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At lot happened, these are my thoughts:
Therapist is on of the guys that didnt bring much content. As lazin said, he didnt respond to the "post more" postings from various others. Now he's under the gun and suddenly claims blue.
Not only does he claim blue, but he said he investigated BlueyD and gosse. Gosse is dead, so it wont do much to talk about that. But the "BlueyD is a towny" investigation is the scummiest part.
Lets see what we thought:
Bocki: Therapist and BlueyD scum
Lazin: Therapist and Bocki/BlueyD scum
Nova: Therapist and Bocki/BlueyD scum
BlueyD: Therapist and Bocki scum
Therapist: Nova, Lazin, Bocki scum
BlueyD and me think of each other as scum, I think mainly because we have been over each other the entire game.
Therapist comes up, says he's blue and makes BlueyD inno.
This is my prediction on what scum (therapist/blueyd) thought this will go down this is after I switched to therapist, so 3 votes for therapist, 1 for me)
Therapist told BlueyD to vote for him, to complete the bandwagon
Therapist brings out the "blue"-hammer, makes BlueyD inno and calls Bock/lazin/nova scum.
Therapist hopes that one of us 3 switches votes to whoever but BlueyD (hey, he's inno! and therapist is blue!)
BlueyD switches to that person
Therapist votes that person.
That would make 3 votes and the lynch.
This blue call is too convenient to be true. I know, calling blue at any time is not good and if he really was blue, now would be the time. But calling investigating blueyd before... too convenient. He probably chose these 2 persons because he voted on the days before the night he claims to have investigated. He even brought up the idea of a tactical vote, just to call it "poor play"
On April 08 2012 01:47 Therapist. wrote:
I sure hope it's not scenario 3 as I am also voting for BlueyD. Seems like it'd be poor play to vote for your teammate early unless it's late in the game the person being voted for has been established as 100% scum.
On April 09 2012 11:04 Therapist. wrote:
I don't believe BlueyD to be mafia. I strongly disagree with bandwagoning onto him immediately. Instead, I would question the motives behind Bocki and LazinCajun INSTANTLY throwing down votes on BlueyD.
I clearly stated my motives, Lazin as well. So I dont know what you want to question about them. Maybe its just to try to produce confusion (hence the CAPITALIZATION).
I'll post more if I notice something else.
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Bocki is so focused and aggressive. There's no reason for him to not even want to look at anybody else. He's tunnel visioning his weak case on BlueyD and myself without even BOTHERING to look at the others. This guy is my top pick for scum and my vote goes to him for Day 3.
##Vote: Bocki
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Things getting complicated… >.<
I’m inclined to believe Therapist’s explanation because it’s more consistent with the rest of his actions than him being mafia. I also have yet another attack on Bocki…
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Therapist’s behavior = Day 2: Puts his vote on me, seems very willing to let me die. Day 3: Defends me hard.
Blue Therapist option: He DT checked me night 2 and is telling the truth. That is plausible: I was (and still am) suspected scum, so I would be a good pick for that check. Of course if he’s blue, then the red BlueyD option is entirely unthinkable.
Red Therapist, Green BlueyD option: If I’m green and he’s red, the day 3 behavior makes little sense. He would be putting himself at risk by defending me hard, a very strange thing to do if lynching me wins him the game.
Both Red option: Here, it’s his day 2 behavior that makes no sense. There would have been no reason to actively bus me at that point, and it would’ve been an incredibly risky move to plan to switch his D2 vote away from me if I needed some saving at the end. Only reason I still live, remember, is that Gossemerr (of all people) switched his vote.
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Bocki’s analysis is suspicious, again. A good part of his post reads like a conspiracy theory, so I’ll concentrate on the rest of his attack, which is essentially one paragraph:
(1) This blue call is too convenient to be true. I know, calling blue at any time is not good and if he really was blue, now would be the time. (2) But calling investigating blueyd before... too convenient. (3) He probably chose these 2 persons because he voted on the days before the night he claims to have investigated.
