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Ok First off im just going to go through the thread day by day and see what I find, Luckily this is only 22ish pages.
Day1:
Nova_Terra should immediatly be the focus of everyone because of this:
On April 03 2012 06:19 Nova_Terra wrote:
Ello der BlueyD. <333333
hello everybody! I'm nova, and you may know me as hardcore rager, guy who tilts, scum that beat you last game, (teehee) but this time You will hopefully know me as what i am, Townie .
To start off, I would just like to direct everybody to the mafia guides on the forums. They will at least give you the basic ideas of what is happining or how people are playing. Also, if you have the time, i highly reccomend going through one of our last games to tell peoples play apart from this game (meta). It gives such a HUUUUUGE advantage as you can determine peoples behavior changes very easily from game to game. last game, town almost lynched me due to meta, and should have.
Also, here are 3 terms that werent immediately obvious to me when i first played:
EBWOP: Edit by way of post, as you cant edit you can double post to 'edit'
OMGUS: Oh My God You Suck, pretty much when someone gets defensive and votes based on the aggression coming towards thhem that is considered OMGUS (please correct me if im wrong)
FoS: Finger of suspicion. Used to note that you are suspicious of someone and to direct attention to them.
A Couple other things to note are:
Dont make the mistake i made in my first game and post cases based on connections to other people.it alienates people and seriously, who is going to vote with you when you say that if your suspect flips red they are probably red too?
Dont just go for the "obvious lynch" of a bad player who make like 763784 tells day 1. Last game, i was thanking the heavens (as mafia) that everyone wanted to vote for the two players who were making the most mistakes. as mafia, i was scared to make scumtells and repeatedly went through my posts before i made them to be as safe as possible, and i had my team to remind me of how to act. townies are alone. we have to think for ourselves, and we post more on impulse.
Same goes for lurker lynches. Although i agree with a possible lynch of someone who is getting by unsuspected with a minimal amount of posts, a mafia is much more likely to step up to defend themselves when their name is on the chopping block than a bored townie. I agree with voting to pressure lurkers however, as i was scared to hell whenever i saw a single vote on me.
Now to get content rolling, I would like everyone to post regarding their stances on how we will be lynching day 1. I am for an information lynch over a lurker or "bad" lynch.
So far BlueyD is the most scummy because of how defensively he reacts to people, for instance his comment which implies that era does not know about game concepts. and in response to BlueyD suspecting me, who is more likely to be mafia, mafia last game or town last game. So Bluey is my current suspicion haha xD jk ^^
And hey, even though last game i apparently destroyed time, i still think some sort of soft deadline would be beneficial to getting a collective vote. Maybe 8 hours?
This is the post he "spent 30 minutes on". Its like 15 minutes into the day. Also notice how he directs everyone to the guides, which is good in a newbie game, but then procedes to post stuff found in the guides. He then fills everything with filler and then talks about his suspicion, who really isnt, but kinda is.
This post should send up a red flag. Not a big red flag, but still. All of this could be summed up into like 3 sentences, and it would have been easier to read too.
He then continues to pressure others to post content, but doesnt contribute himself.
I'm just after the first vote count now and I actually have no idea why lyter is being voted for. If this ever happens in a game, you should be concerned. Look who jumped on the wagon with no reasons. Then take that list of people and go back and see if they contributed anything ever. If not you might have found scum.
Annnd now lyter dies and flips town.
Take a look at the people still on lyter at the end of the day. HALF of them are the scum team. The people who switch during a last minute vote switch are people who are unsure of themselves. Scum are very sure of themselves, they know the person they are lynching will flip town. What they don't want is to be seen as flip floppy. Town Should have taken a carefull look at the people who stayed on Lyter, and did not provide good reasons for doing so.
do do do, things discussed during the night, and finally the jailer dies.
One thing I noticed town doing was reading a lot into Night kills. Dont do this. Please. Dont. Go look up WIFOM. Town gains almost zero information by trying to discover why someone was killed. It may be because he was pressuring the scum, it may be because mafia thought by killing him they would make town think he was pressuring scum, it might just be because they rolled the dice and it landed on 5. who knows?
