EPTWhere is everyone else? Why has no-one else spoken up about the events of the night?
Newbie Mini Mafia IX - Page 2
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Pure-SC2
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Where is everyone else? Why has no-one else spoken up about the events of the night? | ||
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The key lurkers right now based on my filter review: Therapist Macheji Lazermonkey (since his vote on oneplus) Crossfire (since the night post) Also TheRavensName, Lorant and BlueyD. You really need to contribute more, including some of your own analysis and scum reads. Spend the time to read peoples filters and make your own opinions. | ||
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My case against Nova: I still believe in it, but he has done a good job defending himself once he changed his approach, and has enough support that he's not likely to get lynched at this point. I will be highlighting any further suspicious behaviour from Nova as I see it. Qudos to Nova for adjusting his approach. Putting my case against Nova aside for now.... The case against Lazermonkey I won't be as detailed with this as I was in my case against Nova. However I will state the main reasons why I find him suspicious. Soft support of Nova with no stated reasoning - Agrees with Nova's stance on Solohan without stating any reasoning. This in itself isn't condemning, but was what initially had me noting him as suspicious. Lazermonkey's vote flip following my case against Nova (which included a link to him): - This ia stereotypical scum behaviour. Once a link to Nova was raised (regardless of whether Nova is scum or town), Lazer flipped on him very quickly, going from supporting him, to voting for him to be lynched. - During the post he made where he switched vote to Nova, he stated he thought Nova's early game was good - then why is he voting for him? - He made sure to state the possibility that I might be scum, even though he liked my case against Nova. He is positioning himself to be able to play this out either way, which I find suspicious. - What is his motivation for this statement? Atm I think the most interesting lynch would in fact be Nova. Not because he is confirmed scum in any way, but because of the possible information we could be given. If he flips town, we really need to think about Pure intention with his post. - If you are looking for scum like behaviour, this is it. It's not some random read based on gut feel, this is based on how he reacted when the pressure of being linked to someone who had a case made against them. Leads a lynch vote against oneplus, even after stating he thinks he is a townie - Some quotes from Lazer about oneplus: I'm convinced that oneplus is a townie atm. His posts are far too stupid in order to be a scum. I wasn't even pushing the lynch against him. I even said that I only thought he was a bad townie - He then leads the vote against oneplus anyway. - Also makes a connection between oneplus and Lorant as "imo both him and durant is acting really strange" (Durant actually meaning Lorant). This was because Lorant offered to help with oneplus's english, which actually seemed townie to me. Other than a comment to the admins, his filter has remained completely silent since voting for oneplus. Lazermonkey has moved to number 1 on my scumlist. Nova is still leaning strong scum for me, and would be my second choice to lynch. | ||
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Crossfire is 3rd on my scum read at this time, and of the three is my least strongest read. However there are a few things that stand out, so I'm putting them out there. Switched vote to oneplus to "save" Nova - This essentially relates to Nova, but I found Crossfire's choice of words suspicious when he flipped his vote to oneplus. Ugh...this really sucks. I don't think oneplus is scum, but I also don't think nova is scum. Since you have been actively contributing Nova, I am going to vote for oneplus to save you. Sorry, oneplus. Crossfire's phantom vote at the "original" deadline for day 1 - I found this extremely odd. Right at the original deadline (before the admin realised the mistake and added 2 hours), Crossfire made a post Unvoting and Voting oneplus. (please review this yourself) - This is after he already has a perfectly formatted, bold post voting for oneplus (made at 5:47 - i.e., 13 minutes earlier) - Why is this post made? Is it a mistake? Was he meant to unvote oneplus and move it to someone else but messed it up? While I can't make a solid read here it does ring suspicious to me. What do you think? His filter has been silent since the end of day 1. | ||
