Newbie Mini Mafia VIII - Page 9

On April 19 2012 03:57 KharadBanar wrote:
Oh sorry. I was so occupied with putting my word out there that I didn't catch your post

It's pretty good, both contentwise and stylewise, but the last argument didn't really convince me. funcmode was probably in crunch mode and didn't think much about the posts he commented about when he wrote that. To draw a possible mafia connection there seems really arbitrary to me.

On April 19 2012 04:13 KharadBanar wrote:
I am going to wait to hear the other players' opinions until I make my final decision, since I a) don't want to influence the others too much while I'm not entirely sure what to do, and b) want to let their arguments influence my final decision, because it's final.

This may sound waffly and bandwagony, but there are reasons behind it.

On April 19 2012 07:57 willz22912 wrote:
I'm a bit baffled by some of your responses. Xatalos is ignoring my defense and the holes I put into his case, fine, we both think the other is Mafia, so we're going to ignore each other.

Others, I'm just having a hard time understanding what exactly you want from us. Do you want me to post my other scum reads besides Xatalos? I will and have done so in the past 24 hours, so what is the point? This is the last lynch we will get as town, if we mis-lynch we lose the game, we need to guarantee a lynch goes through on everyone we can agree is Mafia, either myself or Xatalos, there are no other candidates so asking for other reads seems pretty counter-intuitive unless you want to try a hand at connection play (which made Acro decide that Hiro was aligned with Dittert and imallinson and got him lynched.)

I'm also curious by the fact that none of you ever brought up the point I made about Xatalos mentioning a DT claim during the night and how even Acrofales thought that was a really dumb idea and anti-town. Why would any town think up that plan, why is everyone ignoring this, especially imallinson when he decided to vote me instead of Xatalos?

On April 19 2012 14:15 Dittert wrote:
Crazy Dittert here again...

I know you're probably used to ignoring this post, but if you're town DO NOT IGNORE THIS POST OR ELSE YOU WILL LIKELY LOSE.

To be fair, I think we've lost anyway, but following my advice is the only sure-fire way not to lose at the end of D3. For those of you unaware, if we mislynch, we automatically lose (ML makes it 4-3, N3 makes it 3-3 and then we are endgamed). Therefore, we must lynch someone we know 100% is mafia.

Fortunately, today we have someone who fits that description. I know this because I am Detective. The first night, I checked ArcticFox, and he came up town, but also dead. Last night, I checked KharadBanar and he came up not town. Therefore, we must lynch KharadBanar.

##Unvote: Xatalos
##Vote: KharadBanar

Here's my case:

I. On Being Detective

I know you might not believe that I am detective, as I have been what seems to be the worst player ever. Here's what I was thinking, however.

D1 I obviously have no information to go on, so I just make a case against Willz as best I can. My RNG proposal was just me being new. After reading through the filters and seeing the reactions, I believed our Mafia team was definitely Willz and Yomi and the third member was likely AFox. I was so confident about Willz and Yomi (overconfidence being one of many newb mistakes) that I checked AFox to confirm my suspicion of the third. I make an awkward attempt at breadcrumbing my investigation here (first letter of each paragraph bolded):



And here:



In that same post, I call out Xatalos on a "blueslip," which I think is a scumslip. He hints at being DT, and I try to get him to claim DT so that I know for sure he is mafia (since I am DT):



After D2, I was now uber-suspicious of Acro and Xato, mostly because Acro led the charge to switch the vote off Xato to HiroPro, who as we saw turned out to be doctor. I knew most people thought I was either scum or just terrible, so I decided to keep playing that card to keep myself alive:





I was antagonizing the town so the mafia would assume everyone else would stay suspicious of me. (My N1 rage post was completely sincere, and all that bad RL stuff really did happen to me. FMRL.) Since I thought Acro would be the only one game-savy enough to catch my breadcrumbing, and since I now strongly suspected he might be mafia, I thought he might shoot me. Hence this post:



I knew I'd flip DT when I died, and I didn't want people thinking I had investigated Willz on N1. I hadn't. My Willz case for D2 was still based solely on my reads.

II. On Investigating KB

Okay, so if you believe I'm DT, why the hell did I investigate KB, who everyone thought was 99% town?

Well, like the first night, I was convinced I had 2 of the 3 mafia figured out: Acro and Xat. Not only did they "save" Xat with the Hiro vote, but they were also spamming up the thread all N2. Once again, I went hunting for the third mafia member.

I dismissed Willz right away because he had a lot of heat on him from Acro, so I couldn't be sure the mafia wouldn't frame him (assuming we have a framer in the game).

With Willz out, I also dismissed Yomi, since most of my scum read on him came from his association (in my mind, at least) with Willz. Not 100% town, but not the most likely candidate either.

