EPTActually, it's not a random lynching. You laid out that there was a 30% chance of getting a Mafia. Explain why you decided to endorse it. Trying to backtrack now is a terrible idea. Right now, you dug yourself a hole with your reasoning behind the random lynch, and now you are trying to Counter Attack Sacred for catching wind of it.
Newbie Mini Mafia III - Page 9
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Bromancipate
Oman52 Posts
Actually, it's not a random lynching. You laid out that there was a 30% chance of getting a Mafia. Explain why you decided to endorse it. Trying to backtrack now is a terrible idea. Right now, you dug yourself a hole with your reasoning behind the random lynch, and now you are trying to Counter Attack Sacred for catching wind of it. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
12 out of 13 people have posted (TheFearedBeing has not). So 3 or 4 mafia have posted something. Yet I still see many people lurking and getting by without posting anything substantial. I invite you to take a quick glance at the player filters and see this for yourselves. Now I'm not going to point people out right now because I don't want to give mafia a chance to change the subject off the "FakePromise's 30%" - lynch, but I want everyone to be wary and NOT ASSUME the lurker problem is over. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
I've refrained from posting .... I'll be posting again in roughly 13~14 hours from now when I get out of class. | ||
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zelblade
Australia901 Posts
On January 26 2012 08:01 DoYouHas wrote: I believe zelblade is our best lynch option. Just look at what he did when thrust into the spotlight. He has been apologizing and clarifying posts (which were already pretty clear) ever since spl0osh criticized his second post. Instead of using the spotlight to voice his own suspicions or convince us of his innocence, he has tried to move out of the spotlight as quickly and quietly as possible, while avoiding offending anyone. While his initial posts weren't particularly scummy, his responses have been nothing but suspicious. ## Vote: zelblade The reason why I have been so apologetic is simply because it is my 1st game of mafia. I am not really sure how to approach this game, and am quite unsure of myself - that I may be making nooby mistakes. Apparently being overly apologetic is a nooby mistake, and i will try to correct that. As for using the spotlight to voice my suspisions, at that time i didnt really have any reads on any particular person in the game (remember that it was at the start of day 1 and there was hardly any discussion yet besides about random lynching) besides perhaps fakepromise, who felt scummy for jumping onto the random lynch without any clear reasoning. However, quite a few players have already called him out for it, and i didnt feel that it was neccesary to add on to it, and wanted to wait for his response towards their accusiations. At this point, fakepromise seems to be the most suspisious to me, not only for him advocating the random lynch but also for his responses to the pressure, and also how he has suddenly gone mia, without giving a proper response as to why he supported the random lynch, and his random accusation of sacredsystem eagerly wanting him to die doesnt really help. I'm kinda confused on why SacredSystem is so eager for me to die, just because I happened to be reading this forum right after zelblade posted. Also @ fakepromise i am not really sure what you mean by this part.... I really dont understand the bolded part, what did u mean by that? He certainly isnt accusing you because you happened to be reading after i posted.... as that doesnt make sense. | ||
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zelblade
Australia901 Posts
As for my own vote, i am still waiting for fakepromise's proper response. If it doesnt come, my vote will probably go to him. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11309 Posts
I am still of the opinion that zelblade looks scummiest of the people who are participating. Reasons for that are what i posted in my last post, the apologeticness pointed out by DoYouHas, and the being apologetic for being apologetic and pointing himself as a noob here: The reason why I have been so apologetic is simply because it is my 1st game of mafia. I am not really sure how to approach this game, and am quite unsure of myself - that I may be making nooby mistakes. Apparently being overly apologetic is a nooby mistake, and i will try to correct that. I have others on the list of people who are actually writing which i find look a bit weird, too. And i would love to go into that and concentrate on those. However, we really can't at the moment, not with the amount of hardlurking going on. For example, we simply can't let FakePromise get away with what he is doing at the moment. He has not posted a single point of interest yet, mostly just half-assed numbers like this gems: I guess I was wrong with random lynching but from the looks of it, you guys are trying to random lynch me. Now that I think of it, if we do lose a townie, it'll be 4:8 and the next day, it can be 4 so town would be at a huge disadvantage. I'm kinda confused on why SacredSystem is so eager for me to die, just because I happened to be reading this forum right after zelblade posted. This seriously does not have any