/suspicious.
You bring up some good points about s0Lstice's case on Heist. Heist has definitely stayed suspicious of Vivax for a long time, and considering that Vivax might be Mafia after all, it's a big plus for Heist to have consistently pushed for him. I'll have to reconsider my vote on Heist - Vivax might in fact be the better lynch for today. I'll also have to look deeper into Miltonkram's filter, since his early posts scream Mafia, but his later posts are nowhere near as suspicious. Maybe he just learned to conceal his motivations better?
This is for everyone: I want to see more activity. Most of us haven't posted anything in like... 20 hours?? Especially Vivax, Miltonkram and Heist, I want to see you posting. Anything is better than nothing, and Mafia hunting is better than unhelpful speculation or filler posting.
I post a defense of heist and points on Vivax and Xatalos just goes with the current flow of the thread (again) and now suddenly seems willing to switch on Vivax. Maybe because he knows that neither heist or Vivax are scum? Where did his conviction about heist go?
He then proceeds to switch his vote from heist to Vivax with the following:
On June 04 2012 18:25 Xatalos wrote: It looks almost certain now that it's going to be either Vivax or Heist for today. I thought Heist was the better lynch for sure, but his answers for my accusation were good and ShiaoPi pointed out how he's been consistently pushing for Vivax throughout the game. On the other hand, the defense from Vivax wasn't nearly as convincing:
On June 04 2012 03:48 Vivax wrote: I've already said I've finished with my defense and called out the two who i believe to be the remaining mafia members.
It's up to you to interprete my previous posts the right way, but if you don't see heist ignoring ShiaoPi and ShiaoPi defending heist, after s0lstice got killed upon suspecting heist, then go back and read my posts i wrote after his death.
To be honest, I don't mind being lynched, cause then heist and ShiaoPi will be in serious trouble anyway, maybe Ange777 too, but considering 'her' first hit on suki (case against him started by Eishi_Ki and unforgiven_ve) town trusts her too much. Also think that heist and ShiaoPi are supporting a case of a trusted (i believe) townie, it's a pretty safe choice even for mafia.
I think it's really misguided to focus on my posts when there is much more reliable information to get from sukis' posts, you look for mafiavibes from me when there are behaviors of a confirmed mafia towards other players at your disposal.
Look especially at the triangle suki-heist-O.Golden_ne.
1) Defeatist attitude: not minding being lynched. The perfect way for Mafia to deny additional information and/or prepare for a bussing scheme. There's no easier target to bus than one that has already given up. 2) WIFOM: repeating once again as a big point of "evidence" that s0Lstice was killed for suspecting Heist. It's a possibility, but far from evident, especially since s0Lstice was an all-around good town player. 3) OMGUS / Deflection: not bothering to defend from the accusations and/or to push for another lynch. Instead just throws around two names who have been pushing for his own lynch, Heist and ShiaoPi, claiming they will be in "serious trouble" after the lynch. If that's the case, why not focus on making them the lynch for today instead? It's far from quaranteed that his flip, as town, would hold Heist and ShiaoPi responsible or suspect. But his flip, as Mafia, wouldn't clear them either, since these accusations are so shallow and potentially just distancing. The chance for him being Mafia and not wanting to reveal too much with this flip seems much more likely than for being town and wanting to put Heist and ShiaoPi to the lynching list with a "sacrifice". 4) Undermining the atmosphere: placing doubt on Ange777, the main reason for Suki being lynched, without anything to back it up except... well, she lurked early game? Looks more like spreading distrust towards active town posters (without even a good reason) than genuinely wanting to catch Mafia (who thinks Ange777 is Mafia right now? not even Vivax, it seems...).
Since Vivax is looking more and more suspicious, while Heist has alleviated some of my suspicions, I'm going to switch my vote at this point.
##Unvote ##Vote Vivax
His switch seems to be well reasoned with his list of 4 points, but these things were all mentioned already by several others. How come that Xatalos just never seems to find some original strong evidence against his lynch targets? Quite an interesting thing.
He again posts a giant list of summaries, this time including me in his list of suspects (besides heist). His strongest argument is Golden's post in regards to suki. His other arguments were pretty weak.
He immediately drops the vote on heist. As in defense to Milton's suspicions he keeps up this single line of defense against his filler/wishy-washy.
On June 07 2012 06:00 Xatalos wrote:
Well, our opinions don't seem to differ too much... Although if you actually read my metagame, you'd see how I have much less "filler content" than I had in my previous game (as town). Good recovery for your sister anyways
What I most want to hear right now are ShiaoPi's and austinmcc's thoughts on heist. ShiaoPi, how does heist read for you right now, and how about Unforgiven_ve? austinmcc, you seem suspicious of Unforgiven_ve, but are you going to vote for heist today?
I am asking you how big should the metagame with a sample size of 1 count in regards to townieness/scumminess? What I am seeing from Xatalos is non-comittal play, filler content, attempts to seem contributing (look at his lists) and always sheeping reasons others have brought up. So I strongly believe Xatalos to be mafia.
On June 08 2012 03:49 ShiaoPi wrote: My case on Xatalos in short:
-Not much content despite being pretty active in thread -Wants to look contributing (lists) but actually does not much. -Easily swayed from his own opinion -Soft-defense of suki during the d1-lynch and trying to deflect attention onto unforgiven -Always going with the flow of the thread, never going against it.
What lends further credibility to this is that heist votes on unforgiven instead of Xatalos: + Show Spoiler +
On June 08 2012 06:08 heist wrote: Vivax is town.
OK I can expect the backlash. But I think problem here is everyone is just trying to attribute the most scummy motivations to every action that I've been doing and ignoring everything that can't possibly construed as scum. Same to ShiaoPi, literally just for association with me.
@Miltonkran: I don't think we should be policy lurker lynching anyone today. Today's lynch is way too crucial to have a mislynch on Eishi whose suspicions rest mainly on lurking, which at this point is a nulltell.
And there's no way I'm voting for myself. (I don't understand you Vivax).
It may be my point of view, but I think it's safe to say that mafia will be trying their hardest to get me lynched today. And from that point of view, my main suspicions are still going to rest on Unforgiven_ve.
His unfounded accusations against Ange77 linking her and Suki, his quick bandwagon after ONE single off-hand comment from Solstice. Do you guys realize where all the accusations against me started? From this comment by Solstice:
On June 02 2012 06:34 s0Lstice wrote: This is chaos. We are badly split up right now. The only chance we have at a majority now as I see it is Suki.
Ange777 made some good points about him, but then flung shit at everybody who continued to question her. I asked for analysis, there was enough time and plenty of content in the past to comment on. Instead you made a snap judgement on unforgiven and then basically insta tunneled him.
I hate how this day is ending. Heist, if Suki flips scum, you're in deep. You came in late and changed your vote to another pointless vote, splitting us further.
I'm in an awkward position because I've suspected both Suki and Unforgiven. Vivax makes a good point about suspecting both being logically unsound. With that said, I'm not feeling too great about Suki being lynched, as my read on unforgiven is stronger.
I just don't see the Unforgiven lynch happening today. It has to be Suki, here and now, or nobody.
## unvote ## Vote: Suki
Solstice later backed up his accusation in his night post, but Unforgiven_ve, you basically hitch a ride on this bandwagon really quickly and without good reasoning of your own. You have continued to do no real analysis of me and instead state your reasoning as "it's obvious" and the rest just goading everyone else to mindlessly follow your example.
##Vote: Unforgiven_ve
The remaining scum is either Miltonkram or Xatalos.
