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Oh dear, both of you at the same time.
The point is that if I find some scummy and they turn out to be wrong. Read the analysis. Of course as town you want to prove someone is scum by nailing them to the wall if you are town. You would do it less conclusively if you were scum. You tell the difference by the analysis, not by the vote. That is all I am trying to say, because people can easily get this impression that if you make a huge post calling someone out you cannot be unintentionally wrong.
On January 05 2012 13:33 Liquid`Sheth wrote: @Probulous you initially said " Think about it carefully, I have pushed my case based on his posts. If I am wrong, what does that tell you? Nothing! I have exactly the same information as anyone else. You don't like my analysis, show me why, but Cephiro's impending lynch says bugger all about my alignment."
I agreed that nothing conclusive comes out of a lynch. However even if your analysis is perfect it still says other things as well. Things that make someone look scummier or townier.
You then say
By the quality of the analysis. The same is true if he flips mafia, I agree it is unlikely that mafia would bus day 1. However, they could, the point being speculating about it gives us nothing. In my land, townie cred only exists from the scum you find. If I put together a thorough analysis on someone and they flip town, go back and read my analysis. Was I pushing something too far, was I focusing on some small irrelevant detail? That gives you clues to my alignment, not whether he flips green or red.
This post really confuses me. You say both "townie cred only exists from the scum you find" then "That gives you clues to my alignment, not whether he flips green or red" when you'd just said that it did matter if he flips red.
Come on, it matters if he flips red for this reason. When mafia want the game to start they don't want to kill off their town members first. Its clear. So even if you want to show your difference from other members you put pressure on them. You put small to medium pressure on. So later if they flip you can say "oh look I pressured them!" You don't write up a huge proof and then really try to nail them to the wall. I feel like I'm talking too much about this, but it bothers me that your not see'ing the same things I am here and you are my towniest read.
On January 05 2012 13:36 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 13:24 Probulous wrote:On January 05 2012 13:21 gonzaw wrote:On January 05 2012 13:14 Probulous wrote: Yes a smurf is a vet playing under a different name. Players do that? Why? I disagree but we can leave it for post-game. If that situation came up I woudl tell people to shut-up about and if they didn't listen would make my own case and push it. If we lose because people are derps that is not my problem. I cannot make you vote one way or another if you are not willing to listen. Anyway, leave it for now and we can discuss afterwards. Agreed.... See the first Student MafiaElectricBlack was Palmar's smurf and Blazinghand was WBG's. In this case it was to coach but sometimes people smurf because they want to survive night one. If a vet comes into a game with a repuation for hunting scum, they are already a target, hence the need for a smurf. But it kind of defeats the purpose of "Newbie Mafia". It's not fun having a vet shredding newbies to pieces in a game that doesn't correspond to him just because he "wants to survive night 1". It also means that he's free from having his meta used against him. Why should he have that "advantage" and other players not? Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:48 Probulous wrote:Whether he flips Town or Mafia says nothing about you or me. I am pushing his case based on what he has provided. I don't know whether he Mafia for sure, but he is the most likely. he is also the most dangerous because people don't seem to see what I see. If he flips town I am no more Mafia than if he flips Mafia. Okay, what is this? If he flips town or mafia (if he's lynched) it will tell alot about a lot of players. Isn't that the reason we were advocating a misslynch earlier? If he flips town, then it means your whole argument regarding him was false. It means that you "misread" a townie and advocated his lynch. Why would you do that? Were you honestly mistaken or did you do it intentionally? Regarding how you react to his flip, and looking at your filler, many players can conclude many things from this. You are basicly implying that if he flips town, then you are not suspicious and nobody should look at you. That would be pretty convinient if you are mafia, and pretty dickish if you are town.
I am not implying that if he flips town you shouldn't find me suspicious. On the contrary I am saying that if he flips town you should re-read the analysis and make up your mind based on that. I can't get someone lynched on my own, I have to convince people. If a townie gets lynched it cannot only be my fault, other must have voted too. How do you tell the scum? Through their reasons for voting, mine is my analysis. That is all I am trying to say, people's votes can give you a feel but they can also lead you to make assumptions that are wrong. Be careful!
