Newbie Mini Mafia II

On January 04 2012 13:47 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
CatsnHats come on, be counteragressive. I'm picking on you for no real reason. I just want to get you to toughen up. If it comes down to it at the end and someone is agressive like this against you, and you just KNOW hes mafia, you better toughen up.

As of now, I'm going to sleep. So far I've seen one post that worries me. Will tell you guys in the morning :D!

On January 05 2012 01:13 Gretorp wrote:

Tuneg,

It doesnt make sense to vote me. If you have watched any NASL or seen me play mafia, you know i'm genius level but inexperienced with mafia. ALL times i've been in tl mafia, i've been a townie so my ability play townie is better than mafia. If you take my genius brain and then apply the situations, the EV for me in general is positive to the point where you dont want to vote me. But you probably know this, hence you want to kick me off because youre a mafia.

SO I VOTE YOU, AND YOUR COUNTRY.

#VOTE TUNEG

@ CatsnHats, slightly better. What do you think about Tunkeg's aggressive playstyle?

On January 05 2012 01:44 CatsnHats wrote:


Lurking around at the beginning, writing a paragraph of text that amounts to nothing, and then OMGUS-ing the person that prods you... not a good look Gretorp. Pretty scummy if you ask me.

On January 05 2012 07:31 Jitsu wrote:

RE: Catsnhats

+ Show Spoiler +

3 accusations on 3 targets in 3 posts might be too much, but it's a shit-ton better than 0 accusations on 0 targets in a small amount of posts. Out of the three players, you are giving me the hardest scum read out of all. The filler in his post is basically him going through the motions and agreeing/disagreeing with what people have said already.


As of right now, I think you need to post something with substance. You said that you are waiting for the last few lurkers to post. The last few lurkers have posted. Where are you're reads at?

On January 05 2012 08:31 AnxiousHippo wrote:
People usually just vote whenever they feel like it (once the thread is made of course...), you can change your vote later if need be.

On January 05 2012 08:19 CatsnHats wrote:


God you all type so fast. By the time I compose a post 5 more have popped up, including posts by AH and CM who were starting to worry me with their inactivity.

The last of the lurkers have not posted. The day started about 22 hours ago and Blurry has said nothing. That certainly doesn't bode well for him.

You want accusations, here are my slight scum reads.

RE: Xeris

Inactive early and his only posted content centers on not lynching after much discussion has already taken place amongst the town about why that is a bad idea. That would seem to be a play for a mafia freekill on N1.

RE: CookieMaker

Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with. I cannot let you off the hook yet for shady opening play. The poem, Odin/Thor references, fluff posts, "jabbing and dodging" who you accused of jabbing and dodging, etc. All of this leans towards scum I think.

RE: Gretorp

He is the scummiest player so far. From the joke in post one to the back down in post two to this new third post, every response is just too cute and offers nothing in the way of analysis or contribution. Two to three sentence posts of no substance seem very suspicious.

My vote right now would be for Gretorp, but I'm not going to make it official cause I still want to hear more from the three I listed here and Blurry. I hope this is enough for you Jitsu.

On January 05 2012 08:39 CatsnHats wrote:


So the pressure votes people are making aren't set in stone? That's good to know. If that's the case then, I feel pretty comfortable throwing out a pressure vote.

##Vote Gretorp Say something, anything of substance please.

On January 05 2012 12:27 Jitsu wrote:
Also, just so I have it here. I am willing to bet that if Cats dies and flips red, Cookie will too.

On January 05 2012 12:18 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
\
@CatsNHats -You seem oh so scummy. Whats your take on lynching Cephiro? Would you be willing to join in on this little train we're starting?

Anyone else willing to hop on board, don't forget to pack a vote.

On January 05 2012 14:53 Probulous wrote:


Again, don't tell us who you think is town, who are the mafia? If you don't think Sheth, Jitsu and myself are mafia, why cast suspicion on us? You're seemingly convinced that both CM and Cephiro are mafia based off of other people's analysis. Who is the third mafia?

On January 06 2012 08:32 Jitsu wrote:
Holy shit, that bandwagon grew quick.



This nowhere near exonerates you. You lurk until a vote swing changes, than you come up and vote. My vote right now is staying where I just casted it.

You say he's been on you're scum list, and we should check you're filter. According to you're filter, you have scum reads on Gretorp, Myself, Sheth, Probu, Xeris, and Cookie. That's a lot of mafia in a 12 player game.

Regardless, you have 72 hours after the lynch to find a better target.

