EPTMafia is always a good time.
Newbie Mini Mafia II
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Paperscraps
United States639 Posts
Mafia is always a good time. | ||
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Paperscraps
United States639 Posts
Glad to be here. I have been "semi" keeping up with the thread, but I will need to read through the filters to get a better read on people. I definitely plan on being more active than my predecessor.  I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow. | ||
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Paperscraps
United States639 Posts
Ok onto reads and analysis. Blurry Scum 1. + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote: Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. Either Blurry is trying to bus his mafia buddy, to alleviate further pressure from himself or has great gut instincts. I am leaning more toward the former, but he did make somewhat of a case about Sheth just pressuring and not weeding out scum. Read through his filter, something just doesn't feel right about him. I am interested in what his response will be. Xeris (Kron) Null Not much to say about Xeris (Kron) atm. Better to focus attention on other more active players until the need arises. Lurking is tricky and Kron might just be following the role already laid out before him, but that will only last for so long. I honestly think both players are/were inactive and not playing the game at all. If anything though is leads to a slightly scummy read. Note: I guess the same case could be made about me, but I hope to post more frequently and provide real analysis and reads. I am new to Mafia via forums though, so I will have to find the groove here. CatsNHats Town Either inexperienced town or smart scum. In his first post he said he never played before, so that leads to believe he is just an inexperienced townie. No real reason to lie on your first post, unless you just want to troll the whole game, but I guess I would want to see the good in people not the bad. He has posted a bunch of wishy-washy banter and defeatist attitude. Again either noob town or smart scum. Still leaning more towards noob Jitsu, Probulous and Cephiro Town. It will be interesting to see who the mafia kills, I think after tonight we will be able to get a better read on the mafia. | ||
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Paperscraps
United States639 Posts
On January 10 2012 09:54 Probulous wrote: Or he is simply sheeping. I don't see why if he was buddies with Sheth he would jump on the Sheth wagon so quickly when Cats was being pushed so hard. Essentially this comes down to WIFOM and the fact that he questioned Sheth early and voted for him early leads to place more credit in him than the others. Can you explain what you think that something is? Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy. Well you are posting which is a great improvment over Gretorp. The problem I have with your case here is that you are being inconsistent. You say Blurry is scummy because he "might" have been bussing Sheth but Xeris is not even though Sheth was buddying up to him? Which is more likely, Sheth was trying to protect his scum buddy or Blurry was bussing his scum buddy for town cred? To me it makes more sense for Sheth to try and protect Xeris as long as possible, and it makes no sense for Blurry to jump on Sheth's wagon before it even got started. Why do you give Xeris more credit than Blurry? I agree with your analysis here Prob. I just think Xeris (Kron) is a non-issue at the moment due to inactivity. That is the main reason why I think Blurry>Xeris in the scum department. Also Sheth could be buddy-buddy with Xeris, just to get us to do a mis-lynch. That could be anyone of the lurkers too. You either forgive everyone for being newb or hold people to equal standards. Why does Cats get special treatment? I see that my reasoning is definitely flawed here. I will re-read Cats filter.  If mafia is not stupid (clearly they aren't) they kill either myself, Cephiro or Jitsu. That is obvious, what info does that give us?You are right this doesn't bring anything new to the table, other than showing you where I stand. I will do better in the future to be more objective. My answers are underlined. Prob: What is your read on Cats right now? Who are you thinking are scummy? | ||
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Paperscraps
United States639 Posts
I am still leaning toward scum on Blurry as well. We should deal with Cats first though and do Jitsu some justice. | ||
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United States639 Posts
On January 10 2012 10:33 Probulous wrote: I do, hence " It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats. " But either way we have to decide on a single lynch, which for me is deciding between these two scenarios. @Prob: I am leaning toward your first option of scum silencing Jitsu, because of his suspicion of Cats. I still don't have a clear read on Gonz. | ||
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United States639 Posts
