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On June 01 2012 00:08 Unforgiven_ve wrote: The only thing i feel is a overeager feeling from you to start a bandwagon, seeing as we still have one whole day left i see this unnecessary.
It's the opposite, really. I've been very patient with you, considering your horrible first posts, long absence, and now this angry and useless response. Why don't you do something to convince everyone of your innocence instead of dodging the issue?
On June 01 2012 00:57 Superouman wrote:This, i don't understand why he could be a "confirmed" townie, even the most townie-looking person can be toying with us
Cattivik has indeed posted some questionable statements. It's still not enough to make me think he is Mafia. He was the very first poster to push the Mafia hunt, to call out lurkers, to call out suspicious behaviour. If that isn't town play, I don't know what is. Some stupid statements like "confirmed town" don't yet make someone Mafia.
More importantly, I want to see something from you, Superouman. So far you have just posted generalities and useless banter. Do you think Cattivik is Mafia? Do you think Unforgiven_ve is Mafia? Do you have any other opinions?
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I have to go offline until the evening, but there's a lot I want to comment on then. I must say I'm not as certain anymore about Unforgiven_ve's guiltiness after reading his latest post. What do you think about that post, s0Lstice and Suki? Did you get that slight townie read from it?
Superouman and Ange777, I REALLY want to hear something from you both soon. If Unforgiven_ve keeps up this style of posting, it would be better to lynch either of you (to at least certainly limit the pool of suspicious and useless lurkers/coasters).
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I'm writing this on my phone, so the formatting isn't great, but there's not much time until deadline... So, here's a summary of my thoughts right now.
We need to get a good lynch effort started before the deadline is too close, or Mafia might manipulate the thread to chaos, causing a no-lynch (thus increasing the pool of suspects compared to likely townies after the night kill is over, making it much easier to hide). I'm not very convinced about lynching Unforgiven_ve anymore, since he started showing signs of wanting to participate in the Mafia hunt.
I was thinking about voting for Superouman a bit earlier, but after Miltonkram's post on Ange777, I reconsidered. If Superouman was a more experienced player, he would be pretty likely Mafia. However, since he's new and doesn't apparently know how to play the game properly, it's possible he's just a suboptimal townie playing against his win condition. I see no such plausible explanation for Ange777's play. He's had the time to post excuses about his lack of interest in Mafia hunting, but he hasn't STILL done anything for town's best interests. His play is most obviously anti-town at the moment, and he'll flip Mafia more likely than Unforgiven_ve or Superouman (although you two aren't cleared in my eyes either).
##Unvote ##Vote Ange777
About Suki... I'll look at his filter when I get home, but I got the feeling he's been pretty focused on hunting Mafia. He doesn't read as townie as some players (Cattivik, sciberbia) to me, but I think he also responded earlier in a pretty townie manner. I want to see more from him, but I don't think he's a good Day 1 lynch at all.
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Ange777, your defense so far doesn't include anything of substance. You put us in a really hard spot by making us wait so long for answers (and we're still waiting for something else than simply excuses for your earlier apathy), so you need to do something decisive and clearly townie (nail a Mafia, bring your own point of view to today's events, etc). We can't let you get away from this spot without a good reason, since this is the only lynch effort with real momentum right now. If you manage to convince us, we'll have to decide on a new suspect in a very short amount of time, so time is running out for you. You should be as quick as possible.
sciberbia, it's good that Ange777 stopped lurking (at least for now), but it doesn't look good that it happened right after she came under heavy pressure. It could be a coincidence, but it just seems like too convenient to believe. If you have a better lynch candidate to offer, go ahead, but right now lynching Ange777 feels a lot better than a no-lynch. Although I don't like either how Superouman and Unforgiven_ve have just faded to (fake?) absence without contributing anything significant.
I'm fairly certain Mafia are hiding in this lurkish circle of three, but we have to ensure a lynch before the deadline (few hours left anymore!) and Ange777 seems like the only viable option at the moment. She needs 2 more votes, so get voting. Unless you advocate a no-lynch, or have a town read of Ange777 (pretty hard to believe), your best option is to vote for her at the moment.
Even if you only have a neutralish read of her, there's no quarantee we won't be having this same discussion again tomorrow if she continues lurking and undermining the discussion in the same way. In the worst case scenario of her being town, Mafia would still rather have a no-lynch than remove such a distraction from the Mafia hunt. So remain "AFK"/hesitant/vague about this if you're Mafia, but if you're town, you should see that a no-lynch would be much worse than lynching the sneaky lurker.
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Ninja'd Moment...
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Ange777, your case against Suki gives me hope that you might become an asset for the Mafia hunt after all. More so than Superouman or Unforgiven_ve. However, you made mistakes / mispresentations. Suki jumping on the lynch push for you (in favor of his better Mafia read) isn't really suspicious in itself, since the other option was to basically vote for no-lynch (Unforgiven_ve had no other votes, so it could have as well been voting for no-lynch). It's actually the most logical thing to do as town (unless you think you can turn the tide of the thread in 3 hours) to ensure a lynch, even if it isn't your best Mafia read. I also dislike how you put so much faith in Unforgiven_ve's initial defense, while to me it just looked like angry deflection and dodging. Unforgiven_ve had one decent post later, but why you would bring up his most Mafia-esque post as his defense, I can't say. I can certainly see why someone would feel suspicious of Unforgiven_ve at this point. Do you think Suki is Mafia if you consider these points? What are your other reads? Please share what you can, as fast as you can.