1. Contradictory. Bocki says now is effectively the best time for a blue to claim… But one did claim, and Bocki just dismisses it as “too convenient to be true”! Bocki doesn’t even seriously consider that Therapist may be blue. Why?
2. Why is this dismissed as “too convenient” too? If Bocki agrees that I looked scummy – and he really can’t disagree with that – then he also has to agree that I was a good DT check, no?
3. The whole point of being a cop is scumhunting, so cops check those who are most suspicious for them – often the same people they voted for, if they haven’t been lynched. He’s speculating again where there’s a much simpler explanation.
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To Nova and Lazin: I thought you two were townies, but if you’re ready to consider the possibility that Therapist is being truthful, you’ll have to also accept the idea that you two might not be on the same side after all.
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tldr: I have no way to be 100% sure that Therapist is telling the truth, but I’m leaning towards him being blue because it makes the most sense. Meanwhile, Bocki just dismisses that possibility with no analysis, sticking hard to his ‘convictions’. Which one looks the scummiest? Well…
##Unvote: Therapist
##Vote: Bocki
There’s my answer.
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On April 10 2012 08:29 BlueyD wrote:
Therapist’s behavior = Day 2: Puts his vote on me, seems very willing to let me die. Day 3: Defends me hard.
Blue Therapist option: He DT checked me night 2 and is telling the truth. That is plausible: I was (and still am) suspected scum, so I would be a good pick for that check. Of course if he’s blue, then the red BlueyD option is entirely unthinkable.
Red Therapist, Green BlueyD option: If I’m green and he’s red, the day 3 behavior makes little sense. He would be putting himself at risk by defending me hard, a very strange thing to do if lynching me wins him the game.
Both Red option: Here, it’s his day 2 behavior that makes no sense. There would have been no reason to actively bus me at that point, and it would’ve been an incredibly risky move to plan to switch his D2 vote away from me if I needed some saving at the end. Only reason I still live, remember, is that Gossemerr (of all people) switched his vote.
This could easily be explained like this instead:
Red BlueyD, red Therapist option -- I point out a potential connection between you two based on day 1 votes. Day 2 you split your votes to hide mafia ties, and you're not really in any danger of dying since after Gossemer's vote (1.5 hours before the deadline, plenty of time for therapist to switch votes and save you) puts Era into the noose.
WIFOMy? A bit, but completely plausible since I thoroughly expected the mafia to split their Day 2 votes after my voting behavior post.
Bocki’s analysis is suspicious, again. A good part of his post reads like a conspiracy theory, so I’ll concentrate on the rest of his attack, which is essentially one paragraph: Show nested quote + (1) This blue call is too convenient to be true. I know, calling blue at any time is not good and if he really was blue, now would be the time. (2) But calling investigating blueyd before... too convenient. (3) He probably chose these 2 persons because he voted on the days before the night he claims to have investigated. 1. Contradictory. Bocki says now is effectively the best time for a blue to claim… But one did claim, and Bocki just dismisses it as “too convenient to be true”! Bocki doesn’t even seriously consider that Therapist may be blue. Why? 2. Why is this dismissed as “too convenient” too? If Bocki agrees that I looked scummy – and he really can’t disagree with that – then he also has to agree that I was a good DT check, no? 3. The whole point of being a cop is scumhunting, so cops check those who are most suspicious for them – often the same people they voted for, if they haven’t been lynched. He’s speculating again where there’s a much simpler explanation.
1) Bocki never said now is the best time for a blue to claim (???). Quote a post if I missed something please.
2) Of course you were a good DT check, but that doesn't help your case one way or the other. It provides Therapist with an explanation for his behavior if he's town, but it provides him with a cool explanation of his behavior if he's mafia too.
3) Again, this is no argument for Therapist being town. It could easily be interpreted either way.