Read Ver's Guide if you want to know what I am saying. Specifically the last paragraph, actually here is the quote
Now, what if by some miracle, Youngminii was lynched and flipped green, or worse, vigilante? What would that have said about Foolishness? Think hard and carefully here, because this is a logic issue that really has plagued the town in so many TL games, especially this one. At its core is the question: what does "lynching for information" actually mean?
The lynch outcome alone would have said nothing about Foolishness! If Foolishness is veteran, how does he have any definite knowledge of what Youngminii is? He doesn't, therefore he can only do his best and try to figure out YM's role from the tools he has. That in itself does not distinguish him from Godfather Foolishness one bit. The key distinction between the two is to look at how he got Youngminii lynched and his overall play, not that he got Youngminii lynched. The latter fact, while not entirely irrelevant, is nowhere near sufficient enough on its own to warrant a lynch (and everyone knows if YM had popped up vigi Foolishness would've been autokilled the next day).
Thus it would be nonsensical to lynch YM because you think it will give the most information (the information is next to useless). The only reason to lynch YM, or virtually anyone ever, is to kill mafia. That's it.
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Ok I get what you are saying Sheth
We agree that a vote alone tell you nothing. I should have rewritten this
"In my land, townie cred only exists from the scum you find"
as
"In my land, townie cred only exists from how you scum hunt."
In some ways finding scum can be a lucky gut feel. Proving they are scum is not but correctly identifying them depends a lot on how they post. I am trying to make sure that people read the reasons others give for voting. This is both before and after the lynch. I obviously have not been clear and perhaps this should be dropped for now.
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ROFLl that timing
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Also, if you've found one mafia you should come out in the open and tell us about it. There are other situations where either medic or detective should come out, such as if you know 3 confirmed town and were nearing LYLO. Use your best judgement on those situations. Does everyone agree that if you find a mafia the detective should come out with them?
Can we try to agree on something :p
This just puts you into a WIFOm situation where you end up trading a DT for one mafia. I don't like that trade. DT should stay hidden.
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On the topic of DTs, medics and the such. I stand by what I wrote in my analysis of both Cookie and Cephiro, I don't want to discuss them. My personel preference is for blues to stay hidden and do their own thing. I agree that a medic should obviously choose a dangerous townie (dangerous from a mafia POV), but again we don't need to discuss this. This is the last thing I will say about blue roles.
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*Personal.
I hate it when people get that wrong and I just did it. For shame
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On January 05 2012 14:20 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Ok, well I'm going to sleep now. I wasn't completely sure if the DT for one mafia was a good trade or not, so I brought it up to see everyone's reactions. I am leaning its probably good, if they have some other confirmed townies for sure. And this will all changed when we learn whether someone was RB'ed during night. (Then it means we have a medic who can save you if you come out). I want to hear more on that, and our cases from our lurkers.
Look forward to reading your post when I wake up Andre. Keep posting Duran! And probulous we can agree on some things I'm sure :D!
Why Sheth Just when you are looking good you write something that comes across really scummy. You are also making the same mistake I originally did, here are the setup options.
Set Up: 1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 7 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective 1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 9 Town 3 Mafia Goons, 1 Medic, 8 Town 3 Mafia Goons, 1 Detective, 8 Town
They can have a roleblocker with no blue roles. It just means that if someone is roleblocked, there are either no power roles or both DT and Medic. No point speculating now.
I know you are heading to bed but who are your top 3 scum reads, please before tomorrow morning.
Can we got a vote count please?
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On January 05 2012 14:45 CatsnHats wrote: For the record, I guess it is possible that Jitsu, Sheth, and Prob are the three mafia trying to pressure me from the beginning into voting for a target of their choice. I find it highly unlikely, however, that all three of you would be so vocal and hold such a majority of the spotlight, as this would certainly be a risky play. So I feel good about the vote switch. I just wanted to get this thought out there.