On April 07 2012 00:41 Bocki wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2012 13:57 LazinCajun wrote:
...I propose that we drop it the implications of him dying and move on to more substantial matters...
...Unless somebody has some amazing read to gain from the mafia hitting imallinson (I doubt it), it doesn't make any sense to me to dwell on these issues, and I think any more discussion of such triviality indicates a lack of desire to move forward, ergo indicates scuminess. A blue gets whacked and you do not want to see why? Or talk about why? And that after he attacked you and died instantly after this? That sounds a bit weird to me. I dont know what to think of it now, really, but ... its weird...
We have another red flag here. He is trying to get people to talk about something that will only serve to waste time.
In this day Nova does something good, which is at least mention Bocki. If you have not, please go read my post game thoughts from Newbie Mini Mafia . In them I explain why scum need to feel comfortable talking to each other in the thread.
The lynch against Era was not completely terrible; i mean it was still bad because it was a mislynch, but there are things that era could have done better. his main problem on day 2 was his focus on the nightkills (WIFOM is never usefull to town, except in rare roleclaim cases) which lead to him not contributing much to scum hunting.
At this point Nova and Bocki both pushed the Era lynch rather hard. Thats now 2 misslynches they were on. they should be looked at carefully.
Day3
Here, we have 2 people who have both pushed 2 misslynches start defending each other. This should be concerning.
And GG
Town's problem this game was its unfocused approach. They focused a lot on discussing things that did not matter, and spent no time analyzing motivations behind players. There were a few long, full cases posted against bocki on day 3, and yet none against therapist, so why was he lynched?
The best way to avoid this scenario for therapist is to set a trend of activity day 1 and 2. the major case against you was that you slid by with inactivity. Because you were blue it is tempting to do this, but you will ultimatly either end up in this situation, or being shot by the mafia. The best you can do is pretend as though you have no powers at all, and play as though you have nothing to lose.
I'm going to round this out with the advice I sent out to era.
Its important to keep in mind the basic object of the game. You are part of the uninformed majority trying to discover the informed minority. You are not trying to lynch idiots, you are not trying to lynch inactive people or lurkers, and you are not trying to lynch trolls.
One thing to remember is that Mafia can appear to be anyone they set their minds to. They can be the town leader, someone defending you, someone tunneling you, someone agressive ect. So if mafia can appear to have any traits they want, how do we distinguish townies from scum?
The Trick is in their agenda. Mafia intrinsically have a different agenda from the town. Their goal is to spread misinformation, chaos, distrust, and stay alive. While townies can certainly do all these things as well, that is not their goal. When reading over posts (and you should look all of them over carefully) first read the post as if the player who made it is confirmed town. ask yourself if this post makes sense in the frame of accomplishing town objectives. Next read it as though you know for a fact that player is scum. Ask yourself again if the post furthers scum objectives. Doing this will give you a terrific idea of what agenda the player is trying to push.
that should be a great start for you, some other tips:
Don't put much stock in "scumslips". while scum to make them, often they are townies who just say what they want.
You're town. Your goal is not to stay alive, your goal is to win. Don't care about how your posts might make you look, just post the analysis and get the information out there. Obviously you need to make yourself credible, so dont be a jerk, but people calling you scum should not concern you. You are town.
Finally for now my greatest advice. NOOOOOOOOOONEEEE is ever confirmed anything. You are only confirmed "town" "DT" "Scum" "medic" when you die and flip. Not before. People will say well this guy is almost confirmed town. that is wrong. if someone is defending you from a lynch, you need to look at that person heavily, because ask yourself, how does he know to defend me? it might be because he is scum, and is trying to become "confirmed" by defending you, having you flip town, and then saying "see guys? told you that was dumb"
Again, I highly suggest reading Newbie Mini Mafia, It is a game similar to this in that the scum score a flawless victory. Also it has a lot of post game analysis that many of you should find helpful.
If you have any questions about specifics please let me know.
