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/in right now since I don't know when the next normal game is supposed to start. After the last game I told myself to not join another newby-game and wanted to join a big game. However those turn out to be quite complicated (just look at all those roles ) so I might want to join this if this turns out to be okayish.
The next normal mafia is going to start after texas mafia anyways, which hasn't started yet, so I should be fine joining this and afterwards the normal mafia game, since it's probably not going to start before this ended, right?
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On October 25 2011 16:59 Zanfada wrote: /in i want to win this one
On October 25 2011 18:58 Ciryandor wrote: /in
I'm going to get my ass killed in day 1 again, no doubt about that.
At least two people who actually played the last game. And as long as ciry gets killed on day 1 I'm alive on day 2. And if you don't get killed on day 1 I'm going to get you lynched because your obviously scum! :p Just kidding, but it's going to be awesome to know a couple of people and how they play.
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I'd say the last game was half a game tops, which makes him 2,5! :p
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On October 28 2011 06:44 GMarshal wrote:Show nested quote +On October 28 2011 03:43 Skrammen wrote: Hey, I'd like to participate in this. Only got a single game under my belt, so im quite the noob :p Show nested quote +On October 28 2011 06:07 Drem903 wrote: /in No experience at all playing mafia, so hopefully i don't screw this up for anyone *broohoofs all around* Just because I know it makes kita uncomfortable :-P heyheyhey, I'm a fan too I'm just not posting that much our tl-pony-thread.
Also, holy fuck this game filled up fast.
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yeah wrote a pm that I'll join that QT once I died, as well
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oh btw: My father got 60 today so maaaaybe I'm not going to post a hell lot tomorrow since there's going to be a party, but other than that I'm fine. Just don't get a fucking billion votes on me like last game becaue I'm not posting that much on day1 (that is day 1 in realtime!). Don't know why, but hosts somehow know when to not start a game , happened last game, too :p
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As mentioned 2 pages earlier, my father turned 60 yesterday and I obviously had to stay at the party. Now I'm kinda back! Sooooo guyses, lets get talking. I like the fact that zanfada is posting this game. Last game there was very little until lylo, which was too late so that's awesome.
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oh and just a hint since this is a beginners game: If you are a dt or medic don't just hide or something. First of all, that really gives you away for mafia and secondly we might end up killing our very own dt or medic because we went for a lurker who turned out to be a blue playing "let's not get any attention or I'm going to get killed by mafia". Unless your coach told you otherwise. In that case just tell him he sucks. Your awesome special powers are not going to safe the day if noones talking at all.
To sum it up: post bitches
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ciry desperatly trying to not die on day1 this time
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On October 30 2011 22:51 risk.nuke wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2011 20:12 Toadesstern wrote: oh and just a hint since this is a beginners game: If you are a dt or medic don't just hide or something. First of all, that really gives you away for mafia and secondly we might end up killing our very own dt or medic because we went for a lurker who turned out to be a blue playing "let's not get any attention or I'm going to get killed by mafia". Unless your coach told you otherwise. In that case just tell him he sucks. Your awesome special powers are not going to safe the day if noones talking at all.
To sum it up: post bitches You seem awefully keen to make our dt and medic reveal themselves. Are you in bed with Hotbid?
nah, I'm kinda paranoid since last game where out of 12 people about 7 got modkilled because they didn't post enough
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On October 31 2011 00:47 risk.nuke wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2011 23:11 Toadesstern wrote:On October 30 2011 22:51 risk.nuke wrote:On October 30 2011 20:12 Toadesstern wrote: oh and just a hint since this is a beginners game: If you are a dt or medic don't just hide or something. First of all, that really gives you away for mafia and secondly we might end up killing our very own dt or medic because we went for a lurker who turned out to be a blue playing "let's not get any attention or I'm going to get killed by mafia". Unless your coach told you otherwise. In that case just tell him he sucks. Your awesome special powers are not going to safe the day if noones talking at all.
To sum it up: post bitches You seem awefully keen to make our dt and medic reveal themselves. Are you in bed with Hotbid? nah, I'm kinda paranoid since last game where out of 12 people about 7 got modkilled because they didn't post enough I see, but that is unrelated hence your paranoia defense isn't very convincing.. You were just hinting dts and medics to reveal themselves. That is scummy.
no the point is, that as a dt or medic you don't want to look like a dt or medic for mafia, because that would be an easy hint for them. So let's say we got 9 people and all of them are posting equally. In that case mafia will have a hard time figurering out who's a blue. If we got 9 people, 6 of them are talking a lot and 3 are not, mafia will have a slight clue and have to decide if it's a guy who just isn't playing this game activ or if it's a guy who does not want to get killed for some reason. I don't want to make a possible dt or medic stand out. I'm saying, that in my opinion posting nothing at all WILL make them stand out and vulnerable. Just take into consideration when I actually made that post: About the time when 4 of us haven't made a post in this thread. Maybe it's 3 I don't know but you get the idea. I just wanted to make sure that there's nobody thinking "oh crap I have to do as little posts as possible as a dt to not give away my secret identy" because that's what came to my mind last game (which was my first game) and I was a dt. I had to change it pretty soon :p
Haven't read page 11, am reading right now and will maybe add something. This is just to clear up my "intentions" about that "make medics and dts" post.
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On October 31 2011 06:30 Zanfada wrote:
Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now.
Just to clear things up since you brought that statement last game too. Remember my summary last game? I defended you as well and said that I'm pretty sure you're town. Yeah I was a dt but I never checked you since I checked all 3 reds and still knew you where town. I just wanted to tell the other guy so because he might not find out himself. You told me that looks like scum too and I just got to disagree here. Right now I think you posting little is normal because I saw the last game while a few think it's scummy. A couple guys think I made a scummy post by telling dts not to look like dts and ciry said he doesn't think so, which is a defence for me as well and I haven't got something scummy from him until now. So I got to say that logic is flawed :p
I still can't believe how that one guy thought I meant to make dts stand out of the crowd, looks a bit strange as if he wants to get town on someone, but that's just my opinion right now and I got to check what he posts the next couple days :p
Ok and now I read that thing from chocolate as well. I want you to explain that. Why is it a fos on ciry. I could understand a fos on zanfa although I don't believe it's strange since it totally fits in his style. Well and ciry is the only guy who started a real discussion. Everyone spammed a bit to get something going at all an he went for real talks, like "explain your thoughts" and stuff and from what I see it looks like he is trying to get people to make quality posts rather than spam. Totally fits in his style as well. Go ahead, blame me for defending, which I still think is wrong at this point, but I want your explanation on this. We obviously got very little right now but given what we have there's definitly people around looking more scummy.
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tell my what you don't like or what you don't think makes sense and I will explain it. Withouth anything it's just nothing you post to make poeple go after someone
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Ok yeah sry it's kinda late in germany and it's not my native language after all: I want you to explain why you think it's a fos on ciry because I think those "X is defending Y" arguments are flawed. I don't think that someone saying "hey that could totally be a normal posting" is scummy at all. Especially given that we know each other a bit.
I just said, zanfas posts totally look like zanfas post from last game, which turned out to be town (go ahead and search the old thread) and so do ciry posts. And except for that one point, which I think is not a scum tell (defending someone) I don't think we got something scummy on ciry.
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Oh and a hint. If you want to check our postings last game use filters. Ciry died day 1, so there's not much. Zanfas did not post a hell lot and I posted quiiiiite some but noone replyed. My posts probably need to be seen in context
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On October 31 2011 07:39 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:@Toad Keep in mind many (most?) people have not played together, if at all, before. So something fitting their style is hard to determine for those of us who haven't. That being said, I will now go look through that game you were in to try to fix that problem. For anyone else interested in doing so as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=264798It contains 3 of our current players, Toadesstern, Ciryandor, and Zanfada. It is also pretty short, so shouldn't take too long to read through. Careful with just filtering the three players though, context context context!
yeah but that's just what I said. We know each other a bit so I think both look perfectly fine. Zanfas does look a bit strange since he's posting so much but that's a good thing and I'm guessing he improved right now :p Ciry is just like what he did last game and well ciry said something like that about me. So that is why I don't think a statement like "yeah I played last game with him and it kinda looks legit" is scummy and I got to disagree.
oh and yeah sry hyshes, will keep quoting from now on. I'm not used to such a fast thread :D So this post was about harb and my last sentece was directed to hyshes. Those 2 before were more of a general post talking to everyone.
tell my what you don't like or what you don't think makes sense and I will explain it. Withouth anything it's just nothing you post to make poeple go after someone was directed to hyshes. everything clear now?
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Ok I still would like chocolate to explain why he got a fos on ciry. It might be right (I don't think we got a reason to think so but I won't say it's wrong on day 1 without information ) but if I had to make a list of people from 1 to 12 where 1 is the guy I think is the most likely to be town and 12 the guy most likely to be mafia in my opinion I'd place ciry somewhere in those top 50% spots. I still think that this is strange. The only reason behind this, as far as I understood it, was ciry "defending" zanfa ?
Also, keep in mind getting agressive is kind of a town tell. At least that's what happens to me. Just imagine you post something you think is ok or good, someone quotes it and makes it look like you're scum although you said something totally different, or at least wanted to do so. In that situation I WOULD probably be pissed. At least that's part of the "paranoid-answer" I did on page 9 when you guys asked me about the my post about dt or medics. I just did not think someone could interpretate it that way and thought it's clear and therefore I don't have to explain it. Turned out I was wrong. To sum it up: It might be something but I think it's more of a human nature thing getting into him. Let's face it, if someone accuses you to be mafia and you know yourself you're not the first thing you think is wtf is up with you dude, just reread what I posted. Also he did the exact same thing in the last game. He voted on day1 for me and switched later on his vote and only tried to make me talking.
I think those people desperatly trying to point at someone telling us to vote for those guys look way more scummy right now, which is why I still want that explanation from choc.
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Oh and a final note about all those fos things. I still think we should go for a lurker on day-1 unless we got something that sounds scummy and until now I don't think we got something. If we lynch someone who's lurking we got a decent chance of hitting a mafia. Obiously not every mafia style involves lurking.
But the two most important parts are (one already mentioned earlier): We force mafia into talking. That's not bad for mafia because of talking but because of talking a lot means a lot of chances of slipping. That's exactly what we want. The more mafia talks, the more likely we're to find something decent out of an analysis. Especially post death. For those who are reading the thread of the last game, take a look at my last post (for those who don't want to read the whole thing just read that one post): Klick me! Just take a look at my analysis. We had 1 guy who made a total of 2 (!) posts and thats all and those other 2 guys made pretty much no posts, as well and STILL we got a decent analysis out of me, not because of what they said but because of what dead, confirmed mafia said (pretty much everything I said about zanfas is stuff from dead mafias except for his one analysis). Just as an example how important this is. That way I at least knew zanfas was 99% town last game.
A second point would be our town situation. Of course lynching a mafia is what we want but let's think about what happens if we turn out to lynch a town. If we end up killing a lurking town that's bad because we ended up killing a townie instead of a mafia but killing an active townie is just really bad because killing a townie sucks and on top of that we're destroying townsituation by killing those guys posting. At least as long as it's out of the blue like now.
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Times mentioned in this thread from hosts are in TL-time I guess? So saying day will end 03:00 means 3:00 tl.time right? Since there's nothing else I'm guessing so but would like to get a yes on that
Also, I'm voting for chocolate. I still think it's a bit strange but I don't like that fosing around like a mad man. Could have been someone else who did so. He just turned out to attack me and since I know I'm not mafia that does sound a bit strange to me :p I'm at university right now, will be back in 4 hours so maybe we got something out of this when I'm back. ##Vote Chocolate
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Currently the deadline is 04:00 CEST (+02:00), but that is subject to change. found it, so that makes my question earlier useless
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sadly noone made a statement about my vote ;( I actually did not want to vote for chocolate but I'd ve loved to see those reactions from people about that who are already suspicios. first of all
Unvote## Chocolate
What do you people think about hyshes and risk? Risk is the one I'd like to see make a couple posts since he basicly said nothing and I don't know anything about him. While hyshes... I don't know, could be anything :p
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On November 01 2011 00:53 Toadesstern wrote: sadly noone made a statement about my vote ;( I actually did not want to vote for chocolate but I'd have loved to see reactions from people who I think are suspicious about my vote :/ first of all
Unvote## Chocolate
What do you people think about hyshes and risk? Risk is the one I'd like to see make a couple posts since he basicly said nothing and I don't know anything about him. While hyshes... I don't know, could be anything :p
that first sentence just made no sense, fixed it and hopefully it's clear what my intention was.
