Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia IX

On March 22 2012 23:42 BlueyD wrote:
People I consider to be lurkers right now, until further notice:

Seviro (one useless post, but he's there)
Rise of Fenix (one useless post calling me a townie for posting first, I want his opinion on day 1 lynching)
Ninja4Ever (he did say he would post later)

No one is entirely inactive, but most people seem to agree to lynch a lurker day 1. This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker.

On Gossemer's early vote for Mementoss: He was q

On March 23 2012 23:55 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Time to bring another suspect to the table.

Introductory post. Pretty much no content other than saying he'll post again later.


Wants to pressure for lurker lynch when this is pretty much established in town, the whole paragraph goes on about how lurking is bad which has pretty much been established already. Somewhat defends lurkers in the same post which is odd.


Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people.



Nothing of real worth here.


These are exactly the type of contributions that scum is fine with doing, as they don't really 'help' the town in any way. The Rise of Fenix train is going nicely, which if he's just a bad townie is fine for mafia.


Are you suddenly suggesting to no lynch? We've pretty much all agreed that not lynching day 1 is bad because of lack of information. People should vote on suspicion regardless.


Continuing on with something that really isn't that crucial and if people agree to 8 hours instead of 6 there's nothing groundbreaking that will be decided.

Based on all these posts that pretty much say nothing at all and seem to want to blend in most of all which seems like scum behaviour to me, though it's just a suspicion, I'm voting for Seviro for now. At worst it'll spark some more discussion.

##Vote Seviro

On March 22 2012 21:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Hey guys, just woke up, sorry for not replying yet. 3am is quite late for us Europeans, but I'm here now
This is my third or fourth game of TL Mafia, I've organized Insane Mafia before which was an absolutely insane game and a ton of fun. I'm also pro lynching someone on day 1 as lynches are the only reliable way to kill mafia. We don't know if there's a vigilante in the game, but I don't think we can count on it. We should also treat any roleclaims with suspicion. Don't blindly follow anyone that claims, or anyone that makes long posts. Think for yourself and don't jump on bandwagons. From what I've seen in other games this is generally what kills towns.
Mafia is by definition more organized so they're better at bandwagoning, though a smart mafia will never have everyone voting on one person. However, if there's any risk of a mafia getting lynched they'll normally switch their votes off so anyone that switches votes at the last minute should be viewed with suspicion.

On March 23 2012 05:39 Artanis[Xp] wrote:

Why would you not post your thoughts now instead of one hour before the deadline? We could actually discuss them if you post it now, there's no reason not to.

On March 24 2012 01:22 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
@Nova_Terra however bandwagoning on everything and making large posts that basically say "I agree" IS scummy, because the length of the post can make it seem like you're contributing when in fact you're not saying anything new. Sure, others have done this as well, but I haven't seen anyone else make such long posts without any real 'content'.

On March 24 2012 02:07 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Also, to my defense, if I was mafia I'd probably have a large accusatory post proofread by the other mafia. The chance of a slip like that happening in that case are much smaller. And to correct myself, when I said town I simply meant all players, not specifically town aligned.

On March 24 2012 07:57 BlueyD wrote:
Note: I haven't vote counted, but I'm still here for a few hours (MLG yay!) and will switch for Rise if we need a majority when the time limit gets near, but I would much prefer to see sc2master lynched.

On March 24 2012 08:38 BlueyD wrote:
Hint to Rise, if he's still around: Switching his vote to sc2system might let him stay alive another day.

On March 24 2012 05:58 sc2system wrote:
Hai all,

I am withdrawing my vote for Rise Of Fenix because I said in my post that if he starts caring more about the game that I will withdraw it.

That is one of the reasons I posted my vote very early so he can read it and decide If he is going to try to help the townies. If I am right the mafia will not all vote for the same person becuase that would make them stand out. I have seen some posts before when people accuse other people and others agree but not all of them vote, and they dont even accuse anyone else after that. (Hope you understand if you need a explenation of what I tried to say just ask [english is not my first language]).