And I have 72 hours to find you a deeper hole.

On January 05 2012 15:13 CatsnHats wrote:


I just getting all the possibilities out there, and I said that you all being mafia was low probability, so if anything that would be taking suspicion from you. As I have said before from the beginning, my third (albeit a distant one relative to the others) at the moment is Xeris due to his no-lynch posts, lurking, and non-responses to player questions. He has left very little material to go on, but that is my third for now. For me it's Cephiro>CM>Xeris. I could see Xeris dropping off this list though when he, Gretorp, AH, Blurry, and others post again.

RE: CookieMaker

Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with. I cannot let you off the hook yet for shady opening play. The poem, Odin/Thor references, fluff posts, "jabbing and dodging" who you accused of jabbing and dodging, etc. All of this leans towards scum I think.

On January 05 2012 13:08 CookieMaker wrote:

Your evidence was everything I had against Cats. My plan was to transition out of "Sheth should have put more pressure on him" into "... and this is why". I felt like I was getting unlucky after analyzing 4-5 players and coming up with zero good scum reads and only 1-2 town reads (despite the consensus against Ceph, I'm still confident in my read). Finally when I stumble upon a clear winner for wishy-washy of the year award, you've already beaten me to it. Cats was going to be my big expose'.

##Vote for CatsnHats

On January 06 2012 08:36 AnxiousHippo wrote:
I haven't been able to go through everything as well as I hoped but we need a lynch. There was a lot of discussion on Cephiro but I haven't been able to read through it thoroughly enough so I'm going for Tea
##Unvote: Xeris
##Vote: A Killer Cuppa Tea

On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote:
@CatsNHats get your head back in the game if you're town you should be more focused on killing mafia than convincing everyone you're a dead weight. Just keep trying, your last paragraph was decent, try expanding on that.

On January 06 2012 11:40 Probulous wrote:
Don't you dare throw in the towel! That is a shitty thing to do. Hell ask for a replacement if this is too hard for you.

If you are town, fight for your life. I am pissed at AKCT for his apathy. You at least have been posting. Take a break and come back later with a case on someone. You realise if you throw in the towel and you are green you are severly handicapping the rest of us?

You noticed that Hippo hasn't been contributing. Do what Gonz did and make people see your point of view. The argument against you is long and has substantial evidence. There isn't anything you can really do except be useful to town.

I hate it when people do this. It is so passive aggressive and weak. Grow a spine and take the heat. If you get lynched, well better luck next time. But this, is aweful.

On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote:
When? Don't think we've forgotten.

On January 07 2012 16:40 Probulous wrote:
To the rest of the town, please can I have your thoughts on Sheth and Cephiro? I am re-reading the thread over and over again and re-evaluating my positions on people.

Hippo you still haven't posted anything of contribution, but I hope that your analysis is good. I would much rather a full blown case than three lines parroting someone.

Cats, your poor bastard

You're caught and you still copy other's arguments. You're looking for a way to contribute which is good, but is both a town and scum perogative, so it's a null tell really. If you want to save your skin, answer my question at the top of this post.

Blurry you may have fallen off the face of the earth but if you don't show up soon I swear you will be falling with a rope around your neck.

Christ out of 10 players we have four lurkers If they don't start posting, we're fucked.

As for my contribution, I will post my top scum pick in the next 24 hrs or so which should give people plenty of time of analyse my case. I was sorely disappointed with the response my cases received last time, this time I want criticism.

On January 07 2012 10:30 AnxiousHippo wrote:
I'm working on the bandwagon analysis

On January 08 2012 05:46 gonzaw wrote:

Also people, what do we do regarding Xeris/Gretorp? Just wait?

On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote:

Also, your crazy to not think that there is no relation between who you analyse and find scummy and whether or not you are scum. If the person we follow along with the most picks 3 town in a row, theres a solid chance hes mafia. If the person we follow kills 3 mafia in a row, theres a solid chance hes town. I don't know how you can't agree with that.

On January 08 2012 13:22 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I'm staying up till Responsibility ends. (My last game here). So please post while I'm still here Prob! Or Cats!

On January 06 2012 00:53 Blurry wrote:
Okay, my last post for the day:

Staying on CM/Tea as I am still unsure about Cephiro.

Other than that, I'm sorry I couldn't contribute more this first day as I am still new to this and am not sure what to look for in terms of reading players but by going over players posts I am getting a good idea and I'm sure my analysis quality will steadily improve over the course of the game.

