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Pick Your Power: Redux - Page 39

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
May 18 2012 00:38 GMT
#761
On May 18 2012 09:37 Bluelightz wrote:
My suspicions on Bottom 10:

Misder has only 1 pager of filter and has done little to no scum hunting.

Please, feel free to request me for more opinions.


vote Sandroba and you're fine :3

Reasoning has been given.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
May 18 2012 00:46 GMT
#762
On May 18 2012 09:38 Misder wrote:
I think there is definitely mafia in between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel. I don't see how there is any benefit to town lying about having the Janitor role at all. I also think we should deal with the Janitor role first.
+ Show Spoiler +

Qatol: If you thought that Janitor is a really strong role for mafia that it warranted a denial, why is lynching Paqman more ideal?

Paqman: Who do you think is Janitor?

Sentinel: Why are you not voting risk.nuke?

Reasoning being that you want us to blindly lynch into one of three, potentially loosing a really strong blue if we mislynch because they're so high in the drafts when it is REALLY easy to just wait a day about those 3 and have way more information to get a better lynch?

This guy might be an alternative to blue as a Plan-B lynch but I like going for the perfect / best possible lynch d-1.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 18 2012 01:10 GMT
#763
On May 18 2012 09:38 Misder wrote:
I think there is definitely mafia in between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel. I don't see how there is any benefit to town lying about having the Janitor role at all. I also think we should deal with the Janitor role first.

Qatol: If you thought that Janitor is a really strong role for mafia that it warranted a denial, why is lynching Paqman more ideal?

Because we don't know who between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel has the Janitor. I am more confident about my read on PaqMan than I am of the chances we find the scum member between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel, especially on day 1. I don't believe the mafia will allow the correct player to get enough momentum in a lynch situation for us to be successful. On the other hand, I don't believe the mafia can divert the town's attention if we focus on PaqMan because the only alternatives being seriously discussed right now are this mess of potential Janitor players and Sandroba, whom I've already discussed.
Uff Da
zelblade
Profile Joined December 2011
Australia901 Posts
May 18 2012 01:11 GMT
#764
@tails

I'm a vt and didn't choose dayvig.

talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
May 18 2012 01:18 GMT
#765
Then you know more than anyone about what's going on in that trio. Care to weigh in?
[UoN]Sentinel
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
United States11320 Posts
May 18 2012 01:21 GMT
#766
Sentinel: Why are you not voting risk.nuke?


Sorry for lateness. I was leaning risk but I wanted to make sure it was him and not marv. Since I'm vanilla and it seems like the possibility more and more as time goes on, risk it is.

##Vote: risk.nuke
Нас зовет дух отцов, память старых бойцов, дух Москвы и твердыня Полтавы
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
May 18 2012 01:27 GMT
#767
On May 18 2012 10:21 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
Show nested quote +
Sentinel: Why are you not voting risk.nuke?


Sorry for lateness. I was leaning risk but I wanted to make sure it was him and not marv. Since I'm vanilla and it seems like the possibility more and more as time goes on, risk it is.

##Vote: risk.nuke


why does it seem more likely as time goes on?
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
PaqMan
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States1475 Posts
May 18 2012 01:33 GMT
#768
Just got back home from practice. Will catch up on the thread after dinner!
t(ツ)t
Misder
Profile Joined October 2009
United States1557 Posts
May 18 2012 01:33 GMT
#769
@Toad and Qatol
By the time we figure out who Janitor is, it would be too late, no? (As in Janitor would have already used his role). Additionally, don't you think we would get some information from the way people voted between the 3 (especially since you (Toad) claim that we would find them eventually)?
Whaaaa?
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
May 18 2012 01:48 GMT
#770
Posting this again so people don't miss it: the scum team was fully aware of the possibility of claiming not to take janitor but actually taking it:

On May 16 2012 20:59 deconduo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 16 2012 20:13 risk.nuke wrote:
So many plans, I'm going to think on this. I may or may not follow them. I may or may not tell you if I decide to follow them. Honestly though, your arguments arent nearly as persuasive as you think they are.


