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Newbie Mini Mafia III - Page 33

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Adam4167
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia1426 Posts
February 04 2012 04:12 GMT
#641
These newbie games spring up fairly often. On top of that any mini game will generally have 3-4 1-2 gamers in them so they tend to be very forgiving. Take GM's Normal Mini that just started 2 days ago, 4-5 first timers, a couple of 2-3 timers as well.

Id echo Blazinghands comments as well, just do what you normally as town, when youre scum. Id like to think my scum play looks quite similar to my town play, (as evidence by ET and half the obs thread wanting to hang me ). Thats probably the best way to tackle it. Having a large contrast between your town and scum play just makes you succeptable to meta cases which leads to stupid mislynches.

Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-04 06:12:11
February 04 2012 06:09 GMT
#642
On February 04 2012 10:10 Probulous wrote:
Well thanks guys for the advice. Next scum game I will make sure that we read the posts of everyone before that get posted. Any other suggestions. I am fairly certain that after zarepath was lynched there was not much we could do. Chocolate and balt where already targeted which left myself and since we had voted late that made us look really bad.

Any ideas on how to pull that around or is it simply too late? I mean as Jitsu said in our QT by the end of day 1 you could step back and see who was scum pretty clearly. From there on in it was an uphill struggle. I guess the vig shot and town saves really finished us off. I just want to improve for next game and the take home lessons I have so far are

Team Check posts before posting
Be more proactive day 1/2 so you don't end up with everyone on the end of the wagon.

Anything else?

I wouldn't necessarily read every post because you don't want the posts to take too long to write (thus taking your team out of the thread, especially early). But definitely the important ones should be reviewed. It's a balancing act in the end.

Once you're in that position, you need to get a stronger hold on the thread. That means shooting people who are controlling the thread and posting a lot more actively. Your team wasn't actually dead until you shot adam. A shot on DoYouHas night 3 and this game is still quite winnable (though some of that is luck because you psyched yourselves out of the DT read because of his tunnel on day 3).

Also, you had solid comments in the QT on day 1 in particular, but dreamflower and I couldn't figure out why you weren't posting more. It seemed like you were too focused on telling your scumbuddies to post stuff and you kinda forgot to post some stuff yourself. Just compare your activity levels in the QT vs. in the thread to see what I mean.
Uff Da
EchelonTee
Profile Joined February 2011
United States5245 Posts
February 04 2012 07:10 GMT
#643
On February 04 2012 12:57 DoYouHas wrote:
Well, I had a ton of fun for my first game. Hoping to get into another game soon, but I definitely think I need another newbie game. Will another one be hosted in the near future?


A lot of the minis end up chock full of newbs, you wouldnt be out of place in any of them. I'm only in my 3rd game atm, and it's full o da nubs
aka "neophyte". learn lots. dont judge. laugh for no reason. be nice. seek happiness. -D[9]
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
February 04 2012 22:29 GMT
#644
On February 04 2012 15:09 Qatol wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 04 2012 10:10 Probulous wrote:
Well thanks guys for the advice. Next scum game I will make sure that we read the posts of everyone before that get posted. Any other suggestions. I am fairly certain that after zarepath was lynched there was not much we could do. Chocolate and balt where already targeted which left myself and since we had voted late that made us look really bad.

Any ideas on how to pull that around or is it simply too late? I mean as Jitsu said in our QT by the end of day 1 you could step back and see who was scum pretty clearly. From there on in it was an uphill struggle. I guess the vig shot and town saves really finished us off. I just want to improve for next game and the take home lessons I have so far are

Team Check posts before posting
Be more proactive day 1/2 so you don't end up with everyone on the end of the wagon.

Anything else?

I wouldn't necessarily read every post because you don't want the posts to take too long to write (thus taking your team out of the thread, especially early). But definitely the important ones should be reviewed. It's a balancing act in the end.

Once you're in that position, you need to get a stronger hold on the thread. That means shooting people who are controlling the thread and posting a lot more actively. Your team wasn't actually dead until you shot adam. A shot on DoYouHas night 3 and this game is still quite winnable (though some of that is luck because you psyched yourselves out of the DT read because of his tunnel on day 3).

Also, you had solid comments in the QT on day 1 in particular, but dreamflower and I couldn't figure out why you weren't posting more. It seemed like you were too focused on telling your scumbuddies to post stuff and you kinda forgot to post some stuff yourself. Just compare your activity levels in the QT vs. in the thread to see what I mean.