Again, don't tell us who you think is town, who are the mafia? If you don't think Sheth, Jitsu and myself are mafia, why cast suspicion on us? You're seemingly convinced that both CM and Cephiro are mafia based off of other people's analysis. Who is the third mafia?
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Alrighty, heading off now. I'll try be back 1-2 hours before the lynch.
As of now my lynch preference is
Cephiro > CatsnHats / CookieMaster
I am happy to lynch any of them. If someone can put together a really strong case for someone else, I will read and consider it, but it would have to be water tight for me to change. Sorry but timezones screw me over and I am only one vote anyway.
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Mmm interesting night!
Welcome A Killer Cup of Tea. Given you have only a short while till lynch and you are a replacement, I would suggest asking questions of everyone is just taking time away from reading the thread. Your best bet to save yourself is come up with who think is mafia and why. We can judge you on that.
Lynch Cephiro. He has sullied this town for too long.
Finally, CookieMaker, if you are reading I hope you didn't take my case on you as a personal thing. It was just a case and as you see everyone who I think is scum gets the same treatment. Chat later!
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On January 06 2012 06:50 Tunkeg wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 05:37 Liquid`Sheth wrote: So we've really gotten off topic here. We need 7 votes to get a lynch. We've all agreed we need a lynch today.
As far as I can tell (People format your votes like ##Vote: please )
Tunkeg - Gretorp --> A K C T CatsnHats - Gretorp --> Cephiro CookieMaker (A K C T) --> CatsnHats Blurry ---> A K C T Jitsu --> A K C T Liquid`Sheth --> Cephiro Probulous --> Cephiro Gonzaw --> Xeris
So, as of now thats 8 votes out of 12. We need a majority of 7 to lynch. Xeris, Gretorp, AnxiousHippo,Cephiro we NEED your vote!
Those of you who have your vote on A K C T are you willing to switch over to Cephiro if we don't have a lynch by the end of the day to at least get us a lynch? Who will be on for Lynch time? We lynch in exactly 4 Hours 23 Minutes from now.
Well my biggest scumread is CM/AKCT. I have Ceph on pretty neutral. So I will stick by my vote. I will go to bed in like 45 minutes, and I really don't want a no-lynch. So please the rest of you who haven't voted, please vote and make your vote count.
Hey Tunk before you go to bed let me explain claerly why Cephiro is a better bet than CM/AKCT.
If you reread CM filter he is clearly afraid to take positions, unfortunately this can be explained by being new. Yes we are all new and his posturing doesn't help but at least he awas active and gets more ascertive as time goes on. I also think it is fair to let AKCT have a little time to make a presence. That being said, so far not good I still have a scum read but it isn't as strong as Cephiro's.
AS you point out Ceph pops into the thread and then disapears, we have less than 2 hrs to lynch, why do this? As town if you are suspected with a split majority, surely you are going to be put some effort into absolving yourself, immediately! My biggest concern is his contradictory nature, he goes on about how people show be provacative and push reads, and pressure people, and then labels them scummy when they do. From his reads it seems he likes newbies who are wishy-washy more than people willing to take a stand. Read his section on you and try and see why a townie would say that?
He agrees with what you are doing, then labels you scummy because of it? He does this the whole game. Gives with one hands, takes with the other. He is happy casting doubt on people without any evidence but never actually takes a stand.
He must swing by his neck until dead.
Please cahnge your vote. For the next two hours I will pushing people to lynch him.
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That timing again
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On January 06 2012 07:08 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:CephiroYou are one smart SOB, but not smart enough Mr Scum. I am going to go slowly because you have a lot of posts and you look like your contributing, but when you look closely, you ain’t saying nothing! Your first post + Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.Also... Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote: Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? Sheth rightly pointed out the lack of content in this post. It looks great from a distance but says nothing. I point this out and you eventually play down the stats. More damning from my point of view is your support for Cookie’s first post. His post was way worse than mine, but you call me out and my stupid pun and support him? You still haven’t explained how what I wrote was a supposed “scum-slip” but it was enough to paint me suspicious straight up. In addition, you like Cookie go on about blue roles. This is a scum tactic, there is no reason for town to discuss the possible setup until we have information from the night events. Anything else risks outing blues, but you keep on about it. As I already admit earlier, I did end up agreeing that the stats would not be useful in early game, which is why I didn't ramble on about them further. I do not agree with you on your claim that there would be NO reason for town to discuss the setup until information from night events. Why? Because even though we are all newbies, there may be people with more experience and others with less. This enables the more experienced players to ensure that if a total "idiot" townie would have got a power role, it wouldn't be misused.
