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sorry if that sounded like i was trying to talk down your work.
just think it through like youre scum.
you need to kill the blue roles, especially the cop.
every day you dont kill them cop someone will be peeked. say the cop randomly picks his target you have a 2/9 chance of half your team being revealed. and if nobody from your team gets peeked youre still in a bad spot because there is one more clear towny.
so considering there were 3 claims yesterday the mafia has to think through their options.
kill one of the claimed blues? youre probably out of the question since a medic will likely heal you whether youre the real cop or not.
shooting a medic gets more complicated since we have 2 claims and if one of those is a scum they will have a hard time shooting the other one since it puts them into a bad light.
now lets say that there even is the slightest doubt that youre not the real cop the mafia will go and shoot who they think is the best player and hope he is medic.
or they look for someone awkwardly responding to your claim and shoot him.
or for any other tiny clue that gives them reason to believe he might be the cop.
im trying to say that the mafia shouldnt just kill him because of what he said. and they probably didnt.
he was a clear-ish player that made good posts. this singlehandedly is more of a reason to kill him than any of his posts alone.
another reason not to aim at the medic would be that Gummy/Claw are v/v and the mafia wants to go for easy mislynches.
since if their t/t any way one flips after he gets lynched will probably get the other lynched too.
theres a lot of stuff to keep in mind here and tbh its 9am and i havent slept yet. im not saying my reasons are perfect, nor am i saying yours are dumb.
i just want to find scum.
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waaaaaait a secoond.
i just realised that in the setups i posted on page5 every mafiateam had a roleblocker.
this kinda changes everything. uargh...
i need more coffee.
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imo Matriarch is a good peek. If Firm doesnt peek her she will probably be lynched at some point.
And i just threw the gummy/claw v/v thing out there. If im scum and gummy/claw are v/v i will probably let the village take care of it. (no i wouldnt, id kill gummy so fast your head would spin  ).
But I didnt realise that if there is a medic there probably is a roleblocker too.
So why didnt they just roleblock one of the medics and go for Firm? If it fails they block the other one today.
Something doesnt add up here.
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On May 04 2012 17:01 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2012 16:16 paschl wrote:
im trying to say that the mafia shouldnt just kill him because of what he said. and they probably didnt.
he was a clear-ish player that made good posts. this singlehandedly is more of a reason to kill him than any of his posts alone.
I agree with your general sentiment. However, I don't agree with your conclusion(See bold). I think mafia should willing to take the risk of killing someone who actively suspects them, especially if said person wasn't particularly active but was decidedly pro-town. Furthermore, I don't believe that risk to be a bad move for the mafia to take. It's a risk that has a great payoff in the long run because they'll have one less person scrutinizing their play later on. They are insured of their action because of WIFOM. Your theory that they just killed a good player regardless of his posts is perfectly plausible due to WIFOM, but we shouldn't rule out the possibility that the mafia went for their biggest threat because we think it would be a bad move for them to make. It's hard for me to explain myself with so little sleep on hand. I'm going to get some shut-eye, so I'll be back later. Hopefully we can draw some info out of Ace and Ange today.
The thing is they dont have to kill him
They can just try to convince him itt that theyre not scum. Killing him on night 1 puts them out there. Especially after the day 1 we had.
Who suspected a demorcerf kill? Everybody is gonna look over his posts and see what he can find.
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Its a good peek because she is inactive, it makes the mafia get rid of her for us (sorry matriarch ^^).
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On May 04 2012 22:48 Gummy wrote:
So cool. I'm alive. I'm going to take another strategy and simply comment on what I see. Apparently game theoretic logic is not a good way to convince people of arguments on forum mafia.
My explanation is that claw has enough confidence in his explanation of his illogical behavior to waste a night kill to, instead of kill me, attempt to discredit me.
My post history stands. Mafia did not make the right play tonight, but I will let that be their problem ^_^
Gummi you saw the setups i posted earlier itt right?
Every wolf team had a roleblocker. So why wouldnt claw just block you and kill Firm?
The day after it would just be the same story again, both of you claim your heal was blocked.
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i think i know why you dodged the question of how many games youve played Gummy.
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Neil degrasse tyson is always a welcome addition to any thread.
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Ange is a towny.
I still think dahdum is a good lynch.
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Im most likely not gonna be around for the eod....
Looks like my soccer team is gonna be relegated and i need some way to deal with the frustration....
How about we just lynch one of claw/gummy tonight to get the claims right?
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##Vote: No Lynch
maybe its best to take the no lynch today..
im not gonna be useful and im not confident in any vote im going to make.
perhaps we can make the mafia untangle the medic situation.
at this point im starting to trust firm is the cop since i cant see nobody counterclaim in a newbie game.
newbie game is the point btw gummy. you cant expect everyone to play optimal in a newbie game. i dont even think you can expect everyone to know what the optimal play is.
the mafia kill is a perfect example of it.
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and fwiw selfvoting is almost never the optimal play 
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I suggested no lynch because the mafia has to start going after blues soon.
And i seriously doubt there being a framer or godfather, they would seriously fuck the balance of a small game.
Every day the cop lives we have another clear player in addition to the claimable roles.
If we want to lynch fro claw/gummy id vote claw. Im still tempted to vote gummy but the chances of the mafia claiming medic first are so much greater than the chances of the mafia counterclaiming a medic claim on day1.
And Köln 
My heart got broken today. Well thats not entirely true, my heart got broken every game this season.
:'(
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On May 06 2012 07:20 Gummy wrote:
You have lynched an innocent townie!
?
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whats this gummy? i have no idea what youre doing.
that post i quoted earlier looks like a mafia claim to me.
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grmpf should i vote claw now?
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dont lay this one me what the heck this isnt my day..
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##Unvote:No Lynch
##vote:Clawtrocity
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##Unvote:No Lynch
##vote:Clawtrocity
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sorry if youre a towny claw..
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EPT