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On November 01 2011 01:26 IMABUNNEH wrote: Originally I had the idea that Zanfa sounds scummy. I still think that. HOWEVER I don't like Toad's most recent posting. He said in the original vote for Chocolate that he didn't like the way he was throwing FOS around, and is now backing off for a pretty weak reason. What did you expect to get out of that Toad? Someone bandwagoning or someone trying to defend him or what?
That kind of tomfoolery reeks of someone trying to be "too obvious" to me. I've got a couple of hours to make my vote still, but for now, FOS on Toad.
basicly my point is, that I don't like it, but given the fact that this is a beginners game for now I went with his explanation. However Voting for choc (for me) was easy after that, so I wanted to get a vote on him to observe peoples behavior. You know, someone changing his mind out of the blue just to get a vote on someone. That would have been pretty scummy and I know my last 2 or 3 posts sounded strange, that's why I did them :p I don't mind looking a bit weird from time to time if that's getting us a couple results. Mafia can't really kill me right now, because if they do and I flip green town gets massive amounts of information from previous posts since I was a topic the last pages. Same with zanfas, that is if he turns out to be green.
I still don't like what risk is doing here: nothing. If he's not going to make a vote and is going to get modkilled that's fine with me (not really but I can't do a thing about it), however if he showes up sometimes soon and does NOT get modkilled I want a pretty damn good explanation for what he's doing. Scrammen seems to be a bit strange while I did not think about Drem until now, will take another read.
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Ok I'm going with skrammen as well, we need to get a lynch and although I would have liked to get someone else I think going after him is fine, too. ##vote Skrammen
Just to get this clear since at least I did not know last game: It's not a simple majority vote, we need 7 people to vote on someone or it's a no-lynch. Having 4 votes on someone and 8 votes spread out is not going to get the guy with 4 votes lynched.
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lol just checked it myself and yeah got the same result. Zanfa get yourself in this thread and tell us what's going to happen with your vote. Are you going to keep voting for hacklebeast? I'm assuming you'll either change your vote to skrammen or me. A vote on yourself would be stupid and a vote on someone you're holding the only vote on is not going to get us anywhere, too. So voting for hacklebeast is not going to get us anywhere right now.
Also I would like to see those others guys stick to that rule. We need to lynch someone. Right now it's either zanfas, skrammen or me. A vote on someone else is a pretty heavy scumtell, so go ahead.
Also keep in mind there's probably at least 1 mafia around, or even two who already placed his/their vote/s to try and make people follow him. Especially if one of those 3 turns out to be mafia.
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On November 01 2011 03:37 IMABUNNEH wrote:Show nested quote + Mafia can't really kill me right now, because if they do and I flip green town gets massive amounts of information from previous posts since I was a topic the last pages. Same with zanfas, that is if he turns out to be green.
I think this sounds like you're already getting reasoning behind not being killed. You jump around a lot and most of your posts seem like you're going out of your way to let people know you're totally town. Other people look suspicious, but to me this looks like a balls out attempt to control the game yourself among newer players. For that reason... ##Vote Toadesstern
well obviously because I am town No let's get this serious. At least one group of voters will have to change their mind. Right now we got 3 an skrammen, only 4 voters left + zanfa who's going to change his vote. So If everyone but one votes for skrammen we're able to get a lynch. That's not going to happen. Maybe one of those lurkers is going to get modkilled and won't show up at all. Skrammen himself is within those 5 left over voters, he won't vote for himself now will he? What happens if he is red and one of those voters left over is red, too? He surely won't vote for him and will have an easy time voting for zanfa or me. Same goes for zanfa votes and those on me.
We will need to voters from one of those 3 to one of those 2 remaining to make this happen. And about jumping around, well yeah it's day 1. I want to get as much "strange" posts from people as possible. So far we got a bunch and no matter who dies today, we'll have pretty good information about mafia.
Let's assume I'm red and I'm getting lynched. In that case you probably want to go after those who did not vote for me or did defend me. However if I get lynched and flip green or blue you got a pretty descend guess on who is mafia, because it's most likely 3 out of those 7 who need to vote for me. Same goes for everyone. If we get a no-lynch we're not getting information at all because noone will know for certain if whatever stories are true or not and we're just turning around.
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Just to clear things up: I wrote that before xsksc and Skrammen posted, at least I did not see those posts. So my numbers in my example need to be changed. However, with skrammen voting for a no-lynch (read what i said about that and why that is the worst thing for town) I'm going to stick with him.
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On November 01 2011 04:30 risk.nuke wrote:Everyone respond to everything somebody throws against you. Even small stuff. I know it can be done to get by for a while ignoring minor suspicions because "oh look, they dropped me" or "it doesn't seem important". However for everything you do respond to it gives town more information. There are a few more hours left so if you can ditch in a few last efforts. Show nested quote +On November 01 2011 02:03 Toadesstern wrote: I still don't like what risk is doing here: nothing. If he's not going to make a vote and is going to get modkilled that's fine with me (not really but I can't do a thing about it), however if he showes up sometimes soon and does NOT get modkilled I want a pretty damn good explanation for what he's doing. Scrammen seems to be a bit strange while I did not think about Drem until now, will take another read. Toad, your play is inconsistant and all over the place. I can't tell if you're scum or just new. It's as if you're going for a town powerposition but you don't really know how to achieve it. I really don't like you're jumping on skrammen rather then defending yourself. ##Vote Toadesstern
me jumping on skrammen? I want to get a lynch, that's it and yeah skrammen sounds like a legit vote. I would have liked to get you lynched first but I'm ok with it the way it is, too^. Secondly I think I defended myself. I got a bunch fos from guys earlier and those backed off. You could just be a mafia thinking it's easy to get town to lynch toad because you're not voting for skrammen.
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oh and btw, since I was some sc while making my last post I only looked at what risk posted and not what he actually quoted. I asked you like 3 times to give an explanation for your aabstinence and you answer that with a text saying "guys, we need to anwser everything, no matter how small or insignificant (to you) the question might be" and yet you haven't come out and did what I wanted you to do: Explain why you are not posting and tell us about your thoughts.
I'm not having a problem with your vote here, but go ahead and explain it. You just said it' weird, while leaving out what I asked you to do 3 times. You're telling me that you don't like me to "jump" on skrammen without defending myself. Just go ahead and do the first step and I will gladly answer everything you want to know about me, my thoughts or my posts.
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you are defending him and I still think you're scum, after that wall of text I still (or even more) think you are. Also, everyone voting me and zanfa is taking his side because they are blocking a lynch! Dont just say noone's defending him. And you're misinterpreting what I said. My point was: I think he might be scum, like 33-45%, while you're my number #1 right now, especialy given that last post :p
The most important part right here: You think Skrammen is the easy wagon? I thought the easy wagon is either zanfa or me for mafia since there used to be always a couple of votes on both of us. Something like 1 or 2. Skrammen only started once ciry voted for him. Again, I would love to get you lynched first but he's looking scummy too and I for sure don't want a no-lynch as that's just the same as lynching a townie while leaving everything in the dark because we got no information out of votings or posts.
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On November 01 2011 07:49 risk.nuke wrote: Toad. My point is you say you think he is scum 33-45 percent while at the same time avoiding providing any arguments as to why. Even in your response you fail to do so but instead tried to defuse it into a scenario where we are just OMGUS-ing eachother. You're making it sound as if I were your suspect all along but it's actually only since I voted for you.
If he had thought I were scum he would had written what he had on me in the thread because thats what townies do. This is a scumslip. Look at this, I am now his main suspect for busting a bandwagon against someone he claimed to be 33-45% sure of.
Note this: Hypotheticly If I were scum and Skrammen is town, would I halt the lynch? Ofcourse not. So logicly I could only be scum if Skrammen is scum, and thats disregarding the possibilty that I am town and wrong about him beeing town. And yet I am his top suspect. That does not add upp. and my point is that I'm obviously not going to vote for myself. And I still don't think what we got on zanfa is something worth a lot.
If that summary of votes is correct we still need one more vote to get a lynch at all. That is if skrammen is red and no mafia voted for him and therefore can't change his vote.
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now that's crappy
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got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day.
Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now.
1) Both red Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo.
2) Both green Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit.
3) Skrammen green, I'm red In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority. That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what.
4) I'm green, Skrammen is red In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen.
For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid). I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked. 2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason). Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1
I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red.
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the problem with 3 is that it would mean that we're not able to get more than 3 votes focussed on someone and I think that is very unlikely because that's 6 (!) guys who are spreading votes. Not the fact that town would be screwed if 3 (pretty much the same as 2) turns out to be true is the thing that makes it the easiest / most likely explanation. I don't know how you guys approach this game but I figured people know that we need to lynch people to get something going.
I got to add that I probably forgot one solution. Maybe people didn't read the first post in this thread carefully and did not read my post about it pointing it out again: This game has no simple majority rule. Having 6 votes on Skrammen was not enough to get him lynched although he was the one with the most votes on the list. If there's a couple of people who did not know that for whatever reason, it would be another explanation for why we're not even able to lynch a townie (talking about scenario 2 and 3) because they thought 6 on Skrammen is already enough to get them lynched and no need to change votes.
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because they thought 6 on Skrammen is already enough to get them lynched and no need to change votes. was meant to be: "because they thought 6 on Skrammen is already enough to get him lynched and no need to change votes."
Also, when I was talking about 6 guys possibly spreading votes I was referring to townies only. 6 guys = 6 townie + 3 mafias spreading votes.
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I'm not excluding 3 for you as well. It's definitly possible, at least more than both of us are red. Still think that in particular #4 is more of a nice explanation as it does not require half town to be a bunch of morons to be possibly true :p
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On November 02 2011 03:24 Zanfada wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On November 02 2011 00:48 Toadesstern wrote: got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day.
Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now.
1) Both red Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo.
2) Both green Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit.
3) Skrammen green, I'm red In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority. That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what.
4) I'm green, Skrammen is red In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen.
For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid). I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked. 2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason). Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1
I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red. 3) This is what the votes are kind of showing, 3 townies for both of you and then 3 mafia for skram to save you. I voted for skram to save myself, he hasn't done any analysis other then superficial placing FOS on my for post crap which is just as much as he has done.
You're missing two major points here: First of all, it would not be 3 votes on skramm and me but 3 votes on skramm, 3 votes on me and 3 more votes spreaded (that's 2 on you and 1 on choc if you assume that 3 mafias are on skramm). Secondly the skramm wagon happened way earlier that things got "serious" about my votes. He got 3 votes on him while I had 1 and we both got to 5-3 pretty fast. Still, even in that situations there's no need for my hypothetical mafia buddies to come and safe me when he got 5 votes which turned out to be 6 later on. You need 7 votes and if 3 out those 6 votes on skramm are scum, than there's pretty much no way a lynch on my could have happend. It would be 6 on skramm and 6 on me, given that every single voter who voted for you (or choc) switched to me and on top of that it would have needed more people switching to me from skramm than people who're switching to skramm from me (at least one more). If I were mafia I would have told my buddies to chill the fuck out because there's not going to be that much changes happening.
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On November 02 2011 06:24 Drem903 wrote:
Mostly because he seems adamant about convincing us that he is town, and constantly restates that point over and over again. Which seems like something mafia would do if they were desperate to avoid a lynch. was that about me? If yes than I'll ask you a question: If someone said you're mafia and in reality you're town. So given that situation: You would not try to convince people you're town? Because that's going to get people on the right track and town will avoid a town lynch. I'd say in both cases I'm going to try and convince you I'm town :p
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Oh and one big thing I forgot, but I'm going to bed now: Remember. I never lurked, I never ignored something. You asked me smoething? A question? An explanation of what I meant? Np, I answered everything! At least I think so and I always told you to ask me if somethings unclear and said I'm going to answer everything you're going to ask me. I'm completly telling you guys what my intentions are and yet some people think my actions sometimes were weird (for example to try and get some reactions out of people) and in the end most people tend to say the reason behind it sounds legit. Does that sound like a mafia or like someone trying to get some information on day 1 with so much nothing before I started doing so?