To Nova and Lazin: I thought you two were townies, but if you’re ready to consider the possibility that Therapist is being truthful, you’ll have to also accept the idea that you two might not be on the same side after all.
tldr: I have no way to be 100% sure that Therapist is telling the truth, but I’m leaning towards him being blue because it makes the most sense. Meanwhile, Bocki just dismisses that possibility with no analysis, sticking hard to his ‘convictions’. Which one looks the scummiest? Well…
##Unvote: Therapist
##Vote: Bocki
There’s my answer.
To answer this -- based on the voting from earlier today, I believe switching my vote to Bocki would be a critical mistake for the town. At least one of BlueyD and Bocki is likely town. If both Bluey and Bocki are town, switching my vote is a mistake. If the town is Bocki, it makes no sense to switch my vote.
If the BlueyD is town, Bocki is red, and therapist is town as you'd like me to believe, then who is the other mafia? That leaves either me or nova. You'll have to do MUCH better that making a vague "Maybe you two aren't on the same side" statement. Vague statements like this are pretty scummy. This also fits the way the votes lie right now -- if therapist is scum, then Bocki is innocent, leaving BlueyD as the other scum.
Although Therapist is my best scum read, I am not 100% convinced that I'm right. However, BlueyD or Therapist need to make a specific case against Nova, myself, or both of us if you want to convince somebody to switch their vote, and make sure that it is good. DAMN good. Otherwise, this last statement just looks like a statement to try to pull Nova and I simultaneously to mislynch without any real content.
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On April 10 2012 05:56 Bocki wrote:
Therapist hopes that one of us 3 switches votes to whoever but BlueyD (hey, he's inno! and therapist is blue!)
BlueyD switches to that person
Therapist votes that person.
Well, looks like my prediction came true, just that the order switched. But I think this is mostly due to therapist seeing that he cant wait for someone else and has to start the vote himself.
On April 10 2012 07:02 Therapist. wrote:
Bocki is so focused and aggressive. There's no reason for him to not even want to look at anybody else. He's tunnel visioning his weak case on BlueyD and myself without even BOTHERING to look at the others.
I said numerous times that I may be too focused on BlueyD, but I also made comments about others. I didnt make a case against anyone else because I didnt see anything (which makes kind of sense since until now, only town/blue has died). I didnt see anything about you because you posted only a few times and to be true, you slipped my mind. But the cases against you were good, and they fit my town-reads (lazin/nova) so I have no reason to doubt that you and BlueyD are mafia. Specially after both of your recent votes.
On April 10 2012 08:29 BlueyD wrote:
There would have been no reason to actively bus me at that point, and it would’ve been an incredibly risky move to plan to switch his D2 vote away from me if I needed some saving at the end. Only reason I still live, remember, is that Gossemerr (of all people) switched his vote.
.. that is unless he would have switched his vote. He had time enough and could have gone with the same reason that gosse wrote.
On April 10 2012 08:29 BlueyD wrote:
1. Contradictory. Bocki says now is effectively the best time for a blue to claim… But one did claim, and Bocki just dismisses it as “too convenient to be true”! Bocki doesn’t even seriously consider that Therapist may be blue. Why?
2. Why is this dismissed as “too convenient” too? If Bocki agrees that I looked scummy – and he really can’t disagree with that – then he also has to agree that I was a good DT check, no?
3. The whole point of being a cop is scumhunting, so cops check those who are most suspicious for them – often the same people they voted for, if they haven’t been lynched. He’s speculating again where there’s a much simpler explanation.
Like lazin said: I didnt say that this is the best time to call blue, I only said that, beeing under the gun, is the only time to call blue. And I would consider it more or would even believe it, IF there wasnt that convenient truth that he investigated you to make BlueyD a 100% Towner. That is what I meant with "too convenient". Because if you too are maf, you only need to get 1 out of 2 (since I am not going to vote myself) to vote for me. Thats why therapist voted me instead of lazin or nova. It is easier for BlueyD to say "yeah, I thought that the whole time" if they go for me. Right now, I'm the weakest target because lazin and nova are pretty convinced of each other to be green. I am in question of beeing scum, so it's naturally to go for me, altough the cases against me were vague at best.
