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On April 20 2012 03:53 vonKlaust wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2012 03:38 willz22912 wrote:
@ the statistic talk
There are 5 town alive, 3 mafia alive. Everyone is coming up with 25% because you're not going to count yourself as not-town(scumslip) so theres only 4 other town.
Claiming chance of dt is 1/7 is wrong because there are 3 mafia still in the game and they cannot be DT obviously. Let's assume for a moment that Xatalos is scum and Dittert is a copper. Xatalos would know that Dittert is townie, but not if he is blue or not. He also knows who are his scumbuddies. From his perspecitve this would make the statistics of Dittert being cop 1/5. From a town perspective, you don't know who are the mafia members, and the statistics would be 1/8. What I'm thinking is that Xatalos slipped, and accidentally posted the mafia version of the statistics without thinking about that he should have used the town statistics. However he did remember to count himself out of the equation, landing on 25% instead of 20%. From a town perspective, counting himself out this would make 1/7. Does this make any sense or am I just an idiot?
Look at my previous post and stop that idiotic WIFOM. If you continue to ignore Willz and Dittert while trying to cast suspicion upon me instead, you might be the last Mafia instead of Funcmode.
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On April 20 2012 04:09 funcmode wrote:
@Willz - If you're right about the Dittert/Xatalos/imallinson scum team, then lynching Xatalos tonight instead of Dittert makes some sense. But, as it stands, Xatalos' case against you links you with Dittert. And you're argument for them bussing Dittert also obviously means Dittert has to be scum.
It's very hard for me to throw my support entirely behind either of these claims, as both seem reasonable. However, the one thing they all hinge on is Dittert being scum. Let me put it another way, if we lynch Dittert tonight and he's scum, the game goes on. If we lynch Xatalos, who right now to me has a higher chance than Dittert of being town, the game might go on, with potentially better evidence to move forward, but if he is town, the game ends (and I guess you win?)
So, while I agree that there may be more benefit to lynching Xatalos if he does flip scum, do you not agree that Dittert is still a safer lynch target? You said yourself that at least until we have a scum flip, we have to lynch the strongest scum read.
This is still a vague and hesitant post, but at least it's better than what you've had so far. And you do bring up the most important point of lynching Dittert: no matter what, everyone thinks he's Mafia, so obviously it's best to lynch him now, since if we lynch a "less safe" Mafia and it was a mistake, it's game over.
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On April 20 2012 04:33 KharadBanar wrote:
EBWOP: Oops, forgot to change my vote in the heat of the argument, sorry
This situation is truly nerveracking, especially if you are the accused one and have to find valid arguments to help yourself out...
##Unvote
##Vote: Xatalos
So you rather believe Willz - whose case against me is completely WIFOM and based on connections - than me and Acrofales, who have both made a good case against Willz (without relying on WIFOM or connections). Unless you're just trying to bait Mafia into voting for me (which is very risky and could possibly lose the game right now), you must be Mafia (considering you were praised for your logic in the previous game).
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So, the current situation is:
Xatalos (3): Willz, KharadBanar, imallinson
Dittert (2): Xatalos, yomi
KharadBanar (1): Dittert
vonKlaust and funcmode have yet to vote.
I'm guessing Dittert won't change his vote anymore, since he has always been away(?) at the deadline. imallinson also said he would be away at the dealine (with a pretty weird reason).
I'd assume both funcmode and vonKlaust will vote for me in the end (vonKlaust has been ignoring Willz&Dittert and just accusing me with some WIFOM, and funcmode is probably Mafia).
This means that if nothing major happens, the vote will be like this:
Xatalos (5): Willz, KharadBanar, imallinson, vonKlaust, funcmode
Dittert (2): Xatalos, yomi
KharadBanar (1): Dittert
Does this really look like I, Dittert and imallinson are the Mafia team? It looks more like Mafia wants to lynch me now and win the game outright.
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On April 20 2012 05:21 KharadBanar wrote:
Xatalos, Willz's case may be based on WIFOM and connections, but I'm not voting you for some case he just now made and how you are bussing Dittert etc.
I am voting you because I have had a long time to build an opinion of both you and willz believing there is one scum between the two of you, and you have in total acted more scummy than willz. Especially the behaviour of the two of you right now speaks volumes: willz is trying with me to solve the puzzle of how to get the right votes in the right places, and you are accusing me of being scum for it. Do you believe this makes you look less scummy to the rest of town?
Didn't you read my case against Willz and like it? He has been semi-lurking all game, not furthering town agenda except when about to be lynched, and basing his play only on WIFOM, connections and information gathering. Exactly something Mafia would like to do. And even now his reasoning for me being Mafia is just a weird connection theory.
(And I didn't claim you to be Mafia: I just said you have bad logic or are Mafia, and I think the former is the case right now.)
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On April 20 2012 05:41 KharadBanar wrote:
All I can say with certainty about willz is that he's always been dead on when it counted.
Now it counts, and he's making much sense right now. I have nothing more to say about that.
Isn't it weird he's only dependable when his life is on the line? And when he's not talked about, he just retreats to the shadows and does nothing useful until about to be lynched again?