Here we disagree, I see no reason for town to try and tell blues what to do. The blue has no idea whether that person is truly town or a good scum, it doesn't help them either. Besides what you guy were speculating about is useless on Day 1. Fluff, smoke and mirrors.
Regarding your joke, I took it up to fish for reactions and give you a poke. I wanted to see if you would try to explain yourself more in-depth, or just regard it as a joke and excuse yourself not needing to analyze it any further. Which was fine for me, since I knew that message had no real meaning, I got what I wanted. + Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:11 CookieMaker wrote: Okay townies... we are presented with a dilemma. Disadvantage #1: There are few (if any) roles in this game, making identity confirmation scarce. However, that being said, the significant advantage we have over the mafia is their lack of killing power. They are only going to be able to snipe (at most, with any luck we got a doc) one person each night. This means the pressure is really going to be on them to avoid being lynched. I urge you, when voting time comes, do your homework, and proofread the homework of others carefully. Rash vote swings by emotional players only help the scum hide on their bandwagons.
I am making an assumption here, but the other likely advantage we possess is the experience of a few key players. I'd be absolutely shocked if all three mafiasifarians were players who had (lots of) prior experience playing, but I'd also be surprised if they were three complete newbies. My impression is that one mafia will be a strong player and will deftly manipulate and lead the other two.
So this is the first day. I elect #thefirstpersontocomeupwithaplan for mayor Why should I not support this post? In my opinion it provides a few basic, yet good points for people to remember. I do agree the latter part is just fluffy theorycrafting about someone leading the mafia, that doesn't really matter. To compare, this is your first post: + Show Spoiler +Probalous wrote on January 04 2012 10:12 I expect great things from those that have played before. It seems fair to me that they should be expected to contribute. Of course, everyone should be actively contributing, but I will be really disapointed if the guys who have played don't put in the effort. You know the cost and will be held accountable.
With this in mind can the following people let me know how many (if any) games they have played? Jitsu Xeris Gretorp Gonzaw
This is my first game and I intend to win. Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! I bolded the single only thing in your post that wasn't just fluff talking. There's not really a big difference if the guys have played 0 games or up to 1-2. But fine, I'm not blaming you for wanting to know, since it may be part of your strategy on making reads.
The difference is that my post had a purpose for being able to make reads, which when you asked I made clear. I even stated there that I was placing high expectations on those that had played before. I also wanted background to read. You know this but try and paste my first post as worse than Cookie's?
On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Then comes a nice filler post
+ Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:54 Cephiro wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:49 AnxiousHippo wrote: I'm pretty sure scum are sometimes referred to as Reds, I guess he was trying to make a pun? I don't think it was a slip. Myeah, You're probably right, since as I said, I wouldn't expect even a newbie mafia slip this early. Gotta be careful about puns though, they could be misunderstood. Even though it actually could be good scumbaiting, fishing for the player's reactions for better reads?Well, in any case we'll have to get some discussion going on. Or random accusations to get people to talk. (Or maybe I'm just too eager regardless of the fact I know most people in Europe won't be awake at a time like this.)
I admit, this post doesn't have much content. If you didn't notice, you totally ignored my question (bolded) here. May I know for what reason? You are claiming me for having contentless posts at start, yet you should just see some of yours again.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote: There is no mayor and that is big assumption given this is a specifically newbie game with everyone on less than 3 games. To me, it is more reasonable that nobody is an assumed strong player and we will find out who are, as we go along. Of course previous experience is useful for setting activity expectations but deciding on scum targets based on possible non-random allocation is a big reach. I don't like it.