On January 10 2012 10:54 Probulous wrote: Yes, Blurry votes when I ask him to, with no hesitation at all. He could have simply stuck with his read that Cats was scum until it became obvious Sheth was being lynched. I don't think he is clearly town, just more town than Cats. It is possible that he is mafia but if so that is one hell of a bus. If I recall correctly he was the second person to vote for Sheth. Remember I had pushed Cephiro's case day 1 and failed, why would he assume I would succeed day 2? As mafia, it would have been a much safer play to just wait it out. See if the wagon starts to pick gain even a single vote and then jump. In addition to all this he was one of a handful of people who pointed out Sheth's mistakes in the very early game. Why do this if you are mafia? He plan has been to lurk, calling out your buddies is not lurking. Sure he didn't push the case hard but he definitely made one. We have very little to work on with Blurry but what we have seems more likely to be town than mafia. Either he is one hell of a mafia player, subtly bussing his team mate to gain town credit despite lurking, or he is simply a town lurker. See above. Given Jitsu's suspicions I would place Cats as scum. It fits with his back and forth with Sheth. Sheth called him out on a simple mistake (wishy-washy)and instead of changing his play like a townie would, he kept going. Sheth than backed off when he realised he was casting geniune suspicion on his team-mate. He only voted for Sheth after Sheth told him to and has been all round terrible. His "leaving" post caused confusion and he claims it was a gambit. In general he has been nuisance to town so I would not be sad to see him leave. @Prob: Yeah I can agree with all of this. Right now Cats>Blurry, due to the death of Jitsu and re-reading the filters of Jitsu, Cats and Sheth. I'll be back in about 6 hours to see where this goes and see what people's defenses are going to be. | ||
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United States639 Posts
On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote: Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though. 1.Xeris is just a hunch, but really a non-factor as long as long as you are still alive. I had to post something to show I was active. It takes time to get caught up, and re-reading filters definitely reveals more and more as time goes on. Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy. 2.I still am not quite sure about Blurry, he hasn't really done anything to justify himself as of yet. Also your sudden change of heart about him isn't helping that either, because you are the scummiest read town has at the moment. Paper claims that: "Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy." Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player. 3.This is what I was referring to. Blurry is clearly is leaning towards town on Sheth. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote: 2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter. With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry. Because of all of this reasoning above: ##Unvote: Blurry ##Vote: Paperscraps I look forward to your response Paperscraps. And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED. 4.Basically this all sums up to a redirection or deflection of scrutiny that is on you Cats and Blurry. I am positive that Cats in scum now, because he is scared that I suspect him of it and now gives some pretty trivial/wrong accusations against me. Sounds like he is getting desperate. This also further makes Blurry look bad. All of a sudden Blurry is clean in your eyes? or maybe he is your scum buddy! I am guessing that latter. I bet this was your plan for the whole day to vote up Blurry, then have some sudden revelation and vote up a townie who isn't even responsible for half of his time in the game yet. ##Vote: CatsNHats | ||
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Paperscraps
United States639 Posts
On January 11 2012 13:05 Probulous wrote: Finally when I took a step back I realised the reason we have been targeting Cats is because he has been active. He has been constantly changing his mind and his interactions with Sheth make him look really bad. Like I have said before there is plenty of evidence for him being scum. That very point illustrates why I am concerned about his lynch. I would feel bad as well if he was town, I had this concern earlier on as well. More and more I seem to be leaning towards scum on Cats. He has been back and forth and changing his mind constantly. A pretty strong tell for scum. If anything odds are in our favor with this lynch. Ceph and Prob strong town. Bk and Gonz slight town. Xeris is a non-factor for now. Blurry slightly scummy(this depending on the current lynch of Cats). Cats strong scum read. That leaves me as well, but I don't really know how the majority read me yet. Blurry voting up Cats could be his redemption though. The others have got away with posting nothing. If scum avoids the noose because a new townie posts a lot of stuff that looks scummy, I will feel real bad. He is clearly serious about playing. His posting is improving, the purpose of this game is help newbies get better. I am not saying I won't lynch Cats, I am just trying to look elsewhere. I wouldn't feel bad either Prob, you didn't start this wagon! | ||
