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Lunchtime post!
To Daymor: History of my read on Nova, since you asked.
- Leaning town at the start for reasons already mentioned
- A few of his actions near the vote seemed dumb or scummy: 6 posts in a row, lack of urgency as macheji was about to be lynched, telling the docs what to do at night. Nova gained a few scumpoints there.
- I also thought the Lazer case was good at that point, but I figured it would be really dumb for Lazer and Nova to band together so close if both are scum. Realized this line of thought wasn’t very useful because it could be WIFOMed.
- I then decided it was better to see if this was partnership or leader-follower instead of WIFOMing. I found out Nova had his own opinions and Lazer was the parasite here. This means Nova is not to be faulted for the connection between those 2, Lazer is.
So at the moment, I would again say Nova is more likely to be town than scum. Nova is not a lynch target for me at the moment. Lazer, though, is very suspicious.
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Lorant has dodged my question of why he thought Pure was scum, other than ‘gut feeling’. I want that question answered. I really, really want that question answered.
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My scumreads right now are the 3 Ls: Lazer, Lorant, and a Lurker.
See Pure’s case and my own comments on Lazer, this case need not be remade. This is the scum I’m most sure of, and so...
##Vote: Lazermonkey
I’ll concentrate on sniffing out the remaining 2 scum. Here’s a case for you:
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Lorant’s play is just insane, and apparently that’s his metagame… But it also contradicts itself.
[about Nova and Lazer vs oneplus] (…) he lost respect and became an easy target, mainly due to your lack of responsibility, he regarded you as a leader and broke his trust and tried to rape his self-esteem. That's why I don't want you to be considered a leader anymore.
No alliance, especially not exclusively against you, just a leadership conglomerate.
But then…
(…) Personally I think Pure-Sc2 is scummy (…)
1. About the statement. I meant to troll. There's no reason to hide my true nature now that it's clear I'm FourFace.
Bolded parts for emphasis. Let’s break this down: Leadership shouldn’t be in the hands of Nova the trustbreaker. It should go to a council on which one is himself (the guy who gets us all to post analysis 2 minutes before the end but trolls town with a jokepost himself – also a breach of trust) and one is someone whom he thinks is scummy. We have here a man full of contradictions.
Lorant’s case on Pure is bad, by the way:
- It is usually true that games with ##No Lynch mention the option in the rules, and I don’t think Pure can be faulted for thinking that no mention in the rules = option is not there, even if that was not clear to others. He was right, by the way.
- The nightposting thing I’m not sure of. We didn’t really discuss the advantages and disadvantages of keeping the night mostly silent; we just did it when Lorant suggested it (Pure included, he did hold back a lot of info), and it might have been a bad move after all. In my other games we just posted at night with no fear and there sure was more information going around. This actually might be a part of why some people lurked – didn’t want to post because there was a town agreement not to, but couldn’t be there at dawn so didn’t post much or at all.
- The rest is his gut feeling again, and fear. He’s not making a case saying “this is the most likely scenario”, he’s making a case saying “this is the worst case I can think of.” This is not how people who want to catch scum think.
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Remains the third L – the Lurker. That would be either Solohan50, Macheji, Therapist or TheRavensName. Hard to tell which, though. I’ll consider Daymor’s case for tonight:
For Daymor, on Macheji: Interesting case. The first 2 posts you point out do seem scummy/bad, 3rd post sounded to me more like “I don’t know how to use my time efficiently” and is mostly newbish.
On the long post: I did note he had a ++ on therapist which seemed weird to me – therapist is a major lurker right now and there’s no particular reason to see him as townie. I also noted he gave a ++ to crossfire and said he didn’t know of the death at the time of writing – that’s dubious, since he sure knew about the death when he wrote “I didn’t know about the death” – so why give us an outdated read instead of a current read on why he was killed? That’s not helpful.
On your “alarm bells”, I liked the first, not the second. Here’s my interpretation of that one:
(...) Also when Oneplus attacks him in one post he says he is not impressed... he's not impressed of what ? When someone innocent is beeing accused of something, does it ever occure to him to say that he is not impressed with the case against him ? (...)
It reads better as “imagine an innocent, would he act like this?”, with the answer likely being “no” in Macheji’s mind. Note that as the guy who dismissed a case with "LOL" last game, I don't agree with macheji's opinion here.
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On Nova’s case about me
- I did call meta change before I got my role. If I took a big step back, it’s because my first 2 games had me attacking all over the place, causing unintentional chaos, and being the juiciest target at LYLO both times, which led to scum victories (though I was never lynched after all, but no one would listen to me).
- A lurker getting modkilled is worse than a lurker getting lynched because you can get information off of the lynch from where people’s votes went. With a modkill you just lose a player for no reason.
- There is a big difference between ‘arguing for and against no-lynch’, and ‘looking at people’s behavior surrounding said issue’. I note that Nova’s case on Solohan relied a lot on said ‘behavior surrounding the issue’, so I don’t see why me commenting on it is scummy. I did focus my analysis on one side of the aisle because that’s the side I thought to be most suspicious, but I did not argue for or against nolynch, which is the real waste of time.