Thanks Qatol. Will remember for next time. Thanks again for a great game.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-10 05:01:59
February 09 2012 21:40 GMT
#645
Oh I forgot to mention this, but if anyone else would like some feedback from me on how they played or my thoughts on specific decisions/situations, please let me know and I'll see if I can give you a little writeup.
Uff Da
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 09 2012 23:14 GMT
#646
On Night 2, as I was considering who to shoot, I was suspicious of Bromancipate, but I was more suspicious of balt11t. I hadn't fully considered the interaction between the vigilante ability and mafia roleblocking, but here was my initial plan:

1) Call a shot on balt11t at the beginning of the Night and look at the town's response.

a) If it became obvious from balt11t's response that he was indeed mafia, and that the town was in favor of lynching him regardless, I would switch targets and shoot Bromancipate instead, claiming this in the thread shortly before the Day post.

b) If I was wrong about balt11t, and he claimed a blue role and provided useful information, I would switch my shot to Bromancipate, knowing that I was probably going to be killed by the mafia during the night. The town could sort out the claim afterward.

c) If no particularly useful information came out of the exchange, I would play it safe and not switch targets.

In the end, it was pretty clear that balt11t wouldn't be alive for much longer no matter what happened, but I thought about it a little bit more. On the one hand, if I had been right with both of my reads, it would have essentially wrapped up the game. On the other hand, had I been wrong about either balt11t or Bromancipate, or heaven forbid both, the town would have been thrown into chaos and the endgame would have been much more messy.

As the town was in a pretty strong position following the first medic save and zarepath's lynch, I ultimately decided to play it safe. Of course, it turned out that my reads were right, but I don't want to be a victim of hindsight bias.

What would you have done as a vigilante in that position? Would it have been right to trust my reads and go for the big play, or is it better to just play safely? Alternatively, would I have been better off not calling my shot on balt11t in the first place and either holding onto my shot, or still shooting him and claiming it on the next Day?
Trust in Bayes.
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
February 09 2012 23:20 GMT
#647
Well given you can die at night without shooting, I would say shoot the first person you are sure is scum? Otherwise you risk wasting your bullet.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 10 2012 02:22 GMT
#648
It seems that the game was won mostly through help of blue roles in confirming ppl for late game rather than strong analysis.

People in Obs QT said my case against Zarepath was weak / confirmation bias, and I think besides MidnightGladius' vig shot and Adams hunches on Chocolate, as a town we didn't ever rally around a good analysis case.

Could you help point out posts which tipped off people as mafia? Or is this more an overall feel in which each post adds to the case rather than one solid post upon which you can lynch mafia?

Also, how can you differentiate between timidity due to being new to the game and timidity due to being mafia?
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
February 10 2012 02:28 GMT
#649
Hey sl0osh! I think Adam explained why he thought I was mafia (my vote for fake and lack of posting) which was a metagame thing. In my first game I wrote so much and never pushed an easy lynch so that is what made him look, then my actions just confirmed it I guess.

Are you going to join us in Werewolves? You would do really well as you were hard as hell to play against. It would be nice to be on the same side as you
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 10 2012 02:43 GMT
#650
Uhh oh boy. I would love to but I am overwhelmed by the number of people playing, the brand new types of roles, the added layer of traits and this day/night simultaneous business.

Gah, and I just found out it is a PM game!

It seems like too much for me ><;

Hoping that GMarshal will host another Newbie game after his mini.
I am very excited to play and just waiting for appropriate game right now.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 10 2012 02:45 GMT
#651
Same here. I don't think I'd be able to keep up with the Werewolves game, especially now that midterm season is right around the corner :S
Trust in Bayes.
Adam4167
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia1426 Posts
February 10 2012 03:57 GMT
#652
Yeah, my case against you/jitsu was entirely meta, which made it shitty by default. There wasn't anything specifically I could point to in your filter and say, yep, ulterior motives going on right here.

We think very very similarly. In Newbie Mafia II, we both identified (incorrectly) the exact same scum team, for the same reasons. Our brains must just be wired the same , so when I see you on what was a painfully obvious (to me at least) mislynch, I was instantly suspicious.

However, every time I put a case together, it basically boiled down to "I really have nothing much else... BUT JUST TRUST ME GUYZ". Something told me that wasn't going to work, so I set out to catch your teammate, drag this game as close to LyLo as I could, and then id only have to influence 1-2 people with my crappy meta case, instead of 5-6.