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On June 02 2012 04:37 Ange777 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 02 2012 04:29 Unforgiven_ve wrote:This extended mayority lynch will fuck us pretty bad, mafia are theonly ones benefiting from this i think... This new case (and votes) against Ange777... i did told you mafia would come at last hours for some activity uh? She's is now on my list, but suki remains number one, specially after this On June 02 2012 01:45 suki wrote: I feel that lynching unforgiven at this point would give us a sure mafia lynch, but from the tone of the thread it doesn't seem like it will pass. I'll put off this discussion until day two.
Ange777 already has four votes on him, and by lynching him we rid ourselves of a lurker. To guarantee a Day 1 lynch I will vote for Ange777.
##Unvote Unforgiven_ve ##Vote Ange777 Same random blind vote agains a case someone's else stated For me, suki is still number 1, if Ange777 flips red this will just convice me even more, i bet they are wishing for a NL. I will change my vote before deadline if neccesary, i still have a couple hour to burn. As always, if anyone has any question please ask Okay ... seems like I have to step back from a Unforgiven defense ... What are you implying here? That if I flipped red you would be even more convinced that Suki is scum? If you truly think both of us scum there would be no way Suki wants to vote for me. He could easily stick to his vote on you and claim that he is still 100% convinced of you being mafia. High chance for other people to vote for me anyway, so why would he have to vote for me, make himself suspicious of vote switching and bandwaggoning? Furthermore, losing a scum buddy on day 1 would be awful for him. He would indeed prefer a NL instead of my lynch and therefore NOT vote for me! You just made yourself highly suspicious! ##FoS Unforgiven
You writing posts like this makes me less and less convinced about lynching you, Ange777. If you continued like that tomorrow, it would be a huge loss if you died to this lynch. I'm willing to remove my vote from you and move it to Unforgiven_ve, who just reminded me why I was so suspicious of him initially.
##Unvote ##Vote Unforgiven_ve
The deadline is closing and we need to get 7 votes on a single suspicious player. #1 goes easily to Unforgiven_ve, since Ange777 started playing actively and Superouman hasn't done anything very suspicious (besides his lack of interest in town's win condition). Looks like Suki is absent, which might explain why he was willing to stop pursuing his best Mafia read for today's lynch. Or then he's fake-AFK and wanting to make me think that. In any case, Suki, you need to be more decisive and committing for tomorrow. I don't think you're Mafia right now, but you should improve your play and always trust in your own ability to push the discussion. Consider yourself warned.
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Suki, where are you when you need to defend yourself? The bandwagon on you is gathering steam, but you're nowhere to be seen. And I don't even think you're Mafia. Do a favor for everyone and show up right now.
Where are o.Golden_ne, Superouman, Heist and Eishi_Ki for that matter? This huge amount of lurking is making the game so much harder.
On June 02 2012 05:06 Ange777 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 02 2012 04:59 Unforgiven_ve wrote: No, i belive what you said, you were busy, i have no read on you, for me is a flipcoin. Show nested quote +On June 02 2012 05:03 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Xatalos: do you really think is not suspicious to come a few hours before deadline and make people belive you are that one analyst the town needs? Unforgiven ... how about sticking to your stance? Either you don't have a read on me OR I am suspicious ...
I fully agree and wonder why people aren't voting for him already. He's just throwing non-committing blame around and never risking the chance of being put under real scrutiny. If you want to have a textbook Mafia style to analyze, you have one right here... Compare Unforgiven_ve and Suki with each other and tell me Suki is the Mafia of these two. It's probably not both, since they have been antagonizing each other for the whole game.
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On June 02 2012 05:27 Unforgiven_ve wrote: im not a fan of this, but im gonna do it...
TOWN please, VOTE FOR SUKI, im pretty sure he is mafia!! I bet he is confortably sitting waiting for Ange777 to get lynched or a No Lynch at best.
Xatalos, if you arent mafia, please do this, a vigi can check me at night (if mafia dont kill me before)
I want a Mafia/lurker/distraction lynch instead of a no-lynch, but I don't want an active townie lynch. I'm no longer willing to lynch Ange777 and still not willing to lynch Suki. This is a serious dilemma though, since time is running out and this vote switch gained momentum fast. Mafia are probably laughing and manipulating this lynch as they please. How much time is left? If there is absolutely no other option, I might have to vote Suki to to disrupt a no-lynch, but I sure hope it doesn't come to that.
Everyone, look at Unforgiven_ve's filter and tell me there's a town motivation behind his play. I can see one for Suki (including his move to ensure the lynch on Ange777 while he still looked like a good lynch) but not for Unforgiven_ve. I hope there's still time to make the correct lynch. I'll be reading his filter to see something that hasn't already been said by me, Ange777 or anyone else.
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Vivax (Cattivik), you're clearly online but your vote is useless right now. I ask you to reconsider Ange777 as your Mafia pick and look more carefully at Unforgiven_ve.