We had agreed on a plan. There was plenty of opportunity to voice any objections to it before the draft list was revealed.

Show nested quote +
On May 16 2012 02:03 deconduo wrote:
Is there anyone who does not agree with this plan?


Show nested quote +
On May 15 2012 11:37 Qatol wrote:
If anyone has reservations about assigning the roles as we are discussing, please bring them forward now.


It was also mentioned that there would be no changing after the draft was revealed.

Show nested quote +
On May 15 2012 06:16 deconduo wrote:
If we do decide to go with set picks, we need to have a solid decision before the draft order goes through. Mafia will change their preferences based on what positions they get so we can't have any more discussion once the order is revealed.


Show nested quote +
On May 15 2012 07:52 Qatol wrote:
I also agree that the assigned picks shouldn't be changed after the draft order is announced.


And yet you come out of nowhere saying you might not follow the plan, and you give no reasoning behind it. It looks a lot like a scum wanting to be able to use janitor without having any consequences. 'Oh janitor was used? I didn't like the plan so I didn't take it, it wasn't me.'



Show nested quote +
On May 16 2012 20:41 Barundar wrote:
decon has definitely agreed to the plan, so why would he ask this? Could be to try and passively push the plan (that he hasn't really commented on) or role fish?


Might be because my initial plan was to take GF, when I figured it was a bit stronger than it actually is. However its pretty obvious that I abandoned that plan ages ago, and agreed with the current one. No idea why he would bring it up again now.


Also note that he was talking to risk.nuke when he made the comment I bolded.
Snarfs
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada1006 Posts
May 18 2012 01:51 GMT
#771
One of risk.nuke, marv, and Sentinel is lying in a manner that is hurting town.

This means that one of them is scum. That is a 1/3 chance, much better than any hunches you might have on PaqMan or sandroba or whoever else.

To address some points:

risk.nuke has voted Sentinel and Sentinel has voted risk.nuke; therefore, it is very unlikely that one of them is lying to draw fire from scum if they have actually chosen Janitor.

Sentinel has claimed vanilla town; therefore, is probably the safest lynch of the three if we want to avoid accidentally lynching a blue.

@Toad: We are not lynching blind into 3 targets. Read the thread. Read their filters. Make an educated decision. Don't lynch blind.


My scum rank for the three are:
1. Sentinel
2. risk.nuke
3. marvellosity

Any discussion of targets other than these 3 will only help cause confusion amongst the town and WILL ONLY BENEFIT SCUM. Qatol, I do understand the conviction to lynch a scum you think you've got pegged, but other people (myself included) just don't see the case as that strong. Here we have a 1/3 chance of hitting scum. Those are great odds. Help us out with some analysis of these 3 people rather than tunneling on PaqMan.

To conclude: People should talk about Sentinel, risk.nuke and marvellosity because there is a 1/3 random chance that one of them is scum. Talking about other targets will only help mafia because it spreads confusion among a town which must be focused to win the game.
Bluelightz
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Indonesia2463 Posts
May 18 2012 01:53 GMT
#772
Actually, risk.nuke is kinda the same as Purgatory if I recall, he claimed VT with no fear like here, but one cycle earlier. Also, I think a scum risk.nuke wouldn't be so bold as to claim VT.

Still thinking about him though.
Roses Are Red, Violets Are Blue, Radiation Is Good Because Nuclear bombs go BOOM | I love TL Mafia! ♥ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 ♥| Mvp is most boss
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
May 18 2012 02:04 GMT
#773
On May 18 2012 10:53 Bluelightz wrote:
Actually, risk.nuke is kinda the same as Purgatory if I recall, he claimed VT with no fear like here, but one cycle earlier. Also, I think a scum risk.nuke wouldn't be so bold as to claim VT.

Still thinking about him though.


when did he claim vanilla vt here?
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
Bluelightz
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Indonesia2463 Posts
May 18 2012 02:20 GMT
#774
On May 18 2012 09:38 Misder wrote:
I think there is definitely mafia in between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel. I don't see how there is any benefit to town lying about having the Janitor role at all. I also think we should deal with the Janitor role first.