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On April 17 2012 14:21 Nova_Terra wrote: Apologies for clutter but i need a third post before school. At this point i would urge a medic or jailkeeper to think about protecting Pure. As it stands, there are high chances of his death that stem from him making cases, and him tunneling me. This post is scummy, all it does is add confusion while trying to make it look like you actually care about my fate (regardless of what alignment you are or what you actually think). If town has a medic or jailkeeper, they will base their decisions on their own reads as they should. No one should be trying to direct them and doing so is a scum tell. This is scummy and adds confusion because: - If the medic/jailkeeper read you as scummy (and let's say you are town), that means they would not follow your advice and look to protect someone else so it's achieved nothing other than adding a whole bunch of confusion. - If the medic/jailkeeper read you as scummy (and you are scummy), that means they would not follow your advice and look to protect someone else so it's achieved nothing other than adding a whole bunch of confusion. - If the medic/jailkeeper read you as town (and you're actually scum), they will follow your advice while you/mafia take down someone else. - If the medic/jailkeeper read you as town (and you are town), they will follow your advice while the mafia know you aren't mafia and hit someone else So what is your motivation for this post? | ||
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My scum reads: Lazermonkey Nova_Terra (Needs to post more) Crossfire (Needs to post more) My null reads: Therapist (needs to post more) Macheji (needs to post more) Solohan50 (needs to post more) TheRavensName (needs to post more) My town reads: Daymor BlueyD (needs to post more) Other notes: I had Lorant leaning town but I'm just not sure about his latest posts. Needs analyisis and we need more people posting. There is so much lurky behaviour right now. It's a real shame. | ||
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My scum reads: Lazermonkey (Needs to post more) Nova_Terra Crossfire (Needs to post more) | ||
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I agree with you on the lurker problem we have, though it's good to see Solohan's input today and think he had some good analysis there. Of the three other lurkers (Macheji, Therapist, TheRavensName), the only one I have a slight read on is TheRavensName. I haven't looked at this closely, but am aware he switched votes out late when it didn't make a difference, and voted Nova while not being sure of me - which seems like a strange thing to do. I'm really not sure about a lurker vote right now, as we have several other actual leads to go on. We are into day2, we've lost 2 town and I'm not sure we are in a position to lynch someone we don't have a read on. I've not included Lazer there, but he hasn't posted since his oneplus vote, and is lurking hard right now. It makes me think someone has told him to stop posting in order to get out of the spotlight which further adds to my suspicion. Nova stated he thought that this made him seem more town. @Nova, why is this? | ||
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One thing we know, he is not a newbie and is playing under a smurf account (as he was previously FourFace). The FourFace post looks accidental, but I think we have to keep in mind that he might have had some reason for intentionally posting from that account and outing his "smurf". Either way, he is not a newbie. I don't know anything about his history as "FourFace", but Nova seemed to know the name and have some association with it. Is this relevant? No idea. @Nova, maybe you could tell us what your feel is towards FourFace? Lorants initial posts: - Nothing much going on here, favours a lurker lynch, recommends keeping a journal, kinda fluffy really. Makes a good point on Nova's stance on Solohan which I didn't register prior to this review Contributes to day 1 vote: - First post of real substance is a vote for Crossfire. Mainly based on gut feel, and due to Crossfires number of posts on the no-lynch policy and sheeping Nova on Solohan. Says he will remove his vote if Crossfire adds a single valid argument about Solo being scummy. He then makes his FourFace post (which he doesn't realise until Nova points it out) - This post raises the left field suggestion of the council, and he drops the names of who he sees in this council and again he's essentially attempting to lead this here as he states "Our" first order if business shall be to review his suspicions of Crossfire. - I've gotta admit, I didn't take this post seriously as I thought it was just a ridiculous throw away post to provoke some reaction and only revisited it once I realised he was actually serious. I really don't know how to read it. - His explanation for smurfing is that he wanted to move away from his FourFace meta (doing crazy stuff to make people believe he's town). He then contributes some analysis and response to my case on Nova, and fingers Lazer early on - This is after Daymar and I had posted suspicions on Lazer - Advises all players to not follow someone who posts a lot as a leader - Condemns Lazer for calling Solohan scummy without having gathered enough evidence to help town make an opinion on him. Recommends everyone to prepare a statement and post it 2-3 minutes before daybreak - Good advice I think, but this is quite an interesting post to note based