One thing that strikes me looking back at all this is CM voting for CatsinHats. If CM/Tea is indeed scum then I think this provides evidence towards cats not being scum as I dont think CM would have been that meta especially with the holes in his play he has already shown. This can't be assumed however so I would still be suspicious.

On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.

Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.

My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.

On January 08 2012 13:44 CatsnHats wrote:


I don't feel comfortable voting for you Sheth. I think Xeris, Gretorp, AnxiousHippo, and Blurry all have had as much scummy behavior as you, just less activity. I think you are getting targeted because you have a higher quantity of posts, making it easier for you to be quoted/analyzed. My target right now would be Blurry or AnxiousHippo, mainly because they are the most likely to respond at this point. Blurry has made 11 posts overall (an amount big enough to be remembered, but not enough to be picked apart like you), 1post yesterday, which is WIFOM filler



and one post today, which was WIFOM filler.



His big analysis post was 1-2 sentences on each player. Not enough content. Thoughts?

On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:


Yes I would, and will.

#Vote: Liquid'Sheth

As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it.

On January 08 2012 22:41 Blurry wrote:
EBWOP:

##Vote: Liquid'Sheth

Wrong format.

If he flips something like blue or green however I think we should seriously look into Probulous.

On January 09 2012 06:55 Cephiro wrote:
Hey everyone! It took me longer to get back than expected, but I am going to post a lot of stuff before the lynch. Should be done in 1-1,5 hours or less, will post each post as I finish it.

In the meanwhile, I am not going to vote for anyone else than Cats or Sheth today. Sheth lynch > Cats lynch > No lynch IMO.

(Also, don't even think I am bandwagoning on Sheth, I would probably have posted my case even before Probulous if I hadn't been busy IRL.)

First I will simply browse through the thread and reply to anything I feel necessary, and then I will re-read everyone's filters and post my analysis.

On January 09 2012 07:56 Cephiro wrote:
And why would you compliment my last paragraph? Because it points the finger at you. If I didn't include you, would that make it better than "decent"? Or are you just complimenting it because you think I would let you off the hook?

And this is the time when you randomly start pointing small suspicions against everyone random, hoping to confuse people a bit. Seriously, calling Probu out on that?

On January 09 2012 10:00 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
##Unvote: Liquid`Sheth
##Vote: CatsnHats

On January 09 2012 10:05 Cephiro wrote:


I already got scared for a moment. A no-lynch would have got the mafia a free kill. Now all that remains is to see Sheth flip red.... if he won't I'll be damned.

On January 09 2012 10:46 Jitsu wrote:


What the fuck?

On January 09 2012 11:49 Jitsu wrote:
Mafia -
Sheth
Cats
Blurry

Next game.

On January 08 2012 13:44 CatsnHats wrote:
My target right now would be Blurry or AnxiousHippo, mainly because they are the most likely to respond at this point. Blurry has made 11 posts overall (an amount big enough to be remembered, but not enough to be picked apart like you), 1post yesterday, which is WIFOM filler



and one post today, which was WIFOM filler.



His big analysis post was 1-2 sentences on each player. Not enough content. Thoughts?

On January 09 2012 07:16 CatsnHats wrote:


Admission of bandwaggoning. You can't claim you were suspicious of him if you didn't post anything. That statement means nothing except "I'm sheeping Prob's content."



And what is this?I have a feeling you KNOW Sheth is going to flip green, and you are using this knowledge to throw suspicion on Probulous after that happens. And as I said in my other post you've really said nothing but WIFOM filler. You're playing exactly how I think a lurking mafia would play (making posts every once and a while, not committing in analysis, apologizing for not adding content, bandwagoning, etc).

It seems like we are heading for a no-lynch, but I am not voting for Sheth because I think he's town.

##Vote: Blurry

On January 09 2012 12:49 bkrow wrote:
To be honest, considering those posts i don't see the case against Blurry more convincing than the case against Gretorp (now replaced by Paperscraps) - either Gretorp is very busy or very bad at being scum. Neither of those 2 situations are beneficial for town; but he is the first one that really grabbed my attention as inactive and intentionally dodging questions. He even promised analysis and.. well yeah..

I would love to hear from Paperscraps after he has caught up on the thread

On January 10 2012 02:50 blubbdavid wrote:
God, reading Mafia makes me paranoid.

On January 09 2012 05:37 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Before I go to watch the game (steelers v broncos) I'll put my vote down where I think it can do some good. As again a no-lynch is a bad option, I'll understand if you lynch me as opposted to no one, but please this is just going to tell you I'm town and force you to look harder at Probulous and those who bandwagoned me for no reason or bad reasons, which I think you can already do now. I would much rather see Blurry or Cats lynched today (Cephiro if I thought I could get him possibly, and Gonzaw I havn't done a full read so I don't feel ok lynching him yet).

