EPTNewbie Mini XV - Page 3
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
- 4 chances to lynch 3 mafia with no blue information. ~11% chance of winning with random lynches - In retrospect, scum would have won easily if they just bussed each other a lot and gained townie cred - We got really lucky by nailing suki day 1 and having both mafia try to defend him. This gave us a chance - imo, using our one allowed mislynch on vivax was bad on our part. This is the only play I really regret and you could argue this lost us the game. - finally (and narrowly) got heist for his scummy D1 play - Xatalos did well to keep his filter looking reasonably townie. imo, the filter of golden/shiaopi looked far scummier and even miltonkram didn't look much more townie (if at all). - Unforgiven was spot on with every single read and was the only reason we had any chance in the endgame - Kill of unforgiven should have been given more thought on the last day. I think that completely refusing to analyze NKs is a mistake. All 3 NK's were quite telling this game. Honestly I thought town played quite well. Only 2 mislynches even with no blue help. That's mainly why I'm frustrated by the loss. Not trying to take anything away from mafia - they played a fine game too. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I think that, in an optimal metagame, you adjust your own reads by giving a bit of weight to the reads of people who were NK'd. Of course, you don't entirely base decisions off of NKs. But if you choose to always completely ignore them, mafia will just always kill people with good reads and influence the game in their favor. That's not a metagame in equilibrium. Given that metagame, town should start to put a lot of stock into NKs, which would force mafia to start being less predictable, which would force town to only put a little stock in NKs, which is a more balanced metagame. This is why putting stock into the NK of unforgiven makes sense. It was clear to me that whichever 3 townies were remaining on the last day might WIFOM around a bit, but ultimately would not switch their reads based on the NK. I think this was clear to everyone, which is both why we got screwed over, and why you can consider the NK of unforgiven evidence against Xatalos. It was pretty obvious that the final lynch was going to be between Xatalos and Shiaopi. If neither of them were mafia, town had pretty much no chance, so you might as well assume it was one of them. Here were the primary targets: Xatalos: targets Shiaopi Milton: targets Shiaopi austinmmc: targets Shiapoi unforgiven: targets Xatalos shiapoi: targets Xatalos If we are assuming that nobody gives any weight to the NK, then a NK of milton/austinmcc will be 50% Xatalos lynch, 50% shiaopi lynch a NK of ufnorgiven will be 100% shiaopi lynch There's no way in hell that a mafia shiaopi would NK unforgiven at the end. No way. He's not going to bet the game that you guys suddenly put a ton of stock into NK analysis when you had previously shown no interest. He'd rather settle for his 50/50 chances that unforgiven would be more stubborn than miltonkram/austinmcc (not a bad bet). On the other hand, a kill of unforgiven makes perfect sense for Xatalos. Based on everyone's behavior up to the end of the game, it was a pretty safe bet that you guys were going to just say WIFOM and ignore the NK, assuring a shiaopi lynch. Hence, the NK unforgiven is good evidence against Xatalos, given our unstable metagame of always ignoring NKs The underlying problem IMO is the refusal throughout the game to analyze NKs at all. I think WIFOM is very misunderstood/misapplied there. If we had shown interest in analyzing NKs from the start, Xatalos might have thought twice about killing Unforgiven at the end. And even if he had, we might have lynched him. Admittedly, it could work against us if Shiaopi is mafia and makes the risky move to kill unforgiven. But this meta is obviously better than letting mafia control us by ignoring their NKs. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I did explicitly think to myself during N1 that it was a mistake not to force Xatalos to give more defense of suki. When Xatalos said, " I got the feeling suki's been pretty focused on hunting Mafia", I thought Xatalos was wrong, because suki's filter didn't look very interested in hunting mafia to me. I should have told Xatalos to carefully read suki's filter and elaborate on the defense. The way things went down, I thought it most likely that Xatalos didn't seriously study suki's filter, and simply made a wrong read. So I didn't hold it against him too much. Even with hindsight, I think Xatalos's filter looks slightly townie overall. So kudos Xatalos. Next time we'll set your limit at 2 bad reads. Then you get lynched :p | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
