EPTNewbie Mini Mafia III - Page 11
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Chocolate
United States2350 Posts
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On January 27 2012 07:50 Chocolate wrote: Make sure you remove your vote on him if he continues to not post. Correct me (mods) if I'm wrong but he is set to be modkilled. Unless you are in favor of a no lynch. Currently TheFearedBeing is set to be modkilled. He has a little over 4 hours left to vote. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
The worst thing we can have is clutter; the thread is the only means of town communication. Now as we've seen, there are already many players who are suspect. - Zelblade's timidity and apologetic tone - FakePromise's 30% and general apathy - small time posters e.g balt11t, CosmosXAM and Chocolate etc. HOWEVER, reading kitaman27's Newbie Mini Mafia left an impression on me. While we are so focused on catching lurker mafia, there can be outspoken, active and seemingly helpful mafia disguising as town that fly under the radar and whose influences are not well noted (Ciryandor in the game linked). We have a bunch of lurkers, but lets not devote all our attention and resources trying to pick off which is which. While we should go after lurkers (p.s. I suggest if we have any vigis that we use those shots on them, Ace's vigi / cop guide) we should not ever assume that active players are town confirmed. This is the mindset with which I read over the thread. I will now push forward the Zarepath Lynch. ##Vote Zarepath Zarepath's filter. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Case I: + Show Spoiler + Zarepath opens the day's discussions with a random / no lynch proposal. We've discussed how it is a poorly thought out, Anti-Town plan. However, read between the lines with me (set 1 is italicized , set 2 is bolded, set 3 underlined) + Show Spoiler + On January 25 2012 13:28 zarepath wrote: So, the first question I think has to be this: What do we want to accomplish on Day 1? We either no-lynch or randomly lynch, as far as I can tell. We don't have much game history to draw upon as far as deciding who to cut early. I see several possible outcomes: Randomly lynch a mafia/red: This is clearly the best possible outcome. If we have worthwhile hunches to go on, it's possible we can lynch a mafia on the first Day. From what I've read it's unlikely, but still possible; it all depends on what kind of discussion we see today. Randomly lynch a townie/blue: Bad. The only upside is that we can then use the information from that lynching to determine likely mafia. Who was most excited about randomly lynching that particular person? Who bandwagonned on? Who were the last few votes who made the lynch possible? No-lynch: We don't get a mafia, or confirmation of who isn't mafia. Because there's no risk of lynching a townie/blue, this seems to be very safe. But what I wonder is this: if we don't lynch anyone today, our information for Day 2 is limited, and we give the mafia a night to kill someone. We end up with 1 dead townie before we're willing to make deductions. Maybe it's riskier to not lynch someone on the first night, because we'd have less information to go on. So what I'm suggesting is this: we lynch someone randomly. Say, by reverse-alphabetical order. There's no reason at all for us to suspect this person. But by deciding to lynch them, we'll either see a lot of defense (ie, they're mafia), or a lot of people agreeing with killing that person (ie, those people are mafia.) Once that person flips blue or red, we'll know who was who. TLDR; I suggest that we randomly lynch zelblade, or seriously discuss it, and see what happens from there. Set 1 (italicized) This isn't a hard slip up but it isn't quite null tell either. The question is good. What do we want to accomplish. He doesn't answer his own question though. He offers a plan and sweeps the question under the rug. Don't think he is a mafia, but I start to watch out for him. Set 2 (bolded) Look at his mentions of alignments (mafia, blue, town). Look past the plan itself and observe his word choice. Did you see what I saw? "Once that person flips blue or red". You KNOW it was NOT a typo since one paragraph above he uses the phrase "1 dead townie" and that he considers the two factions mafia and townie/blue. I believe he has blue hunting on his mind and it leaked out. I am definitely suspicious and decide a full blown analysis is worth investing into. Set 3 (underlined) This is a recurring theme that doesn't make sense. Set 3 will continue well into his other posts. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Case 2: + Show Spoiler + Set 1 bolded set 2 italics + Show Spoiler + On January 25 2012 19:22 zarepath wrote: The point is that upon flip, we have much more to go on. Anyone irrationally defending you now, if it turns out you're mafia, has a solid chance of also being mafia. So no, not anyone defending you is necessarily mafia, and not necessarily anyone accusing you, but upon flip, we can figure out which side of that we can throw our suspicions. After reading others' responses to the idea: no, a RNG lynch would NOT be as useful to us, because we don't learn anything from it (as has been pointed out). By me randomly accusing someone, that person is forced to speak, and others are forced to defend if mafia/bandwagon if he's not. I argue that the process has already begun, based on the content of some of these posts. I think the strongest argument against doing