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Lurker post
I read the last day or so of this... and there was no doubt in my mind that Therapist was town. His roleclaim was badly done, but his posting was extremely townie. Bocki's case was hanging together by threads, which you really should have pricked through, but Nova_Terra's posts were good (up until the last hour or so, when I had him pegged as the second scum: lazincajun seemed genuinely desperate, whereas Nova's posts were mainly trying to distract town from doing any actual scumhunting).
For a future game, Therapist: leave subtle clues about who you're checking at night by breadcrumbing your role and your actions (and findings). That allows you to refer to the earlier posts as extra evidence. It also means that if you get killed, a clever townie might discover your breadcrumbs and piece together your findings. Be careful with this kind of thing, because if you do it too obviously, mafia might find the breadcrumbs too soon and get an easy blue kill.
I didn't like lazin's insistance that he wasn't sure of his lynch, but wanted bluey and/or therapist to make a case on Nova or him. If you're not sure, why not pull up everybody's filter and try to figure it out yourself? It's lylo, why not make sure for yourself rather than waiting for other people's analysis?
PS. I am also new to this game, but advice is free right? Feel free to take what you want 
EDIT: ninja'd by an actual veteran 
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On April 11 2012 07:23 Therapist. wrote:
I thought my posting style on day 3 was so obvious that I was the sane cop that I wouldn't even have to role claim. Far from the truth, I needed to do way more than I possibly imagined. I had no idea which of Nova and Lazin were scum (although my exchange with Nova at the end had me pretty convinced that he was scum. I think Bocki and Nova both posted very obviously at the end).
Heh, hadn't read this before my post. I, for one, agree with you.
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Thank you guys for analysis
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On April 11 2012 08:09 Acrofales wrote:Lurker postI read the last day or so of this... and there was no doubt in my mind that Therapist was town. His roleclaim was badly done, but his posting was extremely townie. Bocki's case was hanging together by threads, which you really should have pricked through, but Nova_Terra's posts were good (up until the last hour or so, when I had him pegged as the second scum: lazincajun seemed genuinely desperate, whereas Nova's posts were mainly trying to distract town from doing any actual scumhunting). For a future game, Therapist: leave subtle clues about who you're checking at night by breadcrumbing your role and your actions (and findings). That allows you to refer to the earlier posts as extra evidence. It also means that if you get killed, a clever townie might discover your breadcrumbs and piece together your findings. Be careful with this kind of thing, because if you do it too obviously, mafia might find the breadcrumbs too soon and get an easy blue kill. I didn't like lazin's insistance that he wasn't sure of his lynch, but wanted bluey and/or therapist to make a case on Nova or him. If you're not sure, why not pull up everybody's filter and try to figure it out yourself? It's lylo, why not make sure for yourself rather than waiting for other people's analysis? PS. I am also new to this game, but advice is free right? Feel free to take what you want EDIT: ninja'd by an actual veteran
What about Therapist's post was townie to you? I got the total opposite read.
I tried damn hard to make a case vs. nova, and couldn't, that's why I was asking the rest of the town to point out something I might have missed. They apparently couldn't either. I think I just don't know how to make a scum read.
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I wasn't sure about Therapist, but his DT claim had the best kind of breadcrumb: a massive overnight opinion switch. Also, when was the last time anyone fake-claimed in a TL newbie game?
Nova's play reminds me of Toadesstern - he posts a lot of filler even as town. I read him right all three games so far but I'm not absolutely sure how I'm telling the difference. Maybe he looks more frustrated and despairing as town. Well played anyway.
Bocki's output on day 3 made his day 1 look incredibly scummy. No way does a vanilla town player with that posting ability actively lurk through day 1.
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On April 11 2012 07:49 Nova_Terra wrote:
Yeah, i dont just mean that because i played you. i thought and still think that you played really well and logically.
The overall mistake in this game IMO was: Dont just let someone get confirmed town status. At least pressure them.
But i cant really say anything cause i suck at town.
And lazin, my only game as town i got played terribly too. So it could be a redemption game haha
Wat who played you?