Having re-read Jitsu's filter and Cats' filter a couple of times, I feel confident that Cats actually has been getting help from his mafia brethren on a few posts and that he actually is scum. I think he is our best bet at getting a mafia tonight, and when he flips red we'll have much more information to go on.

##Vote: Catsnhats

On January 10 2012 08:58 Probulous wrote:
ooh day post coming up

Will I live or will I die? If I'm here, Bk, I am watching you. Paper and Kron you guys really need to contribute something, Blurry too. Here's to hoping!

On January 10 2012 10:04 Probulous wrote:
Anyone roleblocked?

On January 10 2012 13:27 Probulous wrote:
Honestly Cats, if you flip town you will have learnt the most important thing about mafia. You have to take positions based on cases and stick by them. Even if you are wrong and look like an idiot that is much better than being a flake. To be fair Blurry has gotten away with it because you looked worse. He will be getting a thorough examination.

Your play has gotten better over time but unfortunately too late. No hard feelings I hope.

On January 10 2012 15:41 Probulous wrote:
Cats, you confuse me, so how about a deal? I will keep my position open on your alignment if you give me a thorough case on why I should vote for Blurry over you.

The others seem pretty happy lynching you, which bothers me. This wagon is a little too easy to get going. Whether that is because your mafia brethren have given up on you or because you are town, is hard to say. Convince me.

In particular, look at my reasons for thinking Blurry is town and poke holes in it. I want people to tear my analysis apart, right now the rest of the town seem content to just accept stuff that is well formatted. You will go a long way to redeeming yourself in my eyes if you can do that for me.

I will try my best to read your case without bias, however if you are going to get this town to vote with you it will need to write a convincing case. Blurry hasn't done himself any favours so it should be a fair fight.

Show me what you got!

On January 05 2012 01:13 Gretorp wrote:


Tuneg,

It doesnt make sense to vote me. If you have watched any NASL or seen me play mafia, you know i'm genius level but inexperienced with mafia. ALL times i've been in tl mafia, i've been a townie so my ability play townie is better than mafia. If you take my genius brain and then apply the situations, the EV for me in general is positive to the point where you dont want to vote me. But you probably know this, hence you want to kick me off because youre a mafia.

SO I VOTE YOU, AND YOUR COUNTRY.

#VOTE TUNEG

On January 05 2012 03:20 Gretorp wrote:
haha aws just kidding with the post but I will definitely once I analyze more ;-)

On January 05 2012 07:36 Gretorp wrote:
cephiro, why are you trying to create outlandish narratives to make a decisive choice? You aren't' leaving much range for people to be townie. so interesting! :-)

On January 05 2012 12:08 Gretorp wrote:
I work for most of the day and this goes pretty fast while I do a lot of projects for NASL. That being said, I want to know how many people actually believe this knowing that assumption. And I'm assuming people are thinking that i have as much time as them, hence I'm interested if you change your position based on activity.

On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote:
And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot

On January 09 2012 14:44 Paperscraps wrote:
Hey Everybody,

Glad to be here. I have been "semi" keeping up with the thread, but I will need to read through the filters to get a better read on people. I definitely plan on being more active than my predecessor.

I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow.

On January 10 2012 09:39 Paperscraps wrote:
Hey all, just got home from school.

Ok onto reads and analysis.

Blurry Scum

1.
+ Show Spoiler +

Either Blurry is trying to bus his mafia buddy, to alleviate further pressure from himself or has great gut instincts. I am leaning more toward the former, but he did make somewhat of a case about Sheth just pressuring and not weeding out scum. Read through his filter, something just doesn't feel right about him. I am interested in what his response will be.

Xeris (Kron) Null

Not much to say about Xeris (Kron) atm. Better to focus attention on other more active players until the need arises. Lurking is tricky and Kron might just be following the role already laid out before him, but that will only last for so long. I honestly think both players are/were inactive and not playing the game at all. If anything though is leads to a slightly scummy read.

Note: I guess the same case could be made about me, but I hope to post more frequently and provide real analysis and reads. I am new to Mafia via forums though, so I will have to find the groove here.

CatsNHats Town

Either inexperienced town or smart scum. In his first post he said he never played before, so that leads to believe he is just an inexperienced townie. No real reason to lie on your first post, unless you just want to troll the whole game, but I guess I would want to see the good in people not the bad.