this is that, because of the high mafia/town ratio, we only have 2 miss-lynches before it's LYLO, as zelblade pointed out. Lynching lurkers is not as great a strategy as it sounds. As others pointed out, mafia can just decide to post more, and then suddenly we're looking at lynching the less-active townies just because they don't talk enough. People who don't post at all get modkilled anyway, and seeing as how this is a newbie game, there are probably several lurkers who just don't know where to get started. I also agree that we should go after suspicious people. And I think we'll find out who they are by continuing to pressure zelblade. Set 1 (bolded) He is pushing for a kill for information. Information!! He doesn't care if its not a mafia, because he wants information! He uses the word "necessarily" twice, and after the flip the information can help town "[cast] our suspicions". He doesn't even value the information gained from the flip that highly. Set 2 (italics) Zelblade points out that town has 2 mislynches to Lylo (which I think is unhelpful information but that is beside the point). Zarepath uses this information. If you use someones info, it means that they are contributing. He ends the post saying that we should go after suspicious people, namely Zelblade. He uses information provided by someone who he thinks as suspicious. He calls for pressure on zelblade that he does not create himself . Please go read his filter right now. Here's a quick example. On January 25 2012 23:55 zarepath wrote: Okay, forget random lynching. I still think targeting someone randomly and seeing how they respond is better than policy-lynching the quiet people, but I think it's a good point that with 4 mafia, we can only miss-lynch twice. But we need something to go on; some way of getting info. I have a few ideas but there are still a lot of people we haven't heard from. Quiet people need to speak up soon. Again, this quest for info (obtained by killing innocents or mafia he doesn't care) and self contradictions. What happened to the pressure Zelblade plan? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Case 3 (last one bear with me guys): + Show Spoiler + It's really messy to show this without going through all the posts so I'll show you one example and you guys can read the filter yourselves. This has to do with the discrepancy in actions and words (like the zelblade pressure) + Show Spoiler + On January 27 2012 00:47 zarepath wrote: I don't know what WIFOM is (these newbie games should have a list of acronyms at the beginning). And that's not a contradiction or flipflop. Mafia would tell him to defend himself because they couldn't be seen defending such an awful argument; but they'd help him defend himself a little bit, at least, which obviously didn't happen. You can count my post as an invalidation of that reasoning, but Fake's safety isn't my prime concern here; mis-lynching is, and with three votes tallied against him, I had to step in before the votes got out of control and we mis-lynched (according to my suspicions). I think that Cosmos is the stronger candidate. Ok. So he says he is concerned with mislynch. As in, lynching people who are not mafia. He says that Fake is not mafia very adamantly On January 26 2012 22:00 zarepath wrote:"I do NOT think that FakePromise is a mafia." yet look at his wording at the end. First, "I think". Not, Cosmos is the stronger candidate, but "I think". Where did that conviction go Zarepath? Furthermore, look at his voting pattern. After he posts his "FakePromise is an inexperienced town" at January 26 2012 22:00, he waits for Simberto to agree and vote first before he casts his own vote 6 minutes after at January 27 2012 03:05. 5 Hours and after someone else goes first. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- OK. Now LISTEN Don't post unless you have either - Analytical arguments against MY Case. I don't care if you want to lynch lurkers. Everyone does. But unless you either refute my case or build another as substantial as mine, which probably can't be done against few-post lurkers, please don't sidetrack or clutter discussion. - Or you are Zarepath defending yourself. I partially DIDN'T want to post this because it would give mafia an easy out of lurking by just agreeing with me and blah blah blah. So to prevent that, please clear the way for Zarepath to speak, or speak on his behalf. Again, I make my stance and vote clear: ##Vote Zarepath | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
If you agree with me just Vote. Don't let him weasel out of this. | ||
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
CosmosXAM - 4 Chocolate Simberto zarepath DoYouHas FakePromise - 5 MidnightGladius SacredSystem zelblade Bromancipate balt11t zelblade - 0 zarepath - 2 CosmosXAM slOosh TheFearedBeing - 1 FakePromise Non-Voters - 1 TheFearedBeing Voting ends at 22:00 EST (-05:00) today. Currently, the number of votes needed to lynch is: 7 out of 12. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11402 Posts