Ange777, I also ask you to look at Unforgiven_ve's filter again. I'm still leaning town on Suki and would hate to lynch a townie just to gain some information.
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On June 02 2012 06:19 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Xatalos, please think this. Im risking my neck here! im goin all-in for suki, that would be a ridiculous way of play for a mafia dont you think? Its something pretty obvious, at least for me, im convinced he is mafia and when his alignment is revealed + the mafia kill at night, we will have a shitload of information, dont you think?
You just said you'd be offline until the deadline? Why are you still here then? Faking AFK and then slipping by commenting anyway? I also looked through your filter and saw more empty promises. For example, earlier you promised to post a case on a second suspect today, yet you haven't done so. Frankly I don't see why Suki is being voted over Unforgiven_ve. I agree that Suki's flip would reveal information, but I hate lynching mainly for information. Looks like I might have to do it soon though. But if it comes to that, you're next on the list. Or if he actually flips Mafia, I'll have to reconsider you. I find it hard to believe you would bus your teammate so brazenly.
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On June 02 2012 06:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: To xatalos again, when I say tomorrow I mean day 2. ... I'm reading and directly responding From my phone
Hmm, okay. Looks like some of your contradictions are just communication errors. Something to slightly lessen my suspicions, but I'll reserve my judgement until the deadline.
I feel bad about this but since so many are AFK / disinterested, I have to ensure the lynch on a probable townie. At least this will make things a lot clearer.
##Unvote ##Vote Suki
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The suspense is killing me...
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Wow, that's incredible. It was Suki of those two after all... This makes Ange777 and even Unforgiven_ve look pretty townie. Only Superouman is left of my earlier suspects, but even he doesn't look that suspicious. I'll have to reread the discussion before the deadline.
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On June 02 2012 07:38 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Lolz, I rule, bunch of noobs
I think you must be town unless you planned a really risky bussing strategy with Suki for this game. That's still the only (although significant) thing going for you. Can you tell us who are your other Mafia reads? What do you think of Vivax, Heist, s0Lstice and me for being opposed to the lynch? What about Ange777? Are you still suspicious/neutral towards her?
I don't think Vivax is Mafia, although I was wrong about Suki too. He has put his own credibility on the line so many times, even brazenly defending Suki while it seemed inevitable he would be lynched.
I'm not so sure about Heist. You haven't done much in the game so far, except when Suki had pressure on him. On the other hand, you were very active in the lynch discussion and focused on ensuring the lynch. I want to see you push an original case sooner rather than later.
Not much to say about s0Lstice, he has been active and helpful after the suboptimal start. Not likely Mafia.
All in all, I'm most concerned about Heist among us who opposed lynching Suki. But I'm also concerned about those who stayed out of the spotlight as we went closer to the deadline, such as Eishi_Ki, Miltonkram, sciberbia and Superouman. I want to hear your explanations for avoiding (or mostly avoiding) the most important event in the game so far, and I want some substance to make up for it.
I'm really tired right now and I'm going to sleep. I feel confident there's enough material to find the remaining Mafia already, so I'll have to read a lot of filters when I get back. Ange777, you're pushing for Vivax, and although you were already right about Suki, I'm not convinced about Vivax at the moment. I'll have to read through his filter next to search for the signs you're seeing.
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Ange777, are you there? I think you're the most likely night kill at this point, so you should focus on sharing your reads before the deadline hits. Vivax is your top suspect, but your reasoning isn't fleshed out yet. And really, I'm not convinced that Vivax is Mafia. But I was wrong about Suki, so...
I'm going to be offline for a bit, but I'm almost ready to post a case on my top read. I just want to first see the night kill and possible new posts by him. I doubt my read is going to change at this point though, unless something dramatic happens (such as him being shot or suddenly becoming a convincing townie player). But everything is connected, and I feel like it would be a waste to post lengthy analysis of the game right now, since I don't know why Mafia would shoot me instead of Ange777.
If you think you might be shot now, though, go ahead and share your views before it's too late. Just a few hours before Mafia make their move.
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Well, I was wrong about the night kill as well...... But it's too WIFOM to speculate why they shot s0Lstice instead of Ange777 (a more dangerous player? with better reads? fear of the Medic? to cause misleading speculation like that?) so I'm going to just focus on the fact that s0Lstice is now confirmed town (although I had him as a likely town in my list anyway). Here are my thoughts on all players in a summarised fashion - from least suspicious to most suspicious:
s0Lstice
Verdict: confirmed town
Ange777
Initially a lurker, but soon after becoming active she managed to push through the lynch on a (now) confirmed Mafia. This shows that she has both the analytic skills to catch Mafia and unarguably also the willingness to use these skills in practice. I see absolutely zero reason to lynch her at this time.
Verdict: very likely town
sciberbia
Started the game fearlessly by sharing all his thoughts and suggestions. Then proceeded to push Suki, a (now) confirmed Mafia. Committed to the push and didn't hesitate or state vague opinions. I don't see any reason to lynch him either at this point.