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I see now that the Dittert fake claim was only meant to create this chaos and allow for a complete WIFOM theory about me bussing Dittert (while if I actually was Mafia and Willz town, it would make 100% zero sense to bus Dittert now that Willz was about to be lynched). Here, let me quote my case against Willz:
On April 19 2012 01:48 Xatalos wrote:I must really congratulate you, Willz. You had me fooled after your nice Day 1 defense, and I pretty much ignored your filter until that one post which someone called as "the most scummy post so far". I have taken a hard look at your filter and finally noticed several Mafia themes that didn't occur to me before. The Lack of TransparencyYou post this pretty early in the game: Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 10:36 willz22912 wrote:
You are trying to dissuade town from being transparent and posting their thoughts for fear of being a target by Mafia. I had this opinion too, why share your information so openly so early, but I learned from Gonzaw in Aperture Mafia that it's better to give 100% effort as town no matter if you die, in order to help the rest of the town figure out who's scum. Transparency and an active town is key to winning, you seem to be against this for fear of your own mortality, this is bad for town.
I fully agree with this post, but it seems like you didn't. You only mentioned some exceptionally vague suspicions (imallinson and BroodKingEXE) and continued to hide your opinions until very late in Day 1. Even then, all you have is a pretty apathetic case on BroodKingEXE. It doesn't convince anyone, and you don't seem really convinced about it even yourself. BroodKingEXE actually does get lynched later, but it has nothing to do with your case. You promise to be more transparent after this, but I can't really see how you have achieved that. You take no stances during Day 2 except that lynching me "would give good information". Even more apathetic and lackluster reasoning than what you had for BroodKingEXE. After BroodKingEXE you haven't actually even made a single case or accused someone of being Mafia (except in a vague and forgettable way). All you have done is avoid suspicion or being identified with any particular lynch. The Apathy and the HesitationI already touched on this point with the previous section, but your apathy towards lynching Mafia is spectacular. You seem to have no interest at all in lynching any particular player, except for information or confirming townies. Look at this post for example: Show nested quote +On April 16 2012 02:24 willz22912 wrote:
I know for myself that I am town, but I cannot prove it, so we should use this lynch to see what the real relationship is (if one of is us [Xatalos/Willz] scum) You seem to have a neutral / slight town read on me at that point, and you don't really offer any reasoning for voting me expect that my town flip would help yourself or my Mafia flip would implicate you (since I helped you during the Day 1 lynch). Considering you are Mafia, you already know I'm town, so this is a perfect opportunity to lynch me and get yourself some "credibility" considering past events. But if you are town, there is absolutely NO reason to lynch someone with a neutral / town read just for a small bit of information. You never take hard stances towards lynching, but rather say something vague like "his flip would give us information" or "he seems a bit suspicious lately". The InconsistenciesYour playstyle is very inconsistent. On the other hand, you avoid putting on pressure or making any kind of analysis. But on the other hand, when you are yourself under pressure, you become like a different person. Suddenly your posts are very convincing, logical and direct - the exact opposite of the usual hesitant, useless and vague. The Noob CardAlthough you are certainly one of the most skilled players in this game (at least when looking at your pressure deflection), when asked for explanations about your lack of interest in Mafia hunting, your answers are like this: Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 22:39 willz22912 wrote:
Do you really think it's easy to build cases against Mafia when you have low credibility and you are incurring claims of OMGUS every time you try to point something out? I had upwards of 6+ votes at one point, it's obviously mathematically impossible to say that only Mafia voted me, fellow town also did. I'm trying to read through the logic and see where the real Mafia are, but I am stuck with defending Dittert and myself, giving me no time to push my reads.
What's the point in using all your energy to defend a random player and yourself? It's in no way helpful, actually it's confusing to only post defensively and never take stances on who you think are Mafia. I also find it highly unlikely you haven't had any (non-vague) Mafia reads in this game, while the rest of the town have been extremely suspicious of a lot of players. I also find your way of constantly playing the noob card disturbing: you are certainly among the better players here, you have had the best pressure deflection of anyone so far, yet you are too noob to have Mafia reads? This combination of facts doesn't make any sense, and you repeating the noob card over and over makes it even more suspect. The HenchmanThe last and the least of my arguments: funcmode. When you made your post that everyone called as "weird", "suspicious" or even "the most scummy post in the game"... What did funcmode have to say about it? At least that it was "weird" or "useless"? No, not at all. According to funcmode, it was a very pro-town post...! Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 05:45 funcmode wrote:
-This whole post comes across as very pro-town, largely in part because it agrees with many of the things I'm currently thinking.
-(/facepalm) suggests some genuine townie disappointment.
-Comments on defense of Acro by Xatalos.
-Brings something new to the table (both winners in a previous mafia as scum which gives them an extra out with meta arguments, admits it's flimsy but still worthy of noting.
