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Newbie Mini Mafia II - Page 2

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Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 12 2012 04:55 GMT
#847
EBWOP: I am going to read into Prob and Gonz filters and see what I can glean.
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 12 2012 05:02 GMT
#848
On January 12 2012 10:36 Probulous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 12 2012 10:24 Cephiro wrote:
Nvm, I think I get it. Unless you are one of the remaining scums, if not both of you. If you did what I think you were doing, I don't think that was a good idea. >.> I hope you'll prove me wrong.


It wasn't a good idea because Blurry actually was a medic. Mafia screwed us over from the start and I overthought things. I agree with Cats on Paperscraps. He gave up and then Gonz comes roaring in with his case on Blurry. The fact that Jitsu was suspicious about Gonz also makes Gonz look bad.

Blurry really screwed us by claiming at the most retarded time. The way I see it, if Cats is town then the mafia are Gonz and Paperscraps.

I am going to look into Gonz' s filter and do the same thing he did to Blurry. See who has been talking to and why. Who had he avoided and why did he tunnel him so early. It is not like other people's play was much better.


I didn't give up, I was at school all day. I said so in this Post.

Blurry messed up bad though, he should have kept his mouth quiet. Then either Cats or I would have been lynched and we would still have a chance to block a night kill.

If I would have been killed, then it would have been easy to take out Cats.

If Cats was killed, then town would be in great shape with +1 medic and -1 scum.
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 13 2012 03:06 GMT
#908
I'm not trying to fly under the radar. I go to school from 9am - 7pm Tues/Thurs and 1pm - 10pm Mon/Wed. (PST)

Usually when I post it is when everyone is least active, which is inconvenient, because I can't defend my self right away. I just got home, so I am posting this to confirm. I will provide some analysis and reads in a bit and defend my innocence after I get some food in me.

I am leaning towards Gonz and Cats being mafia at the moment. Something that was said, that really struck out to me was that we shouldn't take any one for granted of being innocent. We all need to question each other and pressure everyone accordingly.

I have a lot of convincing to do on my part, since it seems the majority are against me now on my brief skim through. Man I really wished Prob could have gotten a read on someone that was alive, but then again that would have changed all his previous arguments. Can't dwell on the past now.
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 13 2012 03:36 GMT
#910
On January 13 2012 12:26 bkrow wrote:
He said to gonz "you are scum"

that seems like a pretty solid read ..


Calm down there ace. I just got home and ate food. I will post analysis in a bit.
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 13 2012 07:06 GMT
#911
Alright so we are left with:

bkrow (confirmed town)
Cephiro
Paperscraps
Gonzaw
CatsnHats

@Gonzaw: (Answers to your post in bold.)
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 13 2012 08:48 gonzaw wrote:
Wtf people? It's less than 1 hour and a half before the night ends and nobody's posting shit?
We are at LYLO tomorrow for fucks sake!!




Okay Paperscraps, I found your "read" on Blurry odd as hell.

Here are all the times you mention Blurry:


+ Show Spoiler +
On January 10 2012 09:39 Paperscraps wrote:Blurry Scum

1.
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:
On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.

Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.

My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.


Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you).

So to make it easy

Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not?


Yes I would, and will.

#Vote: Liquid'Sheth

As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it.



Either Blurry is trying to bus his mafia buddy, to alleviate further pressure from himself or has great gut instincts. I am leaning more toward the former, but he did make somewhat of a case about Sheth just pressuring and not weeding out scum. Read through his filter, something just doesn't feel right about him. I am interested in what his response will be.


Okay, so you start right off thinking Blurry is scum. However you justify it by your "leaning more towards the former" on a WIFOM situation, and the "something just doesn't feel right about him" wishy washiness.

I agree that this was all speculation, I will leave out wishy washy remarks in the future.


+ Show Spoiler +
Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy.


Okay, that is a good reason though, which is what I stated earlier.

+ Show Spoiler +
I am still leaning toward scum on Blurry as well.




+ Show Spoiler +
@Prob: Yeah I can agree with all of this. Right now Cats>Blurry, due to the death of Jitsu and re-reading the filters of Jitsu, Cats and Sheth.


Now suddenly you focus on Cats instead of Blurry just because of Jitsu's death and filter.
What made you think Blurry was less scum than Cats? Why didn't you pursue Blurry more?

I was thinking that Cats was much more probable than Blurry first off.
After reading through Blurry's filter, he just seemed more inexperienced and more town.
Probulous also thinking Blurry being town weighed a lot with me, because probulous had good reads and analysis thus far.


+ Show Spoiler +
I still am not quite sure about Blurry, he hasn't really done anything to justify himself as of yet. Also your sudden change of heart about him isn't helping that either, because you are the scummiest read town has at the moment.


"I still am not quite sure about Blurry"?
Didn't you say he was scum before? You even put Blurry in the "Cats>Blurry" scum-o-meter.
You also say he hasn't done anything to justify himself as of yet, and instead of convincing you he's scum, it convinces you that you are not sure? That doesn't make any sense.

I should have made it clear that the general census of the town leaning towards Blurry being innocent was swaying what I was thinking about him. I kept linking Blurry with Sheth. Blurry somewhat called Sheth out early on, but never followed up later. This was probably the main reason that I thought Blurry was scum. Prob and the rest of town convinced me otherwise. Even Cats started to convince me that Blurry was town.

+ Show Spoiler +
4.Basically this all sums up to a redirection or deflection of scrutiny that is on you Cats and Blurry. I am positive that Cats in scum now, because he is scared that I suspect him of it and now gives some pretty trivial/wrong accusations against me. Sounds like he is getting desperate. This also further makes Blurry look bad.

All of a sudden Blurry is clean in your eyes? or maybe he is your scum buddy! I am guessing that latter. I bet this was your plan for the whole day to vote up Blurry, then have some sudden revelation and vote up a townie who isn't even responsible for half of his time in the game yet.


Now instead of "not being sure about Blurry" you still think he's scummy. But you don't outright say it.
You say "this also further makes Blurry look bad" and "maybe he is your scumbuddy! I am guessing that latter"
You are implying that if Cats is scum, then Blurry may be too. You are not saying Blurry is scum, you are just casting suspicion on him by your tunneling of Cats

Yeah, now I was linking Blurry with Cats. Cats was pushing for Blurry to be lynched then switched to me, which made me think that it was some sort of trick. I was wrong on this. Noob mistake on my part.

+ Show Spoiler +
Blurry slightly scummy(this depending on the current lynch of Cats). Cats strong scum read. That leaves me as well, but I don't really know how the majority read me yet.

Blurry voting up Cats could be his redemption though.


So Blurry voting up Cats is his redemption?
What?

I was thinking that Cats is mafia, so if Blurry voted up Cats then that would mean that Blurry would indeed be town.

+ Show Spoiler +
As for your analysis of Blurry:

I can actually agree with this. I wish he would post more. He has you pegged as scum, so that makes him a little less noob though, haha.

3. Blurry does call out Sheth. I skipped over that because he does it in a shy way though and never follows through with analysis.



"He has you pegged as scum, so that makes him a little less noob though, haha."

What?

So you just forget about Blurry being scum because of that?

Not just because of that, but also in general the town was swaying more towards Blurry being town. Blurry made a decent case against Cats. I didn't forget about Blurry being scum, but rather Blurry was lower on my list. I was thinking Cats would be a safer bet.

+ Show Spoiler +
Lynching Cats or Xeris is win-win for me.


And here you never mention Blurry either, even though you had him as "scum" for a long time.
You basicly forget about him, even though he did almost nothing, and there was a case and pressure against him.

And what was that constant change of opinion on Blurry?

First you thought he was scum. Then you weren't sure. Then you thought he was Cat's scumbuddy, but then stopped thinking he was scum. And you gave almost no reason for these change of opinions.



Also, if you thought Blurry was scum, why did you ignore my case against him?
This I find odd as hell. It looks like you wanted to make Blurry suspicious but didn't want to actually make a case or anything against him on your own, nor you wanted to sheep other people's cases either.
If you thought he was scum, then surely you must have paid attention to my case, but you never mentioned it in the slightest

The constant change of opinions is due to getting caught up with the game, re-reading peoples filters and the general feeling of the town. Thinking he was Cats' scum buddy, was just hypothetical. I didn't ignore your case against Blurry. I just didn't find it very strong. I think the fact that Sheth and Blurry didn't talk much was due to Blurry being inexperienced plain and simple.

I don't know why I have to mention other peoples arguments against people, when I make my own. That is unreasonable.



Also:

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 12 2012 13:54 Paperscraps wrote:
Just got back from school. Wow oh wow at what happened. Dang I wish Blurry didn't make a huge blunder like that. Town is in bad shape.

Seems like Cats and Prob or Gonz are mafia. Will be interesting to see who they target tonight.

If Prob dies, then it is Cats and Gonz

If Gonz dies, then it is Cats and Prob

If I die, which I won't think will happen due to people being suspicious of me, then I don't know who the last mafia is.



What is this?

You just assume both Cephiro and BK are town? And you don't give any reasons for it?

It is not so much that I am assuming people are town, but rather that I thought Cats and you were more probable to be scum than others at the time in such a situation.


[image loading]


I am more and more convinced now that Gonzaw is mafia. His general hostility in the game doesn't help him in the slightest.

Gonzaw wrote:
So, you made a great analysis of why a player is town.


Is this game about finding townies? No.
I already said this to Cephiro, our priority is not finding townies.
Your priority is not posting walls of text of who you find townie.

Your priority is finding scum.
Now, apparently you forgot about that part.


Pretty harsh thing to say. Making a case for someone being town is just as effective as making a case for someone being scum. Scum are the people that don't want others to know who town are.

Gonzaw:+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 08:13 CookieMaker wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 07:58 AnxiousHippo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 04 2012 18:07 CookieMaker wrote:
On January 04 2012 14:22 Probulous wrote:
With that I am leaving till tomorrow. See you guys at about 08:00 KST tomorrow.

Jab and dodge eh? I like your style.

I'd actually also like his opinion. At the moment I am very content with the way the town is developing. There is clearly a trust developing among several players who employ similar town-favored tactics.

Also, I enjoy watching Sheth stir the pot, but he's kinda leaving the lid off without giving it a chance to boil. I'm interested to see what our current inactives have to say; I think even the majority of the Nords have already piped up.

And now I sleep in the hopes that during the night little elves will come and whisper in the ears of our inactives, and whence they rise an impulse stronger than coffee shall empower their mouse cursors to look at their TeamLiquid PM's and realize that they should be posting in this thread about their regret at not having posted sooner. Tunkeg I'm giving you some leeway because of the timezone comment but I swear to Odin....

Thought of some cute food for thought:

Surely rotten eggs
will indeed be the those whom first
crack in the steamer


This is one of the worst posts so far. Cookiemaker points out that Probulous leaves right after making accusations, and later says that he's about to go to sleep too. He also talks vaguely about how people are trusting eachother but so far it's only been cephiro and catsnhats, there's barely any trust from everyone else.

He then uses a fancy metaphor which always annoys me, like they're trying to sound better.

Then he posts some more useless metaphorical stuff saying he wants people to be a bit more active. and then a poem.

cookiemaker clarify what players seem to be trusting eachother
sheth tell us what posts are bothering you
Also, where did blurry go?





@AH The players who I saw as "trusting" each other were Sheth, Probu, and Gonz, who seemed to be employing the similar tactic of applying "harmless" pressure to see what the responses would be. I was going to just come out and say it, but I didn't want to players under fire to be let off that easy, so instead I wrote the cute little Haiku
Now really going for food, stay tuned for more action.



What?
If I pressure people the same way as another player, I trust him? I don't think that makes much sense.

Also, I don't really "trust" people in mafia games. I either think they are town, scum, or I'm indecisive.
Even if they are town, I may still not trust them. For instance, I may not trust their reads.
I believe Probu to be town for instance (for now, he's been absent for some time and I find that worrysome), but even if that's the case I don't really trust him for now. If he finds some scum, then maybe I will.


Also, you never explained that "I will vote for the one that has less votes" part, it seems you are trying to ignore that we pointed it out.

I think you are scum bro.


Gonzaw then proceeds to vote up CM. He doesn't provide any real evidence against CM.

On January 06 2012 05:44 gonzaw wrote:
Wut?

My vote is on Cookie/Tea, and it will stay the same for now, at least until Tea responds back.
I thought Cookie was scum, and Tea isn't doing anything to change my mind.


Gonzaws sticks with his vendetta against CM(AKCT), with no real evidence.

Gonzaw:+ Show Spoiler +
Blurry:
I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us.


Isn't this kind of obvious?
Of course if a townie is RBed he should claim, why did you feel the need to state so?


Gonzaw is trying to cast suspicion on to Blurry. He knows that the mafia isn't going to use their role blocker, so that the town is at a disadvantage. This very reasoning lead us to the mis-lynch of Blurry. Oh the irony

On January 06 2012 11:55 gonzaw wrote:
EBWOP:

Show nested quote +
On January 06 2012 11:32 CatsnHats wrote:
Ok guys. I don't really want to do this, but I'm going to since it really is the best for the town. I think all of you should vote to lynch me on D2. I've come to realize that I am a terrible player of this game, especially as a townie (with no role I might add!). I should have found the newbie forum or got a better idea of this game before i signed up to play it. My first few posts I made before I realized the psychological and analytical implications of this game handicapped me and I've been playing the defensive ever since. After the bad start I put myself in, my goal was to make it past D1, which I did, so I'm fine with getting lynched if it's agreeable amongst everyone (I'm sure the scum will agree). All I have really done is distract you all from the real the scum with my terrible play, and that's not fair to the town. I also admit, I haven't added much in the way of original analysis because I was afraid that it would put me in even more hot water. The obviously wasn't the right play. Maybe you all can get D2 sped up if the mods allow it so anymore scumhunting time isn't wasted.

This probably isn't the correct time to do it since it's N1, but for the record.
##Vote: CatsnHats

For the record: in light of CM/Tea turning up green, I think it takes some heat of you Ceph. You (and the rest of the town) should spend your time looking into Xeris and Gretorp (because of questionable/contradictory posting when not lurking) and pressuring AnxiousHippo, a player who has gone unnoticed to others because of all of the accusations going around. He's made filler posts, keeps making excuses for not reading through everything, and throws out a placeholder vote for Xeris and a very bandwagon vote for CookieMaker/Tea. Quoted below:

On January 06 2012 08:36 AnxiousHippo wrote:
I haven't been able to go through everything as well as I hoped but we need a lynch. There was a lot of discussion on Cephiro but I haven't been able to read through it thoroughly enough so I'm going for Tea
##Unvote: Xeris
##Vote: A Killer Cuppa Tea



....what?



Okay, first things first: this is a GAME

Even if you say you "suck" at it and make "town" pay or something, try and get better at it.
Make it like a New Year's Resolution: I'll be good at TL mafia.

You are actually making it worse for us this way.
You will make us waste all of D2 because you want us to lynch you there.
If you are town, we will not find any scum because of it.

If you are town, and you act "scummy" and such, it would be better to misslynch you if you fight and defend yourself than lynch you just because you are a burden or something. In the first case we can get more info actually.
If you are scum, then maybe you just don't like being under so much pressure, so you acted like you "surrendered", and maybe even ask for a replacement because you are coming under too much fire.

Whatever the case (if you are town or scum)., you are not doing us any favour, and you are not doing any favours to yourself, so regain yourself goddammit!


This is the same thing Sheth did. He gave a pep talk to Cats to not throw the game.

Gonzaw:
My conclusion is that Blurry's reasons for voting Cookie are shit, because he regurgitated what other people said.


Gonzaw claims that Blurry's reasons for voting up CM(AKCT) are bad.

Gonzaw:
Okay, there are 2 basic reasons for voting Tea (or AKCT, whatever):

1-For previous reasons of certain players
2-A bandwagon vote to avoid a no-lynch.

Players in the 1st category would include:
Me, Tunkmeg, Blurry
Players in the 2nd category would include:
CatsHats, Sheth, Prob, Jitsu, Cephiro, Hippo


Yet, Gonzaw claims that Blurry's reason were part of the reasons why he voted up CM(AKCT).
Sounds like a contradiction to me.

On January 08 2012 10:31 gonzaw wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2012 10:19 Probulous wrote:
On January 08 2012 05:46 gonzaw wrote:
On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.

Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.

My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.


This is the biggest pile of WIFOM I've ever seen in my life.

You still haven't responded to me, so as soon as you finish "re-reading their posts thoroughly", please post your findings AND respond to my post.




I'll wait to see Sheth's response and how he reacts to make my read, although Prob's case makes sense.

On January 07 2012 16:40 Probulous wrote:
To the rest of the town, please can I have your thoughts on Sheth and Cephiro? I am re-reading the thread over and over again and re-evaluating my positions on people.



Null read on Sheth (until now at least), and Town read on Cephiro.


Also people, what do we do regarding Xeris/Gretorp? Just wait?


Gonz man, what the hell is this shit? You call others out for wishy-washy play but then post this contortion. You think my case makes sense but Sheth's response will tell you more? If the case is solid, nothing Sheth says should change your mind. He can always cast doubt on what I have written.

I could forgive you for that, Ceph's defense for example shows what happens when a townie gets a case brought against him. But what is the null read (until now at least) Is he null or not? You either are waiting for more info (null case) or you think he is mafia (until now case). How can you have both positions in the same sentence?

Would you be willing to lynch Sheth?



??

I had a null read on him until you posted your case, in which case I now have a scum read on him.
You posted your case on him after you posed that question, so my answer was about what I thought of him at that point in time.

I don't get how that could be misinterpreted.



And yes, Sheth hasn't really been accused until now, his response can make us change our minds or make us more assured if he's scum. And I think we can notice if he's trying to "cast doubt" on what you've written.

However I won't be around to see it.


I'm going out now, and tomorrow as soon as I wake up I'll be going out of town for like 1-2 days, so I won't be around until that time.

I hope I get back before it's too late on Day 3 though.



So fuck Sheth, I was waiting for his response, but I need to make a placeholder vote, and the case against him is the best we have at the moment IMO, considering Blurry is ignoring me and Xeris just disappeared off the face of the Earth.


##Vote: Liquid`Sheth


Then, Gonzaw sheeps/bandwagons(whatever you want to call it) with Prob in the lynching of Sheth. He doesn't provide any analysis of Sheth and says he had a null reason of him up until this point. Of course we know now that Prob knew for a fact that Sheth was mafia, but at the time no one knew this. Then he just disappears and leaves his scum buddy to die, so he doesn't have to provide any reasoning to his vote.

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 11 2012 07:43 gonzaw wrote:
Omg, this is so awesome!

Not only was Xeris inactive throughout the whole game, but his replacement is too!


/sarcasm

For fucks sake, you know what's actually annoying me? That if kronhort survives until LYLO (if we get there), then we are absolutely fucked. Deciding if he's scum or not is basicly the same as tossing a coin in the air.


+ Show Spoiler +
On January 10 2012 11:49 Probulous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 10 2012 11:36 gonzaw wrote:
FUUUUUUUUUU...


