EPTOnly played one game where I was shot night 1. So I'm still a super noob.
Newbie Mini Mafia VIII
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
Only played one game where I was shot night 1. So I'm still a super noob. | ||
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imallinson
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Hello all just woke up and read through the thread so far. I'm kind of worried that a load of time was wasted discussing RNG votes. It seems a bit like Dittert was sending us down a bad path. I'm not sure if that's due to scummyness or newbness but it's definitely something to watch out for. As for Kharad's pressure vote on Hiro it makes sense if he is trying to get a read on him based on info from a previous game. I'm guessing he isn't that suspicious of him after his answer due to the unvote. Finally on lurker votes I'll reiterate what I said in my last game that lurker votes should be a last resort because you have a fair chance of lynching a blue that is hiding in the shadows. | ||
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I didn't mention blue reads at all. I said lurker lynches can get a blue who is trying to hide in the shadows. I never mentioned anyone I thought was blue or how we would figure a blue out. You seem to be looking so hard for slip ups you are making some yourself. | ||
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I've had a good read through your argument against ArcticFox and haven't found any major holes in your logic there. I think that the talking about blues is less important than the stuff he says about policy lynches (although it definitely doesn't help his case). He seems to say that he doesn't want a policy lynch but keeps suggesting various policy lynches: On April 12 2012 10:28 ArcticFox wrote: I would prefer not to have to policy lynch at all, but liars and lurkers is a good place to start. On April 12 2012 08:34 ArcticFox wrote: I'm all for lynching liars above all else. On April 12 2012 10:08 ArcticFox wrote: I'm interested in your thoughts on our policy discussions and such so far. I'd like to see him put up some defence of your accusations. As for Dittert I still can't figure out whether he is just being a newb town or is trying to distract us as scum. He hasn't posted a proper defence yet. "I'm a newb, please don't lynch me" doesn't count | ||
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##Vote: ArcticFox | ||
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On April 13 2012 02:19 ArcticFox wrote: I'm still waiting on a good reason from you on why you're voting Dittert after flat out saying Brood is mafia. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing either way, I simply want your reasoning. Your play isn't making a lot of sense to me right now.. On April 13 2012 01:00 ArcticFox wrote: EBWOP: Also for Yomi -- why is the vote for Dittert if you're sure Brood's scum? But he never actually said he was sure Brood was scum. The closest he got was saying he was suspicious. On April 12 2012 23:56 yomi wrote: I said brood, kharad, dittert are leading a pointless discussion aka suspicious. Or this On April 12 2012 12:31 yomi wrote: nothing to contribute? I am one of the only people to post something substantive, specific, and concrete. I have looked over what's been said and formed ideas. For example I think you are mafia. But even that isn't saying he is sure of it, it sounds a lot more like " I'm suspicious of you." It seems like you are stretching a bit with your accusation of yomi. I don't know whether its you misinterpreting what he is saying or are trying to divert attention away from yourself. To me yomi's vote makes sense, he thought Brood, Dittert and Kharad all had a pointless conversation which made them suspicious. Seeing as Dittert was the one who started that he seems like the most suspicious. | ||
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I'm not entirely sure I'd call the second person agreeing with someones argument a bandwagon, third or fourth maybe. I couldn't really add anything to Xatalos's argument because he had gone through the entirety of ArcticFox's filter at the time. So I added my input my stating that I thought he was overstating part of his argument. There wasn't really much more I could add at the time. That being said I will do it now. Firstly I'm not entirely convinced by this defence On April 12 2012 22:17 ArcticFox wrote: I mentioned policy a bunch of times last night because there wasn't really a lot to discuss at the time. My primary goal was to get a bunch of people talking, which is working. As of right now, everyone has at least something in their filter to work with, even if it's not much, and we're barely 14 hours into a 48 hour day. Good start. I can understand using discussion of plans as a good way to get people talking, but repeating the idea for a plan you think is bad so much seems strange to me. This however is more reasonable as a defence. On April 12 2012 22:17 ArcticFox wrote: I read through my filter to try to see what you saw. I think you're focusing too hard on the exact wording rather than my motivation behind it. However, just after that he says. On April 12 2012 22:17 ArcticFox wrote: I was taking hard stances on the things that actually came up to take stances on. Just as I'm going to do now. Followed by very vague stances on Dittert, Kharad and Hiro. Followed by a reasonable argument against vonKlaust. I would say his point about this On April 12 2012 08:49 vonKlaust wrote: About keeping people from freaking out and start killing each other, I think that's pretty much a part of the game. People make bad reads, and innocent people get lynched. is a bit off because at first it does sound bad and makes it seem like he is wanting town to get killed but it's fairly obvious it's just stating that inevitably there will be some mis-lynches. Seems like its similar to his misinterpreting yomi's suspicion of Brood I posted about just before. | ||
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He so far has a total of 5 posts 3 of which are super short. On April 12 2012 18:29 trumpetarn wrote: About the preassure vote I have agree with acrofales and Xatalos that it seems edgeless the way KharadBanar is doing it and feels somewhat suspicious. Also Dittert seems suspicous with his proposal going down and not contributing to much in the discussion. This is just agreeing with what other people have said and doesn't actually add anything. It's also aiming for the two people who were probably most suspicious at the time. On April 12 2012 18:57 trumpetarn wrote: I agree with you on this what he said or did does not make him a scum, though I would like to hear mor from him and have my eyes on him. More agreeing with other people, still hasn't actually added anything. On April 12 2012 21:07 trumpetarn wrote: I do feel that this early in the game pressure with 2-3 votes against players probably will get anyone of us to get a bit stressed and maybe make us slip no matter if we're scum or not. This I really don't understand he says pressure voting might not be good but doesn't offer an alternative way of getting information. It also doesn't make sense because the pressure was starting to get people talking which is exactly what you want day 1. On April 12 2012 21:07 trumpetarn wrote: About Xatalos I feel some suspicion since he shows up so very eager point people out and so but still it what this game is about so its not much to go on just had some hinch when I read his post... This seems like a mis-read because Xaltos's play so far has seemed very town especially the pressure he is putting on people. On April 12 2012 21:07 trumpetarn wrote: About KharadBanar and Acrofales I think it was pretty useless with the pressure vote and the discussion around everything have given some flavour to everything but I cant really say that KharadBanar is a scum based on it. And the defense from KharadBanar feels ok, it does at least explain the second post IMO pretty well. This is very vague and seems to be echoing what a lot of other people are thinking. On April 12 2012 21:13 trumpetarn wrote: EDWOP: On the votes I also think that this is a game based on Voes so I also think the votes is needed to get pressure on people, we just should be aware of the fact that it might bring out reactions in townies aswell as scum and thats something to take into count. I still think it is a good way to get people to talk. Now he seems to be for pressure, maybe it's because it has got people talking, but is still very cautious about it and seems to be giving scum an excuse for reacting badly to pressure. On April 13 2012 02:06 trumpetarn wrote: I will just refer to my edit were I state that I think It is something to have in mind when pressuring but still this is a part of the game which is our way to find out who are scum and who are not. This is a pretty weak defence. It skirts around the fact that he is effectively giving scum an out. On April 13 2012 02:06 trumpetarn wrote: I will try to not parroting to much in the future, But since this is my first game