He has posted a bunch of wishy-washy banter and defeatist attitude. Again either noob town or smart scum. Still leaning more towards noob

Jitsu, Probulous and Cephiro Town.

It will be interesting to see who the mafia kills, I think after tonight we will be able to get a better read on the mafia.

On January 10 2012 10:39 Paperscraps wrote:
Re-reading the filter of Cats and Jitsu. Jitsu being confirmed townie leads me to Cats being scum. Cats wishy-washy garbage and acting with Sheth saved him for one more day, but Jitsu's death has saved the town I think.

I am still leaning toward scum on Blurry as well.

We should deal with Cats first though and do Jitsu some justice.

On January 11 2012 07:01 Probulous wrote:


Much better

This in particular stood out to me "Jitsu's death has saved the town I think". There is no way that town is better off with Jitsu dead. Ironically his initial position that you were town gave him more credibility in my eyes which is why I asked him to explain it, he then changes his mind and with the flimsiest of reasoning.

Who do you think is the other mafia?

On January 11 2012 12:02 Paperscraps wrote:


1.Xeris is just a hunch, but really a non-factor as long as long as you are still alive. I had to post something to show I was active. It takes time to get caught up, and re-reading filters definitely reveals more and more as time goes on.

Kinda making my case. Just because you wanted to show you were active doesn't mean you have to post no-analysis sheep filler.




2.I still am not quite sure about Blurry, he hasn't really done anything to justify himself as of yet. Also your sudden change of heart about him isn't helping that either, because you are the scummiest read town has at the moment.

I justified my change of heart with analysis to support it, so you shouldn't have a problem with my new opinion other than to scrutinize it with analysis of your own.



3.This is what I was referring to. Blurry is clearly is leaning towards town on Sheth.
+ Show Spoiler +

He said "time will tell." And you forgot this post too, Paperscraps. Blurry calls out Sheth after the post you quoted, after "time told" if you will, and was one of the only people to do so. (important sentence bolded below)





4.Basically this all sums up to a redirection or deflection of scrutiny that is on you Cats and Blurry. I am positive that Cats in scum now, because he is scared that I suspect him of it and now gives some pretty trivial/wrong accusations against me. Sounds like he is getting desperate. This also further makes Blurry look bad.

All of a sudden Blurry is clean in your eyes? or maybe he is your scum buddy! I am guessing that latter. I bet this was your plan for the whole day to vote up Blurry, then have some sudden revelation and vote up a townie who isn't even responsible for half of his time in the game yet.

Again I backed up my change of heart with analysis, something you yourself cannot claim. Also nice job saying that I am redirecting scrutiny from myself and Blurry when I just finished claiming you were doing the same to us. Come on, that's blatant OMGUS and you know it. And that is a definite WIFOM hypothetical if I have ever seen one.

##Vote: CatsNHats

On January 11 2012 14:11 Cephiro wrote:

@ Cats: Give me a list of the persons you are willing to vote for today. (Based on your current opinion.)

On January 11 2012 13:52 Paperscraps wrote:



I like the sucking up to Ceph here. Apologizing definitely isn't a scum tell at all. /endsarcasm

On January 11 2012 14:00 Paperscraps wrote:

If worst comes to worst and we can't get a majority on Cats, then I wouldn't be against lynching Xeris(Kron). If you are sure that Xeris or I are mafia, then I am sure that it is him. This would help my case towards being town and we would be one less inactive.

Lynching Cats or Xeris is win-win for me.

On January 11 2012 13:52 Paperscraps wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

1. I don't really get how posting my initial feel and stance on the town leads to you thinking I am scum. I posted, because I didn't want people to think they had another lurker/inactive ruining the game for them.

2. As for your analysis of Blurry:


I can actually agree with this. I wish he would post more. He has you pegged as scum, so that makes him a little less noob though, haha.

3. Blurry does call out Sheth. I skipped over that because he does it in a shy way though and never follows through with analysis.

4. I had suspicion of you long before you voted me up, this isn't retaliation or OMGUS. I don't know what WIFOM hypothetical you are talking about either.

+ Show Spoiler +

I like the sucking up to Ceph here. Apologizing definitely isn't a scum tell at all. /endsarcasm

On January 11 2012 12:02 Paperscraps wrote:

4.Basically this all sums up to a redirection or deflection of scrutiny that is on you Cats and Blurry. I am positive that Cats in scum now, because he is scared that I suspect him of it and now gives some pretty trivial/wrong accusations against me. Sounds like he is getting desperate. This also further makes Blurry look bad.