Sorry guys, I don't have time, I'm almost on the hour mark and I've barely even finished reading the thread.

I'll respond as I see fit though.

Also, tomorrow I'll be back earlier (I'll go to the same cyber, for more time if I can), so I'll address everything else there.

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote:
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On January 10 2012 07:30 Jitsu wrote:
On January 10 2012 06:46 Probulous wrote:
How cursed are we?

It has been 20 hours since replacement and kronhjort hasn't posted and all that Paperscraps has posted is a couple of welcome lines and
"I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow."


@Ceph, I am still waiting on your reads.

@Jitsu I am assuming you are sticking with Cats and Blurry?


Definitely staying with Cats right now. I think that whole mass-shenanigans at the end of last night was to try to buy Cats some towncred. Sheth telling Cats to just vote switch to him? And Cats apologizing for doing it? Come on guys. Clearly an act. I'm definitely not buying it. After I pressured Sheth, I went back and read the interactions between them. It's just screaming at me. What was he willing to contribute? He was adamant in not voting for Sheth until the very end, when Sheth told him to vote for him in the post.

As for Blurry; I don't think so. I've read through his filter again (an astounding one page!!) just now and, while not very enlightening and helpful, hasn't really acted anti-town. I said that post last night because I was under the impression that was just bandwagon lynching, but I think it's just newbie play. That being said - he needs to post. He's still lurking, he's just also voting.

Going over filters now. I would like to hear from the new lurkers, especially Hippo's replacement (whoever he is).


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On January 10 2012 09:57 Jitsu wrote:
I was actually a little bit curious about Gonz's posts. Check his filter.


I think Jitsu was on to something here. He was adamant that Cats was scum and had changed his position on Blurry. If we assume he was sure Cats was scum and believed Blurry is town that leaves one scum in the following list
  • Gonzaw
  • AnxiousHippo/Bkrow
  • Gretorp/Paper
  • Xeris/kronhjort


Here is what he had to say about Xeris and Gretorp
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On January 10 2012 07:41 Jitsu wrote:
At this point, I think we can call Xeris/Gretorp new players - the previous lack of effort certainly wasn't able to give me enough information to determine their role, except MAYBE Gretorp.

Maybe.

That being said, I really hope that these guys stop lurking.


A solid null read and his thoughts on Bkrow amounted to
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On January 10 2012 07:56 Jitsu wrote:
Bkrow, i'd like to see some posts in you're name. Add to the discussion. What do you think of Cats right now? you must have read the majority of the thread by now. What are some of you're scum reads?


Hardly suspicion. So what does this mean? It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats.

WIFOM alert, which is more likely?

Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him.

Or

Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz?

Or

We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time?

Bk, you are in that list and have at least been posting so, what do you make of this?




...WTF is this WIFOM shit?


Yes that's a waste of time unless you are backing it up with analysis.



And now I was suspicious for wanting to take the WIFOM out of the way early so it doesn't clog up the thread later, sheez...



+ Show Spoiler +
On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote:@Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me.



What about the "I'm going away from town" did you not get?

Unexpected things IRL happen, I can't choose not to do them.

I will come back tomorrow at around 6pm GMT or something, and around 1am GMT of the next day I'll be home so I can pay full attention to this game again.

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 09 2012 08:48 Cephiro wrote:
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On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.

Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.

My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.


I am yet not sure what to think of you, but at least you are right in one thing whether you are a townie, or mafia trying to gain town-cred.

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On January 07 2012 21:11 Probulous wrote:
The only issue I had post his defense was his vote reason (a placeholder vote). He could have voted for one of his scum-reads but he chose to follow the crowd. This keeps him on my watch list.

As for Sheth, I am almost certain he is scum. I have read and re-read the thread over and over and there are some things I cannot reconcile. His insistent early support for Xeris over Gretorp being the first that springs to mind. I am putting together my case on him but want people to take a good look and tell me why he isn't mafia.

Full case coming soonish!


I'll admit I maybe should have done that, but I didn't want to give the mafia a chance to no-lynch, nor give someone the impression that I was trying to jack the vote towards a no-lynch (pro-mafia play). But today, we lynch scum. Because we're going to lynch Sheth.

Once I read the bolded, I knew we were going in the right direction today. Finally more people would realize the killer that hided behind the manner.

And once I saw Probu's case of the D2 on Sheth, especially considering he is probably the strongest town read for many. (Which no-one should take for granted!), I got the feeling that today is the day the first scum falls.

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On January 08 2012 10:31 gonzaw wrote:
??

I had a null read on him until you posted your case, in which case I now have a scum read on him.
You posted your case on him after you posed that question, so my answer was about what I thought of him at that point in time.

I don't get how that could be misinterpreted.

And yes, Sheth hasn't really been accused until now, his response can make us change our minds or make us more assured if he's scum. And I think we can notice if he's trying to "cast doubt" on what you've written.

However I won't be around to see it.

I'm going out now, and tomorrow as soon as I wake up I'll be going out of town for like 1-2 days, so I won't be around until that time.

I hope I get back before it's too late on Day 3 though.

So fuck Sheth, I was waiting for his response, but I need to make a placeholder vote, and the case against him is the best we have at the moment IMO, considering Blurry is ignoring me and Xeris just disappeared off the face of the Earth.

##Vote: Liquid`Sheth


This is a very weird post for me. You have been trying so hard to provide content and analysis yourself earlier, but now you went from a null read to scum read just because of Probu's post? I admit that Probu posts good and convincing cases, but please people, think for yourselves too! If he's the one controlling the game with his analysis with everyone just jumping on the bandwagon, in the case he is mafia we're fucked. I am not saying he is, I got a town-read on him myself at the moment, but don't take it for granted!

Anyway, this post made me more curious, I will have to read through gonzaw's filter again soon.

Show nested quote +
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
You keep him in your scum list, but you don't keep pressuring him. You just act meaner to a guy who is acting newb. This is the sort of non-stop pressure that almost caused him to try and "lynch" himself. I still don't think Cats is mafia based on his posts and what not. However I obviously want to keep pressure on him. Thats what I've been saying this whole time, but now I'm stuck responding to these posts.


From your response to Probu's analysis about you.
We're not acting extra-mean to anyone. Could you provide some back-up for your claims of Cats being townie? All you say is the bolded, which is basically nothing. His posts and what not? But you obviously want to keep pressure on him, when you just said that sort of non-stop pressure almost made a townie suicide? Contradictory. Protection of scumbuddy, failed.

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Liquid`Sheth wrote:
This is horrible logic. Your logic has just been way off recently. Xeris' post just seemed townie at the time. Gretorps did as well, and I've explained about Xeris too much. And if you'd known Xeris in RL you'd understand. I really wish Gretorp would come on and explain this sometime, but sense hes apparently always afk your just bringing up a point I can't verify. I don't like how your taking something that I can bring to town (my knowledge of both of them in Real life) and trying to point it out as invalid. You think my one post of defending Xeris makes him mafia if I am? You've just created a lot of text here again, that doesn't say anything.
+
Yes its different, but all knowledge should be used? Again, why would you not want me to bring these things up? If you've known someone for 10 years both ONLINE AND OFFLINE, HOW IN THE WORLD would I not have a good read on them.


No matter how well you know them, I doubt you can know if they are mafia or town by 3-4 pretty much oneliner posts about promising more. Or then you're one heck of a mindreader. I still don't get why you are protecting them so hard.

Admittingly it's impossible to make a case on them on anything else than lurking, and if they are townies then they are making the game considerably harder for us :/ Hopefully we'll get replacements soon.

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Liquid`Sheth wrote:
In a lot of the games I've played previously a DT for a mafia is a good trade. I think its a good trade here as well if they have a few people who are confirmed townies. You suggest here that DT can find mafia on his own then post his reads just like the rest of us. If the DT has 2 mafia he should for sure just come out and say it I think. So more just wrong information...


A DT for a mafia is a good trade? Certainly not this early in the game. How can you be sure someone is DT if another person would counterclaim? You were fishing for blue roles earlier, are you afraid of the chance a medic could block your night-kills?

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On January 08 2012 11:23 CatsnHats wrote:
Cephiro really impressed me with the way he defended himself against your analysis. His statistics post people got angry at him for isn't really that big of a deal for me since it was his first post and it's his first game of forum mafia. Ceph was also the first the post a write-up on all the town, although you picked it apart later. I still think that counts for something. He called out Sheth in his defense post for Sheth's wishy washy play, and later pressured me on my terrible play up to that point. His analysis was the reason I made the martyr post. There was no real way for me to defend my play up to the point, and seeing it written up that way I knew I was distracting from catching scum. His analysis is very good, and I hope he gets back from his sports tournament soon because he's an asset to this town. Cephiro is definitely a town read for me.

Sheth endeared himself in my eyes for defending my newb-play in the beginning, and even after my martyr post he still had a town read for me. I'm starting to think that's because he KNOWS I'm town though. Prob's and Jitsu's analysis has definitely cast a black cloud on the nicest guy in esports. He has ghosted on Prob's analysis of Cephiro, basically promising analysis in the morning on someone's that bothered him. Prob posts his Ceph analysis, and then Sheth's like "oh yeah we was mine too." Just seems like he was waiting for someone to post original content so he can ghost it. And the way he has handled the Xeris situation is shady as well.

Sheth is our best case so far, but I'm really holding out hope (albeit a faint one) that Xeris, Gretorp, or AH will talk before the lynch. I will at least do this:
##Unvote: CatsnHats
I'm not going anywhere unless the town or mafia decides it.


At this point you seem fairly suspicious of Sheth. Why do you suddenly find him so town? You keep changing your minds on everyone, I just don't understand what the hell is going on in your head. Either you are the most confused player ever, or then you're clever mafia trying to get back in by confusing everyone and trying to get on the right bandwagons in time. I suspect the latter.

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On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote:
@Prob yeah I do think they are (Blurry too) better scum targets than Sheth. I think we are letting the terrible activity level of half this town make us point the finger at each other.

@Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me.

On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote:

Also, your crazy to not think that there is no relation between who you analyse and find scummy and whether or not you are scum. If the person we follow along with the most picks 3 town in a row, theres a solid chance hes mafia. If the person we follow kills 3 mafia in a row, theres a solid chance hes town. I don't know how you can't agree with that.


@Everyone The phrase I bolded is really interesting to me. It seems like the town (including myself) has followed Probulous without much question. He has posted so much many long posts so often that we have written him off as town without thought and reanalysis. Do you think that Probulous is getting by without enough criticism? He's not a D2 lynch target by any means, but do you think that is true? This is NOT FOS, I'm just asking a question.


The lurkers are better targets in your opinion. I admit it's certainly not pro-town play, but considering they are about to get modkilled or replaced, why would you not try to pick out the active scum? Even if they both would be mafia (Which I find very unlikely, and quite sure that's not the case), there would be still one scum remaining among the active players. Go and find that one!

Then you talk about how people ghost Probu's analysis, even YOURSELF. But then you are getting suspicious on Gonzaw for doing the same. Do you have enough fingers to point in all those directions? I sure don't.

Then you are "not suspecting Probu", but curious about if people are letting him by too easily. Sure, you can ask about it from others, but make a case on it yourself if you think that's what happening. I've seen at least me and Sheth critizise his analysis (admittingly, we were the ones being accused).

Show nested quote +
On January 08 2012 12:44 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I've been too distracted by all of this pressure on me that I havn't done another full write up on Cephiro.


That's no excuse, even to this point I haven't seen but smaller analysis from you, not a single "full write-up". Too distracted by all the pressure on you? That sure didn't prevent me from trying to catch scum when I was under pressure, even though admittingly delaying it a bit.

Post 3. More coming up.



For fucks sake.


I'm away, I HAD to make a placeholder vote, what the fuck do you want me to do?




I can't fucking believe I'm "suspicious" or something because of some shitty WIFOM from Jitsu's death and because I went inactive.

IF YOU WANT TO MAKE A CASE AGAINST ME READ MY FILTER AND DO IT GODDAMMIT!!!!!
I won't stand for this WIFOM shit, not at this point of the game.


+ Show Spoiler +
On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:
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On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:
On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.

Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.

My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.


Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you).

So to make it easy

Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not?


Yes I would, and will.

#Vote: Liquid'Sheth

As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it.




Wtf is this?


So you won't even attempt to respond to my posts?

You say you are going by "your gut"?

Wtf?

Also, I'll reread that "I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start" thing tomorrow when I check everybody's filter.
I'll check the Cat situation too.


Also, (maybe I'm late to this but whatever) everybody saying Blurry is town because he bussed Sheth "too early" or something is a fucking useless WIFOMist.

Sheth's flip doesn't mean Blurry is town, doesn't mean I'm town, and doesn't mean Prob is town.


Calm down matey.

The only reason people were getting suspicious is because of Jitsu's post. I stand by my read on you based on a few things. The most obvious being you are aggressive and have called people on their shit.

Contrary to what others might think, your argument with Tunk makes you look more town than mafia. I see no reason for mafia to call attention to their hit right before the day post. It is just stupidly and unnecessarily putting themselves in the spotlight.

As for my WIFOM, I think it is pretty clear that there is no roleblocker, that is all I wanted to gain from it. No need to get all antsy about it. The WIFOM about you was to get people's thoughts on what is more likely. Clearly Cats is far more scummy than you, that is what I was trying to point out.

I stand by my Blurry read. You have to make up your mind on limited information, Blurry looks a lot less scummy than Cats. He hasn't said or done much but what he has looks like a newbie town in my eyes. You don't agree, why? You can justify what he has done from both a mafia or town POV, but one is more likely than the other given the reads you have on other people and how they flipped. I don't see how Blurry bussing Sheth so early is more likely than him just being a sheeping town.

Finally, anyone with half a brain knew you were away. You had a legitimate reason to put a placeholder vote down, and you placed it on a scum. You had been pushing Cats all game long, as mafia it would have been easier for you to just vote Cats as a placeholder and try to split the vote. In the same manner as Blurry, I think your early vote stands in your favour.



*sigh* yeah, I kind of got a little bit carried away there.


+ Show Spoiler +
On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:
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On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:
On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.

Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.

My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.


Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you).

So to make it easy

Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not?


Yes I would, and will.

#Vote: Liquid'Sheth

As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it.


+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:

2: Sheth
Theres one post by him that caught my attention:

Show nested quote +
Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read


This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum.

Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell.
.




+ Show Spoiler +
On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.

Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.

My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.




These were the only 2 times you ever mentioned Sheth.
You even thought he was more likely town than scum the first time, that's a blatant contradiction of "I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start".

So can you tell me wtf this is?
You should be lynched just by this alone, it's a blatant lie.



And now you are still emulating other people's formatting. Although I'm confused now, I don't know if you were making fun of Prob there or not.
I also don't like your "I'm playing from my gut" attitude, I don't like your "I'll emulate other players" attitude either. These make it so easy for you to justify bandwagoning, sheeping, and whatever the hell you want if you are scum, which is what I think you are doing.


I also won't dwell into the "it was early to bus him, maybe not" WIFOM. Sheth had already a static vote on him (mine), and 2 players already were intent on lynching him (Prob, Cephiro), that's half the votes needed for a lynch.
You don't need more than half a brain to see that he was a very likely lynch candidate by then, so whatever WIFOM regarding that is useless.

I also don't get what "town" thing he did by now.

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 10 2012 12:11 Blurry wrote:
I will say this to those that may claim that I have done a similar thing (which I have). I am, as Probulous so eloquently pointed out, a blatant sheep. I go where the grasses are the greenest and if someone has a good argument I believe them


W...T...F?

You know what does in fact make me more suspicious? The actual fact that Sheth and Blurry barely talked to each other at all

This is the only time one of them talked to the other one directly in early game:

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 12:22 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:
About me being inactive: Sorry,I've been out all day since I'm on vacation in Montreal, and while it says I'm from Switzerland I recently moved to USA (EST) and have neglected to change my profile because I'm a little bit homesick+lazy.

Anyways: back to the game,

1: Cookiemaker
AnxiousHippo raised a very good point about Cookiemakers most recent post in his stating that trust has been developing amongst certain townies without providing examples. There was no reason for him to say this other than to try and fluff up his posts. Right now he seems scummy to me.

2: Sheth
Theres one post by him that caught my attention:

Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read


This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum.

Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell.

3: AnxiousHippo

Cites his inexperience as a way out of having to provide much analysis but also hasn't said anything too scummy. I'm feeling neutral.

4: Cephiro

Provided a lot of good points and has contributed a good deal to the discussion. I don't think think Mafia would be leading the discussion like he has been, especially at this level. Definitely leaning towards town on him.

5: Tunkeg

Tries to get everybody to contribute which I like. Is very clear in his stance which is another good thing. Leaning towards town on him.

6: Jitsu

I'm getting a town vibe from him as well as he asked for someones opinion on himself. This could however be a clever mafia play to try and discover where the holes in his play are. Leaning towards town as he has been pressuring people to contribute.


I said this because in the last game we played together I was scum and he was town. Thats why its worded that way. Its just a claim that he has recent experience with me and I have with him.





Now, after Sheth was pressured to being lynched, he posts this:

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 09 2012 05:29 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Just going to post my thoughts on the others, as I am going to go watch Steelers v Broncos at a friends house soon, and I had some things come up today I didn't expect.

7. Probulous -- Townie at the start. Sooo townie at the start. Has recently started making a few logical mistakes. (Both against myself and Cephiro). Implying that Cephiro is a confirmed townie has me looking at you so much right now, but as of now my brain can't make sense of you. Null

8. Blurry -- Havn't filtered you in depth yet, but can get into basics.

This post
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:
About me being inactive: Sorry,I've been out all day since I'm on vacation in Montreal, and while it says I'm from Switzerland I recently moved to USA (EST) and have neglected to change my profile because I'm a little bit homesick+lazy.

Anyways: back to the game,

1: Cookiemaker
AnxiousHippo raised a very good point about Cookiemakers most recent post in his stating that trust has been developing amongst certain townies without providing examples. There was no reason for him to say this other than to try and fluff up his posts. Right now he seems scummy to me.

2: Sheth
Theres one post by him that caught my attention:

Show nested quote +
Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read


This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum.

Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell.

3: AnxiousHippo

Cites his inexperience as a way out of having to provide much analysis but also hasn't said anything too scummy. I'm feeling neutral.

4: Cephiro

Provided a lot of good points and has contributed a good deal to the discussion. I don't think think Mafia would be leading the discussion like he has been, especially at this level. Definitely leaning towards town on him.

5: Tunkeg

Tries to get everybody to contribute which I like. Is very clear in his stance which is another good thing. Leaning towards town on him.

6: Jitsu

I'm getting a town vibe from him as well as he asked for someones opinion on himself. This could however be a clever mafia play to try and discover where the holes in his play are. Leaning towards town as he has been pressuring people to contribute.


Just shows that you havn't put much time into the game at this point.

You proceed to say something here + Show Spoiler +
On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.

Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.

My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.



