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Newbie Mini Mafia VII - Page 18

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Nova_Terra
Profile Joined March 2012
Switzerland1190 Posts
April 09 2012 16:47 GMT
#341
Okay, i am definitely not going through all of Therapist's posts, because its way too time consuming and theres a lot of non-content that doesnt need to be involved. Of course, i will make a brief summary.

So,
enter Therapist
Therapist, in this game, is the ultimate slip-byer.
So, in total, Therapist has 18 ingame posts. compare this to Lazins approximate 51, my approximate 99. Therapist has the smallest filter out of anyone. i checked all of ours just to make sure. he hasnt even broken the 1 page mark yet.

however, this wouldnt be a problem if there was original content and analysis. lets take a look into his filter.
Therapist starts with 2 nonposts, so 1/9 of his posts are already wasted for nothing.
then he says that he has no suspicions so far. helpful. Maybe had he tried to post something original for discussion he could have had suspicions.
Then he decides to make a post where he says that we dont all need to bandwagon lyter, so he wont.
Then he does. cool, wasting space and contradicting.
He informs us he will be there for deadline. this is 1/3 of his posts. in over 1 and a half days, Therapist has 1. Posted no content, 2. bandwagoned after saying he didnt!
oh, now, gossemerr contradicted himself, so vote goes to him. but you also contradicted yourself. meh.
Then he says that i'm probably right, and proceeds to let a probably right lynch go ahead without removing a vote.
Lyter dies, and theres a bit of WIFOM about gossemerr being more suspicious because of it. Also, he does this OH MAYBE we can get information from somebody but never does anything. at all.
Now, all of his posts are either from necessity or from direct pressure. so never contributing willfully. he contradicts himself by saying that there was a reason at that point to go Gossemerr instead of Lyter, whereas earlier he had said there was no reason to do one over the other.
one thing that bugs me is
DId you guys really jump on the Lyter bandwagon intending to go all the way and lynch him no matter what? I don't see what the advantage of doing that could possibly be. There's a difference between pressure moves and kill moves.

Okay, so apparently we were the ones who jumped on the bandwagon intending to kill somebody. whereas you jumped between two, contradict yourself while doing it, try to lynch someone who has posted much more content than the other. lol. Then what did you say? You dont see what the advantage could possibly be? well, its certainly no less advantageous than saying you have no reads, jumping on 2 different bandwagons and settling on someone that you dont really think is scum. now is he trying to set the blame on us?

+ Show Spoiler +
On April 07 2012 07:58 Therapist. wrote:
Sorry about the delay on this post. My local Verizon decided to give out last night and put a damper on my plans for the evening. Anyway, my analysis thus far is as follows.

4. Gossemerr
Gossemerr started out not wanting to lynch a lurker. But as the inactivity of the day went on, he felt a need to get some activity going, so he voted for a lurker. I now see this not as a contradiction, but just as annoyance that no one was posting anything. This has been a rather lurky bunch, so I don't blame him. It is confusing however that he didn't change his vote once Lyter replied, but he claims being unavailable. I agree with his decision to apply some pressure... and it is even more understandable that he didn't change his vote since now that I remember it would have made him get voted off. I am leaning towards Townie for Gossemerr.

---------
5. BlueyD
BlueyD is really going after Gossemerr for no particular reason. I personally voted Gossemerr day one because of the mild contradiction he made and Lyter's defense of himself. It was the only other place I could really go. But then after that and rethinking about it, Gossemerr made a lot more sense to me and there was no major contradiction in his decision making. BlueyD has no such opinion and immediately sets his sights on Gossemerr, writing out an attack against him. I'm not sure why this attack is necessary, because there was really no scum behavior from Gossemerr. You seem awfully focused on someone who took the lead in getting information for us. You poke in at me for changing my vote on day one. Doesn't really make sense for you to be suspicious of me for it, but I guess that's the nature of the game. I feel like your posts are over accusatory at this point with very little information to go by. This makes me suspicious of you.

