|
ya look how little content we've generated so far. I flamed people for spamming last game because the activity level made me very nervous as mafia. I knew I would have to post a lot. You guys are letting them fit in with the other lurkers easy mode.
As far as not lyching, obviously if we do lynch it's going to be me so that's bad. But in general I'm not sure how certain you have to be for a profitable lynch. The baseline is 3/12 = .25. If we lynch when we are 50% sure:
day 1 you lose town
night 1 lose town
day 2 kill mafia
night 2 lose town
day 3 lose town
night 3 lose town
day 4 kill mafia
night 4 lose town
and now we have 1 mafia vs 3 town players. So you don't have to be THAT sure to lynch. And this is with losing the first 50/50 and no town power role block/heal/vigi etc.
|
well that's 6 on me so I'm just about dead. ill post something later but this is a pretty pitiful town, I would bet a lot on mafia right now
|
I voted for the biggest lurker and made a (small) case against him
/shrug dont know what else to do
|
daniel obv also suspicious with the lurk + bandwagon
|
first thing I realized I attributed a quote to AF that was actually from nreekay.
on zealos:
This is one of the most Scummy first day's I've seen in my 3 games so far.
This I thought was really weird because I, myself, am having a very hard time picking out scum. As I said before, it is just so easy for them to fit in with the lurkers and bandwagoners. I don't know what he thinks is so scummy about the posting, I don't think anyone has posted anything super suspicious.
Then he makes this attack on yomi that makes very little sense to me + Show Spoiler +Yomi seems suspicious to me. He says he isn't sure about lynching someone then votes when no one else has. That makes it more likely someone will be lynched. Also, he gave no reasons as to why I should be lynched. This makes me think he's a mafia who just wants to get some townie lynched.
the case against me is pretty stupid because mafia don't play the way I'm playing. BUT this is probably the best statement of it. Notice the lack of the later hyperbole where I am actually correctly quoted "he says he ISN'T SURE" about lynching someone. later attacks all misquote (actually everyone refuses to use real quotes this game derp) me saying I explicitly opposed a lynch. Also I like how it actually connects the dots to a motivation "he's a mafia who wants to get a townie lynched". Others basically don't like me and my aggressive play and equate that with "suspicion" but here it makes some sense. but mafia don't go about getting people lynched this way.
He claims at the end of the post
however, I only said Maju's argument was flawed, no the conclusion.
But he hasn't really explained why it's flawed.
And he says I'm his #2 yet says the case against me is flawed.
@zealos
So if the argument is flawed, what is the correct argument for lynching me?
I think this may be a mafia trying to set themselves up for a 1-2. He knows the lynch on me is pretty much going through no matter what and he wants to be on the good side of it. He wants to make it yomi vs maju. So then when I flip green he can get town to go onto maju, a weak player he knows won't be able to defend himself. This is how I played the last game. I meekly opposed the first lynch to gain town cred just so I could then push through my first day choice.
If he actually defended me that's one thing. The people that have really defended me are pretty much town. No mafia would defend what seems like a sure-lynch. But this way he gets to jump on the obvious next target a bit early without impeding the lynch on me.
Also the introduction is too apologetic. This is typical of TLers to be way overly polite but only mafia really apologize and suck up to town. He's from the UK where people are generally a little more blunt.
while I was writing this daniel quit. I think town are way more likely to quit than mafia.
People voting for me does not equal mafia.
People defending me equals town.
UNLESS they are trying to build town cred by "calling" the lynch correctly, and are targetting on to the next most likely to be lynched players. oneplus is definitely not doing this.
draco is in a lot of ways by making the same play as zealos. he's getting ready to quote himself when I flip town and say see, I told you so, now look at my case against maju in the context of maju vs yomi. but maju vs yomi has never really been a big thing like draco and zealos want to make it out to be. we flamed each other with one liners in the first few pages and it flickered out and is no big deal now.
he wants to quote this tomorrow:
Thirdly when yomi votes for him, he immediately counter-accuses yomi, with this: "Yomi seems suspicious to me. He says he isn't sure about lynching someone then votes when no one else has. That makes it more likely someone will be lynched. Also, he gave no reasons as to why I should be lynched. This makes me think he's a mafia who just wants to get some townie lynched."
