EPTSign me up. Learnt a lot from the first game and hope to put it to use this time. Less raw analysis, more thought and looking at the big picture
Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia XI
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Sign me up. Learnt a lot from the first game and hope to put it to use this time. Less raw analysis, more thought and looking at the big picture | ||
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A great day 1 post, we're on a spaceship! Some interesting things going into this game. There is specifically a rule stating that "no lynch" is a valid vote. As this is my first game with this is an option, I thought it was worth stating my stance on this. In the absence of any cases with substance, I see "no lynch" as a potentially good day 1 option as it means we have a chance of avoiding a day 1 town miss-lynch. However, a good case against someone and pressuring lurkers would override this for me. Lurking does not help town, so let's get the discussion going. | ||
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On April 27 2012 00:31 AcesAnoka wrote: Hello everyone! This is my first game of mafia but I already love it! The theme is amazing too, we're on a spaceship! On a more serious note, I think we've established that Day 1 should be a No-lynch, we should wait and see how the first night develops. HOWEVER, if its blatantly obvious that there IS one trying to hide something, not saying anything, things could change around. Thoughts? I don't think we've established that Day 1 should be a no-lynch at all. A few people have merely stated that in the absence of a better case that would be a preferred option. @Splinter[eP] - while you raise a good point, I don't think mafia would typically be pro no-lynch day 1, as early town miss-lynches are common and it would be easy for them to slip by without getting much notice (while an innocent townie is killed off). | ||
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On April 27 2012 00:58 Jailbreaker wrote: Pure-SC2 - The no lynch is a terrible idea. Misslynch is collateral damage. It happens. Gotta say, I don't think much of your view on miss-lynching. | ||
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You can quote multiple people in the same post by using copy and paste. Quote post, copy, then paste into another link. Not hard. Click the "all" button next to the page numbers to see all pages. Surely you aren't this blind and asked these inane questions to clutter up the thread for some reason? | ||
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On April 27 2012 16:05 Jailbreaker wrote: Semi Long Post Warning + Show Spoiler + These are my thoughts so far on what has been posted. right or wrong, this is my interpretation. On April 27 2012 02:57 yomi wrote: these players havent posted: whysomuch mordanis calls them out for lurking: bandwagon under construction On April 27 2012 03:24 yomi wrote: ya rando lynch is bad that's 25% I think to hit which is not profit. But you only need 25 more points to get to 50% and then we are in profit territory so we'll see how it plays out. if everyone is getting along friendly and lurking all day like they are now then we can't do anything. and being useless: bandwagon mobilized. On April 27 2012 03:52 Mordanis wrote: Shit. I was asleep or at class until now. Anyways, I personally think that a lynch on the first day would be a mistake. I haven't followed much mafia, played before, or read as much as I should have, and so my personal view is that it would be a shame to lynch someone solely based on trying to trim down the total pool of people in the spaceship. OHMIGOSH was called a lurker! time to panic! On April 27 2012 04:00 Mordanis wrote: As an addendum to my previous post, it is going to be hard to judge whether someone is lurking or just sleeping, seeing as we have people from USA, Europe, and even South Pacific. Since days are 24 hours and nights are 48 hours, I definitely think that you need to wait for a fairly long time (I'm thinking about 9 hours), because people do occasionally sleep If nothing else, at least for first little bit we should tell everyone our relative schedules so that there is no misunderstanding. To start this off, I will be going to class in about an hour, and after that I'll be able to post maybe once before going to work until about 10:30ish PM (AZ time) Tries to clear lurker name. because hey, this is a gobal game right? somepeople might need more time. seemsreasonabletome. On April 27 2012 05:27 Lazermonkey wrote: But yet your own post doesn't really contribute much at all. If you think not enough people are posting or that they are posting useless stuff, wouldn't it be better if you did some analysis yourself? I think everyone are conscious about that we have mafia among us and everyone would like to avoid dumb misslynches. You are stating the obvious here. Your post is even a bit counterproductive in that you discouraging people from making posts about lynch/no lynch. Afaik there isn't much else to talk about atm but please let us know if there is something. Talking about peoples opinions about lynching gives us a tell on their gameplan/motives etc. so I find nothing bad with it. I'm off to bed now. There is a chance that I will not be able to post to much untill 20:00 CEST tomorrow. You're right, I should put more analysis into my posts. On April 27 2012 10:22 WhySoMuch wrote: Hey all, This is my first game on this site, but I have played WW elsewhere so I'm not a total newbie. First off, with regards to No-Lynch, this is a very bad idea. We have 2 kills a day as of right now, the vig and the lynch, by negating a kill we are automatically giving the wolves an edge by not taking advantage of our kill-rate. Also, even though a villager is more likely to be lynched, the information we gain via wagon analysis, late vote changes etc. becomes very valuable as we progress through the game. And a random question: Is there any way to get more posts per page? Right now mine is set to default and couldnt find a way to make me see more posts. Idk if it's possible. totally not drawing attention to myself Page 5 is the Yomi versus WhySoMuch showdown Yomi votes for whysomuch, whysomuch votes for The_Zen_Man (where did this come from?) they talk about win rates for town correctly lynching and whatnot I vote for Yomi because I feel like you are starting a bandwagon against whysomuch so early in the game then he asks why i voted for him. I think that is suspicious. then On April 27 2012 12:38 nreekay324 wrote: they're almost as bad as