If Zarepath should flip red, that would make FakePromise an almost 100% red too (while this does not necessarily work the other way around). Also that whole defense of FakePromise could really be the work of a frustrated mafia, too. And should he flip green, we need to take a VERY careful look at CosmosXAM and sloosh. I really dislike the way this case was built in the last minute, and the try to pull me on board beforehand, but i must admit that it seems like a strong case to me. I will probably stay up a bit later tonight (this is far too interesting), so if we for some reason absolutely can't get a lynch onto Zarepath, i will change my vote to FakePromise. Please, everyone who wants to lynch Zarepath react as fast as possible, and everyone who does not want to do that, also react fast (and especially give reasons). We are running on limited time now, so i suggest that we concentrate on this one instead of half a dozen half-cases like we did before. ##unvote CosmosXAM ##vote Zarepath | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On January 27 2012 09:26 Simberto wrote: If Zarepath should flip red, that would make FakePromise an almost 100% red too (while this does not necessarily work the other way around). Also that whole defense of FakePromise could really be the work of a frustrated mafia, too. And should he flip green, we need to take a VERY careful look at CosmosXAM and sloosh. I really dislike the way this case was built in the last minute, and the try to pull me on board beforehand, but i must admit that it seems like a strong case to me. Be very careful with that assumption. From the perspective of zarepath being scum I think there are only 3 possible likelihoods. 1. We lynch FakePromise, he flips town, and zarepath looks good for defending him. 2. We lynch CosmosXAM, he flips scum, and zarepath looks good for being the first real accuser. 3. We lynch CosmosXAM, he flips town, and zarepath looks the same. I left out the possibility of FakePromise flipping scum because zarepath's own actions make it very unlikely. Just look at the statements laced through his posts. On January 25 2012 13:28 zarepath wrote: Randomly lynch a townie/blue: Bad. The only upside is that we can then use the information from that lynching to determine likely mafia. Who was most excited about randomly lynching that particular person? Who bandwagonned on? Who were the last few votes who made the lynch possible? On January 25 2012 19:22 zarepath wrote: The point is that upon flip, we have much more to go on. Anyone irrationally defending you now, if it turns out you're mafia, has a solid chance of also being mafia. So no, not anyone defending you is necessarily mafia, and not necessarily anyone accusing you, but upon flip, we can figure out which side of that we can throw our suspicions. On January 25 2012 19:38 zarepath wrote: Upon flip, we'll know whether the plan's supporters or detractors were likely mafia or not. Not both sides at once, regardless of flip. It's far better than a random lynch because, with a specific target, people have to reveal themselves by defending/accusing him. The information we gain from his flip then has repercussions; the information we'd gain from a random lynch would just be hit/miss with zero opportunity for analysis, save theory-based ("anyone who votes for random is mafia" "with 4/13 random vote is actually worse for mafia" etc.). Instead we can see who defended him and who attacked him and have actual leads from there headed into Day 2. If anything zarepath has been trying to get us to focus on who supported and attacked whoever is lynched. This makes it seem very unlikely to me that he would adamantly defend someone he knows is mafia when that person holds little to no sway over the town and is still likely to be lynched. It is far more likely that he has set himself up to defend an innocent or bus a fellow scum. He gains favor in the town regardless of the way the lynch goes. So, to counter your point, if zarepath flips red I think it is far more likely that FakePromise is town and it will cast even more suspicion on CosmosXAM. | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
On January 27 2012 08:01 slOosh wrote: Zarepath opens the day's discussions with a random / no lynch proposal. We've discussed how it is a poorly thought out, Anti-Town plan. Yes. No one had posted, and figured much of the first day would be "well, how do we do this?" unless somebody put forth a concrete plan. I honestly thought it was a reasonable plan. I underestimated how much information we'd be able to glean on the first day, and, well, you see that I backed off. This isn't a hard slip up but it isn't quite null tell either. The question is good. What do we want to accomplish. He doesn't answer his own question though. He offers a plan and sweeps the question under the rug. Offering a plan doesn't preclude a discussion about our goals. To simply say "What do we want to accomplish?" without offering a plan is a nothing post. My plan's goal was to gain information based on accusing someone random. Don't see the problem here. Look at his mentions of alignments (mafia, blue, town). Look past the plan itself and observe his word choice. Did you see what I saw? "Once that person flips blue or red". You KNOW it was NOT a typo since one paragraph above he uses the phrase "1 dead townie" and that he considers the two factions mafia and townie/blue. I believe he has blue hunting on his mind and it leaked out. Blue/red is meant to mean good/townie/bad. I don't see how a plan to randomly lynch someone implies blue hunting, because I had zero to go on when picking zelblade. If every slight misuse of the term "blue" is supposed to mean you're mafia, we're going to have a hard road figuring things out. If we don't lynch someone today we won't have as much information to start day 2 I don't see the problem with this, either. He is pushing for a kill for information. Information!! He doesn't care if its not a