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I wanted to quickly call out risk.nuke and I figured this + Show Spoiler +On May 18 2012 03:30 risk.nuke wrote:
I'm not the janitor. And if the town is a mess it's not my fault. Protip: stop complaining about it and take some action.
Take the FoS off Qatol and replace it with Sent and Risk. I haven't read into Marv yet but as of now I'd like to keep the lynch candidates between those two. But this time I feel risk is a lot scummier than sent.
Of course I'm going to look more into them and try to write up some cases tonight.
I would address Qatol's case but I feel I'd be repeating myself. So I'll just make this little response.
Believe it or not but I was busy with RL (Sorry GM) so I didn't have much time. I missed most discussion on plans and the only significant post I've made since Game has started is my defense against Qatol.
In My Opinion his strongest argument against me was that I was asking questions on the role plans. Which I've responded too.
As for town meta, I don't think that's fair evidence to go by. LIII is completely different to PYP. You have two days to discuss numbers, discuss roles, and discuss plans.
I've never played a PYP before and that part of the game doesn't appeal much to me. I'm so used to just being handed a role and told "go!".
That's the best way I can explain it to you and if you can't understand and you still think I'm scum because of that, there's nothing else I can do about it.
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Ok if someone can figure out why 2 of those 3 can not be mafia tell me and we lynch the third guy.
If you are not able to do that we will not randomly lynch into one of the three. It's as simple as that.
A random lynch into one of three is about as bad as a policy lynch. A policy lynch is 1/4 chance to hit mafia / SK...
might as well lynch me instead, or Qatol, or whoever else.
Noone wants that to happen, yet people consider lynching into risk / marv / sent. With this (possibly) KP stacked setup it's even worse. We have 14 townies alive and AT LEAST 2 KP every night. more likely something like 2,5 every night (depending on wether or not mafia has the CPR) + something like 1 or 2 KP extra.
That's a shitload of dead townies and we can't policy lynch in that situation.
Unless someone can figure this mess out none of these three should be a topic and none of these three should be lynched.
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On May 18 2012 12:46 Toadesstern wrote:
Ok if someone can figure out why 2 of those 3 can not be mafia tell me and we lynch the third guy.
If you are not able to do that we will not randomly lynch into one of the three. It's as simple as that.
A random lynch into one of three is about as bad as a policy lynch. A policy lynch is 1/4 chance to hit mafia / SK...
might as well lynch me instead, or Qatol, or whoever else.
Noone wants that to happen, yet people consider lynching into risk / marv / sent. With this (possibly) KP stacked setup it's even worse. We have 14 townies alive and AT LEAST 2 KP every night. more likely something like 2,5 every night (depending on wether or not mafia has the CPR) + something like 1 or 2 KP extra.
That's a shitload of dead townies and we can't policy lynch in that situation.
Unless someone can figure this mess out none of these three should be a topic and none of these three should be lynched.
That idea is also as bad as a policy lynch. You're telling us to waste time coming up with reasons why two other people ARE NOT scum, instead of actual scum hunting. I don't see where you're coming from. I think there is a very good chance one of them three are scum and I'm going to push it. You're basically telling us that unless that person is guaranteed scum, we shouldn't lynch him. Which is impossible to do on D1.
On May 18 2012 12:11 Toadesstern wrote:
We lynch mafia and a 1/3 chance to lynch mafia is not lynching mafia...
1/3 is a really high chance of hitting scum considering the fact that there are 14 other townies here.
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Ok I'm really at a lose of word right now and I'm tired so one last try to get you people off those 3:
Consider my reads from C9++. That's what I had on d1 in C9++ #2
+ Show Spoiler [picture] +
Hinthint: Every town read was right. Mafia team ended up being VE + foru + Ace.
Here's my sheet considering those 3:
+ Show Spoiler [picture] +
Yes I'm that awesome now please just trust me for once.
Marv and Senti both are looking really townish and I REALLY doubt they have a chance to flip mafia right now.
Marv is ACTIVLY asking me ALL THE TIME what I am talking about when I am not explaining my thoughts. That looks a lot like a towny who's ACTIVLY trying to figure out what's going on in peoples head. That's one of the biggest town tells in the game. Could it be faked by a good mafia? Hell yeah, it's d1, but I have no reason to believe so yet.
Senti claimed VT who tried to pick Janitor. Think about the situation. Would a mafia claim that?
Both Risk and Marv claimed they are not janitor. If we somehow figure out they really aren't he is INSTA-BUSTED.