And seriously I am not the only one suspicious of him: + Show Spoiler +
On June 08 2012 05:41 Miltonkram wrote: @ ShiaoPi We don't need to lose more players than we have to today. I was kind of waiting to see how heist flips to finish my speculations on both you and Xatalos. You've made a good case against him, but I'm sticking with heist. Heist has been way more active than Eishi. His disappearance seems really suspicious, doesn't it? Of the two I think heist is way more likely to get in here and ninja vote.
On June 08 2012 03:58 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Lol austin, you are surpasing yourself at making lame and mistaken acussations. Vote for heist, then vote for Xatalos and we will win. trust me.
The reason my lasts post are so short is because im posting from my phone.
Suspecting Xatalos: Your filter is baaaaaaad on that count Xatalos. I haven't checked old game yet. But you're constantly moderating. Constantly asking people for thoughts, giving someone a gold star for a good post. It looked bad to me as well, before I really read through you and Shiao's stuff today. So again, I saw the same thing, not finding it scummy.
sciberbia's points were mostly the same - the suki defense, the vivax vote/doubts, the defense of heist. Not really finding ShiaoPi scummy right now.
Again, I wasted too much time this game day, so I'm going ahead and posting these two. Post on the case against xatalos coming soon.
For sure it is risky to bus your teammate that hard and get him lynched but look at the following situation: We lose one of us tonight, you mislynch me day 4 (and I know I will flip town) and suddenly we lost the game as we head into night 4 with 2 Town vs. 1 Scum. It is the ideal situation for the scumteam that I went bonkers on my defense of heist, but I am doing my best to remedy it.
I have already answered to your case once (and pointed out its flaws). You agreed that some parts of it were incorrect, we agreed to disagree on some parts, and obviously it's now mostly obsolete as a whole (your points regarding heist are at best wrong - and most likely indicative of you being teamed up with him). So, I have a hard time grasping why you would just copy-paste your (clearly incorrect) old case instead of making a new case.
You also added some new points, but they're basically just WIFOM (no matter what I do, it's for a hidden Mafia agenda - there's clearly nothing I could do that would seem townish in front of your heavy confirmation bias).
It's also blatantly wrong to say I've been following the flow of the thread: I was against lynching Ange777 once she started contributing, against lynching suki until I had to ensure the lynch with my final vote (although ninja'd by heist), against lynching Vivax until I (in hindsight, mistakenly) later during Day 2 had to agree that his recent play wasn't townish, heavily against a no-lynch although heist, austinmcc and yourself almost caused a no-lynch yesterday. If anyone, YOU have been following the flow of the thread (not counting yesterday where you went all-in to save heist -> instant Mafia victory).
With that out of the way, let's move on to ShiaoPi's own filter (o.Golden_ne + ShiaoPi, of course):
On May 31 2012 22:37 O.Golden_ne wrote: If you read his filter you will see a broad range of players name in his posts, however rather than posting any solid analysis on ANYTHING he is recounting what they have said. I can read all the posts mate. he the proceeds to attack Eishi_ki on some fairly shaky reasoning.
As s0lstice pointed out, Unforgiven_ve has contradicted himself. I like s0lstices case on him and will back it.
Today my 4 lynch candidates are: Cattivik, Unforgiven, Superouman and Ange777.
The second 2 are for lurking. And i f**king hate lurkers after that last game.
This post already reeks of non-committal and vague reads (without much of any reasoning). He's ready to lynch 4 players (Cattivik/Vivax, Unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Ange777/austinmcc) - none of whom seem to be Mafia at this point - but doesn't actually commit to anything! He just says they're "lurking" or "a bit suspicious" and leaves it at that. He doesn't pressure, he doesn't reason, he even admits that he's just sheeping s0Lstice on suspecting Unforgiven_ve... Nothing in this post feels like something a townie would say. He doesn't actually Mafia hunt or add anything to the discussion. He just posts some vague reads without committing to any of them.
On June 01 2012 14:20 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Sciberbia. I'm uncertain of suki at the moment. but i'm worried that a bandwagon is forming on him. we need to rationally consider a few options. i need to mull over suki's filter a while longer before condemning him. I feel that we may be more prosperous lynching some lurchers first, because as far as scumminess goes if suki is mafia (or anyone for that matter) chances are they'll keep digging themselves a hole if we can see it this early. I'm just so super wary of lurker now because of their potentially game changing absence.
I already mentioned this post earlier. He tries to save suki from being lynched, but doesn't actually even think that suki is town! He just basically says "suki might well be Mafia, but it'd be better to lynch a lurker before him". How does that make any sense at all from a town perspective? Only Mafia would say something like that. This post is pretty much enough to determine his alignment in itself, but in fact, it's merely the start...
He's conveniently away for the lynch deadline and retains his vote on Ange777/austinmcc. Based on that earlier post, I'm fairly certain he would have continued trying to save suki - even though he didn't have a town read on suki at any point! - had he not been partying somewhere. Just because of this dumb luck, he manages to narrowly escape the flak s0Lstice, Vivax, heist and I get for having a town read on suki. Even though, in fact, he has by far the most suspicious relation with suki during Day 1 - way more suspicious than any of us four.
Now we get to the juicy part:
On June 03 2012 06:59 ShiaoPi wrote: Sorry took me longer than I thought to catch up and all, let's share some of my reads:
To me there are several people kind of suspicious: First of I am really wary of Vivax: His play seemed really solid and townielike until ange posted her case on suki. He states that he believes 100% in his townread on suki and goes to great length to try to defend him and secure the lynch on ange, when his reasons to vote her were only lurking. It does seem scummy as we all know that suki flipped scum. On the other hand his tunneling could also be a sign of bad townie, I am kind of torn about him, what really strikes me out is that he does not seem to want to face the critique which is for sure going to come his way at Day 2, but on the other hand going by the first half of day 1 and his playstyle it could just as well be a bad townie.
eishi_ki is slightly suspicious, he kind of lurked (although with RL complications, so not making a fuss out of it) but what struck me was the soft-defense suki gave him: + Show Spoiler +
In any case, I don't think Eishi is scum, but he hasn't contributed that much to the thread as of yet.
and
I wasn't piling suspicion on Eishi_ki. Eishi was under fire by Cattivik, so I was posting my read on him, and my read was that, based on his posts thus far, Eishi had not contributed anything, but I did not feel he was scum.
This makes it slightly suspicious, especially as these posts came before he came under pressure prior to lynch.
Superouman: I guess everybody can agree that he is a huge mystery right now, wishy-washy non-committal posts, refusal to play according to win-con and a random vote on sciberbia. Until he starts posting again not much to make of, but seriously this guy is sooo confusing.
Xatalos would be my last on this list of kind of suspicion. He seemed to take quite a good moderating role on in day 1 directing discussion etc. But the content within his posts is not too much if you look at them closely. Furthermore in the phase just before lynch he presses really hard for a lynch on unforgiven, given the fact that suki flipped scum it could have been a deflecting manoveur, this would kind of link him up with heist , but heist reads as pretty townie to me.
ShiaoPi's first post is very, very wishy-washy and non-committal. He's "kind of" suspicious of several players, but doesn't commit to anything - much like o.Golden_ne played earlier. His main suspect is Vivax, although he repeatedly adds that Vivax might equally well be a bad townie (how non-committal can one get...?). Even though he thinks Vivax has a good chance of flipping town, he just goes with the consensus opinion and wants to lynch Vivax anyway.