vampires ##vote: whysomuch so confused by this, dont know what to say. next is: On April 27 2012 13:16 WhySoMuch wrote: nreekay's vote on me is weirder than yomi I think I see this as: "YOMI has a reason to vote for me. Nreekay is prolly jumping on the bandwagon" O.Golden_ne - obvious critical analysis out in the open. BOOM CHECK IT next set of posts is my fail vote, lol. I vote for yomi for reasons stated above Mordanis- i think he is just trying to keep a "netural" image. I'm totally against the witchhunt too, I will put more analysis into posts. Regarding your post. - Why is pointing out lurkers a bandwagon under construction? If that's how you interpret it, then what the hell is this post from you? On April 27 2012 16:47 Jailbreaker wrote: As posted in Mordanis posts: "it is going to be hard to judge whether someone is lurking or just sleeping" There are several who have very few posts: Starting from "day one" Lazermonkey with 2 Pure-SC2 with 3 The_Zen_Man with 1 Veriat with 3 Splinter[eP] with 1 nreekay324 with 3 AcesAnoka with 2 everyone else has at least +7 posts. more posts, more to analyze - You think that it's suspicious that Yomi asks why voted for him after you didn't state a reason? What?! I vote for Yomi because I feel like you are starting a bandwagon against whysomuch so early in the game then he asks why i voted for him. I think that is suspicious. - On top of that you've tried to shut down valid discussion on no lynch, and have stated you don't care if we miss-lynch because collateral damage happens. I'm not sure about you. Seems too aggressive to be scummy, but something seems off. | ||
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The only other thing you've stated is not wanting to rush to voting. That is all you've contributed. What is your read on Jailbreaker? From everyones posts so far, who are the two people you find most suspicious? | ||
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On April 27 2012 18:32 WhySoMuch wrote: No Lynching today is about the worse thing we can do today. Why? Would miss-lynching a townie make you happy? What makes you think we don't get information from No Lynch winning the vote? | ||
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On April 27 2012 18:44 WhySoMuch wrote: Lol no it wouldn't make me happy, but the information we gain from it outweighs the negative. We don't get information from No Lynch because no one dies. The only way we get information is if there is a competing wagon against it, and in that case, that information isn't useful until that said competing wagon dies. The information we gain today (whether we push a lynch on a suspected scum, a lurker or a no lynch) all provides us information based on who votes for what, and the reasons why. It's not always clear on Day 1 what this information means, and the game cannot be won or lost on Day 1. If there are no solid scum reads (with supporting cases), and no clear lurker lynch, then why push a lynch on a possible townie? Then we are one townie down and giving an advantage to the scum. So I'd say regardless of what or who is voted for, we gain information. So considering you are pushing for a lynch regardless, who is your strongest scum read? The_Zen_Man? | ||
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Give us some original analysis on someone that isn't based on something already posted. | ||
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On April 27 2012 22:48 The_Zen_Man wrote: Also, concerning the second quote, you should read my post. I didn't say that scum would be opposed to a nolynch, simply that they would rather push for a lynch on a innocent townie than miss that chance to kill. This is the point I think most people miss when discussing this. All of the discussion around it and eventual votes on whoever is all information for us. Even peoples stances on it gives some clues as to what they are thinking and help build the picture of peoples motives as the days roll on. | ||
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You need to explain why you voted for whysomuch. FoS: @nreekay324 | ||
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So we're playing a newbie game here, for people who've played 3 or less games. yet here he is so ingrained in his Wolves/Villages thing that he can't even proof read his posts to change it to reflect the fact we're playing Mafia here, on the TL mafia forums, in which everyone else is referencing mafia/scum and townies? How many games do you have to have played to get it that ingrained in your head? And after its been mentioned by a few people, why wouldn't he make any effort to do something about it? Yet his posts seem well thought out and carefully worded. He goes on and asks the most basic fundamental questions that can be answered by using the tiniest bit of logical thought (how to quote posts and view more posts on a page), which doesn't line up with the fact that his posts seem to be well thought out and logical. I don't trust him. It's like he's playing this naive, simpleton role here so that he won't come under suspicion. | ||
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You're voting for The_Zen_Man because you're puzzled by the "lynch no lynch" discussion, and you find his overal playstyle fishy. Well, what about his playstyle do you find fishy? Quote what it is that stands out for you. At the moment, you've just raised yourself a few notches higher on the scumdar. | ||
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@The_Zen_Man - we wanted Veriat to post more, why when he does is that in itself suspicious? | ||
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If you genuinely think he is suspicious, give your vote some substance by explaining exactly why you are convinced he is scum and should be lynched tonight. "several other players have raised concerns" is just a useless bandwagony reason and doesn't cut it for me. He needs to do the same thing with his case against you. Just because he hasn't doesn't mean you can get away with doing the same thing to him. | ||
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O.Golden_ne posted a good case against him which seems to have some merit, as has Splinter[eP]. That takes the count up to 4 on AcecAnoka I believe. | ||
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Who actually has a solid scum read on either of them? 2 people have made reasonable cases against AcecAnoka after which he's been bandwagoned up to 4 votes. On Veriant, The_Zen_Man has made a reasonable case against him while yomi's on him for lurking. Our werewolf loving friend has now bandwagoned on here with no reasoning other than "because Veriant looks extremely bad right now" taking it up to 3. So the questions are, who looks scumier, AcecAnoka or Veriant? And if the answer is neither, or not conclusive, then who is pushing for their lynches and why? | ||
