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I'm not really sure what to think of your case against me, HiroPro. Earlier KharadBanar made a weak case against me, which he admitted was weak, yet you make another weak case against me and then vote based on it... I can't see a sensible motivation for this no matter your alignment. Do you really think I'm the most suspicious player around or are you just trying to create chaos or something? Because no matter how I look at it, I have been the most contributive and aggressive Mafia-hunter so far.
Let's see how your logic fails:
On April 13 2012 01:16 HiroPro wrote:
I don't like this case at all. You start off by saying ArticFox's posting reminds you of your own posting as mafia in AGOT - this has no relevance at all; ArticFox isn't you - meta from another game with someone else playing is an awful reason to think someone is mafia. And policy discussion that early on with very few people online is perfectly normal.
You discredit my case just by saying that a metagame argument is bad. That's definitely false, since metagame is an important part of this game - but metagame is simply a part of my case, not even the most important part of it. I understand that a townie MIGHT play like I would play as Mafia, but it's much more likely that Mafia would play like I would play as Mafia. Understand this point? And more importantly: the several potential Mafia slips from ArcticFox are not condemning seperately, but when combined, they definitely don't paint a good picture of him.
On April 13 2012 01:16 HiroPro wrote:
Why the sudden shift in tone? A few posts ago, you were 70 or 80 percent sure that ArticFox is mafia, in this same post you say that either yomi or Dittert is mafia, and yet at the same time you have a hard time figuring out who mafia is?
You sound like a mafia member getting a bandwagon rolling and then jumping off before it crashes.
##Vote: Xatalos
I never said I have a hard time figuring out the Mafia. I only said I have a hard time figuring out the COMPLETE Mafia team, since many of my Mafia suspects are pushing (or at least fake pushing) for each others' lynching.
When was I trying to "jump off a bandwagon"? It would be foolish to say ArcticFox is 100% Mafia, since there's no way to know that. I'm just saying he is my best Mafia read at the moment, followed by yomi and Dittert. I'm searching for material to make a second strong case from, but at the moment I'm not ready to push strongly for someone else than ArcticFox. Right now I want to hear more from you (HiroPro), willz22912 and Acrofales to improve my reads. You three have been at least semi-lurking so far...
(I also want to correct one misconception about my wording. When I say someone is 50% suspicious, I think it's 50/50 (even) if he is town or Mafia. When I say someone is 70-80% suspicious, I think he is pretty likely to be Mafia. When I say someone is 95% suspicious, I think he's almost quaranteed to be Mafia.)
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On April 13 2012 02:44 willz22912 wrote:
Terrible case on Arcticfox. You're willing to lynch someone 7 hours into the game based on your experiences of how you played Mafia in the GoT game? I looked through your filter, even you stated yourself that it felt too easy as Mafia to hide because you never drew attention to yourself. I also recognize that Acrofales was your scum buddy that game and your Mafia plan was to rely on his "noobiness" to let him get away with his opening post (but it almost got him lynched)
Your entire reasoning behind attacking him was that he mentioned blue roles a few times and he was in favor of policy lynches, something that you said you did "as Mafia." So basically if someone said something that you would do, you would assume that is suspicious even though you mostly coasted in GoT, you didn't lead the town towards a mis-lynch or towards wrong lines of thinking. Don't project your experience from GoT in here with that little reasoning, you're creating a bandwagon and getting everyone to agree with you based on terrible logic.
Talking about policy lynches or blue roles isn't Mafia-like only because of my metagame experiences - it's universally not something town SHOULD be doing. I understand a new townie might not understand that, but you can't just let it slide based on "noob town". ArcticFox might just be a noob townie, but I haven't seen a better case against anyone else. What about you? Who do you think is Mafia and why?
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On April 13 2012 02:48 willz22912 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 17:14 Xatalos wrote:On April 12 2012 16:54 imallinson wrote:
@ Xatalos
I didn't mention blue reads at all. I said lurker lynches can get a blue who is trying to hide in the shadows. I never mentioned anyone I thought was blue or how we would figure a blue out. You seem to be looking so hard for slip ups you are making some yourself. Nevertheless, you were THINKING about blue tells as you considered lynching lurkers = possibly killing blues. It's not a reason enough to lynch you yet, but if I had to choose between you or anyone else outside of ArcticFox, Dittert and yomi, I would choose to vote for you. And you seem to forget that blue players very rarely are lurkers: mostly they try to act like vanilla townies and be at least somewhat active. Being a lurker or semi-lurker means a higher chance of Mafia, since it's against Mafia's win condition to contribute. Besides, I found your hesitation and wishy-washiness more condemning than your comment about lurkers = blues. Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 19:03 Xatalos wrote:On April 12 2012 18:54 imallinson wrote:@ Xatalos I've had a good read through your argument against ArcticFox and haven't found any major holes in your logic there. I think that the talking about blues is less important than the stuff he says about policy lynches (although it definitely doesn't help his case). He seems to say that he doesn't want a policy lynch but keeps suggesting various policy lynches: On April 12 2012 10:28 ArcticFox wrote:
I would prefer not to have to policy lynch at all, but liars and lurkers is a good place to start. On April 12 2012 08:34 ArcticFox wrote:
I'm all for lynching liars above all else. On April 12 2012 10:08 ArcticFox wrote: I'm interested in your thoughts on our policy discussions and such so far. I'd like to see him put up some defence of your accusations. As for Dittert I still can't figure out whether he is just being a newb town or is trying to distract us as scum. He hasn't posted a proper defence yet. "I'm a newb, please don't lynch me" doesn't count Hmm, good answer. Your suspiciousness dropped a bit in my eyes. I want to see ArcticFox, Dittert, yomi and KharadBanar respond yet. You had suspicions in allinson, and then when he blindly followed your bandwagon you're okay with it and it drops your suspicion? I've played town every single time I've played mafia and it's always the bandwagoners that are suspicious. So quick to support you and you return the favor? No. Not this early, not without any credibilty earned.