If he is mafia he shoveld his own grave with this action. Not today but d2 or d3 because if we find out about one of Risk / Marv being janitor (which is highly likely) he is insta-dead.
High risk of dying for mafia, about 0 gain. IF sent is mafia he went for a 1:1 trade with that statement. I am more than happy to take that trade, because we WILL figure that out soon enough without having to randomly lynch into one of those.
Risk is looking somewhat townish but he might as well be yellow. That's the one read I'm not sure about but I'm not willing to lynch into a yellow read either.
THE ONLY THING people are talking about are the lies. Liar doesn't mean mafia. I caught VE lieing in my first 30-man game. He claimed day-vig d1 in a game with an election and it was obvious to me that he was a liar and I was right about it. I came to the conclusion that he has to be a mafia because of that, which was completly bullshit.
He lied because he wanted to win the election for mayor because he knew his own alignment and thought a 100% proven town as mayor is better han a somewhat proven player who's a vet (VE wasn't considered a vet back then).
Long story short: Someone lying doesn't mean they have to be mafia all the time, especially if they have a good reason to lie about it and you ALWAYS have a good to lie about your role. ALWAYS.
I am pretty certain if I was a towny in Risks position and I picked janitor I would lie about it as well and I would vote sent as well. I have no idea why that is supposed to be scummy.
If risk IS a janitor he's probably town. If he's not he's probably not. I don't know wether or not he's a janitor yet but I think I understand what he's doing, therefore the lightish-green color and it makes sense, although I don't really like it, but that's risk.
I never like what he's doing.
About the same situation for marv.
Fancy conclusion:
I'm not even sure if one of them is mafia. Yeah it could be one of them is mafia but it's not bound to be like people said. If sent would have picked something else it would have been a whole other situation and THAT's why people started voting them because people misunderstood what sent said. Now that sent cleared those things up it should be clear that neither of them makes a good d1 lynch.
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On May 18 2012 13:12 PaqMan wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 12:46 Toadesstern wrote:
Ok if someone can figure out why 2 of those 3 can not be mafia tell me and we lynch the third guy.
If you are not able to do that we will not randomly lynch into one of the three. It's as simple as that.
A random lynch into one of three is about as bad as a policy lynch. A policy lynch is 1/4 chance to hit mafia / SK...
might as well lynch me instead, or Qatol, or whoever else.
Noone wants that to happen, yet people consider lynching into risk / marv / sent. With this (possibly) KP stacked setup it's even worse. We have 14 townies alive and AT LEAST 2 KP every night. more likely something like 2,5 every night (depending on wether or not mafia has the CPR) + something like 1 or 2 KP extra.
That's a shitload of dead townies and we can't policy lynch in that situation.
Unless someone can figure this mess out none of these three should be a topic and none of these three should be lynched. That idea is also as bad as a policy lynch. You're telling us to waste time coming up with reasons why two other people ARE NOT scum, instead of actual scum hunting. I don't see where you're coming from. I think there is a very good chance one of them three are scum and I'm going to push it. You're basically telling us that unless that person is guaranteed scum, we shouldn't lynch him. Which is impossible to do on D1. Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 12:11 Toadesstern wrote:
We lynch mafia and a 1/3 chance to lynch mafia is not lynching mafia...
1/3 is a really high chance of hitting scum considering the fact that there are 14 other townies here.
You're getting an award for this. 1/4 is true random lynch, aka a lynch into someone without a second of a though done by a random generator. Yes 1/3 TRUELY are aweome odds...
And no I am telling you to only lynch people when you are AT LEAST (!!!!!) 50% certain they'll flip mafia. Everything else is a mislynch.
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On May 18 2012 10:51 Snarfs wrote:
One of risk.nuke, marv, and Sentinel is lying in a manner that is hurting town.
This means that one of them is scum. That is a 1/3 chance, much better than any hunches you might have on PaqMan or sandroba or whoever else.
To address some points:
risk.nuke has voted Sentinel and Sentinel has voted risk.nuke; therefore, it is very unlikely that one of them is lying to draw fire from scum if they have actually chosen Janitor.
Sentinel has claimed vanilla town; therefore, is probably the safest lynch of the three if we want to avoid accidentally lynching a blue.
@Toad: We are not lynching blind into 3 targets. Read the thread. Read their filters. Make an educated decision. Don't lynch blind.
My scum rank for the three are:
1. Sentinel
2. risk.nuke
3. marvellosity
Any discussion of targets other than these 3 will only help cause confusion amongst the town and WILL ONLY BENEFIT SCUM. Qatol, I do understand the conviction to lynch a scum you think you've got pegged, but other people (myself included) just don't see the case as that strong. Here we have a 1/3 chance of hitting scum. Those are great odds. Help us out with some analysis of these 3 people rather than tunneling on PaqMan.