On April 10 2012 08:29 BlueyD wrote:
Meanwhile, Bocki just dismisses that possibility with no analysis, sticking hard to his ‘convictions’. Which one looks the scummiest? Well…
This is funny if you think about it. I voted for BlueyD on D2 and started the vote for BlueyD on D3. If I would stay with my 'conviction' I would keep my vote for BlueyD, and suddenly, its a 2-2-1 situation. Wouldnt that make me look less scummy? Since I wouldnt be working together with my "partner" but go on a solo mission? I choose not to stay on you, because as Lazin said: The town needs to stick together to win this.
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On April 10 2012 13:28 LazinCajun wrote:
This could easily be explained like this instead:
Red BlueyD, red Therapist option -- I point out a potential connection between you two based on day 1 votes. Day 2 you split your votes to hide mafia ties, and you're not really in any danger of dying since after Gossemer's vote (1.5 hours before the deadline, plenty of time for therapist to switch votes and save you) puts Era into the noose.
I overlooked that you wrote this, but it's good that we both thought of it like this.
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Lazin said:
Red BlueyD, red Therapist option -- I point out a potential connection between you two based on day 1 votes. Day 2 you split your votes to hide mafia ties, and you're not really in any danger of dying since after Gossemer's vote (1.5 hours before the deadline, plenty of time for therapist to switch votes and save you) puts Era into the noose.
If we're both red and we did this, then that means the plan included either a) bussing me while other lynch targets were available (era) in a game with only 2 reds, or b) therapist switching his vote to last-minute save me, which would have aroused instant suspicion and provided a much clearer connection case than both of us voting together from the start. I repeat: Option B, which is what you and Bocki both think is true, would be extremely stupid play. In a situation where therapist and I are the reds, this option leads straight to our consecutive lynches. It just can’t be true.
Lazin said:
1) Bocki never said now is the best time for a blue to claim (???). Quote a post if I missed something please.
Bocki said:
(1) This blue call is too convenient to be true. I know, calling blue at any time is not good and if he really was blue, now would be the time.
I interpret this to mean “we generally want blues to stay hidden most of the time, so it’s understandable that if Therapist’s claim is true, it only comes up now that he’s on the block: before was a bad time to claim, and after would be too late, therefore now is the best moment”. So, yeah, Bocki dismisses the possibility as “too convenient”, then admits it is consistent with good blue play in the next sentence. Scummy, scummy, scummy.
You missed the goal of points 2 and 3 here: they are meant to attack Bocki, not to defend Therapist. I’m entirely aware that these do not make Therapist look more town-aligned, and that both explanations (red and blue) are an adequate explanation for these parts of his behavior. That’s the whole point I’m trying to make in that part of my post: Bocki never even considers the blue Therapist possibility. He just says “nah, can’t be”, and offers no explanation except speculations which start with what he has to prove: He assumes from the start that Therapist and I are red. This is tunnel vision.
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Lazin, that little message to Nova and you was mostly meant to not just rely on what the other is saying – you’ve both looked town-aligned to each other (and to me) for a while and openly said so, but neither of you is actually confirmed.
I feel you’re taking us away from the immediate issue, which is “which of Therapist and Bocki is scum?” You’re asking me to find all the mafia right now when all we need for today is one.
I don’t have a case against either of you right now and I have a busy day today (will be back home too late for the lynch; have access to a computer at my lab but will probably not be playing mafia much), so I don’t think I’ll have time to make the case you want me to do now.
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Here’s what it comes down to for me now:
- My read on Therapist is 90% blue.
- My read on Bocki is 90% red.
- This leaves one of Nova and Lazin as scum and one as townie. Do I have a case on either? No, and in all likelihood I won’t today, but all we need right now is one red.
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Okay, a lot has happened since i had to go last night.
Therapists call, Bockis ideas relating to it, BlueyD's, Lazins....