ever I think it is hard to formulate things sometimes sinces English aint my native language. But as told I will try to be more my own in the future posts. He says this then doesn't post at all after that in almost two hours. It's not parroting other people but he still isn't actually added much. On April 13 2012 02:06 trumpetarn wrote: I don’t really dislike his playstyle, The only thing really was the fact that he came into the game with a long post with accusations, this made me feel like he wanted to fast state that look extra on these people and telling us “I am innocent”. I don’t say he is scum though I just felt a small hinch that this could be a very good play to disguise a mafia play. But giving it some more thoughts I think that it is maybe overworking the analysis since it’s a beginners game but something I thought at least and I think it is important to say everything you think to give everyone as much of my information as possible. This has a bit more on his reason for being suspicious of Xatalos but then straight after that he says he isn't actually that suspicious of Xalatos. Overall I'm rather suspicious of trumpetarn because he has barely posted anything constructive and the one thought of his that wasn't a parrot of other people, his suspicions of Xalatos, he basically cancelled out by saying he was probably overthinking it and wasn't that suspicious of him anyway. I think he is either an exceptionally lurky town or scum trying to stay in the shadows. | ||
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imallinson
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On April 13 2012 03:52 Xatalos wrote: Hmm.. I'll definitely want to hear your opinions on other players than ArcticFox or Dittert. Willz was right in that you didn't really push anything of your own, but rather followed behind. That doesn't look good in my eyes. Also, I wonder about your fast change of heart earlier - your first reaction was to label me as a possible Mafia for suspecting you (OMGUS reaction) and right after that you started agreeing with me on everything. How does that work? I never thought you were mafia and wasn't trying to label you as such. I was just pointing out that what you had said about me wasn't quite accurate. Also this was before you had posted your suspicions on Arctic. You posting those suspicions definitely reinforced you as being probably town in my head. | ||
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On April 13 2012 04:18 Acrofales wrote: Because I am currently trying to figure out Xatalos: imallison, mind telling me why you think he's so townie? Mainly because he was the first person to go out of his way to voice his suspicions of someone. That strikes me as very town like play. | ||
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On April 13 2012 04:33 Acrofales wrote: That was spectacularly underwhelming. Posting a case on someone is not a tell of anything, plenty of reason for scum to post cases (and I should know, I spent most of GoT mafia blowing up townie's mistakes into cases). He probably has the largest filter of anybody and your reason for listing him as your strongest town read is that he was the first to post a case. I won't ask for more, but I hope not everybody is as gullible as that. He is my strongest town read because I have no sort of town read on anyone else. It certainly isn't super strong and if someone had a good argument against him I could be swayed. I assumed that scum wouldn't want to put themselves out there like Xalatos had. I guess that scum could hide behind that which I hadn't thought of. Thank you for pointing that out. | ||
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On April 13 2012 06:09 willz22912 wrote: What's your opinion on my claims against you? Bandwagoning on any vote without good cause is still bandwagoning, even if you're the first person. If I have a different opinion of Xatalos's case vs ArcticFox and I disagree with it, but you still agree with him (meaning you don't agree with my interpretation), why? I also find it highly unlikely that you have no other town reads on anyone else, you just didn't think of anyone else because Xatalos's case against ArcticFox was the only discussion point. Be more assertive and decisive in your opinions. If one good argument sways you then you are the type of town Mafia love to keep around because you sheep other people's thoughts. Don't keep to this line of thinking. Well your claims against me are just that I hadn't posted anything of my own, which I've done now so I'm not really sure there is much to say unless there is something else about me you think is suspicious. Your criticism of me was perfectly valid but I have rectified your concern. As for other town reads I think dittert is more newb town than scum but it would be nice to hear from him. Acrofales I think is town but I'm not sure because he seems to jump his suspicion around a lot and I can't figure out why yet. You I'm leaning towards being town you seem to be fairly helpful and getting useful info from other people. Everyone else is neutral or a bit scummy in my mind. | ||
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On April 13 2012 06:29 willz22912 wrote: Your case on trumpetarm makes sense, are you still voting ArcticFox or are you changing your vote to trumpet based on what you've posted? I personally am giving a lot of people the benefit of being a newb and first game, but I may have clouded my own judgement in thinking this. You say that trumpetarm is more suspicious than dittert, when essentially they are making the same mistake, (lurking, not posting anything constructive) I'm giving people at least another 12 hours for the EU folks to respond to the accusations I've made. I suggest you give a little bit more time for the accused to respond as well. We have the same 4-5 people posting and it's getting us nowhere at this point. I think in the interest of actually getting a response seeing as none has been given yet I will change my vote to trumpet. I think what Arctic and other people have posted about Xatalos's case has convinced me he might not be scum. It's not purely down lurkyness because Dittert has been lurking but apart from the dumb RNG suggestion hasn't posted anything that sounds that scummy. ##Unvote: ArcticFox ##Vote: trumpetarm There are other people I think might be a bit scummy but haven't posted enough to get a good read on. | ||
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Yomi (1): Kharad trumpetarm (1): imallinson Dittert (2): Broodking, Yomi Xatalos (1): Hiro ArcticFox (1): Xatalos | ||
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ArcticFox (0) vonKlaust (1): Xatalos | ||
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On April 13 2012 15:40 Xatalos wrote: imallinson, I noticed a couple of suspicious things about your filter. First of all, this: This post is an almost complete lie. If you look at my filter, I made my case against ArcticFox FIRST and only noticed your (suspicious) post after that. So your reasoning for first saying I'm Mafia and then backing off is extremely questionable, based on this post at least. And you say you never suspected me to begin with? Then what was this post all about: What is that if not accusing me of a Mafia slip? You never said directly I was Mafia, but looking at this sentence, I can see no reason to post it unless you thought I was Mafia. So why did you say later on that you never thought I was suspicious at all? it's not accusing you of a mafia slip at all at the time you were throwing accusations around like crazy, this was about 12 -14 hours in mind you, I was merely suggesting you maybe should calm down and think more logically that saying 4 or 5 people seem scummy with no evidence to back it up. town can make slip ups as well. On April 13 2012 15:40 Xatalos wrote: Other potentially suspicious bits from your filter: - Your first post is very vague and hesitant, typical for a Mafia first post. - Your two Mafia reads so far have been ArcticFox (easy to jump on after me) and trumpetarn (a hardcore lurker who wouldn't defend himself). If Acrofales had flipped town, you could have just put the blame on me instead of yourself. Going after trumpetarn is very easy and harmless for you, because even if he flips town, nobody will blame you for being suspicious of an anti-town lurker. - Your sudden vote list is a "classic" Mafia tactic to appear useful without actually being useful. It's not really a reason to lynch you, but also considering the other stuff, it all adds up. - Over half the people here had hesitant first posts. - I picked trumpetarm at random out of the people who were lurking to make a case either way on because Willz suggested I make a case on someone who wasn't in the spotlight to put my own opinions out there. I'm not sure what Acrofales getting lynched has to do with anything no one has really suggested he might be scum. And ArcticFox was me agreeing with your case. If people agreeing with you makes them scummy I don't know what to say. - The vote list was because Willz had just asked if we could have a separate vote thread because it was hard to figure out where the votes were. I don't see how that is in anyway scummy. | ||