To conclude: People should talk about Sentinel, risk.nuke and marvellosity because there is a 1/3 random chance that one of them is scum. Talking about other targets will only help mafia because it spreads confusion among a town which must be focused to win the game.
Yes I agree. While I still think that PaqMan is our best lynch target, it's clear that he won't be getting lynched this cycle. Any further pushing I do on the subject will just further splinter the town and make a no lynch/mislynch more likely. I'll have to look at filters and histories more carefully for risk.nuke, marvellosity, and Sentinel before I make a final decision, but I'll make a few observations:
1. Unless we lynch Sentinel, we don't even know for sure that the Janitor role is among the first 3 players at all. For all we know, the first 2 players took something else and Sentinel is mafia and just lying. Sentinel is also, like Snarfs mentioned, the one of the three who is claiming not to have a role. If we assume 2 townies and 1 scum (if there were 2 scum, I can't imagine that they wouldn't just have one member claim the role to avoid giving the town incredible odds of destroying their team), that means that at least 1 of the townies has a role which is probably pretty good considering where they're picking.
2. I could definitely see risk.nuke acting like this as a townie. Notice that he wanted to post his numbers so nobody else would pick them before the game even started and posted them immediately when the game did start. This shows that he's impulsive and rather selfish in his actions. He's also the only one of the three who said he wouldn't be picking Janitor or CPR before the drafting phase ended.
I'll do a more in depth analysis tomorrow, but for now, logic say vote Sentinel, so I'll preliminarily vote for him.
##Unvote: PaqMan
##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel
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On May 18 2012 13:38 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 10:51 Snarfs wrote:
One of risk.nuke, marv, and Sentinel is lying in a manner that is hurting town.
This means that one of them is scum. That is a 1/3 chance, much better than any hunches you might have on PaqMan or sandroba or whoever else.
To address some points:
risk.nuke has voted Sentinel and Sentinel has voted risk.nuke; therefore, it is very unlikely that one of them is lying to draw fire from scum if they have actually chosen Janitor.
Sentinel has claimed vanilla town; therefore, is probably the safest lynch of the three if we want to avoid accidentally lynching a blue.
@Toad: We are not lynching blind into 3 targets. Read the thread. Read their filters. Make an educated decision. Don't lynch blind.
My scum rank for the three are:
1. Sentinel
2. risk.nuke
3. marvellosity
Any discussion of targets other than these 3 will only help cause confusion amongst the town and WILL ONLY BENEFIT SCUM. Qatol, I do understand the conviction to lynch a scum you think you've got pegged, but other people (myself included) just don't see the case as that strong. Here we have a 1/3 chance of hitting scum. Those are great odds. Help us out with some analysis of these 3 people rather than tunneling on PaqMan.
To conclude: People should talk about Sentinel, risk.nuke and marvellosity because there is a 1/3 random chance that one of them is scum. Talking about other targets will only help mafia because it spreads confusion among a town which must be focused to win the game. Yes I agree. While I still think that PaqMan is our best lynch target, it's clear that he won't be getting lynched this cycle. Any further pushing I do on the subject will just further splinter the town and make a no lynch/mislynch more likely. I'll have to look at filters and histories more carefully for risk.nuke, marvellosity, and Sentinel before I make a final decision, but I'll make a few observations: 1. Unless we lynch Sentinel, we don't even know for sure that the Janitor role is among the first 3 players at all. For all we know, the first 2 players took something else and Sentinel is mafia and just lying. Sentinel is also, like Snarfs mentioned, the one of the three who is claiming not to have a role. If we assume 2 townies and 1 scum (if there were 2 scum, I can't imagine that they wouldn't just have one member claim the role to avoid giving the town incredible odds of destroying their team), that means that at least 1 of the townies has a role which is probably pretty good considering where they're picking. 2. I could definitely see risk.nuke acting like this as a townie. Notice that he wanted to post his numbers so nobody else would pick them before the game even started and posted them immediately when the game did start. This shows that he's impulsive and rather selfish in his actions. He's also the only one of the three who said he wouldn't be picking Janitor or CPR before the drafting phase ended. I'll do a more in depth analysis tomorrow, but for now, logic say vote Sentinel, so I'll preliminarily vote for him. ##Unvote: PaqMan
##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel
Just this one question: If sent is mafia, why did he take the risk to claim VT who tried to take janitor when both Risk and marv said they haven't picked janitor. That's an instant death for him if they really did that.