mafia, because he wants information! He uses the word "necessarily" twice, and after the flip the information can help town "[cast] our suspicions". He doesn't even value the information gained from the flip that highly. Yes, I do. This is semantics. "Necessarily" means that I'm not implying that both accusers and defenders are guilty of being mafia; "necessarily" means that it's one or the other, and upon flip, we know which one. Zelblade points out that town has 2 mislynches to Lylo (which I think is unhelpful information but that is beside the point). Zarepath uses this information. If you use someones info, it means that they are contributing. He ends the post saying that we should go after suspicious people, namely Zelblade. He uses information provided by someone who he thinks as suspicious. He calls for pressure on zelblade that he does not create himself . I'm the ORIGINAL pressure on zelblade. All zelblade pressure originated from me calling for his lynch at the very beginning. Again, this quest for info (obtained by killing innocents or mafia he doesn't care) and self contradictions. What happened to the pressure Zelblade plan? You mean the plan that everyone else thought was super stupid and scummy? I don't see how consistently valuing information and a plan is bad. Everyone else seemed to think that pressuring less-actives was a better plan. Obviously I do care if we lynch an innocent; how is this different from putting pressure on less-actives (whether they're mafia or not)? And note that the pressure put on zelblade revealed a lot about him; the accusation against him showed that Fake is suspicious for awful argumentation; and it created a platform for discussion that's done nothing but benefit town. Ok. So he says he is concerned with mislynch. As in, lynching people who are not mafia. He says that Fake is not mafia very adamantly yet look at his wording at the end. First, "I think". Not, Cosmos is the stronger candidate, but "I think". Where did that conviction go Zarepath? I'm quite convinced in Fake's innocence. I'm more convinced in his innocence than I am in Cosmos' guilt. Again, I don't see the problem here. Furthermore, look at his voting pattern. After he posts his "FakePromise is an inexperienced town" at January 26 2012 22:00, he waits for Simberto to agree and vote first before he casts his own vote 6 minutes after at January 27 2012 03:05. 5 Hours and after someone else goes first. Vote timing is hardly an indication of me being mafia. Wouldn't it have been more suspicious for me to wait for someone to disagree, and then back off my "FakePromise is innocent" argument? Honestly, the least-suspicous timing would have been for me to vote exactly when I posted. You'll note that the entire thread is filled with people declaring their suspicions and yet not voting for that person until voting started. I voted after Simberto did because it was becoming clear that votes needed to be counted. Waiting for someone else's confirmation of my theory... what would that even gain if I were mafia? I'm impressed with how thoroughly you've examined my posts. But honestly, if you were to decide that any other active player were mafia simply because you read a thread about active mafia, you would find similar "inconsistencies" that are simply misunderstandings in semantics. I've done nothing but further town discussion, point towards suspicious people, contribute actual analytical defense of people that others are accusing, trying to aright the lynchpath -- etc. There are numerous others who only accuse without good argument, refuse to defend themselves, or don't even post at all. While a wall of text analysis is impressive, it's operating on assumptions and while it might feel cool to be suspicious of an active town contributor, you really have nothing to go on here. I don't think that you're mafia, simply because I don't think mafia would go to such effort to declare suspicion, on their own, against somebody on arguments that's frankly just looking for semantic proof to confirm their suspicion. You'd have nothing to gain when I flip green/blue (see how I learned?) because we'd all know who to lynch. I'm holding my vote for Cosmos, and I continue to suggest that people avoid voting for FakePromise, who's probably just a townie with bad arguments. | ||
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Burns
United States2300 Posts
I'm holding my vote for Cosmos, and I continue to suggest that people avoid voting for FakePromise, who's probably just a townie with bad arguments. fakepromise, is a mafia with good mafia intentions also why do you keep defending him when its impossible to defend him with conclusive reasoning, FakePromise, who's probably just a townie with bad arguments. prove it so because you keep defending someone that no townie would defend, im torn between fakepromise who betrayed the town by agreeing to a lynching which goes against the towns odds, or the person defending the traitor | ||
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CosmosXAM
United States121 Posts