On June 04 2012 01:53 ShiaoPi wrote: What confuses me right now is that heist seems to pop up as a sure scumread for some people out of the sudden, he was no where near suspicion in day1 only after solstice posted his case pressure mounted up. So let's take a look at solstice's case:
The first topic of the case depends heavily on the town-read solstice got from Vivax. Furthermore it is worth to note that heist's suspicions of Vivax stem from his "100%-townread" he got on sciberbia. This is something which seems highly suspicious to me as well. I do not deny that sciberbia is a high townread for me too, but NOBODY is confirmed town until the flip. Naturally you can put that on a case of bad townie, but still it is weird. I can understand why he kind of tunnels Vivax from this point on. Furthermore it deals with his general playstyle in the first half of day 1. I do not see inconsistencies there. He scumhunts Vivax and (to a lesser degree) Unforgiven as well as pointing out the totally useless guy in superouman.
Solstice's case continues with the lynch: He claims to see inconsistency and scummotivation in his play. I frankly said do not agree. Heist enters as soon as ange returns and wants to see more from her (like pretty much everyone) and then plays the waiting game. Unforgiven does weird posts in that time so I can see him jumping on him as he was suspicious of him anyway. His voting pattern seems pretty clear. His vote on superouman was part-pressure, part-incentive for other people to vote him off instead of ange, as he switches he simply goes to unforgiven as his next best scumread. He even states that he does not vote for suki as he reads as town to him, his "yelling" at vivax is something totally conceivable, take a look at vivax' post it screams stupidity he still does not believe that suki is scum but votes him anyway?! The so called "uselessness" of the counter-case on unforgiven can be put into doubt from my point of view. Until suki's flip everyone had reservations of unforgiven due to his play and therer was momentum building on it as well. And his "late" voting can be explained that he simply did not believe suki is scum, which he stated several times. He stuck by his reads, which seems okay to me.
So much for my townread on heist.
He defends heist from being lynched, much like he defended suki earlier. The one thing that really screams Mafia here is this: he uses many of the exact same arguments to validate his desire to lynch me that actually applied to heist as well - but when he talks about heist, he trashes/ignores those same arguments completely!!! This glaring contradiction can only be explained by both heist and ShiaoPi being Mafia. If he was town, there's no way he would use the same arguments to accuse me that he earlier defended heist from.
On June 05 2012 06:49 sciberbia wrote: Well, it looks like Vivax is being lynched. I hope you guys were right about him, but I have a bad feeling about this one.
@ShiaoPi you think he will flip town now?
I am now confused as hell. I don't believe scum would be that suicidal but right now my read on him is now: WTF?! No Idea
After Vivax self-votes (which is definitely not something townies would/should do), ShiaoPi immediately loses all his (already almost non-existent) commitment for pushing Vivax. He tries to make himself look like he's not to blame for the lynch: after all, he has a town/neutral read on Vivax... Who could blame him for just consolidating to prevent a no-lynch? Win-win!
On June 08 2012 05:24 ShiaoPi wrote: Well I will not switch my vote on heist. If you really only want one of eishi/heist then I say go with eishi, but no chance to convince you on Xatalos?
Again wishy-washy and doesn't commit to anything. Wants to lynch Eishi_Ki or me (town & town) instead of heist. He might have even succeeded and won the game for Mafia, if it weren't for some good calls, especially by austinmcc.
Well, that's pretty much it. There's very likely more Mafia agenda elsewhere in his filter, but even a part of this case should be enough to convince anyone he's Mafia - and all this together makes it basically impossible for him NOT to be Mafia...
On June 09 2012 02:11 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Dont worry austin, you just anaclet'ed again this time lol. Always playing for mafia, maybe this time you are one of them !!! *suspense music*
Could you explain why austinmcc would be Mafia over ShiaoPi? I just don't see any sense in that. Read through their filters and give some reasoning, not just random one liners.
I have already answered to your case once (and pointed out its flaws). You agreed that some parts of it were incorrect, we agreed to disagree on some parts, and obviously it's now mostly obsolete as a whole (your points regarding heist are at best wrong - and most likely indicative of you being teamed up with him). So, I have a hard time grasping why you would just copy-paste your (clearly incorrect) old case instead of making a new case.
What makes my case clearly incorrect, all of you just take a good look at the case and the exchange between me and Xatalos afterwards, think for yourself and think critically. I requoted my case since it is still valid.
You also added some new points, but they're basically just WIFOM (no matter what I do, it's for a hidden Mafia agenda - there's clearly nothing I could do that would seem townish in front of your heavy confirmation bias).
The same thing is working against me right now. I might not be able to convince Xatalos of his own guilt (well who could ) but to all the rest of you, I am just wishing that you consider my thoughts, cases and posts based on their merit.
It's also blatantly wrong to say I've been following the flow of the thread: I was against lynching Ange777 once she started contributing, against lynching suki until I had to ensure the lynch with my final vote (although ninja'd by heist), against lynching Vivax until I (in hindsight, mistakenly) later during Day 2 had to agree that his recent play wasn't townish, heavily against a no-lynch although heist, austinmcc and yourself almost caused a no-lynch yesterday. If anyone, YOU have been following the flow of the thread (not counting yesterday where you went all-in to save heist -> instant Mafia victory).
-You were against lynching ange as soon as she started contributing. Well that is following the thread, I assume you meant as soon as ange posted the case on suki which was the contribution. -you were against lynching suki, because he is your scumbuddy -against lynching vivax? You were for lynching heist, as the general opinion was and then suddenly as Vivax got some amount of pressure you switched -no-lynch was not the flow of the thread just look at the way the votes tallied up. Everyone was on the fence against heist, everyone including you. -Where have I been following the thread? I wanted to lynch Vivax when nobody else seemed willing to do it, I want to get you lynched when nobody seems willing to do it.
With that out of the way, let's move on to ShiaoPi's own filter (o.Golden_ne + ShiaoPi, of course):
On May 31 2012 22:37 O.Golden_ne wrote: If you read his filter you will see a broad range of players name in his posts, however rather than posting any solid analysis on ANYTHING he is recounting what they have said. I can read all the posts mate. he the proceeds to attack Eishi_ki on some fairly shaky reasoning.
As s0lstice pointed out, Unforgiven_ve has contradicted himself. I like s0lstices case on him and will back it.
Today my 4 lynch candidates are: Cattivik, Unforgiven, Superouman and Ange777.
The second 2 are for lurking. And i f**king hate lurkers after that last game.
This post already reeks of non-committal and vague reads (without much of any reasoning). He's ready to lynch 4 players (Cattivik/Vivax, Unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Ange777/austinmcc) - none of whom seem to be Mafia at this point - but doesn't actually commit to anything! He just says they're "lurking" or "a bit suspicious" and leaves it at that. He doesn't pressure, he doesn't reason, he even admits that he's just sheeping s0Lstice on suspecting Unforgiven_ve... Nothing in this post feels like something a townie would say. He doesn't actually Mafia hunt or add anything to the discussion. He just posts some vague reads without committing to any of them.
On June 01 2012 14:20 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Sciberbia. I'm uncertain of suki at the moment. but i'm worried that a bandwagon is forming on him. we need to rationally consider a few options. i need to mull over suki's filter a while longer before condemning him. I feel that we may be more prosperous lynching some lurchers first, because as far as scumminess goes if suki is mafia (or anyone for that matter) chances are they'll keep digging themselves a hole if we can see it this early. I'm just so super wary of lurker now because of their potentially game changing absence.
I already mentioned this post earlier. He tries to save suki from being lynched, but doesn't actually even think that suki is town! He just basically says "suki might well be Mafia, but it'd be better to lynch a lurker before him". How does that make any sense at all from a town perspective? Only Mafia would say something like that. This post is pretty much enough to determine his alignment in itself, but in fact, it's merely the start...