on what occurs later Personally states me as Scummy, doesn't elaborate and states it could be just a gut feeling. - Implies that while he finds me scummy, he thinks the way I post should be encouraged so he is willing to compromise his personal option of me for the sake of empowering discussion. No further details provided on why he finds me scummy. @Lorant, what do you find me scummy? Lorant gets into a back and forth with Nova - and this back and forth needs further analysis I think. - Some interesting points here, but he comes across quite melodramatic and is set on his council idea, and arbitrarily adjusts who is/isn't in it. - Seems to be trying to lead people into the council idea (while stating he doesn't want Nova to be considered a leader anymore). Interesting to remember here that he advised everyone earlier to not follow someone who posts a lot as a leader. - Blames Nova/Lazer for the lynch on oneplus. This is reasonable to me based on what happened. Lorant provides his night statement - This is a joke and a poor joke at that. I'm really not sure how to take this, and even more so I'm not sure how he intended it to be taken, - After requesting everyone to prepare a statement, and stating himself he is preparing his own statement, this is an insult to the town I feel. Lorant provides some analysis - I found this interesting, as he had some different angles for looking at things. - His points on why Crossfire was taken out were good, specifically the bluesniping section. - Adds more confusion though with his comments about how he made a case against Crossfire and how that looks bad for him, then goes on to say how because he's pointing this out that he could have masterminded it all to trick us. - Fingers Solohan Finally - a strange post about the council - Again trying to lead into the council (he's set on this idea), offering a be in or be out stance. Overall, I find there is way too much smoke and mirrors around Lorant right now and it makes me feel suspicious towards him. I definitely had an early town reading against him but I don't any more. His council idea actually has some merit for me, and can see why doing something like this may provide a clearer way to lead voting, but its based on the assumption that even if a scum member is in there, there will be more town members making the scum element less influential. But what if it includes 2 scum? or 3? It sets up a chance for them to lead the voting under the guise of the council and as such I don't think it's the right approach. Lorant, for me, you need to cut the smoke and mirrors, stop messing us around and play straight. I'll be keeping a closer eye on your filter.smurf | ||
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On April 18 2012 20:59 Macheji wrote: Oh man, 9 pages in and i have a full paper of notes. Most of them on Nova_Terra and Lazermonkey. I saw an obvious connection between the two of them. Share briefly with Pure-Sc2 , but tbh i find Pure-SC2 very ''town'' atm , not sure what that was about ( ganging on solohan w/o any evidence ) . I have to decide if i should make a list with everybody or just post my scum conclusion and post a case vs 1,2 people. What do you guys prefer ? Go through it all and make your own decision. That should be based on what you think would be most beneficial to town. | ||
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Solohan, what do you have to say towards the suspicions against you? | ||
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I never accused Solohan of being scum, I asked him what he thought of Nova saying his first post sounded scummy. Also, I voted for oneplus as a pressure vote (as he was lurking at the time), which I removed when I made my case against Nova. You'll need to get going on your reading, as things have moved on a long way from where you're up to. | ||
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Of the 6 people that voted for him: - Four stated no scum related reason for voting oneplus (Daymor, Crossfire, Nova, Therapist) - One is not sure whether he is scum or bad town (Lazermonkey) - One is more suspicious of him than of Nova (BlueyD) Of these 6, one was confirmed town (Crossfire), and two I have leaning town (Daymor and BlueyD). Including TheRavensName (who vote switched off Oneplus 13 minutes before the deadline), that leaves 4 others who voted for him leading to his lynch, and I believe likely includes at least 2 mafia. These 4 are: Lazer, Nova, Therapist and TheRavensName. I note that Solohan (who is generating heat at the moment for his mostly lurkerish behaviour) was never part of the vote on Oneplus - he voted for Nova and kept it on him. | ||