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Lol mementoss shut up
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On April 11 2012 10:18 jaj22 wrote:I wasn't sure about Therapist, but his DT claim had the best kind of breadcrumb: a massive overnight opinion switch. Also, when was the last time anyone fake-claimed in a TL newbie game? Nova's play reminds me of Toadesstern - he posts a lot of filler even as town. I read him right all three games so far but I'm not absolutely sure how I'm telling the difference. Maybe he looks more frustrated and despairing as town. Well played anyway. Bocki's output on day 3 made his day 1 look incredibly scummy. No way does a vanilla town player with that posting ability actively lurk through day 1.
fake-claiming in his situation would have been the only thing a maf could have done btw. the opinions were mainly set (all 4 votes on him). If I would have been in that situation, I would have called blue as well. Just to hope that I can somehow reason with older posts. I only need them to get off my back because I will never have to really prove it. When they change their vote to anyone else but the other maf, they are dead.
Thanks for the flowers in paragraph 3  . But I dont really think that my D3 makes my D1 look scummy. Everyone lurked on D1, I explained reasonably why I chose not to write so much and I proposed a solution to the "no-information-lynch-problem" on D1.
From the outside, I think I would have thought of myself as scummy after gosses nightly kill. I would have put myself under more pressure, but mainly, only blueyd said something about me. And I was able to make that sound like a retort to my attack on him (as I said "This is mainly because we've been at each other the whole game").
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On April 11 2012 09:01 LazinCajun wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2012 08:09 Acrofales wrote:Lurker postI read the last day or so of this... and there was no doubt in my mind that Therapist was town. His roleclaim was badly done, but his posting was extremely townie. Bocki's case was hanging together by threads, which you really should have pricked through, but Nova_Terra's posts were good (up until the last hour or so, when I had him pegged as the second scum: lazincajun seemed genuinely desperate, whereas Nova's posts were mainly trying to distract town from doing any actual scumhunting). For a future game, Therapist: leave subtle clues about who you're checking at night by breadcrumbing your role and your actions (and findings). That allows you to refer to the earlier posts as extra evidence. It also means that if you get killed, a clever townie might discover your breadcrumbs and piece together your findings. Be careful with this kind of thing, because if you do it too obviously, mafia might find the breadcrumbs too soon and get an easy blue kill. I didn't like lazin's insistance that he wasn't sure of his lynch, but wanted bluey and/or therapist to make a case on Nova or him. If you're not sure, why not pull up everybody's filter and try to figure it out yourself? It's lylo, why not make sure for yourself rather than waiting for other people's analysis? PS. I am also new to this game, but advice is free right? Feel free to take what you want EDIT: ninja'd by an actual veteran What about Therapist's post was townie to you? I got the total opposite read. I tried damn hard to make a case vs. nova, and couldn't, that's why I was asking the rest of the town to point out something I might have missed. They apparently couldn't either. I think I just don't know how to make a scum read.
Yeah, I didn't know which one of you two was scum until the very last hour. However, you only needed to find 1 scum, not two for this night kill! Here is why I thought Therapist was town:
1. A couple of people pointed out that he was hard on BlueyD's case and switched 180º after the night. That makes his blue claim at least somewhat credible: Bocki insisted that it was a mafia trying to distance himself from his scumbuddy. It's possible, but very risky.