Funcmode seemed like a terrible choice, given that his filter was essentially empty. Figuring out that he was mafia wouldn't allow me to connect any dots, assuming either Acro or Xat turned up town down the road.

That left KharadBanar, vonKlaust, and iamallinson. To be honest, I wouldn't be 100% surprised if all three turned up as our mafia team. They haven't posted too much, but they also haven't really been accused on anything. Perhaps they've spent the whole game sitting back and allowing us townies to lynch each other. In the end, I just went on a hunch and investigated KharadBanar.

Given that basically everyone in town had him as their "99% town" read, it seems highly unlikely that the mafia felt the need to frame him, especially with so many other people in the middle of the discussion.

III. On Not Being Mafia Myself

How do you know I'm not mafia making a false DT claim? I guess technically you don't, and if you're not convinced yet, here's more reasoning:

THE MAFIA DON'T NEED TO FAKE DT CLAIM TO WIN.

4 votes will lynch somebody, and they have 3 votes. All they need is for one townie to be up for debate and they can gang up for the win. Since we already have Willz and Xat going at each other, it seems likely that at least one of them is town. Assuming both of them have at least one townie vote near the deadline tomorrow, we lose. The mafia will switch to the town member and they will win.

The only way this play makes even a little sense as mafia is if Willz and Xat are both scum as well and I'm trying to get them both off the chopping block. That doesn't make sense either, given the fact that:

1) I have been going after Willz aggressively the entire game. That's a pretty long con - all to set up this highly unlikely endgame scenario...?

2) Willz and Xat are going back and forth now, which would mean they're double bussing.

3) I was the first to vote for Xat on D3, meaning I'm bussing a teammate yet again.

4) If you don't believe me, isn't the person you're most likely to lynch me? In that case, we would still lose a mafia member. If you don't believe me and you don't lynch me, you're just not thinking clearly. I'm either right or mafia.

After we lynch KB, mafia will surely kill me N3, especially if KB is the framer. After that, it's basically a guessing game and an odds game. Best of luck to you.

I'll be around a bit Thursday morning to answer questions from non-confirmed mafia members, but once again I'll miss the vote due to work. Please don't screw this one up.

Vote KB or Bust!

On April 19 2012 17:23 imallinson wrote:
@Dittert

There's a few things I'm not understanding about your claim.

#1: Why check ArcticFox? At the end of Day 1 he seemed like one of the most town people. This could be an easy way of faking a claim, someone you know the alignment of and you didn't actually have to make a case on because they were already dead.

#2: Why check Kharad? If you had narrowed it down to me, Kharad and vonKlaust it would make more sense to go for me or maybe vonKlaus, Kharad seems much more town than either of us.

#3: "THE MAFIA DON'T NEED TO FAKE DT CLAIM TO WIN." This is just wrong. If it looked like one scum member was going to get lynched then fake claiming DT is an excellent move. If we have no DT then it's an easy way to lynch one of the best town players. If we do then you have a decent chance to convince the town to lynch their own DT. Seeing as Xatalos was suspicious of your claim right away I don't think he is your scum buddy. It fits nicely if Willz is however.

#4: This is what I think is the most damning evidence against your claim. Why if you knew Kharad was scum would you vote for Xatalos? This makes me think you decided to fake claim after you saw Willz in trouble. There isn't any other explanation for this.

I think this makes you look insanely scummy and it makes Willz look like your scum buddy. However you are the more obvious lynch at the moment.

##Unvote
##Vote: Dittert

On April 19 2012 17:42 imallinson wrote:


Well we probably need to come to a consensus on who to lynch and the terrible DT claim makes me more sure Dittert is scum than Willz. I'd say Dittert is 95% scum Willz 90%. So in my eyes we should go for Dittert. Also if we are sure Willz is scum it's easy enough to ignore his posts.

On April 19 2012 23:29 Dittert wrote:
Okay, so what we've learned so far:

1) iamallinson and Xat are either the last 2 mafia OR too poor of logicians to help us in the endgame anyway.

iamallinson does make at least one point though. Why did I vote Xatalos if I know KB is mafia? I'm not sure if that was the right play or not, but I needed to get discussion going on someone other than Willz, if only so the town could see people's D3 reactions. I was afraid everyone would think "Acro thought Willz was the most likely scum player, and Acro was the best town player, so let's just lynch Willz and be done with it." Willz making a case back against Xat could just be seen as him trying to save himself or OMGUS.

I wanted to make a case against KB without DT claiming, but that's really hard to do from his filter. Not because he's so pro-town, but rather because his filter is so empty. Sure, he's got 4 pages of posts, but a lot of them are things like "lol, ninja'd." His voting record consists of almost entirely bandwagon votes on townies, but that doesn't look so out of place in this game - especially since most everyone else jumped on the bandwagon D1 and D2 as well.