On the other side we got skrammen who's lurking hardcore, we got risk who's lurking hardcore. Skrammen is answering sometimes while risk is just completly ignoring EVERYTHING he was asked and he's totally ignoring posts like skrammen did when he talked about the possibility of risk being mafia (that is if skrammen is red, too). He went ahead and asked you guys what you think about the situation skrammen vs me, just to ignore the next thing. He IS explaining this one thing: Why he thinks I am mafia and is complety ignoring everything else. Does that sound like a townie? In my opinion it's more of a guy trying to make people go after me and nothing else. Go ahead, search for all my posts with the content risk. Plenty got something with risk in it, asking him to explain what his thoughts are or whatever. I haven't found a single answer yet.
I still think skrammen looks red but this could be a huge problem and we both could end up being green and I got to change what I said earlier: I don't think mafia would have to push for skrammen if skrammen turns out to be green. Town fighting over lynching either Townie1 or Townie2 while not able to decide which one is a pretty nice position to be in for mafia as well. I'd still like to vote for risk over skrammen.
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+ Show Spoiler +On October 30 2011 22:48 risk.nuke wrote:Avenge the ponies!! and GM :|
Okey. Gentlemen, I know what we're dealing with and it's a creature of pure evil. However my #1 got noobed in his face by rampaging xeno basterds so I were out of suspects. Unless... ...Gentlemen, who do we know that obviously hate mafia and ponies sunshine and top of it won't give us handsome lads a sidebar. That's right. Hotbid. Hotbid must have gotten wind of tlmafia recruiting, knowing he can't exert his evil powers without risking the attention of the others he dared not make an appearence himself. Instead he used his wicked influence and stunning looks to corrupt three promising young initiates. Hotbids scheme must be stopped and his mislead rookies caught. No matter the cost. ...the future of TL Mafia depends on it. I don't like those kind of posts. Yeah it's meant to be funny (I guess) but we want to get something done. That kind of posts are not helpfull at all because it's makeing it easy for mafia to hide within spam. Not a big deal, but that happens a lot in your posts. + Show Spoiler +On October 30 2011 22:51 risk.nuke wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2011 20:12 Toadesstern wrote: oh and just a hint since this is a beginners game: If you are a dt or medic don't just hide or something. First of all, that really gives you away for mafia and secondly we might end up killing our very own dt or medic because we went for a lurker who turned out to be a blue playing "let's not get any attention or I'm going to get killed by mafia". Unless your coach told you otherwise. In that case just tell him he sucks. Your awesome special powers are not going to safe the day if noones talking at all.
To sum it up: post bitches You seem awefully keen to make our dt and medic reveal themselves. Are you in bed with Hotbid? Okay it's a question but at that point in time I could not believe someone could misinterprete my statement the way you did. Once I read that I basicly sat there thinking "wtf, I'm not telling blues to reveal themselves, are you kidding me?". Could be intentional to get me talking but I thought it's bullshit and it's again half a spam. + Show Spoiler +On October 31 2011 00:47 risk.nuke wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2011 23:11 Toadesstern wrote:On October 30 2011 22:51 risk.nuke wrote:On October 30 2011 20:12 Toadesstern wrote: oh and just a hint since this is a beginners game: If you are a dt or medic don't just hide or something. First of all, that really gives you away for mafia and secondly we might end up killing our very own dt or medic because we went for a lurker who turned out to be a blue playing "let's not get any attention or I'm going to get killed by mafia". Unless your coach told you otherwise. In that case just tell him he sucks. Your awesome special powers are not going to safe the day if noones talking at all.
To sum it up: post bitches You seem awefully keen to make our dt and medic reveal themselves. Are you in bed with Hotbid? nah, I'm kinda paranoid since last game where out of 12 people about 7 got modkilled because they didn't post enough I see, but that is unrelated hence your paranoia defense isn't very convincing.. You were just hinting dts and medics to reveal themselves. That is scummy. Since you made two "joke-posts" I thougt I'm going to answer as a joke as well because I still could not believe you really interpreted my post the way you did and thought you're kidding me. So you doing jokes is fine but I'm doing joke is not? Guess that was a misunderstanding, but still, it adds up. + Show Spoiler +On October 31 2011 01:27 risk.nuke wrote:Show nested quote +On October 31 2011 01:22 IMABUNNEH wrote: I'm not entirely sure what "posting for the sake of posting" is defined at, but its not like there was anything MUCH to poke at prior to my posts.
Either toads or risk.nuke definately look a bit dodgy. Both of the posts struck me as quite aggressive in turning it into finger pointing. I don't think getting all up in peoples' grills immediately is what we want. It's just going to get innocent people on the defensive from the start.
Drem has so far poked at someone randomly as a "joke" and then at myself for not getting immediately aggressive. Who's next, risk.nuke for BEING aggressive? :p I don't think finger pointing every 6 posts at a different person is going to help us.
I doubt someone with almost no activity at this point is likely to be scum though. So even though Skrammen hasn't said anything,I'd rule him out for the time being and look at the "half-active" posters. risk.nuke and hacklebeast are both pretty aggressive in getting people to turn on someone so early. Getting in peoples faces is precisly what we want. How else do you expect to catch scum? + On October 31 2011 01:42 risk.nuke wrote:Show nested quote +On October 31 2011 01:24 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:I don't see how toad telling people to be active even if they are blues is suspicious, it isn't like he said "dt's and medics should role-claim in the thread" or anything. He, like most of us, is simply trying to encourage activity from everyone. It also helps make it clear that you must contribute to scum-hunting as a blue if you don't want to be mistaken for scum yourself. And just to call someone out a bit, I believe Skrammen has actually said the least of anyone so far, with a total contribution of: Good morning gentlemen! Even if that was what you thought, why were you so quick to tell everyone what you thought toad ment. He wasn't about to get lynched.. If that's what he thought when he wrote it he wouldn't had have any problems telling us that himself, if he's scum he might had given a scumslip. FOS That's what I said earlier. Yeah you want people to get talking. Fosing around like a mad man however sounds like a mafia trying to make a case out of nothing to get people on someone instead of them + Show Spoiler +On November 01 2011 04:13 risk.nuke wrote: Apologies, I have been hardlurking all day, not by intent I didn't find time to read and analyse untill now. I don't know, I'm criticising you for not showing up all along. I expected more of an answer. A simple "hey sorry, had to work / had to look after my kids / had to learn for university" would have worked for me. I asked you multiple times to get a bit specific and tell us why you're lurking, you never answered. I know it private but unless it's something strange or emotional I think telling us is np. + Show Spoiler +On November 01 2011 04:30 risk.nuke wrote:Everyone respond to everything somebody throws against you. Even small stuff. I know it can be done to get by for a while ignoring minor suspicions because "oh look, they dropped me" or "it doesn't seem important". However for everything you do respond to it gives town more information. There are a few more hours left so if you can ditch in a few last efforts. Show nested quote +On November 01 2011 02:03 Toadesstern wrote: I still don't like what risk is doing here: nothing. If he's not going to make a vote and is going to get modkilled that's fine with me (not really but I can't do a thing about it), however if he showes up sometimes soon and does NOT get modkilled I want a pretty damn good explanation for what he's doing. Scrammen seems to be a bit strange while I did not think about Drem until now, will take another read. Toad, your play is inconsistant and all over the place. I can't tell if you're scum or just new. It's as if you're going for a town powerposition but you don't really know how to achieve it. I really don't like you're jumping on skrammen rather then defending yourself. ##Vote Toadesstern "Everyone respond to everything somebody throws against you. Even small stuff." Thats what you said, telling me (I guess?) I'm not open enough although I answered everything I was asked while you kept lurking and ignoring requests. I don't really like that. + Show Spoiler +On November 01 2011 06:29 risk.nuke wrote:The reason I don't like the Skramen lynch is because nobody have tried to help him. Thats a pretty good indicator you're lynching a townie unless scum is throwing him under the bus. Remember scum likes to get onboard an easy wagon. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now, I am going to tell you how the Skrammen case started. Due to the massive amounts of texts and quotes in quotes I write in green and Ciryandor is underlined.
Show nested quote +On October 31 2011 20:36 Chocolate wrote: Skrammen has contributed very little so far so until he talks more I will vote for him. ##vote Skrammen This is not true, Skrammen haven't talked any less then several other people.Show nested quote +On November 01 2011 01:33 Ciryandor wrote:On November 01 2011 00:55 Toadesstern wrote:On November 01 2011 00:53 Toadesstern wrote: sadly noone made a statement about my vote ;( I actually did not want to vote for chocolate but I'd have loved to see reactions from people who I think are suspicious about my vote :/ first of all
Unvote## Chocolate
What do you people think about hyshes and risk? Risk is the one I'd like to see make a couple posts since he basicly said nothing and I don't know anything about him. While hyshes... I don't know, could be anything :p that first sentence just made no sense, fixed it and hopefully it's clear what my intention was. It's the time of day for most people. I'm about to sleep, so I'll miss around 8 hours of discussion, but I feel that Skrammen has been able to coast by the most, and next to that would be Drem903.
Putting pressure on him and explaining my vote to follow:
## Vote Skrammen
Skrammen's first game post is a greeting, nothing wrong there, but it's fluff to make sure he doesn't get modkilled.On October 31 2011 05:40 Skrammen wrote:On October 30 2011 14:42 Zanfada wrote: Day 1 it is very important not to let the mafia lurk and hide in the background. So we have to preasure them and force everyone to interact. If you look at the last mini mafia town lost because of inactivity. So we can't have anyone be inactive.
I guess to get things start hacklebeast hasn't posted anything yet. so until he speaks up or a better target comes along
##Vote hacklebeast 4 hours into the game and you go on and try to stir some discussion up? He wasnt the only one who had said nothing up to that point, why did you choose him? It seems a little bit... Dodgy to use a vote to pressure someone into talking more so soon I think. And just a head's up: Since we have people from both sides of the pond in this game there is bound to be somewhat of a delay in answers and people might be working or sleeping when some discussions takes place. We should be somewhat tolerant of this, but obviously 24 hours of no posting is not good. Now here he looks at Zanfada's early pressure and thinks it's scummy to randomly highlight someone, when it's actually good town play to be non-discriminating; then proceeds to state the obvious that certain conversation delays are going to happen simply because of timezones.On October 31 2011 23:10 Skrammen wrote:On October 31 2011 07:20 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:In the interest of getting some other possible discussions going... Skrammen has now doubled his post count, using his first to say good morning and his second accuses someone for trying to stir up discussion with a vote "so soon", as well as a preemptive excuse for not being active: And just a head's up: Since we have people from both sides of the pond in this game there is bound to be somewhat of a delay in answers and people might be working or sleeping when some discussions takes place. We should be somewhat tolerant of this, but obviously 24 hours of no posting is not good. The only people that benefit from a delayed discussion is obviously the mafia, they'd rather it never happen. Also, while his statement is true, I think it was fairly obvious to most people, and scum always like to have an excuse to fall back on. So FOS on Skrammen for now. Ah. Well, you see I was only trying to clarify some things so they are clear. I did not however, encourage it. + Show Spoiler +The only people that benefit from a delayed discussion is obviously the mafia, they'd rather it never happen. Also, while his statement is true, I think it was fairly obvious to most people, and scum always like to have an excuse to fall back on. I think we both might be talking without saying anything now; both of these things are quite obvious, yet we both had to say it. What I said was just that; A head's up just in case people did not know. Honestly I think this is pretty bad grounds for accusations. I still maintain that a vote 4 hours into the game is pretty suspicious, but not enough to be convinced he is red. + Show Spoiler +I can take my vote back at any time. The vote was just there to promote talking which it did just that.