That is not the main reason, though, just the first inkling of Therapist's blueclaim being exactly what it was: a sign of a desperate townie trying to prevent a mislynch. I have to admit that I read the night posts without bothering to analyze then came in during the day when you were at lylo and had to backtrack to where Therapist claimed, so I actually read his claim after his later posts. It was actually BlueyD that clued me in with this post:
+ Show Spoiler [BlueyD's incredibly townie post] +On April 10 2012 23:16 BlueyD wrote:Show nested quote +Lazin said:
Red BlueyD, red Therapist option -- I point out a potential connection between you two based on day 1 votes. Day 2 you split your votes to hide mafia ties, and you're not really in any danger of dying since after Gossemer's vote (1.5 hours before the deadline, plenty of time for therapist to switch votes and save you) puts Era into the noose. If we're both red and we did this, then that means the plan included either a) bussing me while other lynch targets were available (era) in a game with only 2 reds, or b) therapist switching his vote to last-minute save me, which would have aroused instant suspicion and provided a much clearer connection case than both of us voting together from the start. I repeat: Option B, which is what you and Bocki both think is true, would be extremely stupid play. In a situation where therapist and I are the reds, this option leads straight to our consecutive lynches. It just can’t be true. Show nested quote +Lazin said:
1) Bocki never said now is the best time for a blue to claim (???). Quote a post if I missed something please. Show nested quote +Bocki said:
(1) This blue call is too convenient to be true. I know, calling blue at any time is not good and if he really was blue, now would be the time. I interpret this to mean “we generally want blues to stay hidden most of the time, so it’s understandable that if Therapist’s claim is true, it only comes up now that he’s on the block: before was a bad time to claim, and after would be too late, therefore now is the best moment”. So, yeah, Bocki dismisses the possibility as “too convenient”, then admits it is consistent with good blue play in the next sentence. Scummy, scummy, scummy. You missed the goal of points 2 and 3 here: they are meant to attack Bocki, not to defend Therapist. I’m entirely aware that these do not make Therapist look more town-aligned, and that both explanations (red and blue) are an adequate explanation for these parts of his behavior. That’s the whole point I’m trying to make in that part of my post: Bocki never even considers the blue Therapist possibility. He just says “nah, can’t be”, and offers no explanation except speculations which start with what he has to prove: He assumes from the start that Therapist and I are red. This is tunnel vision. ---------- Lazin, that little message to Nova and you was mostly meant to not just rely on what the other is saying – you’ve both looked town-aligned to each other (and to me) for a while and openly said so, but neither of you is actually confirmed. I feel you’re taking us away from the immediate issue, which is “which of Therapist and Bocki is scum?” You’re asking me to find all the mafia right now when all we need for today is one. I don’t have a case against either of you right now and I have a busy day today (will be back home too late for the lynch; have access to a computer at my lab but will probably not be playing mafia much), so I don’t think I’ll have time to make the case you want me to do now. ---------- Here’s what it comes down to for me now: - My read on Therapist is 90% blue. - My read on Bocki is 90% red. - This leaves one of Nova and Lazin as scum and one as townie. Do I have a case on either? No, and in all likelihood I won’t today, but all we need right now is one red.
This post is right on the mark and was one of the first posts I read when I dropped into the thread (and was the one that got me interested in the puzzle). It uses good logic, goes straight to the point and is completely honest. This may still be a mafia playing a very clever trap, but it made me look at Bocki's case against Therapist:
+ Show Spoiler [Bocki's bad case, with analysis…] +On April 10 2012 05:56 Bocki wrote:
At lot happened, these are my thoughts:
Therapist is on of the guys that didnt bring much content. As lazin said, he didnt respond to the "post more" postings from various others. Now he's under the gun and suddenly claims blue.
Not only does he claim blue, but he said he investigated BlueyD and gosse. Gosse is dead, so it wont do much to talk about that. But the "BlueyD is a towny" investigation is the scummiest part.