##Vote: No Lynch

And I did write that I like to confuse people but that is only when they use invalid arguments that ruin the game. For example if we all vote on X becuase Y was killed by the mafia and Y accused X the previous day. This is an invalid argument so this is when I like to inverse the logic and I say: What if the mafia wanted us to think that and they get a double kill, or what if they knew that we knew that and they just did the first step. Confused? Good. And this only works with invalid arguments.

Hope that is all I wanted to say...

On March 24 2012 08:04 sc2system wrote:


Sorry I hit F5 (refresh but I was clicked out of the window)

I am so sorry =S

And I am not voting to kill Rise Of Fenix even though I would do becuase his comeback is bad.

But I am felling that the mafia is manipulating us and I believe that ROF is the person to kill. I believe that he is a villager so if you want to kill the a person that is lurking but is a villager (i believe) then go ahead. Becuase if we dont kill him that is only a extra person for the mafia to kill. One more thing is that if ROF is mafia it is possible that the mafia are killing one of them so they seem to not to be mafia becuase their vote killed a mafia member.

I cant decide so I am voting for a no lynch.

##unvote: virtu
##vote: no lynch

On March 25 2012 06:48 Artanis[Xp] wrote:

If there's no actual risk of them getting lynched there's no pressure. He was probably just planning to post anyway. If you indicate beforehand that you don't actually want to lynch lurkers then almost all of the pressure to add in a meaningful way dissipates very quickly.

On March 25 2012 06:50 BlueyD wrote:


You said that we should "we should put pressure on lurker but not lynch them to fast". That's a direct quote.

Well, the fastest we can lynch a lurker was the day 1 lynch, so that seemed to imply you were against lynching on day 1. Once that opinion of yours is in the open, the pressure value of your vote goes down a lot, so I don't get why you would say that.

On March 22 2012 20:41 Mementoss wrote:
Therefore, I say we lynch a lurker/useless poster day 1, unless we have a significant scum slip. Why is this beneifical to us the town, even though there is a good chance it will be a townie?
1) Helps narrow down the field for scum hunting later
2) Keeps the active ratio higher for discussion
3) Attempts to keep replacements out of the game, which are always difficult to read and deal with as one persons scum meta =/= the other persons.
.

On March 24 2012 01:43 Mementoss wrote:

Note the bolded/underlined, its both because its a very big mistake. A very big scum slip. Why is it such a huge deal? Because we have no clue if Nova_Terra is town. AT ALL. Here are the possibilities:

1) He is scum, he knows peoples roles, therefore he knows Nova_Terra is town. Slipped it by mistake.
2) He is scum, Nova_Terra is scum, he is quick to give the idea to the rest that Nova is confirmed town, when there is no proof behind it. Just saying it because Nova is active.
3) He is town, bad town play, making assumptions that lead to town not exploring all the possibilities, getting tunnelled away from someone (See me as mafia SNMM VIII)

Dat scum slip

On March 23 2012 10:07 froggynoddy wrote:
Wow. Michaelthe, I'm not sure if you are bad town or bad scum. Regardless, you seem pretty bad.

You're first post states (after day 1) that you are for lurker lynch:



You're second post has no content:



Your third point is some very weak finger pointing:



There is pretty much nothing to go by. Your content is zilch, you are putting suspicion on people who have more content than you; I have argued that forcing lurkers to post is beneficial to town, more convincingly than you have (as has seviro and to a certain extent Nova_Terra), yet you put a really weak case forward against three posters.

I'm not voting for you YET but you seriously need to shape up. Accusing players who have posted content in day 1 seems scummy to me as there is so little to go by.

Make a better case dude. (for all three of us)

On March 23 2012 07:19 michaelthe wrote:



Actually, completely by accident. He should be below sc2system and ninja, but above froggy.