On April 20 2012 01:59 KharadBanar wrote:
OK look.
So I went to bed yesterday thinking about how we, as a town, can decide whether to vote for willz or Xatalos. I slept, woke up today and went to the university. After a long day I come home and read through the thread and.... what? WHAT?
WHY ON EARTH is someone fakeclaiming cop to paint me scum?
Why on earth is someone fakeclaiming cop to paint ME scum, out of all people? Dittert is Dittert after all, but why ME and not someone more believable like imallinson? Or Xatalos?How could any self-respecting townie ever be convinced of "figuring Acrofales out"? This sounds like pretty bad invented reasoning to come up with some alleged "scum reads".
So of all the people to investigate (apart from Acrofales, who you were "convinced" he was scum), you picked the most townie looking to test if he's scum?
Excuse me, but that sounds like a genuinely stupid move. It just does not make any sense. Coming from a generally underperforming player, your posts sound like a straight scum claim.

At least if you wanted to distract town from meaningful discussion, you managed it. I'll give you that.

##Vote: Dittert

On April 20 2012 02:17 Dittert wrote:
All right mafia team (I'm talking to you, KB, Xat and imallinson). Answer me this:

If I'm mafia and trying to save Willz, why wouldn't I just step up and post a better case against Xatalos? Like I said before, with 2 choices on the block, the only reason for me to make this claim is if Willz and Xat are both mafia. Given Xat's reaction to my claim, I think that's highly unlikely.

Also, that makes 3 votes on me now. Everyone else realize that if you vote for me before we have 4 votes on KB, we lose, as I'll be the first one to reach 4 in the event of a 4-4 tie.

On April 20 2012 02:30 funcmode wrote:

I don't want to spend any significant amount of time arguing my defense today, as we have far more pressing issues. Given than I'm not exactly at the centre of attention, it would be a waste of time and resources given how important today is. I'll simply reiterate my previous post regarding my defense of Willz;



(Pay attention to the bold bit)

I'm still trying to determine what I really think about this DT claim, it's certainly very suspect and one could argue shouldn't be trusted simply because of the current state of the game. The lack of activity from vonK and Yomi is also especially troubling. I'm going to ponder further and go back through some filters to try and come up with any kind of real conclusion. (And Xatalos, before you beat me to it, I know this will probably register with you as another "nothing" post in an attempt to remain under the radar - rather I'd prefer to not jump in and make any hasty conclusions, this has only proven to be a bad idea. As a townie, the more you throw me into your case makes it harder for me to believe in it).

On April 20 2012 02:48 willz22912 wrote:
Well, this is amusing. It's probably too late for town now, but here are my thoughts on these latest antics.

The Mafia team is probably Dittert, Xatalos, imallinson They know this mis-lynch is the last one they need to perform, so they are going all out to cause confusion, notice how 4 people (Yomi, KharadBanar, vonKlaust, funcmode) haven't yet voted and we have 6 hours till deadline. Then all this confusion conveniently before the last major vote by town? Yeah I'm not buying it and neither should you.

Dittert claiming DT, now of all moments when the vote should have been between Xatalos or myself? Causing confusion, now he's creating a new lynch candidate with his trumped up case against KharadBanar. His DT checks also make no sense combined with his tunneling of me, why not check me D1 and then make your case against me D2 to get rid of me if you find me suspicious and you're the DT? Why check Arctic of all people (and breadcrumb) and then KharadBanar, this logic makes no sense. The explanation in my mind is that Dittert is Mafia and knows they were going to kill Arctic all along N1, and breadcrumbed that to throw everyone off and give weight to this later DT claim. Also notice this post by him:
[red]There is no guarantee that Mafia won't change votes at the last minute if 1 town falls for it and votes for KharadBanar, just like what Dittert is saying, to force the mis-lynch and win the game. Also tunneling me this long is good to look "newbie" and also create a link between myself and Dittert in everyone's mind, distracting people from looking at other possible scum (I've helped this a lot with my assertion that Dittert has been newb town all along, well either he's the most amazing newbie ever with the worst DT logic that knows how to breadcrumb, or the reality that I now see, he really is Mafia)

Xatalos is scum because he has gone out of his way to vote me D3 (as he should, since we're the two likely candidates) but happens to conveniently switch to Dittert because imallinson convinced him to even though he made this post just before?