What was alot more interesting was Toad's post and how it was received. I personally think blues should post and help the town or they stand out to mafia and playing safe and become much better targets. Also mafia rarely mention blues for the simple fact that it makes them look more like mafia hunting for blues with any mention of blues. The same goes for blues themselves, they want to hide with town and do their job. I think Toad was just trying to prevent what happened last game to happen this game. However his post doesn't say anything more then "post guys" which doesn't further along any conversation it just increase his post count which in my opinion is all mafia try to do for the first day. On October 30 2011 22:54 hacklebeast wrote: Show nested quote +
Unnecessarily trying to start a town panic? Baseless accusing people that, under your own admission, have no evidence against? Sounds like very mafia things to do. I'm not going to go so far as to cast my vote yet, but I'm watching you.
Besides, I could never have committed the crime. Gmarshal I could take or leave, but killing ponies? I don't have it in me to take out something this lovable.
I wasn't starting a town panic, though it seems to have caused you to panic a little. Your response to my vote seems to be an emotional plea involving ponies and a FOS but little more then that. It seems as if you are trying to not draw any sort of attention to yourself even after a vote has already been placed on you. Normally I would take this as a scum tell but it seems more like a newbie tell then a mafia at this point.
Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now. This is his answer to why he did it, and to be honest, it worked, he got stuff going which is good. I will be keeping an eye out, but at this point his reasoning seems good enough for me. As you said earlier, delaying discussion is indicative of scummy behaviour, or perhaps it might not be? An elaborate ruse? Here in this post he's very much guilty of pointing out something that works towards the scum-team's advantage, and that is to have fluff conversations regarding people who merit suspicion, but not applying enough pressure for him to actually do a vote.
Three posts, two on a very weak FoS, just enough to evade proper scrutiny. I think this is worth my vote. Alot of text but contentwise it's an exaggeration to call this case weak.Show nested quote +On November 01 2011 02:29 Toadesstern wrote: Ok I'm going with skrammen as well, we need to get a lynch and although I would have liked to get someone else I think going after him is fine, too. ##vote Skrammen
Just to get this clear since at least I did not know last game: It's not a simple majority vote, we need 7 people to vote on someone or it's a no-lynch. Having 4 votes on someone and 8 votes spread out is not going to get the guy with 4 votes lynched. Bandwagon is forming up, and still there is nothing solid on Skrammen, and what the hell is the part where he admits he'd rather want to go for someone else but will settle for this guy whom we have nothing on. Why would a townie want to lynch a random person when the chances of catching a scum is 3/12. Lynching a town gives the dt less rounds to find scum.Show nested quote +On November 01 2011 04:01 xsksc wrote: ##vote Skrammen
I'm still suspicious of zanfada, I want to see him reply soon. I could well change my vote to him, depends on his next post.
Again, no arguments to why we should lynch this guy----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This case is a clear bandwagon based on little/nothing. Alot of people here are new which makes an unquestioned bandwagon all the more dangerous. Don't jump on something you don't feel strongly about yourself, otherwise we will be no match for the scum. But most interestingly, I feel the need to emphasize this again. Nobody is taking his side. Imo that's still a big lie or a big mistake. Already told you why I think so. (To sum it up: You ARE defending skrammen, everyone not voting for skrammen IS defending him because they're blocking the lynch, if you're attacking a mafia there will be people defending him, at least one buddy and yet you tell me that this looks strange?) + Show Spoiler +On November 01 2011 07:49 risk.nuke wrote: Toad. My point is you say you think he is scum 33-45 percent while at the same time avoiding providing any arguments as to why. Even in your response you fail to do so but instead tried to defuse it into a scenario where we are just OMGUS-ing eachother. You're making it sound as if I were your suspect all along but it's actually only since I voted for you.
If he had thought I were scum he would had written what he had on me in the thread because thats what townies do. This is a scumslip. Look at this, I am now his main suspect for busting a bandwagon against someone he claimed to be 33-45% sure of.
Note this: Hypotheticly If I were scum and Skrammen is town, would I halt the lynch? Ofcourse not. So logicly I could only be scum if Skrammen is scum, and thats disregarding the possibilty that I am town and wrong about him beeing town. And yet I am his top suspect. That does not add upp. it's not a scumslip. If I tell you the very moment I think you look strange (that was at the very beginng, based on stuff I just don't like, but those things could still be town) you would know I'm looking after your posts and therefore would take care of what you're saying. Also I answered your first paragraph and you completly ingored it ( I think). + Show Spoiler +On November 01 2011 09:32 risk.nuke wrote: But jesus christ I'm even off tracking myself, Why are you still blind and talking about Skrammen. Toadesstern have accidently done several scumslips, wake up! That's just weird. You're claiming I'm looking weird because I don't give explanation of what I'm doing? You're kidding me right? As mentioned, I DO explain whatever you want me to explain once you ask me, yet you come by posting a bunch of nothing, blaming me to have made couple scumslips without saying what those are, not even giving a single example. Yeah, totally what a townie would do "Let's lynch him! He's mafia because I know so!"
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w t f. I just don't understand what risk did the last couple of days... again, he's telling me I'm only focussing on one guy (him) while completly ignoring everything else. The reason I did that (also, I did not do that, I still talked about other possibilites, see my big post abaut skrammen/me/zanfa/risk being mafia or not? Also I was defending myself and did not ignore someone blaming me just to go on and say "hey let's lynch risk") was because HE did it in the first place with me. That in combination with all that fuss he wrote made me think he's 100% sure scum.
To answer Harbs posts I'm really not sure right now... I think mafia did us a great favor with lynching risk because that way we don't end up argueing who is mafia without getting someone killed. Right now we at least now he was green although I did not like what he did. I'm not even sure about skrammen anymore. If risk was town, risk REALLY thought skrammen is town. However risk ruined day1 with his vote on me. He has to know that a nolynch is the worst possible thing for town (except killing blues I guess) since it's leaving town completly in the dark and that is the very thing we want to change/avoid, yet he blocked the lynch, which just did not make sense at all.
My list of mafias would have been: 1) Risk (I explained that enough I guess) 2) Probably drem + Show Spoiler +On November 02 2011 11:50 Drem903 wrote: What would scum gain from killing risk? Toad was the only person who ever really targeted Risk, but would he really (if Toad was mafia) target the person that only he had reason to target? That would make it really obvious that he was, in fact, scum.
Something to consider is that Mafia may have killed Risk to try and reinforce the current FOS on Toad. I'm not sure if mafia would do such a thing. They HAVE to be aware of the fact that it does look like that. So my guess is they killed risk to make it look the way you said, obviously that's because I know I'm not mafia :p + he was one of the guys blocking a lynch on day1 who did not vote for men (he voted for zanfa, blocking a lynch, saying later on that was stupid and he did not do it for a reason). 3) Either someone like hyshes/bunneh or skrammen
However, we know risk turned out to be green which changes a lot. You guys have to either lynch skrammen or me to get some information because you can' afford that one of us might be a mafia playing some tricks on you in this thread twisting the conversation the way he wants and makeing you get a nolynch again because everyone's uncertain. So no matter what, you need to get a lynch today. I'm just afraid both possible lynches could be a townie. Frankly what Skrammen answered did not seem to be mafia, except for the fact that it's very little. What he said was rightm although it was obvious but he did not try to make you think something weird with wrong logic. Maybe it really is skrammen, drem + either hyshes or bunneh or hackle but I don't think it's that easy (again, from my point of view!). If Skrammen turns out to be green we got to rethink about the wagon on day1. Ciry has been doing great the very first day and was definitly on my top5 (something like that) town list and he still is. However if skrammen really IS green that's not exactly a good sign for ciry and everyone else who voted for skrammen. If I flip green a couple of guys attacking me probably are red and we already know that that rule is flawed, since risk turned out to be green. Right now I'd say drem + one of the three above is mafia or skrammen + someone we don't have in mind right now. If I had to make a list right now with 3 names it would be drem, hackle, skrammen. Skrammen is kind of a protection move for me :p I think he's a coinflip at most for us. I said earlier he's a 30-40% scum for me (something along those lines) and what he said after that lynch attempt did not make it go higher. If I had to make a list of 3 townies I'd go for xsksc, Ciryandor, Zanfada I'm really having trouble here. xsksc because he admitted that he thinks I'm green somewhere the last couple of days. I think a mafia would have pushed for me. Same for ciry and zanfa, they both would have had an easy time screwing my game telling people "hey guys, we totally know Toad from the last game and this is nothing like the way he played last game. Last game he was a townie/blue => he probably is red". Those 3 are followed by a bunch of people who I think are town because they made some posts that made them look green (like your most recent harb) but I'm not entirely sure as at this point of the game with so much conspiracy going on it would be easy for mafia to look green.
As a finishing line: We do need a lynch today, we can not let town be in the dark for another cycle without getting information who actually is fooling around with us, so make a lynch happen guys!
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oh and I'm already placing my vote. I don't want you guys to vote 8 hours before the deadline. Keep in mind that a couple of guys here are from europe. Deadline is 03:00 am for me and I have to wake up at 6:50 in the morning. So placing votes late on the second day of this cycle might help spreading votes and therefore we might end up having another no lynch. I don't want that to happen
##Vote Drem903
Both hyshes and drem voted for zanfa which is just plain bullshit. I could have seen how people wanted to vote for me after I got a couple of votes but I can't see how you can leave your vote on zanfa knowing that it's helping mafia because we're getting a no-lynch. Hyshes however looks town from time to time while drem just got this stupid vote without explaining why he stayed with zanfa (same goes for hyshes) and nothing really that looks like town. If drem shows up and actually starts to talk I'm willing to reconsider my thoughts here. If you guys are going to lynch someone else who's on my top5 or 6 of my mafia list and are able to get a couple of votes on him I'm reconsidering it as well.
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yeah we got 48 hours but last time we started to late voting and did not finish our discussion and ended up with a nolynch
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On November 02 2011 19:05 hyshes wrote: Erm i did explain why i voted for zanfa.. i needed a vote and wanted to be sure to not get modkilled.. and i missed the deadline because TL screwed up their [*time*] thing for europe...
This mafia kill is actually very strange to me, i had a few scenarios in mind of who would be mafia if someone died.. but i never thought risk would be a target.
oh ok, I thought you said you needed a vote to not get modkilled for the moment (way before deadline) and wanted to change it later on.
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I already voted for drem :p So your list of 3 people is supposed to tell us we're mafia or just suspicious?. All 3 mafia is nearly impossible, while suspicious sure is possible. Just ask yourself why should I vote for drem if both of us are mafia? Same goes for ciry. He was the guy he proposed voting for drem in the first place. Why should he do so if both are mafia? If ciry's mafia than drem's town and probably vice versa. Additionally I would not tell people that I think ciry is green because the very moment I would flip red you'd know ciry is probably red too. That's a very nooby mistake for mafia and it's easy as shit for town to look up what a confirmed mafia (because he was lynched and flipped red) said about other people in retroperspective. But yeah I'm all for a drem vote right now since I'm honestly considering skrammen to be town :p
The problem with skrammen and me is, that convincing some or even a majority of town is not going to be enough. You either have to lynch us (or just one of us, if your first lynch got a mafia and you believe that only one of us can be red because both red is stupid) or make sure noone who truely is town votes for one of us. We need 6 people on a vote. If I'm able to convince let's say 2 more people and I still end up having 2 townies who vote for me we're going to have a no lynch almost certainly, because those 2 people kept voting for me. That's 2 people blocking a lynch from town + 3 mafias blocking a lynch from town = 5. We got 11 people alive and we need 6 people for a vote. So to get a lynch we would need EVERYBODY but those 2 guys + 3 mafias on the same guy. I don't think we're able to do so as the situation is way more complex than yesterday and we didn't even mangage to get a majority yesterday. If you guys are not able to get a majority either go for skrammen or me with everything you got (that is votes). Don't care what the results are, you could end up lynching a townie but you can't afford to not lynch someone and be uncertain of who is actually tricking you the whole game.
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btw my thoughts about that risken kill is simply outsourcing a problem: If you guys believe that I'm green you also believe that mafia wants to see me dead at some point in the game, obviously. Why waste a KP on me if they can just kill risken and that way maybe town is lynching me for even more reason. Worst case would be town gets it and noone lynches me, therefore only one guy killed with 1 KP. Best case would be 2 guys killed with one KP because Toad lynched me because of that risk kill. Nothing to lose for mafia here, but it's kind of obvious as long as you believe I am truely town.
