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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
On May 12 2012 07:29 Anacletus wrote:
Also - I'd like to just point out that many people recently have just switched votes, aka Unforgiven, ShiaoPi and Firm. Maybe it's a coincidence? Maybe not.
I'm just really concerned with the way that those guys are swing-voting and bandwagoning so hard.
If you believe me to be bandwagoning go reread my filter, I actually give a lot of reasons why I waited this long to vote and I was among the first to support austinmcc's case. If that is bandwagoning to you, I would tend even stronger to the idea that you are just a "bad" townie.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
Damn it....why didn't you claim? 
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
Gonna post a more in depth post later.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
Okay, let's see what we can salvage from the mess we have done. First of all I guess part of the blame for this colossal mislynch lies with BroodKingEXE's play, Even a last ditch roleclaim would have been better than the defense he put up, but sadly we cannot reverse what we have done, so let's take a look at the votes which led to his lynch:
+ Show Spoiler +
Vote Count:
BroodkingEXE(8): austinmcc, Anacletus, dahdum, BioSC, FirmTofu, ShiaoPi, unforgiven_ve, Mufaa
The people who switched were: Anacletus, dahdum, BioSC, FirmTofu, ShiaoPi, unforgiven_ve and Mufaa.
Basically everyone except austinmcc who started the case. I personally do not blame him for starting the wagon since I agreed on a lot of his views and I also said that the play of BKE was either blue or scum.
Looking at Anacletus next:
-his last posts seemed quite townie to me and his vote is reasoned from his side as "better they lynch you than they lynch me", which is okay to me. Yes Anacletus played horribly halfway through the day, but it actually got better, so for now I would put him as "bad" townie.
dahdum's vote is here:
+ Show Spoiler +
Will support a lynch of BioSC or BKE, do we have a current vote count?
##unvote
##Vote BroodKingEXE
Might not be enough to swing it, but I feel more comfortable lynchying BKE than Anac at this point.
Looking through his filter, it consists mostly of attacks on BioSC, pretty much the only thing about BKE is the following from his list:
+ Show Spoiler +BKE - Not providing reads, only a semi-baseless vote which helped get the game going. Talks about scum will do and urges caution. Scummy.
I am unsure what to make of it right now. He seemed to have suspected BKE for a while which could explain his vote on him after austin made his case. Especially since nobody seemed to be inclined to follow up his pressure on BioSC. The only slightly suspicious thing I can make out is in his post just before his vote he says the following:
I'm backing off of anac at this point, he's still suspicious but I'm thinking reckless/bad town vs bad mafia. Too many people are after him first day, some have to be mafia, and his defense should have been better if he's getting help in a QT (as austinmcc mentioned).
First he says that he backs off from anacletus, although he only jumped on that bandwagon without much explanation and did not follow it up with pressure besides his vote. It would have made more sense to say "I am backing off from BioSC for now" as he was focused on him. But it can also be argued that it was just a wording issue as his vote was indeed still on anacletus. His reasoning on switching onto BKE is basically sheeping austinmcc's arguments without adding anything else to it. He also does not post again before the lynch. If we take his comment on BKE from his list into consideration it seems a lot less scummy than it might otherwise, so for now just slightly fishy play due to lack of discussion and trying really hard to start a case on BioSC without actually starting one.
Up next we have BioSC:
His defense against the (half-)case of dahdum seems reasonable to me, posts well-thought out posts and gives his opinions on the main topics of discussion. He is among the first to react to austinmcc's case but is reluctant to change his vote at first. As soon as he does he seems to have gone offline or into lurkermode. I would consider his vote in the same category as my own, we were simply confident in a read on scum and acted accordingly.
FirmTofu:
FirmTofu has quite the lack of activity but when he did defend himself and start a little case against darkfirex5 his posting seemed well-structured and reasonable. His vote however does not tell us much:
+ Show Spoiler +I think Broodking's responses to the pressure are much more telling than the actual initial pressure itself. austinmcc is completely right that Broodking is the scummiest person alive now.