Think about that a bit more closely. Why would Mafia want to lead the pressure visibly when they could just sit in the shadows and carefully manipulate the general opinion? That's what I did when I was Mafia. Also, I only had a slight suspicion of imallinson, and he made good comments on ArcticFox and Dittert, so I didn't see the point in pushing him for now.
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On April 13 2012 02:59 Acrofales wrote:Wow. I go climbing the afternoon and people start accusing eachother left right and center. Going through it semi-chronologically. I like ArcticFox's response to the case, which I thought was a trumped up load of poppycock. I just wanted to see Arctic's reply, because I had a null read on him and seeing him post in response was good. While scrolling to the end of this, I see Willz has pretty much destroyed the case already: the main problem with the case is that it is completely false meta. You are not ArcticFox and he is not you. Additionally I didn't find his references to blues in any way shape or form a way of fishing for blues. However, it was interesting to see his response. ArcticFox has acted townie so far. Something that I cannot possibly say about Dittert and while quite a few people are suspicious of him, I cannot understand why people have not jumped on his latest shitty post. + Show Spoiler [Dittert's absurd accusations] +On April 12 2012 23:53 Dittert wrote:@Xatalos I think you have a decent case against ArcticFox, and I would feel comfortable voting for him Day 1 (as things stand right now). That being said, I am actually even more suspicious of willz22912. He's lurking now (or sleeping, or at work) after posting a decent number of posts in the first 2 hours of the game. In those posts, he says a couple of things that catch my attention. First, Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 09:05 willz22912 wrote:
Lynch all liars is dumb, don't dwell on that.. How does that not scream scum? It's not just that he doesn't want a Lynch all Liars policy (which would in theory encourage, or at least allow for, lying), but he dismisses it out of hand. "Don't dwell on liars" is exactly the kind of thing scum would say. Second, we have this gem: Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote:
If the rest of you are going to let that comment by Dittert slide, I'm going to be unhappy. That comment was 100% useless and even if he is town I'm willing to sacrifice him to weed out the real scum. Town willing to kill other town? Even a bad townie (or a townie with a bad idea) is still a townie. It seems to me that this is a numbers game, and you should want as many people on your team alive as possible. I think willz22912 saw my bad RNG play as an opportunity to get the town to lynch one of their own, hence all the commotion about it. That ArcticFox immediately joined willz makes me even more suspicious of him (him being AF). LaL IS a dumb policy and Willz pointing it out is good. Your RNG policy was dumb, and pointing that was good too. The butthurt OMGUS you're pulling here is pretty damned terrible. This is not a case against Willz, it's a half-arsed attempt to get out from under the pressure. I know I asked for reads... I just didn't know they'd be this bad. Dittert, please give me your opinion of Xatalos... more on him in a later post. Btw, to get things straight: we should absolutely be on the lookout for lies, but policy lynching them is absurd. If you catch someone lying, by all means jump on it, but lies go in the box with the rest of the evidence. They are not the be-all end-all and I can reference 2 games off the top of my head, where town lies served a purpose. ##FoS: DittertSo far Dittert. I will go through the rest of this random-accusation-town right now.
I agree with you that the response from ArcticFox was good. It still doesn't mean he is town. You, like Willz, fail to see that metagame was only the starting point of my case, not the "meat" of it. The major part of my case was his flow of useless posts about policies and blues, neither related to Mafia-hunt but easy to talk about for Mafia (without giving town any new information). However, by no means is ArcticFox a "must-lynch" for me - just that he is my preference at the moment.
Also, you have to admit my case on ArcticFox has generated a lot of useful discussion and possible Mafia slips (we can't know them all yet, as some of them will become more clear once some player's alignments are revealed). I'm all for pushing another lynch target, since everyone voting for ArcticFox would make it too easy for Mafia to blend in. Seeing players' reactions to different lynch pushes will be very helpful.
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On April 13 2012 03:23 willz22912 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 02:51 Xatalos wrote:On April 13 2012 02:44 willz22912 wrote:
Terrible case on Arcticfox. You're willing to lynch someone 7 hours into the game based on your experiences of how you played Mafia in the GoT game? I looked through your filter, even you stated yourself that it felt too easy as Mafia to hide because you never drew attention to yourself. I also recognize that Acrofales was your scum buddy that game and your Mafia plan was to rely on his "noobiness" to let him get away with his opening post (but it almost got him lynched)
Your entire reasoning behind attacking him was that he mentioned blue roles a few times and he was in favor of policy lynches, something that you said you did "as Mafia." So basically if someone said something that you would do, you would assume that is suspicious even though you mostly coasted in GoT, you didn't lead the town towards a mis-lynch or towards wrong lines of thinking. Don't project your experience from GoT in here with that little reasoning, you're creating a bandwagon and getting everyone to agree with you based on terrible logic. Talking about policy lynches or blue roles isn't Mafia-like only because of my metagame experiences - it's universally not something town SHOULD be doing. I understand a new townie might not understand that, but you can't just let it slide based on "noob town". ArcticFox might just be a noob townie, but I haven't seen a better case against anyone else. What about you? Who do you think is Mafia and why? I'm leaning strongly towards imallinson at this point because he hasn't posted anything unique for himself, he's been hiding behind supporting your case against Arcticfox. Other reads I have now I am not willing to divulge at this point so they don't get defensive early, I'm curious to see how some of my suspects proceed as we still have 29 hours to go till deadline. I'll post a case on my vote target after I collect more evidence. The other suspicious person that everyone seems to agree on is Dittert, and I view him as simply a newb town and harmless. I'm taking note of the people so ready to jump on an easy target, being suspicious in itself should not be grounds for a lynch without decent evidence of malicious wrongdoing. I mis-lynched someone in Newbie V because he was "suspicious" and that was it, it was a mis-lynch and helped us lose the game because the other viable lynch was a real Mafia. I have learned from that and now I do not blindly agree with any lynches based on suspicion.