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that's not going to happen because at most it's 2 people being red. As mentioned, there's not point ciry or I (ok I see why you don't care for my vote) should push for drem if both are red.
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yeah, glad I'm not the only guy who got that. I mentioned the same thing as harb about hyshes post earlier, too. I see why he is ignoring my point but ciry STARTING and PUSHING for drem just makes no sense if both are mafia while me being mafia or green isn't even important for that question.
Same with drems post. I thought we've already discussed his 3rd part. Also, I started doing these walls of text BECAUSE last time I made a small post a bunch of crazy people came allong telling me "hey you just told blues to reveil themselves" and I was sitting there thinking wtf is up with you. That's not what I said. So I made sure such a thing isn't happening again by clearifying every single fuck I posted.
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sry forgot to quote again, my post was a reply on harbs most recent post above my original I am quoting beneath
On November 03 2011 03:31 Toadesstern wrote: yeah, glad I'm not the only guy who got that. I mentioned the same thing as harb about hyshes post earlier, too. I see why he is ignoring my point but ciry STARTING and PUSHING for drem just makes no sense if both are mafia while me being mafia or green isn't even important for that question.
Same with drems post. I thought we've already discussed his 3rd part. Also, I started doing these walls of text BECAUSE last time I made a small post a bunch of crazy people came allong telling me "hey you just told blues to reveil themselves" and I was sitting there thinking wtf is up with you. That's not what I said. So I made sure such a thing isn't happening again by clearifying every single fuck I posted.
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Okay I'm unvoting right now: ##Unvote Drem903
Explanation: What he said is basicly what he blames me to do. Doing a mistake although I said it never was a mistake it just wasn't meant to be interpreted that way (still can't believe how someone interpreted it that way...). So that looks scummy by his very own logic, HOWEVER if he truely would be scum, shouldn't he know how much mafias this game got?... I'm just confused right now and don't know who to vote for...
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Ok guys let's stay on the ball. Just think of my position for a second if I actually am town: If I happen to survive this lynch I NEED to get you a mafia lynch, If I'm not able to make that happen I'm dead because I pushed for someone green and you got all the reasons you need to lynch me without a discussion. So I'd say let's find me a mafia. Right now I got about 5 people who I think might be mafia and I guess in the end 2 of them will be mafia and the one remaining is someone not on my mind right now. Not exactly the way I want it to be.
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Ok I'll do a list myself and I got about 5 people who I think might be mafia:
drem Lurking hardcore. That's the main reason here and I don't know why he is lurking so much, but other than that I got nothing on him. Yes he did a big mistake with that mafia numbers but the question really is if that was intentionally. I doubt it, since it's such a major mistake everyone should be able to see the second they read it. So I really think he did that mistake for some reason and it's nothing weird other than not knowing this fact. Also blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote (useless vote = vote for choc or zanfa imo)
Skrammen I'm still not convinced of him to be mafia, however I don't like him not posting at all. He's completly ignoring this issue right now. I don't know what I'm supposed to think about him. If there's nothing comming the next couple hours I'm probably going to vote for him. Also blocked a lynch on day1. Not a useful talent toi have.
hackleYet again another one of those "not-posting-guys". I don't like it and it looks strange to say the least. Still nothing certain.
HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. This theses posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote.
bunneh That's his last post + Show Spoiler +On November 02 2011 21:51 IMABUNNEH wrote:I've just spent half my lunch hour catching up on this and reading through... I hope you're happy That kill was.... unexpected. Reading back through his posts, Toad is the only person to REALLY benefit from it. I don't think Toad is that stupid, but do we have any scum around that are stupid enough to think that would work? It's such a BLATANT kill that it could mean almost anything with relation to Toads. I can't see it as unrelated though, so the options in my mind are: 1) Toads is scum. Risk was so vehement about it that killing him protects Toads, and nobody would really think Toads that dumb, so he could get away with it. 2) Someone else was trying to implicate Toads to get people off of them, which would make Skrammen scum most likely. Killing Toads would be too obvious perhaps, so framing Toads much better? 3) Risk only brought a case against ONE other person, which was against Harbinger. Perhaps killing someone not too obvious to keep people off himself. However every explanation both prior to Risk's death and since then seems to include Toad or Skrammen as being red as an option. If one is red the other is almost certainly green, but at this point it is just far too unlikely that neither of them are red. Once I'm home from work and not on lunchbreak I'll pull up Harbinger's post history as well, see what gems are hiding there, because of point 3, unless someone beats me to it. It's definately something worth looking into, especially as he was a part of the Skrammen "bandwagon". I know we have 48 hours, but I think initially at least we should put some focus on these guys. If we're so spread out like Day 1 we'll end up with a no-lynch, and I think I definately made a mistake not switching to Skrammen Day 1. Initially I was far more suspicious of Toads, but they're almost 50/50 now, and having the information from one of them would have made today a lot easier for us. and theres nothing wrong with it as far as I am concerned. But I would like to hear some more from him.
I'd say it's either 2 of them + someone else who seems to be town or 3 of them if we're lucky. Also I think mafia spreaded votes a bit to not screw themselves for the chance of someone dieing. I'd say we got about one mafia voting for me, one mafia voting either for choc or zanfa and one more doing whatever he likes (if skrammen is green that 1 guy could vote for skrammen, he could also vote for me or choc/zanfa as well). I doubt we got all 3 mafias in one "place" considering votes.
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HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. This theses posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote. Actually I don't remember what I wanted to say with my second sentence and it's not making sense, guess I wanted to change this with these? :D I'd say it's something like: HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. Because of these posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote.
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On November 03 2011 07:16 hyshes wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2011 07:14 Toadesstern wrote:HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. This theses posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote. Actually I don't remember what I wanted to say with my second sentence and it's not making sense, guess I wanted to change this with these? :D I'd say it's something like: HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. Because of these posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote.
Ask the host, i was around when the deadline happend. TL f*cked up the [*time*] thing after the hour shift of saturday Yeah and that's the reason why I changed my mind and started believing you. The thing that's weird right now still is this post:
On November 03 2011 00:04 hyshes wrote: I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here.
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903
These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure.
I still think it's wrong and so does harb. Probably a couple other guys too. I'm just not sure why you posted it :p
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I never truely targeted choc, he thought I'm mafia and I thought at that time that hyshes and risk are suspicious so I voted for him, choc responded but I wanted to see a response from either hyshe or risk, which never happened so I unvoted
Also my list was not sorted in any way. If I had to tell you 3 mafias right now it would probably be Skrammen, hackle and maybe bunneh or someone else. Those things against hyshes never were major points, except for that one last post. And yeah you're posts the last 2 pages got you fron #1 mafia to #4 or #5 right now :p
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but I did not check on choc since back than I just figured he's town. Will check what you (drem) posted about him and check it myself
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Ok read it and yeah it makes sense. Also you got half a defence for bunneh which you did not mention (perhaps because bunneh wasn't an issue for you?).
Skrammen: If you decide to lynch me anyway, and I do flip green, there's a good chance all of the scum will be among those who are most adamant about lynching me. If I flip red, then risk and bunneh got some 'splaining to do. It could be a weird set-up but given that we know risk it green I might be willing to believe bunneh is probably green too. There's two possible explanations for it imo: 1) Skrammen is red and trying to get us on two townies the moment he flips red. 2) Skrammen is green and just picked those two out of nowhere. I Have issues with his "picks" here. Why did he say bunneh and risk? Ciry was the guy who issued the skrammen lynch, someone (I don't know who right now) followed, and I was the third guy. Whats the reason for choosing bunneh and risken here? Why not go with ciry who issued the wagon or with me? I was having some votes at that time too and the moment skrammen flips green I'm in HUGE trouble here and if he truely is green, he got to know that.
Right now I'm going to say hackle and skrammen are the two guys who are most likely mafia with a preference on hackle. But that's it for me today, got to wake up in 7 hours, I'm going to bed now.
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On November 03 2011 07:57 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @Toad, he said if he flips red risk and bunneh have issues. Not if he flips green. He said that because risk and bunneh defended him. oh yeah... should have went to bad instead of posting half asleep :p That was just bullshit coming out of me.
Right now I'd still like to push for hackle the most. Drem and skrammen both are strange but I'm not sure about both right now. Drems mistake the other day is just so simple it got to be a real mistake rather than a scumslip. Also given he doesen't know how many mafias are in this game I'd sag he's not mafia. I still got a feeling skrammen might be green, I'm off to univerity now and will look this through later on.
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Also, made my post before harbs most recent one. Read it and I'm going to check hyshes history myself once I'm back to get a little context but from what he quoted it seems legit. Just depends on wheter or not he left out important information, therefore checking for context is important. However, if he really is not interested in finding mafia at all (which is basicly your first point, yeah he might say he wants to get them but he's not doing so if what you said it correct) that's terribly looking weird.
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wtf is this hyshes. I am almost certain harb's green. I'm not going to stop voteing for you because of those 3 posts and to tell the truth all 3 aren't exactly looking town.
I've got my vote on hyshes as well ## Vote Hyshes
Also how do you know we got a dt? We don't have to have one. Yeah couple of people look blue but they could be medics as well or one medic one dt or whatever. And btw that could be a reason why mafia did not go for obvious lynches as well. Maybe they feared there actually is a medic who would get a hero safe on someone like ciry on day1.
A townie is just not going to say "yeah go ahead and lynch me" just because of one vote, no matter how strong the case. He would try to defend and tell the guy where his mistake is to make sure he's not getting lynched because after all, a 100% townie lynch is worse than a 90% townie lynch. After all you know for certain if you are town or not. I did the same although I phrased it a little bit different. I told you to lynch either skrammen or me as I thought it's the only majoritys we're going to get today and since I know I'm not mafia I went for skrammen because I thought he's something about 50% town which is still better than a lynch on me.
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Also if you REALLY know 3 scums + dt (however that's possible) there would be no problem to tell us. Yeah our dt would die but who cares if we got a 100% proof list of those 3 scums (which is never going to happen). So that last post just makes no sense. Maybe you got a decent idea, I think I got a decent idea of who might be blue and who might be mafia too but I'm not going to be as bold to say I'm 100% sure. Additionally a DT really hasn't that much extra information. I'd say (that is if we got one!) he either checked skrammen or me on night1. So he either knows if I'm red/green or if skrammen is red/green but that's still 9 people left (11 - 1 he checked - himself) he's completly unaware of.
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Oh and to just clear things up again before a bunch of crazy people come around and yell at me "you just told him to tell who's the blue guy". That's not what I meant. I said if he really had a 100% proof list than there would be no problem in telling us. This 100% list is not possible at this point in time. No matter how much information you got unless you're mafia (even in that case you only got a decent guess on who is blue). So that's just an impossible scenario.
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1) We got a case here 2) If he is not willing to defend himself himself we can't stop lynching him because of that, because it's not making sense 3) The only possible thing is him being red and thinking he's going to get lynched anyway so he might as well try that one.
NO Townie want's to get himself lynched unless it's not possible to not get lynched for some strange reasons, but he'd still try to prevent it (look at my case).
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I could consider a vote on myself as a townie if I already got a majority. In that case one could argue it's probably ok because otherwise you're going to die anyway but this just makes no sense with 1 vote on him and a post from harb. Also if I would consider voting myself as I townie I sure as hell would make a big post. Knowing I'm going to die I would write down everything I know / think to be true with everything that could possibly help town once they see I flipped green. However I would NOT just go ahead and write "yeah fine whatevs, lynch me" without something else.
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On November 03 2011 22:16 hyshes wrote: I'm not retarded, and this aint stupid play either. It's the only play i got left to have a possible chance on a town win. I'm just kinda hoping it will open your eyes. I'm just offering good working material here. for that purpose, i'm willing to do a sacrifice here.
After my action here it will be 6towns vs 3 mafia (assuming mafia kills a townie next night), so still a good majority for the town. Maybe if towns is lucky, it will be 7vs3.. if you flip green we know exactly nothing except for the fact that you've pulled an emo here. It's not like harbs red because he went for you. If that'd true EVERYONE has to be red in here because everyone once accused someone (I guess) If you flip red we know why you did it.