Anyone that reads the rules knows there is no mayor. + The rest of the post is just your opinions about assumptions that are totally useless.[/quote]
Face to palm. Of course everyone should know there is no mayor, that is why Cookie's post was so bad. He clearly didn't read the rules, I was just pointing it out. I was responding to his huge assumption that the game wasn't randomised and yes, stating my opinion that strong players will reveal themselves. No filler here.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 11:05 Probulous wrote: Lovely maths, does it say anything
For one Mafia cannot have a roleblocker with no town power roles. The only setup with a roleblocker is one where we have both a medic and DT. Secondly, the maths doesn't help us actually do anything, unless there is something I am missing.
Thirdly a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch. I will be more happy to not lynch someone than lynch someone I think is town.
Yes it was a bad pun, I am not sure how it could be a scum tell. So much for trying to be entertaining You join in the so-called useless power role discussion, yet you are providing false information about the setups yourself. That could easily be trying mafia to mislead, but in all honesty, I think you just did a newbie mistake which could happen to anyone. My point being: Try not to be too eager to call others on mistakes you have done yourself.
Granted, but the both of you seemed to believe that discussing setups helps. I am was trying to find out why. You couldn't convince me.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 11:38 Probulous wrote: I agree with this. It is also why we need everyone to post. We can't catch scum if they say nothing.
Sheth, you finished dinner yet? Gretorp, Cats are you guys around?
Blurry and Cephiro, thanks for staying up so late. Were you talking about fillers...?
This is not filler, this is pointing out to Sheth, Gretorp and Cats that they need to contribute and their absence will not go un-noticed. A point that Sheth acknowledged.
Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:Your response to my question about what purpose the stats offer is + Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 11:21 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 11:05 Probulous wrote:Lovely maths, does it say anything For one Mafia cannot have a roleblocker with no town power roles. The only setup with a roleblocker is one where we have both a medic and DT. Secondly, the maths doesn't help us actually do anything, unless there is something I am missing. Thirdly a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch. I will be more happy to not lynch someone than lynch someone I think is town. Yes it was a bad pun, I am not sure how it could be a scum tell. So much for trying to be entertaining Well, it was mainly some statistics to prove how the situation is better for town in case the mafia has a role blocker and we have power roles.Also, there is a set up which contains both power roles (DT+Medic for town), and the mafia roleblocker. You can check the opening post for the 4 possible setups. I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage. And even if we don't, it will raise much more discussion and easier reads depending on who has been voting for who and so on. In other words, nothing. The rest is fairly decent.Again I pressure you on what purpose the stats offer and you finally agree that it means nothing. Nothing but fairly decent? I don't get you... And after this, as you pressure me on the usefulness of the stats, I finally realize that they aren't that useful earlygame, so after this I stop theorycrafting until later on.
Read it again. It is two sentences, the first saying that stats mean nothing and the second that the rest of your post is alright.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 11:44 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 11:27 Probulous wrote:My bad, I missed the second one in the list So essentially, there is a 50/50 chance of every role. How is this useful? I don't see how speculating over power roles helps. They don't change how we play. You still have to actively scum hunt and call out bullshit. Once someone claims or the night actions become apparent this info may be useful, but I don't like the idea of discussing it now.What do you want to do today? I am happy prodding people to post and then checking their response. Voting for those not contributing. Heh, such happens. But yeah, the statistics won't be very useful yet, but they are good to know anyway. (I study statistics at uni, and I love to try and apply them into everything.) I am quite sure it will become useful sooner or later, especially if we get the chance of backtracking roles. What I want to do today is covered in my post you already quoted. I would like us to be able to raise enough discussion and get a decent shot at who could be scum, since 2 mafia versus 8-9 townies (depending on if one dies N1 or not) would be an incredibly good situation for us. CookieMaker has a good point though, there is a 50% chance that there is a DT in the game, and buying him time to find the scum isn't a bad idea either. But we can't be certain if there is one or not, which why I'm still slightly favour for trying to lynch scum today, at least for now. We have quite a bit of time on us though, so if it seems like we can't get good reads on anyone and it's just a huge mess, we can still go for the no-lynch.Also, no problem for staying up late, I'm very bad at sleeping early and I'm so excited to play my first game of Forum Mafia! I will be going to sleep in 20 minutes or so though. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: But then you go again about the setup. If the stats of the setup mean nothing, than the setup itself means nothing. We cannot get any info from discussing it until we have night actions. These posts are long but you haven’t actually said anything. You look like your contributing but you aren’t. Going on about the setup? Not really, I only mention the possibility of buying a possible DT more time, not going on about setups further than that. I am not contributing anything? I bold my statement which is along the lines of my original post.