He's conveniently away for the lynch deadline and retains his vote on Ange777/austinmcc. Based on that earlier post, I'm fairly certain he would have continued trying to save suki - even though he didn't have a town read on suki at any point! - had he not been partying somewhere. Just because of this dumb luck, he manages to narrowly escape the flak s0Lstice, Vivax, heist and I get for having a town read on suki. Even though, in fact, he has by far the most suspicious relation with suki during Day 1 - way more suspicious than any of us four.
Now we get to the juicy part:
On June 03 2012 06:59 ShiaoPi wrote: Sorry took me longer than I thought to catch up and all, let's share some of my reads:
To me there are several people kind of suspicious: First of I am really wary of Vivax: His play seemed really solid and townielike until ange posted her case on suki. He states that he believes 100% in his townread on suki and goes to great length to try to defend him and secure the lynch on ange, when his reasons to vote her were only lurking. It does seem scummy as we all know that suki flipped scum. On the other hand his tunneling could also be a sign of bad townie, I am kind of torn about him, what really strikes me out is that he does not seem to want to face the critique which is for sure going to come his way at Day 2, but on the other hand going by the first half of day 1 and his playstyle it could just as well be a bad townie.
eishi_ki is slightly suspicious, he kind of lurked (although with RL complications, so not making a fuss out of it) but what struck me was the soft-defense suki gave him: + Show Spoiler +
In any case, I don't think Eishi is scum, but he hasn't contributed that much to the thread as of yet.
and
I wasn't piling suspicion on Eishi_ki. Eishi was under fire by Cattivik, so I was posting my read on him, and my read was that, based on his posts thus far, Eishi had not contributed anything, but I did not feel he was scum.
This makes it slightly suspicious, especially as these posts came before he came under pressure prior to lynch.
Superouman: I guess everybody can agree that he is a huge mystery right now, wishy-washy non-committal posts, refusal to play according to win-con and a random vote on sciberbia. Until he starts posting again not much to make of, but seriously this guy is sooo confusing.
Xatalos would be my last on this list of kind of suspicion. He seemed to take quite a good moderating role on in day 1 directing discussion etc. But the content within his posts is not too much if you look at them closely. Furthermore in the phase just before lynch he presses really hard for a lynch on unforgiven, given the fact that suki flipped scum it could have been a deflecting manoveur, this would kind of link him up with heist , but heist reads as pretty townie to me.
ShiaoPi's first post is very, very wishy-washy and non-committal. He's "kind of" suspicious of several players, but doesn't commit to anything - much like o.Golden_ne played earlier. His main suspect is Vivax, although he repeatedly adds that Vivax might equally well be a bad townie (how non-committal can one get...?). Even though he thinks Vivax has a good chance of flipping town, he just goes with the consensus opinion and wants to lynch Vivax anyway.
The first two are posts of Golden, I had no influence on them and can merely say that I would have disagreed with the way he posted, but I cannot do anything about it. So let's go on to answer your points on my actual post.
It is my opening post, I share some of my scum-suspicion and follow it through with pushing for a Vivax lynch and succeed in it? How can you say that I go with the consensus opinion when I was the first one who brought back a Vivax lynch as option to the thread? Just reread day 2 and tell me that I am non-comittal...
On June 04 2012 01:53 ShiaoPi wrote: What confuses me right now is that heist seems to pop up as a sure scumread for some people out of the sudden, he was no where near suspicion in day1 only after solstice posted his case pressure mounted up. So let's take a look at solstice's case:
The first topic of the case depends heavily on the town-read solstice got from Vivax. Furthermore it is worth to note that heist's suspicions of Vivax stem from his "100%-townread" he got on sciberbia. This is something which seems highly suspicious to me as well. I do not deny that sciberbia is a high townread for me too, but NOBODY is confirmed town until the flip. Naturally you can put that on a case of bad townie, but still it is weird. I can understand why he kind of tunnels Vivax from this point on. Furthermore it deals with his general playstyle in the first half of day 1. I do not see inconsistencies there. He scumhunts Vivax and (to a lesser degree) Unforgiven as well as pointing out the totally useless guy in superouman.
Solstice's case continues with the lynch: He claims to see inconsistency and scummotivation in his play. I frankly said do not agree. Heist enters as soon as ange returns and wants to see more from her (like pretty much everyone) and then plays the waiting game. Unforgiven does weird posts in that time so I can see him jumping on him as he was suspicious of him anyway. His voting pattern seems pretty clear. His vote on superouman was part-pressure, part-incentive for other people to vote him off instead of ange, as he switches he simply goes to unforgiven as his next best scumread. He even states that he does not vote for suki as he reads as town to him, his "yelling" at vivax is something totally conceivable, take a look at vivax' post it screams stupidity he still does not believe that suki is scum but votes him anyway?! The so called "uselessness" of the counter-case on unforgiven can be put into doubt from my point of view. Until suki's flip everyone had reservations of unforgiven due to his play and therer was momentum building on it as well. And his "late" voting can be explained that he simply did not believe suki is scum, which he stated several times. He stuck by his reads, which seems okay to me.
So much for my townread on heist.
He defends heist from being lynched, much like he defended suki earlier. The one thing that really screams Mafia here is this: he uses many of the exact same arguments to validate his desire to lynch me that actually applied to heist as well - but when he talks about heist, he trashes/ignores those same arguments completely!!! This glaring contradiction can only be explained by both heist and ShiaoPi being Mafia. If he was town, there's no way he would use the same arguments to accuse me that he earlier defended heist from.
Where did I use the same arguments defending heist and pushing you? I am explaining my townread in this post as was requested by sciberbia. Compare my townread with the case on you, where are the similarities? I see no contradiction.
On June 05 2012 06:49 sciberbia wrote: Well, it looks like Vivax is being lynched. I hope you guys were right about him, but I have a bad feeling about this one.
@ShiaoPi you think he will flip town now?
I am now confused as hell. I don't believe scum would be that suicidal but right now my read on him is now: WTF?! No Idea
After Vivax self-votes (which is definitely not something townies would/should do), ShiaoPi immediately loses all his (already almost non-existent) commitment for pushing Vivax. He tries to make himself look like he's not to blame for the lynch: after all, he has a town/neutral read on Vivax... Who could blame him for just consolidating to prevent a no-lynch? Win-win!
I cannot understand how far you have to twist the events of day2, I was one of the leading guys pushing Vivax and vivax's selfvote confused me so I said that in the thread. I am neither unvoting (as unforgiven had suggested at that moment) nor saying go lynch somebody else.
On June 08 2012 05:24 ShiaoPi wrote: Well I will not switch my vote on heist. If you really only want one of eishi/heist then I say go with eishi, but no chance to convince you on Xatalos?
Again wishy-washy and doesn't commit to anything. Wants to lynch Eishi_Ki or me (town & town) instead of heist. He might have even succeeded and won the game for Mafia, if it weren't for some good calls, especially by austinmcc.
How is that wishy-washy? I keep pushing for you even say that I will not switch my vote? How is that non-comittal? The 2nd part of the post was merely me saying that in the scenario Milton shared with lynching either heist or eishi, I would want to go after eishi, since heist was a townread to me.
Well, that's pretty much it. There's very likely more Mafia agenda elsewhere in his filter, but even a part of this case should be enough to convince anyone he's Mafia - and all this together makes it basically impossible for him NOT to be Mafia...
How does my case make it impossible for me not to be mafia? I am pushing my agenda of lynching the scummiest person to me, which is Xatalos.
To all other townies reading this. Tell me why would a townie defend himself like this? Most of it is pretty weak as I have answered them. He tries to discredit me instead of dissolving my arguments and points against him.