Qatol: If you thought that Janitor is a really strong role for mafia that it warranted a denial, why is lynching Paqman more ideal?

Paqman: Who do you think is Janitor?

Sentinel: Why are you not voting risk.nuke?





Hello Reasonless Stuff, can you please make a reason?
Roses Are Red, Violets Are Blue, Radiation Is Good Because Nuclear bombs go BOOM | I love TL Mafia! ♥ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 ♥| Mvp is most boss
Bluelightz
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Indonesia2463 Posts
May 18 2012 02:27 GMT
#775
On May 18 2012 11:04 marvellosity wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 18 2012 10:53 Bluelightz wrote:
Actually, risk.nuke is kinda the same as Purgatory if I recall, he claimed VT with no fear like here, but one cycle earlier. Also, I think a scum risk.nuke wouldn't be so bold as to claim VT.

Still thinking about him though.


when did he claim vanilla vt here?


Ahh sorry misread his post .
Roses Are Red, Violets Are Blue, Radiation Is Good Because Nuclear bombs go BOOM | I love TL Mafia! ♥ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 ♥| Mvp is most boss
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 18 2012 02:31 GMT
#776
Why not just have all the townies (marv, sent, zel) claim what role they picked and see if any contradictions arise - it could be that they all chose CPR and top 3 are all townies (with risk playing solo ranger style) and janitor trickled down. Right now I'd say the thread has lost its focus and direction and people are going to end up with weaksauce voting allowing mafia to blend in some more.

Let's figure out this D1 lynch - PaqMan: yay or nay?
PaqMan
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States1475 Posts
May 18 2012 02:52 GMT
#777
On May 18 2012 09:38 Misder wrote:
I think there is definitely mafia in between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel. I don't see how there is any benefit to town lying about having the Janitor role at all. I also think we should deal with the Janitor role first.

Qatol: If you thought that Janitor is a really strong role for mafia that it warranted a denial, why is lynching Paqman more ideal?

Paqman: Who do you think is Janitor?

Sentinel: Why are you not voting risk.nuke?





The most probable thing that could have happened is that Janitor floated off into the void. This is assuming that Sentinel lied and is not a VT, which is most likely what happened.

It's typical to lynch liars but i think this situation is different. He was basically forced to choose Janitor because of a townie (risk) not being compliant with the plan agreed upon by everyone. If I was in sent's spot I would have lied about choosing Janitor and picked the role I wanted.

What is starting to bug me now that I'm thinking about it is, why would he continue lying? I would have said I am picking Janitor, to discourage anyone else from choosing it. And as soon as the role picking phrase is over I'd tell everyone that I really didn't pick Janitor.
t(ツ)t
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
May 18 2012 03:02 GMT
#778
On May 18 2012 10:33 Misder wrote:
@Toad and Qatol
By the time we figure out who Janitor is, it would be too late, no? (As in Janitor would have already used his role). Additionally, don't you think we would get some information from the way people voted between the 3 (especially since you (Toad) claim that we would find them eventually)?

A janitor is nothing gamebreaking and we WANT the janitor to use the power right now because I am happy to take a janitor-ed lynch d1 if we get a confirmed mafia that way. So no, it's not too late at all, it's too early to lynch into those 3 on d1 for the very reason you said we should lynch them.
We WANT to get more information on them and we WANT to see who's using powers n1 out of those 3.
On May 18 2012 10:51 Snarfs wrote:
One of risk.nuke, marv, and Sentinel is lying in a manner that is hurting town.
Which is not indicative of alignment, yet

This means that one of them is scum. That is a 1/3 chance, much better than any hunches you might have on PaqMan or sandroba or whoever else.
1/3 is horribly bad... You don't lynch into people that have a 1/3 chance of flipping red.... If I would consider sandro to be 1/3 I wouldn't even have mentioned him
To address some points:

risk.nuke has voted Sentinel and Sentinel has voted risk.nuke; therefore, it is very unlikely that one of them is lying to draw fire from scum if they have actually chosen Janitor.