Point to something useful in that post.
Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:Your last post of the night was + Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 12:21 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 12:11 gonzaw wrote:So this is your first forum game ever? Not just first game on TL? You seem to know quite a bit about the game though, may explain why? Also, I'm fairly good with statistics/probabilities myself (just ask Jackal58), and I use them fairly in mafia games. If the situation arises, it can be very helpful, as long as everything in the game is RNGed. I assume this setup is RNGed, right? On January 04 2012 12:06 Probulous wrote: That is a good point Jitsu.
As I have stated, I am aiming for a mafia lynch. Only if I believe that we are headed for a miss-lynch will I advocate a no-lynch.
Again, where are the other US guys? Sheth, Gretorp? You're asking for a vote. The day is 48 horus long, right? I would suggest pressure voting lurkers/inactives after 24 hours or so are past. Although I don't know if you guys do that here or not. Yeah, it's my first forum game ever. Haven't played this anywhere else either. I've read through quite a bunch of advanced games on different forums though, and I generally consider myself good at mindgames or understanding what people think / why they do something etc. So I'm really excited to see if it's correlates to success in here. Yeah, you heard right, watch out mafia! I am going to sleep now though. I will re-read the thread (especially the new posts) a few times once I wake up and will try to join in as much as I can. If you have a hard time of trying to find out who is scum, then please do the town a favor and at least try to find some most-likely-town reads, since even that will help us narrow down the possible lynch. I do agree that we could pressure vote lurkers/inactives later on in D1, hopefully forcing them to defend themselves and give us better reads. Is there anything in there that helps town to catch scum? The only thing you say is that if you can’t catch scum, try and prove people are town, but of course you don’t do anything like that do you? Wishy-washy trash. How on earth can you claim this post is just wishy-washy trash? The first part may be, but it's because I answered Gonzaw's question about how I seem to know about the game. Why should I have left it unanswered? Nope, there is no reason why I should've skipped that. So don't blame it as wishy-washy trash. Skipping genuine questions would just wake up suspicisions, and why would I want that as a townie? Also, of course I wouldn't do anything like that, what is that bullshit? I was the first person to share all my reads. You certainly weren't.
Here is the most useful thing in that massive wall of text "If you have a hard time of trying to find out who is scum, then please do the town a favor and at least try to find some most-likely-town reads, since even that will help us narrow down the possible lynch"
Something you hadn't done at that point. In fact despite your massive amount of posts before you left you hadn't actually said anything. You had provided soft thoughts and opinions on how people should play, but didn't back it up yourself.
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On January 06 2012 07:11 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Now my personal favourite, your analysis. I will you credit for being the first person to post one but god damn you could not have done a worse job. I am going to go through each person and see how wrong you can be. + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.
Player List: 1.CookieMaker
For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: You lean town because ” But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game” Earth to Cephiro, it is everyone’s first (second or third) game. That is no excuse. Essentially you are saying that you disagree with everything he says but think he is town because this is his first game?
BAD Cephiro! You do realize that different persons react differently under pressure? If we put 10 persons in a situation none of them has ever been in, I can assure you that they will not react the same way. And my thinking here is that CM would be the type of person that would react in such a way. I can admit that's quite a long shot, but it's my read. I at no point said I disagree with everything he said, so you are putting words into my mouth here. Bad Probulous!