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@Bluelightz As mentioned, one of them is lying about not having the Janitor role. Town cannot use Janitor in any way that would actually benefit town; therefore, only scum would have any reason to keep silent.
@Toad Why did you want to assign Janitor pre-draft then?
On May 18 2012 12:02 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 10:33 Misder wrote:
@Toad and Qatol
By the time we figure out who Janitor is, it would be too late, no? (As in Janitor would have already used his role). Additionally, don't you think we would get some information from the way people voted between the 3 (especially since you (Toad) claim that we would find them eventually)? A janitor is nothing gamebreaking and we WANT the janitor to use the power right now because I am happy to take a janitor-ed lynch d1 if we get a confirmed mafia that way. So no, it's not too late at all, it's too early to lynch into those 3 on d1 for the very reason you said we should lynch them. We WANT to get more information on them and we WANT to see who's using powers n1 out of those 3.
I also don't get how we get confirmed mafia. Janitor PMs during the night when he wants to clean up bodies. I don't understand why we want the Janitor to use his power at all.
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On May 18 2012 13:47 Misder wrote:@Bluelightz As mentioned, one of them is lying about not having the Janitor role. Town cannot use Janitor in any way that would actually benefit town; therefore, only scum would have any reason to keep silent. @Toad Why did you want to assign Janitor pre-draft then? Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 12:02 Toadesstern wrote:On May 18 2012 10:33 Misder wrote:
@Toad and Qatol
By the time we figure out who Janitor is, it would be too late, no? (As in Janitor would have already used his role). Additionally, don't you think we would get some information from the way people voted between the 3 (especially since you (Toad) claim that we would find them eventually)? A janitor is nothing gamebreaking and we WANT the janitor to use the power right now because I am happy to take a janitor-ed lynch d1 if we get a confirmed mafia that way. So no, it's not too late at all, it's too early to lynch into those 3 on d1 for the very reason you said we should lynch them. We WANT to get more information on them and we WANT to see who's using powers n1 out of those 3. I also don't get how we get confirmed mafia. Janitor PMs during the night when he wants to clean up bodies. I don't understand why we want the Janitor to use his power at all.
mostly because it's a mess for noobs and people tend to freak out about it although it it's not really that strong.
It's more of a mental weapon than anything else.
IF we have a janitor'ed d1 lynch:
SENT is confirmed green because he told the truth about being a VT and knew there was a janitor.
Also we know that there there's a mafia between risk and marv. We either get to 50/50 by lynching into a townie to have one less tomorrow or we get into 50/50 automatically by wainting while lynching someone else who is ACTUALLY SCUMMY.
IF we don't have a jantor'ed d1 lynch:
We still have a blue roles who can check those guys and all 3 have things to look into that are confirming the other 2 guys but there's only 1 framer (if at all)
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Could you explain what "janitor'ed d1 lynch" means?
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If we have a janitor in action. A lynch d1 that is not flipped.
If we see a flip without role / alignment we know sent told the truth and one of risk / marv is a janitor =>
Therefore sent is confirmer town and one of risk & marv is pretty likely to be mafia. No townie would use the janitor power.
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I really shouldn't post at 7am, or at least check my spelling before pressing send... EBWOP
+ Show Spoiler [EBWOP] +On May 18 2012 14:04 Toadesstern wrote:
If we have a janitor in action. A lynch d1 that is not flipped.
If we see a flip without role / alignment we know sent told the truth and one of risk / marv is a janitor =>
Therefore sent is confirmed town and one of risk & marv is pretty likely to be mafia. No townie would use the janitor power.
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Next question for everyone: If you consider them all about equally scummy (1/3)
What are you going to do if the flip ends up being without alignment / role due to the janitor? Go on lynching the other 2 as well?
There's just a shitload of reasons not to lynch into those 3 until we're at least somewhat certain on who out of those 3 (if at all) is mafia.
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I don't think it's possible for d1 lynch to be "janitored" because in the role description, it says that Janitor needs to PM at night for the following day to be cleaned up. That's why if we find Janitor today, we escape confusion.
Anyways, Qatol brought out a possibility that I did not think of which counters your first point: Sentinel could be scum but gave Janitor to some other mafia member lower in the draft. Plus, I don't see how it confirms Sentinel to be town at all because it could be him having the Janitor role and using it, but pretending that he does not have it.
Your second point will draw out more blues (investigative roles would need to claim, marvellosity and risk would need to claim their presumed roles).