------------
6.LazinCajun
I can't get too much of a read on LazinCajun because he came late to the game and has a very short filter. At the same time, he's mostly staying out of things. He's making some posts here and there replying to things, but none of them have any real content. He's basically just saying over and over again that he has no opinion. I would really like to hear what he has to say based on looking through peoples' filters. As such, I can just say that I think he is suspiciously laying low.

------
7. Era
Era posts very little content for awhile, and then goes into what is in my opinion a shoddy argument against BlueyD. I think that you can make an argument against BlueyD, but I don't think his post really has anything meaningful to say. I agree that it's strange to be joking and such like he is, but I dont' see why he shouldn't. People can have whatever flavor they want really and we can't really get a read from the fact that he's having a little fun with his posts. Most of the argument has to do with his flavor, but he also claims a contradiction when BlueyD talks about threatening based on meta being difficult in a newbie game. It makes sense because there's either 1. No history to work with, or 2. Not enough experience to recognize behaviors as they apply to the game. I don't think era is necessarily scummy, but his posts really don't seem to have too much meaning outside of some little tidbits here and there.

--------
8. Bocki
He was practically completely silent day one, letting people find their own way to a green and then jumping on the bandwagon as it came up. Everything is "okay, I agree" for whatever case people are making up until it's against him. If he continues to mostly just jump on bandwagons, I will get more suspicious. As of right now, I am in the middle on Bocky.

-------------
9. Nova_Terra
By far the most active poster who seems to spend a bit too much time critisizing the style of responses rather than providing meaningful analysis of the responses. At the same time, he does provide lots of analysis and keeps the conversation going quite effectively. I would be sad to see him lynched purely on the basis that he keeps things moving. Plus, I don't think his efforts to draw attention to himself and expose so many other people are very scummy. I think Nova is pretty town at this point.


So, this type of post is what i talked about earlier. This is Therapists only analysis in the game. And, its a scummy one at that. why? because it is not filter based, it goes shortly over multiple people and doesnt get a very good read, and allows the person if mafia to cleverly locate their mafia teammates suspicionwise, so if they die later they can say OH I SAID HE WAS SCUM EARLIER. Its the same as what i did last game as Scum. Here, he notes BlueyD as scummy.
Next post is a bit of WIFOM and a vote on BlueyD,because he is his strongest read. no problem right there.
2 posts on "well i hope this doesnt happen" and "this looks bad for town" mentality.
and suddenly...... with no other information.......
+ Show Spoiler +
On April 09 2012 11:04 Therapist. wrote:
I don't believe BlueyD to be mafia. I strongly disagree with bandwagoning onto him immediately. Instead, I would question the motives behind Bocki and LazinCajun INSTANTLY throwing down votes on BlueyD. For the time being I am going to focus my analysis on the two of them and see what I can come up with. AT LEAST one of them is 100% mafia in my opinion. I'll post more details later, but I really wanted to get this out there that I think those two should be the focus of our investigation for day 3.


DONT BANDWAGON BLUEYD! Its scummy if anyone votes him now! why would you vote so early? A chainsaw defense of someone you literally just voted as scum, and said was your scummiest read, but suddenly without any analysis regarding him at all, everyone voting him is scummy. just, what?
So theres many contradictions, no content posted that isnt scummy, and strange changes. And my scummiest read.

##Vote: Therapist



Proud supporter of the Basking Rootwalla
Nova_Terra
Profile Joined March 2012
Switzerland1190 Posts
April 09 2012 16:51 GMT
#342
I have to note in bocki's defense, why did you think that Therapist or era was a good analyst? really?
Proud supporter of the Basking Rootwalla
Nova_Terra
Profile Joined March 2012
Switzerland1190 Posts
April 09 2012 17:01 GMT
#343
EBWOP: Not posting in bockis defense,i mean i am referencing it
Proud supporter of the Basking Rootwalla
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 17:12 GMT
#344
Nova, I agree 100%.

My simple argument I mentioned earlier against therapist is simply this:
I believe one of BlueyD / Bocki is town and the other mafia based their voting for each other.