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WhySoMuch seems to like the bandwagon based of who's voting for AcecAnoka, not because he think's he's scum. Hmm. | ||
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There is still plenty of time left to vote and I'm busy looking at who's doing what and trying to understand why. Suggest you do the same. | ||
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Why are you voting for AcesAnoka? | ||
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He has a weak case on The_Zen_Man which even after building on, doesn't really say anything to make me see what he is getting at. The basis of it is that The_Zen_Man is fishy, and was overly defensive. So in the back and forth between Veriant and The_Zen_Man, I get a stronger town read on The_Zen_Man and thought his case on Veriant had some good merit. When I look at Veriant's filter I see these constant attempts to fit in with everyone else without really contributing. When he did finally contribute there was no substance, just feeding off other peoples posts. It's not looking good. AcecAnoka looks suspicious, I'd have to agree with that. I haven't heard enough from him to push for a lynch unless we're lynching him for lurking, but at this stage as he doesn't have a vote he is liable to be mod killed. I'm curious where Yomi is at and what he thinks of todays developments. ##vote: Veriat | ||
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##Vote: Veriat | ||
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I'm not saying AcesAnoka doesn't look suspicious because he most certainly does, but Veriats filter plays out like someone trying hard to fit in with everyones views, has avoided posting anything original (until essentially forced into it), and when he did it was weak and lacking any substance. All of which I can see a scummy motivation behind. | ||
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nreekay324 - His filter reads suspicious to me. I see a vote for WhySoMuch, follwed by an unbolded unvote. He then leaves it at that. He makes no comment against the most suspicious person in the game so far, who was proven to be mafia. So he votes for WhySoMuch, and has FoS against Golden, Me, Yomi and The_Zen_Man (incidently all of which voted for Veriat). Very suspicious. Jailbreaker - I've had an off read on him from the beginning. There isn't a lot there to analyse. However he does come in a few hours before the lynch deadline and posts in a sort of defense against AcesAnoka, saying we don't have enough info to point fingers at him. How does he feel about Veriat? Other than pointing him out in a post about Lurkers (which includes 6 others), he doesn't seem to have any scum read on him other than pointing out one of his posts sounds like a regurgitation on Golden's posts. Other notes: AcesAnoka - not sure about him, but do note that he doesn't have an opinion on Veriat until after he's flipped mafia. I get a novice townie feel here, but it is suspicious that he doesn't mention Veriat. Worth keeping an eye on. WhySoMuch - flipped around a lot prior to the voting deadline. I don't like seeing this though in this instance not sure it means anything. If he was scum I don't think he'd state he was certain I was town, but then I didn't think Veriat would say he looked scummy before flipping mafia. For what it's worth, Lazermonkey never had any posted suspicions on Veriat. Not saying this means anything, just noting for the record. | ||
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 Although it's sad we lost yomi in the night, I think getting the successful lynch on day 1 is a huge plus for us, and means we can push to lynch any lurkers meaning everyone has to stay active during this day. So lets stay active, and either identify who's lurking and/or who are the most suspicious people out there. For starters, I want to here my top scum reads respond to my comments on them - thats means you nreekay324 and Jailbreaker. | ||
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Mafia hit people for a reason. What was the reason behind yomi getting whacked? Well in the course of day 1, other than getting annoyed by WhySoMuch, he had genuine suspicions of two people, Veriat and nreekay324. We know one of them was scum, and nreekay324 is my strongest scum read (refer to my night post just before the deadline). If you were the two remaining mafia, and you had seem yomi lead the lynch on one of your scum buddies, and he had found you suspicious, wouldn't that make him a good target? Interesting points related to the hit on yomi: - After the first day post, nreekay324 states "looks like my suspicions about yomi may have been wrong though..." - this is interesting in that if nreekay324 knows yomi is about to die and flip town it's a good way to clear himself from his earlier stated suspicions of yomi. - People who found yomi suspicious: Jailbreaker, AcesAnoka, nreekay324 | ||
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You're tunneling him hard, and with no case to back it up its essentially cluttering up the thread. | ||
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Marvellosity - welcome to the game. We're going to need you to go through everything as much as possible and give us your reads. I appreciate it's hard coming in late like this, and AcesAnoka has done you no favours in the things he has posted. The_Zen_Man - I have 100% town certainty on you. I liked your case, and there is definitely some merit there, but there are also a few areas that do point WhySoMuch as town. I have a very mixed read on him and regardless of what his actual alignment is, I don't trust him or his posting style at all. I'm going to go through the Jailbreaker files in more detail as I've had a scum read on him since very early on. On top of that, it's really over to Splinter and Marvellosity to contribute. | ||