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I feel like I've been posting a decent amount, I'm certainly not the most prolific of posters, but I've stopped posting as much about other people's analysis because I was criticised for it earlier. I'm kind of waiting for a response from trumpetarm beyond "I'm not here that much so I can't post a lot." I still haven't actually seen a proper defence from him yet. I'd also like to get a read on Hiro but he still hasn't posted anything of worth besides the weakest of cases against you then following you in jumping on vonKlaus. | ||
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Seeing as you unvoted yomi do you still think he could be scum? Also why do you think Willz is more scummy? | ||
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On April 14 2012 02:11 willz22912 wrote: I called out imallinson because he was so quick to drop his stances on everything with a "good argument" and that Xatalos was letting him latch onto his case against ArcticFox without any questioning. HiroPro has also not contributed nearly as much as he could have. I dropped my stance on Arctic after he and other people had poked holes in Xatalos' argument, which seems perfectly reasonable to me. Then I made a case against trumpetarn and have stuck with it when bandwaggoning you would have been the easiest thing in the world. I'm not entirely sure why you think I am so quick to drop my stances (especially confused about the plurality there I have only changed my vote once and that was due to a reasoned counter-argument). | ||
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On April 14 2012 06:38 BroodKingEXE wrote: This vote is way to close I am going to vote for Yomi to make sure Mafia don't get the initiative to switch. This makes some sense but I have a feeling scum wouldn't try to save a fellow scum now it would look way too obvious given the current discussion. On April 14 2012 06:38 BroodKingEXE wrote: I have already put some thoughts down, but his recent posts haven't helped his case. He talks about how he has been flaming, and that he is going to get more information. The problem with this is that its roughly 1.5 hours to vote, any information he brings foward won't be able to analyzed properly and the voting will turn to chaos. This is kind of true, yomi really hasn't made himself look good, but voting for someone because they can no longer save themselves is dumb and pointless. On April 14 2012 06:38 BroodKingEXE wrote: Although I think willz is more likely scum. ##Unvote ##Vote: Yomi What ... This makes no sense what so ever. Why would you vote for someone if you didn't think they were scum. This whole post reeks of scum realising their ally is about to get lynched and trying to get some town cred from bandwaggoning on him. I still think yomi is pretty scummy at the moment but BroodKing definitely looks worse now. ##Unvote ##Vote: BroodKingEXE | ||
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On April 14 2012 07:06 vonKlaust wrote: Where is Willz btw? Did he give up? I'm guessing he did. It will be a nice suprise for him when he gets back. He is still alive and most likely confirmed town. | ||
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On April 14 2012 07:11 KharadBanar wrote: Fixed I seriously can't stand that people are thinking of other people as confirmed, especially after I spectated TL Mafia LI and the events therein. That game hat the most epic bus of all time between VisceraEyes and Toadesstern, and EVERYBODY thought Toadesstern would be confirmed town after VE flipped. (Spoiler alert: Toad was scum.) So please don't consider someone confirmed town if they haven't flipped yet. Ever. Please. Its why I added the most likely but yes bad wording on my part. | ||
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I was not expecting that How do make such a big scumslip as town? | ||
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Now my thoughts on some of our other townsmembers. Dittert: After his last post I'm really not convinced about the dumb town thing any more. Someone who isn't confident about their ability doesn't chastise people and call them idiots. All I hear about is how "such and such FEELS scummy/townie to me." After 3 or less games of mafia, what makes you think your intuition is worth anything? I will admit there have been some fairly weak arguments (yomi, Xatalos and myself have all been guilty of this although Dittert is as well) however it's day 1 in a newbie game we probably aren't going to be seeing any Holmes-esque deductions yet. For everyone who saw Brood's play as "so obviously mafia/scumslip," what do you think of your judgement now? As I mentioned before, I thought Brood was just kind of bad town (or as I said, "says some really stupid shit"). I think ArcticFox said it best here "That was the dumbest thing I think I've ever seen." He's right it was a dumb slip by Brood whether he is town or scum. Looking back at it it's easy to say it was a stupid thing to go for. What irks me is that before I left, we had a pretty good case going against willz and a general ##FoS pointed at yomi. Once willz started posting more, everyone seemed to think that he must be town (why does posting more mean you're town, especially when posts with any kind of substance whatsoever came after Acro and myself built a strong case against him). It's not just because he started posting more. He actually put up some sort of defence (in between the moping), then yomi started looking more suspicious so the vote started to move to him, finally Brood posted his dumb slip and the vote moved to him. This all makes sense from a town perspective, everyone voted for who they thought was most suspicious at the time. Okay, so if you're convinced willz is town, why not vote for yomi? Yomi didn't even really have a defense, and I don't understand why everyone switched off of him. People did vote for yomi and I don't think anyone has switched off of him. He is certainly high on my list of suspicious people (more on that later). Does post X make sense if so and so is town? What about if they're mafia? Do I see a pattern of posting between people? Remember that the mafia are coordinating with each other. Can you pick out anything that looks like coordination between 3 people? If you think so and so is mafia, with whom are they working? Can you construct a consistent and compelling story about what might be happening in the thread? Are you willing to assume that most people are just chattering townies (which is statistically true)? A lot of this has been said before in the cases against Willz and yomi. This reeks of trying to be helpful while not actually contributing. And for everyone who consistently says that my logic is dumb, my posts are bad, and my reads are wrong, my only read on brood was that he was a townie doing dumb stuff. Looks like I'm 1 for 1, or 2 for 2 if you count the townie part and the dumb stuff (like making a "scumslip" at the last minute) as 2 separate things. This read of yours is both well before he slipped up and after he flipped town. You didn't have much reason to suspect him in the former and have hindsight in the later. You seem to be using the fact you weren't here when the vote flipped to Brood to show you as innocent which I'm not buying. It's easy to say a vote was stupid after it has happened if you had responded as such while it was happening I might take your accusations a bit more seriously. That whole post seems scummy to me ##FoS: Dittert yomi: I'm really not sure about you at the moment. There have been decent arguments against you you never properly responded to but your posting is so erratic and nonsensical that I think you might just be a really bad town player. I would think scum would be more careful and considered in their posting. That being said you are playing so badly currently I'm thinking you wouldn't be a terrible lynch / vig shot. I would really like to get some calmer some reasoned stuff from you. Xatalos: The one good point, although not conveyed well, that yomi made is about you Xatalos. You have actually been suspicious of, to various degrees, or have voted against everyone except yourself and trumpetarn who barely counts because he stopped posting midway through day 1. I can't see a reason why any town would be so suspicious of everyone around him. I understand being wary and throwing a few accusations around but you have taken it to an extreme. I'm not sure whether you are town or scum but I really would like to know why you are so suspicious of everybody. Willz: Everyone seemed to let you off the hook somewhat after yomi became suspect #1 and I will admit you were definitely helpful in what you thought were your death throes posting your reads on others but the mopyness and self voting really helps only the scum. I don't know whether you are town or scum at the moment but you need to cut that shit out. I'll just post short thoughts on everyone else as I don't have mountains to say about them. vonKlaus: You strike me as fairly town. You have defended your self well and haven't been afraid to makes cases. ArcticFox: Again you seem town for the same reasons as vonKlaus. Acrofales: You are probably my strongest town read. You made an excellent well reasoned case against Willz. KharadBanar: Your posting can be a bit sporadic but is helpful when it exists. I hope to see you really shine now we are past day 1. HiroPro: I don't know what to say about you, you barely post. You also seem to flop about a fair bit with your voting mainly following other people. | ||