Sentinel has claimed vanilla town; therefore, is probably the safest lynch of the three if we want to avoid accidentally lynching a blue.
WAAAAT?!?!?! Yeah, let's lynch into a green, shall we?

@Toad: We are not lynching blind into 3 targets. Read the thread. Read their filters. Make an educated decision. Don't lynch blind.
Yes you are. You say so yourself right below this


My scum rank for the three are:
1. Sentinel
2. risk.nuke
3. marvellosity

Awesome, you consider ALL three could possibly flip mafia? Wtf and you really consider lynching into them? That's not an educated guess. That's a straight rnd-lynch equal to the chances of a policy lynch hitting mafia

Any discussion of targets other than these 3 will only help cause confusion amongst the town and WILL ONLY BENEFIT SCUM. Qatol, I do understand the conviction to lynch a scum you think you've got pegged, but other people (myself included) just don't see the case as that strong. Here we have a 1/3 chance of hitting scum. Those are great odds. Help us out with some analysis of these 3 people rather than tunneling on PaqMan.
If I would consider Sandroba to have a chance of 1/3 to flip mafia I wouldn't even have mentioned him lol. 1/3 chance to flip mafia is HORRIBLY bad.
So no, lynching INTO one of those 3 WILL cause confusion. There's multiple people having multiple opinions and everything things someone else is the most likely townie in this constellation. If you can figure out 2 (!) of them are mafia FOR SURE (as in 85%+) fine, we lynch the 3rd guy. Unless that happens we don't lynch into them.


To conclude: People should talk about Sentinel, risk.nuke and marvellosity because there is a 1/3 random chance that one of them is scum. Talking about other targets will only help mafia because it spreads confusion among a town which must be focused to win the game.


Plus we get 0 information out of a Risk / marv / sent lynch because there's so many different opinions on that matter.
Why would you possibly want to lynch into something that has a 1/3 chance to flip mafia when you have an about 100% chance to know their alignment the next day. This is just beyond me.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Barbiero
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Brazil5259 Posts
May 18 2012 03:10 GMT
#779
On May 18 2012 10:53 Bluelightz wrote:
Actually, risk.nuke is kinda the same as Purgatory if I recall, he claimed VT with no fear like here, but one cycle earlier. Also, I think a scum risk.nuke wouldn't be so bold as to claim VT.

Still thinking about him though.


Don't use that reasoning. Ever since Mattchew, Bill Murray and Risen were a scum team on LIII, I'm never ever considering something to be "too insane for a scum".

If something looks bad, fucking call it out. Risen is too focused on himself and is probably the liar. Lynch him.
♥ The world needs more hearts! ♥
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
May 18 2012 03:11 GMT
#780
the last red part obviously was mafia = town. 5 am in the morning here and I'm sleepy...

But still I don't get why one could possible consider into lynching a three way. That's straight up the worst move you can do as town unless you really get lucky and hit mafia, but if that's the reasoning we might as well policy lynch Palmar and hope for hitting mafia although he's a complete null so far.

If we lynch into a townie out of Risk / marv / sent, which is pretty likely we still have 2 people left, gave mafia aobut 3 or 4 free dead townies considering the setup and have one more turn or we're really screwed while still being at 50/50. Well not exactly, we know what's going on by then because it's d2 but we would know what's going on even without lynching into the townie.

So why do people want to take a 2/3 chance to lynch into a townie for NOTHING. 0 information, 0 reads, A LOT of people all thinking someone else is the most likely mafia and people consider lynching the guy who is the least likely a PR (read = a townie VT...) to not hurt town when hitting into townies.

How is that an argument for a lynch. We don't lynch a townie who is the least hurtful if lynched. That's not an argument for a lynch. We lynch mafia and a 1/3 chance to lynch mafia is not lynching mafia...

Annyone voting marv / risk / sent needs to unvote them and consider someone else. I'd love to see sandro dead but anyone other than those 3 is a better lynch candidate. Hell even Qatol would be a better lynch candidate than those 3 although he's looking pretty townish right now
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
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