I can see no reason for such a strange defense of Willz's (and the whole game's) worst post so far - unless Willz and funcmode are both Mafia. Granted, weird things can happen even without a malicious connection, but this just looks completely too weird and out of place. When you add this up with the earlier sections, them being Mafia&Mafia makes a lot of sense. However, I'm in no way suggesting a funcmode lynch right now, since Willz is even higher on my suspects - and we HAVE to lynch one Mafia now for certain or we lose.
Does this REALLY make less sense than Willz's WIFOM case against me?
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I'm up for lynching either Willz or Dittert right now. yomi, you seem to be the only one believing me right now (although I tunneled on you for quite some time...). Would you be ready to vote for Willz?
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On April 20 2012 05:51 KharadBanar wrote:
It's NOT about just willz' WIFOM case against you now. It's about your behaviour all game long, pointing in all different directions with inconsistent logic while at the same time always tunneling the same people with your votes. willz' case just tops it off at this point, also he seems reasonable in his voting analysis while you don't, at least to me.
Acrofales made a good point: look at my previous game (GoT Mafia). I never took hard stances, I was hesitant and vague, just like Willz in this game. It's maybe possible to change your behaviour somewhat, but I'm a completely different person I was in GoT - there isn't even a shred of resemblance in the posting style. It's not so easy to change your playstyle 100%.
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On April 20 2012 05:46 KharadBanar wrote:
You on the other hand have been wrong in so many things throughout this game, I wouldn't be surprised if you're "wrong" again.
I'm not the only one who has been wrong at all. There were 6+ votes on both BroodKingEXE and HiroPro. And I wasn't trying to blend in or appear hesitant in the votes, I agreed the votes were for good reasons (high chance of lynching Mafia). It's not townies who avoid mistakes - Mafia are careful about being linked to any lynch, but I haven't been afraid to have my opinion heard at any point.
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On April 20 2012 05:58 willz22912 wrote:
If you thought your case against me was so solid Xatalos, why did you switch your vote to Dittert for one mistake? Why not continue the vote against me and use Dittert's fake-claim as more evidence to add to your case in the first place? Why does one action distract you from your overall purpose?
Isn't taking the easy out and jumping on someone for making 1 scummy post how town has gotten here to this shitty situation in the first place? (Brood making that awful post, instant lynch in <20m), Hiro coming out and Acro making a single case against him with 1 hour before deadline(when I, Xatalos, Yomi all were more suspicious overall in that game) convincing 7 of us to vote him making town lynch their own doctor.
You made your case to convince the rest of the town to lynch me, I did the same to lynch you. However one post by Dittert let's you drop everything and vote him instead? I kept asking you why you would do such a thing when it only adds more weight to your case against me, why didn't you just stick to voting me and ignoring Dittert's fake DT claim if you think he's Mafia. If you think Dittert is Mafia, why did you put so much stock into a fake DT claim?
Fake DT claim means 100% Mafia, your play means 99% Mafia. We HAVE to lynch Mafia now or we lose. What's complicated about voting for your best Mafia read?
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On April 20 2012 05:47 yomi wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2012 04:35 willz22912 wrote:
Again @ all town, I advise you to ignore Dittert's DT claim and either vote myself or Xatalos as originally intended for D3 and by Acrofales/HiroPro.
If you think Dittert flipping scum would give weight to me being his teammate and grounds for a lynch D4, then you have your proof right now and can get rid of me instead first. Dittert's post all but incriminates us together, lynch me now then instead of lynching him.
If you think my case against Xatalos has any merit, and can see that what I'm saying about Xatalos bussing Dittert his scum teammate, then vote him instead and when he does flip, you can see his true intentions, which is so much more information than what lynching Dittert would provide for town. If town gets a choice in lynching two almost certain Mafia, town should lynch the Mafia that would give town more information, since we can only lynch one at a time and we are not completely certain of a person's alignment until they flip, unlike Mafia who already know who their enemies are. You are saying if xat is mafia ditt is also mafia, but if ditt is mafia xat could still potentially be town?
Inconsistencies like this only add weight to my case against Willz.
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On April 20 2012 05:56 KharadBanar wrote:
If you can change your posting style 100% while going from mafia to town, you can probably do it if you're going from mafia to mafia. It's exactly as hard as not changing your posting style while going from town to mafia.
It's not about me purposefully changing my personality. The whole idea of meta-arguments is that it's really, really hard to fight against your emotions. When you are town, you feel fearless and aggressive. When you are Mafia, you feel afraid and hesitant. Which of these two fits me now?
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On April 20 2012 06:09 KharadBanar wrote:
Afraid and aggressive. Not sure based on that.
Say even one situation where I have been afraid to say my opinion. I have always been free and careless about my thoughts, not vague and hesitant like Mafia.