Hmm. You have a good point about imallinson. I don't think he is a bad lynch target, and I'll wait with interest to see your actual case. However, since you mentioned metagame, allow me to say something about it too. In my previous game, where I was Mafia, the first two "bandwagons" (Acrofales and gumshoe) were actually real Mafia players. I don't think it's unlikely that either ArcticFox or Dittert (our two easy "bandwagons") would be Mafia, as well. And it's perfectly fine to put the pressure on them, not only to make them uncomfortable, but also to hopefully get some Mafia slips from other Mafia players. It's better to start pressure early than to talk about policies or roles all day and then make a hasty decision without good material.
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On April 13 2012 03:08 willz22912 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 02:58 Xatalos wrote:On April 13 2012 02:48 willz22912 wrote:On April 12 2012 17:14 Xatalos wrote:On April 12 2012 16:54 imallinson wrote:
@ Xatalos
I didn't mention blue reads at all. I said lurker lynches can get a blue who is trying to hide in the shadows. I never mentioned anyone I thought was blue or how we would figure a blue out. You seem to be looking so hard for slip ups you are making some yourself. Nevertheless, you were THINKING about blue tells as you considered lynching lurkers = possibly killing blues. It's not a reason enough to lynch you yet, but if I had to choose between you or anyone else outside of ArcticFox, Dittert and yomi, I would choose to vote for you. And you seem to forget that blue players very rarely are lurkers: mostly they try to act like vanilla townies and be at least somewhat active. Being a lurker or semi-lurker means a higher chance of Mafia, since it's against Mafia's win condition to contribute. Besides, I found your hesitation and wishy-washiness more condemning than your comment about lurkers = blues. On April 12 2012 19:03 Xatalos wrote:On April 12 2012 18:54 imallinson wrote:@ Xatalos I've had a good read through your argument against ArcticFox and haven't found any major holes in your logic there. I think that the talking about blues is less important than the stuff he says about policy lynches (although it definitely doesn't help his case). He seems to say that he doesn't want a policy lynch but keeps suggesting various policy lynches: On April 12 2012 10:28 ArcticFox wrote:
I would prefer not to have to policy lynch at all, but liars and lurkers is a good place to start. On April 12 2012 08:34 ArcticFox wrote:
I'm all for lynching liars above all else. On April 12 2012 10:08 ArcticFox wrote: I'm interested in your thoughts on our policy discussions and such so far. I'd like to see him put up some defence of your accusations. As for Dittert I still can't figure out whether he is just being a newb town or is trying to distract us as scum. He hasn't posted a proper defence yet. "I'm a newb, please don't lynch me" doesn't count Hmm, good answer. Your suspiciousness dropped a bit in my eyes. I want to see ArcticFox, Dittert, yomi and KharadBanar respond yet. You had suspicions in allinson, and then when he blindly followed your bandwagon you're okay with it and it drops your suspicion? I've played town every single time I've played mafia and it's always the bandwagoners that are suspicious. So quick to support you and you return the favor? No. Not this early, not without any credibilty earned. Think about that a bit more closely. Why would Mafia want to lead the pressure visibly when they could just sit in the shadows and carefully manipulate the general opinion? That's what I did when I was Mafia. Also, I only had a slight suspicion of imallinson, and he made good comments on ArcticFox and Dittert, so I didn't see the point in pushing him for now. Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 16:17 Xatalos wrote:On April 12 2012 15:44 imallinson wrote:
/confirm
Hello all just woke up and read through the thread so far.
I'm kind of worried that a load of time was wasted discussing RNG votes. It seems a bit like Dittert was sending us down a bad path. I'm not sure if that's due to scummyness or newbness but it's definitely something to watch out for.
As for Kharad's pressure vote on Hiro it makes sense if he is trying to get a read on him based on info from a previous game. I'm guessing he isn't that suspicious of him after his answer due to the unvote.
Finally on lurker votes I'll reiterate what I said in my last game that lurker votes should be a last resort because you have a fair chance of lynching a blue that is hiding in the shadows. This post is something to keep in mind going forward. It's full of hesitation and indecisive comments... And he even starts talking about blue reads, just like ArcticFox. Perhaps he and ArcticFox have been talking about their blue reads in Mafia chat and slipped that discussion over to this thread? People I'm fine with lynching right now: ArcticFox, Dittert, yomi, imallinson. I'm pretty sure at least 1-2 of these players are Mafia. If you four want to clear yourselves in my eyes, something major needs to happen. I suggest everyone to read my case on ArcticFox and vote for him. I'd put his chances of being Mafia at 70-80%, which is extremely high for me considering it's this early. I also want to see his response, though, but I don't know what would convince me otherwise at this point (I guess an EVEN stronger Mafia read on someone else, which isn't an easy feat to achieve!). This is your first post on imallinson, you call this not suspecting him highly? You claim that he made good points on Arcticfox and Dittert. Arcticfox is the case you're trying to push. Dittert is easily regarded as suspicious for his poor rng proposal. So he gets away by agreeing with you on one case and following others thoughts on another? Yeah that's trying to blend in. If you bandwagon onto someone else's case and vote accordingly, you better have a good reason with your own opinions, otherwise that just lets mafia jump on the easiest mis-lynch case and defend themselves with "but Xatalos thought he was Mafia, and I believe in Xatalos, so thats why I voted this [innocent townie]!" If you convince enough people to help you lynch Arcticfox because this is plurality vote, and he flips town, I'm going after you and whoever voted along with you without any good reason.
He didn't only agree with me, he posted some additional potentially suspicious quotes from ArcticFox. That's why I didn't focus on him at that point... Mafia usually jump in sheepishly to vote once a very easy lynch target has been found, not as early as he did. Still, he hasn't done much else for this thread, and I'm watching him closely.