information at it, at all. Except maybe that it was actually zarepath who posted the first randomlynch proposal, so maybe this is an underhand and very stupid try to avoid attention and deflect it to the most conspicious person around, i don't know. Same goes for CosmosXAM who says nothing, except for apologies for being inactive and very, very safe statements that noone could find a problem with. Or Balt11t, who also has not yet posted anything with content except safe accusations against FakePromise and gets into absolutely inconsequential banter with SacredSystem. Or Sacredsystem, who does the same, and answers for other people, too. I have not even mentioned FearedBeing, because the best thing we can hope for at the moment is for him to be modkilled. I would really love to concentrate on suspicous people instead of inactive ones, but with that amount of inactives, we really can't, because that would show to mafia that the only thing they need to do to be safe is not post. So if any of those inactives are town, PLEASE, PLEASE, post. And don't only post to post, post interesting things. Things that make your stance clear, analysis, new things. Not just repetition of what someone else said or inconsequential stuff like links to the voting thread. Things that force you to take a stance, things that you can be called out on later. This gives us more information to rule you out as mafia. One other thing is that although there is a voting thread, i believe that we should still post our votes here on the main thread so that we will be notified whenever someone votes. As for my own vote, i am still waiting for fakepromise's proper response. If it doesnt come, my vote will probably go to him. With this i agree. Even though it is another nonconsequential thing you can't see anything out of, it is at least useful. Of course the votes that get counted are the ones in the voting thread, but by posting your votes in both places you are making this thread easier to follow, and if you hide your votes, you are conspicious. ##vote FakePromise | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
Let's look at his (quite limited) post history: On January 25 2012 13:50 FakePromise wrote: Poor Qatol, had such potential  4/13 = 30.7% chance of killing mafia so random lynch seems good for me If he's mafia, he runs these numbers through his head and goes, "Hey, that's great for us!" OR, he notes that I picked zelblade, and thinks to himself, "Hey, he's not a mafia, that's great for us!" So his first response is to immediately endorse the lynching of a townie... ...by suggesting that the lynching odds are good? That would be the worst, most obvious mafia move possible. And that's ALL he says. Doesn't respond at all to the point of my failed plan, which was to get information based on who likes it and who doesn't, and then use the flip to confirm one way or the other. All he likes is the percentage. AWFUL mafia play. However, saying the same thing as a townie is just as bad of a play, if not worse. Either way, let's establish that he's being careless. Let's continue. On January 26 2012 12:18 FakePromise wrote: I guess I was wrong with random lynching but from the looks of it, you guys are trying to random lynch me. Now that I think of it, if we do lose a townie, it'll be 4:8 and the next day, it can be 4:7 so town would be at a huge disadvantage. I'm kinda confused on why SacredSystem is so eager for me to die, just because I happened to be reading this forum right after zelblade posted. How does he defend his 30% endorsement? "I guess I was wrong." Then he follows that up with a complaint that people are trying to random lynch him. Also: "Now that I think of it..." as if he was just now running the numbers, which seems like an outright lie and an obvious escape route. The last part of his defense -- that he wonders why Sacred is after him because of some random timing on what he was reading(?) -- doesn't make any sense at all. It's the most scatterbrained defense imaginable. Now think about this if he's mafia. He makes a horrible, obvious first post right at the beginning of the game. There are three other mafia players who are going to PM him and say "look, that was the scummiest thing I've ever seen. You need to back off of that real carefully." They may even tell him what to say. They're sure as heck not going to let him post excuses like "just because I happened to be reading zelblade's post" or "now that I think about it..." (Disclaimer: the other mafia may be just as dense, but that's not a good assumption to make. Or Fake just read all the PMs and the thread at once, bugged out, and made an awful response.) If he IS mafia, this is the worst possible way to defend yourself of the fact -- lashing out, completely switching your stance, no explanation of your thought process, and something that doesn't even make sense at all. Either way, it's careless. But if he were mafia, I don't think he'd have a careless retraction like this, one that comes so late in the thread. It would be far earlier, with all the other mafia PMing him saying "what's going on? get over here and defend yourself, they're getting real restless and I sure as heck ain't going to defend your post." I think this post would be much better crafted defense, and would probably point out someone more suspicious than him to try to throw off the scent. Now his third and latest post: On January 26 