Now that I've played in 5 games, I qualify to apply for co-hosting, and eventually get my hosting wings. I'm really interested in getting some newbie games rolling, I find them far more interesting (far less ego -__-) and growing this community can only be a good thing. Hopefully that can happen before all of you no longer qualify to play in them!
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
February 10 2012 04:03 GMT
#653
He he, it's funny cause when I was reading the first Student game you played and everyone was like, "Adam is scum because he doesn't post", I literally face palmed. Your response was exactly what I would have written. Scary really. Maybe it's an Aussie thing. You not keen on Werewolves?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-10 05:01:23
February 10 2012 04:34 GMT
#654
So it's going to take me a few days to get back to people. Do you want me posting it here or just PMing? It might be valuable for other people to see too. Just PM me if you don't want me posting it here. Also, this kind of discussion is healthy as long as it doesn't turn into a bragging war. You can learn a lot from the thoughts of each other. I was a little disappointed that you didn't discuss the game more when it ended to be honest.
Uff Da
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
February 10 2012 04:52 GMT
#655
Thanks Qatol, I enjoy reading the comments in the thread so please post them in here.

What are your thoughts on bussing as mafia? My biggest issue this game aside from being unavailable more than usual, was how to approach my mafia brethren in the thread. On one hand if I don't push them as hard as others the double standard becomes clear but if I push them too hard they end up getting lynched.

For example Day 1 you can read in the QT that as soon as zarepath made his opening post I knew it would be his downfall. It was a suspicious topic and was presented in a suspicious manner. How do I not avoid placing him at the top of my "scum" list? Jitsu chose Fake because he agreed but logically zarepath should have been target number 1.

The reason I told the boys to post lots was I felt confident in being able to survive for at least the first day and probably day 2 as well. So I wanted them to get as much thread presence as possible. The problem was that most of the team opened up in ways that would normally flag my red radar, how do I not implicate them?

Take Adam's case on me, it was based purely on me voting for Fake on Day 1 and knowing that normally I would not vote for such an obvious miss-lynch. I wasn't here for that vote and probably would have pushed us to vote elsewhere but the problem remains.

When is it appropriate to throw your team mates under the bus?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Adam4167
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia1426 Posts
February 10 2012 04:53 GMT
#656
I always love feedback, even if it is bashing how horrible I was :D

I don't think anyone is going to come out bragging about this one, we got exceptionally lucky with our blues.

My self-analysis:
My early play was pretty average. I joined the game late, stubbornly defied the most town people, tunneled a townie for 24 hours, refused to vote for a scum.

Somehow, through all of that, I managed to get myself confirmed as a townie.

Probably my biggest regret was not opposing the Simberto lynch louder, but my confidence was pretty down after defending Zarepath and tunneling Sacred, so I really wasn't sure of any of my reads, at that point.
Adam4167
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia1426 Posts
February 10 2012 04:59 GMT
#657
Zarepaths opening post is exactly what threw me. Scum 'generally' like to open discussion with a very neutral topic, like policy lynches. Why would a scum pick something much more abrasive, like randomly electing someone to die, and thrust himself into the spotlight in the process?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
February 10 2012 05:11 GMT
#658
Strangely, it was zarepath's first post that made me think zelblade was mafia. For zarepath to go for a random lynch with a system that was anything but random made me think that they had planned a little exchange between them that would establish them both as contributors without raising too much suspicion.

My biggest regret that whole game was holding back my opinions and waiting to make large, thought out posts. I realized I did it day 1 and thought I was dead because I was clearly acting like a blue (hi5 sl0osh). I really should have just put all my suspicions on the table as I had them. It would have made me look more green than blue and I think it would have kept me from tunneling as much.
Guts? Determination? $5?
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 10 2012 05:12 GMT
#659
I could see a confident townie doing that and explain themselves by saying it is for generating discussion. Mafia could pretend to be that and it would throw off people's reads.


I've actually been thinking about day 1s in general, and wondered how to get talking started (assuming normal game without mayor elections). For this game it was FakePromise's innocent but misunderstood/exaggerated 30% statement but how would you do that in other games?
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-10 05:29:49
February 10 2012 05:17 GMT
#660
On February 10 2012 13:59 Adam4167 wrote:
Zarepaths opening post is exactly what threw me. Scum 'generally' like to open discussion with a very neutral topic, like policy lynches. Why would a scum pick something much more abrasive, like randomly electing someone to die, and thrust himself into the spotlight in the process?


The problem wasn't the topic it was the "random lynching". He was advocating random lynches using a non-random method. In essence his plan was a cover for getting someone lynched that he had chosen. The fact that this was hardly mentioned really struck me when catching up on the thread.

Here is the logic
  1. You believe the odds are acceptable to randomly lynch
  2. You select someone at random as this is fair to everyone
  3. Profit?


Most people had issues with the odds and the lack of information that comes from random lynching but supporting those isn't exactly scummy. It is is just a difference of opinion and probably bad town play. The fact that he suggested "reverse alphabetical" means the process is not random and he was trying to get someone lynched.

Then when he flipped people should have realised that zelblade was zarepath's day 1 target (in his first post no less) and so was highly unlikely to be mafia. I didn't push this because I actually wanted zelblade lynched
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
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