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Just checked the filters of everyone and noticed Gossemerr has posted almost no content either. First post was a joke vote on Mementoss, after that he's just gone after Rise of Fenix and sc2system as well. I'd like to see more content by him.
On March 25 2012 06:43 Seviro wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote:
And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...
This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.
If there's no actual risk of them getting lynched there's no pressure. He was probably just planning to post anyway. If you indicate beforehand that you don't actually want to lynch lurkers then almost all of the pressure to add in a meaningful way dissipates very quickly.
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On March 25 2012 06:46 Mementoss wrote:
Why you want virtu to post while not mentioning people lurking harder than him? He at least had one good post, while sc2system and ninja4ever have none. Make them post too.
My thoughts on the Nova_Terra case vs BlueyD felt very weak and forced. I read the points and it felt like he was trying to put some scummy behaviour into posts that weren't scummy to begin with. Since when is taking leadership a scum trait, it's a very risky thing to do as scum unless you are good at it as it gives you more connections to more players and allows most posts for people to analyse. Also a couple of the posts were taken out of context of what was happening in the thread at the time, eg, I tried to force BlueyD for an initial vote, before he left. Cause the town needed votes, and vote were not happening.
Also I would kinda like prelim votes to start as early as second 24 hours of the day. As at least it provokes discussion and allows plenty of time for defense/ change majority. As we all live in different time zones. Im going out tonight so I probably will not post, until tommorrow.
sc2system has posted plenty of bad posts, I'm fairly certain he won't improve on that any time soon. He's not going to be much use to the town imo. Ninja4ever mentioned he was going to be AFK today so I'll put pressure on him tomorrow. How come you didn't mention Gossemerr?
Taking leadership without solid reasoning is a scummy thing to do. You're attempting to get people to follow what you say, and you can convince people by taking a position of authority, even if not earned. Posts can be taken out of context due to the filter option which is what people will usually use to analyze one person's posts, so an advice to anyone analyzing players; make sure to read the thread alongside it so you remember what was on the minds of town at the time.
I'm good with the prelim votes starting as early as possible, as long as people will be present later too to change them should things develop.
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On March 25 2012 07:02 Seviro wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On March 25 2012 06:48 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2012 06:43 Seviro wrote:On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote:
And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...
This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play. If there's no actual risk of them getting lynched there's no pressure. He was probably just planning to post anyway. If you indicate beforehand that you don't actually want to lynch lurkers then almost all of the pressure to add in a meaningful way dissipates very quickly. On March 25 2012 06:50 BlueyD wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2012 06:43 Seviro wrote:
This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play. You said that we should "we should put pressure on lurker but not lynch them to fast". That's a direct quote. Well, the fastest we can lynch a lurker was the day 1 lynch, so that seemed to imply you were against lynching on day 1. Once that opinion of yours is in the open, the pressure value of your vote goes down a lot, so I don't get why you would say that. Had he no post, I would have left my vote on him, the thing is he did and his post was satisfying in my eyes so I switched to someone else that was getting pressured hard but was not defending or anything. Also, I think that these kind of early vote are a good thing so that later in the game we can see a pattern if someone seems to be posting only when he is getting pressured/voted.
So in fact you would be willing to lynch a lurker. Why didn't you just say that from the start?
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I'm the vig that killed sc2system. Unless anyone wishes to counterclaim (PLEASE DO), this makes me 100% town as there's no mafia roles that could cause a double kill. I'll give more concise thoughts tomorrow.
Had a few other suspects I wanted to go for but considered every one of them too suspicious, and Day 2 would probably be too focused on sc2system if he didn't die this night. Didn't have the balls to go for people just based on a mild suspicion, but I felt I had to prove my innocence to prevent a mislynch this day given my dumb slip on day1. Got my eye on a few people which I'll elaborate on in the morning. Revealing since I'm now effectively a townie and this way I can give some guidance.
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On March 25 2012 14:08 BlueyD wrote:
On Artanis's vigi claim: I'll see whether anyone counterclaims then decide whether to believe you or not.
If you look at the roles, you'll see it's impossible that both hits were Mafia, meaning there has to be a Vigilante in play. For Mafia to claim a vigilante hit would be extremely risky given the original vig is now just a townie and can counterclaim, leading the town to trade 1 for 1 at worst. Mafia will never do this, so I'm confirmed town unless you stretch your logic reaaaalllllly thinly. The flip side to this is that I'm pretty much guaranteed to die Night 2, but at least you can be sure that I've got the town's best interests in mind for this day.
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My biggest suspects right now are Seviro, michaelthe and Gossemerr.
When looking for Mafia, you don't look for obvious 'scumtells'. Mafia isn't just going to have a little sign that says "hey! I'm mafia, please lynch me!", but you look for what they contribute to town. As Mafia you want to say as little as possible with as many words as possible, and Seviro has been the person I've seen do this the most. Nova_Terra spams a lot as well, but he gives his opinion on everything, and he didn't instantly try to throw me under the bus when my situation looked bad, and kept thinking for himself. One thing that does speak for Seviro is that he didn't instantly throw RoF under the bus, but given all the other suspects at the time (other than Ninja4ever but he was never in any real harm) were town, that doesn't need to mean much. He also used a chainsaw argument against me after I accused him, voting me for little reason seemingly only because I voted on him and some minor suspicions. Regardless of alignment, that's bad.