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The voting rules on the front page are very clear to me. 4. You may not vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game. 5. This game uses Plurality Lynch. Whomever has the most votes at the end of the day is lynched. In the event of a tie, the player who received the most votes first will be lynched. 6. Voting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain. There is no mention of an option to vote no lynch, so there is not much more to say here. I stated what I believed to be true and I stand by it. Regarding the night post, I wanted to get my analysis of oneplus's lynching across so that town had as much information to work with as possible. I figured I was a good target for a mafia kill so it made sense to me. And yes, I wanted people posting. I wanted to get as much info out there as possible for the towns benefit, not to purposefully put everyone in danger like you assumed in your post. | ||
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My comments on your case against Macheji: - I think if we take him at his word regarding his laptop issues (which true to his word he's posting more now), then it looks pretty similar to his Bastard mafia filter. - Your second point focuses on his contribution in this game so far, and I don't get much from your analysis here. He has a scum read on Nova and sticks with it, and asks a question about what he should post. I agree with you that he shouldn't be asking what to contribute, and I stated that to him pretty soon after he posted, which he subsequently followed so no issue for me there. - His analysis post about his reads was a bit frustrating for me, because it was only based on the first 10 pages and the thread had moved on a lot from that point. The biggest notes I had from this is that he made some factual errors in his review, but felt to me like it came from rushing things and not looking into things properly, rather than scummy. - It looks like you misread the quotes under your Alarm Bells section - do you see that? @Macheji - My comments to you would be to take a bit more time over your posts, and only state something that you know is true (and can back it up with quotes). There are a few things you've stated so far that are flat out wrong and it really affects your credibility. I think you've raised some good points regarding Nova, specifically about the agreeable nature of his posts, something Nova himself considered scummy in Solohan's first post. Also, your mention of him taking credit for "saving" me was interesting to point out. His whole attitude about directing blues and his response to my reading of it didn't satisfy me, and you rightly highlighted his smug response once it was revealed Crossfire was killed. @Nova - You keep making these veiled threats about how defending yourself is preventing yourself from making longer analysis posts. Well, you keep doing things that raise peoples suspicions of you, so it's your own fault really. And if you genuinely are town, you should be focused on scumhunting anyway and posting your own analysis of your scum reads as a matter of priority! The fact that you are so focused on your own defence (while holding back on your own analysis) is suspicious in itself. I've got a lot more to say, but am going to take some time to process a few of the other posts. A quick note on the Therapist: His only real statements this game was to vote for Oneplus, to say he thinks Nova is bringing out a lot of information, and that he doesn't like the council idea. He hasn't posted a single read on anyone else, nor any analysis. | ||
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There is so much confusion, trolling and general chaos in Lorants posts. I had a town leaning read on him prior to the FourFace disclosure, and from there it's just gone weird. What is the motivation behind his posts? I think he gets his enjoyment from throwing our curve balls and confusion. At the moment I feel we are all some mild amusement for Lorant and he doesn't seem to really care either way. Could be town, could be scum. I don't know. Definitely a person of suspicion for me, purely due to the chaos. Did anyone actually check out the play list he linked which meant "I didn't really have anything to post at that time as I was busy with my audio mixing and other stuff that seemed more interesting at that time." ? I did. It included 5 songs, the original diablo town theme song overlayed with another song (which together sounded terrible by the way), and then 4 other songs, one I recognised from my commodore 64 days. I feel like this is one big troll. | ||
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Lazermonkey remains my most suspicious read, and as such I will add to my original case on Lazermonkey, the details of which can be found here: + Show Spoiler + On April 18 2012 07:59 Pure-SC2 wrote: I'm not sure what is going to happen as we flip into the next day, so I'm going get my reads out there so everyone is clear on my stance and they can do what they want with it. My case against Nova: I still believe in it, but he has done a good job defending himself once he changed his approach, and has enough support that he's not likely to get lynched at this point. I will be highlighting any further suspicious behaviour from Nova as I see it. Qudos to Nova for adjusting his approach. Putting my case against Nova aside for now.... The case against Lazermonkey I won't be as detailed with this as I was in my case against Nova. However