All of a sudden Blurry is clean in your eyes? or maybe he is your scum buddy! I am guessing that latter. I bet this was your plan for the whole day to vote up Blurry, then have some sudden revelation and vote up a townie who isn't even responsible for half of his time in the game yet.

##Vote: CatsNHats

On January 12 2012 06:12 Blurry wrote:
The idea that me immediately voting for Sheth was somehow a mafia plan to make me innocent in the town's eyes is rather stupid. I am not a good player by any stretch of the imagination so why would he sacrifice himself to try and help make one of the weakest players in the game look more innocent. It was not clear that he was going to be lynched. May I remind you that the vote for him succeeded by just one vote. If I had been scum I would have either feigned inactivity and not voted, or perhaps voted for Cats who was already under a lot of suspicion at that point.

On January 12 2012 05:43 Paperscraps wrote:



Even after Jitsu is killed and confirmed townie, he calls him "suspected"? Sounds pretty scummy to me.

Then he comments on my filter being small, which wasn't in my control at the time, being a replacement and all. I can't be held accountable for joining mid-game. Another scummy thing to stay.

Good luck hunting scum today town.

May the best man win!

On January 12 2012 08:31 Blurry wrote:
Since I do not think it would matter if I tried to disprove Gonzaw's points, I won't even try:

I am the medic

I have been healing probulous since Night 1. Do what you will with this information...

On January 12 2012 08:31 Blurry wrote:
Since I do not think it would matter if I tried to disprove Gonzaw's points, I won't even try:

I am the medic

I have been healing probulous since Night 1. Do what you will with this information...

On January 12 2012 09:17 Probulous wrote:


Whilst this claim is somewhat unexpected, it doesn't really change our vote today. I think it unlikely that blurry was going to get lynched and we can let the mafia deal with him tonight. Either he protects me tonight and I survive, or mafia target him and I surive. I die, you lynch him.

If he flips blue we can take a look at people targeting him if he survives he has a lot of explaining to do.

Cats, this is just so wrong I don't know what to make of it. A medic saves people from a night kill, not the lynch

On January 12 2012 09:18 Cephiro wrote:


I'm having a really hard time deciding whether I should vote for you or Paperscraps, since you two are the only ones likely to get lynched today.

You do understand that if we lynch Paperscraps, and he flips green, and you don't die during the night, you are pretty much lynched on D4 no matter what?

Are you that sure on Paperscraps being scum?

I'll have to re-read the filters of the both of you.

On January 12 2012 09:39 Probulous wrote:
No, you're right Gonz. Blurry is lying.

##Vote Blurry

On January 12 2012 09:54 Probulous wrote:


I would rather no lynch than lynch a townie.

There is no reason for Blurry to lie. Saving your skin by claiming only works when you claim early. I want him lynched but if that can't happen, then I will vote Paperscraps. Gonz, what is your take on this?

On January 12 2012 09:57 Probulous wrote:
Calm down cats, we have four on Blurry

On January 12 2012 10:09 Probulous wrote:
I will explain my play just before daybreak.

You guys can lynch me tomorrow if I survive the night.

On January 13 2012 10:10 Probulous wrote:






For those interested. This was when Sheth was going on about the DT.

On January 13 2012 10:21 gonzaw wrote:


However, I find it weird that you didn't play like a "blue" instinctly plays, like I read on Ver's Guide.

On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:


Probulous you probably weren't expecting this, but I'm about to change up my read. The more I read Blurry's thread, and I've read through it multiple times now, the more I think he is just a lurker newb not sure how to contribute. Even when he sheeped against me so hard recently, he admitted that he was doing it immediately. He was the 2nd person to vote for Sheth (and he had a surprisingly good read on him for posting so little). And the WIFOM posts I called him out on earlier make more sense in light of the fact that he says he has been using his gut alot since he feels his analysis isn't up to par. Your gut is the only way to make a decision about a WIFOM situation. I feel like I can read newb play, being that I was/still am one, and Blurry definitely strikes me as a lurker newb town now. Thats being said, he still needs to post more.

All of this reading wasn't in vain, because after perusing through filters I found a different target.

Paperscraps: Being a Replacement Doesn't Make You Innocent


A replacement for Gretorp, Paperscraps wasn't done any favors by having a terrible predecessor. Gretorp was a shady, shady player, drawing the suspicions of everyone despite having a small number of posts. Tunkeg the night killed townie called out Gretorp for lurking and responded with this:



What is this other than OMGUS and an attempt to confuse the town? A very shitty move for a townie to make. After being pressured on this ridiculous post, Gretorp responds:



In other words, "LOL jk guys if I promise to make reads will you stop pressuring me?"