Lets see what we thought:
Bocki: Therapist and BlueyD scum
Lazin: Therapist and Bocki/BlueyD scum
Nova: Therapist and Bocki/BlueyD scum
BlueyD: Therapist and Bocki scum
Therapist: Nova, Lazin, Bocki scum
BlueyD and me think of each other as scum, I think mainly because we have been over each other the entire game. This is not a case. This is two people tunneling on each other and is usually not much use. Emphasizing that BlueyD is scum because you have said so all game is not convincing me, it is just trying to hide the lack of evidence in this post. Therapist comes up, says he's blue and makes BlueyD inno. This is my prediction on what scum (therapist/blueyd) thought this will go down  this is after I switched to therapist, so 3 votes for therapist, 1 for me) Therapist told BlueyD to vote for him, to complete the bandwagon Therapist brings out the "blue"-hammer, makes BlueyD inno and calls Bock/lazin/nova scum. Therapist hopes that one of us 3 switches votes to whoever but BlueyD (hey, he's inno! and therapist is blue!) BlueyD switches to that person Therapist votes that person. That would make 3 votes and the lynch. This blue call is too convenient to be true. I know, calling blue at any time is not good and if he really was blue, now would be the time. But calling investigating blueyd before... too convenient. He probably chose these 2 persons because he voted on the days before the night he claims to have investigated. He even brought up the idea of a tactical vote, just to call it "poor play" At this point I still haven't read Therapist's roleclaim, so I still need more info, but this entire bit is all extremely WIFOM. He dismisses Therapist's blueclaim out of hand as "too convenient" and gives a rather elaborate explanation of what has happened. Either Bocki pricked through some very clever scumplay, or he himself is scum trying to cast suspicion on two townies. Ockham's razor and my own experience as playing mafia indicate the latter is more likely. Show nested quote +On April 08 2012 01:47 Therapist. wrote:
I sure hope it's not scenario 3 as I am also voting for BlueyD. Seems like it'd be poor play to vote for your teammate early unless it's late in the game the person being voted for has been established as 100% scum. Show nested quote +On April 09 2012 11:04 Therapist. wrote:
I don't believe BlueyD to be mafia. I strongly disagree with bandwagoning onto him immediately. Instead, I would question the motives behind Bocki and LazinCajun INSTANTLY throwing down votes on BlueyD. I clearly stated my motives, Lazin as well. So I dont know what you want to question about them. Maybe its just to try to produce confusion (hence the CAPITALIZATION). I'll post more if I notice something else.
So, I now have BlueyD making a good case on Bocki, and scrolling up I have Bocki posting a lot of WIFOM. I now page back to Therapist's post and see his first post before his blueclaim:
+ Show Spoiler [Therapist's townie analysis] +On April 10 2012 03:58 Therapist. wrote:
Let me preface this post by stating that we are in Lynch or Lose. People who are throwing their votes in without a second thought with no convincing necessary are misinformed. This is the point where we absolutely must try as hard as possible to get an accurate mafia read. Instantly jumping on a bandwagon because someone made a case you think to be convincing is misinformed. Instead, let me recommend that we meet a case that someone proposes and try to either make it stronger or debunk it. None of this "Glad we agree, vote this person!" stuff.
Now let's think about this for just a moment. It's LYLO for the town. All the votes go on me. Everyone agrees without a second thought. Whoever is in the mafia feels no need to defend me, because if the lynch on me goes through, the game is over and mafia wins.
This is either a mafia staying extremely cool under pressure, or a townie pointing out the obvious.
BlueyD, shame on you for immediately dropping your strong case against Bocki and going for me. Bluey is one of my highest town reads for the moment, so I urge him especially to take a second look and re-analyze the situation.
Anybody going back over the older posts should have been surprised by this: the day before he voted BlueyD and the night flipped him 180 degrees, WITHOUT explanation. This is not a mafia move, they always try to come up with plausible reasons for flipflopping, in order to seem less suspect. The question is still WHY does he flipflop, but it's definitely something that should set people's alarmbells off.
From my point of view, 2 of these 3 are definitely mafia. 100% no doubt in my mind it is 2 out these three: Bocki, LazinCajun, and NovaTerra. Operating from this perspective, we see that Bocki doesn't take much to be convinced to change his vote. He votes for BlueyD from the start, which is one of my strongest town reads. Then, with no additional information offerred or even thinking of a possibility that I'm not scum, Bocki changes his vote to me as soon as someone makes a case against me. I believe this to be in expectation of the bandwagon that followed against me, planning to keep the momentum in his favor against me. Bocki is my strongest scum read for this game.
Yes... but I am still interested in why you suddenly flip on BlueyD. I agree that if this is in fact Bocki's behaviour (and I make a note to check that later), it is quite scummy, and adding to the WIFOMy case he makes later, would make him very scumspect.
Lazin seems the most intent on actually rooting out the mafia, and his focus on Bocki rather than on BlueyD or myself is a lot of proof of this from my standpoint of confidence in BlueyD and confidence in myself. I like that Lazin's eye is on Bocki through all of this and he agrees that voting on someone like me to root out a response is the right way to do it. I believe him to be the most willing to change his vote and be convinced that someone is mafia. Out of my 3 mafia reads, Lazin is the most likely to be town.