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On May 01 2012 12:03 marvellosity wrote: To Pure: I see you posted two scumreads. Which would you prefer to lynch today and why? Well, since my posting them, there have been some good developments (including your arrival) that have put more information out there for everyone. As I posted yesterday, nreekay was my strongest read but he made a good post that seemed a marked improvement over his earlier posts. However, I hadn't seen it the way Mordanis had, who raised a really good point in that it seemed contrived. However, nreekay has since posted further and I think for the moment has lowered his scum rating in my eyes but will remain a person of suspicion for me. Jailbreaker has moved to the top of my list and he is now receiving a lot of heat. What is his response to the cases against him? He's remained silent through it all further increasing suspicion. At this stage he would be my prime lynch candidate. Splinter - well he's either uninterested town or lurky mafia. He's contributed nothing to this day and his last post was that he'll dump his thoughts when he gets home from work. Where is this post? Marvellosity - I think you've done a good job so far, but I think Golden had a good point regarding your focus on WhySoMuch. So based on your filter reviews, who are your strongest scum reads and why? WhySoMuch - he is causing so much confusion and distraction with the way he is posting. I actually have a neutral read on him but my plan is to just ignore him for now. He's either playing a very deep and layered deception play or has so many bad preconceived notions of what to look for that it's just not worth engaging in. He may need to be looked at closer depending on what happens over the day/night cycle. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + [QUOTE]On May 01 2012 18:26 Lazermonkey wrote: I'll post the second part of my thoughts of all the players so far, first one can be found here : ). + Show Spoiler + My reads so far, from most likely town to dunno relly to most likely scum: Nova/The_Zen_Man - Like everyone already said, their actions can't be explained in any other way that they are twonies. AcesAnoka - My prime suspect from day 1. Like a said before, Him being scum doesn't make alot of sense to me atm. Mafia would just spread votes between him and Verait. However I think that he is play is quite strange. The only thing he posted after he got him from the wedding was some excuses and this: On April 29 2012 18:03 AcesAnoka wrote: EDIT: Just read through the whole thread and from what i've seen Veriat looked very suspicious, if I were there my vote would've gone to him too. I already thought it was strange that he was lurking so hard and his reasoning behind his voting was not much. This is just so strange to say imo. This would be a somewhat safe way to say that he is town because Veriat DID in fact flip scum but what if he wouldn't have? We will never know which is why I feel this post is just so unnecessary. Aces, I'm leaning town on you but not because of your play. Step up and contribute! WhySoMuch - Orginally you were town for me. But I share the concerns of Golden against you. I am also a bit puzzled by your night play also feel. Sure you added some cool points, but why not do it later? This would ensure that scum had no time to switch their votes if you really were that afraid of getting killed. On April 29 2012 08:50 WhySoMuch wrote: I think I'm going to get all my thoughts out there during this night period because I believe I am a likely target for tonight's kill. Hence my posting. The Mafia isn't stupid and they know who they should kill, posting isn't really gonna give them any clues on who to kill. Obviously you could also try to level with them if you are not a power role to draw the kill as well. If you choose not to post I don't think it's a bad thing, but I think we can use tonight to get a jump on tomorrow I also don't like this post. Feels like you are baiting medics/jailers here. Jailbreaker - Not posting much that can be usefull as of yet. And he just added this post: On April 30 2012 16:13 Jailbreaker wrote: Mordanis - + Show Spoiler + All I get is a scum vibe from you on this post. But i feel like i don't have enough info on you to make a significant case against you. Seeing how I take individual posts instead of looking at the context of the posts. will post more when i have a goodnight sleep Which only increases my suspicion of him. If you check his filter you can also spot of mass escuses on why he is posting so "scummy" things. His play with yomi/Verait also is pointing towards him being scum but people have already talked about that enough, which is why I don't include it in this post. Overall this is my strongest scumread atm. I am too lazy to complete the list as I havn't really got very strong reads of Mordanis, Splinter[eP], nreekay324 and golden(don't think I missed anyone, did I?). Will update this post later on with my read on theese guys! Marvellosity - I claimed Aces to be town not due to his play but due to the events of D1 even though his own play were quite strange. So far your play seems town to me, and my view on you/Aces is unchanged. Mordanis - You pushed the lynch at Veriat harder than most people. Arguable maybe the hardest. You will remain town for me for at least some time. Golden - This is a harder one, your vote D1 seems WIFOM to discuss. Either your scum and you tried to save Verait as hard as you possibly could. Not voting Verait make you look scummy. You can also be town and just didn't think he was scum. Other than that, your play seems okay. The only thing a find a little strange is that excluding the first half of D1 Jailbreaker havn't been on your list of suspicious people at all. What is your opinion on him? Do you think that he is town now and if so, why? My impression from this post is that you still find him somewhat suspicious, but it's hard to make any analysis on this matter as it is the first time you mention him since D1: [QUOTE]On May 01 2012 11:23 O.Golden_ne wrote: 1. Nreekay324 You posted a decent argument against Jailbreaker in a spoiler on your D1 Summary post. [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=331498&user=248687]Nreekay324's Filter[/url] What would it take to change your vote from AcesAnoka (marvellosity) in the same post, to Jailbreaker? I feel like your argument against Jailbreaker looks stronger than this one against AcesAnoka (marvellosity): [quote] A number of arguments have been made, and not much to add to them because he hasn’t been posting much. He, like other lurkers, should be pressured D2. What got the successful D1 lynch was from pressuring lurkers (yomi called out veriat for this very reason). We need to keep this up.