That's the risk I'll have to take. However, nobody was really pressuring anyone when I woke up and read the thread, so I figured I had to make the first move. There's no certainty that ArcticFox is Mafia, but given the information I have, I don't mind lynching him at the moment.
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On April 13 2012 03:41 imallinson wrote:
EBWOP: I think I've said all I want on Arctic at the moment. He definitely has gone some way to alleviating my suspicions of him. I'm going to read through some of the more lurky players filters to see if there is anything suspicious there beyond them not posting.
Hmm.. I'll definitely want to hear your opinions on other players than ArcticFox or Dittert. Willz was right in that you didn't really push anything of your own, but rather followed behind. That doesn't look good in my eyes. Also, I wonder about your fast change of heart earlier - your first reaction was to label me as a possible Mafia for suspecting you (OMGUS reaction) and right after that you started agreeing with me on everything. How does that work?
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HiroPro, you really need to post more. Right now you're just a huge question mark to me, which is worse than if I had at least a neutral read on you. Your case against me also seems pretty half-hearted at best... I can't say if you're serious or just making a weak fake pressure. In any case, your play so far has been anti-town and unproductive. I just need to see something more from you before coming to conclusions.
I went through every player's filters and rearranged my preferences for lynching. At the moment I'm willing to unvote ArcticFox and see more from him before a lynch. There are a couple of reasons for this:
A) His later posts have actually been useful and contributive.
B) I must admit my original case on him wasn't as strong as I first thought it was... It lacked sufficient cold facts (except the policy lynch talk) and was more based on intuition than logic. Still, I don't regret voting for him, as this case pushed the discussion forward and revealed a lot of opinions. I'm not saying it was just a calculated pressure, but partly so.
C) Some of the most pro-town players, in my opinion, have also defended him (such as Acrofales and Willz).
So, who to vote for if not ArcticFox? I agree with BroodKing's case on vonKlaust and imallinson's case on trumpetarn. Either of them would be good lynches. Acrofales made a good case against Dittert and yomi, and I'd be willing to lynch either of them, but neither of them has posted much yet (same as HiroPro).
Right now I'm leaning the most towards vonKlaust. Here are the parts of his posts I'm most suspicious about:
On April 12 2012 21:36 vonKlaust wrote:
Ok, I must disappointedly admit that I feel pretty lost. So far I think most cases have felt a bit rushed, but I guess that could be because I'm simply not used to this kind of speculative reasoning. I do however think that Xatalos case on ArticFox seems to carry some truth. If I would have to vote right now, I would probably go with this.
Both the blue-talk and the policy lynching-talk seems a bit odd. I guess you could agrue that ArticFox could be blue himself, but it doesn't strike me as very natural behaviour to talk so much about blues if you are one yourself since you would desperately want to stay hidden. I'm not quite as confident about this as Xatalos seems to be, but to me this seems to be the best analysis so far.
This post is just... Very indecisive and unproductive. He tries to ride on his own newbieness/confusion without providing anything other than vague or pointless remarks. What is that part about ArcticFox's possible blue role even supposed to mean? Could it be that same Mafia slip I thought I already saw in ArcticFox's posts?
On April 12 2012 23:24 vonKlaust wrote:
Well, I AM confused. And I can agree that I come across as somebody who doesn't take solid stances. I don't know alot about this game, and I try to be humble to that fact. I say what I think, but you're likely not gonna see me write something like "I am perfectly comfident this is how we should play this game" or "I know for a fact that X is scum". That's just not how my brain works.
Again he is trying to hide behind his confusion/newbieness. I find it suspicious how he keeps repeating how confused he is. Even if you are truly confused, why spend your energy explaining to others that you are a useless and confused townie?
On April 13 2012 05:43 vonKlaust wrote:
I still have a feeling that Dittert is just a confused townie. I think the whole RNG-thing have been blown out of proportions and I think his weak case against Willz might have been rushed since he felt pressured to contribute to the scumhunt.
I'm unsure about Xatalos. While he have done a couple of potential scumslips he feels a tad to vocal for a mafia member. And those slips can just have been the result of bad reasoning, even though I doubt it.
HiroPro also comes across as a bit suspiscious. The way he has just popped in a couple of times. Both of the times short after someone called him out as lurking. It makes me feel he is actively lurking.
I would like HiroPro to write more, but for now I think I'll go with Xatalos as my prime suspect.
That comment about Dittert being a "confused townie" adds fuel to the fire that you attempting to make "being confused" a state where everything is forgiven - there should never be free passes for being confused/newb, not for you, not for Dittert. I also have to wonder how I am now your "prime suspect", although earlier you jumped eagerly on my case against ArcticFox. You also mentioned ONLY me as your suspect, for some reason. I want to hear some reasonable excuse for this. Am I truly the biggest/only Mafia read you have so far for making a slightly faulty case to get things going?
##Unvote
##Vote: vonKlaust
I also definitely want HiroPro, Dittert, yomi and trumpetarn to post more. If you are town, there is nothing to lose by being active, and everything to lose by being inactive.
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Just my luck... Right as I post, HiroPro decides to suddenly post. Well, what do you think about my latest post, HiroPro? Am I still your only Mafia read?
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I'm now finally going to sleep, so good night and have a constructive discussion. I want to hear vonKlaust's response to the case against him by me and HiroPro. Also, I hope Dittert, yomi and trumpetarm allow themselves to appear and post at some point... Right now those three are the biggest lurkers. I want you all to tell your Mafia reads or, better yet, make a real case against somebody.