Ok, someone else out of these three has to be town and you pegged lazin. Reasons seem weak, but lets read on.
That brings us to NovaTerra. He posts a huge amount of fluff in the thread. He mostly spends his time calling out other peoples' arguments without offering any counter argument of his own. He just lets people know what's wrong with their argument. The two times he has posted a long analysis on somebody, they have both been town. Earlier in the thread, he made a long post against era, going post by post and trying to make each of his posts sound as mafia as possible. Now, he's come back with a long post against me saying that I am scum. I know myself to be town, so this second long post against a town member leads me to believe he already knows I'm town. Him immediately getting a bandwagon going instead of looking for some discussion also shows this to me. I believe NovaTerra to be the second scum over Lazin at this point.
This could just as well be mafia making Nova look bad, so not much here. Will have to go through Nova's filter to decide on this (and was way too lazy to do this). So nothing much on Lazin or Nova from this analysis, but a pointer to Bocki.
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Anyway, as to NovaTerra's argument... he starts off focused on the inactivity. He doesn't even entertain the possibility that there is a reason for laying low besides being mafia. He jumps right on the inactivity as a certain mafia read and in fact dedicates half his long post to talking about my inactivity. You could've justified voting me based on inactivity earlier in the game as you could say that I "wasn't adding much to the game." But at this point, it's easy to call out a lurker as mafia and get them lynched based on the limited information that has been brought out on your target.
He calls me out a lot in this post as well for supposed contradictions. I change my mind about BlueyD and all of a sudden that's a major contradiction and I'm scum? No, I changed my mind about BlueyD and choose to focus my investigation elsewhere. Changing one's mind doesn't make one scum, it makes one intelligent. You have to look at the game as it develops and see what's really going on. And try to look past peoples' posts and speculate reasons for them playing as they do. You all scream MAFIA, but that's not the only reason someone would want to sit back.
Still no reason for the switch on BlueyD, though. Note to look at earlier posts by Therapist, but first I want to find his blueclaim.
So now I have a good post by Therapist, but the second half was a bit wishywashy and I still have some questions. Because Bocki and BlueyD already mentioned the blueclaim I know why Therapist switched BlueyD from red to green overnight, but this post didn't give a reason and I can imagine town being suspect of such a switch. Remarkably, only BlueyD made this connection.
Then came his blue claim, which really was nothing special, except for clarifying his switch to BlueyD, making all the pieces fall together:
Either Therapist is scum and his roleclaim is false. In this case, Bocki is probably town with a good read. Or Therapist is town, in which case BlueyD is town, and Bocki is scum. Given that Therapist wasn't giving many reads and I still had the outstanding note on Bocki, I had another look at him and found the post Therapist was referring to:
On April 10 2012 02:18 Bocki wrote:
Okay, like I said lazin, we have to work together to get the mafia.
So I will change my vote from my suspect #1 to suspect #2 to get a maf.
##Unvote: BlueyD
##Vote: Therapist
This is a typical sheep, with no effort to justify the vote except "work together", which is weak. Together with the post I read before this makes him scum.
This is made stronger by the lack of a counterclaim. If Therapist truly was scum falsely claiming blue at lylo, then the real blue would probably be up in arms. Lazin claimed VT, leaving Bocki, Nova and BlueyD. Bocki made it quite clear he was not blue in his reaction to the roleclaim, leaving Nova or BlueyD. Neither of these were giving off blue vibes or responding to the "false" blue claim in the way a real blue would. This was just the last bit of evidence I needed to make Bocki the best lynch target.
The last hour added Nova as his scumbuddy, but this was not even necessary to see: you only had to lynch a single mafia. Nova would then be in a very tough spot:
Either he kills Therapist, leaving a confirmed townie and has to talk that townie into lynching lazin.
Or he kills BlueyD who flips green. He then spins some wifom about Therapist being the last mafia and shooting BlueyD to "confirm" his fake blueclaim. However, I doubt this would've worked, especially as Therapist's night DT check would leave him with no doubt and plenty of time to make a rock solid case against Nova.
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Acrofales:
"and gives a rather elaborate explanation of what has happened"
This is only half of what had happened and half of what will happen. And It just fell right that way.