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that unvote isn't chaning a thing. You still tried (don't know if you knew about the rule or not) and if we now just stop voting for you we will establish a game were everyone who's accused to be mafia can just vote for himself, unvote himself later on and therefore we got to unvote you too? That's just still not makeing sense at all.
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this bandwagon did not form rather fast on itself. It did form rather fast because he voted for himself which is a no-go for a townie unless (maybe) if you already got a majority because that might be the only way to get out of it (although it's not allowed, has that rule been there for longer?^^).
He brought this on himself and we got little time left! Keep in mind it's 20:00 right now in europe and I have to wake up at 7:00 tomorrow so I won't stay until deadine for sure and I guess a lot of people are not going to do so as well. That's why I said to get your votes faster than on day1. We had a big problem focusing our votes because of that issue. If there's nothing that's changing my mind withing 2 hours I'm not going to change my vote because I have to go to bed at some time and we won't be able to get a lynch again. And unlik Zanfa I'm not saying that changing my mind is easy. Given the fact that there's little time left I don't want to risk a no lynch again while he looks scummy as hell just because a couple of guys already went to bed or are away or whatever.
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On November 04 2011 04:26 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: [...] Since 2 is against the rule "play to win", I am stuck with my previous conclusion that he is scum. I thought of that as well but I did not want to say it because if that would be gm's game he would have already stepped in this game yelling something like "when this game is over I will be handing out bans like candy". Same thing happened last game a bit worse :D
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we got 7 votes on hyshes right now. IF hyshe is red I guess we got 1 or even 2 mafias on him as well to protect themselves. I'd like to see another guy voting for him to make it an 8. That way mafia can't safe him. 6 is the magic number with 11 people alive.
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there we go finally an answer that is not just ignoring everything someone said without explaining why. Now why didn't you do so in the first place?
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so I just have to post a lot and I'm safe as a mafia for all game?
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why should we if you don't explain it? It could be anything and the point here is to try and guess who's mafia out of what people say or much more what they don't say. It's not about a bunch of people saying "kill X" without explanation and the party who got more luck wins.
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On November 04 2011 07:10 hyshes wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2011 07:02 Toadesstern wrote: why should we if you don't explain it? It could be anything and the point here is to try and guess who's mafia out of what people say or much more what they don't say. It's not about a bunch of people saying "kill X" without explanation and the party who got more luck wins. I'll rephrase that. Not if everyone shared the same logic as me. ok that's it for me. I tried talking to you, you kept answering in phrases that got no content, I gave you an easy one to go with, you finally started explaining and yet you still refuse to explain something else. That's just not what a townie would do no matter what. I'm going to bed now...
Also about that shitty logic, well I don't know I'm doing math at university so yeah I got that attitude that I don't believe in stuff unless it's got a decent explanation or it's proofen somehow because no matter if it's right or wrong the statement got no value if we don't know if that's just a lucky hit or the guy said that because of something else because again: Doing mistakes is not a scum tell as long as they're not on purpose so we have to know. You however refuse to give us that information.
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Answer to hyshes: + Show Spoiler +On November 04 2011 08:00 hyshes wrote:## Why Taod is scum ## ###################### + Show Spoiler +On October 31 2011 07:28 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On October 31 2011 06:30 Zanfada wrote:
Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now.
Just to clear things up since you brought that statement last game too. Remember my summary last game? I defended you as well and said that I'm pretty sure you're town. Yeah I was a dt but I never checked you since I checked all 3 reds and still knew you where town. I just wanted to tell the other guy so because he might not find out himself.You told me that looks like scum too and I just got to disagree here. Right now I think you posting little is normal because I saw the last game while a few think it's scummy. A couple guys think I made a scummy post by telling dts not to look like dts and ciry said he doesn't think so, which is a defence for me as well and I haven't got something scummy from him until now. So I got to say that logic is flawed :p I still can't believe how that one guy thought I meant to make dts stand out of the crowd, looks a bit strange as if he wants to get town on someone, but that's just my opinion right now and I got to check what he posts the next couple days :p Ok and now I read that thing from chocolate as well. I want you to explain that. Why is it a fos on ciry. I could understand a fos on zanfa although I don't believe it's strange since it totally fits in his style. Well and ciry is the only guy who started a real discussion. Everyone spammed a bit to get something going at all an he went for real talks, like "explain your thoughts" and stuff and from what I see it looks like he is trying to get people to make quality posts rather than spam. Totally fits in his style as well. Go ahead, blame me for defending, which I still think is wrong at this point, but I want your explanation on this. We obviously got very little right now but given what we have there's definitly people around looking more scummy. I've marked a bit in red. Why the hell would you refer to another game? It's not because you were town in that one, you are in this one. + Show Spoiler +On October 31 2011 08:26 Toadesstern wrote:Ok I still would like chocolate to explain why he got a fos on ciry. It might be right (I don't think we got a reason to think so but I won't say it's wrong on day 1 without information ) but if I had to make a list of people from 1 to 12 where 1 is the guy I think is the most likely to be town and 12 the guy most likely to be mafia in my opinion I'd place ciry somewhere in those top 50% spots. I still think that this is strange. The only reason behind this, as far as I understood it, was ciry "defending" zanfa ? Also, keep in mind getting agressive is kind of a town tell. At least that's what happens to me.Just imagine you post something you think is ok or good, someone quotes it and makes it look like you're scum although you said something totally different, or at least wanted to do so. In that situation I WOULD probably be pissed. At least that's part of the "paranoid-answer" I did on page 9 when you guys asked me about the my post about dt or medics. I just did not think someone could interpretate it that way and thought it's clear and therefore I don't have to explain it. Turned out I was wrong. To sum it up: It might be something but I think it's more of a human nature thing getting into him. Let's face it, if someone accuses you to be mafia and you know yourself you're not the first thing you think is wtf is up with you dude, just reread what I posted. Also he did the exact same thing in the last game. He voted on day1 for me and switched later on his vote and only tried to make me talking. I think those people desperatly trying to point at someone telling us to vote for those guys look way more scummy right now, which is why I still want that explanation from choc. Thats an easy statement to try to convince people you are town. But its well hidden in a huge wall of text, so it does not stand out. Actually good play, but i found it. + Show Spoiler +On October 31 2011 09:08 Toadesstern wrote:Oh and a final note about all those fos things. I still think we should go for a lurker on day-1 unless we got something that sounds scummy and until now I don't think we got something. If we lynch someone who's lurking we got a decent chance of hitting a mafia. Obiously not every mafia style involves lurking. But the two most important parts are (one already mentioned earlier): We force mafia into talking. That's not bad for mafia because of talking but because of talking a lot means a lot of chances of slipping. That's exactly what we want. The more mafia talks, the more likely we're to find something decent out of an analysis. Especially post death. For those who are reading the thread of the last game, take a look at my last post (for those who don't want to read the whole thing just read that one post): Klick me!Just take a look at my analysis. We had 1 guy who made a total of 2 (!) posts and thats all and those other 2 guys made pretty much no posts, as well and STILL we got a decent analysis out of me, not because of what they said but because of what dead, confirmed mafia said (pretty much everything I said about zanfas is stuff from dead mafias except for his one analysis). Just as an example how important this is. That way I at least knew zanfas was 99% town last game. A second point would be our town situation. Of course lynching a mafia is what we want but let's think about what happens if we turn out to lynch a town. If we end up killing a lurking town that's bad because we ended up killing a townie instead of a mafia but killing an active townie is just really bad because killing a townie sucks and on top of that we're destroying townsituation by killing those guys posting. At least as long as it's out of the blue like now. Nice idea.. select a lurker to get a free kill as mafia. And again, the refer to another game where he was town. + Show Spoiler +On October 31 2011 17:31 Toadesstern wrote: Times mentioned in this thread from hosts are in TL-time I guess? So saying day will end 03:00 means 3:00 tl.time right? Since there's nothing else I'm guessing so but would like to get a yes on that
Also, I'm voting for chocolate. I still think it's a bit strange but I don't like that fosing around like a mad man. Could have been someone else who did so. He just turned out to attack me and since I know I'm not mafia that does sound a bit strange to me :p I'm at university right now, will be back in 4 hours so maybe we got something out of this when I'm back. ##Vote Chocolate Trying to get an easy hit on a townie without proper argument. + Show Spoiler +On November 01 2011 00:53 Toadesstern wrote: sadly noone made a statement about my vote ;( I actually did not want to vote for chocolate but I'd ve loved to see those reactions from people about that who are already suspicios. first of all
Unvote## Chocolate
What do you people think about hyshes and risk? Risk is the one I'd like to see make a couple posts since he basicly said nothing and I don't know anything about him. While hyshes... I don't know, could be anything :p Hit failed, next targets lining up. + Show Spoiler +On November 01 2011 02:29 Toadesstern wrote: Ok I'm going with skrammen as well, we need to get a lynch and although I would have liked to get someone else I think going after him is fine, too. ##vote Skrammen
Just to get this clear since at least I did not know last game: It's not a simple majority vote, we need 7 people to vote on someone or it's a no-lynch. Having 4 votes on someone and 8 votes spread out is not going to get the guy with 4 votes lynched. Ofc he's also a fine target for you. You don't care wich townie dies. + Show Spoiler +On November 02 2011 02:03 Toadesstern wrote: the problem with 3 is that it would mean that we're not able to get more than 3 votes focussed on someone and I think that is very unlikely because that's 6 (!) guys who are spreading votes. Not the fact that town would be screwed if 3 (pretty much the same as 2) turns out to be true is the thing that makes it the easiest / most likely explanation. I don't know how you guys approach this game but I figured people know that we need to lynch people to get something going.
I got to add that I probably forgot one solution. Maybe people didn't read the first post in this thread carefully and did not read my post about it pointing it out again: This game has no simple majority rule. Having 6 votes on Skrammen was not enough to get him lynched although he was the one with the most votes on the list. If there's a couple of people who did not know that for whatever reason, it would be another explanation for why we're not even able to lynch a townie (talking about scenario 2 and 3) because they thought 6 on Skrammen is already enough to get them lynched and no need to change votes. This has to be the biggest tell of all. Throwing numbers that mean nothing. There is no reason to assume that these 6 vote don't include the scums. It was day1 afterall. I assume you can find the rest yourself. 1) Because he said "everyone trying to befriend me got to be mafia". He said the same thing last game and it was wrong. I am not only showing him why this is wrong but also giving him an example of his flawed logic. That is why i mentioned the last game. Since he did not say what he thinks about the red line I'm not sure what he dislikes there. I just said that I'm gettin pissed if people think I'm scum although I'm town. Is that weird? 2) Well yeah. That's the point of this game after all. I was being targeted so I have to convince people I'm town in both scenarios: If I'm green I want to prevent a 100% townie lynch and want to lynch someone else, If I'm red I don't want to be lynched because I'm red. 3) Mafias wants to lurk. If they're able to lurk without being called out that's perfect for them because they can't make scumslips in the first place because they're not even talking. So it's about three major things: - I think it's more likely some mafias are amongst lurkers in a newb-game, also it's not mandatory - We makeing a statement "we don't want lurkers in here, start talking" which is bad for mafa. - lynching a lurker isn't that bad if he turned out to be green as lynching an active green player 4) That without context. Go ahead and search the thread. I stated that I never wanted to lynch choc, I just voted for him to get some information on hyshes and risk and people I was suspicious of. Like if they're following me or if they're trying to convice people to vote for choc for no reason and so on. 5) Yeah again, I'm trying to defend myself and build a case without going into emo-mode and just ragequit. So sure I'm trying to get people off of me. 6) Given how risk and you are playing town I'am maybe willing to believe that town isn't able to focus more than 3 votes on a guy and again we only got that lynch on you because mafia was helping. But I wasn't believing it at that point in time.
To sum it up, imo we got kind of a mod-kill. No information here as he (willingly?) played anti-town by refusing to give us information and we lynched him for playing anti-town. I can't blame harb for going after him because if that's not allowed in the first place we won't find a mafia at all. Also I can't blame people on makeing pressure or jumping on the wagon once he pulled that emo. It's just like a modkill... The major point here is that we just can't people allow to unvote someone because the suspicious guy voted for himself. If we start with that behavior we can't lynch anyone because they will just not defend themselves, they will completly ignore the issue, vote for themselves and people have to withdraw their votes because of that. Therefore townsituation is screwed because we'd be a bunch of people starring at each without saying a word because ignoring the blame and voting yourself will be just fine as a defence.