What are you complaining about? If you're town, all you have to do is identify all the scum, and organize a lynch on each of them in turn. As long as you follow these simple instructions, we won't lynch you. Maybe we'll even allow you 1 bad read.. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I think the NK on unforgiven was certainly your best move at that point, for the reasons you stated. I think I posted something in the obs QT about it before the kill. Yes, it would make me and marv more suspicious of you, but our opinions weren't the ones that counted. @marv My point is that the NK of unforgiven is evidence against Xatalos (to us) precisely because none of the remaining townies would realize it's evidence against Xatalos, even though it clearly helped Xatalos. So yes, xatalos was essentially claiming scum to the obs QT, but the remaining townies, based on their behavior and unstable metagame, were clearly going to lynch shiopi. This is what xatalos was counting on and he was right. What needed to happen from town's POV is this: miltonkram/austinmcc think to themselves: now hold on a minute. It's pretty obvious that we're going to ignore the NK. Would scum really bet the game that we suddenly put faith into NKs? Highly doubtful. So we actually should base our decision off the NK given the current meta. But Xatalos wisely gambled that milton/austinmcc would not suddenly realize the error of their ways. It's an odd situation because the metagame is unstable. See below. @all simplified hypothetical instructive scenario Imagine there are four players left heading into night phase: Unforgiven, Miltonkram, Shiaopi, and Xatalos. Assume Unforgiven and Miltonkram are confirmed innocents, that Unforgiven wants to lynch Xatalos, and that miltonkram wants to lynch shiaopi. Who does mafia xatalos kill? Here we have complete and total WIFOM. Does he kill the player accusing him or the one defending him. But as we will see, just because this is WIFOMy doesn't mean you can ignore it as a townie. The relevant question is: how do we expect the remaining townie to react to the NK? In this game, the prevailing logic seems to be "Shit this is the almighty WIFOM. Best play is to ignore WIFOM and proceed with the game as before". The problem with this logic is that if you always do this, then mafia will just NK the player accusing them, and win 100% of the time. Clearly, town's logic is bad in this scenario. You can't be so predictable and easily manipulated. You'd do much better to flip a coin on the last day, and even better to figure out how the mafia would think you would react, and to do the opposite. It's a battle of wits. WIFOM is really misunderstood and misapplied. You can't just throw out all evidence that is WIFOMy. It's all about predicting your opponent's moves while being unpredictable yourself. Don't be terrified of the term WIFOM | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
You guys basically made the following announcement to mafia If unforgiven is NK'd we will lynch shiaopi If milton is NK'd we will (quite possibly) lynch Xatalos If you're going to actually announce this to mafia, you can't just blindly follow through on your promise or mafia will manipulate you like a puppet (this is what happened) You either should have A) as a group, decided on your final lynch before the NK or more realistically B) been unpredictable in how you analyzed the NK or C) not announce your reads before the NK | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I agree option B (just reacting to he NK unpredictably) is most practical and universally applicable. @shiaopi Honestly, if you bring up the NK yourself, I think it would just make you look even more scummy, but I guess as marv said, it couldnt't have hurt. Ideally austinmcc/miltonkram would begin to question the NK themselves, but it didn't look likely that they would (which is why Xatalos killed unforgiven to begin with), so I thought you would surely be lynched no matter what you said. Based on my reads, we were honestly in serious trouble after we mislynched vivax because we couldn't afford any more mislynches, Xatalos didn't look particularly scummy, you did, and we had no blue information. IMO, the excellent scumread on Xatalos by Unforgiven was the only reason we had a chance, and we almost pulled it off, but it was a tough game to win. It was basically 6 VT vs 3 goons, but worse. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
a) Talking about your reads during the final night complicates the battle of wits. imo, this isn't necessary good or bad; it just complicates the WIFOM associated with the NK for all parties. b) As Xatalos said, forcing more posts out of the remaining mafia suspects is more likely to help than hurt. So I guess the "optimal" play is to force a ton of content out of everyone, but in this particular case I doubt that your read would have changed on Xatalos or Shiaopi, so I think you would have just been wasting time (and making me die of anxiety :p) In summary, I think your strong accusation of shiaopi during the night was neither good nor bad. IMO your mistake was on the final day. You could have won the game by assuming the following: 1) mafia would expect the NK to have no effect on anyone's read 2) a mafia shiaopi would expect a NK of you/austinmcc to have much better prospects than a NK of unforgiven 3) a mafia xatalos would expect only a NK of unforgiven to give him a great chance at winning 4) realize that neither mafia would expect you to figure all this out and base your vote off of it 5) lynch Xatalos Obviously, it's easy for me to say all this postgame, and it's not easy to concretely justify these assumptions, especially 1 and 4. The issue is probably that you weren't convinced about 1. So mafia (Xatalos) accurately predicted your actions whereas you didn't accurately predict his. Hence his deservedly winning the battle of wits and with it the game. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On June 12 2012 01:11 Radfield wrote: Fire it up prplhz! Yea should be any time now. I'll be spamming F5 like there's no tomorrow :p @suki Looks you got a spot reserved for you. I'm jealous! | ||
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