I see a problem with this on multiple levels. First off, he offers consensus as the most important thing, but doesn't register that yomi is willing to bow down for this very consensus if it is as such. He asks for reasonable things from yomi - things he himself does not offer in return,
nreeke also defended me somewhat but I'm not so sure about him and am getting really tired I've been writing this post forever
mutant is a fucking nutjob. watch this guy. I think he's the xatalos of last game, just a super eager emotionally invested towny but read the guy's filter. really intense. very very interested in my lynch. how can a town be so unequivocal right now? I'll excuse it in AF b/c he played the last game w/ me and I am playing this one very similarly and he has a little grudge against me I guess from last game.
the game is a lot harder as town I'll tell you that. but look at who defended me and why. mostly these people are going to be your townies, as the level 1 thinking is that a mafia would want to push through a lynch on a towny asap (mutant). But we can give them credit for being a little more clever than that. Watch for people who are trying to set up for a play off of me flipping town. Remember all the mafia in the game right now know that I am about to flip green and want to position themselves to come out strong tomorrow and build a case around my having flipped green. They pretty much "won" today whenever I got to like 3 or 4 votes it was clear I was going down. Then they would have started to create false dichotomies around me vs x player to build off of tomorrow. I'm heading to the library now, I'm sure I'll look at the thread again but this is prob my last big post.
good luck guys.
you are being way way way way too passive right now. post. a lot more. don't let anyone lurk. make them just post whatever's on their mind. this is SUPER stressful for mafia. mafia have to re-read their posts 10 times before posting and are super super careful about everything. making them have to give an opinion on everything is awful for a mafia. so punish (really punish, not just threaten) the lurkers hard and anyone that won't come out with near-constant lists of their reads on everyone and why. mafia hate hate hate that environment. on the other hand don't let it get super cluttered. just make everyone come out with frequent clear posts. last game you guys really almost had us on day 2. it was super scary how the posting was going. very organized, very clear, very concise. I just managed to discredit xatalos to win it but otherwise you guys had us made, many of the lists had 3 or 4 players picked of which 2 were mafia.
firm, aggressive, but reasoned and frequent posting is mafia's enemy.
|
well I was coming off of maju but I just read his post now. I understand you don't like my play but what about it is mafia? A mafia would try to get a townie lynched by coming out like a manic and accusing someone? this is not the play of a mafia I assure you. you will see that later tonight when I flip and then you will realize that mafia like to:
1) lurk
2) defend themselves
3) bandwagon
they DO NOT:
1) stick their neck out
2) play risky
3) create original cases unless there is a dire need for it (see last game me vs xatalos).
maju is really new and is prob just a noob but still you gotta watch him. draco made a pretty great post against the guy
|
also if they do create a case they won't stick to it really hard like a townie will because they are afraid of making enemies. mafia like to make friends. townies, especially vanilla townies, play fearlessly. they don't really care too much about being lynched, especially early on.
|
so it's
oneplus = town for defending me when a mafia never would
zealos mafia for setting up for tomorrow to hit maju
draco may be trying to do the same thing, I tried to look at the exact sequence of events but im getting tired now. his defense of me was pretty genuine
and mutant suspicious because he is a manic and tunneling really hard and shutting down discussion of anything but me. but I don't think mafia play quite this aggro.
af is prob town, but I dunno I think he is a pretty good player who could hide it really well and try to play this town leader mafia style. that's really risky though I don't think beginners do that.
|
I think that kills me right? 7 total
you are the only other active player lol so it's up to you to no-lynch. no other target is possible obv. this thread is too passive to do any last minute shenanigans like we did last game. maybe that will be a good thing in the future who knows.
not much I can say to convince you, you were the player I thought would FOR SURE vote me if I played this way but I thought I could prob survive it and come out with a lot of good info based on how people reacted to a real "event" instead of how day 1 is, normally where people talk about talking about things. my plan was:
get people to post if they had played a game before or not. I am genuinely too lazy to search everyone and see what games they played, I'm not even sure how to do this. filter by subforum I guess?
If they HAD played a game and also were suspicious of me, that would put them on my suspicious list because an experienced player would know that mafia don't play how I'm playing now. Except for me last game. But last game I was always thinking "what would I do if I was town". And I thought hey, if I'm town, I come out here swinging and get in a fight and see what happens. That will get something real going.
Then do what I was just doing in my last post, see who miraculously "knew" I was going to flip town. The way I, in a panic last game, made some vague allusion to not lynching willz on day 1 because I thought it would build town cred.
So that was my amazing plan and I still think it will work as you guys will now be able to read back and see how it all played out. who defended, lurked, and bandwagoned.
|
maybe you can see the turnaround AF when I back off maju? It's not 40 hours of me acting crazy. It's like 24 at most, and I never really go at maju. Read it in that context you will see it is a trap for mafia.
|
gg lol  
|
LOL btw great post midnight
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