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And KharadBanar, how come your Mafia read on me is based on "my complete playstyle"? Considering I was only your #4/#5 Mafia read a while ago:
On April 18 2012 03:51 KharadBanar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2012 23:31 Acrofales wrote:
@KB. I looked over your other Newbie game and you seemed to be a bit more active in D2 there, engaging people in conversation all over the place and more of a leader than a follower, as opposed to this D2. I have gone into a what-if scenario where we have so far been completely wrong in our scumreads and your name pops up on my scumdar. I don't think there is any harm in continuing the analysis and scumhunting in the night this time, because mafia can kill whoever they like as long as they get to manipulate tomorrow's vote. So. Scum top 3 and why. I'm sorry, just came back from uni (long day today, and probably the rest of the week too) and read up on the thread: I don't think as much as other people that Acrofales is scum. Mafia may be good, but I believe they're not good enough to make one of the top 2 town reads right now. Top 3 5, in order of scumminess: After willz22912's post about Acrofales, he (again) set off a scum warning in my head, and looking back to his posting history I realised that the only reason I unvoted him once was that his defense seemed genuine at the time. Now it looks as if he has to defend himself once too often. I really have a bad feeling about him. yomi is still going strong as another probable read; he has seemed kinda middlish (between town and scum, rather on the townie side) for a long time, but I recently looked back at his Day 1 filter and boy does it look scummy. Looking at it again I don't really understand why town dropped him as the lynch for the day so quickly and went after BroodKingEXE. imallinson is in the reverse situation: He looks pretty scummy in his latest posts, but not so much before that. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt however, since BroodKing and HiroPro were pretty much lynched on the same basis and I have absolutely no intention of repeating that. Dittert and Xatalos are not as suspect as during Day 2 coming from Acrofales' connection analysis, but they still have a way to go before being completely cleared in my mind. That's it for my nightly reads, if that leads to Acrofales getting shot in the end I apologize, but I don't think he's the one to be hated on right now. I will probably see you again no earlier than tomorrow because my university schedule is really stepping it up after spring break, but I think I can make one or two posts from uni computers. Go town!
And don't forget that Acrofales (the most pro-town poster in the game) said we should lynch Willz today:
On April 18 2012 07:58 Acrofales wrote:Acro's nightly readsI don't think it will come as a surprise to anyone that my top 1 scum read is Willz. The reason can be found here. The wifom post is making me think I will be left to live. The opportunity to wifom why I was left alive is just too good and there are plenty of other town targets. Xata and I are surviving the night. KB or vonKlaust is dying. I will address funcnode's criticisms in a future post, I just want to point out that he may be forgiven for misinterpreting the "noob" statement. He missed this post before the game started when I was requesting to join, which is what I was referring to. Other than that I don't find emotional evaluation particularly useful unless it is in eliciting a response. I was F5ing around the time of the post and was dumbfounded for a couple of minutes. I assessed what this meant and realised that people would be very suspect of me. So I posted that. I don't post useless oneliners as town unless I'm trolling. Also, really? "For fucks sake" suggests genuine disappointment? Lol. It is meaningless. How the hell do you get any kind of sincere read out of a textual for fucks sake? You are soft-defending willz here. Why? The rest comes if I live through the night. Back to the nightly reads. Second on my scumlist is Yomi. I have nothing much solid on him at the moment, but some things jumped out at me as suspicious. Specifically, this post: Show nested quote +On April 17 2012 06:49 yomi wrote:
Looks like we aren't going through on dittert today. Sort of odd but ok. So I am weighing xat vs hiropro. Xat I still think really posts in a mafia way. I still sort of hate this cost/benefit analysis thing he does where he pleads to people's self-interest to vote a certain way. It is just reflective of a general viewpoint towards lynching that the point of it is to survive or to kill which I think is a bit different from how a townie views it. This is a very "emotional" sort of read so it may just be coming from my own admitted total bias against xat. Right when he starts to appeal to my interests to move towards hiro (aka saving him) I cringed and just wanted to vote him even harder.
ON THE OTHER HAND!:
Who are his teammates? Maybe I am just biased towards myself and egocentric etc whatever but I feel like the xat case originates from me. And was easy to shut down initially. I start going at the guy at a time when I myself don't have a lot of credit and most people are still reading xat as pretty town at this point. I think my arguments against him could have been shouted down pretty easily but they weren't. People kind of sat there on the sidelines and looked at it and let the discussion happen. I just think two mafia players could have shut me down right then and there and no one would be looking at xat today.
Hiropro on the other hand has a very very obvious teammate. I went through his filter way back and show him again and again defending ditt. I don't have nearly the patience to substantiate this but my feeling is this is one of the most consistent alignments of any one player towards another so far in the game. I don't know how much dittert reciprocates back though.
So I'm still on the fence here. Xat still seems mafia. However, this one time, his cost/benefit analysis of the lynches is I believe correct. There IS more upside to a hiro mafia flip as it gives us a go-ahead play on a lynch tomorrow or even a vigi shot tonight which would put us in a very strong winning position with all the time in the world to route out the remaining mafia player. If he flips town well he wasn't contributing too much anyway.
Are we so far behind that we have to go for the double play or lose? 3-7 it is right now? That's not great, they only need one or at most two townies to come with them for a lynch on whomever they choose.