2012 13:21 FakePromise wrote: What am I suppose to respond to? Really? As a mafia, I suppose this is a potential defense: seeming so confident in your innocence that nobody should have any accusations against you worth responding to. I don't see any guilt in that post. But really? Everyone is all for lynching you based on a single offhand belief that you made at the beginning with no back-up or reasoning. You don't know what you're supposed to respond to? Is that even possible? He doesn't see a need to defend himself anymore, even after his awful, scattered defense in his second post. This belies an utterly clueless view of the game. Additionally, who here has rushed to defend him (other than myself at this point)? Nobody. There are a couple of moves that could be seen as misdirections -- people voting for zelblade and Cosmon, but those votes made some basic sense. He's all alone in his defense because nobody else is on his team. (Knowingly, anyway.) He is alone in a corner, consistently clueless, and apparently sees no need to defend himself. What I'm saying is that it seems more likely to me that he is just a really awful townie. As an alternative, I suggest voting for Cosmon: On January 26 2012 06:39 CosmosXAM wrote: sorry if inactivity would lead people to this conclusion First post is an apology On January 26 2012 07:04 CosmosXAM wrote: If I had to say I would probably go with fakepromise because of how he was so quick to agree. Also Chocolate seems mildly suspicious because of his quick jump to voting straight for me based on little information Bandwagons on the popular vote based on little information, and then also throws suspicion on Chocolate because Chocolate's voting for Cosmos on little information(?) On January 26 2012 09:04 CosmosXAM wrote: I find it a bit odd your jump from to straight up voting for him, I mean sure he now has two votes going for him but you said that you wanted to wait for more information and based on him only posting once and your points about him just being copy&paste what other people had said earlier and not offering any new information or opinions I find your vote to be very bandwagon-ey. And then he accuses SacredSystem of bandwagoning on Fake (even though that's exactly was Cosmos did). | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11309 Posts
Honestly, the vibe i got of FakePromise is that of an uninterested and incompetent townie, too. But his absolute refusal to respond swings that towards scummy or stupid. True, stupid is more probable, but we can not really accept stupidity and inactivity as a defense, that makes the game far to easy for mafia. Also, it is very hard to differantiate a very stupid townie from a very stupid mafia, especially when they don't really post anything. Also, zarepath, note that most of your argument is WIFOM, and that you flipflop between "mafia would tell him to act, but not help him to be safer", and "noone helps him", which are obviously contradictionary. Even further, you invalidate that whole argument by helping him with this post. What we have at the moment is a systemic problem, and that is that we have 4 people who barely post at all, and even more who post only very small amounts. If i were to hunt for mafia, i would probably look among the "barely more" people, who post just enough to not be branded as lurkers, but not enough to hang themselves open in the spotlight, like Chocolate or balt11t. However, before we can do any real mafia hunting, that systemic problem needs to be addressed. Because we can't just ignore people if they don't post enough. Zelblade is still very suspicious, too. The problem i have here is that there is absolutely no rational reason to be a hard lurker. Even if are not active all the time, at least contribute when you are active. Just you reading this topic does not help us at all. If you are pro-town, you need to post. Sadly, this means that everyone who does not post a lot is not acting pro-town. If you are not posting, you are hurting us, on the same level as mafia does. Not only do you make us waste lynches on people we have no information on, you also make us spend the whole day just talking about inactivity instead of mafia. We can't just ignore the lurkers because that would turn the game into easymode for the mafia, but we also can't only focus on them because it is a big waste of time. For example, Fakepromise now has 3 votes on him, but he is not even talking, at all. So all we know is that he is inactive. He could be an inactive townie, or inactive mafia. Noone knows, because he does not talk. Both mafia and town SHOULD defend themselves in that situation. If it continues like this, i will probably just vote on the lurker with the most votes on him when i go to sleep. Sadly the end of the day is in the middle of the night for me, so i can't be around then. To not waste all of this time talking only about inactivity (which is the best thing to happen for mafia), i will think about my mafia reads on the active people, and post that in a second post very soon after this one. | ||
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11309 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11309 Posts