The last mafia would either be me (i know i'm not by mod PM ), you, or therapist. If my decision is between you and therapist, then therapist is by far the better lynch. You could be playing a mafia role very well, but as you correctly noted Therapist has contributed basically nothing to gain the town any information.

##Unvote: BlueyD
##Vote: Therapist


I bet Therapist ends up being a unanimous lynch and turns up red, with the 3rd town joining our vote and his teammate throwing him under the bus to save his chances for next round.
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 17:15 GMT
#345
EBWOP: I didn't want to reveal that argument until I knew your read on therapist because I didn't want the BlueyD / Bocki votes to change just yet. I didn't want the mafia to come up with a crazy WIFOM plan of voting for each other to obscure things further.
Bocki
Profile Joined October 2011
Germany98 Posts
April 09 2012 17:18 GMT
#346
Okay, like I said lazin, we have to work together to get the mafia.

So I will change my vote from my suspect #1 to suspect #2 to get a maf.

##Unvote: BlueyD
##Vote: Therapist
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 17:23 GMT
#347
I just want to make it clear that voting for therapist now does not necessarily indicate innocence. Assuming my vote and nova's don't change, therapist would've been lynched on our two votes alone, so it's likely therapist will be unanimously lynched.

Nova, I propose we concentrate on BlueyD and Bocki now. I will of course consider what Therapist posts, but it will have to be very convincing at this point.
BlueyD
Profile Joined April 2010
Canada437 Posts
April 09 2012 17:30 GMT
#348
On Bocki’s post:

Really? You don’t see why I’m alive? My best 2 reads (era and Goss) on day 1 flipped townie, so we know there was no reason at all for scum to hit me night 1 while they were both still alive: Scum knew I wasn’t targeting them so I was no danger. On day 2 it became clear I would be the easiest day 3 lynch target, so scum was obviously going to save me for that lynch and hit someone else night 2. There's zero reason to suspect me due to my alive status.

----------

Well I meant to add a section on Therapist here, because he’s my second scum read, but I see Nova got there ahead of me and it's pretty good. The filters show me why I wasn’t getting a read on him: he has about zero content. His last post is the most telling by far.

It is EXTREMELY suspicious that he voted for me day 2, but then turned around day 3 and told people not to bandwagon without explaining AT ALL why he completely turned around, and made it look like I was under zero suspicion for him which is entirely unrealistic. He has this fun habit of voting before and not after an analysis (if any), which to me means he might have interests other than town’s.

I can’t wait to see what Therapist posts next.

Bocki and Therapist are my scumreads.


Zealot Chaaaaarge!
BlueyD
Profile Joined April 2010
Canada437 Posts
April 09 2012 17:32 GMT
#349
EBWOP:

Glad we all agree on Therapist, at least.

##Unvote: Bocki
##Vote: Therapist


Zealot Chaaaaarge!
Bocki
Profile Joined October 2011
Germany98 Posts
April 09 2012 17:32 GMT
#350
Lazin: I know that it does not indicate my innocence. But I told you that I trust you and Nova to be town and that I am willing to change from BlueyD if you come to a consensis. Since I suspected therapist and blueyd (which was two days ago http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=325394&currentpage=13#241 and http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=325394&currentpage=13#241 ), I am willing to change from BlueyD to therapist, since I think that those are our mafioso.
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 17:41 GMT
#351
Bocki: I did not intend that as an accusation, merely a note. It applies equally to everybody still in the game, even nova and myself. I probably didn't need to post it anyway, as therapist getting 4 votes was pretty much a foregone conclusion.
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 09 2012 18:58 GMT
#352
Let me preface this post by stating that we are in Lynch or Lose. People who are throwing their votes in without a second thought with no convincing necessary are misinformed. This is the point where we absolutely must try as hard as possible to get an accurate mafia read. Instantly jumping on a bandwagon because someone made a case you think to be convincing is misinformed. Instead, let me recommend that we meet a case that someone proposes and try to either make it stronger or debunk it. None of this "Glad we agree, vote this person!" stuff.