[/quote] [/QUOTE] Overall Golden seems town atm but that is subject to change. nreekay324 - Hmm, I clearly feel your activity during D1 wasn't great at all. You only posts were mostly centered around yomi being scum, which we for sure isn't true now. Your latest post was good tho and you answered for at least some of the allegations against you. The only thing about this post is that is confusing to me is your vote on Aces: + Show Spoiler + [QUOTE]On May 01 2012 01:52 nreekay324 wrote: Jailbreaker 1) Only vote on yomi, and yomi was shot night cycle. 2) Posts don’t seem to have a lot of content, there’s a lot of summary and weak accusations/ questioning. 3) This quote in particular; [QUOTE]On April 29 2012 04:09 Jailbreaker wrote: nonononononono water you guys doin? you planet all wrong. Can't you see that other players are trying to rush people into a decision so fast?? Just because we dun have a majority vote, doesn't mean we should rush. Even though I voted for Yomi so fast in the game, i didn't rush. Just like what golden says, stay clam and dont panic. I know its fail logic right here, no apollo-gies here on my part. [/QUOTE] This was a decent amount of time before the lynch-veriat train really started rolling, jailbreaker tries to advocate against it. He doesn’t provide any case in favor of Veriat however, and just side-steps the issue. 4) And then this, [QUOTE]On April 30 2012 16:13 Jailbreaker wrote: Since I voted to horribly wrong, I'm going to delay my vote until it is closer to the deadline. [/QUOTE] It’s like jailbreaker wants to let other people make cases for him, so that he can choose the safest one to vote for and thus remain safe. 4) Was on Veriat’s “scum” list. I”ll defer to whysomuch for this; [QUOTE]On April 29 2012 09:12 WhySoMuch wrote: [QUOTE]On April 28 2012 18:26 Veriat wrote: Ok here are my thoughts on who are the scum: The_Zen_Man nreekay324 Jailbreaker Acesanoka + Show Spoiler + A number of arguments have been made, and not much to add to them because he hasn’t been posting much. He, like other lurkers, should be pressured D2. What got the successful D1 lynch was from pressuring lurkers (yomi called out veriat for this very reason). We need to keep this up. ##vote: AcesAnoka ##FOS: Jailbreaker [/QUOTE] Sense is not made here. I don't really understand why you are voting Aces at all. Overall, your gameplay is at times good and at times quite confusing and I'm not sure whether you newbie town or scum. Splinter - Lurking at the moment, and havn't been posting anything of substance since D1, where he posted a case vs Aces. He was the one who started the suspicion on Aces. Can't do to much analysis in this case as it's very WIFOM. Either he is scum and wanted to capitalize on the confusion in Aces posts or he was town and thought the play in fact was scummy. Needs to be stepping up hardcore. Conclusion/TL;DR Townies: The_Zen_Man Pure Dunno yet: O.Golden_ne(although I'm leaning town here) Marvellosity(same as above) Mordanis(same as above) WhySoMuch nreekay324 Scum: Splinter[eP](due to lurking) Jailbreaker(strongest read due to major holes and confusion in play) Hi, just one thing - on your comments against Golden and his voting behaviour at the end of Day 1. I really don't see a scum play here, I actually see the opposite. Golden had a case against Aces (which was closely aligned with my own thoughts on him), and prior to the shift onto Veriat had already stated his suspicions on him. At the time I voted for Veriat, I had scum readings on both Veriat and Aces, however did feel stronger towards my read on Veriat which was what influenced my vote. When I read Golden's filter at the time, he wanted people to explain why they thought Veriat was more suspicious than Aces which is exactly what I wanted as well. He made his vote in the hour leading up to the deadline and I cannot see a scum motivation for this as it sealed the fate of Veriat the scum to be lynched. If he was scum, there was absolutely no reason to make that vote. Other than that, I have similar reads to you (I need more from Marvellosity at this stage, and have nreekay as a possible scum read) and like your contribution. | ||
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In answer to your question, no I'm not sure that he's scum and not just bad town. I wasn't certain about Veriat either, but felt that I was basing my vote on what I classed as scummy behaviour, which I feel can be applied to Jailbreaker as well. On your second nagging feeling, it's an interesting one that I was grappling with yesterday. So I'm going to go over the thoughts I had around this. What do we know? Veriat wasn't very good at being mafia. He was suspicious enough to get a majority vote on day 1. This means that the actions he did make (i.e. his posts) potentially contain more info in the shape of scum slips, or inexperienced scum posts based on whatever co-ordination is going on between the scum team. He posted scum reads on 3 players; The_Zen_Man, nreekay and Jailbreaker. The reasoning behind each of these was bad (a big part of the suspicions against him). This came after there were 2 votes on him, and there were 2 on Aces at around the same time. This came just after he admitted he was looking pretty scummy, so I think we can assume he was feeling the pressure. So the questions I have from this based on Veriat being bad/inexperienced mafia who is under some pressure and already admitting he looks scummy: 1). Is it time to try and distance yourself from your scum buddies by posting your own reads that contain 1 or 2 of them? (I think it unlikely to include 2 of them, but could very well include 1) 2). Or, do you try to create hollow cases against townies to try and move the heat off to someone else? - Note: I have a town read on The_Zen_Man so it makes sense for him to be number 1 on Veriats scum list regardless of the answer above. What are the motivations behind his scum read post? In his scum post, Veriat has this to say about WhySoMuch: On a side note i did find Why_So_Much's playstyle kind of off, but i don't think he's scum, because then why would you vote for him? I find this statement interesting in the context of knowing Veriat is scum, and bad/inexperienced scum at that. It's WIFOM, but what is his motivation for saying he doesn't think WhySoMuch is scum at this point? Maybe it's too obvious, but it's the only other read he makes. | ||
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Splinter was going to post when he got home from work and never did. What does this say? Maybe not much but he's fallen into heavily lurking state after being quite active during day 1. Jailbreaker has made absolutely no response to the cases against him. | ||