Verdict: very likely town
Vivax
Started sharing his thoughts and reads right away with transparency and clarity. Pushed the lurkers very hard to make them post. Overall, strongly townie way to start the game. Responded to pressure with this:
On June 01 2012 05:51 Vivax wrote: Alright, now to my next defense: I'm one of the most, if not the most active poster in this game so far. Assuming that I survive this day or night while being mafia, my posts make me so transparent that I wouldn't survive day 2 for certain. In that case, I would have played mafia like an idiot. Also cause I'm exposing myself quite extremely. Whoever should be proven wrong for promoting the case against me in case I get lynched will most likely get in trouble the next day, cause I will flip town.
I agree with the content of this post: his playstyle is unsuitable for Mafia and would expose him soon enough. However, one could say that his playstyle actually HAS exposed him... Looking at how many are considering lynching him right now. So this defense isn't as good anymore as I thought it was at the time, although I still agree with the idea behind it.
He continues to be aggressive towards lurkers, and strongly defends players like sciberbia and suki. This all reads town to me - although suki turned out to be Mafia, it would be more natural to be vague, slightly defensive or even slightly hostile toward your teammate instead of this strong defense. The problem I see is that he doesn't really post his insights into the suspicions against Suki, but just brushes them off as obviously wrong like this:
On June 02 2012 04:53 Vivax wrote: I just went through sukis' filter, and I would STRONGLY consider him to be town. I see his defense as valid and his efforts as sincere, that said, the people pushing the case against him are either misleaded townies or mafia. And saying he's bandwagoning on Ange777's case is nonsense, he was among the first if not the first.
I don't see any pure Mafia agenda behind this, but it doesn't look townie either. Why would he just state that Suki is obviously town without evidence as Mafia? It doesn't really help Suki, but it just makes himself look worse. On the other hand, I don't see why he would do this as town either.
He continues to defend Suki while attacking Ange777 at the same time. This seems like too reckless for a Mafia Vivax, in my opinion, especially since it started looking more and more likely that the Ange777 lynch was not happening and that Suki was the only possible lynch option. Why not just bus Suki to look better, since it was useless to defend Suki at that point? I'm not seeing fear or survival instincts in his play, even though I don't get his reasons for wanting to lynch Ange777 instead of Suki in that situation. Ange777 was clearly being active and helpful, while Suki was nowhere to be seen (or hiding). And his main reason for lynching Ange777 there was... lurking. What?? She stopped lurking hours ago. Lurking was not a valid reason to lynch her anymore.
Then there's this more recent post:
On June 02 2012 07:22 Vivax wrote: I doubt I can change things now that I'm proven dead wrong. No, I'm not dead. There still are lurkers.
I will keep scumhunting and ignore accusations against me day 2 simply because I might not be able to defend myself in the light of this event and I don't want to waste energy on it.
This seems a bit too defeatist for my tastes. Why does he automatically assume that the lynch has to be between himself and lurkers (Superouman or Golden, I guess?). It just feels wrong that he considers himself so "guilty" just for opposing a Mafia lynch. It doesn't fit well with the style of play he started the game with.
I had a strong town read on Vivax during Day 1, but after reading through his filter now, I can't anymore put him as a strong town read. Still, considering his strong early game, I'd be willing to give him another chance.
Verdict: slightly townie
Unforgiven_ve
I'm not going to spend my focus on him right now, since it feels unlikely he would be teamed up with Suki. It's possible they went for a double bus, but the simpler and cleaner explanation is that they just wanted to get each other lynched, which would mean Unforgiven_ve is town. I'll put my suspicions for him on hold unless he does something that makes me reconsider the issue.
Verdict: neutral
Eishi_Ki
Hasn't really committed to anything of his own, instead has quite passively followed the flow of the thread. His only vote so far is for Ange777, the lurker - the safest possible vote target. This could all mean cautious Mafia, but also unsure townie. I definitely want to see something more from him in order to get a solid read.
Verdict: neutral
ShiaoPi
Not much to say about him. Generally I dislike replacements, since they mess up the reads and kind of "reset" suspicions for the player (a very useful fact for Mafia). But I don't really have any solid read on ShiaoPi at the moment. I want to see him start contributing as soon as possible.
Verdict: neutral
Superouman
Certainly the most frustrating player in the game. Hardcore lurking, unhelpful posts, useless voting (without any reasoning)... It's almost impossible to tell if he's Mafia or town. If I was a Vigilante, I would shoot him without a doubt, but since we don't have one in this setup, he can just continue doing whatever he wants. A part of me wants to policy lynch him, but it would probably be counterproductive by slowing down the Mafia hunt and analysis.
Verdict: neutral
Miltonkram
Started by sharing some strong opinions on policy topics. However, policies are pretty much the easiest possible discussion topic for Mafia. Once he started talking about player reads, he's immediately hesitant and indecisive:
On May 31 2012 07:59 Miltonkram wrote: With all that said, sciberbia has awakened my suspicions. He spends a lot of time with his first post promoting a no lynch. Notice that he weakly pushes his assumption that a no-lynch might be optimal so that he can back down from that assumption later without too much fuss. I think he knows that lynching is the best play, but he wants to divide town into discussing policy instead of actively scumhunting. Thoughts town?