What's wrong with making a case against you, instead of getting stuck on those arguments of your case we agreed to disagree on? How is it just "discrediting" to make the first actual case against you? I already dissolved some of your arguments, some of them are a matter of opinion which are useless to argue about, and some of them are so clearly wrong (like me wanting to "mislynch" heist all game...) that they're not even worth arguing about. I don't think there's anything more I can add to dissolve those remaining arguments of yours that you would never revert anyway (such as me creating a better & more active discussion atmosphere being "scummy"... what??).
The most disturbing point about this post is that you just flat-out dismiss all the evidence of o.Golden_ne being Mafia, as if it had no relevance to you. It most certainly does - exactly as much as your own posts. But let's move on to your own posts for argument's sake:
- You most definitely sheeped the consensus by going for Vivax. After suki flipped, the majority was for lynching Vivax, especially including the highest town read who had just got the first Mafia lynched (Ange777). It was pretty obvious that Vivax would be the lynch for Day 2 at the time where you named him your main suspect. Not to mention o.Golden_ne's obvious sheeping of both s0Lstice and Miltonkram during Day 1 (and not adding anything of his own).
- You accuse me of switching to Unforgiven_ve (my main suspect from early Day 1) after Ange777 started showing signs of towniness. When heist did the exact same thing, you say it's perfectly logical and reasonable. You accuse me of being the last to vote for suki (even though I most likely typed the vote earlier than heist). When heist voted for suki second-last, you say he "simply stuck by his reads, which seems okay to me". These are just few examples of your screaming inconsistencies regarding your attitude to very similar events (the only real difference being who posted it). There's just no way you would have such a change in your views towards the same events if you were town - and actually honest with your reads.
- Now you're just mispresenting what I said. I never said you wanted a no-lynch, I just said you completely changed your read on Vivax - for a very weak reason. Why would you do that unless you had no faith in Vivax being Mafia in the first place?
- The reason you're wishy-washy is that you're just asking for a chance to do *anything* (even lynching Eishi_Ki or a no-lynch) just to avoid lynching heist. There's no way you'd be so willing to do almost anything except lynch heist, unless you're teamed with him. Especially a no-lynch would be very bad in that situation, almost ensuring a Mafia victory (just changing the situation from 5 town vs 2 Mafia -> 3 town vs 2 Mafia, a very comfortable situation for Mafia).
On June 09 2012 05:01 ShiaoPi wrote: I am talking against a wall with Xatalos (who would have guessed?)
To everyone else still in this game: May I hear your thoughts on this? The only way we can still win this is if we get scum tomorrow and not mislynch.
Just a moment ago you said I'm not "trying to dissolve your arguments" hard enough, yet you give up completely on arguing once I respond. Where is your logic?
He tries to discredit me instead of dissolving my arguments and points against him.
Its what all mafia (and bad townies) did every thime i posted something (LOLZ LEARN SUM ENGRISH) ... one of my main reasons to suspect xatalos
So you suspect anyone (austinmcc, me) who thinks your play is confusing? The better course of action would be to read filters and state your reasoning. Didn't it cross your mind that ShiaoPi might just be trying to win your vote by not questioning your plays?
On June 09 2012 05:16 ShiaoPi wrote: my logic is that you constantly misread what I am writing and as you are (naturally) hellbent on lynching me there is nothing I can do with further arguing with you besides cluttering up the thread.
What I can do now is wait and see. Milton should come online soon, austin should also be able to post soon.
Hmmm. If you can't defend from those points, just say so clearly. I agree though that I want to see Miltonkram and austinmcc returning before the deadline. Either of them might be shot soon, and if they don't get to say their opinions, there'll be less to talk about tomorrow.
Back, sorry for being away for a bit. Unforgiven_ve...? Hm. I would have guessed Miltonkram, but whatever, there are just too many layers of mindgames. So not wasting effort on that.
On June 09 2012 07:08 ShiaoPi wrote: Actually right now thinking about it, maybe I tunneled too hard on Xatalos. Milton also stands out in general inactivity, lack of cases and content. Something to consider for any of you?
I really, really doubt it. He has been very open with his opinions and pushed heist with commitment. Although if he is, it would be pretty much GG and well played, I guess. No chance he would be the lynch today! Anyway, it's very unlikely.
I'm going to follow up on my initial case and vote for ShiaoPi. I don't know how it could be anyone else, really.
I'd like to see some sort of analysis on how the game went... Maybe from Toad? I feel pretty good now, although I had some luck on my side (2 modkills, ShiaoPi misreading heist...). Although I feel pretty sad that suki was lynched Day 1 and heist was basically a "confirmed Mafia" for most of the game. It would have been more interesting if our whole team had been more hidden and there weren't any modkills :/ Anyways, a really fun game! I can't play anymore for some time (going to military service in less than a month now) but I'll be sure to play again later on
On June 09 2012 08:26 sciberbia wrote: NOOOOOOOOOOOO I'm so upset about this. gg xatalos and mafia
Sorry sciberbia... If you read the MafiaQT, you'll see that I picked you on purpose to "buddy" and make you blind to me being Mafia A viable tactic, although a bit unfair for you. It worked very well in my previous game as Mafia, so I used it in this game to a very large extent (Vivax, sciberbia, austinmcc, Miltonkram...).
Btw, I encourage you all to read the MafiaQT. Some really funny moments there! :D
On June 09 2012 08:57 ShiaoPi wrote: Thanks solstice at least a bit of consolation I feel I got really badly set up by Goldens post though. Sooo annoying to be unable to respond to these, guess that's the downside of replacing. and I almost forgot to thank marvellosity for some great coaching!
To the more veteran players was there still a chance to convince town on the last day? I felt really frustrated and helpless
Indeed o.Golden_ne wasn't the easiest player to replace... You got a bit unlucky in that regard. You were in a very bad spot in the end, but maybe you could have pulled something off (why would you shoot Unforgiven_ve if you were Mafia? why would you link yourself so strongly with heist if you were both Mafia?).
On June 09 2012 08:55 Xatalos wrote: Haha, I'm surprised the ObsQT didn't figure me out until the very end. It was pretty obvious though after I shot Unforgiven_ve...
I had you figured out sooner than that ;D
Here's a PM to Marvel:
To: marvellosity [ Profile | Buddy | Report ] Subject: Re: Newbie Mini XV Date: 6/8/12 09:32 I must confess I as a spectator I haven't been as studious.
Austin- I'm fairly certain he is town, based on ange's actions against suki. Plus he could have caused a no-lynch day 3 without much effort or risk, but chose not to. Must be town.
Milton- I think he is town as well. I've seen him play scum and this doesn't look like that. He has made a case on Ange that was not without sound reasoning at the time. He pursued Heist when he could have just as easily blended in on another target if he was scum.
Unforgiven- I am perplexed. He has reduced himself to insulting people and just giving orders like 'do this, do that.' If he is scum, he bussed both of his teammates (very unlikely). What's more, he was the first guy to attack suki. Despite his confusing play, I think he must be town.
That leaves ShiaoPi and Xatalos.
The obvious answer is ShiaoPi based on how he refused to vote for heist. Also, he replaced Golden, who weakly tunneled someone who I read as strong town. Making a case on Vivax is easy peasy for scum, because he was playing recklessly/aggressively. That said, he really was trying to hunt scum. He made reads and pursued them, though his conclusions always appeared wrong to me. He has been constant and steadfast in his defense of heist, which would be REALLY odd if they were scum teammates. My conclusion here is that he is a misguided townie. I've also seen his townie play, and this looks pretty similar.