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Based on all the information to date, my strongest read is on Jailbreaker. I share the same niggles Marvellosity stated earlier, but also think that getting a successfully mafia lynch day 1 has us in a great position today. If Jailbreaker flips town? Well as he's such an easy target we're not likely to learn too much from who voted, which is my biggest concern. But based on a series of suspicious posts, and no response at all to the cases made against him in conjunction with lurking, he makes by the far the best lynching candidate we have. ##Vote: Jailbreaker | ||
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However, we are ahead of the game with our successful lynch day 1, which makes our day 2 lynch result less critical, but it's still obviously important. marvellosity, if you're not getting a scum read on Jailbreaker or are more suspicious of someone else, who would you want to lynch in his place? You're in an interesting position as you arrived into the game late, and the person you replaced created a lot of suspicion. You've done a good job so far of alleviating that suspicion but we still don't have much to go off. You're obviously concerned with the result of this lynch, so give us something more to work with if you aren't supporting the lynch on Jailbreaker. | ||
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Well, we have some work to do. | ||
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Time to do a complete re-evaluation. | ||
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You're very keen to get scum reads during the night, any particular reason why? | ||
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As an aside, I really don't like the way replacements work as we don't have any voting information for Aces/Marvellosity for day 1 which is the most significant evidence we have to date, and with Aces being so scummy in his play it just adds confusion regardless of what alignment marvellosity is. | ||
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On May 02 2012 23:43 marvellosity wrote: Zen: I'll go back and take a look. Anything further to add or still much the same? Pure: imo voting information is simply a not-that-strong heuristic at this stage. Scummy/townie motivations in posting is in most cases the primary evidence. FYI, I have not read Aces' filter this game. Perhaps I should. The impressions I get from the cases against him (me) from other filters is that he was a weak player and lurky. Of which I am neither. I disagree. If the day 1 vote had lynched a townie, I would agree with this. But the fact is we lynched a mafia. That means that the voting results are more significant, and the fact we have one player who didn't have to show a vote is a hole in that as far as I'm concerned which I find frustrating. Oh well, can't be changed. Why do I think it's more significant? Because it gives you this picture to look at which then allows you to focus your investigations. And when you include the info on who has flipped town since, and factor in your own town reads, then suddenly the focus becomes more more specific. | ||
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On May 03 2012 00:05 marvellosity wrote: Further to the bolded in particular, I am not approaching my scumhunting like this. I was referring to myself there. I've done complete filter reviews and have found so much contradictory posting so far. I.e., someone will have done a few things which independently look suspicious to me, but have also done things that look obviously townie to me. Therefore I'm looking at ways to focus my investigations on who I believe are the most likely scum candidates, and trying to find the pattern that exists somewhere. I would hope we are all doing scumhunting in our own ways so that when we start posting our analysis, we can (hopefully) get independent corroboration of our reads. | ||
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The specific things I've found townie: - Puts me and The_Zen_Man on a never vote list. Now I know I am town, and I have a town read on TZM, and therefore I can't see a mafia stating this. - Stated his strong read that Splinter was town. Again, I can't see a scum motivation for stating this. *unless as mafia he was anticipating the mod kill/town flip and seeking to gain cred that way - but thats just WIFOM. I really struggle with his odd logic, and as such I can't get a solid read. I'd be interested if anyone has any further suspicions against him, TZM made some good points yesterday. The vote flipping seems way more suspicious to me than Golden's vote switch that ended up lynching Veriat. I had a theory earlier that either him or golden was scum, i.e., if one flipped town the other would flip scum, but I'm not so sure on that any more as I can't make a strong case against either. There is a chance (and I've stated this before) that he is playing some deep deception here. I can't confirm it from the information available though so leaving it at that for now. | ||
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Why would scum push the lynch on Veriat when only a single vote either way would let him live for another day? The only player in the Veriat lynch that looks suspicious to me is WhySoMuch based on his behaviour in the lead up to the deadline. If we look at that vote, this is what I see (colouring known town and my town reads for now): Day1: Veriat: (7): yomi, The_Zen_Man, WhySoMuch, Pure-SC2, Splinter[eP], Mordanis, O.Golden_ne The_Zen_Man (1): Veriat Yomi (1): Jailbreaker AcesAnoka (1):Lazermonkey WhySoMuch (1): nreekay324 No Vote: (1):AcesAnoka/Marvellosity Based on the back and forth between them, I don't think both WhySoMuch and Golden can be scum. Golden's filter reads town to me more than WhySoMuch. I believe there is at least one scum between Lazermonkey, nreekay324 and AcesAnoka/Marvellosity. nreekay: - Short filter - Has provided more detailed analysis as game has progressed Lazermonkey: - Short filter - Votes on Aces for lurking, and stays with that vote. No one could convince him anyone was more suspicious than him. - References Nova/The_Zen_Man – when Nova isn’t playing the game? This might be way too circumstantial but could this possibly be a scumslip based on communicating with the admin Nova? I think he was meant to be referencing me here. AcesAnoka/Marvellosity: - I want to believe is town, but doubts linger. WhySoMuch: - Large filter, odd logic - Calls himself out as likely to be killed during the night and proceeds to post his reads. Obvious self town promotion - Things against him being scum: Puts me and The_Zen_Man on a never vote list. Early town read on Splinter, but this isn't conclusive. | ||