Michaelthe played a very strange game so far, basically making lists and giving general advice as well as asking for it, plus making the lurkers post up. All townie things, but also things that were already being done by other people. An easy way to get townie cred where it could be misplaced. Posted some analysis on Fenix explaining why he thought the lynch was bad, but went along with lynching RoF anyway. Could it be that he knew he was innocent from the start? Perhaps. Then comes my 'scum slip' which he suddenly jumps on. This makes no sense given his previous game style which was very distant and analytical. It's a 180 degree turn in how he plays which is very rare. It could be that he thought my 'scum slip' was so significant that it warranted this change of style, but I find it very suspicious at the least.
Gossemerr opened in a joking way, then creates the RoF lynch train based on RoF's post making not much sense. This play I think is fine if he was town too though. Jumps from RoF to sc2system a bit too easily too after RoF was confirmed town. It also makes sense that one Mafia would want to start the bandwagons while the other two 'reluctantly' post to lynch him in the end so that the mafia aren't connected as much. This however is more of a general mafia argument then specifically for Gossemerr. Accuses sc2system again for playing dumb when it's become pretty apparent that he's just not a very good townie. Uses chainsaw argument when I accuse him which is a super scummy thing to do (if you don't know, a chainsaw argument is accusing the accuser rather than defending yourself). This is something Seviro used earlier too. It's true that he started the bandwagon on RoF. What I also find weird is that he first calls for sc2system to get killed, then doesn't want the vigilante to kill sc2system after all. Given he flipped town that does make Gossemerr less suspicious, but he said it so late that it was unlikely that any vigilante would still change their target so I'm not sure it matters too much. Reading over this again though I'd say Gossemerr is the weakest case of the three.
To all of you out there, please analyze these three people well. To Seviro, michaelthe and Gossemerr; refute these points and analyze the others to make your case that you are indeed townie. The best way to defend yourself is to contribute. Given that I'm going to be the only one in this game you can trust, you'll know I'm not trying to redirect you onto players that aren't scum. Let's see if we can turn this around. I've got a lot of work I need to do today though so I can't guarantee I can react to any posts quickly.
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On March 25 2012 23:23 Mementoss wrote:
3. We gain information from the vig claim, that Artanis is in fact a town player if the claim is correct. Im not saying we can confirm off the claim, but its a good tidbit.
There is absolutely no possibility that I'm not Vigilante, since it's a 1 for 1 trade for Mafia at best. If there's anyone out there that would like to claim responsibility for the vig hit, please do so. It'd make absolutely no sense for Mafia to make a 1 for 1 trade.
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On March 25 2012 23:53 Mementoss wrote:
I think you are vigilante, but Im just saying because you claimed it doesn't mean its true. Looking at the way it happened it seems though you are vigilante. Mafia could claim vig, but someone for sure would counter claim, and it wouldn't really make sense to bring attention to themselves with the fake claim. You posted you were vig without fear immediately even though sc2system flipped town. I am 95% sure you are vig, but its not 100% till you flip.
Nothing is ever 100% certain, of course. However if you look at it logically it'd be an extremely bad play for Mafia as the real vigilante can just speak up and force a 1 for 1 trade. Unless that happens, you're pretty much going to have to trust me as it's the closest thing you're going to have to a confirmed town.
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I'd rather we stop arguing about my reliability though, I think I've proven that enough by now. I'd like to hear other people's opinions on my suspects.
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Well, it mostly seems like an apologetic post about playing different then normal. You said you've been holding back on analysis yet you come up with a massive post that basically details why you haven't been posting up to par. Instead of apologizing for it, go do some more analyzing! You're currently the prime suspect, so get a better case on someone else.
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On March 26 2012 21:38 Mementoss wrote:
I still think case-wise, the Nova_Terra case seems stronger to me, but Seviro is suspicious based on the context of his actions/posts, more than the actual post content.
This is my main reason that I'd rather go for Seviro than Nova_Terra as well. Something just doesn't sit right with me for the context of Seviro's posts, and it's exactly that pattern that I've often seen mafia players take in past games. They generally don't make large slipups, just try to not contribute to town while still typing a lot. When I pointed this out, he said I missed the point of his posts yet he never bothered to specify which 'point' that actually is.
For that reason;
##Vote: Seviro
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Also sad to hear Virtu. Wish you all the best.
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On March 27 2012 04:04 Mementoss wrote:
I actually really like BlueyD's point on Seviro, that he is kinda taking credit for something he didn't do. This alone is a better part of the case than most of the other analysis. The Seviro vote train moved a lot faster than the Nova one did though, which leaves me to wonder. All 3 mafia probably aren't on the same vote. They would split up to have less connections between them at least for now.
Except there is some unique cases, if both Nova and Seviro are scum obviously they are going to vote for the opposite. Also it is possible that Virtu is scum and since hes not voting we can't really look into it.