You assume that mafia targeted Tunkeg for a completely different reason then I believe. You believe its because of his reads on people such as myself / gonzaw and cephiro. You feel like thats why it was him instead of Probulous. I think its just because up to this point Probulous was the most "town" feeling and mafia was worried there was a medic involved.

Then you post another bad post here

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:
On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.

Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.

My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.


Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you).

So to make it easy

Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not?


Yes I would, and will.

#Vote: Liquid'Sheth

As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it.


Whats up with this? Can you explain what your "gut" is and what its saying. As I think someone already brought up (Jitsu?) is that if you can't explain it in reasoning then its probably not a good reason. You then say "If I don't have evidence to back up my feelings there is no point in posting it". Regarding evidence against me. So you don't have any evidence and just a gut feeling on me and your willing to vote so quickly on this. Just this here should have everyone worried. Aren't you finding it suspicious that these lurkers are coming out of no where and willing to just throw their votes onto me because of a gut feeling?

Blurry :From what I can see, Leaning Mafia strongly.

9. Gonzaw -- I don't have time to re-read all of your posts. I will do you and Probulous together hopefuly tonight before the end of the day and if I don't, well I'm sure others will. Based on just what I've seen of your posting you seemed like you were posting a lot of fluf and not really taking too many sides. Then you post a "Placeholder" vote on me even though your not convinced. You don't even wait on me to argue my side at all. You and Blurry seem to both be doing this to me. I'm not sure if this is a coincidence, that you both just have to go and blindly will kill me off, but its so bad. Why are you voting for me if you aren't convinced I'm scum. Just from what I've seen I'll say Town-Scum, but I really need to re-filter you more indepth, so this is it for now.

Everyone putting your votes on me, please look into Cephiro, Blurry and Cats/Gonzaw . Those are my four scummiest reads, without knowing more about Xeris/Gretorp.



Blurry doesn't even respond to him. Seems like a planned bus to me, just a way for Blurry to gain town cred once Sheth flips.
And don't come and tell me this is WIFOM shit or something, if you guys believe Cats is scum too then this has to happen too.

In the UG games, there's one thing I do to find scum.
I see which players don't even talk to each other when not pressured to.
I don't mean talk as in just quoting and saying uninteresting filler stuff. I also don't mean mentioning each other, whether to make them suspicious or defend themselves. I mean talk as in arguing with each other, pressuring each other, etc.
I think this happened in the previous Newbie game too.

Hell, there's a UG game where I found the entire scum team just by doing this, without any other analysis.
I'm pretty convinced that works, even more considerably in a newbie game.

It is WIFOM, but shit, it's WIFOM that works, just like the ones in the guides all over this place. If you don't think this holds, then there needs to be other highly incriminating/saving evidence towards it..



##Vote: Blurry



Fuck, I'm already like 2 hours reading the thread, responding and shit.

Also, I don't like this Cat bandwagon. It just seems so easy to lynch him.
But I'll give my thoughts on that when I come home, I'm way in a hurry right now



Gonzaw gets angry that Cehpiro called him out for him voting up Sheth with no analysis, yet Gonzaw rebukes other players for doing the same thing. Gonzaw responds harshly saying that people shouldn't be suspicious of him just, because of some WIFOM Jitsu made.

Gonzaw votes up Blurry for using his gut and WIFOM. Nothing substantial. Contradiction again.

He also says he doesn't like the Cats bandwagon. Interesting thing to say in the least.
+ Show Spoiler +

On January 11 2012 14:32 gonzaw wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 11 2012 14:01 Probulous wrote:
Gonz, reading your case all you have proven is that his play is bad. I highly doubt he would create such a sophisticated plan to make a fluffy case against Sheth and then use that as evidence for towniness if he had to bus Sheth.



Why would you assume that?

How is it even a "sophisticated plan"?

Shit, let's recap the "sophisticated plan":
1)Make a wishy-washy read on one of his scumbuddies
2)When his scumbuddy has a chance to be lynched, bus him
3)As for the reasons for doing it, just say that your previous wishy-washy read was a suspicion on him

(1) Isn't even part of any "plan", it's just a regular scum behaviour of "not being sure" about your scumbuddies, in case you need to bus or defend them later on, and so you don't have to pressure them, talk to them, or have anything to do with them in the thread
(2)Seems pretty straightforward, I don't need to explain to you why scum would bus each other when one has the chance of being lynched, right?
(3)If this is "sophisticated" I'll eat my own ass. It's the easiest way for him to not make an effort in thinking up reasons to bus him. Actually it's stupid too, since eventually someone is bound to reread that and search for that "suspicion from the start" and figure out it's a bunch of fluff.


Show nested quote +
Like I said where is the scum motivation. Tell me a story :p


.....what?
You want me to "tell you a story"?

Do I have to make wild speculations about "what they may have thought" or some shit?

What's the point? I am not here to entertain you guys. I won't start my posts with cute images, or format my posts like a book or something, or "tell stories" or whatever you mean. If I do that I waste time doing something unnecessary.



Also, what do you mean "where's the scum motivation"?
Isn't "be wishy washy about your scumbuddy so you don't pay attention to him, then bus him to gain town cred" enough?
Isn't all that sheeping and regurgitation to lynch a townie (cookie/tea) without actually making an effort enough?
Isn't all that "I'll emulate how other players post", and "I'm following my gut" to strip away any responsability and pressure from him enough?



Show nested quote +
Your best point to date has been the lack of communication between them. Expand on that for me. Thanks mate, I appreciate your work!




I think I expanded enough.
I already pointed out almost all communication between them (I may have left some bussing from Sheth out though, but all of that can be generalised with the single post I showed).
So, what do I have to "expand"? Why can't you do that on your own?


Sorry for the aggresiveness, but....really?

Why are you so sure Blurry is town?
Also, why don't you let him defend himself? You are acting like his babysitter or something, if he's pressured let him react to it goddammit!

Your play has been very weird lately Prob, shit.


This post is full of garbage. As other players have mentioned Blurry shouldn't have to be the only one to argue that he is town, others can argue it for him to avoid a mis-lynch. Mafia gains a clear advantage when no-body stands up for each other. Gonzaw is very aggressive and gives us some WIFOM against Blurry. Gonzaw is hypocritical here again, using WIFOM against Blurry, but when WIFOM is used against himself it can't be right.

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 12 2012 07:28 gonzaw wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 12 2012 06:12 Blurry wrote:
The idea that me immediately voting for Sheth was somehow a mafia plan to make me innocent in the town's eyes is rather stupid. I am not a good player by any stretch of the imagination so why would he sacrifice himself to try and help make one of the weakest players in the game look more innocent. It was not clear that he was going to be lynched. May I remind you that the vote for him succeeded by just one vote. If I had been scum I would have either feigned inactivity and not voted, or perhaps voted for Cats who was already under a lot of suspicion at that point.



Omg lol.

So instead of defending yourself against every point of the case against you, you just decide to cling unto WIFOM?
lol nice try

+ Show Spoiler +
The idea that me immediately voting for Sheth was somehow a mafia plan to make me innocent in the town's eyes is rather stupid


lol no it's not, ever heard of "bussing"?


+ Show Spoiler +
I am not a good player by any stretch of the imagination so why would he sacrifice himself to try and help make one of the weakest players in the game look more innocent


You mean, why would Sheth, a scum under A LOT of pressure, who was heading for a lynch, sacrifice 1 vote from his scumbuddy, and bus him so he would make his weak scumbuddy gain town cred so he can try to survive longer?

Hmm, let me see, I can't find any reason at all!

+ Show Spoiler +
It was not clear that he was going to be lynched. May I remind you that the vote for him succeeded by just one vote. If I had been scum I would have either feigned inactivity and not voted, or perhaps voted for Cats who was already under a lot of suspicion at that point


Great, did Sheth tell you to point this out later if somebody suspected you?

This is the shittiest WIFOM ever, just like all the WIFOM you've been pulling out throughout the whole game

Here, let me point them out for you:

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 04 2012 11:18 Blurry wrote:
The thing to watch for initially is whether or not a role blocker reveals himself. I doubt a role blocker would do anything so early however as they have no idea who to target and successfully cause some harm.



WIFOM

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.

Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.

My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.




HOLY SHIT ENORMOUS USELESS WIFOM

+ Show Spoiler +

On January 11 2012 07:27 Blurry wrote:
There is no way that both Gretorp and Xeris were scum because they were totally inactive and it is doubtful that they would have submitted their night actions. My guess with no evidence to back my claims is that its one of those two plus one of the players that has been more active.



More WIFOM.

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 12 2012 06:12 Blurry wrote:
The idea that me immediately voting for Sheth was somehow a mafia plan to make me innocent in the town's eyes is rather stupid. I am not a good player by any stretch of the imagination so why would he sacrifice himself to try and help make one of the weakest players in the game look more innocent. It was not clear that he was going to be lynched. May I remind you that the vote for him succeeded by just one vote. If I had been scum I would have either feigned inactivity and not voted, or perhaps voted for Cats who was already under a lot of suspicion at that point.



And here's the epitome of WIFOM too

+ Show Spoiler +
I am not a good player by any stretch of the imagination so why would he sacrifice himself to try and help make one of the weakest players in the game look more innocent



Thank you for reminding me of that.

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 06 2012 00:53 Blurry wrote:
Okay, my last post for the day:

Staying on CM/Tea as I am still unsure about Cephiro.

Other than that, I'm sorry I couldn't contribute more this first day as I am still new to this and am not sure what to look for in terms of reading players but by going over players posts I am getting a good idea and I'm sure my analysis quality will steadily improve over the course of the game.

One thing that strikes me looking back at all this is CM voting for CatsinHats. If CM/Tea is indeed scum then I think this provides evidence towards cats not being scum as I dont think CM would have been that meta especially with the holes in his play he has already shown. This can't be assumed however so I would still be suspicious.


+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 15:32 Blurry wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 12:30 gonzaw wrote:

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 08:51 Blurry wrote:
Part 2: (taking a long time to write this)
I know I originally wanted to not lynch somebody but the benefits of information make it a more appealing option and I feel like we have some solid candidates

7: Xeris
Has contributed absolutely nothing other than his stance against a lynch today. No analysis or contribution. Leaning on Scum.

8: Gretorp
Has also not contributed anything + no stance on any issue presented. Unless he posts something meaningful in the next day he will get my vote. Leaning heavily on scum.

9: Gonzaw
Likes to pressure people and prod them for feedback. Also posted his thoughts and took a clear stance on issues. Leaning on town.

10: Me
I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us.

11: Probulous
Another discussion leader. Has been active in contributing and putting pressure on people (catsnhats). Leaning on town for him.

12: CatsNHats
Although he may have flip flopped positions early in the game I still feel like he is town as he has not shied away from speaking his mind on who he thinks may be scum. We should pressure him but my stance on him is neutral.

Ugh... I don't feel like I added too much with that so I'll go back over everything and post my overall feeling for the game so far.



Hmm, I find it interesting how you use the same format Cephiro did for posting your analisis. Did you do that on purpose or is it a coincidence?


Also, who are those "solid candidates" you speak of?

If you had to lynch only one of them now, who would it be? Gretorp? Does the new events change your opinion or not?

Also:

+ Show Spoiler +
I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us.


Isn't this kind of obvious?
Of course if a townie is RBed he should claim, why did you feel the need to state so?


I posted in the same format as Cephiro because I'm new to this and I'm trying to pick up on how this game is played. Thus you will see me emulate some things that other players will do or how they format their analysis. This won't be the first time you will see this.

Solid Candidates: Gretorp, Cookiemaker
I would probably rather lynch Gretorp because he hasn't said anything

To your last point: This is a newbie game, maybe its not obvious. I just want to make sure that people know to claim a RB.


You are constantly undermining your own play, saying you are a "weak player"; that you'll "emulate some things other players will do", saying you are "new to this", saying you are "not sure what to look for in terms of reading players", and apologizing yoruself...

This is the "newb card" played so straight it hurts..

Of course, you are a "weak player" so we can just ignore you, right?





You haven't even responded to any of the other points I made.

You are still ignoring me. You have Prob being your babysitter, and nobody's listening to me. You may just think that ignoring me and let town focus on Cats can get you off the hook, since you just have 1 vote on you.

But you won't



People, it's obvious Blurry is scum, change your vote to him NOW.
I'm not sure Cats is scum yet, for a while he's actually contributing, being active, and at least he's fucking trying.
We can deal with Cats later, Blurry is far a better lynch, since I'm almost sure he's scum.



Blurry told the truth the whole time. He admitted he was a weak player. Gonzaw says Blurry is playing the "newb card". Blurry was a newb. Gonzaw was trying hard to goad people into voting up for Blurry based on nothing really.

He also speaks up for Cats here again in a more subtle to way to avoid any suspicion. Just something to note.

Then there is this Post.

Gonzaw doesn't even really defend himself here. He just curses a lot and says "you are twisting my words, stop it".

On January 13 2012 10:21 gonzaw wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2012 10:14 Probulous wrote:
Gonz, your thoughts on my claim?




Until nobody counterclaims I won't be sure, specially if nobody claims RB tomorrow.
Actually, if there is no RB tomorrow, then you fake-clamiing right now is totally stupid if you were scum, since you would get caught.
If there is a RB, then the real DT would counterclaim...
Maybe if the DT is Paper/Cats, you could get a mislynch

At least this makes me sure there is a RBer, if not this would be the most stupid fake-claim ever.
Wait, maybe your scumbuddy could fake-claim RB...

Still, if that happens we would have the 2 scums pegged down, so it still would be stupid.


If you are the DT, then well, at least you claimed at the right time (right in the deadline).




However, I find it weird that you didn't play like a "blue" instinctly plays, like I read on Ver's Guide.


There is no reason to fake claim here. Probulous breadcrumbed in the beginning of the thread, if that isn't proof enough. Prob was spot on against Sheth. Gonzaw is pretty much the only person that against Prob right now. Gonz then posts this weird post above about WIFOM non-sense, something he is against.

On January 13 2012 10:24 CatsnHats wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2012 10:21 gonzaw wrote:
On January 13 2012 10:14 Probulous wrote:
Gonz, your thoughts on my claim?


However, I find it weird that you didn't play like a "blue" instinctly plays, like I read on Ver's Guide.




Basically you're saying, "You didn't play detective the way I wanted you too, because I'm mafia and it made it hard for me to be sure that you were a blue."


Nail in the coffin.


##Vote: gonzaw


@CatsnHats:
On January 13 2012 09:56 CatsnHats wrote:
I don't really know what to say right now... I just waiting for the night post. I have a lot to write, I'm just not posting it right now for timing reasons. I will say I think Gonzaw and Paperscraps are mafia (in case I get killed in a little bit). I'm more confident in Gonzaw than Paperscraps.


You post that you think Gonzaw is looking better than me, why?

Also, I would like to note that while Gonzaw has made you look bad Cats. Your recent posts have been good. Prob had good instincts and thought you were town. I understand we don't see eye to eye at the moment, but we do agree on Gonzaw. I think he should be the next lynch before we proceed.

If we lynch Gonzaw, the next night kill will tell us a lot.


@Cephiro: and bkrow: Who are your reads right now? Who do you think the last two scum are?


@Everybody:
I am doing my best to step up my game from here on out. I do not want to be the reason that town loses this game.
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 13 2012 07:17 GMT
#912
Also I just want to clarify that both Cephiro and Cats are both on my radar for the last scum spot.

I will admit that I am somewhat of an stand-still. Prob had more faith in Cats, but Gonzaw has stood up for Cats a bit to kind of neutralize that. I am definitely confused here.

So right now that leaves Cephiro and Cats both on the same playing field in my eyes. We all need to be finding holes in each others posts. I have argued against Cats, so I am going to focus some attention on Cephiro to see what I can find out.

@bkrow:Since we know that your intentions are for the town, we really need you to speak up and give us your reads on all of us. Your opinion is very important now. You are also a likely target for N4, so get to posting!! You have a lot of sway over Ceph, Cats and I. You have a lot of say over who of us is going to get lynched.
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 13 2012 10:20 GMT
#915
@bkrow: I need you to post some actual analysis against me, so I can defend myself and tell you what I was thinking at the time. Your opinion is crucial from here on out. Post what you think on Cats and Cephiro as well.

@Cephiro: Do you still feel the same way in the post below? Post everything you suspect of me. I would like to see some analysis on CatsnHats as well.

On January 10 2012 10:30 Cephiro wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote:
I think Jitsu was on to something here. He was adamant that Cats was scum and had changed his position on Blurry. If we assume he was sure Cats was scum and believed Blurry is town that leaves one scum in the following list
  • Gonzaw
  • AnxiousHippo/Bkrow
  • Gretorp/Paper
  • Xeris/kronhjort


Here is what he had to say about Xeris and Gretorp
On January 10 2012 07:41 Jitsu wrote:
At this point, I think we can call Xeris/Gretorp new players - the previous lack of effort certainly wasn't able to give me enough information to determine their role, except MAYBE Gretorp.

Maybe.

That being said, I really hope that these guys stop lurking.


A solid null read and his thoughts on Bkrow amounted to
On January 10 2012 07:56 Jitsu wrote:
Bkrow, i'd like to see some posts in you're name. Add to the discussion. What do you think of Cats right now? you must have read the majority of the thread by now. What are some of you're scum reads?


Hardly suspicion. So what does this mean? It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats.

WIFOM alert, which is more likely?

Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him.

Or

Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz?


Or

We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time?

Bk, you are in that list and have at least been posting so, what do you make of this?


Do you think it could be possible that BOTH statements would be true? As in the last two scum would be Cats & Gonzaw? I haven't read through Gonzaw's filter yet, but I will check it and post my opinion in the morning. (3:30 AM, gonna sleep now.)



Some notes on CatsnHats:


On January 13 2012 10:24 CatsnHats wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2012 10:21 gonzaw wrote:
On January 13 2012 10:14 Probulous wrote:
Gonz, your thoughts on my claim?


However, I find it weird that you didn't play like a "blue" instinctly plays, like I read on Ver's Guide.


Basically you're saying, "You didn't play detective the way I wanted you too, because I'm mafia and it made it hard for me to be sure that you were a blue."


Here Cats is accusing gonzaw of being mafia? This is strange to me, because I think Gonzaw and Cats are mafia.

On January 13 2012 10:42 CatsnHats wrote:
EBWOP: I don't really think you are scum, Cephiro. You have to be included because you weren't confirmed by Prob, but you were the reason he checked Sheth, so you're town in my eyes.

Lynch Gonzaw, then Paperscraps and we win!


CatsnHats wants to lynch Gonzaw first.

CatsnHats wrote:
He hasn't really posted much since, trying to fly under the radar if you ask me. Him sheeping against Blurry makes him look pretty bad after the fact too. I don't have an official write up on Gonzaw yet, but I think we should lynch Paperscraps first because he is the safer of the two options in my eyes. That way we can extend the game another day and you/bkrow can make more reads on Gonzaw and me to make up your minds between the two of us.


Then CatsnHats switches to me suddenly? Cephiro would agree that CatsnHats has been changing his mind all the time in this Post.

This makes way more sense than bussing his mafia friend.