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Paperscraps
United States639 Posts
On January 11 2012 13:26 CatsnHats wrote: Overall this is a poor rebuttal Paperscraps. My answers are bolded and underlined. 1. I don't really get how posting my initial feel and stance on the town leads to you thinking I am scum. I posted, because I didn't want people to think they had another lurker/inactive ruining the game for them. 2. As for your analysis of Blurry: On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:Probulous you probably weren't expecting this, but I'm about to change up my read. The more I read Blurry's thread, and I've read through it multiple times now, the more I think he is just a lurker newb not sure how to contribute. Even when he sheeped against me so hard recently, he admitted that he was doing it immediately. He was the 2nd person to vote for Sheth (and he had a surprisingly good read on him for posting so little). And the WIFOM posts I called him out on earlier make more sense in light of the fact that he says he has been using his gut alot since he feels his analysis isn't up to par. Your gut is the only way to make a decision about a WIFOM situation. I feel like I can read newb play, being that I was/still am one, and Blurry definitely strikes me as a lurker newb town now. Thats being said, he still needs to post more. I can actually agree with this. I wish he would post more. He has you pegged as scum, so that makes him a little less noob though, haha. 3. Blurry does call out Sheth. I skipped over that because he does it in a shy way though and never follows through with analysis. 4. I had suspicion of you long before you voted me up, this isn't retaliation or OMGUS. I don't know what WIFOM hypothetical you are talking about either. + Show Spoiler + On January 11 2012 13:04 CatsnHats wrote: @Cephiro I included Gretorp in my analysis of Paperscraps because they are the same person. I would be remiss to leave out my opinion on Gretorp and just analyze Paperscraps, that would just be throwing away half of the available information we have on him/them. What are the things that you mentioned you did? Have you already analyzed Paperscraps? If so I missed it and apologize for that. Can you requote it to me? Also, you say Prob asked for my case on Blurry and that I didn't write it. But I did, it's at the top of my post on Paperscraps. I came up with the same conclusion that Prob did about Blurry (town for now), but with separate analysis from him. I've been taking Prob for granted up to an extent, but remember I did ask the town if we were following him too blindly. I have an overwhelming gut feeling that Prob is town. With the sheer amount of posting he done (like 8 of the 36 pages), he is either a really good town or the most ballsy scum ever. I think it's the former. I like the sucking up to Ceph here. Apologizing definitely isn't a scum tell at all. /endsarcasm | ||
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Paperscraps
United States639 Posts
On January 11 2012 13:48 Probulous wrote: I'll preface this with "I know this is a stupid idea but" I kind of want to lynch kronhjort just to get rid of that stupid lurking role. It is really fucking over town now. I have a scum read on Xeris which cannot be corroborated because kronhjort doesn't post. I mean the reasons we have for Cats could describe Xeris as well. His posting never took a stand on anything and he had some sort of connection with Sheth. I am almost certain that either Xeris/kronhjort or Gretorp/Paperscraps is mafia and I can't tell because one of them has been inactive for most of the game. Ceph, your game has picked up dramatically and if you can't see that Cats' is doing similar things, I am disappointed. Just look at his rebuttal of Paperscraps' case. Gonz is almost certainly town although he cannon-ball style posting makes it hard to get any real information from him. Blurry is useless but doesn't seem like scum to me. In short my brain is hurting and I don't feel like I am getting any closer to making a decision. If worst comes to worst and we can't get a majority on Cats, then I wouldn't be against lynching Xeris(Kron). If you are sure that Xeris or I are mafia, then I am sure that it is him. This would help my case towards being town and we would be one less inactive.Lynching Cats or Xeris is win-win for me. | ||
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United States639 Posts
