| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 09:37 Bluelightz wrote: My suspicions on Bottom 10: Misder has only 1 pager of filter and has done little to no scum hunting. Please, feel free to request me for more opinions. vote Sandroba and you're fine :3 Reasoning has been given. | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 09:38 Misder wrote: I think there is definitely mafia in between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel. I don't see how there is any benefit to town lying about having the Janitor role at all. I also think we should deal with the Janitor role first. + Show Spoiler + Qatol: If you thought that Janitor is a really strong role for mafia that it warranted a denial, why is lynching Paqman more ideal? Paqman: Who do you think is Janitor? Sentinel: Why are you not voting risk.nuke? Reasoning being that you want us to blindly lynch into one of three, potentially loosing a really strong blue if we mislynch because they're so high in the drafts when it is REALLY easy to just wait a day about those 3 and have way more information to get a better lynch? This guy might be an alternative to blue as a Plan-B lynch but I like going for the perfect / best possible lynch d-1. | ||
|
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On May 18 2012 09:38 Misder wrote: I think there is definitely mafia in between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel. I don't see how there is any benefit to town lying about having the Janitor role at all. I also think we should deal with the Janitor role first. Qatol: If you thought that Janitor is a really strong role for mafia that it warranted a denial, why is lynching Paqman more ideal? Because we don't know who between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel has the Janitor. I am more confident about my read on PaqMan than I am of the chances we find the scum member between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel, especially on day 1. I don't believe the mafia will allow the correct player to get enough momentum in a lynch situation for us to be successful. On the other hand, I don't believe the mafia can divert the town's attention if we focus on PaqMan because the only alternatives being seriously discussed right now are this mess of potential Janitor players and Sandroba, whom I've already discussed. | ||
|
zelblade
Australia901 Posts
I'm a vt and didn't choose dayvig. | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
| ||
|
[UoN]Sentinel
United States11320 Posts
Sentinel: Why are you not voting risk.nuke? Sorry for lateness. I was leaning risk but I wanted to make sure it was him and not marv. Since I'm vanilla and it seems like the possibility more and more as time goes on, risk it is. ##Vote: risk.nuke | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 18 2012 10:21 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Sorry for lateness. I was leaning risk but I wanted to make sure it was him and not marv. Since I'm vanilla and it seems like the possibility more and more as time goes on, risk it is. ##Vote: risk.nuke why does it seem more likely as time goes on? | ||
|
PaqMan
United States1475 Posts
| ||
|
Misder
United States1557 Posts
By the time we figure out who Janitor is, it would be too late, no? (As in Janitor would have already used his role). Additionally, don't you think we would get some information from the way people voted between the 3 (especially since you (Toad) claim that we would find them eventually)? | ||
|
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 16 2012 20:59 deconduo wrote: We had agreed on a plan. There was plenty of opportunity to voice any objections to it before the draft list was revealed. It was also mentioned that there would be no changing after the draft was revealed. And yet you come out of nowhere saying you might not follow the plan, and you give no reasoning behind it. It looks a lot like a scum wanting to be able to use janitor without having any consequences. 'Oh janitor was used? I didn't like the plan so I didn't take it, it wasn't me.' Might be because my initial plan was to take GF, when I figured it was a bit stronger than it actually is. However its pretty obvious that I abandoned that plan ages ago, and agreed with the current one. No idea why he would bring it up again now. Also note that he was talking to risk.nuke when he made the comment I bolded. | ||
|
Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