These are Gretorp's last 3 posts. Post #1 is an attempt to put pressure on someone else. Post #2 is an attempt to make an excuse to relieve the pressure on himself. And Post #3 is an attempt to make a promise to relieve the pressure on himself. And then poof, he was gone. This reads really scummy to me.

Enter Paperscraps. Here's his first post.



Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though.



Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy.

Paper claims that:
"Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy."

Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player.



Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter.

With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry.

Because of all of this reasoning above:

##Unvote: Blurry
##Vote: Paperscraps

I look forward to your response Paperscraps.

And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED.

On January 11 2012 13:26 CatsnHats wrote:


Overall this is a poor rebuttal Paperscraps. My answers are bolded and underlined.

On January 11 2012 14:55 CatsnHats wrote:


Really? I know apologizing can be a scum-tell but I actually missed/misunderstood what he was referring too, apologized for it, and he cleared it up. You're reaching.



And of course lynching the lurker or me would be best for you, because neither of them are YOU. And that doesn't help your case towards being town. Alot of the grunt work analysis done on me was before you entered the game and I picked up my play, you have no claim to it other than bandwagon. And lynching a lurker gets no one town cred.

On January 12 2012 06:18 CatsnHats wrote:


What out of this post am I dodging, exactly? There isn't really a question posed to me. For #1, it's good that you posted and are active, but you were just echoing the past (very vocalized) concerns of other players, so it doesn't really do anything to help you. I love #2. "As for your analysis of Blurry, I actually agree with it." Haha I thought you were going to shoot holes in it, but oh well. And in #3, you admit to skipping over the evidence that debunks your argument (that Blurry thought Sheth was town), that just doesn't sit well with me. As for #4, the WIFOM hypothetical is you saying this in the post where you vote for me (section bolded):



This whole scenario is impossible to prove and is pretty outlandish if you ask me. WIFOM like this does nothing to help the town. It is a good way for scum to deflect pressure though.

On January 13 2012 11:05 bkrow wrote:
So i'm here! I am running out for an hour, but i have caught up on the thread; Prob a DT.. Fuck me! Did he say who he checked on all the nights? I just wanted to let ya'll know i am here for about 3 and a half hours and then i will probably AFK except for my vote (i am getting married next weekend, and this weekend is a big deal in my religion)

I have always been suspicious of Paper so that is where i will place my vote by the end of the day unless i get convinced otherwise. BRB 1 hour peeps let's do this town!

On January 13 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote:
Thanks Prob, you've been our MVP up until now. I knew you were DT because you said you HAD to lynch Sheth, even if you're arguments were irrational. I thought you had checked my N2 though, because you changed your opinion of me and I didn't think that was possible unless you had looked at me.

On January 09 2012 10:09 Probulous wrote:
@Sheth, I hope that wasn't too bad! I know some of my arguments weren't exactly rational but I had to get you lynched.

Maybe chat after the game. Thanks for playing!

For CatsnHats:
Gonz goes from (slight town) to (null) to (very-pro town) to (suspicious) to (scum). Very minimal reasoning for all of these assertions.

On January 13 2012 17:12 bkrow wrote:
I.e. if Paper flips red then we can assume Cats and Gonz are likely green and Ceph is the remaining scum;

If he flips green.. we lose? lol

The issue i have is that one of the above players could have just bussed a mafia buddy to throw us all off; but i doubt that much effort would have beeen put into an analytical post which has the chance of convincing the town on a lynch.

Well.. thoughts?

On January 13 2012 10:48 Cephiro wrote:


But you weren't confirmed by Prob either any more than me. (I consider confirmed by Prob only the people that he checked)

I'm still not sold on that you would be a townie. Could you provide YOUR cases on Gonzaw and Paperscraps, and include that why do you think the other is a bigger threat?

I will be leaving in a few minutes myself, but when I come back, I'm going to post a lot. A LOT. (And it's not going to be useless fluff.)

On January 12 2012 09:40 Cephiro wrote:
##Vote Paperscraps

If he flips green and Cats is alive in the morning.... I'll vote for him and won't change my vote no matter what.

I do this only because you've picked up your play and you finally stand by your case. I hope I am doing right in trusting you.

On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote:

WIFOM alert, which is more likely?

Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him.

Or

Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz?