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I'm not sure if you realise or not, because you seem very adamant about the vig shooting someone tonight, their ability is once per game not once per night. It's a lot better to save it till they are almost sure their target is scum. Having the vig shoot town basically loses us a blue for a loss for town. | ||
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Can you please stop insisting on the vig shooting someone tonight. It's a terrible idea. No one has a solid enough read on anyone to be sure you are hitting scum. The vig shooting town is effectively handing a blue kill to scum, because you shoot a vanilla town and the vig effectively becomes green after using his shot. There is an even worse scenario where the vig shoots another blue and we are down two blues night 1. That isn't a risk we should take. Although that would sure help scum a lot which makes me wonder why you keep insisting on it. | ||
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On April 15 2012 03:40 Xatalos wrote: If yomi were town, I have the feeling he would have been at least a bit more confident with that statement. I can't say it's a definite Mafia slip, but I just get a strong feeling something is off with that. That makes absolutely no sense, if he was mafia he would know 100% that Willz is town. Being town he can have a hunch but not be sure. On April 15 2012 03:40 Xatalos wrote: If I saw someone getting bandwagoned whom I thought was town (for example you, Acrofales), I wouldn't just say something like "and I think you guys need to reconsider Acrofales" and then disappear from the thread, leaving you to be lynched freely. I would clearly state why you shouldn't be lynched and push for a better lynch. Maybe he doesn't have any actual evidence but it is a weird hunch as you say your thoughts about Willz are. I see no difference between his comment and your apart from being on opposite sides. On April 15 2012 03:40 Xatalos wrote: I'll try to explain this again. It's not an argument based on hard facts, but rather the weird feeling I got from his case against Dittert earlier. On April 15 2012 03:40 Xatalos wrote: Of course if I was Mafia, then I would just laugh in the shadows and leave you to be lynched freely while saying just something like "this vote is a mistake, you'll all regret this tomorrow". It would make me look good for the next day, but it would do absolutely nothing to actually save you from the lynch. To me, it looks like this was exactly what yomi did there. Just because a mafia would do this doesn't mean a town wouldn't you are really straying into so WIFOMy reasoning. | ||
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Meant to ##Vote: Dittert | ||
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On April 15 2012 09:01 Xatalos wrote: I have to mention this post. I'm a bit confused about what you're trying to say here, but I take it yomi is your best Mafia read... Yet you're willing to follow Acrofales unquestioningly and abandon both yomi and Willz for today? I'm not sure what to make of this, but at least it isn't a good or reasonable play by you. I'm going to sleep pretty soon, so good night and think seriously about this post! You obviously didn't read my post in the night where I made it fairly obvious Dittert was my #1 scum read at the moment (it's here if you would like to). So no yomi isn't my best mafia read, Dittert is. I'm also not following Acrofales unquestioningly, I seconded his vote because he beat me to posting. I was going to vote for Dittert anyway at the begining of the Day. I'm not sure whether you are intentionally misreading stuff now. | ||
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On April 15 2012 08:29 willz22912 wrote: I really have no idea what the hell Dittert is doing. Should we really ditch all D2 discussion and let this vote go through? If he's going to be modkilled/replaced we may as well look at someone else or at least save him from another day. If we mis-lynch him today and Mafia kill another town again N2 we're at 5-3 D3, going to be hard to win at that point. We definitely shouldn't ditch the discussion and if a better candidate comes up we should lynch them. However, I for one am not going to let someone martyr themselves as an easy out. | ||
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On April 16 2012 01:16 willz22912 wrote: Can you explain the underlined part here a little better? Are you saying you will or will not let Dittert martyr himself? I have no idea what Dittert's plan is for doing this as town considering if we mis-lynch again and lose another town during the night it's going to be 5-3 D3, which is pretty much mylo for town. My thoughts are basically that Dittert is my #1 scum read at the moment, yomi is #2 and you and Xatalos are tied for #3 at this point. If someone makes a case that replaces Dittert as my #1 of course I will change my vote. What I mean my not letting him martyr himself as an easy way out is that his martyring hasn't dropped my suspicion of him at all. If he had done what you had done and actually posted stuff that was useful to the town I would be more inclined to think he was town. The fact he basically said I'm off you guys are on your own and even suggested bringing the day 2 deadline forward makes me think he wants as little discussion going on as possible which seems exceptionally scummy to me. I honestly think he is scum who knows he is dead and is allowing his team to bus him to stop town getting any useful disscusion going day 2. | ||
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[QUOTE]On April 16 2012 01:42 Acrofales wrote: Dittert/willz is a really really unlikely bus pair like I described above. Dittert/yomi is only slightly more likely, because I feel like they're pretty new players even if they're scum and I don't think really new players would have the balls to bus that hard. yomi/willz is still an unlikely bus, seeing as each of them voted for each other to save himself, but it's at least thinkable for me. yomi/Xatalos is a pair which I wouldn't describe as that unlikely, because if Xatalos is scum, the easy way for him to get some credibility is to accuse his really scummily behaving team member. I have the feeling a scum bus could naturally evolve from that.[/QUOTE] I agree with the analysis of these pairings. the yomi/Xatalos makes the most sense if we assume Xatalos busses yomi seeing his scummy like play day 1. However I think the most obvious pairing to me is Dittert/Xatalos. When yomi posted his case against Dittert, Xatalos stepped in to defend him. Yomi's case wasn't the best so it was fairly easy for Xatalos to defend Dittert without being too suspicious. Night 1 all his blue talk makes me think he seems scummy but that has been talked to already. He also keeps tunnelling on yomi who is still looking very weak and it strikes me this could be an easy mis-lynch to go for. However at the start of Day 2 everyone votes for Dittert and Xatalos starts seeing his team-mate is probably going to get lynched and slowly comes off tunnelling yomi, while explaining he is broadening his scum hunting. Finally he joins what seems like an inevitable bandwaggon on Dittert allowing him to get some cheap town cred when Dittert flips. | ||
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I don't think two people not attacking each other means they are both scum. Hiro defending Dittert is interesting, but you have to remember it was at a time when everyone but you had Dittert pegged as newb town so I'm not as confidident that it is suspicious behaviour. As for Dittert jumping on you when you linked the two of them I don't think both those things are linked. He came with good arguments as to why you seemed scummy and it doesn't strike me as him defending Hiro. Again this was early on in Day 1 and people were throwing accusations around a lot. | ||
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##FoS: Xatalos | ||