Why would he ask "thoughts town?" before showing his own opinion on the issue (whether sciberbia is Mafia or not)? This just seems incredibly out of place and wary about attracting any negative attention. Then he posts this:
On May 31 2012 08:40 Miltonkram wrote: Sciberbia, I feel kind of bad for this because we(as mafia) shot you N1 of last game, but your discussion of a no-lynch does not make sense to me if you really have the best interests of the town at heart. ##Vote: sciberbia
He doesn't even say if sciberbia is Mafia or not! He just says that he "doesn't have the best interests of the town at heart". This is a very vague statement that can mean many things: sciberbia might be Mafia, he might be a misguided townie, he might be... well, anything except an optimally playing townie. This accusation is so vague and non-committing that there is basically no risk in saying it. Next up is this:
On May 31 2012 16:13 Miltonkram wrote: Since you have pointed out the flaws in my logic... and math, I will hereby ##UnVote: sciberbia Apologies.
This shows perfectly how vague and non-committing his "case" was in the first place. Miltonkram backs off immediately after seeing some sort of a non-suspicious response. He even apologizes at the end of his post for no reason. Why would he apologize for (softly) accusing someone if he thought the accusation had any merit in the first place?
After closely examining Miltonkram's filter up to this point I started to feel like I had just nailed a Mafia, but his later posts start to be more decisive and logical overall. While reading his later posts, I don't get the same suspicious feeling as from his early posts. It's possible he was coached in the MafiaQT on how to post more convincingly, or then he genuinely started to improve with his reads and style of expressing himself. I'll have to see more from him to make a decision.
Verdict: neutral
Heist
Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post:
On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote:Show nested quote +On June 02 2012 06:14 Vivax wrote: This is a blatantly ridiculous thing to do, yet it looks like I won't be able to push the case against Ange777. To me, it looks like people go extra soft on her to whiteknight. You better pray suki is not gonna flip town, which i believe he will.
##unvote Ange777 ##vote suki
Ready to vote for Ange777 again once there is the prospect of a majority.
Also, remember that unforgiven_ve was the first to push the case against suki. That will reveal a lot about his alignment too.
OH, and Ange777 is actually following that case while suspecting unforgiven at the same time. Why exactly would you suspect someone of being mafia if he was the first pushing the case against someone you believe is mafia?
Looks like we have a scumtell.
The damn deadline is getting close. If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that?
Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier.
I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.
##Vote Heist
I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...
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On June 03 2012 16:32 heist wrote:From Xatalos: Show nested quote + Heist
Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post:
On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote: Show nested quote +
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that?
Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier.
I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.
##Vote Heist
I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...
Look at my very first post. I use caps lock pretty frequently when I want emphasis. If you can actually pinpoint any emotion as you call it to something less circumstantial than caps lock, please point it out. I was just merely active during last phase of the lynch. The bussing comment is referring to my opinion of Vivax, whom I believe is mafia. I don't know if you've bothered to read Vivax's comment, but his vote comes close to an hour before the lynch, which is a lot of time before anything is final. I wanted to gain some momentum for Unforgiven_ve but nope. He starts off by putting distance between himself and his vote, arguing all game that Suki is certain town. But then he goes against his surest town read and votes for her anyway. This is classic bussing as mafia and I'm dealing strictly with Vivax's behavior.
It was very late when I was writing that (pretty tired at that point), and I likely had some confirmation bias based on your bussing comment. I agree that the point about your emotionality toward Suki's lynch wasn't good, since looking at your filter again, your earlier posts actually DO include excessive usage of capslock and strong, emotional statements. And the situation really was quite hasty, so it's not all so weird that your posts were hasty as well.
I see that there's a possible townie logic in your bussing comment. Maybe you just completely disregarded Suki's alignment and focused solely on motivations for Vivax's behaviour. It's still weird to assume Suki being Mafia in your argument unless you thought that to actually be the case. This isn't enough to lynch for alone, but something that keeps me wary about your other posts.
What's more troubling for me than that single comment is your apparent disinterest in hunting Mafia. I read s0Lstice's case on you and it had valid points: you pushed for Vivax initially, but dropped that case without much consideration and pushed to lynch Superouman instead. I see no signs of you being truly interested in catching Mafia so far. I'll keep my vote locked in until you can convince me that you genuinely want to lynch Mafia, not just unhelpful players in general.
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On June 04 2012 02:03 ShiaoPi wrote: On another related note. Did everybody just bury the huge case of Ange on Vivax? I can actually agree with a lot of that and Vivax' behaviour just before the lynch and after it until now really do not translate as townie to me...You all seem to have a high townread on Vivax, mind elaborating why? I really do not share that sentiment.
Vivax was initially a high town read for me (same as sciberbia, and also s0Lstice once he started to participate), but as the game went on, I lost some of my faith in Vivax being town. He seems to have a lot of town motivations behind his plays, but also some suspicious motivations in between. However, it would actually be fitting for Mafia to be inconsistent in that way: sometimes appearing townie, sometimes not so much. Taking that into consideration, I'll have to drop my read on Vivax from slightly townie to neutral/suspicious.
You bring up some good points about s0Lstice's case on Heist. Heist has definitely stayed suspicious of Vivax for a long time, and considering that Vivax might be Mafia after all, it's a big plus for Heist to have consistently pushed for him. I'll have to reconsider my vote on Heist - Vivax might in fact be the better lynch for today. I'll also have to look deeper into Miltonkram's filter, since his early posts scream Mafia, but his later posts are nowhere near as suspicious. Maybe he just learned to conceal his motivations better?