Note the second post, even if the vote goes through on Dittert and he flips red, Xatalos conveniently leaves this post to further incriminate me so that I will be lynched even if this plan doesn't work, really good thinking by a Mafia to do. Why would town set someone else up to be the next lynch just based on connection play? I believe this is a bus attempt by Xatalos and imallinson to both gain credit from Dittert's flip as well as to further set up my mis-lynch the following day. I do not believe these votes on Dittert will stick if they get lucky and one town votes for another town inadvertently.

imallinson I'm not as confident as I am in this read because it's mostly based on connection play between him and Xatalos and his interactions with Dittert. I remember him subtly trying to support Xatalos early on against Arctic and then sheeped both the vote on Dittert, the vote on Xatalos, and the vote on Hiro D3 without any substantiation. His latest antics here make no sense from a town POV. Town doesn't know exactly who's Mafia or who's town, they can only use connection play after someone has already flipped to justify their case, going 1 by one. However imallinson posts this:


So because Xatalos is around and active, and posts faster than I am that he's suspicious of Dittert's DT claim, imallinson dismisses the possibility that Dittert and Xatalos are connected? How does that work when you were talking during the night and post this:



imallinson says Xatalos, Dittert, and myself are his top scum reads. However he decides to vote me instead of Xatalos D3 with no weight to his opinion, but when Dittert makes his fake DT case, he assumes it's to only save his teammate Willz, and ignores Xatalos completely? Why would you as town ignore any possibility? Here is my point: imallinson was suspicious of Xatalos, but because Xatalos didn't believe in Dittert's fakeclaim, he finds that not suspicious and thinks I'm more likely to be Mafia in association No town should be convinced that easily, if a town's had consistent suspicions of someone, he is not likely to have them go away so suddenly, this is why I believed Dittert to be town, because he was at least consistent in tunneling me, contrast that with Xatalos' behavior, he has called out numerous people and is all over the place with his suspicions until finally he settles on me, but now this latest move by Dittert convinces both Xatalos and imallinson to switch off their initial vote candidate willz22912 to kill Dittert instead? Why aren't they just ignoring the fake DT claim because they don't believe it and continuing to vote me? Didn't Xatalos say I was the most dangerous Mafia here:

And here:

And here:
Also note the highlighted part in red for this quote, considering I believe the Mafia team to be imallinson, Xatalos, Dittert This is exactly what they are doing, bussing Dittert in order to look Xatalos and imallinson look better.

Also notice the three times Xatalos has believed me to be more of a danger than anyone else, and should be lynched first, but now he's willing to lynch Dittert because he fake-claimed DT? Why shouldn't I still be the lynch target? If I flip red like imallinson and Xatalos thinks, that gives more weight to Dittert being Mafia as well, not the other way around, especially since I'm the more dangerous Mafia no? All this is doing is discrediting me further, but not actually lynching me, this makes no sense from a town perspective. If you think a player is Mafia, you try and lynch them, not save them for later.

On April 20 2012 03:03 willz22912 wrote:
@ Xatalos

Why not lynch me now? You think we're both Mafia anyway, what's the difference or problem? (Is it because you can't convince other town to follow through now, but you can when you bus your teammate, since I've already associated myself with Dittert so strongly?)

On April 20 2012 03:12 vonKlaust wrote:
I'm sorry again that I haven't been active! The reason is as I said that I'm working and studying for an exam. I just got home from work, and all this is very exciting.

There is one thing that make me think that Dittert isn't necessary lying. Let's assume that Dittert is mafia and have been thinking about how to make this fake DT claim. It would make muuuuch more sense for him to claim that I was his mafia claim. I have been AFK alot, and when I have had time to write in the thread I haven't really contributed. This would first of all make me look more suspicious and it would be easier to get town to jump on my lynch, and it would be easier to win an argument with me since I don't have much case to make a strong defense or a counter case(not necessarily against Dittert).

Instead of going for the easy target, he went for the one that is pretty much a 90% town read by everyone. This does not make sense at all. Sure, you could argue that he would do this to psyche us and that we would see through his bluff if he did this. But I don't agree that that is likely. Even if he wouldn't pick me as his target, he could at least have picked Xatalos or Imallinson(which as far as I'm aware have been the last ones to recieve accusations). If he is mafia, picking KB as his mafia claim would pretty much be retarded. Also, if he did pick an easier target I'm not sure at all that we would take note of that as anything suspicious.

I agree with Ditterts' argument that it wouldn't make much sense for mafia to fake claim DT right now. So far, this game has gone 100% in mafias favour. Because of this, taking the risk of a fake DT claim would probably not be worth it in my opinion. Sure, they could potentially end the game right now, but as Day[9] would tell you it would probably be better to use your lead to try to come even more ahead rather than taking a huge risk and try to end it right away. It seems that you guys are 100% sure that we would lynch a mafia if they don't do a desperate move like this.
1. I don't agree that is true. I'm still not sure who I'll vote for tonight.
2. Even if that would be true, it's still very doubtful if it would be worth it to stick your neck out the way Dittert have.

I'll get back to you on my thoughts on Willz later.

On April 20 2012 03:29 vonKlaust wrote:


Ooooh, this is very interesting to me. This could defenitly be a scumslip. This piece of statistics is correct, assuming you know that he is town. If you don't know that he is town, the chances of him being DT is 1/7.