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On April 16 2012 07:04 HiroPro wrote: This post is a sham. Xatalos offers absolutely no explanation for the discrepancy between him making a case on ArcticFox based on talking about blues and then trying to direct and control blue actions himself at night (other than some bs about oh well you know it wasn't the best or most useful thing i could have done. but you know it was good it was good i tell you). He makes a vote switch from yomi to Dittert because he's scared that there's an actual case on him, so he needs to focus attention on an easy target to lynch (Notice how he doesn't base his vote switch on actual reads or reasoning; it's just bs about how "oh this will probably gives us better info"). And now a guy who was acting so cocky and confident early on is like "oh yeah i made mistakes, my credibility dropped, but still guys you gotta trust me just because). Xatalos is mafia. Do not let him escape. I'm starting to be very convinced of Xatalos being scum. I'd say he and Dittert are about equal scum reads now in my opinion. However I am not going to change my vote at the moment because I still think there is a high chance Dittert is scum and I will wait until he gets back and responds (I will probably be asleep when he does but we shall see in the morning). | ||
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On April 16 2012 07:16 yomi wrote: havent read the whole thing yet but 3/6 of the players are mafia according to you as you said so starting % should be 50% I think the percentages are designed to add up to 100%. It would make more sense to add up to 300% seeing as there are 3 scum. I'd just times all the values by 3. | ||
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First we get a nice long post from Dittert: I couldn't understand Willz's motive for admitting to the merits of Acro's case, especially after everyone seemed to agree that my case against Willz was OMGUS and meritless. Then it struck me: Confusion. By admitting to the merits of Acro's case, Willz has started you down the WIFOM path. You basically can't help but think "surely a mafia wouldn't admit to the merits of someone else's case against them... but then maybe they know no one would think a mafia would do that... etc., etc." Using WIFOM reasoning is apparently kind of dumb, but instigating that kind of thinking in someone else... it's brilliant. The problem with this reasoning is that it itself is WIFOM. Acrofales had made a good case and Willz admitting it doesn't make him scum. It doesn't make him town either. The other thing that struck me as odd is Willz' continued defense of me, despite my constant attacks on him. He's planting evidence that we're on the same team. Here are some posts Willz will quote when I flip town: Setting yourself on my team is ultra-risky right now if you think there's even a chance I might be mafia (and there's a strong general consesus that I just might be). Willz knows his play is safe, however, because being mafia, he knows with 100% certainty that I am town. He's hoping for a Dittert lynch (and that's looking likely at this point) so that he can ride my townie coattails to victory. His posts Day 2 weren't exactly defending you. You martyring yourself kind of killed the discussion for a bit and Willz was trying to start it back up again. This strikes me as a very town thing to do, if you are town scum would love it if the discussion died and you got lynched as we would go into day 3 with very little info and be 5-3. This is the same thing he did when he was about to get lynched Day 1. I also went back and read ArcticFox's filter, since the newbie guides claim that mafia's number one priority should be shooting people who are on the right track. Who was Arctic leaning towards before the Broodwagon occurred? Why it's Willz and Yomi! (Arctic's mistake was sounding sane and reasonable, unlike crazy ol' Dittert here, who had the same reads but a much worse way of conveying them.) The problem here is that during the night it was you who ArcticFox was most suspicious of. Also most of trying to figure out why a night kill was killed ends up being very WIFOM. It's possible he was killed because he knew too much but its also possible because he had good logic in some wrong reads and that scared scum or that they just thought he was an easy target. I still think they're the most likely mafia pair, especially after Yomi spent all of D1 claiming that But then later, Yomi denies it. Claiming someone is basically "100% town" now passes for "frequent attacks"? Bollocks. This is certainly interesting and if Willz was scum it might implicate Yomi to some degree but I don't think Willz is scum. This is followed by some pointless back and forth between Dittert and Yomi and Acrofales switching his vote to Xatalos. Then Sir Spamalot himself returns and makes 11 posts that has Dittert posting once in the middle (this is the point where I realise it wasn't so much a back and forth as Xatalos posting a ton). I might even be somewhat inclined to vote for HiroPro instead of Dittert or yomi, but with this current situation of me/Dittert stalemate, I'm still going to keep my vote on Dittert (he has an infinitely higher chance of being Mafia than myself, after all...). ##FOS: HiroPro So we start with some good ol' OMGUS with absolutely no reasoning to back it up. Xatalos you might be 100% sure you are town but no one else is and you can't use it as reasoning in your arguments. It was just a failed theory based on yomi being Doctor and Willz town, but since I completely misunderstood yomi's post and thought Doctors could heal themselves, it looked like it made a lot of sense at first. I didn't want to reveal this theory not because I had checked yomi's alignment, but because if I was right, yomi would probably be the next night hit target (roleblock+KP). However, since this theory was a complete failure, it doesn't hurt to say it now... Xatalos really seems to have been hiding behind being a newb recently which I find very odd given his confidence earlier in the game (he has basically done an anti-Dittert, which actually strikes me as more scummy). Then there are some more pointless posts from Xatalos. Then this. Nice to see you posting at last. I agree with most of your reads (although not about myself of course...), but there really isn't too much content in this post, not even as much as in my latest Mafia/town read post. I want to ask a couple of questions: A) Why do you think I lack focus, when I have actually tunneled most of the game (ArcticFox, yomi) and almost completely focused on Mafia reads? B) Why is it suspicious to be "active and pro-town"? It's just WIFOM to think Mafia's strategy would be to appear as pro-town as possible, considering it's an extremely difficult lie to keep up and bound to fail at some point. It's been said multiple times why you lack focus, you have actually managed to both lack focus and tunnel on people. This is followed my yet more pointless stuff, then. I don't really get this... Lynching me just because it would give good information, even though you don't believe I am the most likely Mafia, or possibly even Mafia at all? I'm willing to believe this isn't a serious vote, but if it is, I need to reconsider my opinion of you... I find this exceptionally weird seeing as you suggested lynches and even vig shots for the purposes of info gathering but when it's you who gets lynched for info it suddenly doesn't make any sense. So then we get to Dittert's post. ArcticFox hardly mentions me and I don't think even mentions HiroPro at all (or maybe early on). If you read his filter and deduce these mafia reads, you need to go back to... reading school? This worries me because ArcticFox does mention him, at length. However he is right about ArcticFox not mentioning Hiro much. I was starting to become less suspicious of Dittert but this post seems off to me. It worries me that both Dittert and Xatalos seem to both omit information to try and reinforce their arguments. I don't know if it's scummy but it's definitely bad logic. With that short intermission done we return to Xatalos. Okay, so you're suspicious of my hypocrisy about blue talk instead of the act of blue talk itself. However, you fail to see one thing: I haven't fished for blues or speculated about people's roles (outside of yomi, which was a total failure anyway and can't be considered a serious post at this point). The one thing I have done is directing blue roles, which might not usually be the best idea, but consider a couple of points: A) this is a newbie game, you can't count on the blues to know what they're doing B) even if the blues don't obey my direction, it would be now impossible for Mafia to kill either me or Acrofales without taking a huge risk. I don't think this was a very suspicious move, especially considering a lot of others suggested to shoot yomi as well (and some also to heal Acrofales). The problem is nobody was blue fishing. ArcticFox mentions blues twice (once complimenting Kharad on a previous game and once as part of the reason a RNG lynch was bad) and I mention it once (as an argument against a lynch all lurkers policy). In fact the only thing that could be considered blue fishing was your post saying yomi had basically RCed which "can't be considered a serious post." I think the main reason for you directing blues is so you can get yourself jailed giving you town cred when the scum kill goes through anyway. I might have been a bit overconfident at the start because of how well my previous game went, but I still think I was somewhat reasonable in