This is for everyone: I want to see more activity. Most of us haven't posted anything in like... 20 hours?? Especially Vivax, Miltonkram and Heist, I want to see you posting. Anything is better than nothing, and Mafia hunting is better than unhelpful speculation or filler posting.
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It looks almost certain now that it's going to be either Vivax or Heist for today. I thought Heist was the better lynch for sure, but his answers for my accusation were good and ShiaoPi pointed out how he's been consistently pushing for Vivax throughout the game. On the other hand, the defense from Vivax wasn't nearly as convincing:
On June 04 2012 03:48 Vivax wrote: I've already said I've finished with my defense and called out the two who i believe to be the remaining mafia members.
It's up to you to interprete my previous posts the right way, but if you don't see heist ignoring ShiaoPi and ShiaoPi defending heist, after s0lstice got killed upon suspecting heist, then go back and read my posts i wrote after his death.
To be honest, I don't mind being lynched, cause then heist and ShiaoPi will be in serious trouble anyway, maybe Ange777 too, but considering 'her' first hit on suki (case against him started by Eishi_Ki and unforgiven_ve) town trusts her too much. Also think that heist and ShiaoPi are supporting a case of a trusted (i believe) townie, it's a pretty safe choice even for mafia.
I think it's really misguided to focus on my posts when there is much more reliable information to get from sukis' posts, you look for mafiavibes from me when there are behaviors of a confirmed mafia towards other players at your disposal.
Look especially at the triangle suki-heist-O.Golden_ne.
1) Defeatist attitude: not minding being lynched. The perfect way for Mafia to deny additional information and/or prepare for a bussing scheme. There's no easier target to bus than one that has already given up. 2) WIFOM: repeating once again as a big point of "evidence" that s0Lstice was killed for suspecting Heist. It's a possibility, but far from evident, especially since s0Lstice was an all-around good town player. 3) OMGUS / Deflection: not bothering to defend from the accusations and/or to push for another lynch. Instead just throws around two names who have been pushing for his own lynch, Heist and ShiaoPi, claiming they will be in "serious trouble" after the lynch. If that's the case, why not focus on making them the lynch for today instead? It's far from quaranteed that his flip, as town, would hold Heist and ShiaoPi responsible or suspect. But his flip, as Mafia, wouldn't clear them either, since these accusations are so shallow and potentially just distancing. The chance for him being Mafia and not wanting to reveal too much with this flip seems much more likely than for being town and wanting to put Heist and ShiaoPi to the lynching list with a "sacrifice". 4) Undermining the atmosphere: placing doubt on Ange777, the main reason for Suki being lynched, without anything to back it up except... well, she lurked early game? Looks more like spreading distrust towards active town posters (without even a good reason) than genuinely wanting to catch Mafia (who thinks Ange777 is Mafia right now? not even Vivax, it seems...).
Since Vivax is looking more and more suspicious, while Heist has alleviated some of my suspicions, I'm going to switch my vote at this point.
##Unvote ##Vote Vivax
I also noticed that Miltonkram started placing doubt on me after I called him out. Not necessarily a Mafia reaction, since anyone would feel threatened by negative attention, but something to keep in mind. Thinking a bit selfishly, though, this slight doubt on me isn't only a bad thing. It means I'm less likely to be shot, so I must thank you for that, Miltonkram.
On June 04 2012 08:47 Miltonkram wrote:Here lies my promised post analyzing the play of Xatalos. I will be looking through his posts chronologically and go over important points again at the end of the post. First post: Show nested quote +Now I've read through the thread, and I must say... I'm pleasantly surprised. There's a lot of information to work with already at this point. The post I had the hardest time figuring out was the very first post in the thread by sciberbia:+ Show Spoiler +On May 31 2012 07:20 sciberbia wrote:Good morning all! I'm really looking forward to this game. I've been thinking about what to put in my first post, and I decided on the following sections. I wrote up this post in the hour since my role PM, if you're wondering how I typed so fast. Please excuse the length: this is my first post and I just wanted to get some info in my filter as well as introduce myself to everyone and start some discussion. about me + Show Spoiler +
I absolutely love playing mafia irl, and I recently played my first forum game: Newbie Mini XIV. I enjoyed the game, and I'm looking forward to playing again with Golden, s0sltice, and Miltonkram. I encourage you all to skim our filters from that game so you have a basis for comparison. Only Miltonkram was mafia.
what you can expect from me + Show Spoiler +
Mainly because I love playing so much, I will consistently be checking and reading the thread and I'll probably be one of the more active posters. I'll maintain my own list of scumreads and make public cases against my top targets. I'll also help in any way I can to organize lynches when deadlines roll around.
what i ask of you guys + Show Spoiler +
1) make reading the thread a priority 2) periodically post your opinions and contribute to the discussion 3) try really hard to be online in the hours before a deadline. We need to organize majority lynches and it's not easy if a lot of people are offline.
to lynch or not to lynch? + Show Spoiler +
Setup A: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 1 cop, 1 medic, 7 VT's Setup B: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 9 VT's Setup C: 3 goons, 1 medic, 8 VT's Setup D: 3 goons, 1 cop, 8 VT's
I think that there is actually a strong case for not lynching on day 1 in this game. In the setups without a medic, namely B and D, I am pretty sure that not lynching on day 1 is strictly optimal. I think that lynch vs NL is a wash for setup C, and I'm undecided about setup A - that one's pretty complicated.