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vonKlaust, I want to hear why I'm your biggest Mafia read at the moment. So far you've only said that you're "unsure" about me, and that the flaws in my ArcticFox case could have been just "bad reasoning", yet I'm the most likely person to be Mafia? You have never actually made a case against me or said anything definite about me, except that I'm your main Mafia read (without any real reasoning). For now, I'm keeping my vote on you, but you can try to convince me otherwise.
trumpetarn, you HAVE to post something. I have a feeling Mafia wouldn't lurk so hardcore (big risk of policy lynch or Vigi shoot), but that's just WIFOM, and you might actually only want us to think like that. Even if you are town, you are completely useless right now. I don't have any clear read on you, except that you are a detriment to us with your playstyle. Please step up your game or stop playing forum Mafia.
HiroPro, I'm a bit suspicious of your (apparently) careless reasoning for wanting to lynch vonKlaust. Was your reasoning really based on misread time stamps? I find it hard to believe you would accidentally misread his filter so badly and then decide he should be lynched. Also, you haven't done yet anything outside of tunneling against me and vonKlaust. I want to hear your top Mafia reads and a convincing case of your own, not just jumping on someone else's bandwagon with weak reasoning.
imallinson, I noticed a couple of suspicious things about your filter. First of all, this:
On April 13 2012 04:18 imallinson wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 03:52 Xatalos wrote:On April 13 2012 03:41 imallinson wrote:
EBWOP: I think I've said all I want on Arctic at the moment. He definitely has gone some way to alleviating my suspicions of him. I'm going to read through some of the more lurky players filters to see if there is anything suspicious there beyond them not posting. Hmm.. I'll definitely want to hear your opinions on other players than ArcticFox or Dittert. Willz was right in that you didn't really push anything of your own, but rather followed behind. That doesn't look good in my eyes. Also, I wonder about your fast change of heart earlier - your first reaction was to label me as a possible Mafia for suspecting you (OMGUS reaction) and right after that you started agreeing with me on everything. How does that work? I never thought you were mafia and wasn't trying to label you as such. I was just pointing out that what you had said about me wasn't quite accurate. Also this was before you had posted your suspicions on Arctic. You posting those suspicions definitely reinforced you as being probably town in my head.
This post is an almost complete lie. If you look at my filter, I made my case against ArcticFox FIRST and only noticed your (suspicious) post after that. So your reasoning for first saying I'm Mafia and then backing off is extremely questionable, based on this post at least. And you say you never suspected me to begin with? Then what was this post all about:
On April 12 2012 16:54 imallinson wrote:
@ Xatalos
I didn't mention blue reads at all. I said lurker lynches can get a blue who is trying to hide in the shadows. I never mentioned anyone I thought was blue or how we would figure a blue out. You seem to be looking so hard for slip ups you are making some yourself.
What is that if not accusing me of a Mafia slip? You never said directly I was Mafia, but looking at this sentence, I can see no reason to post it unless you thought I was Mafia. So why did you say later on that you never thought I was suspicious at all?
Other potentially suspicious bits from your filter:
- Your first post is very vague and hesitant, typical for a Mafia first post.
- Your two Mafia reads so far have been ArcticFox (easy to jump on after me) and trumpetarn (a hardcore lurker who wouldn't defend himself). If Acrofales had flipped town, you could have just put the blame on me instead of yourself. Going after trumpetarn is very easy and harmless for you, because even if he flips town, nobody will blame you for being suspicious of an anti-town lurker.
- Your sudden vote list is a "classic" Mafia tactic to appear useful without actually being useful. It's not really a reason to lynch you, but also considering the other stuff, it all adds up.
I could be swayed to vote for either imallinson or HiroPro for today, but for the moment, I'm still keeping my vote on vonKlaust - at least until he answers sufficiently.
Dittert has apparently become more active in the thread, but I'm not yet sure what to make of his posts. I'm a bit more suspicious of yomi, in fact... He keeps making excuses for his lurking, makes lackluster accusations and acts inconsistently (thinks BroodKing is the most likely Mafia, yet votes for the easiest bandwagon target at the time: Dittert). I definitely want to hear your Mafia reads, yomi, and I want you to make a unique case against someone.
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So it looks like you think HiroPro is just a bad townie, Acrofales? What about my case on imallinson then? And what exactly was bad about my case on vonKlaust? I don't understand why he tries to act all confused, yet he seems to think I'm probably Mafia, without presenting any reasoning for his suspicion.
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yomi said he'll be making a "bigger contribution" before deadline. I'm willing to wait for that before I make a case against him, but right now, I wouldn't mind lynching him. trumpetarn has been lurking for, what, 30 hours now? At this rate he doesn't even need a Vigi shot, since he'll be modkilled... I want to see more people place their votes already, or the last hours of today might become a real mess of hasty voting. Your votes will also improve my reads on you. I also want to see Willz's big contribution he said he would release 5 hours before deadline (in my opinion, too late, but whatever...).
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imallinson, I like your answer. Your calm counter-arguments make sense from a townie perspective. However, you should at least post some more. You have been pretty silent and Mafia are usually in the category between lurkers and active posters, where you fit perfectly at the moment. Post more and your townieness will become more clear. (btw there was a typo in my case, I meant ArcticFox, not Acrofales)
Acrofales, your case against Willz seems good on the surface, but I'm not sure about him. I'd want to at least see his upcoming "big contribution" before voting. However, I will look through his filter once I get home and see if I agree with you.
More than Willz I would want to lynch Yomi right now. But he also claimed he wants to contribute closer to the deadline... Hmm, I don't like this delaying of contribution Willz and Yomi are doing. I'll reconsider my vote a bit later when I can read the filters in peace.
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Acrofales, I looked at Willz's filter and I agree something is off about him. It's weird, because initially he was my strongest town read (replaced by you later), but his later posts have been more and more suspicious. ArcticFox and imallinson addressed my cases against them by calmly finding the holes in my logic, but Willz didn't actually respond to Dittert's (somewhat weak) accusations - instead he chose to start an OMGUS war against Dittert ("why do you want to lynch me, I didn't want to lynch you before, but now I do, because you want to lynch me!"). He has also been saying everyone should be transparent, but he himself has been the opposite of transparent. Why would a townie indeed want to hide his opinions so much?