my accusations, even if I sometimes made mistakes with logical conclusions. If nothing else, my ArcticFox case generated a lot of reactions (bandwagon-jumping, refusal, ignoring) which could be analyzed later. Nothing much came out of my imallinson case, but HiroPro immediately jumped on vonKlaust, making me believe they are town&town or Mafia&town, but likely not Mafia&Mafia. My yomi case was even more succesful in pushing discussion and getting a wide scale of reactions from different people. This can all be used well if we get to see yomi's flip at some point. I don't think it's suspicious to say I'm sad about my stupidity with yomi's post, since it was totally unnecessary after all. However, looking back on it, it might not have been such a bad thing after all. Now, instead of a massive Dittert bandwagon, we have a bandwagon on both me and Dittert. This is a LOT more useful for analyzing people's behaviour later than if everyone had just voted for Dittert. In case I don't get lynched, it was actually a "good" move to make that stupid post earlier. This is a lot of explaining why he switched from overconfident to meek so quickly and what strikes me as a desperate attempt to show how helpful he has been to the town (bearing in mind this is in the middle of a ton of spam). This is followed by responding to Dittert's post and pointing out that ArcticFox did mention Dittert and FoSed him, however it also glosses over the fact that he was completely wrong about ArcticFox going after Hiro (who Xatalos has been going after for no reason I can see). Then a little more follow up in some more short posts. Also while I have been typing this he has posted yet again. What I get from Dittert's filter (which fits into only one page, quite an achievement...) is that his proposed Mafia team is this: - ArcticFox (now a confirmed townie) ---> Xatalos (a confirmed townie for myself, although I can't prove it without being killed, and I'm not willing to do that just to prove Dittert's very likely maliciousness...) - Willz (a quite likely townie in my eyes, although I dislike him wanting to lynch me only to gather information) - yomi (suspicious & an easy target, yet most likely town if Dittert is Mafia) Do you see a trend? It seems entirely possible to me that every one of Dittert's Mafia reads are actually town (at least everyone can agree ArcticFox is, and I can know about myself)... Especially if he himself is Mafia, in which case yomi is quite redeemed for tunneling him all game. If we assume Dittert is Mafia, I think the complete Mafia team is this: - Dittert - HiroPro - Funcmode/imallinson I don't know why the discussion died completely, but I'm still awaiting responses to the posts I earlier addressed to everyone voting for me right now. If you read my response to your personal accusation, then read my other posts today and still think I'm Mafia, please post why and I'll try to answer you as well as I can. He disagrees with Dittert's list saying all the people on it are probably town but gives no explanation to why he thinks that besides saying Dittert being scum helps the case that they are town. Given that we don't know Dittert's alignment this doesn't help us at the moment. He asks if we see a trend and honestly I don't. I'm not entirely sure where he is getting his mafia list from but he certainly isn't backing it up. This is also under the assumption that Dittert is scum (again we have no idea of this now) but as for the people on it Hiro is a massive OMGUS with absolutely no evidence to back it up. Funcmode I assume is on there because he is an unknown at this point and is a decent person to fill in slot three. And he has made absolutely no argument for why I am on here. All of this makes me very, very suspicious of Xatalos. He has spread a ton of confusion by throwing random accusations around and generally spamming up the thread. He keeps trying to shove the fact he is helping down our throats but he has done more harm than good. I think he is scum who has done a very good job at distracting us from getting good scumhunting done. As for Dittert I'm definitely still suspicious of him, but am starting to think he might actually be a decent town player who was super nervous Day 1 and just in a bad mood after that. ##Unvote ##Vote: Xatalos | ||
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While I find the analysis of voting patterns very interesting I'm not exactly sure how it helps us. To draw any conclusions from it we need to know the alignment of at least two people we don't already know. If you think there are any conclusions we can draw currently I'd love to know. As for your concerns about me. I realise I seem fairly lurky compared to some people but I post all the relevant information and thoughts I have my flying under the radar certainly isn't deliberate. I feel if I was posting a lot more I would be repeating myself or others or just spamming the thread up. Me making a case on BroodKing was just down to a personal policy of mine to always back up my votes with an argument so others can see what I was thinking when I voted. I don't feel I sheeped Dittert at the start of day 2, I posted a long case on why he struck me as suspicious in the night and it just happened you voted for him before I did. | ||
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Dittert is Scum If Dittert is scum it makes a lot of sense that Hiro is scum as well. Hiro makes a case for someone who is weak when his team mate is looking to get lynched. I think this is probably the case both ways (If Hiro ends up getting lynched and flips scum Dittert is probably scum too). Dittert is Town However, if Dittert is town then it makes no sense for Hiro to be scum, he completely shuns the current consensus that Dittert is scum and goes for someone else to get lynched when it makes no difference to him. Therefore if Dittert is town I'm fairly sure Hiro is town. Consequently this makes me think Xatalos is scum. So while your Hiro case has merit Acrofales, I still think Xatalos is the scummier of him and Dittert leaving Hiro as town. | ||
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On April 17 2012 05:01 Acrofales wrote: EBWOP: I also dislike the logic in your last post. You don't actually ever convince me that Dittert or HiroPro is town and I should move back to Xatalos. Instead, you bring up a good point for suspecting Dittert again, but still stick to Xatalos. That is your good right, but what makes you like Xatalos for a lynch? I still think that Xatalos has managed to distract and confuse everyone with his posting. Every time it's been pointed out to him he has increased his posting. He has accused absolutely everyone of seeming scummy and tunnelled on an exceptionally weak player. It all looks like he is to trying to stop people getting good discussion going. I can't understand any of this from a town perspective. I'm fairly sure Xatalos and Hiro can't both be scum and out of the cases that the two have them have made so far Hiro's I can see from a town perspective Xatalos' I can't. I will have a good look through Hiro's filter to try and see what you are seeing. | ||
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Why Am I Town? I'm the first to admit I have had many faults, the greatest of which are these: - Tunnel Vision: ignoring a lot of stuff, especially alternative explanations for events (such as yomi voting for Willz to save himself not being a Mafia-specific action) - Confirmation Bias: focusing on proving myself right more than on finding the truth (I had a pretty hard time letting go off my ArcticFox suspicions, although my reasons for suspecting him weren't very good to begin with) - Paranoia: mentioning every little suspicious detail from pretty much every player so far (I even mentioned specifically Acrofales for lurking the Day 1 lynch, although he was far from the only lurker in that situation and wasn't even otherwise suspicious at all) - Stupidity: misunderstanding rules, posts and even pronouns (my greatest moment of stupidity was thinking yomi claimed doctor while he was just talking in general) Firstly he isn't the first to admit his faults, he continued them long after he was criticized for doing them. Most of this is set-up for the next part but I would like to add one more point. Spamming: He posted a lot of unnecessary and pointless rubbish which obfuscated any point he was trying to make and made him much harder to read. But I want you to take a moment and consider: is that the only explanation? - Tunnel Vision is not really a Mafia trait, since Mafia would be happy to lynch any townie, not a specific townie - Confirmation Bias is plausibly a Mafia trait, since Mafia know the roles of everyone and thus want to prove themselves right instead of finding the truth - Paranoia is not really a Mafia trait, since Mafia don't have any need to be suspicious of their fellow players or to gather too much attention - Stupidity is neither a town or Mafia trait In conclusion, only one of the reasons for my sometimes anti-town play is a Mafia trait. Even so, it's not exclusively a Mafia