Or

We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time?

On January 13 2012 10:48 Cephiro wrote:

I'm still not sold on that you would be a townie. Could you provide YOUR cases on Gonzaw and Paperscraps, and include that why do you think the other is a bigger threat?

On January 13 2012 09:32 Cephiro wrote:

One point that I find interesting is that Cats and Probu have had a lot of discussion between them, whereas Paper and Gonzaw have been playing much more individually. Is it a tell of something? Maybe. It could be or it could not be.

On January 14 2012 14:31 Paperscraps wrote:

Summary:
Both gonzaw and Cats are slipping now that the pressure is on. Both are making mistakes/contradictions. They are being evasive. Just look at how Cats is being so passive, yet he knows I am mafia! Where is the analysis! We are MYLO and he is dodging. gonzaw I am not worried about, it is plain as day that he is mafia.

I implore Cephiro and bkrow to let go of the fact that Probu liked Cats more than me. Probu has been wrong before. Probu never made a solid case against me. Probu didn't provide hardly any analysis on me at all. Don't let opinions of others decide the towns fate. Use logic. I want to see what YOU guys have to say!

On January 14 2012 04:37 Paperscraps wrote:



My responses are bolded.

Don't give up the pressure on Cats town! He hasn't provided any analysis. He said he would make a post about gonzaw, where is it? We have him grasping at straws.

@bkrow: I am also curious about your reasoning, that if I flipped red that would make Cephiro scum? please clarify this.

@Cephiro: Looking forward to your actual analysis. Not like this mostly filler post by Cats.

On January 14 2012 19:57 Paperscraps wrote:
I've also been pondering some things.

@CatsnHats:
Question: Does it strike you as odd that Cephiro voted you up instead of gonzaw?

Cephiro and gonzaw are still a possibility for mafia, even though it is slim.

@Cephiro:
I think you are town. However you can't be 100% certain that I am town and I can't be 100% certain you are either. Just making sure we cover all possibilities.

I am very interested in your take on gonzaw.

Question: Would you be willing to lynch gonzaw instead of CatsnHats?

In the off-chance you are mafia, you are very devious haha. I can't find anything in your filter to suggest you are scum though.

On January 15 2012 02:37 Paperscraps wrote:
EBWOP: I am taking a risk here, by giving you this little pep-talk Cats. It could make me look bad in Ceph's and bkrow's eyes. I am willing to risk it though if you can prove to me that Ceph is mafia, with analysis.

No one can be completely trusted here at the end.

Ceph has claimed to be great at mind games and could have been letting us duke it out and side with the player who made the better case against the other, which I think is me of course. Essentially letting town kill itself. Overall I think this very unlikely, but I would like to cover all bases.

On January 13 2012 17:09 bkrow wrote:
As explained earlier this is all happening at a pretty poor time; any day during this week would have been perfect but this weekend is going to be hectic.

Basically, my thoughts come down to this. We have the following list

Paperscraps
CatsnHats
Cephiro
Gonzaw

From that above list 2 are scum and 2 are town. There was a considerable case mounted against Paper prior to Blurry's fuck up and i believe he most likely would have been lynched if not for the worst role claim in history. I have not forgotten about that, nor do i believe that it would be the wrong choice to lynch Paper.

However, both Jitsu and Prob have suggested Gonz as a viable lynch target. His general posting attitude and demeanour is not very town like as it is very aggressive. The consolation is that this brings a lot of attention to his posts which is not ideal if he was mafia.

Paper launched an offensive against Gonz; so if he is scum, it is likely that Gonz is not scum
Cats launched an attack against Paper; so same logic as above

I read through Ceph's filter and i honestly think the kid is a townie based on his posts; so now this just puts me in a position of Paper and Cats being scum, which i don't think is likely based on the above.

I think lynching Paper is our best bet at the moment - the lynch on Blurry REALLY fucked us up; lynching Paper gives us a lot of useful information on Gonz and Cats.

On January 15 2012 09:48 Cephiro wrote:
So you're counting on the fact that bkrow is going to show up? :/

That's not something we should rely on, as there is only a bit over 10 minutes to go on.

On January 15 2012 09:59 Cephiro wrote:
What if bkrow is mafia? No-one has even questioned Probu....

On January 15 2012 10:06 Cephiro wrote:
Well hell. I must've misread my PM, I thought I was town

On January 15 2012 10:06 Jitsu wrote:
Sigh.

On January 15 2012 10:12 gonzaw wrote:



I know right?

I wasn't even trying on D4 lol