##vote BroodKingEXE
It seems like a "let's just join the bandwagon"-vote. But we need more posts to read more into him. As it stands now I would remain suspicious of him, especially as his posts before switching his vote had 0 content regarding BKE.
My own decision to switch should be pretty transparent if you reread my filter, so I will not repeat myself here.
unforgiven_ve has been terribly inactive for most of day 1 even voting for himself just to make sure that he voted in case he cannot check the thread out before the deadline. He rejoined the discussion as he could spare the time to do so and goes on to clearly state his reasons for switching to BKE after his initial vote on Anacletus (which pretty much all of us did anyway). Does not look like a bandwagonjumper to me.
Mufaa has also been really inactive for most of the time. When he did post however, there was clearly effort and thought behind it. Sadly his amount of posts is still really low. He was there at the end of the Anacletus discussion and just in time for the deadline. He pushed a little against Jailbreaker just before switching but his reasoning seems solid and transparent. Also does not look like a bandwagoner.
Conclusively on the voters of BKE the only outstanding ones are dahdum and FirmTofu. I would really like to hear more from you. Especially about your voting decision or generally more activity.
Besides those participating in the mislynch we have other suspects as well. Jailbreaker has been called out more than often enough so I guess I do not have to add anything against him.
I want to focus a bit on darkfirex5:
If you read through his filter, you immediately see that there is simply a lot of weak halfcases he starts against several people, these include: Anacletus (where his vote ends up), BioSC, FirmTofu and dahdum. His posts are few and mostly within the context of the Anacletus discussion, in which he seemingly takes a diverting role with his suspicions. In regards to BKE he writes the following:
+ Show Spoiler +
I'd suggest filtering BKEXE's posts. From what I'm reading of what he has posted, there isnt anying that makes me want to switch the bandwagon onto him (fairly) last minute. There isnt enough posts from him to make the acusation he is more mafia than that of Anacletus. I dislike this massive wagon switch because instead of going with the safest mafia guess, we switch it last minute to someone i think we need more posts from to prove he is mafia.
I bolded the part which seemed weird to me. I could agree with his reasoning on not wanting to switch before, but BKE was actually one of the more active players so it seems like a sentence without anything backing it up. Generally speaking he is acting scummy as in non-comittal to his reads/suspicions and inactivity. Keep your eyes on him.
Hyaach's play has steadily improved during the game as in contributing to the discussion and such. He also questions BKE, seemed to be inclined to maybe switch his vote, but he just stopped posting as soon as BKE responded. Kind of weird if you ask me, add to it the confusion he has done in the first haf of day 1 and remains a hard to read player, so fishy play right here.
So who am I keeping on my watchlist for now?
jailbreaker, Dahdum, hyaach, FirmTofu, darkfirex5 are currently my top suspicions.
jailbreaker for his ridiculous inactivity, dahdum and Firm for bandwagoning, darkfirex5 for confusing, non-comittal, inactive play and hyaach for confusing play which might be another "bad" townie who slipped at the beginning.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
Jailbreaker obviously leaves the circle of suspects if he gets modkilled, but I think that is pretty self-explanatory.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
I do not think we should stop discussion at night. There is no reason to, yes mafia might make adjustments to their plans but so can our blues and it is better to die with night contributions, which might be good information for the survivors, than just silently.
@Crossfire99: You really got some good points on Mufaa, but besides his inactivity and the math behind his vote there are not that much questionable actions/information on him.
Mufaa mind sharing you thoughts on your vote?
From the people I have called out there were responses by dahdum:
+ Show Spoiler +I stand by my vote on BKE, I've been at work so couldn't really go in depth on Anaclectus - but I still get that newbie town vibe.
Bringing up BioSC was just reiterating the top of my list, it's also enjoyable how defensive he gets when mentioned. I'll make a full case when I'm ready. I'm not sold on anyone being confirmed, and we haven't gotten to true analysis stage.
The odd thing is that you have tunnelled him all game long, but still feel that you are not ready to make a case against him. Why focus so much on him then? Maybe just to divert attention from Anacletus, while you still play it safe with voting for him? There is simply an inconsistency between time you spent on BioSC and real committment onto his case.