So heres where i stand.
I was looking into a BlueyD/Therapist connection. And, it wasnt too far fetched, except for how Therapist went against blueyD on day 2.
But then i noticed something. Both Therapist and BlueyD had said things multiple times about how it was unlikely a mafia would bus their own on day 2. However it was thought that they could be a connection, and they started saying that a bus was very unlikely.
Wouldnt it be convenient if therapist was bussing BlueyD to try to get in good standing, and then if the vote was swingable, which it was, Therapist could go off of him, and if not, Therapist was in excellent standing. and then theres the fact that the two people that Therapist had 'checked' were BlueyD, and a dead guy (who Therapist happened to agree with.) IF Therapist and blueyD were mafia, this is smart. Its also convenient for explaining a bus. Choose ally as inno, and choose dead person that you read as inno. looks perfect eh?
Bocki has really made good posts today, and Therapist and BlueyD pretty much acted exactly as Bocki said. and Therapist uses exactly what bocki says again in the next post, CAPITALIZATION for influence and possibly trying to confuse us further. Lazin has also made good arguments against some of the posts.
In conclusion? I think that with Bocki and Lazin, i am voting with the town. It certainly feels like it, and seeing as WIFOM on this blue call can go either way, i think it is in my best interest to vote with the two people i think are town. just like Lazin, i am not 100% certain, nor can i be after all of this. But unless i can be convinced soon that both Bocki and Lazin are scum, i think my vote will stay in agreement with theirs.
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You say that I'm trying to change the issue by focusing on nova, but then a couple lines later you say that your own reads are only consistent with the game state if one of me/nova is red. You're asking me to sweep that critical fact under the rug, which I just can't logically do without some modicum of evidence of Nova. (Who is avoiding the issue?)
I haven't been able to come up with any good evidence against Nova. The only thing I have against him so far is that he has made mistakes, but the whole town has made mistakes the entire game! I really can't find anything in his filter that makes me think he's red.
However, I am reasonable. Bluey's interpretation of Therapist's behavior are probably the simplest, although I do think my own are plausible. It would be much easier if Therapist hadn't been so damn lurky all game long.
I am willing to accept that my perspective on Nova could be skewed. However, somebody would need to be convince me.
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^ Clearly, the "you" in this post refers to BlueyD. nova ninja'ed his post in between bluey's and mine.
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Wrote some stuff during lunch break:
Lazin: I don’t know which of you and Nova is town and which is scum. I don’t have a case prepared, and I’m at work.
Therapist: Since I can’t do it, try to look through the Nova and Lazin filters and make a case…
Nova: What’s the advantage of a soft-bus with possibility of last-hour save? There’s none! Last-hour save from therapist on me would be incredibly suspicious given his branding me scummy. And the way Therapist ‘bussed’ me hardly makes him look more pro-town; he wasn’t the one making the attacks against me. I also have to disagree with your assessment of Bocki’s “good posts” – he’s predicting what I’ll do correctly to gain credit - that part works because as red I'd do roughly the same thing - and then calling said behavior scummy even though it's not. He hasn’t even taken a look at the blue possibility.
Bocki: You’re scum! :-p Still, take a serious look at the blue possibility. Just for fun.
Lunch break over. Be back in about 2 hours.
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On April 10 2012 23:16 BlueyD wrote:
I interpret this to mean “we generally want blues to stay hidden most of the time, so it’s understandable that if Therapist’s claim is true, it only comes up now that he’s on the block: before was a bad time to claim, and after would be too late, therefore now is the best moment”. So, yeah, Bocki dismisses the possibility as “too convenient”, then admits it is consistent with good blue play in the next sentence. Scummy, scummy, scummy.