I think this is a stronger case than any of my previous three cases (ArcticFox, vonKlaust, imallinson) so I'm willing to vote for him instead of vonKlaust. I don't think vonKlaust looks as townie as you seem to think, however, and I'm still leaning on him being Mafia. I'm mostly bothered by his persistent focus on me without providing ANY kind of a case or argument (even HiroPro made a weak case against me, which is better than what vonKlaust has been doing so far).
##Unvote
##Vote: willz22912
I guess trumpetarn is going to get himself modkilled soon, so our resident hardcore lurker will be yomi after that. yomi, you promised to start contributing before the deadline, and there are only 8(?) hours left now. Time's running out for you - if Willz still manages to convince us, you are a very good lynch alternative. I don't feel Dittert is very suspicious anymore, and right now I would rather lynch you than vonKlaust.
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On April 13 2012 23:52 vonKlaust wrote:@Xatalos I said you were my prime suspect, but I was and am far from sure that you are mafia. I don't agree with that I have had a persistant focus on you. I still maintain the stance that you could be mafia and I think that the chances for you being mafia is higher than others in the thread, but for now I think that Willz and Hiro are far safer bets. This is what I wrote about you when asked to pick top scum candidate: Show nested quote +I'm unsure about Xatalos. While he have done a couple of potential scumslips he feels a tad to vocal for a mafia member. And those slips can just have been the result of bad reasoning, even though I doubt it. This is my reasoning for writing that: + Show Spoiler +On April 13 2012 04:06 vonKlaust wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 03:43 Xatalos wrote:
He didn't only agree with me, he posted some additional potentially suspicious quotes from ArcticFox. That's why I didn't focus on him at that point... Mafia usually jump in sheepishly to vote once a very easy lynch target has been found, not as early as he did. Still, he hasn't done much else for this thread, and I'm watching him closely.
That's the risk I'll have to take. However, nobody was really pressuring anyone when I woke up and read the thread, so I figured I had to make the first move. There's no certainty that ArcticFox is Mafia, but given the information I have, I don't mind lynching him at the moment. This is fallacious. Of course it's better for the crooks to try to put forward some solid evidence together with joining a lynch than to just, as you put it, sheepishly vote once a very easy target has been found. Not only does it make the chances of the target actually getting lynched, but it also makes them look towny. I can accept that you would rather focus at ArticFox, but this explanation is NOT sufficient for dropping your suspicions on Iamallison To me this looks like a potential scum slip. On April 13 2012 04:46 vonKlaust wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 03:20 Xatalos wrote:
I agree with you that the response from ArcticFox was good. It still doesn't mean he is town. You, like Willz, fail to see that metagame was only the starting point of my case, not the "meat" of it. The major part of my case was his flow of useless posts about policies and blues, neither related to Mafia-hunt but easy to talk about for Mafia (without giving town any new information). However, by no means is ArcticFox a "must-lynch" for me - just that he is my preference at the moment.
Also, you have to admit my case on ArcticFox has generated a lot of useful discussion and possible Mafia slips (we can't know them all yet, as some of them will become more clear once some player's alignments are revealed). I'm all for pushing another lynch target, since everyone voting for ArcticFox would make it too easy for Mafia to blend in. Seeing players' reactions to different lynch pushes will be very helpful. I went back to research Xatalos filter after this incident: + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14321137 And found this piece of text. This strikes me as pretty awkward. Not only is he trying to justify his case by saying that it generated discussion, but he also proposes to push another lynch target, not because he thinks that ArticFox is a bad lynch, but because "It would make it too easy for Mafia to blend in". Of course pushing for lynches generates discussion, but that does not justify pushing bad lynches. Of course you can use votes to pressure, but your vote against ArticFox don't really come across as a pressure vote to me. Also it feels a bit wierd that you seem so decisive while still saying stuff like "By no means is ArticFox a must-lynch for me" and "I'm all for pushing another lynch target". Especially when you earlier in the game wrote stuff like: Show nested quote +There's only so much you can do 7 hours into the game, but what I've got from these posts has been VERY useful + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14315170 Show nested quote +I suggest everyone to read my case on ArcticFox and vote for him. I'd put his chances of being Mafia at 70-80%, which is extremely high for me considering it's this early. + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14315248 It feels like you're trying to get out of the lynch-train you created in the first place, while still maintaining ArticFox as a prime suspect. As far as I can tell, you didn't really ever back down from your claims. You just went defensive when people started to criticize your case.
Hmm. You actually HAD some sort of a case against me. Your remarks are just so vague and uncertain that I haven't taken your observations seriously enough.
I didn't say, at any point, that I had a town read on imallinson... I just said my suspicions of him "dropped a bit" after he made some valid additional points about ArcticFox and voted for him. I didn't think Mafia would so eagerly jump on the first possibility of a bandwagon - from what I've seen, Mafia usually wait until lynching someone gathers strong enough support and then blend in with the mass of voters. I'm not saying Mafia have to play passive and/or leave the initiative for town, but imallinson's fast agreement with my vote didn't seem very Mafia-like to me (too reckless and careless - generally Mafia are cautious and avoid the spotlight).
I agree that I was too convinced by my own case, and I should have shifted my attention away from ArcticFox sooner. I think a reason for that might be that in my previous game (AGOT) there was a pretty aggressive town player named Mattchew, who found out 75% (3/4) of the Mafia team in a matter of hours, but he had too little faith in himself and followed the general opinion instead of his own opinion. If he had pushed even one of us during the first day, he might have won the game for town. I think that's the main reason why I didn't want to give up on my case on ArcticFox so fast, but in the end, it's not useful to tunnel so hard on one person if the general opinion has already shifted against my case. I don't consider ArcticFox a good lynch anymore even myself.