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Since Simberto seems like the most pro town here, I want to ask for his/her opinion. I think I have a substantial case (better than the FakePromise case), but it is against someone who is slightly above that "barely more" level. Would it be good for us to go for this person or is it better for us to really pressure the harder lurkers? Hopefully will find sometime during the day to post, but if not I'll be there before the deadline for sure. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11309 Posts
Zelblade looks absurdly scummy at this point, really even so much that i might even favor him over lynching a lurker. He posted a lot in the beginning, his posts made him look scummy, and now he does nothing but post apologetic things and attacks onto the easy target FakePromise. Take a look at this gem: The reason why I have been so apologetic is simply because it is my 1st game of mafia. I am not really sure how to approach this game, and am quite unsure of myself - that I may be making nooby mistakes. Apparently being overly apologetic is a nooby mistake, and i will try to correct that. He apologizes for being apologetic. Really? AND he paints himself as a noob. Why should a towny do that? As town, i want people to trust me, and carefully consider what i say, not take me for a noob who has nothing important to say. However, "being a noob" is a wonderful excuse for inconsistencies that might result from mafia trying to act as town. The rest of his only post today was used to specifically attack FakePromise, who is already in pretty deep problems anyways. Chocolate looks strange. Not only is he active on TL, but not contributing here at all, almost all of his posts consist of zero content. He is saying that he tries to make Lurkers post, while he pretty much lurks very hard himself. Other then that, he did not post anything except an attack on the random lynching plan. I would really like some kind of statement from those 3 guys. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11309 Posts
Found some time before my day starts to read the newer posts. Since Simberto seems like the most pro town here, I want to ask for his/her opinion. I think I have a substantial case (better than the FakePromise case), but it is against someone who is slightly above that "barely more" level. Would it be good for us to go for this person or is it better for us to really pressure the harder lurkers? Hopefully will find sometime during the day to post, but if not I'll be there before the deadline for sure. Hm, that is an interesting question. In any case you should post your case before the night ends to avoid a mafia hit killing information, that is for sure (We can talk during the night and mafia hits hit in the morning if i am not totally mistaken). However, if you have a really good case, i think that going after that is better than a random/policy lynch. But you need to be careful that you don't post it too late. Better posting it during the night than in the last few hours of the day and confuse people into a nolynch. I am very convinced that we should lynch today, and if you post it at a time when the europeans can no longer react to it, i don't think you will get a majority lynch on a new person going, especially considering the amount of lurking/inactivity going on. Also, i would suggest asking a coach about that, they might have something to consider that i don't. But if you can't contact one and post your case before european midnight, i think you should better post it earlier then wasting too much time. But until we see that case and it is good, lurkers are still the prime targets. | ||
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zelblade
Australia901 Posts
##vote FakePromise | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
On January 26 2012 22:34 Simberto wrote: Also, zarepath, note that most of your argument is WIFOM, and that you flipflop between "mafia would tell him to act, but not help him to be safer", and "noone helps him", which are obviously contradictionary. Even further, you invalidate that whole argument by helping him with this post. I don't know what WIFOM is (these newbie games should have a list of acronyms at the beginning). And that's not a contradiction or flipflop. Mafia would tell him to defend himself because they couldn't be seen defending such an awful argument; but they'd help him defend himself a little bit, at least, which obviously didn't happen. You can count my post as an invalidation of that reasoning, but Fake's safety isn't my prime concern here; mis-lynching is, and with three votes tallied against him, I had to step in before the votes got out of control and we mis-lynched (according to my suspicions). I think that Cosmos is the stronger candidate. | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11309 Posts
I firmly believe that we should lynch today, so in my eyes the only question is whom. So, vote, and we can discuss it. We should also try to come to a conclusion before all europeans are asleep. Also: I don't know what WIFOM is (these newbie games should have a list of acronyms at the beginning). WIFOM stands for "Wine in front of me", which is apparently a reference to some movie. It is used to describe the sort of circular reasoning "Ok, mafia should do this, but they know we know they should do this, so they should do the opposite, but then they know we know they know we know, so they should do the first thing" etc...., which basically does not lead to a conclusion and only obfuscates things. | ||
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