Basically you are saying: Whatever I would have said about the blue claim, it would make me look scummy. From your perspective, therapist is 90% blue (I'll get to that later) which means that (since you say you are green), 2 out of Lazin/Nova/Bocki are red. Yet you did not post any red-things about neither of the other two (only saying that both somehow agreed that they are green... no other read or analysis). So I seem to be the only red... That would be a surprise for all of us I bet :D
On April 10 2012 23:16 BlueyD wrote:
You missed the goal of points 2 and 3 here: they are meant to attack Bocki, not to defend Therapist. I’m entirely aware that these do not make Therapist look more town-aligned, and that both explanations (red and blue) are an adequate explanation for these parts of his behavior. That’s the whole point I’m trying to make in that part of my post: Bocki never even considers the blue Therapist possibility. He just says “nah, can’t be”, and offers no explanation except speculations which start with what he has to prove: He assumes from the start that Therapist and I are red. This is tunnel vision.
I considered that he was blue. I said that his position was the only position to make sense to call blue. And I say the "but" again: ...., but making you green from his investigation just fits too good into scum play! To write some percentage points from my view about possible investigations:
2 dead people: 50% chance. (From the rules, this would be possible, but very unlikely)
1 dead, lazin: 80% chance (since I am pretty sure that he is green, based on my own analysis and of others)
1 dead, nova: 80% chance (since I am pretty sure that he is green, based on my own analysis and of others)
1 dead, bocki: 100% chance (of course)
1 dead, blueyd: 0% chance (based on the reads from several people about a possible connection between you two)
2 alive people: 0% chance. If he would have gotten both red in his "investigations", he could have just said so and the town would have won, even if he died. Then we could have seen that he was blue and accepted both of his investigations.
On the "he assumes from the start..": No I didnt. I assumed that you are red for a few days, but therapist slipped my mind (as I already said). But after the analysis from Nova and myself looking through his posts, I agreed that he is scummy.
On April 10 2012 23:16 BlueyD wrote:
Lazin, that little message to Nova and you was mostly meant to not just rely on what the other is saying – you’ve both looked town-aligned to each other (and to me) for a while and openly said so, but neither of you is actually confirmed.
No one can be actually confirmed as anything at this point. The only way to be a confirmed green/red in this game is after the person dies or if the sane cop confirmes you and then dies (to confirm that he was indeed the sane cop). So everything is based on reads from the postings and voting behaviour.
On April 10 2012 23:16 BlueyD wrote:
Here’s what it comes down to for me now:
- My read on Therapist is 90% blue.
- My read on Bocki is 90% red.
- This leaves one of Nova and Lazin as scum and one as townie. Do I have a case on either? No, and in all likelihood I won’t today, but all we need right now is one red.
I know why you think that I'm red (well.. to be true not completely, but okay). But I would like to know why you believe Therapist in his blue claim so much. Only because he called you green? As opposed to me, you haven't written an analysis of his blue claim and why you support it so much. To say it in your words:
On April 10 2012 23:16 BlueyD wrote:
Scummy, scummy, scummy.
On April 11 2012 03:01 BlueyD wrote:
Therapist: Since I can’t do it, try to look through the Nova and Lazin filters and make a case…
Again: Why the belief in therapist? Like Lazin said, there is not much to read from his posts, yet you seem pretty determined that he is blue.
Lazin:
On April 11 2012 02:27 LazinCajun wrote:
It would be much easier if Therapist hadn't been so damn lurky all game long.
Exactly. This makes it hard to take the blue claim any more serious than I take it now.
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BlueyD and myself are town and we know it. There's one other townie among the three of you guys. Don't let yourself be misled by the others. Two of Bocki/Lazin/Nova will not change their mind and will continue to pressure against Bluey and myself despite all evidence presented. So I strongly strongly strongly urge the townsman among you to change your vote. You are in a unique position of knowing exactly who the two mafia are. If you assume Bluey and myself are innocent, who are those two? You know. You can vote for one of them, then tell us who the other one is tomorrow. Town can still win this. It's all on you.