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So, following our day 1 lynch, you mmade the following post. On April 29 2012 15:22 Lazermonkey wrote: Wow, such a nice day-1 kill! I wasn't at home last night but I followed the drama from my phone : P - This clearly states that you watched the result. You weren't at home, but kept an eye on the result from your phone. Then during your night post last night, which is essentially an analysis of the day 1 lynch, you state something that I also looked at, is that due to the nature of the Veriat vote just reaching the minimum, one assumption could be that neither of the other 2 scum voted on Veriat. As this included you, you offered the following reasoning as to why you voted Aces and didn't vote Veriat: On May 03 2012 06:34 Lazermonkey wrote: Now as for myself, I was seriously thought that Aces was looking way scummier than Veriat at the point of the lynch. I went to bed at about 22:00 and at that point where I left there were alot of indecisiveness on who to lynch. Thus I wasn't able to change my vote, although I'm not trying to archive town cred as I still think Aces looked more scummy in D1. - This clearly states that you were at home, and went to bed prior to the deadline, and more importantly the reasoning for stating this is to distance yourself from the the obvious conclusion, that mafia wouldn't have voted for Veriat. - You never made a case against Aces, you sponged off Golden and then settled on lurking as a reason. This sounds very different from what you stated here. Your response to WhySoMuch who raised this was: On May 03 2012 15:55 Lazermonkey wrote: Because I'm scum or because I don't remember things. you choose! I have a hard time believing you don't remember the difference between being out and watching the result unfold on your phone, and being at home not watching the drama unfold and going to bed early. Especially considering you are in the middle of stating a case and trying to explain why you did something that essentially looks suspicious. You offer the alternative that you're either scum or don't remember things. Well you kinda just offered no real option there other to see you as scum? This throwaway comment reads to me as someone being caught out on something and throwing out an extreme statement to gloss it over. A few other things that stand out: - One of the few non-confirmed town who didn't vote Veriat. Voted Aces. States he made a case on Aces, but I don't see it, quotes one post of Aces and calls it scummy. - References Nova (the game admin) in a post - seems like an obvious mistake (and I think he meant me). - Pressured Golden after his late vote on Veriat, despite that vote actually leading to a scum lynch. - Late and very safe vote on Jailbreaker - Casting doubt on The_Zen_Man without offering anything other than he didn't push the case on Veriat. Yet his case led me to voting on Veriat. - Stating scum read against WhySoMuch without offering anything and essentially just sponging off what others have already posted. | ||
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Why sign up if you can't commit time to it? I feel like I'm completely wasting my time with this when half the people can't even be bothered to put time into it. | ||
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Only thing I really don't get, why would he switch vote to Veriat? Even if Veriat looked suspicious, if he didn't get voted day 1 he'd still have to be voted for day 2, meaning more mafia in the game for longer. | ||
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- Lazer states 3 separate times a town read on Golden. He does put some pressure on Golden for his late vote on Veriat. - Mentions Lazer only once, early on with 2 others saying they needed to post more. Never responds to Lazers pressure on him related to the vote on Veriat. Nothing else I can really see there. They come across as essentially invisible to each other. | ||
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Initially states he is out (not home) and following on mobile. Then, when making his case on why he was one of the ones who didnt vote Veriat, says he was home, and didnt follow it as he went to bed early. This is a massive difference. | ||
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Then we get this whole charade? WhySoMuch "knows" Sexdoll from some other site, they have this nice little byplay - oh he's actually younguns there lol lol, heyya babe, and of course Sexdoll knows him and he is likely a villager based on his experience with him. Isn't that sweet, the internet suddenly seems like such a small happy place, where two people who played something similar on another site manage to not only end up in the same game on this site, but have all this experience playing together. I think it's one of two things. 1). They are the same person and totally fucking with us. This was my first impression based on Sexdolls posts. 2). They are friends who are communicating out of band and acting like they aren't. I don't like it at all. Marv, I'm going to spend the next bit going over your case on Golden. It read good the first time but there were a few things I wanted to look at closer. Don't you think it's weird that WhySoMuch has dropped his number 1 scum read on Golden? His reason initially was that he didn't think anyone would support it, so now you've made a good case, why the hell isn't he even pushing it? | ||
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I'm conflicted though, as I was the person that led the lynch against Lazermonkey in my first mafia game for similar reasons, i.e., he had made what appeared to be obvious scum tells, and he became the obvious lynch (like Jailbreaker this game) and then he flips town. I think that gives me enough doubt right now, that if I'm convinced in the case against Golden, will be pushing for that lynch. I'll post more once I've done some work and had a chance to go through the case again. | ||
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I really don't feel good about the SexDoll replacement based on what I've read so far, and I've posted what I think about this. So yea. ##Vote: SexDoll Additional concerns, Lazer's made an admitted lie in order to alleviate suspicion to avoid being lynched. On its own this seems really bad to me. The_Zen_Man needs to contribute. Also, someone out there knows some concrete evidence. I'm in two minds about this, because I think the info can be used now. If it's not going to be, then it has to be used at the end of the night. That's my opinion anyway. | ||