If the lynch of Gonzaw did go through with Cats pretense on wanting to kill Gonzaw, then I would be a prime subject the following day and mafia could still win. I still need to think on this some more.

On January 13 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote:
Thanks Prob, you've been our MVP up until now. I knew you were DT because you said you HAD to lynch Sheth, even if you're arguments were irrational. I thought you had checked my N2 though, because you changed your opinion of me and I didn't think that was possible unless you had looked at me.


Cats has been posting a bunch of filler posts about Probu being awesome and sucking up to him pretty much.
Cats claims he "knew" that Prob was DT and that we "HAD" to lynch Sheth, but this is after the fact and doesn't mean anything. Cats is using Probu to dissuade others from thinking he is scum.

How could you know something was true just because it was irrational? Makes no sense.

On January 12 2012 09:53 CatsnHats wrote:
Blurry that was an absolute bullshit play. I really hope you aren't a medic.

##Unvote: Paperscraps
##Vote: Blurry


"I really hope you aren't a medic." Quite a gamble you are willing to take there.

On January 12 2012 09:53 CatsnHats wrote:
bkrow/Cephiro we HAVE to have a lynch today. We can deal with the consequences after the lynch. Vote Blurry! Hurry!


Why did we need to have a lynch so badly? Cats says we can deal the consequences after the lynch, this give mafia +2 town kills. Suspcious...

On January 12 2012 09:55 CatsnHats wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 12 2012 09:54 Probulous wrote:
On January 12 2012 09:50 CatsnHats wrote:
Xeris (MIA) and Blurry are not going to vote for Blurry. So we would need 5 out of the 6 to get Blurry lynched. It's easier to get me or Paper lynched because Blurry would actually vote for one of us. We cannot no-lynch.


I would rather no lynch than lynch a townie.

There is no reason for Blurry to lie. Saving your skin by claiming only works when you claim early. I want him lynched but if that can't happen, then I will vote Paperscraps. Gonz, what is your take on this?


WHAT THE FUCK. 5 minutes left. Make a decision. We don't have time.


Cats gets crazy here and is demanding a vote to be made. I think a townie would be more hesitant to vote off a medic, rather than let the mafia kill them.

hmmmmm....still though lets look at Cephiro.

Some notes on Cephiro:

On January 04 2012 12:21 Cephiro wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 04 2012 12:11 gonzaw wrote:
So this is your first forum game ever? Not just first game on TL?

You seem to know quite a bit about the game though, may explain why?

Also, I'm fairly good with statistics/probabilities myself (just ask Jackal58), and I use them fairly in mafia games.
If the situation arises, it can be very helpful, as long as everything in the game is RNGed.

I assume this setup is RNGed, right?

On January 04 2012 12:06 Probulous wrote:
That is a good point Jitsu.

As I have stated, I am aiming for a mafia lynch. Only if I believe that we are headed for a miss-lynch will I advocate a no-lynch.

Again, where are the other US guys?
Sheth, Gretorp? You're asking for a vote.


The day is 48 horus long, right?

I would suggest pressure voting lurkers/inactives after 24 hours or so are past.

Although I don't know if you guys do that here or not.

Yeah, it's my first forum game ever. Haven't played this anywhere else either. I've read through quite a bunch of advanced games on different forums though, and I generally consider myself good at mindgames or understanding what people think / why they do something etc. So I'm really excited to see if it's correlates to success in here. Yeah, you heard right, watch out mafia!

I am going to sleep now though. I will re-read the thread (especially the new posts) a few times once I wake up and will try to join in as much as I can. If you have a hard time of trying to find out who is scum, then please do the town a favor and at least try to find some most-likely-town reads, since even that will help us narrow down the possible lynch.

I do agree that we could pressure vote lurkers/inactives later on in D1, hopefully forcing them to defend themselves and give us better reads.


First off I just want to note that Cephiro claims to be good at mind games. I will assume that as truth in the following analysis.

On January 13 2012 10:35 Cephiro wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2012 10:13 Probulous wrote:
Ceph, compare my change of heart with you to Cats. I made a habit on constantly re-evaluating, it screwed me over with the Blurry thing but it certainly helped with Cats.

Comparing Cats, Paperscraps, Blurry and Hippo and they look very similar. Obviously there is a scum in there somewhere but Cats did enough to redeem himself in my eyes. So if he scum, then well played.


The only thing why I'm wondering is that you are so sure on your read on Cats even without investigating him that you are leaving him out of the list of possible scum. I know I'm town, so if you are right, that would leave Paperscraps & Gonzaw.

Which brings up a few interesting points.. I can see that being possible. However I'm not letting anyone off the hook tomorrow if I survive. (Except bkrow if you die tonight)


Show nested quote +
On January 13 2012 10:20 Probulous wrote:
@ Ceph, what were your reasons?


You mean for not nailing anyone against the wall yesterday?

Quite simple. I was planning on pressuring Cats even further before the lynch, since I was (and I am still thinking), that he is getting off the hook way too easily, when he hasn't even defended himself against my original case. He even admit he can't.


Show nested quote +
On January 08 2012 11:23 CatsnHats wrote:
His analysis was the reason I made the martyr post. There was no real way for me to defend my play up to the point, and seeing it written up that way I knew I was distracting from catching scum.


I just can't stop thinking that Cats is not scum. He approved of my play earlier, and was talking about how I am so pro-town. But once he realized that doesn't get points with me, he moved on to you. And I think that is the only reason he is still alive. For managing to convince you.

Unfortunately all the drama with Blurry's poorly timed roleclaim messed up that totally.


Alright, so in light of this post. Either Cephiro has been trying to lynch Cats the whole game to divert suspicion from himself or he is right and Cats is scum.

On January 10 2012 07:42 Cephiro wrote:
Gretorp / Paperscraps = Null

The only thing which I am a bit surprised of is that Paper in his first post considers Xeris / Blurry scummy, but doesn't mention AnxiousHippo or Cats. We'll see soon enough.

Xeris / Kronhjort = Null / Slightly leaning towards scum.

Xeris was pushing quite hard (relative to his level of activeness) for his townyness, and no-lynching. Nothing from Kronhjort yet, so my opinion on this could change relatively easily. Also as Probu pointed out (yeah, go on and call me for ghosting on someone that doesn't have anything new to talk about), Sheth's comments about him aren't making him look any better.

AnxiousHippo / Bkrow = Slightly leaning towards scum

AnxiousHippo, I really don't have much new stuff to offer on him. His early game looks like a newbie town trying to contribute, but closer to the end of D1, it becomes more and more useless.

Show nested quote +
On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote:
On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote:
And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot
When? Don't think we've forgotten.

Xeris doesn't quite look scummy because we have nothing to analyse him on but he does look pretty dodgy, especially with Sheth's post in mind.
On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Well, the Xeris thing is based completely on the fact that I know him really well IRL and we've played mafia a bunch before. He is really bad mafia. Like he'd be lurking and mod killed if he was mafia.

He's already been warned, in a not-newbie game it'd be a modkill.
At the moment Cephiro looks more like mafia than CatsnHats, partly because I don't know what to make of Cats' "I give up post". He was also trying to play it safe till the pressure came on.
On January 05 2012 01:23 Cephiro wrote:
On January 05 2012 01:10 Tunkeg wrote:

What is it that makes you think CookieMaker is slightly town? You have listed alot of anti-town things about him but not one pro-town thing.


He had a very good start in my opinion, posting actively and talking about the different possibilities. I also like the fact that even though he is (or at least was) in favour of the no-lynch, he didn't give up on his thoughts just like that, but was sticking up for himself and why he thinks it's a good idea. I do have to admit that his last posts are quite fluffy, which is why I'm only carefully and only slightly leaning towards town on him for now. Jitsu had a few very good points about him though, which I slightly agree with. But for now I will still stick to my opinion about slightly town, until he posts more. He is on the edge of neutral and slightly town to me though.

Also, I am finding myself on thinking of Jitsu as slightly town now. His last post was exactly what I wanted to see from him.

On the other hand, I am still not sure about you. I think you are going slightly overboard with how much you are asking other's opinions, but not providing as much of your own. You have been suspecting quite a lot of people this early, and to what I see, there are two possibilities. Either you are mafia and trying to confuse people by trying to accuse a bit of everyone, or then you are just playing aggressive town, fishing for reactions for easier reads. I certainly hope you are the latter. But I remain neutral on you for now.
He says he sees Jitsu and CM as slightly town and he's neutral on Tunkeg.

He also falls back on "being excited" twice
On January 05 2012 02:38 Cephiro wrote:
On January 05 2012 02:24 Tunkeg wrote:
@Ceph and Cats

You guys say I have been suspicious to many players allready. Well, then you missread me, I am only suspicious to CM atm. xeris and Gretorp I am not suspicious of as of yet, just saying I will vote for them if they don't step up.
In my post to Blurry I didn't say I think he is suspicious, only that he haven't contributed greatly yet.

Ceph you said you think I have made to many questions posts and to little content posts. Well, to me content is opinions and analyzis of others play, and in my opinion I have allready made more content than you, including your day one analyzis post. I will give you credit for putting it out there, and it might lead to some discussion, but I think your reads are to vague and therefor the value of it isn't the greatest.

In closing I will say that I am not suspicious of you two as of yet, so there will be no missunderstanding.


I see, good of you to clarify that. After re-reading your filter a few times, I personally think that you have posted a lot of opinions, but not that much analysis. I do see your point what you're getting at, and I also do understand your opinion about my analysis post. I do have to agree with you they don't tell that much yet, but I am trying to provide others an idea of my opinions at the moment, and raising dicussion to help me clarify my reads. Might also have to do with me still being excited to get this game started.

+ Show Spoiler +
Hopefully they will answer your question posts seriously so we'll get more content thanks to you. I am not suscpicious of you either, but your recent answer enables me to get a better understanding of your playstyle, which I thank you for.

About your question as of Jitsu's post, it seems like he likes to concentrate his play on a few persons, which is very understandable. For me that post is making me lean to slightly-town on him, but I would like to see him take contact to more persons and his opinions about others too. If he isolates himself to only put pressure on these two it can have it's good sides, but at least I want to hear more of his thoughts before I say anything. He hasn't posted very much yet, but I still don't think he's scum.


On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote:
On January 05 2012 03:58 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing.

Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia.

I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here :

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:
I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with.
Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point.
Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other.
If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.)
That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early.
On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die.
(Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.)

Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot....

Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them.

Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.


Also...
Show nested quote +
On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote:
Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood!


What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway?


It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird.

However this morning you posted

+ Show Spoiler +

On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote:
Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.

Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.

Player List:
1.CookieMaker

For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.

2.Liquid`Sheth

Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.

3.AnxiousHippo

Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.

5.Tunkeg

Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.

6.Jitsu

Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.

7.Xeris

All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.

8.Gretorp

Same as above, neutral.

9.Gonzaw

Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.

10.Blurry

Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.

11.Probulous

Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.

12.CatsnHats

Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!

I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up.



Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you.

@Tunkeg we shall see. CatsnHats what do you think about this Gretorp guys first too posts. Good / bad / scummy?!?



Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example:

On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:

Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.


On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion.

I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me.

He also says he doesn't think Sheth is mafia but asks everyone else to watch him closely, implying he wants other people to call him out first so he doesn't have to worry about it.

His vote for Tea was also just a placeholder even though he said none of his top 3 scumreads is Tea.
On January 06 2012 08:22 Cephiro wrote:
Placeholder vote since I am quite sure I will not have enough time to convince the town on lynching someone else, sorry AKCT. :/

If there are some specific points anyone of you want me to answer, please point them out now.

##Vote A Killer Cuppa Tea
On January 06 2012 08:37 Cephiro wrote:
On January 06 2012 08:23 Probulous wrote:
Two questions Ceph

Would you vote for AKCT?

From that post you think Sheth, Cats and myself are scum? Is that right? I don't want to put words in your mouth again so please label the three scum for me.

Thanks for coming out guns blazing.


Voted for AKCT. We need to get a lynch today.

This will be a short post since I don't think I will have time for a full analysis, but at the moment the top-3 scumreads (in no particular order) for me are:

Liquid`Sheth, CatsnHats, Gretorp.


I am fairly sure that one of the lurkers is scum, even though I could be wrong. Gretorp has promised analysis twice, but nothing so far. Even though I do not like Xeris's overly safe play, I find Gretorp more scum than him at the moment.

I was thinking about building a bigger case against you, since you seemed to go for me so aggressively, but even if I would like to see more of your reads on others, I think you have a reason to keep them to yourself for now, and you're just trying to pressure the hell out of who you think are scum. So I'm actually leaning town on you.




@Jitsu if you look back at where he said Tea you'd see that I talked right before and after.

@CatsNHats get your head back in the game if you're town you should be more focused on killing mafia than convincing everyone you're a dead weight. Just keep trying, your last paragraph was decent, try expanding on that.


This is probably his worst post. (In my opinion). First he pushes Gretorp... after everyone else did it already, we don't really need everyone to do that. Especially not trying to make it look like you're the first one doing it.

Then he makes an insanely bad case against me. (Okay, I'll give him credit for trying, but in my opinion most of those points are so poor... I can't believe he didn't find anything more on me since he clearly tried, especially after Probu's case.)

After that, all we see is a promise of bandwagon analysis into disappearance. Not good.

Bkrow has a hilarious start. With the arrow pointing mistake.

He is at least trying to look like he is providing content, but in my opinion he isn't looking very townie so far:

Show nested quote +
On January 09 2012 12:21 bkrow wrote:
Cats what convinces you about Blurry being scum? I am reading through his filter and the scummiest thing i have come across is him advocating a no lynch on day 1 - but he seemed to go back on that idea later on. He also voted for Sheth straight up (from what i can see) and with such little KP it would be hard to see him doing that without some sort of indecision.

Sorry if i am rehashing old stuff i am just catching up still; i think we should be looking at:

a) people who were hesitant to vote Sheth
b) those who tried to offer alternate targets but once Sheth came up jumped on the "bandwagon"
and c) the lurkers who make me angry


This is probably his best post. Questioning Cats's case, and providing his own point of view where we are likely to find scum. Note the bolded, I will get to it soon.

Show nested quote +
On January 09 2012 12:49 bkrow wrote:
To be honest, considering those posts i don't see the case against Blurry more convincing than the case against Gretorp (now replaced by Paperscraps) - either Gretorp is very busy or very bad at being scum. Neither of those 2 situations are beneficial for town; but he is the first one that really grabbed my attention as inactive and intentionally dodging questions. He even promised analysis and.. well yeah..

I would love to hear from Paperscraps after he has caught up on the thread


Trying to focus attention on the other lurker, not providing analysis why he thinks Blurry is no more scum than Gretorp. You're allowed to have your own opinion, but please back it up with something.

Show nested quote +
On January 09 2012 14:10 bkrow wrote:
I can't really speak for my predecessor but i think the fact that he got replaced illustrates his involvement with the game and provides an explanation for his inactivity. As for the dodging questions - well again, if he was inactive enough to get replaced then i doubt he was actively dodging questions - if he was, well then lol he is bad.

I looked through Xeris' filter - all 3 (?) posts? Lurkers are particularly dangerous not only because they add nothing, but they are just so hard to read as there is nothing to go off. Also because this is a mini mafia, a mislynch on a lurker can do some damage.

I say we place FoS on Xeris (his replacement) and at the very least it will give him a chance to explain himself. For now i see Xeris as a more viable target based on Sheth's comments - but then again, to come out in such defence of a particular person when you are scum is basically tying your fates, so this may have been Sheth's attempt to latch onto a townie and at least secure some result if he was lynched.


This slightly looks like trying to make up for the mistakes that Hippo did, to secure his own play further. (The first bolded part.) He talks about Xeris here which other people have already pointed at, but he keeps juggling "it could be or it could not be".

Now he would like to hear more about Paperscraps (Gretorp's replacement), and FoS Xeris (The other lurker that is already under suspicion). He has only provided anything towards his c)-category, but nothing about the people that belonged to his a or b category. (Cats for example.)

My current opinion on scum: AnxiousHippo(bkrow)/Xeris(Kronhjort) is one of the scum, and Cats is the other.


Cephiro/Bkrow makes a good case against Cats here that he was hesistant to vote up Sheth for lynching.

On January 11 2012 12:42 Cephiro wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 10 2012 10:33 Probulous wrote:
I do, hence " It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats. " But either way we have to decide on a single lynch, which for me is deciding between these two scenarios.


Show nested quote +
On January 10 2012 10:54 Probulous wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 10 2012 10:19 Paperscraps wrote:
Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy.


Yes, Blurry votes when I ask him to, with no hesitation at all. He could have simply stuck with his read that Cats was scum until it became obvious Sheth was being lynched. I don't think he is clearly town, just more town than Cats. It is possible that he is mafia but if so that is one hell of a bus. If I recall correctly he was the second person to vote for Sheth. Remember I had pushed Cephiro's case day 1 and failed, why would he assume I would succeed day 2? As mafia, it would have been a much safer play to just wait it out. See if the wagon starts to pick gain even a single vote and then jump.

In addition to all this he was one of a handful of people who pointed out Sheth's mistakes in the very early game. Why do this if you are mafia? He plan has been to lurk, calling out your buddies is not lurking. Sure he didn't push the case hard but he definitely made one. We have very little to work on with Blurry but what we have seems more likely to be town than mafia. Either he is one hell of a mafia player, subtly bussing his team mate to gain town credit despite lurking, or he is simply a town lurker.


Prob: What is your read on Cats right now? Who are you thinking are scummy?


See above. Given Jitsu's suspicions I would place Cats as scum. It fits with his back and forth with Sheth. Sheth called him out on a simple mistake (wishy-washy)and instead of changing his play like a townie would, he kept going. Sheth than backed off when he realised he was casting geniune suspicion on his team-mate. He only voted for Sheth after Sheth told him to and has been all round terrible. His "leaving" post caused confusion and he claims it was a gambit. In general he has been nuisance to town so I would not be sad to see him leave.


Show nested quote +
On January 10 2012 12:26 Probulous wrote:
@Blurry Thanks for your mildly amusing expose on Cats. Whilst it doesn't add anything new it is a nice summary of Cats wishy-washy play. However, sheeping is NOT a point in your favour. Don't do it. You can start by giving me your case on who the third mafia is. Assume Cats is scum, who is his last buddy and why.


Show nested quote +
On January 10 2012 13:07 Probulous wrote:
@BK, can you please respond to this. I would also like your thoughts on who the third mafia is, assuming Cats flips scum. Your thoughts on Gonz would be welcome too, try and ignore what I have written about him. Thanks!


Show nested quote +
On January 10 2012 13:50 Probulous wrote:
That is why I say your play has improved.

Your gambit was terrible and created all sorts of mayhem, I hate it when people use passive aggressive stuff to gain emotional leverage. So yeah, no problem seeing you lynched. It is not meant as a personal thing, play better next time. I would happy to have another game with you.

Anyway, are we the only one's reading the thread?


Show nested quote +
On January 10 2012 15:41 Probulous wrote:
Cats, you confuse me, so how about a deal? I will keep my position open on your alignment if you give me a thorough case on why I should vote for Blurry over you.