I will state the main reasons why I find him suspicious. Soft support of Nova with no stated reasoning - Agrees with Nova's stance on Solohan without stating any reasoning. This in itself isn't condemning, but was what initially had me noting him as suspicious. Lazermonkey's vote flip following my case against Nova (which included a link to him): - This ia stereotypical scum behaviour. Once a link to Nova was raised (regardless of whether Nova is scum or town), Lazer flipped on him very quickly, going from supporting him, to voting for him to be lynched. - During the post he made where he switched vote to Nova, he stated he thought Nova's early game was good - then why is he voting for him? - He made sure to state the possibility that I might be scum, even though he liked my case against Nova. He is positioning himself to be able to play this out either way, which I find suspicious. - What is his motivation for this statement? - If you are looking for scum like behaviour, this is it. It's not some random read based on gut feel, this is based on how he reacted when the pressure of being linked to someone who had a case made against them. Leads a lynch vote against oneplus, even after stating he thinks he is a townie - Some quotes from Lazer about oneplus: - He then leads the vote against oneplus anyway. - Also makes a connection between oneplus and Lorant as "imo both him and durant is acting really strange" (Durant actually meaning Lorant). This was because Lorant offered to help with oneplus's english, which actually seemed townie to me. Other than a comment to the admins, his filter has remained completely silent since voting for oneplus. Lazermonkey has moved to number 1 on my scumlist. Nova is still leaning strong scum for me, and would be my second choice to lynch. BlueyD added the following additional analysis on Lazermonkey: + Show Spoiler + Pure’s case on Lazer is very good in my opinion. Just want to add something on the whole Nova-Lazer connection: - Nova is the first of the Nova-Lazer pair to agree to lurker lynch - Nova is the first to call Solo scummy - Nova has his vote on macheji when Lazer puts his on the same player - Nova asks Solohan to find his own suspicious behavior, Lazer says Solo should respond - When oneplus calls them out, Lazer is the one who first turns on the other. These aren’t really buddies. This is Lazer trying to ride on Nova’s wave, and he gets off the wave right as Nova gets suspicious in some people’s eyes. This is not something we can really hold against Nova in my opinion. This is certainly something that makes Lazer suspicious. Lazermonkey has made one posting contribution since leading the lynch vote on Oneplus, I've included this here: + Show Spoiler + On April 19 2012 04:59 Lazermonkey wrote: Sorry for inactive for some time now. First of, I realise that my play have been quite suspicious up untill this point. I don't really know how to response to this tho. Some of you may not like that I blame my inexperience, but it does play a factor in here. This is in fact my first game ever of forum mafia. As for my voteswitch on oneplus, after Pure's post about Nova I was overwhelmed. I thought there was a very big chance of Nova being scum at that point. But I really liked his defense and he had been contributing as oposed to oneplus. At the same time oneplus never failed to amaze me with loads of scummy posts. I still wasn't quite sure whether he was a bad town or actually scum and at that point where I voteswitched, I was basically fliping a coin in order in order to decide which one I would go for. I also didn't like the way everyone seemed to bandwagon Nova so easy, althought admittedly I was one of thoose who voted for in the beginning. Now as for my own scumreads, here we go: Macheji - started the game out as a lurker, has a couple of posts which doesn't contribute at all(which doesn't tell to much because it was just a few hours into the game). Then he doesn't say anything for a long time. Obviously this was due to his computer, as a don't really think you would lurk so hardcore that you are basically minutes from being replaced. He then puts his vote on Nova, which doesn't have an impact at all as it made the vote go from 6-3 to 6-4. His resoning behind this vote was that he didn't like the way Nova pressured with his votes in the early game, found in this post:+ Show Spoiler + On April 17 2012 09:46 Macheji wrote: Fine, i'll post my reasons for the vote. Didn't really want to because the night is comming and the last time i accused somebody at the start of the night i got killed. Here is what i wrote earlier but wanted to keep it to myself until the end of the night I'll catch up on everything and start making cases. I voted for Terra because in my opionion he seems to be trying to hard. The vote/unvote thing bothered me from the start. The matter of fact is that in the beggining it had a positive effect, but in time that kind of posts only start turning people against eachother. I noticed that at a point almost everybody was accusing eachother for various reasons and the conversation went nowhere. More