Now let's think about this for just a moment. It's LYLO for the town. All the votes go on me. Everyone agrees without a second thought. Whoever is in the mafia feels no need to defend me, because if the lynch on me goes through, the game is over and mafia wins.

BlueyD, shame on you for immediately dropping your strong case against Bocki and going for me. Bluey is one of my highest town reads for the moment, so I urge him especially to take a second look and re-analyze the situation.

From my point of view, 2 of these 3 are definitely mafia. 100% no doubt in my mind it is 2 out these three: Bocki, LazinCajun, and NovaTerra. Operating from this perspective, we see that Bocki doesn't take much to be convinced to change his vote. He votes for BlueyD from the start, which is one of my strongest town reads. Then, with no additional information offerred or even thinking of a possibility that I'm not scum, Bocki changes his vote to me as soon as someone makes a case against me. I believe this to be in expectation of the bandwagon that followed against me, planning to keep the momentum in his favor against me. Bocki is my strongest scum read for this game.

Lazin seems the most intent on actually rooting out the mafia, and his focus on Bocki rather than on BlueyD or myself is a lot of proof of this from my standpoint of confidence in BlueyD and confidence in myself. I like that Lazin's eye is on Bocki through all of this and he agrees that voting on someone like me to root out a response is the right way to do it. I believe him to be the most willing to change his vote and be convinced that someone is mafia. Out of my 3 mafia reads, Lazin is the most likely to be town.

That brings us to NovaTerra. He posts a huge amount of fluff in the thread. He mostly spends his time calling out other peoples' arguments without offering any counter argument of his own. He just lets people know what's wrong with their argument. The two times he has posted a long analysis on somebody, they have both been town. Earlier in the thread, he made a long post against era, going post by post and trying to make each of his posts sound as mafia as possible. Now, he's come back with a long post against me saying that I am scum. I know myself to be town, so this second long post against a town member leads me to believe he already knows I'm town. Him immediately getting a bandwagon going instead of looking for some discussion also shows this to me. I believe NovaTerra to be the second scum over Lazin at this point.

--------------

Anyway, as to NovaTerra's argument... he starts off focused on the inactivity. He doesn't even entertain the possibility that there is a reason for laying low besides being mafia. He jumps right on the inactivity as a certain mafia read and in fact dedicates half his long post to talking about my inactivity. You could've justified voting me based on inactivity earlier in the game as you could say that I "wasn't adding much to the game." But at this point, it's easy to call out a lurker as mafia and get them lynched based on the limited information that has been brought out on your target.

He calls me out a lot in this post as well for supposed contradictions. I change my mind about BlueyD and all of a sudden that's a major contradiction and I'm scum? No, I changed my mind about BlueyD and choose to focus my investigation elsewhere. Changing one's mind doesn't make one scum, it makes one intelligent. You have to look at the game as it develops and see what's really going on. And try to look past peoples' posts and speculate reasons for them playing as they do. You all scream MAFIA, but that's not the only reason someone would want to sit back.
BlueyD
Profile Joined April 2010
Canada437 Posts
April 09 2012 19:20 GMT
#353
Therapist, I'd like you to explain to us how I managed to become your highest town read.
Zealot Chaaaaarge!
Nova_Terra
Profile Joined March 2012
Switzerland1190 Posts
April 09 2012 19:28 GMT
#354
Right now i only have time to go over the last part of this, will look into your things on everyone tomorrow morning.
Sure, there can be a reason for laying low. however, in this case, it wasnt only laying low. it was not getting involved in entire arguments, picking sides in issues. and even when you did post, there wasn't good analysis! inactivity can be either way, however when coupled with not contributing, it does make one more scummy. Another thing is, you are barely inactive. you defend everything that comes to you! BUT, you dont really contribute otherwise. thats not a townie characteristic.
Also, there were multiple minor contradictions, the biggest one being BlueyD. The fact that you made contradictions doesnt make you scum---its that there are more than 1, and because of such a small filter and lack of analysis, contradictions and random changes of opinion account for a good bit of your posting. And then theres the fact that you dont even take the time to explain your change in reasoning. one post you are voting BlueyD, and after two 1 liners you are suddenly hardcore against anyone that wanted to vote him.
Proud supporter of the Basking Rootwalla
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 19:44 GMT
#355
On April 10 2012 03:58 Therapist. wrote:
Instantly jumping on a bandwagon because someone made a case you think to be convincing is misinformed. Instead, let me recommend that we meet a case that someone proposes and try to either make it stronger or debunk it. None of this "Glad we agree, vote this person!" stuff.