The others seem pretty happy lynching you, which bothers me. This wagon is a little too easy to get going. Whether that is because your mafia brethren have given up on you or because you are town, is hard to say. Convince me.

In particular, look at my reasons for thinking Blurry is town and poke holes in it. I want people to tear my analysis apart, right now the rest of the town seem content to just accept stuff that is well formatted. You will go a long way to redeeming yourself in my eyes if you can do that for me.

I will try my best to read your case without bias, however if you are going to get this town to vote with you it will need to write a convincing case. Blurry hasn't done himself any favours so it should be a fair fight.

Show me what you got!


I understand being open to every possibility, but WHAT THE HELL Probu? This is a very surprising change from you this quickly. I do agree that he has picked up on his play, but enough to be your new bestest buddy? I am not even going to be wtf at Cats, I'm going to look WTF at you.

You ask him to provide a case on Blurry and/or question your analysis. He does NEITHER.

Instead he makes a case against da Lurker. How hard is that? I'll give that it's the best thing he's TRIED so far, but you are giving up on him way too easily not providing enough reasoning. Or is there some reason why you are very sure that Sheth could have set him up?

Show nested quote +
On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:
Probulous you probably weren't expecting this, but I'm about to change up my read. The more I read Blurry's thread, and I've read through it multiple times now, the more I think he is just a lurker newb not sure how to contribute. Even when he sheeped against me so hard recently, he admitted that he was doing it immediately. He was the 2nd person to vote for Sheth (and he had a surprisingly good read on him for posting so little). And the WIFOM posts I called him out on earlier make more sense in light of the fact that he says he has been using his gut alot since he feels his analysis isn't up to par. Your gut is the only way to make a decision about a WIFOM situation. I feel like I can read newb play, being that I was/still am one, and Blurry definitely strikes me as a lurker newb town now. Thats being said, he still needs to post more.

All of this reading wasn't in vain, because after perusing through filters I found a different target.

Paperscraps: Being a Replacement Doesn't Make You Innocent
[image loading]

A replacement for Gretorp, Paperscraps wasn't done any favors by having a terrible predecessor. Gretorp was a shady, shady player, drawing the suspicions of everyone despite having a small number of posts. Tunkeg the night killed townie called out Gretorp for lurking and responded with this:

On January 05 2012 01:13 Gretorp wrote:
On January 04 2012 23:40 Tunkeg wrote:
Looks like the only one I will get to discuss with is me, myself and I.

For Gretorp and Xeris please post before I give you both (imaginary) NASaL fractures... I am no lynch all lurkers fAnatic, but for now I will be more then happy voting for anyone of you unless you start contributing. So tag, gretorp you're it:

##Vote Gretorp


Tuneg,

It doesnt make sense to vote me. If you have watched any NASL or seen me play mafia, you know i'm genius level but inexperienced with mafia. ALL times i've been in tl mafia, i've been a townie so my ability play townie is better than mafia. If you take my genius brain and then apply the situations, the EV for me in general is positive to the point where you dont want to vote me. But you probably know this, hence you want to kick me off because youre a mafia.

SO I VOTE YOU, AND YOUR COUNTRY.

#VOTE TUNEG
+ Show Spoiler +


What is this other than OMGUS and an attempt to confuse the town? A very shitty move for a townie to make. After being pressured on this ridiculous post, Gretorp responds:

On January 05 2012 03:20 Gretorp wrote:
haha aws just kidding with the post but I will definitely once I analyze more ;-)


In other words, "LOL jk guys if I promise to make reads will you stop pressuring me?"

On January 05 2012 07:36 Gretorp wrote:
cephiro, why are you trying to create outlandish narratives to make a decisive choice? You aren't' leaving much range for people to be townie. so interesting! :-)


On January 05 2012 12:08 Gretorp wrote:
I work for most of the day and this goes pretty fast while I do a lot of projects for NASL. That being said, I want to know how many people actually believe this knowing that assumption. And I'm assuming people are thinking that i have as much time as them, hence I'm interested if you change your position based on activity.


On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote:
And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot


These are Gretorp's last 3 posts. Post #1 is an attempt to put pressure on someone else. Post #2 is an attempt to make an excuse to relieve the pressure on himself. And Post #3 is an attempt to make a promise to relieve the pressure on himself. And then poof, he was gone. This reads really scummy to me.


Come on ._. These 5 posts have been analysed all over, and now days later you are giving your opinion on them? I called you out for the fact that you had asked Gretorp to post, but then dropped it. Then you tried to pretend you hadn't forgot about it. And now you think it's scummy that he promised but dropped it? He got replaced for a reason. Why can't you be consistent?!?! I think you've been a dog in a leash for others this whole game. First Probu, then Sheth, now Probu...

Show nested quote +
On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:
Enter Paperscraps. Here's his first post.

[spoiler]
On January 09 2012 14:44 Paperscraps wrote:
Hey Everybody,

Glad to be here. I have been "semi" keeping up with the thread, but I will need to read through the filters to get a better read on people. I definitely plan on being more active than my predecessor.

I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow.


Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though.

On January 10 2012 09:39 Paperscraps wrote:
Hey all, just got home from school.

Ok onto reads and analysis.

Blurry Scum

1.
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:
On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.

Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.

My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.


Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you).

So to make it easy

Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not?


Yes I would, and will.

#Vote: Liquid'Sheth

As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it.



Either Blurry is trying to bus his mafia buddy, to alleviate further pressure from himself or has great gut instincts. I am leaning more toward the former, but he did make somewhat of a case about Sheth just pressuring and not weeding out scum. Read through his filter, something just doesn't feel right about him. I am interested in what his response will be.

Xeris (Kron) Null

Not much to say about Xeris (Kron) atm. Better to focus attention on other more active players until the need arises. Lurking is tricky and Kron might just be following the role already laid out before him, but that will only last for so long. I honestly think both players are/were inactive and not playing the game at all. If anything though is leads to a slightly scummy read.

Note: I guess the same case could be made about me, but I hope to post more frequently and provide real analysis and reads. I am new to Mafia via forums though, so I will have to find the groove here.

CatsNHats Town

Either inexperienced town or smart scum. In his first post he said he never played before, so that leads to believe he is just an inexperienced townie. No real reason to lie on your first post, unless you just want to troll the whole game, but I guess I would want to see the good in people not the bad.

He has posted a bunch of wishy-washy banter and defeatist attitude. Again either noob town or smart scum. Still leaning more towards noob

Jitsu, Probulous and Cephiro Town.

It will be interesting to see who the mafia kills, I think after tonight we will be able to get a better read on the mafia.




Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy.

Paper claims that:
"Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy."

Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player.

On January 10 2012 10:39 Paperscraps wrote:
Re-reading the filter of Cats and Jitsu. Jitsu being confirmed townie leads me to Cats being scum. Cats wishy-washy garbage and acting with Sheth saved him for one more day, but Jitsu's death has saved the town I think.

I am still leaning toward scum on Blurry as well.

We should deal with Cats first though and do Jitsu some justice.


Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter.

With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry.

Because of all of this reasoning above:

##Unvote: Blurry
##Vote: Paperscraps

I look forward to your response Paperscraps.

And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED.


I approve you for making the continuing the case on Paperscraps, looks better than what you started on with Gretorp. What I don't like however is that you are totally skipping on some things that I've done, I'm not sure if you just haven't noticed or are you leaving it out on purpose to make me look worse. I hope it's the first.

Show nested quote +
On January 11 2012 07:37 Probulous wrote:
Fair point. So which one? Given that Cats is actively participating and providing analysis I am happy to leave him today. Even if we assume he is mafia (I'm not sure) there is someone else and I agree that it he is either Gretorp/Paperscraps or Xeris/kronhjort.


Okay, let's assume that Cats is not mafia. Are you that certain on yourself that you will find the rest of the mafia today? If we mislynch today, and the mafia gets a night-kill through, we're in MYLO tomorrow, assuming they will get the N4 night-kill through also. I don't like how easily you are happy to leave him today just because he actively participates and ... provides analysis to some extent I guess. AND STILL HE KEEPS CHANGING HIS GODDAMN MIND ALL THE TIME, HOW IS THAT HELPING US?

Another reason why I don't like the idea of lynching someone else unless we are suddenly really sure:

Cats has already claimed that he is not a blue. If there are blues in the game, it is possible that we hit a blue if we mislynch. IF Cats actually happens to be a townie, we at least haven't hit a possible blue.

Show nested quote +
On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote:
Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him.

Or

Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz?

Or

We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time?


Remember what you said earlier. The first bolded is just as likely as the latter, but somehow you are suddenly very certain it's the last choice. You don't even seem to have checked up on Gonz. (I admit, I haven't posted anything on him yet either since I'm still re-reading his filter, trying to make sure I don't miss anything.) It's most likely that Gonz is town, but it doesn't hurt to double-check at this point does it?


Show nested quote +
On January 11 2012 08:00 CatsnHats wrote:
Thanks Prob. And that is a really hard question. I wouldn't be surprised when Xeris/Kronhjort gets mod-killed if he flips red. But that is just wishful thinking because there really isn't any info to go on for him/them. AnxiousHippo's play was suspicious but bkrow has played much much better. That leaves Cephiro, Gonzaw, and Blurry (you and I are town). I'd say the 3rd mafia is between Cephiro, Xeris/Krohnjort, and Gonzaw. Hopefully it's Xeris and we can win this game in one more day!!!


Just one question. Why have you been taking Probulous for granted this whole game?

As it stands now, I would still like to see Cats lynched, unless someone provides me with a convincing case against someone else, or that I find something even more scummier than Cats myself. Call me out for still pushing for him if you want, but I've been doing it since N1 started. I think you've let him off too easily.

I am open for the possibility I am wrong in Cats's case though, but at the moment I am finding it extremely unlikely, so until someone else provides me a better target:

##Vote: CatsnHats


Cephiro with a pretty solid case against Cats:
-Constant changing of his mind.
-Admitting to not being a blue.
-He is asked to provide a case on Blurry and/or question Probu's analysis. He does neither. (Note: He does so after the fact)

Cats hasn't defended himself from Cephiro's post.

Why do we keep letting Cats off so easily?

I can't find any holes in Ceph's filters. Either he is a very devious mafia or solid townie. I am thinking the latter.

Concerns:
Why did Cats target gonzaw?
I will admit that this make me suspicious of Cephiro, but the evidence is so stacked against Cats I just can't see it through.

One thing to note is that Cephiro has called out gonzaw in his post here.

What if Cats is town and really wanting to take out Gonzaw?
Again, I don't really what to think. Is Cats trying to play us somehow here?

Is Cats hostility towards me only because I had suspicions of him first? Is he just targeting me, because I targeted him? (OMGUS)

What if we are being played by Cephiro? Unlikely...

I have to admit I am bit confused and trust no one, but bkrow.
Bkrow is against me at the moment which doesn't bode well.
Hopefully, Ceph's post will help bkrow see the light in all of this.
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 13 2012 13:35 GMT
#916
EBWOP: To clarify my point on why Cats targeting gonzaw make me suspicious of Cephiro is that if Cats is town and justified in his targeting of gonzaw that would leave Cephiro left as last mafia. This is unlikely, but still a possibility.

Lets look at some communication between my assumed mafia.

gonzaw communicating to Cats:

The majority of gonzaw's communication toward Cats has been helping Cats out

On January 06 2012 11:55 gonzaw wrote:
EBWOP:

Show nested quote +
On January 06 2012 11:32 CatsnHats wrote:
Ok guys. I don't really want to do this, but I'm going to since it really is the best for the town. I think all of you should vote to lynch me on D2. I've come to realize that I am a terrible player of this game, especially as a townie (with no role I might add!). I should have found the newbie forum or got a better idea of this game before i signed up to play it. My first few posts I made before I realized the psychological and analytical implications of this game handicapped me and I've been playing the defensive ever since. After the bad start I put myself in, my goal was to make it past D1, which I did, so I'm fine with getting lynched if it's agreeable amongst everyone (I'm sure the scum will agree). All I have really done is distract you all from the real the scum with my terrible play, and that's not fair to the town. I also admit, I haven't added much in the way of original analysis because I was afraid that it would put me in even more hot water. The obviously wasn't the right play. Maybe you all can get D2 sped up if the mods allow it so anymore scumhunting time isn't wasted.

This probably isn't the correct time to do it since it's N1, but for the record.
##Vote: CatsnHats

For the record: in light of CM/Tea turning up green, I think it takes some heat of you Ceph. You (and the rest of the town) should spend your time looking into Xeris and Gretorp (because of questionable/contradictory posting when not lurking) and pressuring AnxiousHippo, a player who has gone unnoticed to others because of all of the accusations going around. He's made filler posts, keeps making excuses for not reading through everything, and throws out a placeholder vote for Xeris and a very bandwagon vote for CookieMaker/Tea. Quoted below:

On January 06 2012 08:36 AnxiousHippo wrote:
I haven't been able to go through everything as well as I hoped but we need a lynch. There was a lot of discussion on Cephiro but I haven't been able to read through it thoroughly enough so I'm going for Tea
##Unvote: Xeris
##Vote: A Killer Cuppa Tea



....what?



Okay, first things first: this is a GAME

Even if you say you "suck" at it and make "town" pay or something, try and get better at it.
Make it like a New Year's Resolution: I'll be good at TL mafia.

You are actually making it worse for us this way.
You will make us waste all of D2 because you want us to lynch you there.
If you are town, we will not find any scum because of it.

If you are town, and you act "scummy" and such, it would be better to misslynch you if you fight and defend yourself than lynch you just because you are a burden or something. In the first case we can get more info actually.
If you are scum, then maybe you just don't like being under so much pressure, so you acted like you "surrendered", and maybe even ask for a replacement because you are coming under too much fire.

Whatever the case (if you are town or scum)., you are not doing us any favour, and you are not doing any favours to yourself, so regain yourself goddammit!


Telling his scum buddy to never give up! Never surrender!

On January 12 2012 07:28 gonzaw wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 12 2012 06:12 Blurry wrote:
The idea that me immediately voting for Sheth was somehow a mafia plan to make me innocent in the town's eyes is rather stupid. I am not a good player by any stretch of the imagination so why would he sacrifice himself to try and help make one of the weakest players in the game look more innocent. It was not clear that he was going to be lynched. May I remind you that the vote for him succeeded by just one vote. If I had been scum I would have either feigned inactivity and not voted, or perhaps voted for Cats who was already under a lot of suspicion at that point.



Omg lol.

So instead of defending yourself against every point of the case against you, you just decide to cling unto WIFOM?
lol nice try

+ Show Spoiler +
The idea that me immediately voting for Sheth was somehow a mafia plan to make me innocent in the town's eyes is rather stupid


lol no it's not, ever heard of "bussing"?


+ Show Spoiler +
I am not a good player by any stretch of the imagination so why would he sacrifice himself to try and help make one of the weakest players in the game look more innocent


You mean, why would Sheth, a scum under A LOT of pressure, who was heading for a lynch, sacrifice 1 vote from his scumbuddy, and bus him so he would make his weak scumbuddy gain town cred so he can try to survive longer?

Hmm, let me see, I can't find any reason at all!

+ Show Spoiler +
It was not clear that he was going to be lynched. May I remind you that the vote for him succeeded by just one vote. If I had been scum I would have either feigned inactivity and not voted, or perhaps voted for Cats who was already under a lot of suspicion at that point


Great, did Sheth tell you to point this out later if somebody suspected you?

This is the shittiest WIFOM ever, just like all the WIFOM you've been pulling out throughout the whole game

Here, let me point them out for you:

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 04 2012 11:18 Blurry wrote:
The thing to watch for initially is whether or not a role blocker reveals himself. I doubt a role blocker would do anything so early however as they have no idea who to target and successfully cause some harm.



WIFOM

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.

Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.

My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.




HOLY SHIT ENORMOUS USELESS WIFOM

+ Show Spoiler +

On January 11 2012 07:27 Blurry wrote:
There is no way that both Gretorp and Xeris were scum because they were totally inactive and it is doubtful that they would have submitted their night actions. My guess with no evidence to back my claims is that its one of those two plus one of the players that has been more active.



More WIFOM.

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 12 2012 06:12 Blurry wrote:
The idea that me immediately voting for Sheth was somehow a mafia plan to make me innocent in the town's eyes is rather stupid. I am not a good player by any stretch of the imagination so why would he sacrifice himself to try and help make one of the weakest players in the game look more innocent. It was not clear that he was going to be lynched. May I remind you that the vote for him succeeded by just one vote. If I had been scum I would have either feigned inactivity and not voted, or perhaps voted for Cats who was already under a lot of suspicion at that point.



And here's the epitome of WIFOM too

+ Show Spoiler +
I am not a good player by any stretch of the imagination so why would he sacrifice himself to try and help make one of the weakest players in the game look more innocent



Thank you for reminding me of that.

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 06 2012 00:53 Blurry wrote:
Okay, my last post for the day:

Staying on CM/Tea as I am still unsure about Cephiro.

Other than that, I'm sorry I couldn't contribute more this first day as I am still new to this and am not sure what to look for in terms of reading players but by going over players posts I am getting a good idea and I'm sure my analysis quality will steadily improve over the course of the game.

One thing that strikes me looking back at all this is CM voting for CatsinHats. If CM/Tea is indeed scum then I think this provides evidence towards cats not being scum as I dont think CM would have been that meta especially with the holes in his play he has already shown. This can't be assumed however so I would still be suspicious.


+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 15:32 Blurry wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 12:30 gonzaw wrote:

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 08:51 Blurry wrote:
Part 2: (taking a long time to write this)
I know I originally wanted to not lynch somebody but the benefits of information make it a more appealing option and I feel like we have some solid candidates

7: Xeris
Has contributed absolutely nothing other than his stance against a lynch today. No analysis or contribution. Leaning on Scum.

8: Gretorp
Has also not contributed anything + no stance on any issue presented. Unless he posts something meaningful in the next day he will get my vote. Leaning heavily on scum.

9: Gonzaw
Likes to pressure people and prod them for feedback. Also posted his thoughts and took a clear stance on issues. Leaning on town.

10: Me
I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us.

11: Probulous
Another discussion leader. Has been active in contributing and putting pressure on people (catsnhats). Leaning on town for him.

12: CatsNHats
Although he may have flip flopped positions early in the game I still feel like he is town as he has not shied away from speaking his mind on who he thinks may be scum. We should pressure him but my stance on him is neutral.

Ugh... I don't feel like I added too much with that so I'll go back over everything and post my overall feeling for the game so far.



Hmm, I find it interesting how you use the same format Cephiro did for posting your analisis. Did you do that on purpose or is it a coincidence?


Also, who are those "solid candidates" you speak of?

If you had to lynch only one of them now, who would it be? Gretorp? Does the new events change your opinion or not?

Also:

+ Show Spoiler +
I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us.


Isn't this kind of obvious?
Of course if a townie is RBed he should claim, why did you feel the need to state so?


