EPT
Now that we have enough data, I think I can positively figure out the scumteam. I have this covered you guys.
Alright guys, welcome to this episode of Blazinghand's Votecount Analysis!
Let's take a look at how things have gone so far:
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/WbVPD.png)
Basically, we've got two factions at an impasse.
One one hand we've got Sent, VE, and myself who have voted together as a bloc. We've tried topass a team of Sent/VE/BH, offering Dirk as a substitude for Sent once.
On the other we've got Prpl, Dirk, Nav, and Palm, who have voted together as a bloc (except for when Navillus missed the Palmar vote). They've pushed the Palm/Dirk/Nav team.
Kita supported the VE/BH team once when it included Dirk in place of Sent.
Chaos liked it when it included Sent in place of Dirk.
Otherwise these two players have only voted Nay.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/Ecnhr.png)
This reflects the same information, with each players yay votes and nay votes so far broken down. For example, over the course of this game Sent has been willing to yayvote teams with BH, Dirk, and VE (and of course himself).
Looking at the setup, I think it's clear what's going on here. We need 5 votes to get a team to go forwards, right? Assuming the scum all go against the town, we're talking a 5/6 consensus among townies..
Now if we look at our existing "factions" (though even within the factions there is doubt amongst the members of each other's alignments:
BH, Sent, VE
Palm, Nav, Prpl, Dirk
Kita
Chaos
It's actually fairly unlikely that all three scum lined up into one faction and formed a voting bloc. Barring some colossal stupidity from town (we've been good about nayvoting teams that aren't perfect) a 3-member voting bloc like this will eventually get overridden. Here's what I think is going on, and is also the reason we've been having trouble putting together a good team:
1) Palmar originally picked his team (Palm/Dirk/Nav) to try to set up Nav as a "fall guy" until I called him out on it. It was going to be a one-saboteur group *assuming I'm correct about Dirk and Nav being town, which is what I'm beginning to think given my analysis so far*.
2) Prplhz has been backing up Palmar to try to get a scumteam over the line. His vote is instrumental and has almost gotten the scumteam to get a sabotage through twice now. Having both scum players oppose Palmar would require him to get the help of 4 of the 6 town players, rather than 3 of the 6, making things much harder for him.
3) The third scum IS NOT in Palmar's voting block. This is the real crux of my argument. One of the scum players is playing a "long game" and trying to set up for being picked for a later team after the initial sabotages. He's voting against Palmar and setting himself up to earn town cred when a Palmar-backed team fails.
So where is this third scum? Well, he could be Kita or Chaos, who think Dirk and Sent are scum, respectively. Kita (now) strikes me as unlikely, though, due to the fact that Kita has been willing to listen to reason and suggest what is imo a good team. He could be Chaos, but we'll know if that's the case in a moment when Chaos suggests his team.
But where would the third scum really be? He'd be in my faction, if he's smart. He's trying to create a "win win" d1 scenario, where both of the major groups being pushed have one scum on it. It would explain why town is having such a hard time getting this through-- there are a limited number of town players on both sides of the issue, and the scum aren't gonna flip their flops.
I'm positing that Sentinel is the third scum player. His level of activity and analysis has been acceptable at times, but I'm not sure he's really taken a hard look at the situation and offered good analysis. I think in part I was blinded by his buddying of me, and didn't take a close enough look. I think he was bluffing on the Dirk/BH/VE team, due to the anti-kita sentiment that infested the game at that moment, and he voted knowing that. A BH team wasn't going to pass with the Palmar group voting against me, and so he could safely vote Yay. And look at how he words it!
On February 25 2012 03:26 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
I'm going to yay and see what happens.
In the meantime, prplhz posted more shit math. If a team succeeds, that gives nothing about the number of scumplayers on the team because scum can elect not to sabotage.
In addition, if there ARE scum on the team, 2/2 can be scum as pointed out just above me.
TL;DR - don't trust someone just because they were on a successful team.
I'm going to yay and see what happens.
In the meantime, prplhz posted more shit math. If a team succeeds, that gives nothing about the number of scumplayers on the team because scum can elect not to sabotage.
In addition, if there ARE scum on the team, 2/2 can be scum as pointed out just above me.
TL;DR - don't trust someone just because they were on a successful team.
What is he saying here? Sentinel is voting yay, then setting himself up to make cases on the team members if it succeeds. This is a tell for his bluff. It fits with his posting patterns, and it's a shit reason for a vote. That and look at him bus prplhz. Look at him bus!
So as you can see, Sentinel is worried that somehow his bluff will go awry and the team will pass, and there will be no sabotages. He soft attacks people from a hypothetical successful team that he's only worried about because a town team has finally been suggested.
Chaos13, think about what's been said here. Take a look at the idea of a Palm Prpl Sent team, and you'll see it makes sense.
I think a reasonable team for today would be something like your option two: Nav, VE, Blazinghand. Given what I've seen, and that incredibly scummy bluff yay vote from Sentinel, I would like to see you propose this team. I would yay vote it.
And so should you, town. Dirk, Nav, think about what I've written here. It makes sense. It adds up. It's what scum would do, and it explains the voting patterns.
VE remains my strongest town read. Chaos really should rethink his scumread on Dirk, but I'm fine with Nav in his place.
Nav VE Blazinghand for D1 team!
