EPTSurprisingly Normal Mini Mafia IX - Page 3
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12971 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12971 Posts
##unvote: Seviro ##vote: Michaelthe | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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##unvote: Michaelthe ##vote: Seviro | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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Pretty sure town: Gossemerr, virtu 50/50: BlueyD, Ninja4ever Leaning scum: Nova_Terra Almost sure scum: Michaelthe That's how I view it at this point. And now I'm going to need to catch some sleep. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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Also, to town: Don't get too worried about WIFOM regarding mafia. They have no choice but to lynch michaelthe the next day because of the massive suspicion on him. Even if he gets a quick 7 votes that doesn't mean that he has to be town. I find Ninja4ever's case stronger than virtu's as well given virtu is still trying to put the effort in to help town, clearly still invested in the game despite family troubles and came to vote for the lynch. This alone makes him fairly green in my book as I don't think you'd view voting on the lynch is as important when scum. My only sidenote is that I'm still torn between BlueyD and Nova. Both have some good and some bad, but there's something about Bluey that does give me the feel that he's town though I can't quite put my finger on it. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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+ Show Spoiler + On March 27 2012 10:50 Seviro wrote: OK, I don'T have much time before my lynch so I'll try to make it fast and clear. Maybe you'll give more credit to what say when you'll stop assuming i'm scum. I'll give you my present thought on the mafia team since it is the last time I can make any claim. First thing first, based on the recents post, i'm less and less sure that Nova is a scum. The main point against him is his meta shift from last game which don'T say much since it was his first game and in the everyone was thinking he was a scum because of his play style. I'll say there's 60% chance of him flipping scum. My main suspect at 95% sure in my opinion is, as you may know, Micaelthe. I said about all I had to say about him but i'll talk about his vote switch. He switched his vote now when it was clear for everyone that I was being lynched. I think that since my death can tell a lot about him (see Mementoss post about it), it was best for him to kill nova since his death doesn't tell anything about him. Also, he add that he'd want at least 6 vote so that scum don'T ninja switch and cancel the lynch which doesn'T make sense since there was 6 vote on me at the time. And for those who think that he wouldn't have made a case on me if he was scum, a lot of people were already suspicious about me so he just tried to get the train rolling (in which he succeeded). My second suspect which I am 80% sure is BlueyD. As Nova mentionned, after a good start of trying to get discussion roll, he kinda fell out of sight and didn't add anything useful. He did follow the bandwagon on me and nova, adding that I was taking credit for something that I didn'T did, which I refuted by adding the 3 post where I was actually doing what I was claiming. Post at which he answered by: + Show Spoiler + On March 27 2012 00:21 BlueyD wrote: Seviro, let me repost the 3 things you consider defenses of Rise, with bolded parts: Okay, so he plays poorly, looks suspicious, and feels like obvious scum to you. Great defense! It doesn't feel like you're defending him at all to me, since you bring up something I can bold in every single post. I'm not at 1/1 or at 1/4 now, I'm at 4/4. Truth is when someone looks this bad, we lynch him to know what he is. That's how the game is played. He was a decent lynch target from the start and the only defense you could have brought out was "someone else looks even worse", as I did. Never try to defend me, by the way. Post at which I didn't respond since I though it was obviously fake fact but some people seemed to agree with it so here is some clarification. See, when we bold what actually matters it takes another sense. But I don'T blame you, it was a trend in this game to take my word out of context and ignoring important part of my posts. Now for the third, I think he is among Virtu or Ninja4ever. I don'T have anything to back my claim but I feel like they are lurking too easily. By the way mafia, you did a great job of making me feel scummy, so great job in fact that the vote is unanimous so good job on that. With that said, don't take what I said here for the truth but please investigate enough to make yourself an opinion. with 3 scum and 4 townie left after the night, the bandwagon can easily go in a wrong way. I put my fate into your hand Town Fellow. Avenge my death and win this for me please. Cheers, Good luck Good game, I follow this closely and I hope my death won't be in vain. I don'T think I'll post again so peace out, love you all :D (except scum team obiously). Adding to that, I'd like to point out again I find Ninja4ever more suspicious than Virtu simply based on that Virtu came back to vote despite family issues, which I find to be more likely for town than for mafia. It's mildly WIFOM, but so is everything in this game. That doesn't mean Ninja4ever is neccesarily mafia, but it does make Virtu greener than him. At this point I'm fairly convinced that Michaelthe has to die. Regarding MichaelThe's recent post: Not impressed. His