I posted in the same format as Cephiro because I'm new to this and I'm trying to pick up on how this game is played. Thus you will see me emulate some things that other players will do or how they format their analysis. This won't be the first time you will see this.

Solid Candidates: Gretorp, Cookiemaker
I would probably rather lynch Gretorp because he hasn't said anything

To your last point: This is a newbie game, maybe its not obvious. I just want to make sure that people know to claim a RB.


You are constantly undermining your own play, saying you are a "weak player"; that you'll "emulate some things other players will do", saying you are "new to this", saying you are "not sure what to look for in terms of reading players", and apologizing yoruself...

This is the "newb card" played so straight it hurts..

Of course, you are a "weak player" so we can just ignore you, right?





You haven't even responded to any of the other points I made.

You are still ignoring me. You have Prob being your babysitter, and nobody's listening to me. You may just think that ignoring me and let town focus on Cats can get you off the hook, since you just have 1 vote on you.

But you won't



People, it's obvious Blurry is scum, change your vote to him NOW.
I'm not sure Cats is scum yet, for a while he's actually contributing, being active, and at least he's fucking trying.
We can deal with Cats later, Blurry is far a better lynch, since I'm almost sure he's scum.


Here again he defends Cats and throws Blurry under the bus.

In gonzaw's post(long post) regarding my change in stance on Blurry he again tries to shift the blame away from Cats to Blurry.

On January 13 2012 10:28 gonzaw wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2012 10:24 CatsnHats wrote:
On January 13 2012 10:21 gonzaw wrote:
On January 13 2012 10:14 Probulous wrote:
Gonz, your thoughts on my claim?


However, I find it weird that you didn't play like a "blue" instinctly plays, like I read on Ver's Guide.




Basically you're saying, "You didn't play detective the way I wanted you too, because I'm mafia and it made it hard for me to be sure that you were a blue."




No I'm fucking not, I'm saying that's a reason why I'm not 100% sure on his claim


Obvious retort.

On January 13 2012 10:14 gonzaw wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2012 10:03 Probulous wrote:
Gonzaw, please leave the anger and swearing and vengeful wrath at home.

It doesn't help us out at all. It just makes it hard to read what you are trying to say.



I get pissed when people say stupid stuff, what can I do?

Show nested quote +
On January 13 2012 10:02 CatsnHats wrote:
Gonzaw never posts anything of substance. Just look at his defense post above. If you even FOS him a little bit, he goes into WTF fuck fuck fuck are you kidding me? mode. All of his post are just little incredulous statements that mean nothing followed by a question mark.



Thank you for your sheeping!


"All his posts are just little incredulous statements"
"Gonzaw never posts anything of substance"


You better back that up, I'm expecting your response if both of us are alive tonight.
Hell, even if I die you should post that response too


Now Gonzaw and Cats realize they need to make some jibs at each other to make it seem like they aren't working together

Gonzaw replies oddly compared to past behaviour here. Usually if you post anything against Gonzaw he will jump down your throat and curse like crazy. Here he says in a manner way against his scum buddy to simple provide proof of his accusations. No caps, no curse words. Interesting...

The lines at the end crack me up, because he knows that he isn't going to die to a night kill.

On January 13 2012 10:46 gonzaw wrote:
Fuck.


Okay people, we need to get scum today no matter what.

I'm being unsure at the moment though.

Although now that we have less players, I'm pretty sure Paper is scum.

Cats, I want your response.

I'll check Cephiro's fliter too, everybody's been going about how he's "confirmed town", by Prob and others, and that is dangerous.


Filler post. Telling Cats he wants him to provide some analysis against him or people are going to figure out they are in cahoots.

Cats communicating to gonzaw:

Cats communication toward gonzaw is pretty limited in the beginning of the game.

On January 05 2012 05:37 CatsnHats wrote:
@gonzaw I haven't voted for Gretorp because I thought we weren't supposed to vote until near the end of D1. Throwing a vote out with so many hours left to use for reads isn't very smart. Plus I was waiting for his response, as well as the first posts of Xeris and the return of Blurry, who seems to have fallen off the face of the Earth.


On January 06 2012 10:36 CatsnHats wrote:
@Gonzaw You're right, that quote is damning along with the rest of his contradictions. He'll definitely have some explaining to do, but I don't know how we take this any further without Xeris answering the town's concerns.


On January 07 2012 12:59 CatsnHats wrote:
In regard to my martyr post, I'll admit that I felt pretty defeated when I was writing it, but then I realized that I could use your reactions as fodder for evidence and as a way of generating discussion, so I lurked and waited. I was pretty disappointed for the most part, a lot of "Don't give up for the town's sake" responses that came from the players with really town-y reads already (Prob, Gonzaw, Tunkeg), and this was meant to find scum, not confirm town. But then AnxiousHippo posted thank goodness, something I could make a read on.


Here he leaning towards gonzaw being townish.

On January 08 2012 09:16 CatsnHats wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2012 05:46 gonzaw wrote:

Also people, what do we do regarding Xeris/Gretorp? Just wait?


It's all we can do right now. It's been at least 48 hours since either of them has posted. Their inactivity is such a handicap for us because we've made all the reads we can until they respond, which leaves the rest of us to point the finger at each other just because we're (Sheth, Gonz, Prob, Jitsu, Myself, Tunk until he was killed) the only ones that are talking. They're either mafia, shitty/scummy town players, or don't play on playing this game at all. At this point I'm kinda expecting them to be mod-killed.


Filler

On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote:
@Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me.


Admitting to sheeping against Sheth, along with guess who? gonzaw!

On January 09 2012 07:16 CatsnHats wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:
On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:

Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not?


Yes I would, and will.

#Vote: Liquid'Sheth

As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it.


Admission of bandwaggoning. You can't claim you were suspicious of him if you didn't post anything. That statement means nothing except "I'm sheeping Prob's content."


More agreement with gonzaw.

On January 09 2012 13:31 CatsnHats wrote:
Probulous I agree Xeris>Gretorp in terms of scumminess out of the lurkers. I've stated my suspicion of Blurry a couple of times too, he hasn't been helping himself lately. If I had to pick 3 for the 2 spots remaining it would be Blurry, AH/Bkrow, and Xeris. I'll give Bkrow some time to prove himself though. Also, Gonzaw is null for me right now. The way he placeholder voted Sheth (even if he was mafia) didn't sit well with me. I need to recheck the filter to confirm.


Gonzaw is now null

On January 09 2012 13:46 CatsnHats wrote:
Alright I rechecked Gonz's filter. Other than the bullshit back and forth between him and Tunkeg (poor tunk ), he's played very pro-town up to this point. He's really been on Blurry and Xeris, which I obviously like. And sure he ghosted your Sheth read, but I've been much more guilty of that offence so I can't hold it against him.


Gonzaw is now very pro-town.


On January 11 2012 08:00 CatsnHats wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 11 2012 07:01 Probulous wrote:


Much better

This in particular stood out to me "Jitsu's death has saved the town I think". There is no way that town is better off with Jitsu dead. Ironically his initial position that you were town gave him more credibility in my eyes which is why I asked him to explain it, he then changes his mind and with the flimsiest of reasoning.

Who do you think is the other mafia?


Thanks Prob. And that is a really hard question. I wouldn't be surprised when Xeris/Kronhjort gets mod-killed if he flips red. But that is just wishful thinking because there really isn't any info to go on for him/them. AnxiousHippo's play was suspicious but bkrow has played much much better. That leaves Cephiro, Gonzaw, and Blurry (you and I are town). I'd say the 3rd mafia is between Cephiro, Xeris/Krohnjort, and Gonzaw. Hopefully it's Xeris and we can win this game in one more day!!!


Now Gonzaw is suddenly a suspect with Cephiro

On January 12 2012 09:35 CatsnHats wrote:
Gonzaw is you keep you vote on him that would be a guaranteed no-lynch (Xeris is MIA). That's 7 people. We technically need 5. 2 are on me, 2 are on Paperscraps. We have to lynch somebody. Blurry can wait for tomorrow/tonight.


Filler

On January 13 2012 09:56 CatsnHats wrote:
I don't really know what to say right now... I just waiting for the night post. I have a lot to write, I'm just not posting it right now for timing reasons. I will say I think Gonzaw and Paperscraps are mafia (in case I get killed in a little bit). I'm more confident in Gonzaw than Paperscraps.


Now and interesting turn. He thinks gonzaw>paperscraps in terms of scum. No analysis though as of yet.

On January 13 2012 10:02 CatsnHats wrote:
Gonzaw never posts anything of substance. Just look at his defense post above. If you even FOS him a little bit, he goes into WTF fuck fuck fuck are you kidding me? mode. All of his post are just little incredulous statements that mean nothing followed by a question mark.


Obvious filler information.

On January 13 2012 10:24 CatsnHats wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2012 10:21 gonzaw wrote:
On January 13 2012 10:14 Probulous wrote:
Gonz, your thoughts on my claim?


However, I find it weird that you didn't play like a "blue" instinctly plays, like I read on Ver's Guide.




Basically you're saying, "You didn't play detective the way I wanted you too, because I'm mafia and it made it hard for me to be sure that you were a blue."


Not too sure what is going on here. I agree with Cats on this. Cats bussing his mafia buddy?

On January 13 2012 10:31 CatsnHats wrote:
GG Probulous. Brilliant, brilliant play my friend.

Ceph, bkrow, we gotta get Gonzaw.


Back to lynching gonzaw.

On January 13 2012 10:42 CatsnHats wrote:
EBWOP: I don't really think you are scum, Cephiro. You have to be included because you weren't confirmed by Prob, but you were the reason he checked Sheth, so you're town in my eyes.

Lynch Gonzaw, then Paperscraps and we win!


Still on lynching gonzaw, still no analysis.

On January 13 2012 11:11 CatsnHats wrote:
He hasn't really posted much since, trying to fly under the radar if you ask me. Him sheeping against Blurry makes him look pretty bad after the fact too. I don't have an official write up on Gonzaw yet, but I think we should lynch Paperscraps first because he is the safer of the two options in my eyes. That way we can extend the game another day and you/bkrow can make more reads on Gonzaw and me to make up your minds between the two of us.


Sudden change of heart to me. Still no analysis on gonzaw.
Honestly I don't know how I went from being less scummy than gonzaw to more with almost no explanation.
This is the constant change of play we have seen all game from Cats.

For CatsnHats:
Gonz goes from (slight town) to (null) to (very-pro town) to (suspicious) to (scum). Very minimal reasoning for all of these assertions.

For Gonzaw:
Cats goes from....oh wait he never commits to any real opinion of Cats. Interesting....

Conclusion:
CatsnHats and gonzaw have provided very little against each other throughout the game. They didn't communicate very heavily in the beginning. Gonzaw has been definitely helping Cats more than trying to find out that he is scum, something in which gonzaw prides himself on I might add.

On January 07 2012 09:11 gonzaw wrote:
I try to pick up inconsistencies and odd behaviour from anyone I can, that's how I catch scum.
....
In the UG games, there's one thing I do to find scum.
I see which players don't even talk to each other when not pressured to.
I don't mean talk as in just quoting and saying uninteresting filler stuff. I also don't mean mentioning each other, whether to make them suspicious or defend themselves. I mean talk as in arguing with each other, pressuring each other, etc.
I think this happened in the previous Newbie game too.


Cats inconsistent play doesn't strike gonzaw as odd?
By gonzaw's logic, Cats and gonzaw's minimal and evasive communication should be something to note then.
Cats is all over the place with accusations and changes of heart.

Thus, CatsnHats and Gonzaw are mafia scum.

BOOM! Goes the dynamite!
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 13 2012 19:37 GMT
#919
On January 14 2012 02:13 CatsnHats wrote:
Paperscraps, you seem to think that it is important what order I think we should lynch you and Gonzaw. I did flip-flop from Gonzaw to you 1st, but it doesn't really matter either way. If you want to lynch your scumbuddy Gonzaw first, then by all means I'll be down to do it. You're both scum in my eyes.

This is an obvious deflection of attention from Cats' own self again. He doesn't provide a case against Gonzaw.

Your argument makes me shake my head because you came into the game late and I can almost guarantee that you only read my filter, not the posts from other people that surround mine.

So reading a filter is a bad thing? To answer your question, I did read mostly through your filter, but important posts I read through the thread to get the general context. What is your point here?

You say this: (Paperscraps says this, I moved this line for clarificiation of my point above.

"Cats has been posting a bunch of filler posts about Probu being awesome and sucking up to him pretty much.
Cats claims he "knew" that Prob was DT and that we "HAD" to lynch Sheth, but this is after the fact and doesn't mean anything. Cats is using Probu to dissuade others from thinking he is scum."

Show nested quote +
On January 13 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote:
Thanks Prob, you've been our MVP up until now. I knew you were DT because you said you HAD to lynch Sheth, even if you're arguments were irrational. I thought you had checked my N2 though, because you changed your opinion of me and I didn't think that was possible unless you had looked at me.


It's not sucking up because I said it when we all thought Probulous was going to die (himself included). This was like a goodbye post. For the record, Probulous is/was awesome. If we manage to win this, it will be because of him. That being said, I don't even think you read my post correctly. I didn't say "we HAD to lynch Sheth." I said Probulous HAD to lynch Sheth, even if he had to use irrational arguments to convince people. Why did I say that? Because I was quoting what Probulous said right here:

I didn't say that "you HAD to lynch Sheth". I said that it was impossible to prove that you knew these things at the time they came up. It is a goodbye post, but it doesn't bring anything useful to the table. Filler is filler.

Show nested quote +
On January 09 2012 10:09 Probulous wrote:
@Sheth, I hope that wasn't too bad! I know some of my arguments weren't exactly rational but I had to get you lynched.

Maybe chat after the game. Thanks for playing!


Hmmmm... why would someone push so hard to get a person lynched, even using irrational arguments? Because they are the DT. Come on Paperscraps, read the thread, not just filters.

Thanks for clarifying/justifying your thinking here, this is your first solid point in an otherwise useless post.

Show nested quote +

For CatsnHats:
Gonz goes from (slight town) to (null) to (very-pro town) to (suspicious) to (scum). Very minimal reasoning for all of these assertions.


As for my change of opinion on Gonzaw, why is that not allowed? Did you check the time stamps on those posts?

Slight-town: 7th
Null: 9th
Very-pro town: 9th (I had just checked his filter, and said he "played very pro town up to that point." That doesn't mean I am certain he is town. You even agreed he had because of the way he bussed Sheth. This is a town read in my eyes, but I'll leave it as very pro town for the sake of argument.)
Suspicious: 11th
Scum: 13th

I was just stating the stance communication between gonzaw and you. I will let others take away from that what they wish.

That is 2 days in between most of those posts. 2 days is ALOT of posts and opportunities to make reads, especially for someone like Gonzaw who hasn't made a glaring mistake to completely change town sentiment on him. The reason I kept changing was his relentless aggression and cursing in his defense of himself. It kept throwing me off. I think he is mafia now though, and if we lynch him and he flips red, it shouldn't matter that I thought he was town in the early game, when reads are so difficult to make.

Alright this is your second solid point. Vote up gonzaw then.

You are also getting on to me for my posting before the lynch and nightkill posts. You say they are filler. They may look like that now, but the hour before each of those events was a flurry of posting. If you think I'm scum because I posted a lot during the most stressful period of the game to date, then so be it.

This is a pretty blatant admission to being scum. Thanks for making so clear now. Stress cause people to do weird things. Like post rapidly perhaps or out of character.


On January 14 2012 02:19 CatsnHats wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2012 17:12 bkrow wrote:
I.e. if Paper flips red then we can assume Cats and Gonz are likely green and Ceph is the remaining scum;

If he flips green.. we lose? lol

The issue i have is that one of the above players could have just bussed a mafia buddy to throw us all off; but i doubt that much effort would have beeen put into an analytical post which has the chance of convincing the town on a lynch.

Well.. thoughts?


Why does Paper flipping red mean Gonz is green and Ceph is red? You said in the post before it that Ceph is a townie. I think Paper is bussing Gonz to save himself the next day and vice versa.

Just note Cats is using the same argument here against me and that I accuse him of. OMGUS He doesn't provide any analysis to back it up.

My responses are bolded.

Don't give up the pressure on Cats town! He hasn't provided any analysis. He said he would make a post about gonzaw, where is it? We have him grasping at straws.

@bkrow: I am also curious about your reasoning, that if I flipped red that would make Cephiro scum? please clarify this.

@Cephiro: Looking forward to your actual analysis. Not like this mostly filler post by Cats.

"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 14 2012 01:12 GMT
#925
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 14 2012 05:31 GMT
#930
Disclaimer: I won't be available during the last 5 hours of Day 4. I have to work tomorrow from noon to 5(pst), unfortunate timing I know, but we all have lives.

Thus, I will continue my crusade against gonzaw and CatsnHats. I am going to keep stacking the evidence against them without relent. Both players in the past few day have provided poor/evasive/filler feedback.

gonzaw's response to my argument against him was kind of hilarious. He is digging his own grave at the moment.

That leaves me with convincing Cephiro and bkrow that I am town and CatsnHats is scum.

I believe all of my posts including and after this one provide good arguments against gonzaw and CatsnHats.

Let us start the analysis!

CatsnHats:
Remarks in bold.
On January 14 2012 05:19 CatsnHats wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2012 10:48 Cephiro wrote:
On January 13 2012 10:42 CatsnHats wrote:
EBWOP: I don't really think you are scum, Cephiro. You have to be included because you weren't confirmed by Prob, but you were the reason he checked Sheth, so you're town in my eyes.

Lynch Gonzaw, then Paperscraps and we win!


But you weren't confirmed by Prob either any more than me. (I consider confirmed by Prob only the people that he checked)

I'm still not sold on that you would be a townie. Could you provide YOUR cases on Gonzaw and Paperscraps, and include that why do you think the other is a bigger threat?

I will be leaving in a few minutes myself, but when I come back, I'm going to post a lot. A LOT. (And it's not going to be useless fluff.)


I know I haven't responded to your analysis against me in the early game. But remember that I said I couldn't defend myself against it. Up until the Sheth lynch (I really thought he was town, it was a gut feeling, kinda like Prob's gut feeling on Blurry), I flip-flopped, I bandwagoned, I did everything in my power to not be killed (see martyr post lol). If I was mafia, don't you think Sheth (and possibly the mafia's coach if they're using one) would've taught me how to play better in the beginning? Sheth was the first person to subtly pressure me and I almost fell apart right there. I haven't used a coach and realized after the Sheth lynch (perhaps to late) that analysis and active contribution were the only way I was going to prove myself. You've admitted in multiple posts that I have stepped my game up, enough to where you even placed a vote on Paperscraps (until the Blurry incident).

Cats gives some hypothetical here about how he would have played better if he was mafia, because he would have used a coach. This is impossible to know and doesn't help.

This whole paragraph is a plea for Cats to be spared. There is no analysis here.


Show nested quote +
On January 12 2012 09:40 Cephiro wrote:
##Vote Paperscraps

If he flips green and Cats is alive in the morning.... I'll vote for him and won't change my vote no matter what.