If anybody would like to hear more of my reasoning, just ask and I'll be happy to provide.
Fun fact: Depending on how wisely we spend our NL, we have between 13% and 17% chance of winning setup B assuming random lynches. So we need some really solid scumreads regardless of how strategically we play.
what I think we should focus on right now + Show Spoiler +
The most important thing for us to do is find scum. However, it seems foolish to scumhunt before the majority of players have even looked at the thread. So I think our biggest goal for the first 12 hours or so is to generate discussion. Then, we turn our attention to scumhunting. Here are two things that everyone can comment on:
1) Lynch or NL? 2) Should we lynch inactive players or let them get replaced?
Will all inactive players be replaced or is there a possibility that they just die? If a blue inactive player is modkilled, will their role be transferred to someone else? What if they are mafia? At first glance, I thought sciberbia was an overeager townie trying to direct the game to his liking. It seemed unlikely for a Mafia (especially a beginner Mafia) to put himself into the spotlight right away. However, when I looked closer at the content of this post, I wasn't so sure anymore. Basically the "meat" of this post was speculation about the setup and suggesting a no-lynch. A no-lynch would just give Mafia more breathing room and a free pass to do whatever they want for today. What's more, Mafia would then shoot the most dangerous player in their eyes, and the lurkers / distractive players would of course live on. This would be an ideal situation for Mafia to start day 2 with: a good town player dead, but every suspicious/lurking player still alive. The pool of lynch candidates would be bigger in comparison, and Mafia could hide much easier. So, was sciberbia pushing Mafia agenda all along? For a moment I thought so, but looking also at his later posts, I don't think a beginner Mafia could fake such complicated theories and thought processes. Maybe if he was a veteran, but even then, why would he risk himself in the first place? Either he's a great actor or genuinely wanting to help town. Right now I'm leaning on town, especially since this is a newbie game. Occam's razor: the simplest explanation is usually the right one. Another player I noticed was Cattivik. So far he has been analyzing the game, posting reads, calling out lurkers - all in all, playing for town's win condition. I didn't like him giving sciberbia a free pass just because he was the "first to post", but disregarding that, his filter looks good. Miltonkram, why did you vote for sciberbia so fast? Do you really want to lynch him or is it just a throwaway vote? I'm not comfortable with lynching him at all, especially since most people haven't even posted anything. s0Lstice, you have been wishy-washy and cautious so far. Take a hard stance on something or you'll end up as a lynch candidate sooner or later. Suki, unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Eishi_Ki: start posting as soon as possible. Every moment spent lurking is a victory for Mafia. I'm going to be offline for a while; start posting about your Mafia reads, especially s0Lstice and those who have yet to post. There isn't a whole lot to comment on in this post besides patterns in his play that started here and continued on throughout the majority of his D1 content. Notice how most of the content is on policy. Also note that he points out a lot of names but never directly pressures anyone besides lurkers and spends a lot of time coaching other players on their play. All of this helps him post content that is slightly beneficial to the town without posting much in terms 2nd Post: Show nested quote ++ Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 13:46 Unforgiven_ve wrote:Show nested quote + Try not to bandwagon with a simple "I agree with ___". We want to limit our lynch candidates. The voting patterns of Day 1 may end up leading us to an excellent mafia candidate day 3 or later. If we have people voting all over the place, the usefulness of the day 1 lynch becomes diluted. That's not say don't be aggressive. Don't be afraid to poke the bear right in the eye if you feel good about an accusation.
Sorry, i missed this, im REALLY against bandwagons, specially at the last hours of the day, i think on day 1 we dont have much information to work on, but we need to have our eyes open for a mafia slip, yes, lets pressure people, if they evade/lurk/start attacking other people whitout a real reason, then thats our day 1 candidate. Also, i like to save my vote to the last hours of the day, mafia is always much more active at day last hours just to see if they can change the decision or who is going to die. If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest. Something feels off about Unforgiven_ve. His contributions so far are "safe" generalities to say about the game. In addition, he wants to move the spotlight away from himself by asking for a town leader to easily sheep, and then he even says that he won't vote until the last hours (when it's extremely easy to bandwagon and blend in as Mafia). As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already. In this post he put some decent pressure on Unforgiven. By this time Unforgiven had played confusingly and explained his difficulty with language. I won't discount the fact that it would have taken considerable guts as scum to put pressure on that early, but it's possible Xatalos sensed a weak player that he was confident he could get a mislynch(?) on. 3rd post: Show nested quote +I also want to hear from s0lstice and Superouman. Superouman hasn't yet posted anything, and s0lstice's filter is pretty much worthless so far. + Show Spoiler +On May 31 2012 16:47 Eishi_Ki wrote:Show nested quote +On May 31 2012 16:33 heist wrote:On May 31 2012 13:18 Eishi_Ki wrote: Sorry for delaying, I was washing the blood off me knife. Skinning a pig can be tiring work....
Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway.
However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise.
Needz moar infos I agree with needing more information. And by no means should you blindly follow any accusations. I take it you agree with me on Cattivik but can you clarify your first point about the overuse of the "collective". How exactly is this a scumtell? I'd like some further responses, especially, especially from you, Cattivik. Overall, it's looking as if we aren't going to be plagued by inactivity and lurking although I would prod Superouman and Ange77 to post more and be active. @Sciberbia thanks for the discussion generator, but I'm sure it's apparent that the town majority heavily favors a Day 1 lynch and we should proceed to do so. So enough about policy, I'm curious as to your your thoughts on the other players and suspicions. Just the use of 'we' and 'us' to refer to the townsfolk. Similar to Hollywood'ing in poker, just trying to sell it a bit too much. It caught my eye is all. It's not good to get stuck on details and semantics. Look for the Mafia motivations behind someone's posting, Eishi_Ki. Mafia rarely make stupid mistakes such as this, since they have to be careful about their every post. So far I feel pretty good about Cattivik being town, given his general attitude and style. Again, occam's razor: if someone plays like town should, they are more likely town. Regardless of some details like what specific words they use. Once again he coached players on their reads. He also posted a small defense of another Cattivik/Vivax. This all seems fairly pro-town but it doesn't actually promote scumhunting. 4th post has to do with Superoman. At this point everything that has to do with Superouman is confusing so there's very little I can take away from it. 5th post: Show nested quote +s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work.
Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman.
Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty.
Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player.
sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you. He pointed out a lot of names once again. Spreading one's focus to a lot of players seems like a pretty decent mafia tactic. Here it made him look like he was posting a lot more content than he was. Now that s0Lstice flipped town we can look back and see if anyone posted towards him like they knew he was town. Xatalos's compliment towards him might be an attempt at buddying. I have to stop my chronological analysis here because I will be leaving for work soon. Part 2 of my analysis will be up when I come back. I'd like to leave you guys with my thoughts on a couple issues. D1 lynch patterns: The D1 lynch was a very close affair. If Unforgiven is town, scum had quite a bit of momentum going for a mislynch. It only became obvious that suki was the consensus lynch in the last couple of hours before the deadline. It seems we, the town, inadvertently set up a pretty decent scum trap. Scum only had good reason to switch to suki after it was clear that Unforgiven wouldn't get lynched. With that in mind Vivax, Xatalos and heist look pretty damn scummy. I've already stated that I'm uncomfortable with a heist lynch, something about the case against him feels like there is scum involved. I'll have to look through the filters again and find exactly what that is. I will actively support a lynch on either Xatalos or Vivax. Lurkers: We have had a ton of inactivity N1/D2. With that in mind Xatalos has only pointed out the inactive players that suit his purpose and line of play. He points out heist even though heist has been pretty active attacking Vivax and defending himself. I find that at best misguided and at worst outright scummy. Eishi_Ki, Superouman, please get in here and contribute!
The only somewhat decent point I see in this post is that... I thought Suki was town, and acted accordingly. While it places doubt on my reading skills, it's not a solid piece of evidence regarding my alignment. s0Lstice thought Suki was town as well, and he obviously wasn't Mafia. Vivax and Heist also thought he was town, and while one of them very well might be Mafia, it'd be pretty incredible if they were both Mafia (as the two realistic options for the Day 2 lynch...). That means there were at least two town players with a good town read on Suki, and almost certainly at least three town players. I think Mafia would be far more likely to bus their teammate once the lynch starts looking invevitable (just like you actually did, Miltonkram, right after the bandwagon on Suki had reached the critical mass!) than to recklessly expose themselves to scrutiny - with only a very slim chance of achieving anything. In my eyes, it's very risky for Mafia without almost any benefit. Of course it's possible for Mafia to make suboptimal plays (risking everything for nothing), as Vivax defended Suki, and his play hasn't been very optimal anyway, so I wouldn't be surprised if he made such a big mistake in his play.
Your other points are something like "this is a pro-town / ballsy / unsuspicious thing to do, but maybe it's all fake and hiding behind townieness?". Everything is possible, but if something looks townie, the first thing to do shouldn't be to assume it's all fake (unless you have a severe case of confirmation bias, which seems to be the case). By following your logic, we should be pushing to lynch players like Ange777 and sciberbia as well, even though their actions read town. This is just bad / Mafia logic, not much more to say about that.
If you think it's suspicious that I "bandwagoned" on s0Lstice's case for Heist, you should go reread the definition of bandwagoning. It means to go along with the general opinion. I was the only one really pushing for Heist after s0Lstice died, besides sciberbia who also tried to make it the lynch for today. Most of the players were in favor of lynching Vivax after Suki flipped Mafia. That's what I'd call bandwagoning: just sheeping Ange777, the highest town read. You're much more guilty of "bandwagoning" than me at this point, considering that you just voted for a harmless lurker first, then Suki (the general opinion), then apparently now Vivax (the general opinion). I have yet to see you doing anything else than bandwagoning (except voting for Ange777 - the safest possible option to vote for other than just bandwagoning the general opinion...).
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