I have no problem with you giving CM a town read based on his newness, but why not others that have clearly contributed more. You have a soft spot for him for no apparent reason. He has given plenty of reasons for not being town whilst others, who have done much more, get painted scummy?
Your inconsistency for no reason doe snot makes sense if you are town. However, if you are mafia it makes perfect sense. Either CM is scum (likely) or he is an easy newb to sway.
Oh and the only thing CM was pushing was a no-lynch (which you diagreed with) and your first line is "For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility."
+ Show Spoiler +2.Liquid`Sheth
Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: At this point he had done more than Cookie. He had attempted to out scum by pressuring Cats. A point you recognize. I want you to read this again and again an try tell me why a town would say this
” Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content?”
Sheth had a reason, he made it clear. Cats was being non-commital. Even if he had not reason, pressure outs people. It is always good at this stage of the game. For this you paint him less town than Cookie AND slightly scummy?
BAD Cephiro! Maybe he had done more in your opinion. My opinion was that the only useful thing he had done (at that point), was that he had only pressured the new player, and then letting him off the hook just like that. The way he did it semt scummy to me, got a problem with that? I am just telling my genuine reads, don't like them, convince me otherwise. I was the first one to show everyone all my cards at that point, because I wanted to raise discussion. On the other hand, all you did is sat back and waited for everyone to talk, and came in with a huge-ass post later yourself. You left the scene since you were satisfied of most people considering you pro-town, and you slipped under pretty much everyone's radar, not many people were wondering why you weren't taking part in discussion. And when you came with your huge scumpost, all you did was provide very short explanation why you think some people are town, then stating "These are just neutral to me, that's it", and then moving all the attention into your huge scumpost. Effectively focusing everyone on your scumpost, and turning the attention away from yourself, to ensure people don't change their townread about you, but concentrate on believing on your accusations.
I had Sheth pegged as null at that point. I even highlighted that he had let Cats of the hook. The difference between you and me is I give him credit for actually doing something. He was the first to call someone out. Big plus. CM has contributed nothing except his insistence on a no-lynch over a mafia lynch
I certainly did not sit back on Day 1. You even mention that yourself. Bullshit indeed. Unlike scum, I don't really care if others thinks someone is town, I need to prove you are mafia. I wrote two text walls, of course I am going to focus on my scum cases. WTF? only scum want to point out the obvious.
+ Show Spoiler +3.AnxiousHippo
Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral. Nothing to comment here. + Show Spoiler +5.Tunkeg
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Cephiro, Cephiro, I know you wanted to speak but damn, Tunkeg has had the best posting yet. Much better than yours.
You even say
” Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points.”
Voting for a lurker is pressuring them to participate. Sure it may have been a safe move, but you can’t say shit since you haven’t even voted yet. You cast doubt on how successful his pressuring will be but don’t offer anything else. In essence you are undermining his methods which you even admit that “He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on”
Please try and explain why a townie would try and discredit the way someone is trying to out scum without offering an alternative? Any effort is good effort and all your “analysis” does is undermine Tunkeg. You have no proof for why he might be scummy other than his aggressiveness but even that you say is because he wants to start discussion. You admit you have nothing on him, so why cast doubt on his methods?
BAD Cephiro! Safe move yes, but why should I not be allowed to say that aloud? You're not any better at this point, having posted far less content than me, waiting for your town-saving newspost. So you can't go aggressive on me for not voting at this point either, unless you admit your play was even worse. I am here also giving my genuine reads, I am not trying to undermine him in any way, I just posted my feeling about his methods. Should I have said bullshit such as "I think what he does is awesome", if I didn't really think so? I gave him a neutral read back then.
I can go aggressive for you not voting because you call him out on his. Again he is actually doing somethinga nd you call him out for a safe play? You had even made that safe play. I did not call anyone out at that point because I was gathering evidence, once I had it I made pretty damn clear who I think is mafia and backed it up with a vote. You on the other hand cast suspicion on people for actually doing more than you have done.
As for your reads, I can't see how a towns person would find someone placing the first vote as a bad thing. Especially when it is clearly to get people active (which you acknowledge). I find it even less plausible that you would place a newbie advocating a no-lynch over someone who takes the initiative to vote first.