Wait what? Voting on somebody because "somebody" (actually, I think several people) made a good case against them is a bad idea?

Secondly, there have been a couple of good cases against you. To summarize off the top of my head: I've suspected you for a while, ever since my post about voting habits. At the time it was pretty much a hunch, and I kinda ignored it after era flipped green. Nova posted a good analysis of your filter -- you really haven't done much to get information out of anybody, and your motives have been opaque. I happened to agree with all of it, for one of the few times all game. I posted a case based on my reads of the rest of the game (ie, me and nova town, one of blueyD/Bocki town, and you're the last that could be mafia). Everything does seem to point to you right now IMO.


Now let's think about this for just a moment. It's LYLO for the town. All the votes go on me. Everyone agrees without a second thought. Whoever is in the mafia feels no need to defend me, because if the lynch on me goes through, the game is over and mafia wins.


I hardly think "without a second thought" is accurate. Combining what I posted above with the fact that the town can't afford to split votes, you can't be too surprised to be under the gun here. Yes, the mafia has no reason to defend anybody. If they defend one of their own who is a lynch target, it will raise huge amounts of suspicion on that person tomorrow. If they defend a town, well, that's just dumb because of what you posted.


From my point of view, 2 of these 3 are definitely mafia. 100% no doubt in my mind it is 2 out these three: Bocki, LazinCajun, and NovaTerra. Operating from this perspective, we see that Bocki doesn't take much to be convinced to change his vote. He votes for BlueyD from the start, which is one of my strongest town reads. Then, with no additional information offerred or even thinking of a possibility that I'm not scum, Bocki changes his vote to me as soon as someone makes a case against me. I believe this to be in expectation of the bandwagon that followed against me, planning to keep the momentum in his favor against me. Bocki is my strongest scum read for this game.


I am genuinely confused on Bocki and BlueyD. At various points in the game, I've had both scum and town reads from both of them.

However, consider this: if Bocki is town, what would he gain by leaving his vote on BlueyD? BlueyD is basically in the same situation as Bocki, and he decided to switch his vote to you too. What else about Bocki gives you a scum read? What posts of his give you guilty vibes? You really have posted sufficient evidence to be convincing in my eyes.


Lazin seems the most intent on actually rooting out the mafia, and his focus on Bocki rather than on BlueyD or myself is a lot of proof of this from my standpoint of confidence in BlueyD and confidence in myself. I like that Lazin's eye is on Bocki through all of this and he agrees that voting on someone like me to root out a response is the right way to do it. I believe him to be the most willing to change his vote and be convinced that someone is mafia. Out of my 3 mafia reads, Lazin is the most likely to be town.


My eye is on you, Bocki, and BlueyD. I haven't come up with a good case for or against BlueyD yet, but Bocki and BlueyD will be my focus for the remainder of the game. One of either me or Nova will likely end up assassinated at the end of the upcoming night cycle if the game still continues, so it is important for us to get our opinions in before then.


That brings us to NovaTerra. He posts a huge amount of fluff in the thread. He mostly spends his time calling out other peoples' arguments without offering any counter argument of his own. He just lets people know what's wrong with their argument. The two times he has posted a long analysis on somebody, they have both been town. Earlier in the thread, he made a long post against era, going post by post and trying to make each of his posts sound as mafia as possible. Now, he's come back with a long post against me saying that I am scum. I know myself to be town, so this second long post against a town member leads me to believe he already knows I'm town. Him immediately getting a bandwagon going instead of looking for some discussion also shows this to me. I believe NovaTerra to be the second scum over Lazin at this point.