Darkfirex5 also posted the following:
+ Show Spoiler +I guess no one listened to me about the switch of the bandwagon with no solid evidence compared to the "safer" bet with Anacletus, I'll be going over the people who switch vote, i gtg for now but i believe i saw a mafia group bandwagoning to get it started. <-- ill be looking into that
Which means he is totally ignoring my post about him. Just a general statement of regret and a somehow flawed logic of a "safer bet". I believe we have quite established that Anacletus can easily be lynched later if the need arises. Anyone else up for pressuring him as well?
Hyaach just believes me to be suspicious, I can assure you Hyaach that feeling is mutual.
We probably should discuss BKE's thought as well. His last suspects were dahdum, mufaa and unforgiven.
I suspect dahdum as well and have Mufaa on my radar now. I had at first not suspected unforgiven, but his posts during night make me slightly suspicious of him.
First of this one:
+ Show Spoiler +On May 12 2012 10:13 Unforgiven_ve wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2012 05:35 austinmcc wrote:
...
As I count it, but don't take it as gospel. If you are thinking of swapping, and Hyaach was suspicious this morning and waiting to see Brood's response, that could potentially take us to 5/4, with 4 undecideds. We NEED active town to do anything though, otherwise we're already locked in. Mafia's got 3 votes to throw around, we might have a no-vote or two, so we just need clear decisions and stances. I keep reading and reading and dont see anywhere how to get that information about "3 mafias" why are you so sure? Maybe it could be 4? 2 is too few and 5 too much, you wrote that whit so much security(sp?) and you started the wagon against BKW... tell me, why are you so sure about being 3 mafias?
He grabs a tidbit of austinmcc about the mafiacount as an attempt maybe to discredit the case and the austin with it. I feel that this "evidence" is sorely lacking as it seems like quite the logical conclusion to say that there are 3 mafia. It could be the beginning of setting up austinmcc for lynch at day based on the mislynch of BKE.
His other post is this one: On May 12 2012 12:50 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
Guys, I just relized something, we should not discuss anything at night, that's just helps the mafia, they will get
The player whit the better read. We should wait and don't make any deep analysis, what do you think?
I responded to his thought process at the beginning of this post so let's see what his motivation for it might have been:
1) Genuinly concerned about the possibility of the good reading players being sniped at night.
2) Attempt to quelch night discussion to stop town from gathering information.
If we assume 1), follow the logic of the beginning of my post. We need information and night discussion also helps blue roles to maybe balance out the night actions of scum. There is no reason to stop discusssing!
2) actually makes sense if we consider unforgiven scum. Going through his filter again I saw some inconsistencies.
First of all he has a low postcount. His suspectlist seems to be: Anacletus, Mufaa, jailbreaker, Crossfire99 and me. He does no further action against any of these. Concerning his actions around the BKE lynch his votepost is actually not too shabby:
+ Show Spoiler +On May 12 2012 07:12 Unforgiven_ve wrote:I think anacletus did us not good playing the way he has, i want to belive its a mafia "strategy" but its just too risky(¿?), after reading austinmcc and seeing Anacletus doesnt represent a thread anymore ( im sure this will strike us some other way in the future), if BKE flips blue/town as Shaopi says, we are at 0 again thanks to Anacletus. I repeat, i dont like to be guided this easily, but i see a case, i see reasons, and i see lack of response from the accused party. I have made up my mind after readin all posts and seeing RKE lacks of defense after the high pressure...also, this is golden Mufaa, it just raised my "interest" on you. + Show Spoiler +On May 12 2012 06:18 Mufaa wrote:
Like I've been saying since my first post, I think Ana is bad town more than mafia. Every scummy thing he has done has been so scummy that if he was Mafia his partners would be berating him so bad he probably would have stopped posting instead of digging himself into this giant hole he's made.
.... and i agree 100% on your jailbraker FOS as i stated hours before, pointing a friend maybe?... but i think we should wait a little more. ##Vote BroodKingEXE
But between his last post, which was still in the Anacletus discussion and his first post about BKE are around 6 hours of time. It could naturally be due to timeconstraints so let's take a closer look on his votepost.