+ Show Spoiler +6.Jitsu
Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Good lordy, he was the first person to pressure Cookie about the stupidity of advocating a no-lynch. That is a damn site more than you have done and far and beyond Cookie, but no Cookie is slightly town but Jitsu is null?
BAD Cephiro! He had posted against the no-lynch in general, and called out on Hippo and Cookie in _ONE_ post by this point, which wasn't enough for me to get a solid read on him. If I am unsure, why should I not admit it? I also wanted to make him post more, so I was trying to provoke him with my claim of "Hasn't posted any actual content other than that". Which he then replied he has his reasons for.
Fine, give him a null read, but why give the person he called out for their stupidity as a town read? By simple process of elimination he has to be more town than Cookie.
+ Show Spoiler +7.Xeris
All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.
8.Gretorp
Same as above, neutral. Nothing to see here. + Show Spoiler +9.Gonzaw
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:This is where you sunk your ship. I agree that Gonz is town but put these two quotes together Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here You give the first a slight scum/neutral read and the second a town read. BAD Cephiro! Gonz and Tunkeg had very different playstyle in my opinion. Here you are putting words into my mouth again, which I am finding quote offending at this point, trying to make look worse than what I am. The first was a statement considering taking the first vote, and Tunkeg didn't encourage others to pressure vote at this point even though he did so himself, unlike Gonz who also suggested others to do that. There is a difference between doing something yourself and encouraging others to do it as well. The difference in their playstyle and between keeping the pressure voting to himself/encouraging it to everyone was the main reason I ended up reading Tunkeg as neutral and Gonz as town at this point.
Here are the quotes in full For Tunkeg who gave a null read whilst questioning his methods. In bold is where you seem to be supporting him.
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.
For Gonz who you gave a townie read.
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.
The only difference between Tunk and Gonz is that Gonz suggested others follow suit? I don't get it, in the first post you are saying that being aggressive and putting votes down is not going to be succesful, but then give Gonz more townie credit for suggesting others do it? Contradictory much?
+ Show Spoiler +10.Blurry
Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.
11.Probulous
Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back. Nothing to comment here. + Show Spoiler +12.CatsnHats
Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions! Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote:This says nothing about Cats at all. You say one thing then produce a nice WIFOM to discredit what you just said. You actually say anything about him at all. I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. Whatever man, you are heading for a lynch ## Vote Cephiro I'll admit that I did not analyse CatsnHats in the same way as others, I ended up concentrating too much telling him what he should do in my opinion. This was partly affected by the fact that I still thought he was too wishy-washy even after Sheth's early pressure, and I wanted to make sure that for example Sheth wouldn't get a grip on him, since I had Sheth as slightly scum at this point.
Sorry mate, your noose is tightening.
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An hour before lynch and no-one is here?
Come on people choose your target between AKCT and Cephiro.
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Xeris, AnxiousHippo, Gretorp, Jitsu
Please, change your votes to one of either Cephiro or AKCT. Otherwise we end up with a no-lynch, which we all agree is terrible.
Come on take a stand for town and lynch these scum!
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On January 06 2012 08:10 GreYMisT wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 08:05 Probulous wrote: An hour before lynch and no-one is here?
Come on people choose your target between AKCT and Cephiro. I'm fairly sure there are 2 hours until the deadline.
Fucking timezones :p
Apologies people, you should still be around.
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On January 06 2012 08:07 Liquid`Sheth wrote: I'm here. however I have to leave soon. Probulous sense were the only two active are you willing to go on to AKCT? I'd rather get a lynch then none and we seem to be the only two willing to switch.
I prefer Cephiro but if you are leaving than I guess so.
##vote A Killer Cuppa Tea
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he he oh that timing is so sweet
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Two questions Ceph
Would you vote for AKCT?
From that post you think Sheth, Cats and myself are scum? Is that right? I don't want to put words in your mouth again so please label the three scum for me.
Thanks for coming out guns blazing.
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