The strongest point here is that Nova has been incorrect in analysis 2 times. Guess what? I have too. I voted for those people as well, yet you read me as town and nova as scum. This is pretty inconsistent logic. I could very easily interpret that as you trying to make me suspicious of a townie Nova after I posted that he could be making an amazing mafia play.


Anyway, as to NovaTerra's argument... he starts off focused on the inactivity. He doesn't even entertain the possibility that there is a reason for laying low besides being mafia. He jumps right on the inactivity as a certain mafia read and in fact dedicates half his long post to talking about my inactivity. You could've justified voting me based on inactivity earlier in the game as you could say that I "wasn't adding much to the game." But at this point, it's easy to call out a lurker as mafia and get them lynched based on the limited information that has been brought out on your target.


So what's your reason for laying low besides being mafia? You have no reason to hide now, because if you do, you're lynched.

Secondly, there's limited information on you because of the persona you've presented during the game: Namely, you haven't posted much at all. When people were saying they had null reads on you, you still didn't post. It has only been under direct pressure that you've posted any sort of content at all.


He calls me out a lot in this post as well for supposed contradictions. I change my mind about BlueyD and all of a sudden that's a major contradiction and I'm scum? No, I changed my mind about BlueyD and choose to focus my investigation elsewhere. Changing one's mind doesn't make one scum, it makes one intelligent. You have to look at the game as it develops and see what's really going on. And try to look past peoples' posts and speculate reasons for them playing as they do. You all scream MAFIA, but that's not the only reason someone would want to sit back.


You know what the best (maybe only) defense of this argument would be? Posting a reasoned argument as to why you changed your mind, with posts from BlueyD to illustrate your point. You still refuse to post substantial arguments.

No, I don't think I'll be changing my vote based on this post. I'm going to devote the rest of my time to more opaque players.
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 09 2012 19:54 GMT
#356
I'm gonna make this post short and simple.

I am the Sane Cop. I investigated Gossemerr night 1 and he was innocent, and BlueyD night 2 and he was innocent. This is as simple as that. Any further attacks on me are ill warranted. I was hoping Gossemerr would survive so I could 100% prove who the mafia were, but that is not the case. I can only narrow it down to the 3 I mentioned. I've been laying low all this time so as not to attract the attention of either town for lynching or mafia for shooting. Obviously I'm the most "worthless" to the town up to this point so mafia wouldn't shoot me, and the focus was on other people earlier.
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 09 2012 19:57 GMT
#357
I'll reiterate - NovaTerra, LazinCajun, and Bocki are the ONLY POSSIBLE candidates for mafia.
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 20:37 GMT
#358
Strangely enough, that post is consistent with your goofy behavior all game long. If you do end up flipping town, I hope you learn this is why lurky play can be bad.

Does anybody wish to counterclaim? Note that being a doctor here would be sufficient for directly counterclaiming, as the town is limited to 2 blues.

Sadly Nova, your read of me was wrong, and I'm as green as this guy:

[image loading]
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 20:38 GMT
#359
EBWOP: your read that I'm blue was wrong*
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 09 2012 20:48 GMT
#360
On April 10 2012 05:37 LazinCajun wrote:
Strangely enough, that post is consistent with your goofy behavior all game long. If you do end up flipping town, I hope you learn this is why lurky play can be bad.

Does anybody wish to counterclaim? Note that being a doctor here would be sufficient for directly counterclaiming, as the town is limited to 2 blues.

Sadly Nova, your read of me was wrong, and I'm as green as this guy:



Similarly, if you guys vote for me anyway and are NOT mafia and I flip blue, I hope you learn to at least try to think about all the targets before setting your sights locked on the guy whose play you claim is consistent with the role they claimed.
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