style of play from the start of the game to the middle of the game changed so much that I have to presume there's been some communication between him and the mafia team that has made him shape up his play. I'm pretty sure that he knows he's doomed, so the reason for his post can only be to cover up the mafia. This leads me to believe either Mementoss or Nova. I highly doubt both of them as that'd be too much of a risk, but I find one of them being Mafia fairly likely. I find Mementoss somewhat hard to read but he does have a green aura around him. The two big red exclamation marks though are the response to Michaelthe's post, which he answered to by indicating he made a lapse of judgement; 1. omfg, michael that was the stupidest move ever if you are town. Seriously, there is no town logic behind it. I thought of what you said too, that last minute mafia could vote switch for the no lynch due to us not having virtu, but guess what. It would be fucking stupid because it would bring all eyes on them and we could connect the dotes and kill there whole team in a couple swipes. As of now switching your vote makes a no-lynch more likely so you completely contradicted yourself. I am so confused right now, GJ mafia your doing your job. Alright, michael is now officially looking scum for me. Even though we do think michael is mafia, his post was such a clear bad play that I find it highly unlikely it was a mafia ploy. If anything, I think it might've been double mindgames now (a plan so silly they can't help but think I'm town) which would be fairly ingenous. 2. Gossmerr pointed out that Mementoss is making connections between players, whereas earlier in the game he said: On March 22 2012 23:38 Mementoss wrote: Another thing I learned from last game and I think Nova_Terra will agree with me is, making connections (or anti-connections) between players is absolutely useless until the town flips its first scum. Keep track of it for all means, just no need to post it until scum is flipped and it can be used with case analysis (can't stand alone as a case). Cause you can literally find these connections between most players, its just the nature of the game, and the town trying to work as a team. A clear contradiction. Mementoss, please explain. These posts are the chink in Mementoss' otherwise good posting record, but in general he's been a lot more helpful than Nova, so I'd suspect Nova more. The amount of effort Mementoss also puts into his posts still at this point in the game seem more like a desperate attempt to still get victory out of the claws of defeat rather than a play you really need to do as Mafia at this point. The chance of Town still coming back into this is fairly unlikely (though possible, keep your chins up guys!) which means Mafia would most likely go into minimal posting mode as to not screw a win up. BlueyD's case is shown excellently in Mementoss' post. Also suggesting that I might survive the night seems a bit silly, as I feel there's an almost zero chance on that. I also don't like the suggestion of lynching immediately tomorrow as it's MYLO tomorrow, but I'll expand on that a bit later in this post. He's also agreed with michael a lot and although that doesn't neccesarily say everything, it does raise some flags as Michael was still in the clear during all of this. Nova_Terra has been all over the place, earlier mostly posting short responses to everything, and later on started analyzing a bit more. This change in behaviour is suspicious at least, even though it was called for, any behavior change during a game of Mafia should be watched closely. The activity of all of Nova's posts also cluttered up the thread quite a bit and confusion is good for Mafia. I'll give him points for not immediately jumping on my case though, and he's the suspect I'm the least sure of. Given his many opinions, this case will become more clear as townies die at night as he had a lot of opinions and is therefore the best candidate to lynch last. Gossemerr seems fairly green, though somewhat inactive. He scrutinizes posts but uses good logic for it. He hasn't posted too much though which is a shame as especially now town will really need him to be active. I wouldn't blindly trust him just yet, not until some more analysis is done. What he has said however makes sense so I'm leaning town on him. Ninja4ever I have absolutely no read on. He simply hasn't put in the effort to really analyze cases. He did oppose Nova_Terra fairly early when Seviro was on the chopping block which leads me to believe that if Nova is mafia, Ninja is not, and the opposite. This because Nova was not even close to getting lynched and his case put him on the map. Since if we mislynch we lose anyway, the benefit we get out of this knowledge is that if Nova flips red, Ninja is probably not mafia, and the other way around. Plays fairly defensive and reactionary, but so did Seviro and I feel it's more a preferred style then a mafia tell. MYLO: Tomorrow will be MYLO. The usual standard during MYLO is to not lynch anyone so that less suspects are left. Given that there will be no confirmed townies left after my death, I'd advocate for a no lynch and get more information out, and analyze with the thought of MichaelThe flipping scum. The benefit of waiting a night is that one potential townie will die. The field being thinned out is a good thing in this case since it won't lose us a day. MYLO is the only situation in which it's a good idea to no lynch, and I advocate everyone to not lynch during the next day. So, who do we lynch Master Artanis? Well, let's start with MichaelThe. Follow it up with BlueyD. And end on Nova_Terra Those are my three biggest suspects right now. Nova's lynch is the most meta though, so having more dead players could provide additional information regarding whether it's the right choice. And with that, I must depart this town for the gates of Valhalla. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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Let's get this shit started. ##Vote: Michaelthe | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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On March 28 2012 20:49 Mementoss wrote: A) Artanis' claim is fake, and/or mafia had a night vig for 2kp night one somehow. It seemed weird how the kill flavour were both identical. -> Our whole game thus far has been based on this one claim, it's closed setup and we have no idea how many of what roles there are. It seems like a mistake in a closed game to make this assumption. However, it is too risky to go back on what we have already decided to be truth. Therefore, if A) is true we the town have already lost. There is no chance that my claim can be fake at this point unless we have a vigilante that still hasn't spoken up, which I would find extremely unlikely given that it'd be a 1 for 1 trade at worst the previous day. In a closed setup, all potential roles are given and there is no additional Mafia kill role listed. It's also said that the kill flavor wouldn't provide any clues. This is a semi-open setup, that is, exact role counts will not be known, but the possible roles will be known. All roles presented here are not necessarily in the game, but no roles not included here are present. Regarding virtu, sucks to hear man, best of luck to your sister. Regarding the night kill: The only thing that explains it is if my analysis is correct and they want to create doubt. If they killed me, this would have no influence on Mementoss' position, nor that of mine since it'd prove my analysis. By killing Gossemerr they're creating doubt on Mementoss, plus Gossemerr was a good townie that just didn't post too much. They could've feared that he'd expand on his analysis and lock down on the mafia players. With michaelthe, I'm pretty sure we have a mafia at this point. I don't think Mafia would be trying to pull tricks on us if he wasn't, because they know it's still neccesary. However, the only one that was really pushing against Mementoss was Gossemerr, which despite all WIFOM should be taken seriously. @Nova_Terra; I'm advocating your lynch depending on who dies. I'd expand on that but that could make mafia change their targets based on if you're mafia or not, so I'll let the town decide on that since I'm pretty sure I won't be alive for the final lynch, if we get that far. You may have accused BlueyD, but it was weak at best and there was no real risk of him getting lynched at that point. The overall posting record is more important. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12971 Posts
 @Ninja4ever. please vote for michaelthe. If he's mafia and you haven't voted they could all unvote him and vote for no lynch at 5am and we'd still lose. It's actually a risk in this case because if we don't lynch we lose immediately so it doesn't matter if the mafia are known then. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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This leaves BlueyD, Nova_Terra and Ninja4ever with 2 mafia between them. Mementoss is practically green too at this point. BlueyD appears to be the best target at first. Ninja is a massive gamble where I really can't say much about. What speaks for him is that michaelthe did put him in a few lists early on which could've potentially added badly, though mafia can put other mafia in there too in case they get killed. Still, despite the WIFOM I'd find this a slight point in favor of Ninja4ever. Before the suspicion went to Michaelthe, he tried to start a bus on Nova_Terra as well which speaks in favor of Nova_Terra, more so than Ninja4ever's case. However, one interesting little bit; In all of Michaelthe's post, BlueyD's name is mentioned only once. BlueyD on the other hand did throw a FoS at Michael. This was however after Seviro's post where he already threw Michaelthe in front of the train and this looked to be unsalvagable. To me, this makes BlueyD the most suspicious of the three. So right now I'd go with BlueyD and Ninja4ever as the two remaining mafia. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12971 Posts
@Town I'm probably going to die this night. With my last breath, I suggest you trust Mementoss. I feel he's our only chance at town victory at this point. Unless Mafia for some reason decides to kill him rather than me, please remember my last post. I suspect BlueyD and Ninja4ever (Janaan now) the most, with Nova_Terra behind him. I don't suspect Virtu for reasons posted above, and Mementoss has been a valuable aid in town. On March 28 2012 11:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote: And with that, I must depart this town for the gates of Valhalla. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pX1Swx9MJv8 | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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+ Show Spoiler + @Janaan welcome! @Everyone as you may have noticed I've said that Mementoss is basically as green as me. That was not true and it's an attempt in the case that if he is town as well, he may get hit instead which would clear him and still give us one confirmed townie; me. Looking back at his posts there's quite a few things that I find interesting. Exhibit A: Michaelthe scumtell omfg, michael that was the stupidest move ever if you are town. Seriously, there is no town logic behind it. I thought of what you said too, that last minute mafia could vote switch for the no lynch due to us not having virtu, but guess what. It would be fucking stupid because it would bring all eyes on them and we could connect the dotes and kill there whole team in a couple swipes. As of now switching your vote makes a no-lynch more likely so you completely contradicted yourself. I am so confused right now, GJ mafia your doing your job. Alright, michael is now officially looking scum for me. Michaelthe came up with a bad mafia plan which prompted Mementoss to instantly reply to it and claim that he's scum. The good part about this is that Michaelthe turned out to be mafia. The bad part; it's a terrible mafia play because you draw attention to yourself with it and it's a dumb plan which anyone with logic behind him can point out. It's too obvious, and Mementoss is smart enough to know that. Yet, he still decided to post about it. Exhibit B: Inconsistency On March 22 2012 23:38 Mementoss wrote: Another thing I learned from last game and I think Nova_Terra will agree with me is, making connections (or anti-connections) between players is absolutely useless until the town flips its first scum. Keep track of it for all means, just no need to post it until scum is flipped and it can be used with case analysis (can't stand alone as a case). Cause you can literally find these connections between most players, its just the nature of the game, and the town trying to work as a team. Four days later.. On March 26 2012 21:38 Mementoss wrote: If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips town, Michael would be highly suspicious and so would Nova Terra. If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips scum, Michael would be off my radar, and Nova would still remain suspicious. Making connections before anyone flips scum. Very inconsistent and makes no sense. His defense when Gossemerr pointed this out was this: How is the above a connection? I did not connect 2 players, I basically said what information we could get from the flip. As for the lynch, I actually think going for a Nova lynch in a lynch right or lose situation is a really risky move. And would rather go for these new suspicions from the flip/Seviro's confirmed town last dieing words. I'd consider it a very clear connection. Saying what information you can get from the flip basically equals a connection. Exhibit C: Back and forth pulling with michaelthe Michaelthe, knowing he will die, decides to accuse Mementoss. What's the best way to make someone look innocent if you're scum? Accuse them. Michaelthe went from a period of semi-inactivity to accusing Mementoss as much as he could, though not very effectively. Circumstancial evidence, but it does point towards Mementoss. Sacrificing Michaelthe would also reveal him to be a very reliable player, and given mafia only needs one mislynch to win at this point, a small price to pay to ensure at least one mislynch. Exhibit D: Gossemerr's death Before Day 3, there were 2 'town leaders', and one 'deputy' if I may, being Gossemerr. Mementoss and I mostly led the town and Gossemerr came up with some dirt on Mementoss, and showed that despite not having posted much he could start doing so now and turn town on Mementoss after all. Killing me would not sway town away from that. Killing Gossemerr and preventing further analysis would, and anything else could be blamed on WIFOM. Exhibit E: Voting record On the first day, he mentions he wants to kill a lurker unless someone makes a significant scum slip. Said scum slip befell on me, yet he did not push for my lynch but rather that of Rise Of Fenix, and later sc2system after his posts. Also, he first votes a lot for Nova_Terra then later decides to move targets to everyone but Nova_Terra. This leads me to believe that if Mementoss is indeed mafia, his buddy is Nova_Terra as he can quote past posts and note how he distanced himself from Nova. It must be noted however that Momentoss didn't instantly bus me when I made the so called Scum slip, which does improve his image as a townie. Exhibit F: Scum slip On March 27 2012 20:49 Mementoss wrote: We want people to keep the discussion up or the town is doomed. Don't worry about dieing, worry about saying something that leads to a scum kill after your death. Honestly, I don't think anyone should be worried about dieing. There are only two possible mafia kills in my eyes. 1. Artanis 2. Mementoss Probably not me anymore because I am thought of as less green than before by a couple townies. Something Michaelthe pointed out. I don't consider it very significant as I made a 'scum slip' too but was townie, nevertheless it is worth nothing. The meta case by Gosse I didn't find particularly interesting either; looking like a super green townie is always in your best interest, whether mafia or town, so I found that a weak reason. With this post, I'm not calling for a lynch of Mementoss. I'm asking town to look at him critically and then make a unified decision. I would suggest following Virtu's lead, because I believe him to be the closest thing to a green that town has right now, and I'm pretty sure town would at least not be led by a mafia, in which case we've lost already. Mementoss has also said a lot of things that made sense and given the amount of posts he's made it's possible that these are simply some of the mistakes he's made. However, there's also a very real chance that he's mafia. Read over the thread again and draw your own conclusions. GG Mafia. | ||
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