This means that one of them is scum. That is a 1/3 chance, much better than any hunches you might have on PaqMan or sandroba or whoever else. To address some points: risk.nuke has voted Sentinel and Sentinel has voted risk.nuke; therefore, it is very unlikely that one of them is lying to draw fire from scum if they have actually chosen Janitor. Sentinel has claimed vanilla town; therefore, is probably the safest lynch of the three if we want to avoid accidentally lynching a blue. @Toad: We are not lynching blind into 3 targets. Read the thread. Read their filters. Make an educated decision. Don't lynch blind. My scum rank for the three are: 1. Sentinel 2. risk.nuke 3. marvellosity Any discussion of targets other than these 3 will only help cause confusion amongst the town and WILL ONLY BENEFIT SCUM. Qatol, I do understand the conviction to lynch a scum you think you've got pegged, but other people (myself included) just don't see the case as that strong. Here we have a 1/3 chance of hitting scum. Those are great odds. Help us out with some analysis of these 3 people rather than tunneling on PaqMan. To conclude: People should talk about Sentinel, risk.nuke and marvellosity because there is a 1/3 random chance that one of them is scum. Talking about other targets will only help mafia because it spreads confusion among a town which must be focused to win the game. | ||
|
Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
Still thinking about him though. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 18 2012 10:53 Bluelightz wrote: Actually, risk.nuke is kinda the same as Purgatory if I recall, he claimed VT with no fear like here, but one cycle earlier. Also, I think a scum risk.nuke wouldn't be so bold as to claim VT. Still thinking about him though. when did he claim vanilla vt here? | ||
|
Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
On May 18 2012 09:38 Misder wrote: I think there is definitely mafia in between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel. I don't see how there is any benefit to town lying about having the Janitor role at all. I also think we should deal with the Janitor role first. Qatol: If you thought that Janitor is a really strong role for mafia that it warranted a denial, why is lynching Paqman more ideal? Paqman: Who do you think is Janitor? Sentinel: Why are you not voting risk.nuke? Hello Reasonless Stuff, can you please make a reason? | ||
|
Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
Ahh sorry misread his post  . | ||
|
slOosh
3291 Posts
Let's figure out this D1 lynch - PaqMan: yay or nay? | ||
|
PaqMan
United States1475 Posts
On May 18 2012 09:38 Misder wrote: I think there is definitely mafia in between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel. I don't see how there is any benefit to town lying about having the Janitor role at all. I also think we should deal with the Janitor role first. Qatol: If you thought that Janitor is a really strong role for mafia that it warranted a denial, why is lynching Paqman more ideal? Paqman: Who do you think is Janitor? Sentinel: Why are you not voting risk.nuke? The most probable thing that could have happened is that Janitor floated off into the void. This is assuming that Sentinel lied and is not a VT, which is most likely what happened. It's typical to lynch liars but i think this situation is different. He was basically forced to choose Janitor because of a townie (risk) not being compliant with the plan agreed upon by everyone. If I was in sent's spot I would have lied about choosing Janitor and picked the role I wanted. What is starting to bug me now that I'm thinking about it is, why would he continue lying? I would have said I am picking Janitor, to discourage anyone else from choosing it. And as soon as the role picking phrase is over I'd tell everyone that I really didn't pick Janitor. | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 18 2012 10:33 Misder wrote: @Toad and Qatol By the time we figure out who Janitor is, it would be too late, no? (As in Janitor would have already used his role). Additionally, don't you think we would get some information from the way people voted between the 3 (especially since you (Toad) claim that we would find them eventually)? A janitor is nothing gamebreaking and we WANT the janitor to use the power right now because I am happy to take a janitor-ed lynch d1 if we get a confirmed mafia that way. So no, it's not too late at all, it's too early to lynch into those 3 on d1 for the very reason you said we should lynch them. We WANT to get more information on them and we WANT to see who's using powers n1 out of those 3. On May 18 2012 10:51 Snarfs wrote: One of risk.nuke, marv, and Sentinel is lying in a manner that is hurting town. Which is not indicative of alignment, yet This means that one of them is scum. That is a 1/3 chance, much better than any hunches you might have on PaqMan or sandroba or whoever else. 1/3 is horribly bad... You don't lynch into people that have a 1/3 chance of flipping