Soooooo. Not sure. It could be nothing, but I get the feeling that he has completely forgotten his earlier suspicion of HiroPro here. That was not a bad case at all. In the intervening time HiroPro does nothing to defend himself against it and only says something about Xatalos' post and Arcticfox's suspicions. Why did Yomi drop the HiroPro case so completely in the meantime, as well as the HiroPro-Dittert connection, which HE was the first to put eyes on? Was this distancing himself from a mislynch? I'm not sure, but it is strange. It is currently the best I have to go on. For the third I was going to go with funcnode. This was before his last post. I don't like his last post much at all, but if I die, my green blood will make it all clear and otherwise I will respond tomorrow. Town: Xatalos, KB, vonKlaust and probably imallison. No clue on Dittert. + Show Spoiler [Hopefully not-too-illegible notes] +
BroodKingEXE:
proposes two policy lynch things for discussion. Being dumb about KharadBanar's pressure vote. Shores up his early game discussion and tries to move it forward. Still nothing, though.
DEAD: flipped town
KharadBanar:
very active at the start, but very careful about wording his opinions. Wants to know about an "opening strategy". KharadBanar shoots down Dittert's proposal.
Hard to get a read on. He's active, but not doing anything useful. Points out problems with RNG, but not the main problem, which is THAT IT'S STUPID.
Pulls off pressure vote immediately
Makes a good defense against my accusations and explains the Hiro "pressure" and voices suspicions of Xatalos.
Much better pressure vote on Yomi. Voices his small suspicions rationally.
Is easily convinced by my case. Shits on willz's case for good reasons = null tells.
Reasonable towards willz. Is convinced by willz's defense and votes hiropro (who he has no real case against, but is second in his scumometer).
Is also easily convinced by Xatalos' case against yomi. Looking for consensus surrounding Broodking.
Sheeping Dittert vote. Makes a list post.
No longer thinks HiroPro is suspicious. Uses a bit of wifom, but his filter analysis is good (and he put a LOT of work into it, more than scum usually does). Uncalled for lists are not normal from scum: there was no pressure on him to make it at all.
Decent connection-based analysis, but high wifom. Does not take votes into account in a strong way.
Jumps on Xatalos misinterpreting Yomi's post... could be a townie after scum, or a scum driving home the nails in the coffin.
Agrees with my analysis post. Uses it to draw a connection to Xatalos.
Townometer: iiiii
Scumomenter: iii
LAST UPDATE: April 18 @ 03:42
vonKlaust:
agrees on lurker lynch, but is not sure about liars. Pulls noobie card for "no reads" and seems very sincere about it. Thinks Dittert is a nervous noobie. Affirms that he has no reads yet, but in a townie manner. Seems to be the local bullshit detector..
Is very honest about his reads and his mistakes.
Has willz as top town. Top scum is "harder": weak suspicion of HiroPro and Xatalos.
Comes under fire from Xatalos (and HiroPro. Possible connection there?), but I like his defense. Bit of an OMGUS on HiroPro, but still uses logic.
Adds his reasoning to my case on willz.
Long back and forth with Xatalos over nothing. No real read.
Looks into other people. Posts his findings. Seems very townie in his quandary over willz vs. yomi.
First to respond in surprise over brood's flip. I don't like that he just jumped on it without thinking it through. Votes without ever really saying why "what what what WHAT?" is the closest he gets.
Is very suspicious of willz during the night. Has a really good point about yomi lurking until under pressure.
Makes a list post: rehashes some points already made. Good reads, though. I like what he says on KB. Likes a DITTERT-XATA scumteam. This is interesting, because the dittert/xata bandwagons are already under way.
Has a strong scumread on Dittert. Uses my analysis to draw his own conclusions. Townie attitude in trying to figure shit out. Is correctly suspicious of my factual blunder on the Hiro case. Keeps his vote on his strongest scum read, Dittert.
Scumometer: ii
Townometer: vii
LAST UPDATE: April 18 @ 03:42
ArcticFox:
likes LaL policy. Thinks there won't be lurkers. Explains support for LaL in a good way. Excellent response to Xatalos' post. Suspects vonKlaust for his wishy washy non-play.
Townometer: i
DEAD. Was town. Posted the usual suspects. Mostly Yomi and willz. Says "Why not go after imallinson as well? Imallinson's filter reads SO scummy right now, it practically drips red."
Calls Xatalos out in the night. Suspects Dittert during the night (because of his post).
Shot by mafia, so maybe look into Yomi, Willz, imallison, Xatalos. Slight suspicion of HiroPro as a lurker.
Dittert:
proposes nonsense. Pulling newbie card. Response to light pressure is to OMGUS Willz. He also claims yomi lied, which is dumb. He might just be another Risen, but it's too hard to distinguish shitty town from mafia. Try to keep an open mind when reading him. Posting very deluded, makes some interesting points about Willz, but apologizes immediately for being a noob.
Seems very convinced in the triad of willz, yomi, arcticfox and is reaching to make it stick. Town reads are really strange. KB makes some sense, but why Brood and imallison?
Extends his case on willz.
Makes a really really angry post about the brood lynch. Nothing constructive and shitting on town. Gets everybody's backs up. Next up, he martyrs himself.
Gives a plausible explanation for his anger when coming to his senses. He still thinks willz is scum and builds slowly on his case. WIFOMing willz' reason for defending him is a bit strange, but it's making more sense than he has so far in the thread.