By the way, I would be much more suspicious of YOU jumping for the ArcticFox bandwagon than imallinson. imallinson at least added content to my case and was pretty open and fearless about his support for my case. You, on the other hand, tried your very best to avoid responsibility. You said just that it "carried some truth" without adding anything of your own to it (other than your hesitant support for the case). Care to explain this?
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Good, Willz has arrived. I'm VERY interested to hear what you have to say after this long silence and hiding your opinions.
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On April 14 2012 01:29 vonKlaust wrote:I'll just quote the post I made about it: + Show Spoiler +On April 12 2012 21:36 vonKlaust wrote:Ok, I must disappointedly admit that I feel pretty lost. So far I think most cases have felt a bit rushed, but I guess that could be because I'm simply not used to this kind of speculative reasoning. I do however think that Xatalos case on ArticFox seems to carry some truth. If I would have to vote right now, I would probably go with this. + Show Spoiler +On April 12 2012 15:57 Xatalos wrote:/confirm I strongly disagree with people saying this discussion has been "idle chat" or "pointless discussion". There's only so much you can do 7 hours into the game, but what I've got from these posts has been VERY useful: in fact, after reading all the posts in one go, I'm already ready to cast a vote (not just a fake pressure like KharadBanar). The person I want to lynch the most right now is: ArcticFox. Here is what I got from his filter so far: Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 08:34 ArcticFox wrote:
Let's not waste Day 1. Too many times I've seen people say it's not important. We can find out plenty as long as everyone posts. Please be active so we don't waste our first lynch on a bored townie. The sooner everyone posts, the sooner we can get to the real scumhunting. On the surface this looks like friendly advice to fellow townies, but this is EXACTLY the kind of posting I did on A Game of Thrones Mafia as a Mafia Framer. His attitude seems like he wants to appear useful, but he doesn't really say anything useful - the opposite of actual townies who want to be useful, but don't care as much about their appearance. The overall feel I get from this post is "please don't lynch me, I'm being useful!" Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 08:58 ArcticFox wrote:
I hope our blues this game are as clever as you were that game, KB.
Discussion is good. Idle chat is not.
As you newer people confirm, please post shortly after with your thoughts on these policies as well. First of all: why discuss about blue roles at all? This is the same mistake I did in A Game of Thrones Mafia - we kept talking about blue roles in the Mafia chat, so subconsciously I mentioned possibilities about the blue roles even in the normal thread. And what do you mean with "idle chat is not good"? So far this "idle chat" has been very useful (certainly much more useful than silence or the trolling/flaming we had in A Game of Thrones Mafia...). Also, you keep mentioning policies, which is something Mafia loves to do - you can appear somewhat useful without actually contributing anything. Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 09:21 ArcticFox wrote:On April 12 2012 09:16 Dittert wrote:
Not RNG lynch... RNG proposed lynch. I was trying to gauge people's reactions to things. If we RNG and hit scum, surely at least 2 people will jump up to defend that person or risk losing one of their own. If no one really cares about killing that person, they're probably town. Verrrrry WIFOM reasoning. Be careful of that. It sounds logical, but discussing motive rarely leads anywhere. What if scum decides to bus? What if someone jumps up to defend because they think RNG is silly, or they have a blue read on him? This line of reasoning leads nowhere fast, and it's best to ignore it. You're tripping my scum-o-meter pretty hard right now. Got any better suggestions? There he goes again, talking about blue roles. It's too bad it probably ends now after I mention this, but I would have wanted to see how many times he can talk about blue roles / blue reads during the game, since this is the second time already in only 7 hours... And if you think Dittert is Mafia, why not vote for him or even put any real pressure on him? It looks like you just want to fake pressure an obvious target (a suspiciously acting townie) or put some distance between yourself and a fellow Mafia (if he gets lynched, you can claim you "pushed for his lynch" all along). Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 10:28 ArcticFox wrote:On April 12 2012 10:17 HiroPro wrote:LaL seems to be a standard play. I'm all for lynching liars above all else. It sets a good tone that we won't allow scum to get away with it either. What do you mean by this? You say that lynching lying townies scares scum? I don't follow. I would prefer not to have to policy lynch at all, but liars and lurkers is a good place to start if we don't have any solid scumreads by the end of Day 1. So in short -- more people should post so we have more information to go on and can avoid a policy lynch. You look like you want to make a policy lynch, since you keep talking about policies, but still try to appear as if you "want" to lynch a Mafia player (if something too obvious comes along and you have to bus your teammate). I got a pretty solid Mafia read already in just a matter of hours, so this discussion is definitely not "useless"... ##Vote: ArcticFoxOther people I'm going to keep a close watch on: Dittert, yomi. Neither have contributed to the thread, but still tried to appear "active" enough to avoid being lynched. yomi even had a strange OMGUS reaction to BroodKingEXE after being suspected, without ANYTHING to back up his counter-suspicion. Also, this: Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 09:49 Dittert wrote:
I feel it's okay if I have a terrible idea, with this being my first game of mafia in my whole life, and all... Exactly the same kind of tactic I employed in A Game of Thrones Mafia... You want to apologize for your mistakes and noobish play (why would a townie ever need the urge to make a public apology?!) to make people think of you as a noob townie. I can feel the fear and hesitation pouring from this post. I would also want to hear your opinion, Acrofales. You were VERY active and talkative in A Game of Thrones Mafia, but so far you have been inactive. What do you think about my case on ArcticFox? Do you have your own Mafia reads that I might have missed? Both the blue-talk and the policy lynching-talk seems a bit odd. I guess you could agrue that ArticFox could be blue himself, but it doesn't strike me as very natural behaviour to talk so much about blues if you are one yourself since you would desperately want to stay hidden. I'm not quite as confident about this as Xatalos seems to be, but to me this seems to be the best analysis so far. Some people have been critical towards Dittert and his RNG-talk. To me he comes across more as a nervous newbie(no offence, I'm pretty much a nervous newbie myself!) than scum. I think he's sincere about the claim that he was actually after sparking discussion rather than actually pushing for RNGing. My explanation is simply: I thought it carried some truth, so I wrote "I think it carries some truth". Looking back, I do agree that it's pretty much too vague to actually be a usefull post. I just wrote what I was thinking. Maybe I should have kept those thoughts to myself since I really didn't add anything.