I think the last scum is Xatalos. I think he wisely bussed heist, and got some mad townie cred for doing so. With people like Unforgiven being generally confusing and anti-town, and ShiaoPi strongly defending a guy who just flipped scum, he can bus heist and watch while those two get lynched next. He was the last to vote for suki, and was, like heist, pushing Unforgiven to suck votes away from suki on day 1.
His direct interactions with heist are also strange. He votes for him on the day vivax is going to be lynched, but votes vivax in the end. He gets town cred for voting heist when he eventually flipped scum, and doesn't get a lot of blame for lynching vivax since he was a driving force for it. This is an excellent bus, he doesn't hurt his teammate too badly and also helps himself a lot. Also, over the course of the game he was posting a lot of non-content content. His only real scum hunt was Unforgiven...another very easy case to make with the language barrier and his confusing posts.
so yea, I'm going with Xatalos
It's a good thing I shot you first then, don't you think?
On June 05 2012 11:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: To austincc. His post shows a pretty standard townie play, his reasoning defending suki were valid for a Newbie townie, his actitude and his defense were good enoguh for me, the problem here is We are dealing whit a bunch of a sheeps who let mafia (read heist- xatalos) lead their way of thought, They are triying since the begginingg of the game to take town leadership whit lame posts and triying to look helpful, their starting strategy (I'm sure) Was to be in the spotlight and when the town chooses a innocent just let them go for it whitout commiting too much. Compare day1 and day2 around Lynch time. See their voting pattern.
Unforgiven just called for a town leader. if you have the time heist, i would try to take up this role. you shouldnt say that you want to be this leader, but you should make yourself it by making some analysis that looks pretty and by commenting on and criticizing other people. Try to sound nice thoughg, very important especially in a newbie game, as you can get lynched for being mean.
Heh... You were pretty much 100% correct all along, but you kept insulting people and throwing random one liners, so nobody listened to you. You need to retain your reading skills and seriously work on how you convey your reads...
On June 09 2012 08:57 ShiaoPi wrote: Thanks solstice at least a bit of consolation I feel I got really badly set up by Goldens post though. Sooo annoying to be unable to respond to these, guess that's the downside of replacing. and I almost forgot to thank marvellosity for some great coaching!
To the more veteran players was there still a chance to convince town on the last day? I felt really frustrated and helpless
Xatalos did a really good job the last couple of days. The only thing that was lacking in his play was the late bus-timing d1. If people would have looked back at d1 and how votes ended up being I feel like it could have been possible. Convincing people to lynch Xatalos based on what he posted seemed pretty hard. Especially the stuff later on because he bussed heist hardcore and people probably ended up having different reads on him based on exactly what they were looking at.
It was 4 people alive, which means 3 people needed to lynch. A NL might have been possible but that would have given Xatalos the possiblity to shoot into someone who is generally more willing to lynch him as well. So in general with only 3 townies alive and 3 votes needed for a lynch I really doubt town stood a chance the last day anyways.
Yeah, I agree. The votes during Day 1 were the key to figuring me out. That was my big mistake, not bussing suki when I needed to Although I had some luck: Vivax behaved pretty much the same way as me, although more suspiciously, even though he was town.
On June 09 2012 09:17 austinmcc wrote: Maybe I was being me again and making it overly complicated, but I figured you'd both shoot Unforgiven.
You needed to get him off your back and needed to eliminate someone who said he wasn't looking at ShiaoPi. Figured ShiaoPi would make the same shot because he came out looking so bad that his best bet was to keep making you seem scummy, so he had to shoot Unforgiven as well and start throwing out WIFOM. Which he...didn't do.
On June 05 2012 11:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: To austincc. His post shows a pretty standard townie play, his reasoning defending suki were valid for a Newbie townie, his actitude and his defense were good enoguh for me, the problem here is We are dealing whit a bunch of a sheeps who let mafia (read heist- xatalos) lead their way of thought, They are triying since the begginingg of the game to take town leadership whit lame posts and triying to look helpful, their starting strategy (I'm sure) Was to be in the spotlight and when the town chooses a innocent just let them go for it whitout commiting too much. Compare day1 and day2 around Lynch time. See their voting pattern.
Heist is mafia, I'm 75% sure about xatalos
Nova_Terra 05-31-2012 01:30 AM ET (US)
Unforgiven just called for a town leader. if you have the time heist, i would try to take up this role. you shouldnt say that you want to be this leader, but you should make yourself it by making some analysis that looks pretty and by commenting on and criticizing other people. Try to sound nice thoughg, very important especially in a newbie game, as you can get lynched for being mean.
Heh... You were pretty much 100% correct all along, but you kept insulting people and throwing random one liners, so nobody listened to you. You need to retain your reading skills and seriously work on how you convey your reads...
Well, i had to login a lot form my phone, and honestly i lost interest at some point, i think it was after VIvax was lynched, you can show the way to someone, but you cant walk it for them.
You didn't really contribute before that either, though. You just announced your opinions as fact and left it at that. In hindsight, you were right, but you HAVE to convince the rest. It's just not enough to have the correct reads to win in this game. Insulting them and posting confusing stuff only turns them against you. And where did you get your reads anyway? Through OMGUS? I have to admit you acted as a scum-magnet, we all tried to get you lynched
On June 01 2012 09:23 Unforgiven_ve wrote: The ridiculous aggresiveness im getting from Xatalos got me thinking about 2 things, he's just a really bad townie triying to use his ubber skills...or just a mafia playing in a pretty risky way (metagame uh?) I confess deep inside me i think its the first option, just a bad townie, contradiction and all, thats what my personal experience dictates.
HAHAHAHAHA!!!!! :D This is so true by the way... I played in a "pretty risky way (metagame uh?)" exactly as you thought
On June 09 2012 09:17 austinmcc wrote: Maybe I was being me again and making it overly complicated, but I figured you'd both shoot Unforgiven.
You needed to get him off your back and needed to eliminate someone who said he wasn't looking at ShiaoPi. Figured ShiaoPi would make the same shot because he came out looking so bad that his best bet was to keep making you seem scummy, so he had to shoot Unforgiven as well and start throwing out WIFOM. Which he...didn't do.
I thought throwing out WIFOM would have looked like grasping at straws :D
Well, basically yeah. Your fate was almost sealed when heist flipped. I'm not sure what I would've done in your situation, although I wouldn't have wanted to get there in the first place (defending alone someone whom everyone else thought was Mafia..?). It didn't help that you inherited such a bad filter from o.Golden_ne...
On June 02 2012 10:33 s0Lstice wrote: This is the last I'm going to say on this. It has nothing to do with this Mafia game. I'm even going to spoiler it. Unforgiven + Show Spoiler +
Do you see anybody else here calling other people names? Want to know why it's just you? Because you're being an asshole. Assholes insult people, and then tell them not to take it personal, like that makes it ok. This being a game doesn't give you license to be condescending and disrespectful. In fact, it's the opposite. If you want respect, you show respect. I can't speak for everyone else, but for me, you have made this game less fun with your recent posts.
He was spot on.
Agreed... Although, in a way, Unforgiven_ve destroyed some of the atmopshere -> made our job easier, it still wasn't enjoyable. I would take subtle disruption of the thread (by Mafia) over insults and useless one liners (by town) any day.
I was quite busy playing myself while hosting this and only checked for what's in the posts while reading them really fast Haven't kept up with why people did things that much
Marv probably has a better idea on what actually happened lol
Okay Well, some other veteran wanting to make an analysis? Although it would have been most useful right now, before many of the players leave the thread and never look back
On June 09 2012 09:42 ShiaoPi wrote: Well it should not trust my reads too much I guess. But moving away from heist would have seemed really scummy too (at least in my opinion) so I just thought stick with it until he goes totally bonkers/scummy >_>
Heh... Damned if you do, damned if you don't How do you get into these situations in the first place? haha
Btw, I was considering shooting Miltonkram for a while. In hindsight, I'm VERY glad I decided to shoot Unforgiven_ve I was worried about the WIFOM after Unforgiven_ve's night kill, but it was just that, WIFOM. It wouldn't almost certainly threaten the ShiaoPi mislynch. You two were already convinced he was Mafia at that point.