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On January 11 2012 14:11 bkrow wrote: In my short time playing this game i learnt it is not worth it to waste a lynch on someone that is likely to get modkilled. It isn't worth the peace of mind since if his inactivity continues, greymist will do the deed for us :p Ok i feel like this is devolving into YOU ACCUSED ME, SO NOW I AM GOING TO ACCUSE YOU! So this may seem like old/obvious information, but i feel like it will put us on track Player List AnxiousHippo Replaced by bkrow Cephiro Xeris Replaced by Kronhjort Gretorp Replaced by Paperscraps Gonzaw Blurry Probulous CatsnHats So basically from the above list there are 8 players left in the game. From that list we have 2 mafia remaining after the lynch on Sheth. That means we have 25% chance to lynch correctly based off ZERO reads or analyses. If we use common assumptions and reads into it (without personal bias) we have the following; Player List AnxiousHippo Replaced by bkrow Cephiro (town vibe) Xeris Replaced by Kronhjort Gretorp Replaced by Paperscraps Gonzaw (probably town) Blurry Probulous (probably town) CatsnHats That means there are 2 mafia in a remaining 5 players; that is a 40% chance to lynch correctly. If we factor in personal bias i.e. i know that i am town, it increases to a 50% chance to lynch correctly. So from Kronhjort Paperscraps Blurry CatsnHats 2 are most likely mafia, from my perception of the game so far, and 2 are most likely town. If we minus Kronhjort for being a lame ass nonposterino we get left with 3 people. If Kron is mafia, we have a 1/3 chance. So now it is time to compare the cases for Paperscraps, Blurry and CatsnHats - ONE OF YOU WILL BE LYNCHED, THE QUESTION IS WHICH ONE? Case against CatsinHats: 1 2 3 Case against Paperscraps 1 Case against Blurry 1 I am suggest to everyone, as i will be doing myself, to read very carefully through these posts before the deadline and come to a majority decision to ensure a lynch. I agree that lynching Xeris is stupid, but I would rather lynch him that lynch nobody at all. This is all fine and dandy Bk, but you have to form an opinion of your own! Post like these don't add anything we don't already know. Who are you leaning towards? Where do you stand? Also, you aren't out of the picture as well.  | ||
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Paperscraps
United States639 Posts
On January 11 2012 14:23 Probulous wrote: STUPIDITY! Just kidding. Voting tally so far CatsnHats (3) - Blurry, Paperscraps, Cephiro Blurry (1) - Gonzaw Paperscraps (1) - CatsnHats If I had to make up mind right this instant I would lynch Paperscraps but I am not going to place my vote down yet because I am nowhere near certain of that. I will reread the thread and everyone's analysis again before making up my mind. We still have time. Any reasoning behind why you would lynch me? I am curious how you are most certain of me than Cats. | ||
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Paperscraps
United States639 Posts
On January 11 2012 14:37 Probulous wrote: This is the reason you are alright voting for Xeris Nothing about his play just that because I think one of you two are scum. I never said I was sure he was scum. You don't say you think he is scum, or have any reason to vote for him but you are adamant that only Cats or Xeris will get your vote What happened to Blurry? I know you changed position on him but at least you had a case for voting against him. You attack Cats on being wishy-washy but this is blatant bandwagoning. You see an opportunity to get either Xeris or Cats voted off and save your hide so you jump at it with no reasoning behind your stance. Pick up your game. I don't claim to know anything about Xeris, but one thing I do know is that I am not scum. Also you said this Prob On January 11 2012 13:48 Probulous wrote: I am almost certain that either Xeris/kronhjort or Gretorp/Paperscraps is mafia and I can't tell because one of them has been inactive for most of the game. Also I don't see how I was jumping on the Cats bandwagon? I posted my thoughts of him being scum(largely in part due to Jitsu getting killed and his supscions), before he was even voted up. So no bandwagon here. Also the whole thing with voting up Xeris, was just saying that I would rather lynch him than have a no-lynch. Not bandwagon either. | ||
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United States639 Posts
On January 11 2012 14:47 bkrow wrote: 1) I am trying to form an opinion based on reading through peoples posts, just because i don't cut and paste an image macro and insta-vote someone doesn't mean i don't have an opinion - you are my number 1 target based on Gretorp's earlier posts but i am trying to read what you are saying and see if it still fits with how i feel about you 2) I am not too sold on anyone else; that main analysis for people seems to be that someone is "wishy-washy" or "sheeping" neither of which i feel are solid indicators of anything, particularly in a newbie game; there needs to be more than that for me. 3) I like gonz's post about players that avoid conversation between each other and feel that deserves a closer look. 4) Posts like these do add something; a focus for the town. The last few pages was --> Blurry accuses Cats, Cats accuses Blurry, Someone accuses you, you accuse someone (haven't checked the exact order of events); i think the post i made at least provides the town (the majority) with a key focus point on 3 main targets (i know i am town, believe what you want based on my posts) @Bk 1.Understandable to feel that way about me. Gretorp didn't leave me in a great spot. I am trying to redeem myself though and be active. 