Mafia most likely has 3/8 active voters right now (if virtu is town) the fact that the Seviro vote is going a bit too smooth worries me.
I share your worries, but Mafia might be willing to let Seviro go at this point to look more like town. They already have an advantage and it could be worth saccing one mafia to ensure victory for the rest. Nova's case also came out of thin air as soon as I posted my three cases, which leads me to believe that mafia might've needed a fourth case to try and stretch out town as much as possible, especially after Grosmerr's case wasn't very convincing. Despite Nova's bad defense I still don't feel like he's mafia, if anything it feels more like bad townie play since it's such an unlikely mafia defense. This is all WIFOM though, but so is the argument of the Seviro train going too fast.
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On March 27 2012 04:20 Mementoss wrote:
Yes, Im so on the fence right now its unbelievable. It would be amazing if you were both scum buddies but that seems to be me just hoping hard. And yes I did note that Seviro did the exact same scummy thing as you.
It has to be so amazing to be host right now if only one of these two is mafia.
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On March 27 2012 04:57 Nova_Terra wrote:
Just want to make a brief analysis on Michaelthe.
in early game, he played aggressively to start out which i liked. however, since then, the quality of play has gone down substantially. i just took a foray into his filter.
I definitely think he goes a bit overboard on his ultimatum (which he didnt follow?) and the artanis slip thing. i can see the point of both, but he went a bit too off.
He had some wishy-washyness to his vote patterns, which can be explained a bit by avoiding no lynch, but it became apparent to me that ALL 3 of the people he switched between were/are town (as i think artanis is certain at this point). he jumped happily on every little mistake that has arisen throughout the game (refered to in some guide as cherry picking town mistakes i think).
After last game, i actually gave up on my "discrediting tell" philosophy, where if you call some analysis/case bad, it is often a scum move because cases which have a bad reaction to them are not thought of and taken as serious as one without any opinions on it so far. upon reading his filter, what i classified as aggressiveness in playstyle went right into discrediting and being just plain rude. He frequently has been calling points terrible and weak, even refusing to respond to a so called "weak case" made by seviro i believe. entirely wrong attitude.
it also seems likes hes going heavy into gossemerr without much behind it. not so sure why. I think gossemerr is leaning town, and in general his play has been helpful.
anyway, if seviro wasnt more suspicious at this point in time, i would be putting down michaelthe for this lynch (unless something else big came up). its likely that my vote tomorrow will be on michaelthe bar some other case developing.
Please be a replacement for virtu if nothng else. A modkill would really kill us i should think.
Wait what? He currently has zero votes and with 7 hours to go I highly doubt you could get enough votes on him still. This lynch is pretty much between you and seviro right now, we need to lynch a mafia. today. or we'll be wasting a day.
The fact that you want to lynch Michaelthe instead is suspicious to me. You should know that with 7 hours to go the chance of someone going from 0 to 5 votes is fairly unlikely.
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We need to make sure we get one of them guys. Since Seviro is my main suspect, I'm asking all townies to put their votes on Seviro. Right or wrong, you can at least be sure I'm not scum. This way the vote won't be influenced by scum.
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On March 27 2012 08:10 Mementoss wrote:
Thank god for a non-mod kill on virtu. Seviro is the easy lynch right now, but is that what we want? If its easy it probably has two mafia supporting it. And if mafia is supporting it, we either caught nova and seviro as scum bed buddies and there bussing, or they are just playing that we are too inactive to get a vote switch. If we try really hard/have the activity we could lynch off Nova's or Michaels ass.
Or perhaps that's just exactly what Mafia wants us to think because they realize it's the only chance to save Seviro at this point. Too much WIFOM, and you're questioning it to the point that I'm starting to question your legitimacy.
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There's just been too many mafia tricks this day. They're definitely doing a good job throwing us off. The only reason I can imagine for this is because there's a mafia on the chopping block. Seviro was the likely candidate to get lynched and him voting for himself makes more sense for scum then town, since it's basically just another trick in the book. Tricks are things mafia uses a lot more often than town. Too many attempts at confusion lead me to believe we've got the right target.
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On March 27 2012 08:04 Mementoss wrote:
omfg, michael that was the stupidest move ever if you are town. Seriously, there is no town logic behind it. I thought of what you said too, that last minute mafia could vote switch for the no lynch due to us not having virtu, but guess what. It would be fucking stupid because it would bring all eyes on them and we could connect the dotes and kill there whole team in a couple swipes. As of now switching your vote makes a no-lynch more likely so you completely contradicted yourself. I am so confused right now, GJ mafia your doing your job.
Alright, michael is now officially looking scum for me.
This really confuses me and makes me suspect you might be scum. Michael's post looks so much more like ignorance than deception; he clearly just didn't think it through properly, and it's a lot more likely now that he's just a confused townie rather than mafia. Given how you're clearly not a dumb player, a very rational explanation to this would be willful ignorance. Putting another suspect on the list is always a good thing for Mafia, so there's plenty of reason for it. I won't exclude the possibility that this was just a lapse of judgement though. It's just extremely clear to me that Michael is just a confused townie.
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That said, that's still far from a case on you. We're still killing Seviro tonight peeps.
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EPT