On June 09 2012 06:58 Miltonkram wrote: Xatalos: Town- If you're asking me to believe that he's scum you're also asking me to believe that he made these plays. (I'm hypothetically referring to him as scum in this list) - He started pressure on Unforgiven. This is a ballsy move. Putting follow up pressure on players is much more typical of scum play. - He bussed heist D2 immediately after his scumbuddy, suki, got lynched. This is another really ballsy move. - He immediately returned his pressure back to heist after our mislynch on Vivax. The fallout after a mislynch is a good time for scum to try and lay low hoping that voting patterns might incriminate another player. Xatalos did not allow this.
These are not common plays to make as scum. If he is scum then those plays were extremely risky. I just don't believe it. Xatalos, if you are scum, I tip my hat to you. You've made some tough calls.
I approve of this post! xD Haha, I'm so happy all my risky plays paid off in the end!
Too bad suki and heist aren't around now. Well, they'll have a pleasant surprise when they read this thread Both sacrificed their lives, especially heist, for us to create that ideal endgame scenario. It was all worth it in the end
On June 09 2012 11:47 s0Lstice wrote: Ironic that Xatalos even cautioned against connection assumptions on day 1. Good advice! Wish I had remembered.
Yep Connections are really too WIFOM to base your reads on (Mafia can distance each other, defend each other, bus each other, push the same lynch, push different lynches... you never really know how they're connected!).
On June 09 2012 06:58 Miltonkram wrote: Xatalos: Town- If you're asking me to believe that he's scum you're also asking me to believe that he made these plays. (I'm hypothetically referring to him as scum in this list) - He started pressure on Unforgiven. This is a ballsy move. Putting follow up pressure on players is much more typical of scum play. - He bussed heist D2 immediately after his scumbuddy, suki, got lynched. This is another really ballsy move. - He immediately returned his pressure back to heist after our mislynch on Vivax. The fallout after a mislynch is a good time for scum to try and lay low hoping that voting patterns might incriminate another player. Xatalos did not allow this.
These are not common plays to make as scum. If he is scum then those plays were extremely risky. I just don't believe it. Xatalos, if you are scum, I tip my hat to you. You've made some tough calls.
I approve of this post! xD Haha, I'm so happy all my risky plays paid off in the end!
You have no idea how hard I facepalmed after I saw the endgame post XD
Oh well, you live and learn. I think if we hadn't had 2 modkills town might have won. Not taking anything away from you Xatalos. I'm taking notes from you on how to play next time I get picked for scum. Really impressive play in my eyes!
Thanks Although you should also note that I made mistakes earlier in the game: defended suki visibly (should have bussed in that situation), moderated the thread too much compared to real contributions (look at sciberbia or s0Lstice, they played town correctly), jumped too easily to switch from heist to Vivax (should have shown more commitment to my Mafia read on heist)... Don't make such mistakes and you should be good to go, haha
On June 09 2012 11:28 sciberbia wrote: My somewhat brief, biased, and bitter thoughts on the game: - 4 chances to lynch 3 mafia with no blue information. ~11% chance of winning with random lynches - In retrospect, scum would have won easily if they just bussed each other a lot and gained townie cred - We got really lucky by nailing suki day 1 and having both mafia try to defend him. This gave us a chance - imo, using our one allowed mislynch on vivax was bad on our part. This is the only play I really regret and you could argue this lost us the game. - finally (and narrowly) got heist for his scummy D1 play - Xatalos did well to keep his filter looking reasonably townie. imo, the filter of golden/shiaopi looked far scummier and even miltonkram didn't look much more townie (if at all). - Unforgiven was spot on with every single read and was the only reason we had any chance in the endgame - Kill of unforgiven should have been given more thought on the last day. I think that completely refusing to analyze NKs is a mistake. All 3 NK's were quite telling this game.
Honestly I thought town played quite well. Only 2 mislynches even with no blue help. That's mainly why I'm frustrated by the loss. Not trying to take anything away from mafia - they played a fine game too.
Yeah - I was really surprised by how well the town played! Especially during Day 1, the discussion was extremely active and focused, compared to almost any other game I've played/seen. But the same can be said for Mafia - suki played extremely well for her first game of Mafia, heist played well despite having a long break from Mafia, and of course I managed to convince everyone ShiaoPi was Mafia and win the game xD Haha... Overall, I think this might be at least the newbie game of highest quality I've played/seen so far.
The sad part about this game was, as you said, the modkills and lurking by some players. Had Superouman and Eishi_Ki actually played the game they signed up for, there would have been an additional lynch to use on me after ShiaoPi flipped. BUT I think it's stupid to think like that. If we go to such a hypothetical situation, we could also imagine that suki not being offline for the end of Day 1 would have probably saved her from the lynch (or at least made it easier for us to coordinate and not be exposed like that). If heist hadn't been offline for most of the game (except right before deadlines, haha!!), we might have gotten another mislynch before I had to bus heist. So, it's (IMO) stupid to assume that if the players had been more active, town would have won in the end, since the same can be said for the activity of our Mafia team. All in all, if every player in the game had been active, I'm pretty certain suki wouldn't have been the Day 1 lynch (or at least the lynch wouldn't have exposed me and heist) and the game after that would have been VERY different in many ways.
Indeed, the night kills were very telling. It's good not to base your reads on them, but they should be taken into account at least.
On June 09 2012 15:56 Release wrote: Xatalos early game was poor. I thought it was him, Vivax and someone. But this is just my speculation from reading the first 20 pages.
Quoted this because I agreed on Xatalos. Actually I helped coach town and scum this game, because I pinned Xatalos as scum during the first day and PMed him.
It was superhard for town on the last day because ShiaoPi's reads were just so unfortunate and it's really hard to look beyond that.
austin - I'd love to talk some with you at some point. You remind me of myself when I started a couple of months back - logical and trying hard but not quite getting the reads. it'll get better though, so stick around ^^
unforgiven - your play was terrible despite being correct. Being correct is only part of the battle, the rest of it is convincing the rest of town by making good cases, and in this you failed utterly and miserably.
Don't brag too much, hey You only figured out I was scum because you helped me in a previous game as town... And you also thought Unforgiven_ve was scum... I agree though on Unforgiven_ve, good reads aren't everything, you need much more!
On June 10 2012 01:51 marvellosity wrote: tsk, well he'd said something that i thought was awful (can't rememer now). yes, it was merely a meta read on you, not claiming elite scumhunting skillz or anything
On June 10 2012 08:46 sciberbia wrote: @Xatalos, miltonkram I did explicitly think to myself during N1 that it was a mistake not to force Xatalos to give more defense of suki. When Xatalos said, " I got the feeling suki's been pretty focused on hunting Mafia", I thought Xatalos was wrong, because suki's filter didn't look very interested in hunting mafia to me. I should have told Xatalos to carefully read suki's filter and elaborate on the defense.
The way things went down, I thought it most likely that Xatalos didn't seriously study suki's filter, and simply made a wrong read. So I didn't hold it against him too much.
Even with hindsight, I think Xatalos's filter looks slightly townie overall. So kudos Xatalos. Next time we'll set your limit at 2 bad reads. Then you get lynched :p
I might have made a mistake by playing such a townie Mafia... Now when I'm really town, everyone will assume I'm Mafia anyways! xD Damn........