trait, but rather a trait of a person emotional about something (in this case, lynching Mafia). There is an awful lot of WIFOMy reasoning here, assuming what mafia will do. His points about the tunnel vision and paranoia are reasonable. Add in the spamming which is definitely a scum trait because it serves as a distraction. So were half and half on scum town traits. Now, what pro-town have I done to redeem these faults? - Activity: I have posted a lot, more than anyone else - perhaps not as much useful content as Acrofales or KharadBanar, but definitely among the most even in that category - Transparency: I have been like an open book, giving my opinion on everything without hesitation, never being afraid of suspicious slips or being proved wrong in the end - Focus on Mafia Hunting: most of my posts consist of accusing a player, noticing suspicious behaviour, giving my Mafia reads, demanding explanations, demanding activity or analyzing possible Mafia&Mafia / town & Mafia / town & town interactions between two players All of my anti-town plays are (at least somewhat) explainable from a town perspective, but are these pro-town plays explainable from a Mafia perspective? This is where I think you start to redeem yourself. I still maintain that a lot of your activity has been helpful with a decent amount being downright unhelpful. However I can't argue with the fact that you have been transparent (maybe a bit too transparent) and you have been focussed very heavily on scum hunting which makes much more sense for you as town. Onto your argument for Hiro. First of all, why would making a bad case be lynch-worthy? It's actually more likely for townies than Mafia to make bad cases, since Mafia have more information available (they know who are town and more easily see the townie perspective for posting things). So, HiroPro's case is actually pretty bad, which is hypocritical since he accuses me of posting a bad case. However, it doesn't look like he believed in his own case even himself, since when I posted a slightly better case he just unvoted immediately and jumped on the next possible bandwagon I had created. Funny, considering he later accused me of "throwing blame around and seeing where it sticks". Another hypocritical comment from him, seeing as he was himself searching for a bandwagon with enough support and not searching for Mafia. When it looked like the vonKlaust case wasn't getting support either, he quickly stepped off of it. I thought at the time that Hiro's case against you was bad. But I figured it was just a bad argument early day 1 when there weren't any good arguments around. I also agree his voting Day 1 was quite bandwaggony. Especially in the case of jumping on super late to the BroodWaggon. HiroPro defends Dittert and attacks yomi. Considering the possibility that HiroPro & Dittert are Mafia, this would make a lot of sense - diverting suspicion to yomi of the two "most suspicious players" at the time. HiroPro's hypocrisy comes through again: he claims yomi is scummy for "calling out people as Mafia without solid reasoning", yet he himself calls yomi out as Mafia without much of any reasoning (except yomi's lack of solid reasoning). The Dittert / Hiro link does make a lot of sense to me, more so from the Day 2 events. It's also interesting that this is the second time he has called someone out for something he is doing at the time. This is actually HiroPro's most pro-town post in the game, although it isn't without issues either. "The Blue Shift" is a valid point (at least to some extent), but "The Distraction Factor" is again hypocritical. HiroPro claims I "want to identify several possible candidates to lynch and then focus on the one that I think town would be willing to follow through on". This is exactly what HiroPro has been doing: throwing accusations without much basis, creating and jumping on bandwagons eagerly but without conviction (backing off fast if it doesn't take fire), focusing on finding a good bandwagon instead of searching for Mafia. Another suspicious thing about this post is the timing: if HiroPro and Dittert are a Mafia team, it would make a lot of sense to divert the vote from Dittert to me like this. If Dittert is town, however, the timing of this post would make HiroPro less suspicious (why risk switching the vote off of a townie who has already pretty much given up?). The logical conclusion is that most likely HiroPro and Dittert are both Mafia or both town. Both Mafia seems more likely considering HiroPro's weird trust in Dittert (whom most of the town find suspicious). While the "Blue Shift" part of his argument is valid and the "Distraction Factor" is certainly accurate for Xatalos, it also has some merit for Hiro himself. It seems a lot of Xatalos' argument weighs on Hiro being hypocritical, which while valid I don't think is enough to lynch him for. However I think Acrofales' argument against Hiro is much stronger. I agree that Hiro going after Xatalos is strange especially given the timing. I did have an idea of why this could mean he was town but it would require circumstances that haven't occurred so I am scrapping this theory. This leaves only the option I can think of as Hiro being scum and Dittert is his team mate. At this point I can see no other reason for Hiro to suddenly jump on Xatalos apart from to defend Dittert. After his post accusing Xatalos the is one more calling out Xatalos' case against Dittert, which strengthens my feeling they are both scum. The fact that Xatalos changed his vote later to Hiro when there were barely any votes for him makes me think he might actually be town as I can't see a scum reason for this that isn't a huge heap of WIFOM. The silence after defending Dittert is fairly damning I think because this is when the pressure eases of Dittert and onto Xataalos. At this point I think Hiro thinks he has succeeded in saving Dittert and getting Xatalos lynched. While I am still suspicious of Xatalos because he has done some fairly anti-town things so far. He has stepped up his posting recently and his and Acrofales' cases against Hiro hold up better than Hiro's against Xatalos. ##Unvote ##Vote: HiroPro The end of this ended up | ||
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I was going to say that the end of my post was a bit rushed because I wanted to get it out in a decent time before the deadline. because the votes were so close. However Yomi and Willz both jumped on while I was typing so that kind of invalidates that concern. | ||
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On April 17 2012 07:57 funcmode wrote: Well, I've stated twice now that I suspect imallinson quite highly and he's had a couple of chances to address my suspicions but said nothing. Maybe it's because he doesn't think my opinion's are worth much so it's better for him to just ignore them than risk putting himself in the spotlight, though I guess there's potentially town-mentality in that approach too. Can you explain your reasoning for suspecting me beyond my (up until recently and beyond my control) lurking and the fact that I thought Dittert might be townie after all (though I still maintained high suspicion and many others shared the same opinion at one point or another)? You have said you are suspicious of me but not really why. I can't respond unless I have something specific to respond to. As for you I have a completely neutral read you haven't posted enough for me to get a good read yet. | ||
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On April 18 2012 00:02 yomi wrote: Well my biggest read is xat and I kind of have blinders on for him right now. All I can think about is who his teammates are but I need to take a few steps back and consider others. My biggest question is how is hiro so sure of xat? He seems 1000% sure. I am thinking about this But nothing is coming to me right now that is really viable. So I trust hiro now obviously since we know he is town and he was dead set on xat and he was my top guy until late last night as well. I'm pretty much stuck on xat atm. I think the only information that can really be had from that is that if Hiro had protected Xatalos nothing happened. If Hiro had saved Xatalos he would have been fairly sure he was town (barring a vig shot which seems unlikely). | ||
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Scum #1: Xatalos I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow. Scum #2: Acrofales Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day. Scum #3 Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities. Dittert: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch. yomi: This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives. vonKlaust: This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3 Funcmode: It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment. Willz: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz Kharad: I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town. So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read): #1: Xatalos (90%) #2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not) #3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) | ||