Hm..... Okay. So, you admit your own actions have been a bit suspicious so far (or at the very least not good play), but what do you think about my response to your criticisms?
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On April 14 2012 02:07 vonKlaust wrote:Oh, lol, I completely forgot to answer that part. Here goes. Show nested quote +I didn't say, at any point, that I had a town read on imallinson... I just said my suspicions of him "dropped a bit" after he made some valid additional points about ArcticFox and voted for him. I didn't think Mafia would so eagerly jump on the first possibility of a bandwagon - from what I've seen, Mafia usually wait until lynching someone gathers strong enough support and then blend in with the mass of voters. I'm not saying Mafia have to play passive and/or leave the initiative for town, but imallinson's fast agreement with my vote didn't seem very Mafia-like to me (too reckless and careless - generally Mafia are cautious and avoid the spotlight). Your suspicions dropped a bit because he provided evidence for a lynch rather than just wait and blindly bandwagon. Of course mafia would want to provide evidence for lynches to act more town. If they see a chance to put the spotlight on some townie, it would make sense for the mafia to try to frame that person. Basically there is two strategies as town: 1. Try to blend in 2. Try to establish your innocense Ofcourse these can be combined, but you seem to take for granted that Imallinson would go for blending in. It's just as likely that he would want to frame ArticFox if he thinks he can get away with it. The fact that Imallinson provided evidence to your case says nothing about his alignment. It makes just as much sense for a scum trying to lynch a townie to provide evidence as it does for a townie trying to lynch a mafia members. To me, it just feels like what Imallinson wrote shouldn't have been enough to explicilty state that your suspicions of him dropping. You didn't adress the point about trying to justify your case on other grounds than it being a good case. I'm curious on your thoughts about that.
(I take it you mean "two strategies as Mafia".) You are right, it's certainly possible imallinson is a Mafia player who is focusing on survival and town credibility over advancing Mafia agenda. It's not a strong Mafia play in the long run, but I can see why a new Mafia player would try that: it's more likely you will live past the first day(s), even though it will come to bite you later when your inconsistensies start to show more easily. In my previous Mafia game, 3 of us 4 were cautious semi-lurkers, while Acrofales was the only active poster with relevant content. So I'd say the odds are in favor of a town-like playstyle actually BEING town play, rather than trying your hardest to appear townie. Can you understand my logic? And I still haven't said that imallinson would be a town read for me. I'm pretty neutral on him at the moment, although I'm slightly leaning on Mafia if he doesn't become more active than he is currently.
If you didn't notice, there wasn't much material to make a case with when I made my case on ArcticFox. It was partly based on metagame, I agree, and probably I looked too much at how AGOT unfolded to choose my target. In AGOT 50% (2/4) of Mafia was under heavy suspicion only after a couple of hours had passed, and I myself came under suspicion by Mattchew soon after. Even small clues can be very useful, so I started the game aggressively and initiated a heavy pressure on the player I found most suspicious: ArcticFox (partly based on metagame, but also based on universally accepted Mafia tells I noticed from him). If you look at AGOT (I know, you hate metagame...), many players made pressures with MUCH worse arguments than I did against ArcticFox (such as the order of mentioning a certain post... WTF?) and I just thought it was good to get the pressure going as fast as possible, even if the arguments weren't exactly perfect yet. And in the end, the pressure did lead to ArcticFox being pretty townie in my eyes and created a lot of replies and opinions from various people, so I can't say it was a bad idea at all.
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On April 14 2012 02:33 willz22912 wrote:Xatalos, you may agree with the case against me, but please correct this statement here: Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 23:39 Xatalos wrote:
Acrofales, I looked at Willz's filter and I agree something is off about him. It's weird, because initially he was my strongest town read (replaced by you later), but his later posts have been more and more suspicious. ArcticFox and imallinson addressed my cases against them by calmly finding the holes in my logic, but Willz didn't actually respond to Dittert's (somewhat weak) accusations - instead he chose to start an OMGUS war against Dittert ("why do you want to lynch me, I didn't want to lynch you before, but now I do, because you want to lynch me!"). He has also been saying everyone should be transparent, but he himself has been the opposite of transparent. Why would a townie indeed want to hide his opinions so much?
I still don't want to lynch Dittert, I still believe he is a newbie town and he will be very chagrined by the alignment I flip. I did not really start the OMGUS war, because I see that the original basis for Dittert's case against me was that he thought I was trying to start a mis-lynch on him because of his rng-proposal. Technically, he has started the OMGUS war all along. I only got angry about it, which has led to my downfall. You even state here that it's (somewhat weak) accusations. I did try to address them, but it was mostly about specific posts I made (out of many) that he found suspicious. He never made a solid case against me, I just wanted him to stop. If you are willing to lynch me because I became overly defensive when it came to a first time forum player continuing to attack me with what everyone agrees is poor logic, that's fine, but realize that I still don't think that Dittert is Mafia, and when I flip, please don't lynch him first, go after the others on my bandwagon.
Hmm.. I can see where you're coming from. It's reasonable you would get angry as a townie when someone keeps tunneling on you for 30+ hours with bad reasoning. A big part of why I agreed to vote for you was your refusal to share your opinions on (pretty much) anyone, and now you have done so, which decreases my will to lynch you. If I was Mafia and in such a situation as you are in now, I would just create chaos and not give away any new information to town, but you have made some very reasonable posts although your lynch seems likely. Keep posting, I'm already almost ready to consider another lynch target at this point. Even if you do get lynched regardless, if you flip town after that, everything you say now will carry great weight tomorrow.
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