- Real life reasons right now keep me from being here at day apart from lunchtime, and my day is when the majority of player seems to be active. I still try to get out at least a good post at lunchtime and another at night.
- I will remind town I did not only defend Nova; I also attacked him for the macheji modkill stuff. I don’t think I can be accused of stroking his ego with that post, can I?
- As for Nova’s assertion that I don’t say which of Lazer or he is scum at the daybreak post, I note that I did provide a hint as to how town should find out. I simply didn’t have time to carry that analysis out right there, but I later returned and did exactly what I said should be done. I should not be blamed for doing exactly what I said I would do to judge who of Lazer and Nova was most likely to be scum.
- Me asking Lorant for his case on Pure should not be suspicious at all given that he mentioned Pure being scummy in passing, with zero analysis, and Pure was and is my best townread (for logical argumentation and pushing the right person).
- My last post’s ‘defense of Pure’ is to be read mostly as an attack on Lorant, whose case was utterly unconvincing and made in a spirit of ‘what could be the worst possible scenario’ – and worst case scenarios are unlikely to actually be true and more likely to lead to a townie lynch, so I’m inclined to think of people who post them as scummy.
- Thinking there is a scum among the lurkers is not the same as advocating a lurker lynch. I even put a vote on Lazermonkey in the same post, so this accusation by Nova is entirely silly, unless of course he means I’m scummy because I would eventually lynch a lurker... I note Nova also thinks there’s a lurker in the scumteam and presumably he wants to lynch him at some point, so why am I being called scummy for this? This is the same behavior as mine.
My lunchtime is over, someone look into the Nova-Lazer connection as seen in the last few hours, Nova seems to be defending Lazer now.
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Daybreak post!
Therapist’s vote is suspicious. Guy gives the stupidest reason for a vote I’ve ever seen, and the timing just happens to be 30 minutes before day ends? His past posts had no real analysis in them, it’s a bunch of talk about lynch vs no lynch day 1 and then nothing of substance. If we lynch a lurker, it should be this one.
I want to turn to our friendly neighbourhood Daymor for a second, to point out that after going from “lurker lynch” to “no lynch” day 1, his call on day 2… was “lurker lynch” again! It’s true that we had a massive lurker problem on day 2, but that wasn’t less true on day 1.
On the plus side, it did get macheji to post. But I’m seeing another advantage for Daymor himself here: He gets to delay his real vote until he sees where the wagons go.
His strange lurker list at the very start of day 2 where, in a very questionable read, therapist did not get placed in the top category:
Lurking particularly badly
- Macheji
- Solohan50
Lurking but posting enough to get by
- Therapist
- TheRavensName
Contributing, but want more
- BlueyD
- Lorant
The case on macheji:
I’ll note this contradiction by Daymor:
I would be happy to lynch Macheji based off this information as between not contributing and the alarm bells in regards to his case against Nova_Terra I feel comfortable enough sticking with it.
But afterwards, he backs off (admittedly after Macheji contributes) and says his case was not worthy after all:
Macheji is not my strongest scum read, nor do I believe the case was strong enough to lead a lynch, so I do plan on ending the day with my vote on someone else.
Note he does not switch his vote off immediately to either another lurker or a more supported case. That takes another 11 hours.
Daymor’s vote was also the safety vote on Lazer, which helped keep Pure alive, but I don’t know if that has any significance. Anyway I think it’s possible we have a Daymor-Therapist duo here. Don’t know who would be the third yet.
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I cannot be here sunday afternoon due to a large student protest and will in all likelihood not be back at my computer in time for the vote, so I’ll have to put a vote I’m comfortable with as my final vote Sunday morning, at most. I should be here most of saturday, though.
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Fucking hell, I make a case and the guy just gets hit 2 minutes later. >.<
Okay Nova, will wait for your explanation for cop tomorrow.
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Also if anyone got roleblocked day 1 tell us, otherwise I think Lorant is very suspicious.
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Dude your filter is 9 pages.
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Ohhh nevermind I got it, do you mean the stance-switch on Lazer?
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Explanation:
- I had to call ALL the shots and plans and barely had time for my own stuff. I don't think the other 2 guys told me "no, that's a bad idea" once. :-/
- therapist, from the beginning, DID NOT CARE and he should probably have been replaced. the plan had him as the guy on the other side of the table, but he didn't even keep up with the thread and his last votepost was just stupid
- with solohan also getting to the "don't care" phase and telling me he wasn't going to play this out, this game was over and my death was in vain
- I had time to keep up with the thread at work and make small posts in the QT, not much time to do bigger posts in the real thread
- I planned to claim jailkeeper (had a breadcrumb) but learned afterwards that people who get roleblocked (and, I imagine, those who get jailkept) apparently get PMed "you got roleblocked!" even if that had no impact on the outcome. Question to veterans: Is this normal procedure?
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Also, grats to Nova (very good game) and Lorant (crazy bastard, but good analysis).
Taking a break from mafia, might play some more when I have a less busy week or 2, lynching 4F day 1 if I do. :-)
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Oh, right. We have coaches.
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My fault for not asking. :-p
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EPT