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 18 2012 01:57 Acrofales wrote: Okay, I like that you're posting  If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point?At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum. Ignoring any connections. I'd say #2 is Dittert and #3 is Willz pretty much for the same reasons you are suspicious of them. Although this hits the same problem as the connection stuff. If my #1 scum read isn't scum it's not going to matter who I think is #2 because we would already have lost. | ||
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 18 2012 03:11 Acrofales wrote: No. This is not the same. This is your reads RIGHT NOW. You are suspicious of Xatalos, Dittert and Willz. That is good info to have. At the moment we have to lynch 1 scum. If we do that, THEN we can look at his connections. If we lynch Xatalos and he flips scum, then my defense of him was my second giant error of the game. But we make that connection when it happens. Keep an open mind for the moment and don't get stuck in what-if scenarios. Analyse the past, not the future. I am interested in knowing why you're suspicious of Dittert. I said I draw a blank on Dittert. I think it's quite probable that he's scum. He has not contributed anything to the town, except a stubborn insistence that Willz and Yomi are scum, without actually trying to convince town. I made a mistake reading Hiro's empty filter and strange hops of reasoning as a scum filter and refuse to make that same mistake: I am thus thoroughly confused by Dittert. My case for vig shooting him is far more pragmatic than that. Although, at the moment I am thinking Willz is scum again and would be happy to vote alongside "crazy ol' Dittert". So. Why the read as Dittert being scum? While I'm trying to coax people out of silence. Dittert, you updated your case on Willz at the start of D2 and I have not much to comment on that, but what do you think of Yomi now? Still scum? Or is someone else Willz' scumbuddy? Because he doesn't contribute much besides his constant insistence that Willz is scum. He started of being really meek and unsure of his ideas then Night 1 starts berating everyone for being idiots and did the same Night 2. This reeks of trying to make yourself seems pro town because you never voted for the townie that got lynched. His posting doesn't make much sense to me if he is town. | ||
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 18 2012 03:29 Acrofales wrote: Did HiroPro's posting make sense as a townie? No, but we can't just dismiss everyone's posting as "well they might just be playing town badly" or we get absolutely nowhere. | ||
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 18 2012 03:57 Acrofales wrote: Thank you. However, starting D3 with everybody voting Dittert, because he is a non-contributing lurker is going to kill discussion just as surely as it did on D2. I am completely in favour of Dittert getting shot, because he really isn't contributing and I realise that I was wrong yesterday in calling for the vig to hold his shot if he wasn't sure. Regardless of whether you're sure, discussing a Dittert lynch will kill discussion and we have no real clue whether we're right or wrong. The problem at lylo is that we NEED to lynch scum. All we know about Dittert is that he WILL behave erratically. I do NOT want to lynch erratic behaviour, I want to lynch scum. If we have a vig shot, Dittert needs to be killed. This will also give a crapton of info on Willz' alignment, who is currently skyrocketing my scumometer. I trust this town to continue without me, but it must NOT discuss a Dittert lynch, as it is pointless. So yeah: vig, if you exist, I urge you to shoot Dittert, regardless of alliance. If the vig is Dittert himself: shoot your strongest scumread (hint, Willz  ) and CLAIM the shot!Yeah I'm all for not discussing a Dittert lynch, it won't get us anywhere just like Day 2. It's why I was talking about Xatalos. I'm wondering why you think Willz is the more likely than Xatalos to be scum. I'm worried I'm tunnelling on Xatalos and would like to look at alternatives. | ||
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
Imallinson: I'm fine with him being suspicious about Xatalos, but his case against Acro and later me doesn't make much sense to me. This is not a list of Imallinsons top scum reads. This is a list of Imallinsons top scum reads IF Xatalos flips red. It would be nice if he could also provide us with a list of his top scum reads as the game looks at the moment. (I know he presented alternative percentages on me and Acro if Xatalos would flip green, but he also said that 33% is a null read and he put Acro on 33% and me on 40%, we would still be unlikely to be his mafia reads if Xatalos would flip green) Acrofales already asked me to provide my top 3 minus the connection to Xatalos. It was #1: Xatalos #2: Dittert #3: Willz Although at this point I'd probably swap Dittert and Willz. | ||
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
##Vote: Willz22912 | ||
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
There's a few things I'm not understanding about your claim. #1: Why check ArcticFox? At the end of Day 1 he seemed like one of the most town people. This could be an easy way of faking a claim, someone you know the alignment of and you didn't actually have to make a case on because they were already dead. #2: Why check Kharad? If you had narrowed it down to me, Kharad and vonKlaust it would make more sense to go for me or maybe vonKlaus, Kharad seems much more town than either of us. #3: "THE MAFIA DON'T NEED TO FAKE DT CLAIM TO WIN." This is just wrong. If it looked like one scum member was going to get lynched then fake claiming DT is an excellent move. If we have no DT then it's an easy way to lynch one of the best town players. If we do then you have a decent chance to convince the town to lynch their own DT. Seeing as Xatalos was suspicious of your claim right away I don't think he is your scum buddy. It fits nicely if Willz is however. #4: This is what I think is the most damning evidence against your claim. Why if you knew Kharad was scum would you vote for Xatalos? This makes me think you decided to fake claim after you saw Willz in trouble. There isn't any other explanation for this. I think this makes you look insanely scummy and it makes Willz look like your scum buddy. However you are the more obvious lynch at the moment. ##Unvote ##Vote: Dittert | ||
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 19 2012 17:33 Xatalos wrote: You bring up a lot of good points, imallinson. I don't really think you're Mafia anymore... Why would you bus both of your teammates this hard in that case? Right now my conclusion is this: A) Willz is certainly Mafia B) Dittert is certainly Mafia C) Funcmode is probably Mafia However, I'd rather lynch Willz before Dittert. Dittert's last post is pretty much him claiming Mafia, but Willz is hugely more nefarious and might even convince town to lynch someone else in the endgame situation. Dittert, on the other hand, just keeps digging his own grave by fake claiming to protect Willz. Well we probably need to come to a consensus on who to lynch and the terrible DT claim makes me more sure Dittert is scum than Willz. I'd say Dittert is 95% scum Willz 90%. So in my eyes we should go for Dittert. Also if we are sure Willz is scum it's easy enough to ignore his posts. | ||
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 20 2012 02:17 Dittert wrote: All right mafia team (I'm talking to you, KB, Xat and imallinson). Answer me this: If I'm mafia and trying to save Willz, why wouldn't I just step up and post a better case against Xatalos? Like I said before, with 2 choices on the block, the only reason for me to make this claim is if Willz and Xat are both mafia. Given Xat's reaction to my claim, I think that's highly unlikely. Also, that makes 3 votes on me now. Everyone else realize that if you vote for me before we have 4 votes on KB, we lose, as I'll be the first one to reach 4 in the event of a 4-4 tie. Because if you can convince us to lynch Kharad instead of Willz, then you are 4-3 going into the night. You have basically won at that point. It doesn't matter if everyone knows you fake claimed at that point because the game would already be done. Fake claiming gives you the most solid case you could possibly have. | ||
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
The problem I'm having with voting for Xatalos is that Dittert is my # 1 scum read due to what I think is a fake DT claim. You are my # 2 and Xatalos is # 3. While I agree that info tomorrow would be nice, actually getting there is better. | ||
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
##Unvote ##Vote: Xatalos Just some forwarning. I'm not going to be around if you decide to change. I've taken some strong painkillers and am now going to pass out. Sorry if this post is a bit short and incoherent. | ||
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
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