Anyway, Bocki attacks my claim that I am blue. He says that the fact that I suspected BlueyD so hard and now proclaim him innocent is massively scummy. He thinks that my blue claim was planned from the start and that I am scum for it. It makes sense for me investigate the two people I voted on - they were the people I thought were most suspicious at the time. You recognize this, however, you don't address the fact that Gossemerr was EXECUTED! If my plan were in fact to prove BlueyD's innocence by roleclaiming cop, why would I choose to MURDER someone who I executed? Would it not make more sense to leave my second "investigation" alive so that he could say "Oh yeah he identified me correctly" and add to my credibility as a blue? It makes no sense for me to be mafia and kill Gossemerr. I am the Sane Cop and my statements are true. If I wanted to lie, I'd just pick someone else who was alive.
And once again I'd like to point out that he doesn't even consider that my statement might be the truth. He immediately just tries to debunk it. At this point in the game, he should be interested in doing a deeper analysis on the other members of the game instead of blindly swearing that I am scum. At the very least he could make a case for why he thinks the others are INNOCENT. Instead he just continues to attack me, trying to make sure that attention doesn't get redistributed in the last moments. If Bocki IS NOT scum, then it is very very poor town play to be so uninterested in information.
Bocki says himself that he's too focused on BlueyD and I. However, he STILL refuses to make any case against or for anyone else. If he's recognizing his own error in play, why would he not make an effort to correct it and post reads and cases for others? This is pointless.
Another thing to point out about Lazin is that he and Bocki have been somewhat at each others' throats all game, mildly attacking each other. Now at the end, they do not offer any suspicion of each other whatsoever. In fact, they are working very much together to get me or BlueyD lynched. If I were to stake the game on a vote, it would be Bocki, but Lazin would be close behind at this point after reading through their filters again.
Again, I urge the innocent among Bocki/Lazin/Nova to come forward and place his vote! If Bocki is guilty, place your vote alongside us and bring us a step closer to ending this game. A red pull should prove my innocence and allow us to win the game on the next round. We can do it!
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Two hours until day ends.
Current votes:
BlueyD (0) Bocki, Lazincajun
Therapist. (3) Nova_Terra, Bocki, Lazincajun
Bocki (2) BlueyD, Therapist.
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Hm, I just realized that bocki and nova voted together day 1, then voted separately day 2 just as therapist / blueyD voted together day 1, then separate day 2, so I can't really take anything out of that analysis.
Therapist I question why you're still looking at Bocki rather than following the discussion and making a case against Nova or myself to get the other to flip their vote.
I've made it abundantly clear that I'm not 100% convinced of Nova's innocence, and that I would be willing to swap my vote with a good argument against him. Ignoring my request to make a case against Nova is just bad play, whether you're mafia OR town. It makes me think that either
1) You didn't read the latest discussion before voting
2) You can't come up with a good case against nova because he actually is town and has acted as such all game, or
3) You think I'm scum, in which case you should be making a case against me in order to get nova to change votes, and it's still bad play either way.
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Yeah, i'm kind of waiting for a *great* case against lazin to be made. If that happens, there is a good chance that i might change my vote. Otherwise, i still think that i am voting with the two other town members left in the game.
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I only have 20 minutes.
Lazin if you're town you have enough info to see that Bocki is a lot scummier than therapist.
Both were inactive at the start but therapist gave us a plausible reason for his behavior, Bocki has not.
When Bocki was asked to contribute he was almost angry about being pulled from the shadows.
Bocki never had an original thought, he didn't start the attack on me and he didn't start the attack on therapist. Therapist basically started the defense of me, with a turnaround that can only be explained if therapist and I are both retard scum, or uncoordinated scum, or town-aligned.
Bocki freaking scumslipped!
If you're townie, are you seriously going to let all of this slip because you're convinced Nova is townie?
Don't you wonder why Goss is dead instead of you and Nova? Might it not be because one of you is scum and the other is scumshield?
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This is realistically my last post of the game:
- If any town dies, game's over.
- If Therapist dies and flips scum, then that's the best framing job I've ever seen, and I won't even try to defend myself because it's useless.