Picks up on an interesting thing Xata said.
Later is convinced Xata is scum.
Makes another non-contribution calling everybody stupid. His lack of conviction is worth shooting.
Townometer: iii
Scumometer: iii
LAST UPDATE April 18 @ 05:09
Willz:
shooting down bad proposals and pricking through bullshit by KharadBanar, including his "pressure" vote. Shoots Xatalos' case to smithereens with good reasoning. Is extremely aggressive in his reads. He is either town, or playing mafia like I do.
Very suspicious of imallison.
Thinks Xatalos is town. Calls out lurkers.
Says he's patient to allow noobs to get used to the game.
Takes it upon himself to police the thread.
Says he's "defending" Dittert, but is actually smothering him. Seems a bit panicked in his response to a complete noob accusing him, especially given how bad the accusation was. Maybe this accusation is unfair. He does address Dittert's points, but in a very sarcastic and derisive manner.
His post @BroodKing is ultra-defensive.
Is very honest in his reply to the case I made against him. However, his case against broodking is weak.
Defense against dittert: appeal to authority. However, the rest is solid.
Explains his playstyle and it is very different to mine. Town defending town seems weird.
Bad, vague case against KB. Voices suspicions of HiroPro and imallison.
Rolls with the punches, seems willing to learn, assuming he's town. In general, I like his defense before he goes all emo. Even with the emo shit, he stays fairly calm. He overemphasises how he's dead. I think scum might be more aggressive in this situation, but wifom here.
Disagrees strongly with yomi and needs heavy convincing to vote for him.
Seems good at describing the game, but is passive in hunting scum.
Finally suspects someone again: HiroPro.
Thinks the case by HiroPro on Xata is "fine".
Lots of wifom. Brings up yomi "knowing" willz is town.
Makes an interesting post about how he is STILL convinced that Dittert is newbie town. How the heck does he know this?
Wishy washy on the Hiro/Xatalos/Dittert situation. Votes HiroPro for information
Couple of nothing posts.
Voices possible suspicion of me, because of the failed HiroPro case. Right thing to do. Not much of a tell: mafia would also love to pile suspicion on me.
Holy batcrap. Giant pre-nightkill wifom. Cannot think of a town reason to post this. It is bad analysis at a bad time.
Townomometer: iiii
Scumometer: viii
LAST UPDATE: April 18 @ 05:09
HiroPro:
Responded to pressure vote in a lacadaisical manner (as expected). Pointed out problem with LaL. Made a good, brief post about Xatalos' useless case against ArcticFox. Also points out inconsistent behaviour. Pointed out yomi's OMGUS dodge of the question. However, his filter is pretty much void of any actual opinions. Votes all over the place and a flimsy case on Xatalos.
Soft defends trumpetarm: possible connection?
Starts to get into the spirit of the game around April 13 07:11. Is convinced that Xatalos is town and his case against vonKlaust is good. Maybe too easy, maybe not.
Holy hypocrit. vonKlaust correctly points out the hipocrisy in his argument. Throwing blame around and hoping it sticks?
Soft defense of Dittert?
Scrambles to cover his tracks on the hipocrisy argument.
Scum read on broodking... in a post comparing the three. The bandwagon was already gone by this point. CLASSIC mafia ploy.
Makes a decent case on xatalos and votes. Maybe trying to sort out dittert's mess. Does not make much sense if dittert is town.
Could still be very noob town.
DEAD town.
Townometer: i
Scumometer: iiii
yomi:
Points out how bad the discussion is. Fat load of nothing. Lurking? Dropped in 8 minutes after Xata called him out. Suspicious of Xata and Brood for vague reasons. Wow, made a fubar post @April 13 2012 01:12. Thinks accusing people in every post is townie behaviour.
Seems a bit panicked. Also, defense of Dittert by ArcticFox? More like an OMGUS to dodge the question. Lashing out like a madman...
BroodKing is suspicious of his top 3 list where he doesn't follow the ranking. I disagree with that read, he's just listing 3 mafia members. Happen to be the most suspected player and two lurkers (arcticfox, hiropro, dittert). Easy picks.
Throws some suspicion at HiroPro.
Gets into an OMGUS with Dittert. Dittert and Yomi both scum seems increasingly unlikely.
Yomi buddies willz. Willz looking townie at this point, so who knows.
Something weird with yomi defending his defense of willz. Not a tell, just weird.
Soft accusation of Dittert. Later turns into a hard accusation.
Is less willing than willz to just roll over and die.
Lies about being the first to suspect Brood. His post is a throwaway that could have meant anything.
Seems increasingly unlikely that Yomi is on the scumteam with Dittert or HiroPro. Is reluctant to say Xata is mafia.
Goes back and forth poking holes in Xatalos' logic. Not much use either way.
I think Xata catches too much flak for misunderstanding Yomi. It is really easy to misunderstand. Who drives this point home?
Finally. Yomi makes a post suspecting HiroPro and Dittert (been harping on them all game). His post makes some sense. I would not expect a connection case like this from a mafia member, it's too risky.