##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel
Along with the logical arguments provided (and technically, strict probability), Sentinel is higher on my scum list. He was compliant with the plan after the draft phase came out (but did not imput before). Although he asked risk to get Janitor, it was already clear that risk wasn't going to get it and doesn't say anything further, which means he was comfortable picking Janitor. This comes into play when you read + Show Spoiler + On May 15 2012 05:07 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:Show nested quote +
Protection roles are every bit as valuable as information or killing roles. You shouldn't only be looking to take medic/jailkeeper if you are low on the list. If you are higher on the list and feel comfortable with the role, or you are worried that the role will not be picked/ the role will be sniped early, grab it higher up! Having those roles in the game is very important for continuing to slow down the night killing. They are not low-tier roles.
Agreed. Personally I'm really comfortable playing as Doc, and if I'm not one of the top five (haven't played a power role in forever so I'm interested in those as well) I might snatch that or jailkeeper up.  " rubbed me the wrong way, but that's minor I guess. He also only votes risk after pressure, and doesn't really explain why he does in fact choose to vote instead of FOSing.
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Also, Janitor doesn't clean up lynches I'm pretty sure, only night kills.
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To get this straight:
If sent really is mafia he is a janitor, because he can't say he's a VT unless he knows neither risk nore marv picked janitor and he only knows that if he is a janitor himself or a mafiabuddy of his. So if sent really is mafia and he flipped without an alignment, what do you guys propose to do next? We have no idea abut what happend, 0 information (as I mentioned about 10 times) no idea wether we hit a mafia or hit a townie out of that constellation. Do we proceed to lynch Risk and Marv who are both town to go for savety or do we stop lynching them? Why do we stop? What's the point in only lynching one of them if one of the 3 is bound to be mafia (according to people...)? As you can see we would be forced to happily lynch into townies the next day even if a sent/risk/marv. lynch ended up being mafia
If Risk is mafia he is the janitor because he was first to pick after decunduo and got the role. That way sent and marv both told the truth. That way a lynch would be concealed. 0 Information about wether or not we actually hit a mafia or not. Same as above. Do we proceed to lynch the rest? If not, why do we stop? What's the point in lynching just one of them when we think one of them is bound to be mafia but don't know if we hit mafia last night. As you can see we would be forced to happily lynch into townies the next day even if a sent/risk/marv lynch ended up being mafia.
If Marv is mafia either Risk or Marv is the janitor. Both could be possible. If marv is the janitor same problems as above. If Risk is the janitor luckiest hit ever because that flip won't be conceiled.
Lynching any of those 3 forces us to lynch all 3 of them IF one of them really is mafia. If none of them are mafia people will be "come on, we hit a townie, now it's 50/50, better luck next time" and the one after that "well that was bad luck, but we at least now know that the last guy is mafia" and that's 3 mislynches in a row and game over.
If one of Risk / marv / sent is mafia lynching into them d1 is either pointless or it's game loosing depending on wether or not we keep on lynching until we hit mafia.
Hence my point to wait for d2 at least.
So again, d1 is not the time to lynch into those 3, even if you think they are mafia. It will cause massive confusion and it is bound to be a failure no matter what because we're either not told that we succeeded which will lead us into lynching 2 townies or we don't hit mafia at all for 3 cycles.
You don't lynch "it's either X or Y" or even "it's either X or Y or Z" when a janitor is alive because you don't get information so get the fuck off those 3 and get your votes onto Sandroba or for all I care on somebody else. I don't even care if we policy lynch someone else instead at this point of time because lynching one of these 3 is RETARDED.
So PLEASE don't lynch into one of them until you are really sure that ONE specific guy is mafia because only in THAT situation would be stop lynching with a conceiled flip.
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No player's role or alignment will be revealed upon death for that upcoming Day.
I read that as "no lynch information" oO
IF that's wrong screw everything I said and whatever. It's still bad to lynch one of them but we at least got a 33% chance to hit mafia...
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[gree]Hey GM, does "no information on day" mean no information about nightkills once day started or does it mean no information about deaths happening on day, aka the lynch?[/green]
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On May 18 2012 14:34 Toadesstern wrote:
Hey GM, does "no information on day" mean no information about nightkills once day started or does it mean no information about deaths happening on day, aka the lynch?
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I mean. A janitor that conceils night kills would be stupid. No need to deny that if that's the case.
We told townies not to use KP roles early on. So if it really is a night-kill janitor whatever, I'll vote sent to make a lynch happen but just to show you guys how wrong your are, so that we can carry on d2 and win this
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/tAFf3.png)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/mqvOW.jpg)