There are a lot of general statements and sheeping of reasons. He goes on to stress his disdain for bandwagoning and throws in a suspicion of Mufaa without a good reason (at least to me. We all agree that Anacletus' play was terrible and Mufaa's statement is pretty common sense.).
Of course these things are not enough for a case against unforgiven yet, but for now:
##FOS unforgiven_ve
That does not mean that I am not following the others on my shortlist, but I believe we might have to look at him a lot more closely than before.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
On May 13 2012 01:37 Unforgiven_ve wrote:Fair enough. First of all, my post about not posting any real deep analysis at night is genuine, i dont want a mafia to kill a good "investigator", as i said at beggining, english is not my native language, so trying to make BIG post sometimes its a bit difficult. You can see im not the only one suspecting of Mufaa, im just not buying that kind of "clean play", no time to play, a couple of long depth analysis post, go back to lurk and come whit another "great" analysis. The thing about austin was, i didnt saw anywhere where you can get the scum quantity, seeing the description of the game you can see we can get from 2 to 4 ( Roles), i just pointed that out, and asked him why, it seemed weird to me he just said there were 3 mafias so casually. 3rd. If you see my filter, you can find that i really think Anacletus was a REALLY BAD town player, of course i had my suspicions on him, but that wasnt enough, whit austin post, things seemed to make a little more sense, and as you said, when i came to post i see this new case and had to make a "pretty fast" choice, seeing as my evidence/suspicions on other players are still not enough. Now, is this post just to prove me and divert my first suspicions on you? Why you stoped talking and using your BIG list? Now that you have more information i would like to see a Refresh in you list please.
I can understand why you may want to caution against nightposting but as I stated already I believe nightdiscussion to be usefull to us either way since not only scum does action but also blues and if you get hit at night and you still had good thoughts they are lost to town. So better post them now.
Regarding Mufaa, I have him on my radar as well, but my interest on your suspicion of him is, why did you bring him up? Especially since the quote you base that suspicion on seems pretty standard and is pretty much austinmcc's reasoning from before in different wording. Furthermore your votepost begins debating about the decision to vote either Anacletus or BKE, but suddenly you just feel like throwing another candidate out based on a single tidbit? That is the thing which makes me dubious of you.
On to the numbers of scum, I also assumed 3 scum since the beginning of the game and mentioned it on my list, so it is weird that you suddenly call austin out on this issue if you left me out. (although you do suspect me anyway)
As I said in my first "longer" nightpost I was not suspicious of you for your voting process, I did not even mention it in my suspicion-post against you, so why do you bring it up again? This seems really confusing to me.
I probably would have responded to your suspicions if you actually made a solid case based on them. As it stands now you believe me scummy for posting a long analysis, which was intended to start discussion, which it did. I posted that entire list to give everyone my opinions until then and content to discuss. I stopped posting for a simple reason, I went to bed. I know it says "Taiwan" next to me but I am living in Germany and therefore my timezone is CEST, feel free to compare the timestamps of my last post on that day with the next one. If it is still suspicious to you I cannot help you.
On the question why I stopped using the list. First reason is that it fulfilled its purpose more discussion material on day 1. Next reason is that I had made myself clear that I was intending to pressure Anacletus first, which I did, until austinmcc made his case, convincing me to apply pressure on BKE. So there was no reason to use it again. I have a list in my head and do my posts with it in mind.
You want to see a refreshed and updated list? Fine, give me some time to look through each and every filter again and I can deliver it to you.
I fail to see how it makes me look suspicious but whatever.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
If it did not became clear enough since I was defending myself in the last paragraph, I still remain suspicious of unforgiven_ve.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
.... knew it was coming. GG!
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
Ahh.. sad times for us townies I guess. But activity (or lack thereof) really punished us I guess.
Could the OP post the QT of Mafia? I would be really interested in it 
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
Wow I really was number one on your hitlist :D
I also got the same question as all of us, any particular advice on my play?
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EPT