In a case where a larger group of 2-4 people strongly defend a person while simultaneously attack another seems to me like a deflection that could be very well employed by a mafia helping a friend: they bring attention off their ally and put pressure on someone who isnt. Now even if it isn't a larger group like that you would think that a person known by the mafia to be mafia would at least be defended a little. I am seeing a some strong similarities in posts and opinions and some alliances showing their faces, I would advise everyone to re-read some posts by both zarepath and DoYouHas. I noticed that their later posts have striking similarities and that they both seem to just pick targets together, first with zelblade and now with me, and they attacked us while in most cases defending someone else in both cases FakePromise and in DoYouHas's case zarepath. To me this seems very scummy and I stand 100% by my vote on zarepath as of this point. | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
FakePromise: makes an awful post, offers almost no defense, and doesn't see a reason to defend further. That's either intentional mafia suicide or just a newb townie/blue -- and considering that this is a newbie game, his posts just seem more noob-like than they do guilty. It's impossible to prove -- it's just a hunch based on my analysis. It's what I believe. Cosmos: Accused four (4!) different people, mostly just people who accuse him. Myself: Needlessly put myself in the spotlight with a first post plan, backed off when others disagreed, and risked my neck a second time according to my honest analysis even when it would've been easier to simply bandwagon on Fake if I were mafia. I've only risked myself when it would've been super easy to blend back into the quasi-lurkers We still need to circle the wagons on zelblade again, but as the deadline approaches, and considering the votes right now, those are the only three people worth talking about right now. | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
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Burns
United States2300 Posts
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Burns
United States2300 Posts
On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote: Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation. you are bluffing how are we going to pressure lurkers if we arnt here? So stop trying to mislead the investigation, and throw us all on. wild goose chase imterogating players who arnt here | ||
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Chocolate
United States2350 Posts
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
(sorry holding baby) | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
If every slight misuse of the term "blue" is supposed to mean you're mafia, we're going to have a hard road figuring things out. It's your choice of using "blue" to represent town alignment that is questionable, especially considering you used the phrase "townie/blue" several times in the same post. It's not a slight misuse to say that blue means town. Using green to represent town is common. No one uses blue to do it. Except you. I don't see the problem with this, either. Yes, I do. This is semantics. "Necessarily" means that I'm not implying that both accusers and defenders are guilty of being mafia; "necessarily" means that it's one or the other, and upon flip, we know which one. Lynching for info is dumb. We get info regardless of who is lynched, and yet you keep using this excuse to push forward lynches. It is clear that we have thrown out no-lynch as a poor choice. It is illogical to use this excuse of information gathering to support lynching specific people. I'm the ORIGINAL pressure on zelblade. All zelblade pressure originated from me calling for his lynch at the very beginning. Yea, sure: My post, Zel's response, then yours 3 posts and 5 hours down. Who was the one with the FOS ???? Vote timing is hardly an indication of me being mafia. Wouldn't it have been more suspicious for me to wait for someone to disagree, and then back off my "FakePromise is innocent" argument? Honestly, the least-suspicous timing would have been for me to vote exactly when I posted. This wasn't one of the cases I pushed, but you use WIFOM very often. Wouldn'ts and woulds don't help us. Vote timing IS an indication. If you really believed it to be true then you stick with it. Much like I am sticking my neck out gunning for you. If you can't even make the first vote on your own analysis then clearly you don't believe it, you aren't acting on your words and that is called deception - something only a mafia would do. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11402 Posts
##unvote Zarepath ##voteFakePromise | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 27 2012 11:18 Simberto wrote: Apparently, we won't get a lynch on zarepath in time, so i will change my vote back to FakePromise. At least this way we have one less lurker and absolute noncontributor. And if he flips red, we need to really take a look at zarepath. If he does not, we need to really reconsider our assumptions. I would suggest everyone with a vote on zarepath (or those random useless votes) to do the same, since voting ends in 45 minutes and we only have 4 of 7 needed votes on zarepath, while there are now 7 votes on FakePromise (which would be enough, but is not really safe). ##unvote Zarepath ##voteFakePromise FakePromise flipping either one does not dissolve my analysis and arguments. It might add weight to the other side, but my case still stands as the only real analysis argument. A good mafia looks like town and it is a critical error to let them blend in and look over those tells and motives that indicate that they aren't town . | ||
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FakePromise
United States77 Posts
##unvote TheFearedBeing ##vote zarepath | ||
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