But to be true, it was easy to foresee the things that are going to happen. Therapist was under the gun so he definitly will vote someone else. BlueyD was suspicious of me before, so therapist could be pretty sure that BlueyD will switch with him to me. The only person this whole post was adressed to, was lazin. I wanted to make him think that (since it happened like I said) I can not be scum, because the only way that would work is that if Nova was scum as well. And since he was fairly sure that nova was green, that gamble was worth the risk.
My/our idea as scum was pretty easy: Since Nova had been labeled "green" by lazin and someone else (dunno anymore), we wanted to play this out. We both attacked someone else (me blueyd, him therapist) to see which one the last towny will fall for. It was unlucky for me that he chose therapist, since it would have made me a little better looking if I didnt have to switch votes, but in the end, I think it was the best way. Because if Nova had to change his vote, this would make therapist or blueyd more keen to make a case against him (e.g."why the change now?").
My last postings before the last hour were all directed at lazin (see communication theory sender-reciever) although I talked to or about others. It was all to convince lazin to stay with nova and me. When D3 began, I voted for blueyd and he instantly followed, I knew that we'd won. The rest was just trench-fights. He had made his mind up (although he said otherwise, I think he was fairly sure that therapist and blueyd were scum) and so I knew we won.
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Bocki, I understand your reasoning and your post. It did exactly what you wanted it to do, so nothing wrong there!
I was just responding to Lazin's question about how I got a town read on Therapist. As I mentioned in my post, I came into this thread in the last night and didn't follow it from the start. I have none of the history you guys have and none of the tension of slowly slipping into lylo. I then hopped in during the day and read the posts in a non-chronological order, which also makes stuff quite different.
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On April 11 2012 23:49 Bocki wrote:
My last postings before the last hour were all directed at lazin (see communication theory sender-reciever) although I talked to or about others. It was all to convince lazin to stay with nova and me. When D3 began, I voted for blueyd and he instantly followed, I knew that we'd won. The rest was just trench-fights. He had made his mind up (although he said otherwise, I think he was fairly sure that therapist and blueyd were scum) and so I knew we won.
Then you really misread ME. I was honest in my reasons for voting for BlueyD -- it was just to get votes onto somebody. Plus I wasn't sure where BlueyD stood, so I wanted to pressure him. Immediately after we voted on him, he made a good, long analysis post.
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Acrofales's analysis is dead on and I wish he had been in the game instead, except for one thing:
It was possible to have a setup with only 1 blue (33% chance), so if Therapist is red then the lack of a counterclaim doesn't mean there's a blue who isn't speaking up. There could just be no other blue.
Next time I see people flagging each other as confirmed townies I'm gonna ask questions... This is what led to that situation where Lazin wouldn't lynch a pretty obvious red because that meant his 'green' buddy wasn't green after all.
If there's one thing Bocki did well, it's distracting me from a lot of what was happening.
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if you knew nova was red why did n't you make a case
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It was obvious from your perspective because you knew that you were town.. it was not obvious at ALL to me.
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On April 12 2012 02:32 BlueyD wrote:
Acrofales's analysis is dead on and I wish he had been in the game instead, except for one thing:
It was possible to have a setup with only 1 blue (33% chance), so if Therapist is red then the lack of a counterclaim doesn't mean there's a blue who isn't speaking up. There could just be no other blue.
Next time I see people flagging each other as confirmed townies I'm gonna ask questions... This is what led to that situation where Lazin wouldn't lynch a pretty obvious red because that meant his 'green' buddy wasn't green after all.
If there's one thing Bocki did well, it's distracting me from a lot of what was happening.
Ah, ok. I didn't check the OP too carefully. Thought 2 blue roles was confirmed. Ignore the last part then, sorry.
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Lazin: It's okay, we all make some horrible reads. I was so defensive by the end of that game that when I saw Therapist suddenly defending me, I didn't think "Blue!", I thought "Wow, best framing ever, I'm so screwed." :-D
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Haha! Next time I play, I'm just going to tunnel vote Nova (I kid)
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EPT