than this people started forming small groups. And i find this a very unhealthy behavior town-wise. In my opinion this was all caused by Nova_Terra. I don't know if it was on purpose or not, but the effect was negative nonetheless. More than this, i saw a post in wich he said ( correct me if i'm wrong here, i went thru everything kinda fast ), that in the last game he got killed for beeing to silent as a mafia. Now his behavior is not closer to normal, but it's the exact same opposite. I think he got mafia again and he tries to act compl different expecting a tottaly different reaction from the people. From what i've noticed, he is not really scum-hunting, he is not thinking on building a case and going after someone that he really belives is mafia, but rather he goes after everybody managing to only create dubt against everybody. Now, that was the reasoning behind my vote. But now that i've read your case-post i am alot more sure of my vote. If i don't die tonight, i am voting for him again. Some strange things are found in this post such as: Now, that was the reasoning behind my vote. But now that i've read your case-post i am alot more sure of my vote. If i don't die tonight, i am voting for him again. Not sure what to think about this. "if I don't die tonight" could be a possible scumslip. And the fact that he was so willing to vote against Nova again seems strange, why would you decide who to vote for now, when it is almost 72h before next lynch? Another pearl I found in this post was this Small line: More than this, i saw a post in wich he said ( correct me if i'm wrong here, i went thru everything kinda fast ), that in the last game he got killed for beeing to silent as a mafia. Very instresting post. Nova even himself claimed that he is spamming alot as mafia, which is easily confirmed if you check his post history. I guess It's possible that he actually was going through everything very fast and missed this. But another possibility is that this post was a way of trying to spread false rumors about Nova with the possibilty of falling back by saying: "Oh, I must have missread that". Not to long ago he posted a long post about most in this game. This post was good in the way that it did show his opinions on several persons. However, it was more of a summary than anything else and didn't add much to the discussion. Also I think his logic was flawed for in some ways, for example giving Therapist (++) only for saying he didn't want to misslynch. And I'm not just saying that cuz I'm mad that I got (----) : ). As you may have noticed I have been refering to Nova in alot of cases. Say what you want about him, he does create some good discussions. As for other honorobel mentions: Therapist - lurking like a boss atm. Said he liked long posts, but is yet to post one himself. Only playing safe cards, could be because he his scum, could be because he is scared townie. Nova - I'm leaing towards town in him. I think he is contributing alot. I also liked Fourfaces/Durants post on that the kill on Crossfire somewhat proves that Nova is innocent because Cross unsure of whether Nova was scum or townie. The following is my take on his post here: - Apologises for inactivity - Confesses that his play has been suspicious, and blames it on inexperience. - Didn't like the way everyone bandwagon'd Nova even though he did it himself * These points are essentially his response to all the suspicion against him at this stage, and I don't believe they go near addressing those suspicions against him. Provides his scumreads: - Mostly focused on Macheji, and how he doesnt like Macheji's case against Nova. Does quote the point where Macheji was wrong about Nova's previous - Highlights Therapists lurky behaviour (something I very much agree with) - States he is leaning town on Nova, though I don't get his statement where he says that Lorants post on the Crossfire kill somewhat proves Nova is innocent. I believe this is a miss-read, as Lorant was saying that he believed the mafia led kill on Crossfire was done in part because Crossfire potentially provided a subtle confirmation that one of the Mafia (Nova in this instance) was town - which is the opposite of what Lazer thought it meant. * He references Nova many times in this post. There is a chance that he is just terrible town, who panicked when he got linked with Nova and reacted to it, then inadvertently led a lynch on someone he considered town before disappearing due to the heat he was under. I have made note of Therapists lurky behaviour earlier today, he is flying way under the radar, so I do agree with Lazers comments on him. But, in terms of my scum reads to date, he rates highest and I feel that in lynching Lazer, we'd be lynching based on a solid set of reasoning - which seems logical to me. So, based on that I'm voting for him. ##Vote: Lazermonkey | ||
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Not a lot to take from it, other than he brings up the fact I did (and continue to) find Nova suspicious. This doesn't affect my vote on him. | ||
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