EPTI'm a cop you idiot mafia - Page 4
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Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Lets assume our cop claims right off the bat, one of two things will happen. Mafia will either counter-claim, or will leave it be. N0 Cop Claim + Counter Claim: both survive the night, we have to lynch one of them on Day 1. Cop is unkillable because that would leave us a free mafia. Medic is free to protect anyone, giving him a 1 in 4 chance of protection instead of a 1 in 6. N0 Cop Claim + No Counter Claim: Medic is forced to protect Cop. Cop has a 1 in 6 chance of finding scum. Assuming he does not find scum, we have 2 confirmed town, 2 scum, 1 doc and 1 townie. 50-50. If we have the Doctor claim, mafia is forced to cc or give us 2/3 chance of hitting scum. A doctor counter claim gives us a 50-50 again. No chance of a medic save in this scenario though. Assuming no claim, that leaves doc free to protect whomever they want. Cop has a chance of getting shot. Day 1 cop claims his results, and we have the whole scenario over again, either counter claim or no counter claim. I think cop claiming right now is superior in every way. Thoughts? Agree or Disagree? | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 14 2012 09:29 Radfield wrote: N0 Cop Claim + Counter Claim: both survive the night, we have to lynch one of them on Day 1. Cop is unkillable because that would leave us a free mafia. Medic is free to protect anyone, giving him a 1 in 4 chance of protection instead of a 1 in 6. Actually, Mafia might shoot the cop in this scenario, as it's a guaranteed kill. It exposes the counter claiming mafia, but that is not terrible I suppose as it's still lylo the following day. At any rate the Doctor would get another shot at a save N1, only with increased odds. So I suppose the Cop is safe. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25560 Posts
I am the cop. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25560 Posts
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Tunkeg
Norway1235 Posts
On April 14 2012 09:31 Blazinghand wrote: I agree strongly. In this setup the cop will basically HAVE to claim D1 since we'll be at lylo, and claiming N0 is superior to claiming D1. Guaranteeing the cop surviving the night is worth it. I am the cop. Lie, I didnt go to bed, I am the real cop! There you have it! | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 14 2012 09:36 Tunkeg wrote: Lie, I didnt go to bed, I am the real cop! There you have it! Is that a counter claim for real? Tunkeg vs Blazinghand? | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21171 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25560 Posts
On April 14 2012 09:36 Tunkeg wrote: Lie, I didnt go to bed, I am the real cop! There you have it! Well, that was quick. So you went to bed, but you were actually here watching the thread so you could counter claim the cop, huh. I know you're scum. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25560 Posts
On April 14 2012 09:37 Radfield wrote: If so it means the medic is free to pick from the remaining players as both Tunkeg and Blazinghand will surely survive the night. This is true. Scum won't shoot a claimed cop since their counterclaiming scum will get lynched the next day. | ||
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Tunkeg
Norway1235 Posts
On April 14 2012 09:38 Blazinghand wrote: Well, that was quick. So you went to bed, but you were actually here watching the thread so you could counter claim the cop, huh. I know you're scum. I don't care what you think  We get the one for one trade on you and me, so no problem. I allready sent my night check in on you though BH, so it was a good move to claim cop, cause I would have figured you out by tomorrow. Now I change my check | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 14 2012 09:39 Tunkeg wrote: I don't care what you think We get the one for one trade on you and me, so no problem. I allready sent my night check in on you though BH, so it was a good move to claim cop, cause I would have figured you out by tomorrow. Now I change my check There is no one for one trade. There is either a successful lynch and we keep player, or a mislynch and we lose. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
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Tunkeg
Norway1235 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25560 Posts
On April 14 2012 09:39 Tunkeg wrote: I don't care what you think We get the one for one trade on you and me, so no problem. I allready sent my night check in on you though BH, so it was a good move to claim cop, cause I would have figured you out by tomorrow. Now I change my check All I need to do is find your scumbuddy and town wins this ez. I think I know what's going to happen here though: You're gonna claim you checked the guy who you're shooting N0. He'll wind up dead and you won't "give" any info to town, and if the medic saves him, you're just corroborating an already-confirmed town info. | ||
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Tunkeg
Norway1235 Posts
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Tunkeg
Norway1235 Posts
On April 14 2012 09:43 Blazinghand wrote: All I need to do is find your scumbuddy and town wins this ez. I think I know what's going to happen here though: You're gonna claim you checked the guy who you're shooting N0. He'll wind up dead and you won't "give" any info to town, and if the medic saves him, you're just corroborating an already-confirmed town info. Hehe, you so funny | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Right now after an extremely cursory glance I have deduced that Blazinghand is probably the scum. I'd say at least a 56% chance. | ||
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