I was tracking posts by quality and page by assigning a value to each post from 0 (greeting, basic chatter), 1 (very basic, but maybe an opinion), 2 (basic thoughts), or 3 (solid attempt at analysis for day1). Best I could do for day1... I suspect filters and exact content will matter more on day 2 or 3+

The scores are as follows:

sc2system: 0,0 (a few posts on day1 I lumpped I think)
Ninja: 0,0
Froggy: 0,1,1

And, as you said and I missed:
Fenix: 1,1 (Argentina)


So I will add him to the list, I guess in fairness I will give him 8 hours from this post, so an extra 40 minutes or whatever

Revised list:
1. Sc2system
2. Ninja
3. Rise of Fenix
4. Froggy

On March 26 2012 03:10 michaelthe wrote:

Initial Day 2 Thoughts
At the end of day1, I reread the argument between Seviro and Artanis. While I was pretty sure Artanis was scum, I thought Seviro's reponse was absurd. I came to the conclusion that one of these two were most likely scum... Since Artanis is now mostly-confirmed, the attack on Seviro gained another look.

On Seviro:

(This is based heavily on his filter, pull it up if you want to see specific posts, this is already long enough without them all)
First substantial post after initial wave of basic crap:



He is suggesting a policy lynch based on not voting within an 8 hour deadline. The reason policy lynches are bad is because it removes analysis and focuses only on the policy. This one specifically means someone would be a lynch target simply for voting 4 hours from the deadline rather than 8. If you get scum to meet the deadline, the scum get a free town kill.

Seviro's reponse to Artanis Attack. I was fairly certain Artanis was scum, after what I saw as a strong slip. But I think the vig claim was great (more on that later). I reread the Artanis / Servio post and thought Artanis' attack was simple (based on day1 stuffs..) but Serviro WAY overreacted with his defense. He went on to vote for Artanis in his defense, which is a TERRBIE move!

FOUR minutes later he states a willingness to go after Fenix...

After the Fenix train picks up some steam, he totally forgets about Artanis.

Then he changes OFF Artanis and... onto Virtu, for not being active enough. His acusations are extremely fickle. He ends the day by jumping on the same train as everyone, Fenix.

After Day1, he posts that he thinks sc2system is town. He has defended bad play of Fenix and SC2 as town. ONLY MAFIA KNOW WHO TOWNIES ARE!



He discusses the virtu vote as “pressure”. A vote with nothing behind it, with no case, nothing. He doesn't at all revisit his Artanis vote here.

His most recent posts finally address the Artanis vote, his reasoning is ABSURD:



He says it wasn't a chainsaw defense, but then pretty much describes a chainsaw defense. We have all been discussing the initial Seviro/Artanis issue, I think Seviro would rather see it buried.

On March 26 2012 14:34 michaelthe wrote:
Re Seviro Attack
You make two points about my ultimatum:
1) 3 out of the 4 people I posted as lurkers are now dead townies.
2) I didn't vote until 23 hours after my 8 hour ultimatum.

Reponses:
1) two are dead because they are bad townines. This is the reason they were on the inactive list, this is the reason they were selected to die. The reason they are dead and on the list of inactives has the same root, this in no way makes their deaths have a causal relationship to my list. This should be completely easy to see by anyone.
2) My ultimatum was an attempt to force lurkers to post. All of them actually posted. Fenix spammed useless content, one said “I'm awake”, one said “Im drunk”. No one strictly failed, it was only mildly successful at making people post.

On Artanis, you make two points:
1) I targest Artanis after we had two good targets to lynch
2) I was the second vote for Artanis, not the first

I refute both of these points with one simple point: Artanis' slip was a major one. Artanis himself said so. Every Mafia guide says so. It ended up being a complete accident, but there was no way to tell this at the time. At the time, this was one of the strongest pieces of objective information we had.


Your claims are terrible, they have no weight, I find them very artificial. There are a few people who have said “oops, that does look scummy”, but I have not with the above. My responses are simple, and straightforward to your meritless claims. I think you are artificially trying to make a case.

On March 27 2012 00:21 BlueyD wrote:
Seviro, let me repost the 3 things you consider defenses of Rise, with bolded parts:







Okay, so he plays poorly, looks suspicious, and feels like obvious scum to you. Great defense! It doesn't feel like you're defending him at all to me, since you bring up something I can bold in every single post. I'm not at 1/1 or at 1/4 now, I'm at 4/4.

Truth is when someone looks this bad, we lynch him to know what he is. That's how the game is played. He was a decent lynch target from the start and the only defense you could have brought out was "someone else looks even worse", as I did.

Never try to defend me, by the way.