red.... If I would consider sandro to be 1/3 I wouldn't even have mentioned him To address some points: risk.nuke has voted Sentinel and Sentinel has voted risk.nuke; therefore, it is very unlikely that one of them is lying to draw fire from scum if they have actually chosen Janitor. Sentinel has claimed vanilla town; therefore, is probably the safest lynch of the three if we want to avoid accidentally lynching a blue. WAAAAT?!?!?! Yeah, let's lynch into a green, shall we? @Toad: We are not lynching blind into 3 targets. Read the thread. Read their filters. Make an educated decision. Don't lynch blind. Yes you are. You say so yourself right below this My scum rank for the three are: 1. Sentinel 2. risk.nuke 3. marvellosity Awesome, you consider ALL three could possibly flip mafia? Wtf and you really consider lynching into them? That's not an educated guess. That's a straight rnd-lynch equal to the chances of a policy lynch hitting mafia Any discussion of targets other than these 3 will only help cause confusion amongst the town and WILL ONLY BENEFIT SCUM. Qatol, I do understand the conviction to lynch a scum you think you've got pegged, but other people (myself included) just don't see the case as that strong. Here we have a 1/3 chance of hitting scum. Those are great odds. Help us out with some analysis of these 3 people rather than tunneling on PaqMan. If I would consider Sandroba to have a chance of 1/3 to flip mafia I wouldn't even have mentioned him lol. 1/3 chance to flip mafia is HORRIBLY bad. So no, lynching INTO one of those 3 WILL cause confusion. There's multiple people having multiple opinions and everything things someone else is the most likely townie in this constellation. If you can figure out 2 (!) of them are mafia FOR SURE (as in 85%+) fine, we lynch the 3rd guy. Unless that happens we don't lynch into them. To conclude: People should talk about Sentinel, risk.nuke and marvellosity because there is a 1/3 random chance that one of them is scum. Talking about other targets will only help mafia because it spreads confusion among a town which must be focused to win the game. Plus we get 0 information out of a Risk / marv / sent lynch because there's so many different opinions on that matter. Why would you possibly want to lynch into something that has a 1/3 chance to flip mafia when you have an about 100% chance to know their alignment the next day. This is just beyond me. | ||
|
Barbiero
Brazil5259 Posts
On May 18 2012 10:53 Bluelightz wrote: Actually, risk.nuke is kinda the same as Purgatory if I recall, he claimed VT with no fear like here, but one cycle earlier. Also, I think a scum risk.nuke wouldn't be so bold as to claim VT. Still thinking about him though. Don't use that reasoning. Ever since Mattchew, Bill Murray and Risen were a scum team on LIII, I'm never ever considering something to be "too insane for a scum". If something looks bad, fucking call it out. Risen is too focused on himself and is probably the liar. Lynch him. | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
But still I don't get why one could possible consider into lynching a three way. That's straight up the worst move you can do as town unless you really get lucky and hit mafia, but if that's the reasoning we might as well policy lynch Palmar and hope for hitting mafia although he's a complete null so far. If we lynch into a townie out of Risk / marv / sent, which is pretty likely we still have 2 people left, gave mafia aobut 3 or 4 free dead townies considering the setup and have one more turn or we're really screwed while still being at 50/50. Well not exactly, we know what's going on by then because it's d2 but we would know what's going on even without lynching into the townie. So why do people want to take a 2/3 chance to lynch into a townie for NOTHING. 0 information, 0 reads, A LOT of people all thinking someone else is the most likely mafia and people consider lynching the guy who is the least likely a PR (read = a townie VT...) to not hurt town when hitting into townies. How is that an argument for a lynch. We don't lynch a townie who is the least hurtful if lynched. That's not an argument for a lynch. We lynch mafia and a 1/3 chance to lynch mafia is not lynching mafia... Annyone voting marv / risk / sent needs to unvote them and consider someone else. I'd love to see sandro dead but anyone other than those 3 is a better lynch candidate. Hell even Qatol would be a better lynch candidate than those 3 although he's looking pretty townish right now | ||
| ||
|
|
OSC
Creator vs NightMare
SKillous vs SHIN
Gerald vs YoungYakov
Cure vs ReBellioN
Classic vs Percival
SOOP
OSC
OSC
SOOP
The PondCast
Sparkling Tuna Cup
IPSL
DragOn vs Sziky
Replay Cast
Wardi Open
[ Show More ] |
|
|
EPT