- If somehow Bocki gets lynched and he flips scum, then I'm confirmed town (only 1 mafia left, if it's me then therapist is blue as he says and he checked me so I can't be scum), therapist is hit at night for being a cop, and I'm still gonna have trouble picking between Nova and you. But at least the game goes on.
At least you're reading and considering our posts. Nova just seems to be agreeing with Bocki here.
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I'm out of time. Unless stuff changes, GG scum.
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Nova since you're around (hopefully still around), let me ask you a question:
Why did you switch from saying you dislike connection type cases in an early post to saying that you liked mine? What about it made you change your stance?
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Lazin, which case do you mean? can you quote it for me?
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This one:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=325394¤tpage=12#234
On April 07 2012 14:21 LazinCajun wrote:Everybody is making arguments based on posts, so after doing that I thought I'd take a closer look at voting patterns to see if we're missing anything there. Plus, I tend to be better at logic than reading people, so it made the most sense to analyze votes to me. At first I was a little weary of posting this, since it may tip the mafia off about avoiding suspicious voting patterns. I realized that in order to avoid those suspicious voting patterns, the mafia may end up not ganging up on an innocent in the future, strengthening the town's position anyway, so here goes! Here is my summary of Day 1 voting: --Gossemer votes Lyter: This looks like a pressure vote to get things started. When lyter turns up green, it *may* throw some suspicion on Gossemer, but I didn't think it particularly did. --Nova votes Lyter based on Lyter's lack of posting. No surprise. --Imallinson votes Lyter "seeing as there isn't a better option at the moment" (bandwagony?) --Bocki votes Lyter "Good as any" (bandwagony?) --BlueyD votes Lyter, but encourages him to defend himself --era votes Lyter (repeats nova's reasoning, bandwagony) --Therapist votes Lyter --I hop on the bandwagon for Lyter reluctantly since he still hadn't posted a defense. --Lyter posts, votes Gossemerr --imallinson unvotes lyter, votes me, presumably because i want to "out a blue" (and he turns up blue ) Looking back on it, this could have come of to the mafia as paranoia about somebody outing a blue, and may be why he got killed night 1. --Within 3 minutes of each other, era and therapist unvote lyter and vote gossemerr. --A couple minutes later (very close to the deadline now) BlueyD votes Lyter. Just looking at the order, I found it interesting that era and therapist voted lyter back to back, then switched to gossemerr so quickly. It's likely a coincidence, but an interesting anomaly considering their switch to gossemerr occured within 3 minutes of each other, which could suggest they agreed to something in a PM then voted. This argument is weakened by the fact that they voted close to the deadline (~40 minutes before) when likely lots of people were considering changing their vote and reading the thread. Final Day 1 votes: Gossemerr: era / therapist / lyter(Town) / blueyD Lyter: Gossemer / Nova / Bocki / me LazinCajun: imallinson(Town) If you operate under the assumption that day 1 the mafia will vote together (not necessarily a good assumption! If both gossemer and lyter are truly town, the mafia knew this and would've won no matter who gets lynched, and it may have been beneficial for them to split their votes to defuse suspicion). Looking at the voters who ended up on Lyter: I know that I'm town, and I strongly suspect that Nova is town. Various people have aired their suspicions of both Gossemer and Bocki which I won't repeat here, and this would seem to connect them. Looking at the voters who ended up voting Gossemerr: I argued above that era and therapist seem to be linked as well in swapping to Gossemerr with their strange post timings, but TBH I'm not sure that the mafia would have a strong motivation to switch off of Lyter. In Summary: Based on voting patterns, I believe that either Gossemer and Bocki may be linked as scum, or that a two out of era / therapist / blueyD are linked as scum. Based on the strange post timings, I think it's more likely that era and therapist would be connected than BlueyD. The next thing I plan on doing is going through people's posted suspicions carefully -- at first looking only at who they accuse, not with my own interpretations / suspicions -- and seeing if I can use it to augment this argument.
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EPT