I do this only because you've picked up your play and you finally stand by your case. I hope I am doing right in trusting you.


Ceph, I'm asking you to put your trust in me again. Think of me as Cats, the active contributor and analyzer of late, not Cats, the newb wishy-washy trash player of the early game.

I will translate this. "Please mister! You can trust me!" *bats eyelashes* "I am not going to provide any evidence against other players, just trust me." Emotion and gut feelings don't win games.

Show nested quote +
On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote:

WIFOM alert, which is more likely?

Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him.

Or

Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz?

Or

We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time?


I bolded the case that I think is correct. Probulous and Jitsu were suspicious of Gonzaw. Now both of them are not here,

You think it is correct? WHY? Let's see some analysis!

Show nested quote +
On January 13 2012 10:48 Cephiro wrote:

I'm still not sold on that you would be a townie. Could you provide YOUR cases on Gonzaw and Paperscraps, and include that why do you think the other is a bigger threat?


I provided the Paperscraps case, but I haven't done a full blown Gonzaw case yet. I don't know if a full blown case is needed on him though. We have Prob and Jitsu suspecting him, and now they're both gone. That counts for something. I still post something about Gonz later though. As for who is more dangerous, I kinda think Paperscraps is. I don't think Gonzaw is capable of defending himself well other than cursing and rhetorical questioning, Paperscraps is beginning to be more active (although I don't think his arguments are that great). I could see Paperscraps convincing you and bkrow that he is just a newbie though, and that scares me. That being said, I'm fine with voting off either, because I think both are mafia. What do think Ceph?

Cats is contradicting himself yet again here. He says he doesn't have a full blown case against gonzaw, but until recently he was sure gonzaw>Paperscraps on the scum scale. Cats says my agruments aren't that great, but provides no reasons why. We are all newbies here Cats, just read the title of the thread. This whole paragraph screams hesitation! Cats is yet again waiting to hear from the majority, so that he doesn't step on any feet with voicing his own opinion. So much contradiction. Why hasn't Cats voted me up yet? Stick to your guns!! You can't sheep the whole game. Can't you provide a decent argument against Me, gonzaw or Cephiro?


It is time to nut up or shut up CatsnHats. Cats is playing the field right now. He is waiting to vote up others and delaying solid analysis, because he wants to hear others opinions? What about your opinion Cats? Don't you have one? Opinions that actually have some analysis to them?

@Cephiro: I am not going to beg you trust me like Cats is. Just look at all the solid arguments I have made against Cats and gonzaw. Logic and reasoning is the only thing you can trust in a game of mafia!

On January 14 2012 05:39 CatsnHats wrote:
EBWOP: Cephiro and bkrow have alot to read between Gonzaw, Paperscraps, and I. I'm not going to post again until they've written their thoughts.

Sounds pretty evasive to me.

Also, I find this very interesting:

Show nested quote +
On January 13 2012 09:32 Cephiro wrote:

One point that I find interesting is that Cats and Probu have had a lot of discussion between them, whereas Paper and Gonzaw have been playing much more individually. Is it a tell of something? Maybe. It could be or it could not be.



Scum trying to stay off one another's toes? I think so.

Just because Probu took a liking to you before he died doesn't exonerate you. Agreed Probu had solid analysis, but then again Probu was wrong with CM and me. If you suck up to people they are going to like you more. I don't find this point valid at all. WIFOM at its best.

@Gonzaw, who are you even quoting in your post? You didn't put anyone's names when you quoted them. Hopefully you didn't quote more than one person.


gonzaw:
(long post)+ Show Spoiler +
On January 14 2012 05:04 gonzaw wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 13 2012 11:11 CatsnHats wrote:He hasn't really posted much since, trying to fly under the radar if you ask me. Him sheeping against Blurry makes him look pretty bad after the fact too. I don't have an official write up on Gonzaw yet, but I think we should lynch Paperscraps first because he is the safer of the two options in my eyes. That way we can extend the game another day and you/bkrow can make more reads on Gonzaw and me to make up your minds between the two of us.





What?

Are you kidding me? You are just sheeping Prob again?


Show nested quote +
On January 14 2012 02:13 CatsnHats wrote:
That is 2 days in between most of those posts. 2 days is ALOT of posts and opportunities to make reads, especially for someone like Gonzaw who hasn't made a glaring mistake to completely change town sentiment on him. The reason I kept changing was his relentless aggression and cursing in his defense of himself. It kept throwing me off. I think he is mafia now though, and if we lynch him and he flips red, it shouldn't matter that I thought he was town in the early game, when reads are so difficult to make.

You are also getting on to me for my posting before the lynch and nightkill posts. You say they are filler. They may look like that now, but the hour before each of those events was a flurry of posting. If you think I'm scum because I posted a lot during the most stressful period of the game to date, then so be it.



Show nested quote +
On January 13 2012 10:02 CatsnHats wrote:
Gonzaw never posts anything of substance. Just look at his defense post above. If you even FOS him a little bit, he goes into WTF fuck fuck fuck are you kidding me? mode. All of his post are just little incredulous statements that mean nothing followed by a question mark.




Oh right, that was the reason

/sarcasm


You didn't even respond to that post I made.
Good job trying to get everybody to ignore that, but I won't.

And you know why I'm so angry at Prob's case? Because it's full of WIFOM, nitpicking of wording, logical fallacies, strawman and confirmation bias it's not funny!!!



Let's see Prob's "thought process" here:

-Okay, I'm DT, and I checked BK and came back town, therefore he's town
I assume Cats and Cephiro are town. Therefore gonz and Paper are scum.
Q.E.D......wait shit, I have to make a case against him now...hmmm what to do?
Oh, I'll just quote every post of his and "tell a story" about how he posted from a mafia perspective, that will work.


That's fucking confirmation bias, which makes all of his case fucking wrong.
You know why? Because I'm town.
Now why would that be possible?
Because he fucked up by assuming both of you (Ceph and Cats) were town.



Also, you are indeed sheeping Prob, and have been doing it since the beginning of the game.

Last day I also agreed with Prob that your game was improving, you were active and such.
But no, last night your game has gone to worse so bad it's not funny.
Your blatant sheeping with Prob against someone you weren't suspicious of before using a shitty case, makes you look SO bad, I'm actually thinking you are scum too.



Also, now that you think Prob is so "awesome" and has "awesome reads", let me tell you something about Prob:

How many "scum reads" did he make before mine?
4: Cats, Ceph, Cookie and Sheth

From Prob's POV (where he assumes both Cats and Ceph are town), then that means he got 3 out of 4 reads absolutely wrong!
But "well" you say, "at least he got the Sheth read right , right?"
Yeah, but why was that?
Oh yeah, HE GOT A FUCKING SCUM CHECK FROM SHETH

If Prob wasn't a DT, I'm sure he would have still thought Sheth was "null" and would have never made that case against him.


Then Prob makes useless assumptions, that both of you and Ceph are town. WHEN WE ARE AT FUCKING LYLO.
I fucking told him there are no confirmed townies (well, apart from BK at least), and he was so stubborn that he said "oh, you need to take some risks and find out who's town to weed out scum" or some shit.
Guess what? That risk will lose you the game because everybody is blatantly sheeping you! Thank you Prob!


For fucks sake, everybody thinks Prob's game is "so good", when it was actually shit.

Remember, HE GOT OUR FUCKING MEDIC LYNCHED.



AND YOU STILL SHEEP HIM. WITHOUT ANY OTHER REASONS.




Wait....


Nobody claimed RBed?



??? what?



Omg this is so fucking stupid lol
When Blurry flipped, SCUM KNEW THERE WAS A DT. And they didn't use their RB ability to try and block him? Are you kidding me? Scum must be so stupid, hahaa
Maybe they even forgot they had a RBer lol



Show nested quote +
On January 13 2012 16:06 Paperscraps wrote:I agree that this was all speculation, I will leave out wishy washy remarks in the future.


Right, so leaving them out in the future justifies you using them before.
/sarcasm


Show nested quote +
I was thinking that Cats was much more probable than Blurry first off.
After reading through Blurry's filter, he just seemed more inexperienced and more town.
Probulous also thinking Blurry being town weighed a lot with me, because probulous had good reads and analysis thus far.


Well, what a coincidence, you are sheeping Prob too.


Show nested quote +
I should have made it clear that the general census of the town leaning towards Blurry being innocent was swaying what I was thinking about him. I kept linking Blurry with Sheth. Blurry somewhat called Sheth out early on, but never followed up later. This was probably the main reason that I thought Blurry was scum. Prob and the rest of town convinced me otherwise. Even Cats started to convince me that Blurry was town.


??

Show nested quote +
I should have made it clear that the general census of the town leaning towards Blurry being innocent was swaying what I was thinking about him


lol

"Town was thinking that Blurry was town, therefore I should change my views against him because if I'm still suspicious of him I will look bad"

Show nested quote +
I was thinking that Cats is mafia, so if Blurry voted up Cats then that would mean that Blurry would indeed be town.


So you relied your analysis on Blurry on WIFOM?
Are you fucking kidding me?


Show nested quote +
Not just because of that, but also in general the town was swaying more towards Blurry being town. Blurry made a decent case against Cats. I didn't forget about Blurry being scum, but rather Blurry was lower on my list. I was thinking Cats would be a safer bet.


Again you are using the same "I was sheeping town" response?

You said "Even Cats started to convince me that Blurry was town", but you said "I didn't forget about Blurry being scum"?
What? He was on you "scum list" (albeit lower) but you were beginning to think he was town?


Show nested quote +
The constant change of opinions is due to getting caught up with the game, re-reading peoples filters and the general feeling of the town. Thinking he was Cats' scum buddy, was just hypothetical. I didn't ignore your case against Blurry. I just didn't find it very strong. I think the fact that Sheth and Blurry didn't talk much was due to Blurry being inexperienced plain and simple.


Show nested quote +
I don't know why I have to mention other peoples arguments against people, when I make my own. That is unreasonable.


Right, why would you even address an incriminating case against Blurry when you were thinking he was scum?
Oh yeah I know, so you could continue sheeping town and not look bad.


Show nested quote +
It is not so much that I am assuming people are town, but rather that I thought Cats and you were more probable to be scum than others at the time in such a situation.


You forgot to say that "we were more probable" when you blatantly said who would be scum when Prob died.


Show nested quote +
Pretty harsh thing to say. Making a case for someone being town is just as effective as making a case for someone being scum. Scum are the people that don't want others to know who town are.


Are you kidding me?

Are you really accusing me by defending Cookie's actions?




Show nested quote +
Gonzaw then proceeds to vote up CM. He doesn't provide any real evidence against CM.


??

Lol you didn't even bother reading my filter.
I don't have to give a detailed summary of why I think someone is scum dammit!
I already pressured Cookie, found his behaviour scummy, saw as he didn't respond and thought that was the best option.
You could have known that if you had read my filter


Show nested quote +
Gonzaws sticks with his vendetta against CM(AKCT), with no real evidence.


Thank you for ignoring my response to AKCT too!


Show nested quote +
Gonzaw is trying to cast suspicion on to Blurry. He knows that the mafia isn't going to use their role blocker, so that the town is at a disadvantage. This very reasoning lead us to the mis-lynch of Blurry. Oh the irony


What?

I was pressuring him because do you know how easy is for scum to say "Oh, if someone is RBed they should claim" "Oh, if you are a vet and you were hit you should claim" and dwell on that so they appear like they are contributing?



Show nested quote +
This is the same thing Sheth did. He gave a pep talk to Cats to not throw the game.


You mean the same thing Prob, your magestical messiah did.

Also, do you think it was wrong for me to do that?


You are just desperately going through my filter taking whatever you can to paint me suspicious.
But of course, what else can you do? From your "POV" I HAVE to be scum, right?


Show nested quote +
Gonzaw claims that Blurry's reasons for voting up CM(AKCT) are bad.


Yet, Gonzaw claims that Blurry's reason were part of the reasons why he voted up CM(AKCT).
Sounds like a contradiction to me.


HAHAHA


HAHAHAHA



OMG, this is so fucking terrible it's funny.

Way to use a strawman buddy.

lol

Show nested quote +
1-For previous reasons of certain players


That fucking means that the player that voted for CM/AKCT had previous reasons, not that the reasons of those players were the same as mine.


Really, there is no way that could be misunderstood.
Lol, but good try, scum using strawmans confuses other townies from making good reads, good try indeed.



Show nested quote +
Then, Gonzaw sheeps/bandwagons(whatever you want to call it) with Prob in the lynching of Sheth. He doesn't provide any analysis of Sheth and says he had a null reason of him up until this point. Of course we know now that Prob knew for a fact that Sheth was mafia, but at the time no one knew this. Then he just disappears and leaves his scum buddy to die, so he doesn't have to provide any reasoning to his vote.

Gonzaw gets angry that Cehpiro called him out for him voting up Sheth with no analysis, yet Gonzaw rebukes other players for doing the same thing. Gonzaw responds harshly saying that people shouldn't be suspicious of him just, because of some WIFOM Jitsu made


Omg, you are still dwelling on that?


IT WAS ALREADY FUCKING ADDRESSED

IF YOU HAD READ MY FILTER AND THE THREAD YOU WOULD HAVE KNOWN.

Let me repeat it for you if you don't remember:

I was away from town, I had no fucking internet access

What? Are you saying I lied?
Do you want me to send fucking pictures and witness reports (from my family) to prove you wrong? Because I can.



Show nested quote +
Gonzaw votes up Blurry for using his gut and WIFOM. Nothing substantial. Contradiction again.


Omg, more "misinterpretation"

DID YOU SEE THE PART WHERE I FOUND BLURRY WAS LYING?
ARE YOU IGNORING THAT ON PURPOSE?
ARE YOU IGNORING ALL THE OTHER REASONS I STATED ON N1?

Show nested quote +
This post is full of garbage. As other players have mentioned Blurry shouldn't have to be the only one to argue that he is town, others can argue it for him to avoid a mis-lynch. Mafia gains a clear advantage when no-body stands up for each other. Gonzaw is very aggressive and gives us some WIFOM against Blurry. Gonzaw is hypocritical here again, using WIFOM against Blurry, but when WIFOM is used against himself it can't be right.


Are you kidding me?

You are saying that a townie shouldn't defend himself?
If Blurry was scum, do you know how easy it would be for him to fucking forget about the game and let other townies defend him?

Are you seriously implying that just to make me suspicious?


Show nested quote +
Blurry told the truth the whole time. He admitted he was a weak player. Gonzaw says Blurry is playing the "newb card". Blurry was a newb. Gonzaw was trying hard to goad people into voting up for Blurry based on nothing really.


Right, because we knew that he was "telling the truth the whole time" at that point.

This is what you are doing:
-Gonzaw thought Blurry was scum because of X
-Blurry was X because he was town
-Therefore, gonzaw knew that Blurry was X because he was town, and therefore is scum


lol try harder.
You are sinking yourself deeper and deeper.

You are implying that when we scumhunt in the future, we don't take into account the "I'm a newb" responses, you are implying that we shouldn't let players defend themselves, and you are implying that we shouldn't pressure other players by the obvious statements they say.

Show nested quote +

Gonzaw doesn't even really defend himself here. He just curses a lot and says "you are twisting my words, stop it".


BECAUSE HE FUCKING WAS!!

What? You want me to make a 10 pages rebuttal of his terrible case?
His case is so fucking wrong it woudln't be too hard.


Show nested quote +
There is no reason to fake claim here. Probulous breadcrumbed in the beginning of the thread, if that isn't proof enough. Prob was spot on against Sheth. Gonzaw is pretty much the only person that against Prob right now. Gonz then posts this weird post above about WIFOM non-sense, something he is against.


What? There is no reason to fake-claim?
Are you fucking kidding me? IT'S FUCKING LYLO
IF HE FAKECLAIMS, AND THERE IS NO DT, THEN HE COULD HAVE SURVIVED D4 WITH HIS SCUMBUDDY AND WIN THE GAME

Are you fucking kidding me?
Also "Prob breadcrumbed in the beginning of the thread".
Do you think scum can't do that?

Even more, that breadcrumb was so "hidden", that scum can do it, but then never fakeclaim blue anyways, knowing the "breadcrumb" is so fucking hidden no other townie will ever find it.

And what WIFOM nonsense are you talking about?
Of course it's WIFOM, and it should be noted, BECAUSE YOU FUCKING GUYS JUST ASSUMED HE WAS TELLING THE TRUTH.

Show nested quote +
Nail in the coffin.


Right : rolleyes :

Are you kidding me?


Are you saying that Ver's Guide is wrong?
If someone acts in a way opposite of what Ver says in the guide, I find that evidence enough to be suspicious, because I trust most of what that guide says...


It's also why they even put links to those guides here in the first place!



Also, wow. I'm almost convinced both of you are teaming up on me.
Either you blatantly sheep Prob's aweful case against me without any reason whatsoever, or you just skimmed through my filter and used strawman, misinterpretation and just blatantly wrong statements to paint me suspicious.



Not only that, both of you are saying "You are fucking suspicious and I think you are scum, but hey, gonzaw is scum too, we could lynch him first"

Hey I can do that too!!

"Hey Cats', you are fucking suspicious and I think you are scum, but hey, Paper is scum too, we could lynch him first"

##Vote: Paperscraps




However, I'll still fucking check Cephiro, everybody's just assuming he's fucking confirmed townie by this point is not funny.
Although that's a very good reason to fucking continue tunneling me



Show nested quote +
On January 13 2012 22:35 Paperscraps wrote:Cats inconsistent play doesn't strike gonzaw as odd?
By gonzaw's logic, Cats and gonzaw's minimal and evasive communication should be something to note then.
Cats is all over the place with accusations and changes of heart.



Yes, his fucking inconsistent play strike me as odd, but his behaviour didn't.

At least at that point, now I know I was wrong.



Some points to be made about this hilarious post.
1. First off gonzaw is only being defensive and not offensive. I understand his back is against the wall, but you can't win unless you score a few points.
2. His responses to my posts are poor. He laughs at some of the points I make. He avoids some points all together. He uses a bunch of curse words. None of this tells me anything.

gonzaw wrote:
I don't have to give a detailed summary of why I think someone is scum dammit!


This is huge scum tell to me. Answers are in the details.

gonzaw wrote:
Are you saying that Ver's Guide is wrong?
If someone acts in a way opposite of what Ver says in the guide, I find that evidence enough to be suspicious, because I trust most of what that guide says...


You can't base your entire case on some guide! People are unpredictable!

Summary:
Both gonzaw and Cats are slipping now that the pressure is on. Both are making mistakes/contradictions. They are being evasive. Just look at how Cats is being so passive, yet he knows I am mafia! Where is the analysis! We are MYLO and he is dodging. gonzaw I am not worried about, it is plain as day that he is mafia.

I implore Cephiro and bkrow to let go of the fact that Probu liked Cats more than me. Probu has been wrong before. Probu never made a solid case against me. Probu didn't provide hardly any analysis on me at all. Don't let opinions of others decide the towns fate. Use logic. I want to see what YOU guys have to say!
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 14 2012 10:09 GMT
#937
##Unvote

##Vote CatsnHats

@Cephiro: Great logical analysis on CatsnHats. I am changing my vote to CatsnHats, because first off I think he is scum as well and secondly we have a split vote between the scum and need a majority on one of them.