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not talking at all won't make it better
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well the problem for me is that I'm pretty much back to a null read... It could be anything and whats most terrifying ist the fact that mafia probably voted for skrammen on day1. We got risk and hyshes killed and both were not voting for skrammen. However if I look at that voting list and just look at who voted for skrammen I'd say everyone but choc looks amazingly town to me. And choc isn't looking scummy to me, he's just a 0-read for me. I'm just shocked hyshes did turn out green I guess. I really though he's 99% mafia...
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actually ciry is fallen more and more to the bottom of my list. I know he said he got no time but still, it's just not a single post. Not even an update or whatever. Choc is still a 0-read for me and I don't know what to think about him. However the fact that risk and hyshes both did not vote for skrammen makes me think there's probably a bunch of mafia (that's right, at least 2!) on skrammen.
also I don't joke with that monkey's uncle thingie. I'm glad I did not say that when we lynched hyshes 8(
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Big post from sermokala. I spoilered it to make it more readable. + Show Spoiler +On November 05 2011 13:29 sermokala wrote:First off It can't be me no mafia would go inactive Exhibit 1. Show nested quote +On October 31 2011 17:31 Toadesstern wrote: He just turned out to attack me and since I know I'm not mafia that does sound a bit strange to me
reasons a threat to onesself and then references that "he knows hes not mafia". his first moves in this very thread are counter to another instead of just srugging off and trying to elaborate on someone else. Smart scum moves proving his guilt. Exhibit 2 Show nested quote +On November 01 2011 01:54 hacklebeast wrote: ## vote toadesstern
I think his moves have been shady since the beginning. First tries to get the important figures to revel themselves (not explicitly, but if a lurker suddenly started posting significantly after it would give mafia a good clue), then follows it up with a lot of talk about the necessity to kill lurkers. To top it off he fingers chocolate only to rescind his vote after no one else follows suit. Switches up his game then (this is page 13) going from randomly choseing someone rescinds this and then trys to get a lynch to happen without justifying it. simple slight of hand to remove any question to himself about anything while achieving his end goal as a scum. Exhibit 4 Show nested quote +On November 03 2011 20:21 Toadesstern wrote: wtf is this hyshes. I am almost certain harb's green. I'm not going to stop voteing for you because of those 3 posts and to tell the truth all 3 aren't exactly looking town.
I've got my vote on hyshes as well ## Vote Hyshes
Also how do you know we got a dt? We don't have to have one. Yeah couple of people look blue but they could be medics as well or one medic one dt or whatever. And btw that could be a reason why mafia did not go for obvious lynches as well. Maybe they feared there actually is a medic who would get a hero safe on someone like ciry on day1.
A townie is just not going to say "yeah go ahead and lynch me" just because of one vote, no matter how strong the case. He would try to defend and tell the guy where his mistake is to make sure he's not getting lynched because after all, a 100% townie lynch is worse than a 90% townie lynch. After all you know for certain if you are town or not. I did the same although I phrased it a little bit different. I told you to lynch either skrammen or me as I thought it's the only majoritys we're going to get today and since I know I'm not mafia I went for skrammen because I thought he's something about 50% town which is still better than a lynch on me. Accepts bait But guess what happened to one of the guys who voted for him? Risk is dead and he was a townie. easy clean mafia tactics by toad here. Exhibit 5. Show nested quote +On November 03 2011 20:25 Toadesstern wrote: Also if you REALLY know 3 scums + dt (however that's possible) there would be no problem to tell us. Yeah our dt would die but who cares if we got a 100% proof list of those 3 scums (which is never going to happen). So that last post just makes no sense. Maybe you got a decent idea, I think I got a decent idea of who might be blue and who might be mafia too but I'm not going to be as bold to say I'm 100% sure. Additionally a DT really hasn't that much extra information. I'd say (that is if we got one!) he either checked skrammen or me on night1. So he either knows if I'm red/green or if skrammen is red/green but that's still 9 people left (11 - 1 he checked - himself) he's completly unaware of. this is the most oozing post for me. If someone came out and said that they know who the scums and dt is they would be imediatly cast into doubt with little evidence and the real scums would pounce on that. then he goes on about his "idea" of whos scum and only gets away withoutsaying anything about it by saying that hes not "bold". /vote Toadessternand thats all I'm going to do for my first couple posts. made a bunch of mistakes but I'm sure I'll get into this just fine.
Ok I'm back and lol we got a hero medic :p To answer those things above:
1) Yes it was day1 and I just did not think there was something that could get problematic at that point in time. I do realize that I should not have played it that easy the very first hours and should have explained everything better in the beginning. Also this is half an answer to your second one. Yeah I figured those guys really think my phrase (that one where I told people to talk no matter if blue, green or red) was odd so I had to react to it and from that point in time I changed it up and explained EVERYTHING I wrote. So yeah I changed it up because I thought my play on day1 had flaws in it. Not those 'weird' phrases you guys showed but those 2 answeres. One of them you just quoted and the other one being that paranoid answer.
2) I still think lynching a maybe-mafia is better than a no-lynch + what I said at 1).
3) not found :p
4) Bait accepted? I did NOT vote for him before he started pulling that emo. Once he did it I had to vote for him. And someone else mentioned I was late on voting for hyshes (I think bunneh or I misread something). I was the 2nd (!) to vote for hyshes.
5) Look it up, I posted that list just some posts earlier because I was asked to make a list by harb so I figured I don't have to quote myself just to state that I actually made that list. And yeah what you said is what I did. HE SAID he got a list and is pretty sure he knows who our dt and those 3 mafias is, although we don't even know if we got a dt. That's just weird and you just explained yourself why my reasoning was fine according to you, you just ended up saying it's not. Either because you're under stress right now and have to compensate for hacks poor play and had to get something done quick or because you want people to lynch me and can't find a real thing.
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On November 05 2011 23:21 Skrammen wrote:So, I'm just going to share some of my thoughts and consider some scenarios here. First of all, welcome hacklebeast 2.0 Sermokala. You've probably been following this thread and already have some thoughts to share with us. With you being new its pretty difficult for us to get a read on you. I would love if you could post some more of your thoughts regarding who is scum and who is town. Regarding the Me vs. Toadsstern thing, at this point two options seem to be possible: 1. One of us is scum. This seems to be the general consensus, and we've been in each others throat for most of this game. But if toad was green then the mafia should have used this, because if Toad gets killed by mafia, I would have been lynched already. But if we consider Toad to be a mafia, the scum will not touch me, because if I die it gives you pretty good information on him. 2. Neither of us are scum. I'm not quite sure about this, but I've mentioned this previously. I think this is the least likely of the two. Also, I noticed somthing Toad said: + Show Spoiler +Ok I'm back and lol we got a hero medic We cant be sure there is a medic, yet he automatically says there is one. A scumslip? Although, to be fair, I do not think the mafia would abstain from trying to kill someone, so we might have one. I cant be for sure if this is a scumslip or just a lack of clarification, but it does seem a bit suspicious to me.
a scumslip? What other possibilities are there? :D And no, Mafia deciding to /dance (deciding not to kill someone) is not an explanation I'm going with. So yeah I guess the only thing left is us havin a medic.
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but it's awesome. The very moment I post something that's so clear and I don't need to explain it someone shows up and yells at me that I'm scum because you can interprete it in a way nobody does until he's forced to do so by some magical power. I don't know if that's a townie being overeager to find something where nothing's to be found or a mafia trying to get people on me again. I'm still kinda shocked since hyshes flipped green. If I have to stop lynching people like hyshes I'm just not sure by what standars I'm supposed to go. A mafia yelling he's mafia? Yeah that happened last game and he got banned for that. But given those two things (mafia yelling he's mafia and what hyshes did) I'm just having problems imagining something you're able to do that makes you more mafia than hyshes actions and at the same time less than a mafia yelling he's mafia because that's a banreason.
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Ok let's look back at what we know out of the voting from day1. I changed it a little bit do add who's dead and deleted those unvotes to make it more readable. The only people who changes votes were me ( I was on choc changing to skrammen) and zanfa who was on hack and changed to skrammen as well. So here we go:
On November 01 2011 10:02 kitaman27 wrote: Day One Update
Hacklebeast
Chocolate Skrammen
Zanfada hyshes dead Drem903
Skrammen Chocolate Ciryandor Toadesstern xsksc Zanfada HarbingerOfDoom
Toadesstern hacklebeast IMABUNNEH risk.nuke dead
That was the most recent update on day1 and nothing changed afterwards, so it got to be right. I'm not going to make it to complex here and will just talk about the skrammen-issue and what skrammen being red or green means. So obviously we got 2 possibilties: He's either red or green (while being blue would be a subset of being green). What does either one mean for us? If he turns out to be read I'm 99% certain there's no mafia voting for him. I don't think they would risk that given we already got 6 votes for him and 7 would be enough to lynch him. As you can see we only got 4 people who are not voting for skrammen who are still alive. That would mean if skrammen's red probably 2 out of those 3 left are mafia (those 3 are former hacklebeast, bunneh and drem). So that would be awesome. However if he flips green we probably got a bunch of mafias voting for skrammen as well. I'd say about 2 and one spreading his vote. If that's what's true we might have to reconsider who actually is town and who's not. 2 Days ago I went ahead and said I'm pretty sury ciry, zanfa and xsksc are town. Takeing into consideration what harb did the last days he's without a doubtt on my town list as well. What's left is choc and myself. Frankly I'm considering myself to be townie :p Also I think a lot of people are still considering me to be a 50/50 because of what happened on day1 because from my point of view I made clear I'm a townie on night1 and day2 but yeah those 2 lynches which turned out to be green didn't exactly help my reputation since both wanted to get me lynched. So for me that makes choc an easy target (that is ONCE and IF skrammen flips green) and I have to reconsider what I think of xsksc (haven't checkes his history but I got the feeling he isn't posting that much lately), ciry (same as xsksc although he got an excuse) and zanfa (same again).
Right know I'm leaning towards skrammen because of that. If we lynch a townie again it's 6v3 and if mafias succeeds in killing a townie it's going to be 5v3 which is almost lylo (it is unless our medic pulls another hero) and we have to lynch 3 mafias in a row to get this done.
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I really should proofread after changing phrases because if I don't a post like the one above comes out I hope it's still understandable. Some spelling issues (do = to, read = red, that very first sentence just got no grammar or whatsoever :p)
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oh yeah seems like I missed that because I was still asleep at that point in time. My bad :p
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also just to add this: I am aware of that post ciry made earlier and it looks to be town no question it's just that other than those big analyses he's completly skipping the talk. I know he said he's buisy but I just wanted to mention it.
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Well in that case I'm obviously on Skrammen. Given what I said earlier I think the outcome is always better if we lynch skrammen. If he's mafia than fine, we just lynched a mafia (same if you lynch me and I flip red). However since we got hyshes and risk the green case is really fucked up. If I flip green you can't tell a bit about other people because risk and hyshes, who both targeted me were green. So a logic like "let's just lynch everyone who pushed for toad" would be flawed. Plus I got to add that I still think the only reason you guys still think I'm 50% mafia is because of those weird lynches/kills by mafia. Yes both attacked me bot come on, noone could have THAT seen comming
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oh just to add it:
##vote Skrammen
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Just got a call. I'm going to be out playing poker today in an hour. So if you got questions for me, now would be the time. I'm going to be back at 02:00 am my time I guess (that's in 6 hours) and since it's saturday np to stay up for the deadline. So if you can't wait 6 hours for my response go ahead and ask NOW or wait 6 hous.
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oooh right. we got a whole day + some hours :D
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hey there I'm at a friends laptop right now and since I run into AK on an AXX board (first fucking hand in our 9 people tournament...) having AQ I'm having some spare time until they finished this round
First of all I'm unvoting, I might have found something weird. ##Unvote Skrammen
But I would like to see one particular post and I just can't find it. Someone stated a weird ratio of town vs mafia and I'm not sure who did that. If you guys know what I'm talking about I'd really love to see that post again because I can't find it, I don't know who did that post, I don't know at which page this post was made and I don't know by what I should search. A reply of who made that post would be good just fine because I could look my way through his posts as well. After all I can do the work myself I just need to know who made that post.