2.Yeah I agree that the analysis isn't great, but you can't expect too much from a nooby game haha. We are all learning. 3.Yeah I am liking gonz more and more now. He is direct and concise. Sometimes he gets a bit heated, but his heart is in the right place. I am doing my best to answer to everyone addressing me. Everyone as a whole needs to start calling people out for avoiding. (We have been with Blurry alteast) 4.Competent players should be doing this though anyways. We all have a general feel or who is going to be on the chopping block tomorrow. Honestly though we should just narrow it down to Cats or Me if Blurry stays inactive. I believe you are town as well, I just wanted to see a bit of analysis or opinion. We have to work with what we've got. | ||
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United States639 Posts
On January 11 2012 14:58 Probulous wrote: You seem to be willing to vote for anyone who has half a case on them. My point is simple, you put effort into your case against Blurry than dropped it in favour of Xeris based on my post. I never said you were jumping on the Cats wagon, I simply want to know what makes Xeris so suspicious in your eyes that you are only willing to vote for him? You have presented no reasoning why he deserves your vote other than trying to save your own hide. That is not a reason to lynch someone, you lynch them because you believe they are scum. I have my reason for believing that either you or Xeris are scum but you have not presented yours. Why do you think Xeris is scum? Ok lets say we know that for 100% certain that either I or Xeris is mafia. Due to inactivity on Xeris' part I can't provide analysis on his posts. I know my role though, which is town. Thus that leads me to believe that Xeris would be mafia right? I am not saying that he is, because we can't be certain at this juncture. But if it were up to just me or him. Then it would have to be him. I hope that makes sense. | ||
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On January 11 2012 14:55 CatsnHats wrote: Really? I know apologizing can be a scum-tell but I actually missed/misunderstood what he was referring too, apologized for it, and he cleared it up. You're reaching. And of course lynching the lurker or me would be best for you, because neither of them are YOU. And that doesn't help your case towards being town. Alot of the grunt work analysis done on me was before you entered the game and I picked up my play, you have no claim to it other than bandwagon. And lynching a lurker gets no one town cred. 1. You agree that it is a scum-tell. I don't really think I am reaching then. I think you just made my case for me. Can't be reaching if you agree with it, haha. 2. Lynching the lurker is a non-issue anymore. Lynching you would be beneficial to me, because it is not me. More importantly though, because I am pretty certain you are scum. I can admit to joining a bandwagon against you. I mean truth is truth. Would you not vote me up, just because you thought you were joining a bandwagon? I don't think so. I voted you up, because people have made good cases against you and it is the most logical choice right now. | ||
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Paperscraps
United States639 Posts
First off let us look at the cases presented against Cats and I: Paperscraps: 1. Sheeping (via Cats) 2. Bandwagon (via Cats) vs Cats: 1. Sheeping (via Blurry) 2. Bandwagon (via Blurry) 3. Wishy-washy play (via Everyone) 4. Rapidly changing play-styles (Obvious) 5. Apologetic (via Paperscraps) 6. Sudden change of heart to not offend others. (via Blurry, Paperscraps, Ceph) Secondly: Cats only answered part of my Post here. Obvious dodge. On January 11 2012 14:55 CatsnHats wrote: Really? I know apologizing can be a scum-tell but I actually missed/misunderstood what he was referring too, apologized for it, and he cleared it up. You're reaching. And of course lynching the lurker or me would be best for you, because neither of them are YOU. And that doesn't help your case towards being town. Alot of the grunt work analysis done on me was before you entered the game and I picked up my play, you have no claim to it other than bandwagon. And lynching a lurker gets no one town cred. Lastly: On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote: Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter. Even after Jitsu is killed and confirmed townie, he calls him "suspected"? Sounds pretty scummy to me. Then he comments on my filter being small, which wasn't in my control at the time, being a replacement and all. I can't be held accountable for joining mid-game. Another scummy thing to stay. Good luck hunting scum today town. May the best man win! | ||
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Seems like Cats and Prob or Gonz are mafia. Will be interesting to see who they target tonight. If Prob dies, then it is Cats and Gonz If Gonz dies, then it is Cats and Prob If I die, which I won't think will happen due to people being suspicious of me, then I don't know who the last mafia is. | ||
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