@bkrow: Time to make up your mind on who to lynch! Pressure is on!

2 votes for Paperscraps

2 votes for CatsnHats

The age long battle!
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 14 2012 10:50 GMT
#938
@CatsnHats: Responses in bold.
On January 14 2012 15:12 CatsnHats wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 14 2012 14:31 Paperscraps wrote:

Summary:
Both gonzaw and Cats are slipping now that the pressure is on. Both are making mistakes/contradictions. They are being evasive. Just look at how Cats is being so passive, yet he knows I am mafia! Where is the analysis! We are MYLO and he is dodging. gonzaw I am not worried about, it is plain as day that he is mafia.

I implore Cephiro and bkrow to let go of the fact that Probu liked Cats more than me. Probu has been wrong before. Probu never made a solid case against me. Probu didn't provide hardly any analysis on me at all. Don't let opinions of others decide the towns fate. Use logic. I want to see what YOU guys have to say!


Seriously? You're saying I'm being passive and that I haven't posted analysis against you. Don't you remember the long argument I made against you? The one that started the bus for your lynch? The one I re-quoted on THE LAST PAGE? Please tell me you haven't forgotten about it that fast. I even posted our interactions after my analysis, where you poorly defended yourself and dug yourself a deeper hole. I not going to repost that on every page just so you can't say I haven't posted analysis against you. As for your new analysis against me, I answered it (below), and you agreed with me, saying I made good points. The other sentences you post don't really mean anything. Just because you call something filler doesn't make it filler, that was the crux of my argument that you later agreed in the same post.

I meant more recent analysis. You can stick to that old post if you want, but it doesn't seem to be convincing people any more. As for defending myself poorly, that is purely subjective and biased.

Anyone else notice the general hostile tone in this paragraph towards me? That is not going to help you Cats.


Show nested quote +
On January 14 2012 04:37 Paperscraps wrote:
On January 14 2012 02:13 CatsnHats wrote:
Paperscraps, you seem to think that it is important what order I think we should lynch you and Gonzaw. I did flip-flop from Gonzaw to you 1st, but it doesn't really matter either way. If you want to lynch your scumbuddy Gonzaw first, then by all means I'll be down to do it. You're both scum in my eyes.

This is an obvious deflection of attention from Cats' own self again. He doesn't provide a case against Gonzaw.

Your argument makes me shake my head because you came into the game late and I can almost guarantee that you only read my filter, not the posts from other people that surround mine.

So reading a filter is a bad thing? To answer your question, I did read mostly through your filter, but important posts I read through the thread to get the general context. What is your point here?

You say this: (Paperscraps says this, I moved this line for clarificiation of my point above.

"Cats has been posting a bunch of filler posts about Probu being awesome and sucking up to him pretty much.
Cats claims he "knew" that Prob was DT and that we "HAD" to lynch Sheth, but this is after the fact and doesn't mean anything. Cats is using Probu to dissuade others from thinking he is scum."

On January 13 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote:
Thanks Prob, you've been our MVP up until now. I knew you were DT because you said you HAD to lynch Sheth, even if you're arguments were irrational. I thought you had checked my N2 though, because you changed your opinion of me and I didn't think that was possible unless you had looked at me.


It's not sucking up because I said it when we all thought Probulous was going to die (himself included). This was like a goodbye post. For the record, Probulous is/was awesome. If we manage to win this, it will be because of him. That being said, I don't even think you read my post correctly. I didn't say "we HAD to lynch Sheth." I said Probulous HAD to lynch Sheth, even if he had to use irrational arguments to convince people. Why did I say that? Because I was quoting what Probulous said right here:

I didn't say that "you HAD to lynch Sheth". I said that it was impossible to prove that you knew these things at the time they came up. It is a goodbye post, but it doesn't bring anything useful to the table. Filler is filler.

On January 09 2012 10:09 Probulous wrote:
@Sheth, I hope that wasn't too bad! I know some of my arguments weren't exactly rational but I had to get you lynched.

Maybe chat after the game. Thanks for playing!


Hmmmm... why would someone push so hard to get a person lynched, even using irrational arguments? Because they are the DT. Come on Paperscraps, read the thread, not just filters.

Thanks for clarifying/justifying your thinking here, this is your first solid point in an otherwise useless post.


For CatsnHats:
Gonz goes from (slight town) to (null) to (very-pro town) to (suspicious) to (scum). Very minimal reasoning for all of these assertions.


As for my change of opinion on Gonzaw, why is that not allowed? Did you check the time stamps on those posts?

Slight-town: 7th
Null: 9th
Very-pro town: 9th (I had just checked his filter, and said he "played very pro town up to that point." That doesn't mean I am certain he is town. You even agreed he had because of the way he bussed Sheth. This is a town read in my eyes, but I'll leave it as very pro town for the sake of argument.)
Suspicious: 11th
Scum: 13th

I was just stating the stance communication between gonzaw and you. I will let others take away from that what they wish.

That is 2 days in between most of those posts. 2 days is ALOT of posts and opportunities to make reads, especially for someone like Gonzaw who hasn't made a glaring mistake to completely change town sentiment on him. The reason I kept changing was his relentless aggression and cursing in his defense of himself. It kept throwing me off. I think he is mafia now though, and if we lynch him and he flips red, it shouldn't matter that I thought he was town in the early game, when reads are so difficult to make.

Alright this is your second solid point. Vote up gonzaw then.

You are also getting on to me for my posting before the lynch and nightkill posts. You say they are filler. They may look like that now, but the hour before each of those events was a flurry of posting. If you think I'm scum because I posted a lot during the most stressful period of the game to date, then so be it.

This is a pretty blatant admission to being scum. Thanks for making so clear now. Stress cause people to do weird things. Like post rapidly perhaps or out of character.


On January 14 2012 02:19 CatsnHats wrote:
On January 13 2012 17:12 bkrow wrote:
I.e. if Paper flips red then we can assume Cats and Gonz are likely green and Ceph is the remaining scum;

If he flips green.. we lose? lol

The issue i have is that one of the above players could have just bussed a mafia buddy to throw us all off; but i doubt that much effort would have beeen put into an analytical post which has the chance of convincing the town on a lynch.

Well.. thoughts?


Why does Paper flipping red mean Gonz is green and Ceph is red? You said in the post before it that Ceph is a townie. I think Paper is bussing Gonz to save himself the next day and vice versa.

Just note Cats is using the same argument here against me and that I accuse him of. OMGUS He doesn't provide any analysis to back it up.

My responses are bolded.

Don't give up the pressure on Cats town! He hasn't provided any analysis. He said he would make a post about gonzaw, where is it? We have him grasping at straws.

@bkrow: I am also curious about your reasoning, that if I flipped red that would make Cephiro scum? please clarify this.

@Cephiro: Looking forward to your actual analysis. Not like this mostly filler post by Cats.



This last part of his argument is my favorite. I ask bkrow why Paper flipping red means Gonz is green and Ceph is red, because I think they (Paper and Gonz) are bussing against one another to gain town cred. Paper tries to shoot holes in my question with some BS about OMGUS, and then three lines down........ he asks bkrow the same question I did. LOL

That is a legitimate question to ask bkrow, because it doesn't make any sense why Ceph would be scum if I flipped red, because gonzaw is obviously scum.

I wasn't shooting holes in your question. I had the same question as you. I was shooting holes in your statement, " I think Paper is bussing Gonz to save himself the next day and vice versa." This is what is OMGUS. I accused you of bussing gonz to save yourself.


And Gonzaw doesn't require a full written out argument with an image macro and multiple quotes to convince people he's mafia. Just look at basically any post he has made since Sheth was lynched. He's overly defensive, using cursing, rhetorical questions, and anger to cover up for the fact that he has contributed NOTHING except for beginning the bus for Blurry, our medic. I'm sure he'll quote this paragraph and answer with something along the lines of, " OH YOU'RE SO FUCKING RIGHT CATS /sarcasm" He's scum, plain and simple.

You say previously you will post something on gonzaw, now you don't think that is necessary. Interesting...

This is why Paperscraps is dangerous. He writes blatantly wrong things, and since he doesn't act like Gonzaw, he might actually put doubt in your heads as to whether I'm town or scum. He needs to be put down.

What things do I write that are blatantly wrong? That is a vague statement. How can things that are so apparently wrong put doubt in peoples heads? That statement is a contradiction.

##Vote: Paperscraps

How's that for being passive?

Haha, you seem a bit angry there bud. Not without just cause though. I would be angry with such compelling arguments against me.
[/b]
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 14 2012 10:57 GMT
#939
I've also been pondering some things.

@CatsnHats:
Question: Does it strike you as odd that Cephiro voted you up instead of gonzaw?

Cephiro and gonzaw are still a possibility for mafia, even though it is slim.

@Cephiro:
I think you are town. However you can't be 100% certain that I am town and I can't be 100% certain you are either. Just making sure we cover all possibilities.

I am very interested in your take on gonzaw.

Question: Would you be willing to lynch gonzaw instead of CatsnHats?

In the off-chance you are mafia, you are very devious haha. I can't find anything in your filter to suggest you are scum though.
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 14 2012 11:03 GMT
#940
EBWOP:@Cephiro: I know you think gonzaw is scum and have provided good evidence against him in the post on Cats. What I meant by "I am very interested in your take on gonzaw." is "I am very interested in your more focused analysis on gonzaw."
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 14 2012 12:07 GMT
#942
On January 14 2012 20:20 Cephiro wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 14 2012 19:57 Paperscraps wrote:
I've also been pondering some things.

@CatsnHats:
Question: Does it strike you as odd that Cephiro voted you up instead of gonzaw?

Cephiro and gonzaw are still a possibility for mafia, even though it is slim.

@Cephiro:
I think you are town. However you can't be 100% certain that I am town and I can't be 100% certain you are either. Just making sure we cover all possibilities.

I am very interested in your take on gonzaw.

Question: Would you be willing to lynch gonzaw instead of CatsnHats?

In the off-chance you are mafia, you are very devious haha. I can't find anything in your filter to suggest you are scum though.


I am working on the gonzaw case at the moment, but it will take me a while before I post it. You should expect to see the first part in less than three hours or so though.

It's good that you are keeping your mind open, even though I think it's starting to get quite clear that Cats and Gonzaw are the two mafia. Or at least that's my opinion, it makes perfect sense as multiple times proven in my analysis on Cats.

I am willing to lynch Gonzaw as well, since at the moment I am very confident on both of my reads. But at the moment my read is stronger on Cats, and I would like to see him hanged for his devious tricks.

You are not off the hook either, but after reading your filter multiple times, I just can't find nowhere near as many scum tells as in Gonzaw's and Cats's. Your play looks much more pro-town to me than Cats, but Gonzaw is a damn tricky case indeed.

But yeah, in my opinion we lynch Cats, then Gonzaw. Both will do.


WIFOM: The only reason I had any suspicion of the possibility that gonzaw and you might be the last two mafia was because you were delayed in making a case solely against gonzaw and pushing Cats. I was thinking you were going to make a case against gonzaw first, because he seems more scummy to me than Cats, but not by much. If by some miracle Cats was innocent, however unlikely, then switching gears to get Cats lynched instead gonzaw would cause the town to lose.

I think this is very unlikely.

I am over thinking things. I agree with you. It is clear that Cats and gonzaw are the last two mafia.

I am glad to see the town is heading in the right direction.

All we need now is for bkrow to wake up!
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 14 2012 17:27 GMT
#945
I have less than 3 before I leave for work and won't be back before the deadline. I would like to what hear bkrow has to say though before I go.

I won't be able to change my vote to gonzaw if compelling evidence or a defense was made by anyone. (hint hint CatsnHats)

@CatsnHats: You really aren't helping yourself by changing your vote here. Also stop making blanket statements that Cephiro and I are wrong without providing proof/analysis. You are always saying, "I will answer such and such later" or "I will make an argument later". None of this is helping you. It is doing the opposite, it is hurting you. Also seems like you are throwing in the towel again. You do have one thing going for you though, being consistent in your inconsistency.

Cats I am giving you a bit of a reprieve here to prove yourself or something before we send you to the gallows. Find some holes in Cephiro or Me! Do something. The more information you give me the better. I haven't completely given up that Cephiro and gonzaw could be the last mafia. This is unlikely in light of all the evidence against you. Evidence in which Cephiro and I took the time to post with actual analysis. I can't justify a change without if you keep playing like this.
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 14 2012 17:37 GMT
#947
EBWOP: I am taking a risk here, by giving you this little pep-talk Cats. It could make me look bad in Ceph's and bkrow's eyes. I am willing to risk it though if you can prove to me that Ceph is mafia, with analysis.

No one can be completely trusted here at the end.

Ceph has claimed to be great at mind games and could have been letting us duke it out and side with the player who made the better case against the other, which I think is me of course. Essentially letting town kill itself. Overall I think this very unlikely, but I would like to cover all bases.
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 14 2012 17:50 GMT
#948
@gonzaw: I haven't forgotten that Cats and Ceph could be the last mafia as well. I think this possibility is very small. I am not going to feel bad either if town loses because of this. You have only made the situation worse with all of your laughable posts as of recent.

I will give you same ultimatum I have given Cats. Prove to me with non-rage induced analysis that Cats and Ceph are cohorts. Go on the offensive for once!
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 14 2012 19:30 GMT
#954
I am going to humor you gonzaw. Remarks in bold.
On January 15 2012 03:40 gonzaw wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 14 2012 14:31 Paperscraps wrote:gonzaw's response to my argument against him was kind of hilarious. He is digging his own grave at the moment.


Right:

"Wow, he made a good response, and found the flaws on my post and the reasons for it, what should I do?"
"I know, I'll say his post is hilarious and never address it, that will be okay".

I can't address the points you made that are outlandish and wrong. We need to get away from this circular argumentaion.

How do I address something like this?
Show nested quote +
gonzaw wrote:
HAHAHA


HAHAHAHA



OMG, this is so fucking terrible it's funny.

Way to use a strawman buddy.

lol


or this?
Show nested quote +
gonzaw wrote:
Either you blatantly sheep Prob's aweful case against me without any reason whatsoever, or you just skimmed through my filter and used strawman, misinterpretation and just blatantly wrong statements to paint me suspicious.


Show nested quote +
Some points to be made about this hilarious post.
1. First off gonzaw is only being defensive and not offensive. I understand his back is against the wall, but you can't win unless you score a few points.


What about me fucking saying you are scum is not offensive?

There is a big difference between arguing against some one with analysis on their filter and your obvious OMGUS retaliation.


I can basicly prove you are scum by your behaviour this day. It's so transparent you are scum it's not funny, and I'm sure BK will see that too.

Okay then lets see you do it!

Show nested quote +
2. His responses to my posts are poor. He laughs at some of the points I make. He avoids some points all together. He uses a bunch of curse words. None of this tells me anything.



Wow, the contradiction is so bad it hurts...

You say I avoid "some points altogether".


Guess what? YOU ARE AVOIDING ALL OF MY POINTS ALTOGETHER TOO.

You are saying my responses are "poor", but you don't even address them, good job!

I already answered this above. Repeating the same point over and over doesn't make it more right.


Show nested quote +
This is huge scum tell to me. Answers are in the details.


Just because I don't post about the "details" doesn't mean I don't take them into account.
Strawman!

Can I read your mind? No. Then there is no way for me know if you are paying attention to detail if don't post analysis.

Show nested quote +
You can't base your entire case on some guide! People are unpredictable!


Then can you tell me why the flying fuck they put the links to those guides here in the first place?

To help us?...

Show nested quote +
Summary:
Both gonzaw and Cats are slipping now that the pressure is on. Both are making mistakes/contradictions. They are being evasive. Just look at how Cats is being so passive, yet he knows I am mafia! Where is the analysis! We are MYLO and he is dodging. gonzaw I am not worried about, it is plain as day that he is mafia


No, you are making mistakes/contradictions, and cats is slipping under the pressure.

Okay what are they?

Also, we are at LYLO not MYLO for fucks sake, learn the difference.

Thanks, I know the difference know after looking on the mafia wiki thing. This is my first game, forgive me for not knowing all the acronyms like the back of my hand.

Show nested quote +
On January 15 2012 02:50 Paperscraps wrote:
@gonzaw: I haven't forgotten that Cats and Ceph could be the last mafia as well. I think this possibility is very small. I am not going to feel bad either if town loses because of this. You have only made the situation worse with all of your laughable posts as of recent.

I will give you same ultimatum I have given Cats. Prove to me with non-rage induced analysis that Cats and Ceph are cohorts. Go on the offensive for once!



lol, you want me to "prove" that the other players, who are not you are mafia.

You see, that's impossible, since you are mafia.

No, one can be certain of anything. The end here is coming down to what is most probable. Also it must be possible since I am town. Saying "I am town" doesn't hold much weight. The same thing goes with saying "you are mafia", without proper analysis to back it up.

Show nested quote +
That leaves me with convincing Cephiro and bkrow that I am town and CatsnHats is scum.


Wow, so previously you were convinced that both me and cats were scum, and now you are saying "Oh people, I know this is WIFOM, but what if Cephiro is scum? HMM?".

This is a viable concern, if you can't see the logic in that then I don't know what to say to you

What's with this sudden change of mind?

Oh I know, you are just sheeping my previous suggestion. You are trying to create chaos and confusion. There are like 6-7 hours remaining before the day ends, and now you want others to "prove" Cephiro is scum instead of doing it at the beginning of the day, or when that giant popcorn row started?

I posted my thoughts for my concerns in the posts previous. Having a change of mind and having a concern is different.

lol nice try, you know that will basicly end discussion until the day is over.



Show nested quote +
On January 14 2012 05:19 CatsnHats wrote:I provided the Paperscraps case, but I haven't done a full blown Gonzaw case yet. I don't know if a full blown case is needed on him though. We have Prob and Jitsu suspecting him, and now they're both gone. That counts for something. I still post something about Gonz later though. As for who is more dangerous, I kinda think Paperscraps is. I don't think Gonzaw is capable of defending himself well other than cursing and rhetorical questioning, Paperscraps is beginning to be more active (although I don't think his arguments are that great). I could see Paperscraps convincing you and bkrow that he is just a newbie though, and that scares me. That being said, I'm fine with voting off either, because I think both are mafia. What do think Ceph?



Wtf?

You haven't responded to my posts yet.

You haven't even stated a single reason of why you think I'm scum, you are just sheeping on Prob, and you continue doing it .


Holy scum batman!


I want Paper lynched so his logical fallacies and contradictions are finally over, and it will be fairly easy to hang cats afterwards.

But I don't mind hanging cats on this day, at least to avoid NL.




Also, I'm eager to wait for Cephiro's "case" against me, I'm sure it will be as shitty as Prob's and Paper's.

Yeah, because Probu wasn't acting in the best interest of the town. His arguments must be bads. Purely subjective nonsense.

"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
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