Claims activity, but does nothing.
Makes a value-based judgment call between Xatalos and Dittert. No scumhunting, just utility.
Alarmbell? When going back to my case, seems to have completely forgotten his earlier suspicion of HiroPro. Not sure what to make of this.
Hmmm... while suspicion of HiroPro is justified, possibly suspicious that he made the case. Specifically his later lack of commitment to it? Investigate further.
Thinks Xata is scum.
Pointless speculation about mafia influencing the lynch.
Townometer: ii
Scumometer: iii
Xatalos:
Posts a trumped up case on ArcticFox. Null read so far: I understand where he's coming from, but I disagree with his reasoning.
Throws suspicion on imallison for similar trumped up reasons.
Xatalos posts too much fluff. Calls out lurkers. Is very active and seems to want to move discussion forward. Holy crackerjack his response to me is bad. Blending in much? Reads on Xatalos all over the map. Gone through his filter. Getting an overall townie vibe if I consider his posts in isolation. Wordy, overeager, but townie.
Filter is gigantically long. Lot of back and forth with Yomi. Null read.
Too much wifom.
Posts everything that comes to his mind. This seems like a townie thing to do, but is really clogging up the thread.
Playstyle completely different from Got mafia. Not a big fan of meta-arguments, but only thing I have on Xatalos so far is that he is wildly different from Xata.
Posts why he's town. Shouldn't be necessary, but he makes a decent amount of sense.
Case on willz is so/so. At least cases are improving. Activity is also improving. Tries to engage in discussion without waffling too much at the end of N2.
Townometer: iii
Scumometer: ii
LAST UPDATE: April 16 @ 22:50
imallison: fat load of nothing posts. Seems pretty clueless. Buddying people, mainly Xatalos. Posts a case on Trumpetarn which is not bad, but picking on an inactive noobie is pretty easy. Still buddying Xatalos.
Many more nothing posts. Makes a case against Trumpetarn for nothing.
Same as Hiro... makes a baddish case against Brood. Either because he's town and believes it, or because he's scum and wants to seal the deal.
Makes a good list during the night. Note the town read on Arctic tho. Soft defense on HiroPro?
Is very scared of a vig shot...
Posts a lot more sheeping. Definitely soft defending HiroPro. Also soft defending Yomi.
Good case against Xatalos, who is currently the prime for lynching. No read there.
Points out an error in my thinking. Seems townie to be thinking along <--- especially given that Hiro flipped town: bandwagoning would've been easier as scum.
Makes a long case comparing HiroPro and Xata. It makes sense. Votes Hiro in the end.
Calls for a case from funcnode: suspicion without reasons is bad!
An answer to my question relies on wifom. Later responds briefly with his current reads. I didn't call him out, so volunteered the info. Improving posting style since start of game.
Scumometer: ii
Townometer: iii
LAST UPDATE: April 18 @ 05:50
trumpetarn/funcnode: excellent response to my light prodding. Like his explanation of the Xatalos suspicion. Clueless townie? Read his filter in isolation. Pretty damned useless.
Funcnode's list is a sheep. Null read. Placing final nail in Xatalos's coffin?
Identifies the negative aspects of Xatalos' posting. Post is valid.
Defends his list as a non-sheep list. Makes some valid points. The list had minor novelty
Seems to like the HiroPro-Dittert---IMALLISON connection that Xatalos invented (don't understand it).
I like the "I need convincing"-stance from a playstyle point of view. Not sure if this is townie or not, though.
Suspects imallison. Look into this more? Would like to hear a longer case than the list-post summary.
Analysing emotions. "for fucks sake" seems genuine? I am not sure I like this post, but it's definitely a novel and interesting way of looking at things.
The rest of the post is a long list of happenings from funcnode's perspective. I am not sure what to think of it right now: it definitely gives more to read, so that's good.
Hrmmm, I don't understand the defense of Willz post. Regardless of alignment this was a bad post. Is happy on the willz defense, so if willz is scum, is a good option for scumbuddy. Null read in general, but liking wifom is very strange.
Townometer: i
Scumometer: i
LAST UPDATE April 18 @ 06:25
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On April 20 2012 06:14 KharadBanar wrote:
I don't mean you're afraid to say your opinion, but afraid of being lynched. Yes I know a townie would also be afraid in that situation but I'd hope you'd think first.
Seriously... You even outright admit that anyone would feel pressured/afraid while being lynched. How does that make my overall playstyle "afraid"?
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On April 20 2012 06:23 KharadBanar wrote:
The main reason why I don't think of willz as that likely scum anymore is that he actively helped me defend myself and get out of Dittert's fake accusation when he could have easily switched his vote over to me and more or less assured a scum victory if any townie had taken the bait and voted for me.
No scum would have ever done that. Not even Dittert. They would have thrown their victory away.
That logic is so horrible it hurts. I was the first to mention why Dittert's claim wasn't genuine, and I didn't definitely vote for you or even think about doing that. Willz not voting for you either makes me Mafia exactly how?
Willz, let me quote this as to why I am town, since time is running short:
On April 17 2012 04:30 Xatalos wrote:
Why Am I Town?