On June 10 2012 09:21 sciberbia wrote: @Xatalos What are you complaining about? If you're town, all you have to do is identify all the scum, and organize a lynch on each of them in turn. As long as you follow these simple instructions, we won't lynch you. Maybe we'll even allow you 1 bad read..
On June 10 2012 19:58 marvellosity wrote: austin and especially sciberbia - you are bang on about the night kill.
Remember I told you about my newbie game austin? I got out of lylo almost purely by arguing about the night kill.
I can't emphasise enough how good sciberbia's post is this page. Night kills should always be kept in mind. They do lend themselves to wifom, but especially at the end they provide information. As he said, who would ShiaoPi kill if he were scum? Certainly not unforgiven. For that alone I would have lynched Xatalos.
To Xatalos - that's why I tried to suggest to you that you go with austin and not unforgiven. You claimed scum with your final night kill.
That's a good point in general, but doesn't really apply to this specific situation (in my opinion). I had intentionally urged Miltonkram and austinmcc to make their opinions clear before the night deadline - apparently to "help" them by having their opinions known before they might be killed, but I had a more sinister motive...
Once they had gone through the filters, read the cases, and finally formed their opinions (before Unforgiven_ve would be shot) they were set on lynching ShiaoPi as soon as the deadline passed. It didn't matter anymore that it wouldn't make sense for ShiaoPi to shoot Unforgiven_ve: they just dismissed it as WIFOM by ShiaoPi (meant to make them second-guess).
On the other hand, if they had waited until the deadline to form their final opinion, it might have gone differently. But since they both were online and willing to announce their lynch of choice *before* the night kill, I was pretty certain they wouldn't bend on their opinions anymore!
In this situation, it would make no sense to shoot austinmcc. Unforgiven_ve had already said he would be willing to vote for only me / austinmcc. There's no way he would have voted for ShiaoPi. If I had shot austinmcc, ShiaoPi and Unforgiven_ve would have immediately voted for me. I and Miltonkram would have voted for ShiaoPi. It would have been a stalemate with neither side attaining the majority.
Unforgiven_ve was extremely stubborn and wouldn't listen to any reasoning by me or Miltonkram. He wouldn't state any reasoning himself either: he would just vote for me and continue to post insults and random one liners. ShiaoPi would most certainly not vote for himself either in that situation. That leaves two options:
A) Miltonkram bends to the peer pressure and votes for me. I lose.
B) Miltonkram doesn't bend. The day ends with a no-lynch. I now must shoot Unforgiven_ve or lose, but Miltonkram will think twice as hard about the night kill compared to if I had just shot Unforgiven_ve earlier. I might win or I might lose, but the game takes a lot longer and my chance for victory is smaller. There's also a bigger chance that someone finds more scummy stuff about my filter and Miltonkram gets convinced I'm actually Mafia. Town has more time to discuss and consider the options.
On June 10 2012 22:50 Vivax wrote: I'm kinda disappointed how ShiaoPi immediately gave up in the end tho. He didn't understand why I voted for myself at first, but at least I've tried to defend myself several times before doing so.
He really had most responsibility there knowing that he's town. I'm not taking away credit from him since he posted a case against Xata before the unforgiven NK. But that NK had a lot of implications, and he resigned immediately and voted for himself without using the NK to push another case.
Hard to tell if others would have switched their vote even with a super solid case. Everyone was convinced of a scum ShiaoPi in the end.
Not blaming it on him alone, most of us made gross mistakes, but I kinda feel like town still stood a chance there
On the other hand, Miltonkram and austinmcc would have been even more suspicious of ShiaoPi (if he had tried to WIFOM with the night kill, I mean). It was pretty much GG when Miltonkram and austinmcc made their opinions clear right before the deadline. After that, they were set on lynching ShiaoPi, and it would have required a massive blunder by me to lose... Pretty much
On June 11 2012 02:31 sciberbia wrote: Just thought of a simpler way to state this.
You guys basically made the following announcement to mafia If unforgiven is NK'd we will lynch shiaopi If milton is NK'd we will (quite possibly) lynch Xatalos
If you're going to actually announce this to mafia, you can't just blindly follow through on your promise or mafia will manipulate you like a puppet (this is what happened)
You either should have A) as a group, decided on your final lynch before the NK
or more realistically B) been unpredictable in how you analyzed the NK
or C) not announce your reads before the NK
Option A was pretty much impossible in that situation. Unforgiven_ve would never listen to anyone other than himself, and Miltonkram was very convinced that ShiaoPi was Mafia. austinmcc might have been vulnerable to persuasion, but he was also pretty sure ShiaoPi was Mafia. There would be no consensus lynch with such radical differences in opinion.
Option B sounds very reasonable. Town would have probably won the game if it didn't condemn WIFOM and NK analysis as completely useless right away. This allowed us to kill our most dangerous opposers without fear. More importantly, not being so opposed to WIFOM would have made it impossible for me to win the endgame scenario. I considered shooting Miltonkram or austinmcc for WIFOM reasons, which would have made it much harder (or nearly impossible) for me to get ShiaoPi lynched... But I didn't really have to, because everyone hated WIFOM! Following a strict policy makes it so much easier to manipulate the game without fear of consequences.
Option C is... interesting. Although, realistically, not useful in this case. I already could tell from Unforgiven_ve's earlier posts that he would come after me instead of ShiaoPi, and both Miltonkram and austinmcc had made it clear that they linked heist&ShiaoPi as a potential Mafia team. They didn't really even need to post their reads before the deadline... I just urged them to do that in order to lock them even more into their set opinions. I agree, though, that if everyone said something like "okay, I won't speak anything during night to make the NK harder to choose", it would have made it harder for me to decide. Perhaps someone (austinmcc, specifically) had changed his opinion during the night...? Should I shoot him instead? But I would have still ended up shooting Unforgiven_ve, so only option B is really useful
Overall, this was a game of very high quality (especially for a newbie game!). I doubt many towns (even ones consisting of veteran players) would *almost* win the game with no blue roles and only ONE mislynch to afford. I was most inspired by the play of sciberbia, s0Lstice and Ange777 - a nice balance of good reads and pro-town effort. austinmcc clearly put in effort, but his reads were always wrong The opposite was true for Unforgiven_ve, who had the best reads, but apparently didn't care about the game. suki deserves a special mention for playing so well for her first game.
A bit sad that so many were replaced/modkilled, but what can you do... Bad luck for town, and some bad luck for Mafia as well (suki offline at the most critical moment). Let's hope everyone is active in future games
On June 11 2012 08:26 Miltonkram wrote: @ sciberbia Note taken. From here on out I won't immediately discount evidence just because it's WIFOM. I'm still not sure I could have convinced myself that Xatalos was scum, but Unforgiven dying would have certainly given me more pause.
Do you think I should have appeared less certain during the final night cycle? At the time I was fairly certain of ShiaoPi but I still had a nagging suspicion about Xatalos. If I had made it less obvious that ShiaoPi was my target for the next day I could have forced a few decent cases/posts out of Xatalos. Do you think that would have been a better play on my part?
Yeah, it's a common trap to think someone is town and then ignore him. You should have put some pressure on me and gathered more evidence to determine if I'm really town. The lynch was obviously going to be between me and ShiaoPi, so the more discussion/information before the final decision, the better. If I was really town, I wouldn't have minded some additional pressure to prove my innocence.
EPT
I'll look forward to reading your analysis on the ObsQT though, haha! Maybe I'll ask for some advice, too, especially if I'm town.
) but to all the rest of you, I am just wishing that you consider my thoughts, cases and posts based on their merit.