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On May 03 2012 21:30 marvellosity wrote: At this stage golden is my main scum-read. You may understand why this is extremely time-consuming to put together 40 minutes later, Golden posts that he's pulling out of the game. That's one way to avoid the pressure on you and meaning you don't have to answer a case I suppose. | ||
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nreekay seems to be on board, so lets hear from The_Zen_Man, Lazermonkey and Mordanis And we know WhySoMuch will be on board because of: + Show Spoiler + On April 29 2012 05:19 WhySoMuch wrote: This post is hella sketch. Your happy to see him lynched but you won't vote him? As far as I know only 1 person is voting him becuase of his lack of activity. I am not. When he has been in the thread, his posts have been extremely wolfy as I and others have pointed out. + Show Spoiler + On April 29 2012 06:15 WhySoMuch wrote: I explained in my post why it was sketch. You saying you won't change your vote to Variat even though you are happy to see him lynched. There are no detrimental posts, idk what you mean by that. Are Veriats posts more scummy than Aces? Yes, a lot more. The bolded: Why are you so against voting him, like it's going to pain you to vote him, but if it's absolutely necessary you will when you said you would be happy to see him lynched. It doesn't make sense. If Veriat flips mafia, I am coming after you for being his partner. And to answer your bolded question: My read on you is that you are a mafia if Veriat flips mafia. Yes your steadfast view on Aces is more sketch than me flip flopping, what is so bad about flip-flopping? I'm showing I'm analysing posts in real time and drawing conclusions, then going back rereading and switching my stance. You are hesistant to vote someone you are "happy to lynch" and that's what makes your steadfast stance scummy. + Show Spoiler + On April 30 2012 07:06 WhySoMuch wrote: ##Vote: Golden + Show Spoiler + On May 03 2012 14:04 WhySoMuch wrote: Can I lock in my mafia team as LazerMonkey/Golden right now? cause I kinda wanna do that. ##vote: LazerMonkey ...And many other references to his belief that Golden is scum. | ||
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Overall his play has been much better this game, but then he goes and lies in such a way that is impossible to deny, and then admits it (which he had no choice). He has a reason for doing it (which it's good he's posted) and I can believe him. I'm not sure if I do though, so he needs to get very involved in what's going on now - I don't think we can accept any lurking at all from him. | ||
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@Sexdoll - what do you find suspicious about me? | ||
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That's sad. I'm kinda confused. | ||
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Veriat: (7): yomi, The_Zen_Man, WhySoMuch, Pure-SC2, Splinter[eP], Mordanis, O.Golden_ne The_Zen_Man (1): Veriat Yomi (1): Jailbreaker AcesAnoka/Marvellosity (1):Lazermonkey WhySoMuch (1): nreekay324 No Vote: (1):AcesAnoka/Marvellosity Night 1: yomi was killed Day2 - Jailbreaker lynched, Splinter[eP] modkilled: Pure-SC2 (1) - Jailbreaker Jailbreaker (8) - WhySoMuch, Mordanis, nreekay324, O.Golden_ne, Pure-SC2, Marvellosity, The_Zen_Man, Lazermonkey Not voted - (1) Splinter[eP] Night 2: No one was killed Day3 - O.Golden_ne was lynched: Lazermonkey (1): O.Golden_ne/SexDoll O.Golden_ne/SexDoll (7): Marvellosity, Pure-SC2, The_Zen_Man, WhySoMuch, Lazermonkey, nreekay324, Mordanis | ||
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Thanks very much to the hosts, I really loved the theme - it added a lot to the game My death video made me laugh Lazer - I thought you played a lot better as "town" this game right up until the lie. I'm annoyed at myself because I knew it was really sus, and especially with you not voting Veriat day 1. I was certain that the other 2 scum were in you 3 who didn't vote Veriat, but both you and nreekay did quite a good job like I said up until that lie. During the night (before I died) I had gone through the filters and saw the way nreekay was just easy bandwagoning on to the other votes and figured he was scum, then it was down to you and marv. Marv did a great job coming in like he did, I found it really hard to trust him at first but definitely had a town read on him, and I almost think that The_Zen_Man coulda claimed the save that day, but its still likely golden/sexdoll woulda got lynched. I'm a bit annoyed I went with the Golden over Lazer lynch, because I really didn't see it in marvs case against Golden, I had him, TZM and mord as my town reads from early on, but I liked marv and his style and let that rule me a bit, and then with the replacement thing I really didn't feel like I could trust anything sexdoll said so kinda just went with that. In hindsight, we had Lazer dead to rights after that blatant lie and he shoulda been voted in place of Golden/Sexdoll. Mord, I think you played really well and pulled out that vigi shot at the perfect time. I know there is a risk that you coulda been taken out without shooting, but I'd rather that over killing off a townie (e.g. golden) and helping the mafia. I also had a good town read on you from early. The_Zen_Man - you were my main town read after the case against Veriat and the save you pulled on Marv was great. I'm kinda in two minds as I think there coulda been some benefit of claiming that night, but also maybe not, and since it turned out right, it was a good thing to do. Shoulda saved me the next night  WhySoMuch - sorry I was a bit hard on you. I was getting a really mixed read on you and with your last minute sign-up, was pretty convinced you were a smurf account or something, playing this elaborate deception, and I really couldn't shake that perception, especially after Sexdoll joining and your interaction with him. My biggest gripe was that you have this strongly ingrained sense of you know exactly what is what, and felt that you actually caused more confusion than was good for town, so I'd say if you want to help town more, be a bit more circumspect in how you post and the reasons you go after people (e.g. against TZM and Golden this game specifically). Going to read through the obs+scum qt threads now gg everyone I think I might call it quits with mafia now, as it's so time consuming and ultimately frustrating when other people don't put the time in and/or just pull out early. | ||
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