I'm the first to admit I have had many faults, the greatest of which are these:
- Tunnel Vision: ignoring a lot of stuff, especially alternative explanations for events (such as yomi voting for Willz to save himself not being a Mafia-specific action)
- Confirmation Bias: focusing on proving myself right more than on finding the truth (I had a pretty hard time letting go off my ArcticFox suspicions, although my reasons for suspecting him weren't very good to begin with)
- Paranoia: mentioning every little suspicious detail from pretty much every player so far (I even mentioned specifically Acrofales for lurking the Day 1 lynch, although he was far from the only lurker in that situation and wasn't even otherwise suspicious at all)
- Stupidity: misunderstanding rules, posts and even pronouns (my greatest moment of stupidity was thinking yomi claimed doctor while he was just talking in general)
Through these faults I have caused anti-town atmosphere, which is an understandable reason to believe I would be Mafia. But I want you to take a moment and consider: is that the only explanation?
- Tunnel Vision is not really a Mafia trait, since Mafia would be happy to lynch any townie, not a specific townie
- Confirmation Bias is plausibly a Mafia trait, since Mafia know the roles of everyone and thus want to prove themselves right instead of finding the truth
- Paranoia is not really a Mafia trait, since Mafia don't have any need to be suspicious of their fellow players or to gather too much attention
- Stupidity is neither a town or Mafia trait
In conclusion, only one of the reasons for my sometimes anti-town play is a Mafia trait. Even so, it's not exclusively a Mafia trait, but rather a trait of a person emotional about something (in this case, lynching Mafia).
Now, what pro-town have I done to redeem these faults?
- Activity: I have posted a lot, more than anyone else - perhaps not as much useful content as Acrofales or KharadBanar, but definitely among the most even in that category
- Transparency: I have been like an open book, giving my opinion on everything without hesitation, never being afraid of suspicious slips or being proved wrong in the end
- Focus on Mafia Hunting: most of my posts consist of accusing a player, noticing suspicious behaviour, giving my Mafia reads, demanding explanations, demanding activity or analyzing possible Mafia&Mafia / town & Mafia / town & town interactions between two players
All of my anti-town plays are (at least somewhat) explainable from a town perspective, but are these pro-town plays explainable from a Mafia perspective?
- Activity is definitely not a Mafia trait: Mafia would prefer to fly under the radar and plan inside their own chat, not to be on the spotlight of the discussion all the time
- Transparency is the opposite of a Mafia trait: Mafia would never want to give more information and thoughts to the discussion than necessary
- Focus on Mafia Hunting is again the opposite of a Mafia trait: Mafia want to delay and distract Mafia hunting, not to focus on it in their own posting
So none of these pro-town plays are really explainable from a Mafia perspective. Of course Mafia would love to look as pro-town as possible, but not at the cost of losing the game because of it. Willingness to establish your innocence at the cost of advancing town agenda and probably having to bus your teammates along the way is not strong Mafia play - it's ineffective Mafia play.
And okay, I'm ready to vote for Willz as well. It just seemed more likely to get Dittert lynched since imallinson and yomi also voted for him (and we'd need 4 votes anyway, and Dittert is 100% Mafia). So... Here goes.
##Unvote
##Vote: Willz22912
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yomi, it looks like you agree with me. Since apparently this is back to me/Willz (although Dittert is 100% Mafia), you need to vote for him. Also, vonKlaust, are you even there? And KharadBanar, please reconsider.
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On April 20 2012 06:23 KharadBanar wrote:
The main reason why I don't think of willz as that likely scum anymore is that he actively helped me defend myself and get out of Dittert's fake accusation when he could have easily switched his vote over to me and more or less assured a scum victory if any townie had taken the bait and voted for me.
No scum would have ever done that. Not even Dittert. They would have thrown their victory away.
Besides, if you say no scum would have ever done that, then it means I can't be scum either. Your logic makes my head explode.
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On April 20 2012 06:36 KharadBanar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2012 06:32 Xatalos wrote:
That logic is so horrible it hurts. I was the first to mention why Dittert's claim wasn't genuine, and I didn't definitely vote for you or even think about doing that. Willz not voting for you either makes me Mafia exactly how?
I have this to say about that: Show nested quote +On April 20 2012 04:14 willz22912 wrote:
I am calling for all the real town to vote Xatalos instead now, including KB, to show that Dittert was being bussed by his teammates Xatalos and imallinson. The game is going to go on regardless if Dittert gets bussed by his teammates, the only information we will get is who gets shot N3, but gleaning information based on who Mafia shoot is completely WIFOM for town. Show nested quote +On April 20 2012 04:27 willz22912 wrote:
@ KB if you agree with my reasoning, please change your vote off Dittert and give town a chance to lynch Xatalos instead.
He actively gave me a chance to prove that I was not the scum in that situation by being willing to actually scumhunt. That's what I was referring to.
WTF...... Really. THAT'S why you think he is town? I did much more by saying Dittert was fake claiming and that you were town. All Willz did was to direct you into lynching a townie.
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EPT