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Ok found it myself and I would like to hear your opinion on it. Might be a scumslip, might be just weird.
On November 03 2011 03:35 Drem903 wrote: you know, if you guys want to lynch me for having shitty reading comprehension and screwing up the lynch day 1 for not realizing there were only 3 mafia.... then i would not blame you.
We still have a much larger majority, so it's still not the worst situation. Also, even if we did succeed, all it would take was 2 other indecisive townies to vote differently (or vote with mafia unwittingly), to have nothing done today. Either way i could have screwed up much worse, and i do apologize for making the noobiest mistake possible.
On October 31 2011 01:19 Drem903 wrote: Are you able to change you're vote after you have voted?
If you're not able to change you're vote, then we also have to be very suspicious of zanfada. We both randomly chose a person to try and encourage discussion, but he actually voted. If you can't change you're vote, then that seems suspicious to me, as he seems in a hurry to lynch someone (anyone). If you can change you're vote, then it's no big deal, but it's still something to consider.
On November 03 2011 03:21 Drem903 wrote: [ ... his reason why he voted for me ... ]
Anyway, now that i'm a genuine target. As i said, my reasoning for not lynching SK was that my suspicion was not enough to risk lynching him if he's town. If Rammen was town, then we would have ended up losing two townies on day 1, leaving us with a bare majority (we would have 6 out of 10 people), which means every one of us would have to agree. The risk is that if one or two mafia make even an ok case, some town may agree with them and then we get split vote once more.
I wasn't convinced enough on SK to vote for him so i didn't. This is only my first game, so maybe that's just a nooby mistake and it's usually worth it to take a chance on the lynch, but i just didn't think it was in the town's best interest to take that chance.
Now that's kind of the drem we all know. He seems to be not that much informed, doesn't know you can unvote and isn't even aware of the fact how many mafias are in this game which would normally make him look really green because every mafia know how many buddies he has, right? HOWEVER, what I found yesterday was the following:
On November 01 2011 03:28 Drem903 wrote: I'll be the first to admit that i am not particularly talkative, although that's mostly because i don't have regular computer access at school.. I have been reading the thread through, and although i still hold zanfada in suspicion, i will also have to agree that SKrammen has not really contributed that much either.
His only notable post just recounts information that everyone should know (though some may not have read the thread too carefully and could've forgotten). Although i feel the need to point out, that SKrammen did call out Zanfada for being hasty to vote (even if he could later rescind the vote). If they were both scum, then it wouldn't make sense for them to call suspicion upon one another.
Zanfada also hasn't posted in a while, and the only notable parts of his posts were: asking the blues to post more frequently (though not to identify themselves), and to defend himself from hacklebeasts own accusations.
So, the people i'm currently very suspicious of are: SKrammen and Zanfada. When i get more time to really look at everyone's posts this might change, but it's just those 2 for now.
##vote Zanfada
Now read the bolded part again. That's kinda weird right? He's the guy who got so little information about mafia, does mistakes from time to time and also keeps telling us he's a noob (that's his excuse for not voting for skrammen on day1 and I think he said so a couple of times in the thread) and yet he comes and tells people they are suspicious because they posted something everyone should know? That's strange to say the least and I think he might be playing a game on us, fooling us into thinking he's a noob while he does those "mistakes" on purpose. He just completly changed his posting style that very moment. He's the guy who makes mistakes and therefore I stopped thinking he's mafia and yet he just comes by basicly telling people "hey that's really something odd, I think everybody knows about that because we had to read the thread, why do you post that?". Well yeah I thought everybody knows there's 3 mafias in this game as well just as I thought everybody knows you're able to unvote.
Your opinion guys? Oh and just to add. I don't even know what drem was talking about in the last post I quoted. He clearly was talking about zanfa but he didn't quote a thing. So I searched for a zanfa post on page 13 (that's where drems post was), nothing to be found ,same for page 12 and I finally found a post on page 11. + Show Spoiler +On October 31 2011 06:30 Zanfada wrote:I can take my vote back at any time. The vote was just there to promote talking which it did just that. What was alot more interesting was Toad's post and how it was received. I personally think blues should post and help the town or they stand out to mafia and playing safe and become much better targets. Also mafia rarely mention blues for the simple fact that it makes them look more like mafia hunting for blues with any mention of blues. The same goes for blues themselves, they want to hide with town and do their job. I think Toad was just trying to prevent what happened last game to happen this game. However his post doesn't say anything more then "post guys" which doesn't further along any conversation it just increase his post count which in my opinion is all mafia try to do for the first day. Show nested quote +On October 30 2011 22:54 hacklebeast wrote:On October 30 2011 14:42 Zanfada wrote: Day 1 it is very important not to let the mafia lurk and hide in the background. So we have to preasure them and force everyone to interact. If you look at the last mini mafia town lost because of inactivity. So we can't have anyone be inactive.
I guess to get things start hacklebeast hasn't posted anything yet. so until he speaks up or a better target comes along
##Vote hacklebeast Unnecessarily trying to start a town panic? Baseless accusing people that, under your own admission, have no evidence against? Sounds like very mafia things to do. I'm not going to go so far as to cast my vote yet, but I'm watching you. Besides, I could never have committed the crime. Gmarshal I could take or leave, but killing ponies? I don't have it in me to take out something this lovable. I wasn't starting a town panic, though it seems to have caused you to panic a little. Your response to my vote seems to be an emotional plea involving ponies and a FOS but little more then that. It seems as if you are trying to not draw any sort of attention to yourself even after a vote has already been placed on you. Normally I would take this as a scum tell but it seems more like a newbie tell then a mafia at this point. Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now.
Right now I'm on drem and I would like to hear his thoughts about it as well. Maybe I'm just misinterpreting something but I want him to tell me if that's the case and what I'm doing wrong. So imo he's either a total nooby or he's a mafia trying to make us think he'S a nooby and the last thing I quoted from drem makes me think it's the second one right now.
##Vote Drem903
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On November 07 2011 00:13 Ciryandor wrote: Finally, I leave to anyone who wants to follow up on my Day 1 post why they think Skrammen is a good lynch. Right now, my suspicions are on Drem and Skrammen, with xsksc being a close third. Toad and Bunneh's scumminess depend on each other, if one flips green or red, chances are the other is the same. Zanfada relies a bit on drem's flip as well. Chocolate and sermo are both non-tells, while HoD is closest to confirmed town in my eyes.
pretty much sums up my thoughts as well except for maybe xsksc. I would not put him on my 3rd place of my mafia list, maybe on 4 or 5. Could you please do me a favor and tell me what you think about what I pointed out about drem just before you started doing your analyses? Because that was actually the most flashing part for me when I searched his history because I thought it's just not fitting his usual style.
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It really is a hard lynch and to be honest the decision whether to lynch skrammen or drems a comlpete gut feeling for me right now as they're both so close for me. Chocolate might be on the same level of scumminess or slightly below but I think we're able to spot if he's mafia out of a drem or skrammen lynch way better than the other way around. That's why I'm not on choc for today (unless I really have to because we got a bunch of votes on him) and would rather see skrammen or drem lynched. xsksc is still kind of a 0-read for me. He got a a few posts which looked a little townie and I thought there might be a bunch that look a little scummy but those turned out to be mistakes I made. Right now I'd say xsksc is more likely to be town but it's nowhere near a clear read.
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Oh and my reasoning in drem over skrammen is that skrammen looks more scummy imo but drem looks less town. So far I went for risk and hyshes because they looked awfully scummy and in both cases it turned out to be a nooby-mistake. That's why I'm willing to change it up a bit and rather go for those who look like they're not town instead of going by people who look to be scum, because that could just be another nooby-mistake. Don't get this wrong, I don't think that skrammen is looking town at all I'm just way more scared that he might actually be town and my feared scenario 2) from earlier on is the right one. I'm not that scared on drem to be honest.
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On November 07 2011 07:19 Zanfada wrote:I think SK is scummier then Drem but both are on my scum list. I am going to be traveling for the next 4ish hours soon. There doesn't seem to be support for the SK lynch right now but he is at the top of my scum list. So I am going to vote for drem. Drem doesn't seem to be trying to get info, most of his posts are fluff and semi emotional reactions to other things. Also during day Toad and Drem had an interaction which was fairly odd. Both of them voted for each other and a little while later just unvoted each other. Very odd behavior. I am not sure if it scum or not, it is just odd behavior. Show nested quote +On November 05 2011 07:26 Zanfada wrote:
People I like are mafia or seem scumish to me Toad – Every town that has died has problems him, it is hard to believe it is a coincidence. Defending the hyshes bandwagon Drem – for day 1 stupidness, but looking at his day 2 stuff I am getting more of a town vibe, still on my watch list though, the hysh bandwagon saved his life imo something to look into Skram – Still on my watch list from day one, he froze up under pressure on day 1 and night 1. He didn’t really start posting again till the hysh bandwagon
##Vote Drem903
At that point in time I was very suspicious of drem and he suddenly said something along the lines "well and that makes is 6 townies vs 4 mafias which makes it even harder to get a majority". I figured a mafia would know how many mafias are in this game. However given what I posted today I think he might be tricking us. That's why I unvoted instantly.
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On November 07 2011 08:31 IMABUNNEH wrote: 3 for Drem, 3 for Toad, and a random vote from Harbinger on xsxksdkds.
How many people haven't voted? And I implore Harbinger to pick either one of them. I think voting Toad gives us far more information than voting Drem, but if we sit around with a no-lynch again we're going to be in trouble. Still waiting for an explanation to the xkskskcxkfd vote as well. At the moment it just looks like you're deliberately blocking a lynch for one reason or another.
I think you're totally wrong here to be honest. A lynch on me gives us ZERO information if I flip green. If I flip red it's obviously awesome for you as everyone flipping red would be. However if I flip green you just can't say "well let's target everyone who target toad" because pretty much everyone here once thought I'm mafia although most people stopped thinking that way after day1. The only reason people still want to lynch me is because of that vote mafia kill on risk and that lynch on hyshes. Let's be honest. We ALL thought that risk kill was weird and noone knew why they went for him so I am fine the reasoning behind it to try and get town back on me again. It's a towniekill + town is back on me. Everyone else would be just a townie kill. Therefore risk was the best possible kill for them at that point in time if you believe I am green. If you believe I am red mafia played stupid and would be better off killing someone like cyri or harb imo. And well that hyshes lynch was just weird. I can't blame ANYONE for going after hyshes after what he did and I still hope you don't blame me for going after him as well.
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Oh just something that came to my mind as well: Consider mafia is probably aware of their situation. If you guys lynch a townie you on lylo the next day and about to lose the game. Mafia is probably trying to get us lynch a townie right now. Now look at those people who we believe are most likely town and those who are somewhere inbetween or on peoples mafia top-5 list. People like harb are voting for drem, while those people who are an issue right now are voting for me. Is that a coincidence?
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crap a bunch of spelling mistakes on those two most recent posts. Have to go to bed in 20 mins or something like that so I'm really rushing right now If somethings unclear please ask me NOW. Sometimes there's words like "are" missing somewhere but I think it's stil readable :p
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On November 07 2011 09:14 Drem903 wrote:Show nested quote + Brief explanation of Drem vote: He's been playing the newbie card really hard all game. Granted this is a newbie game, but his 'mistakes' have always had the effect of helping out scum, whether it be blocking a lynch, or spreading misinformation regarding the town/mafia balance. He also originally says he doesn't have a good reason as to why he didn't vote Skrammen, then later says he didn't because he was worried a mis-lynch would have been much worse for town than a no-lynch was. Why would he go back and change his mind on this?
Because "no lynch, is better than a unsuported lynch" doesn't seem like a good reason in terms of this type of game. So i'm not going back on anything. Multiple people asked, so i expanded up on it a bit more so that they would have a satisfactory answer. It was not a good reason, but i had one. Also, how does spreading misinformation work when i was almost immediately corrected, and seemed to be the only one who made this mistake? Even then, i just said it'd be hard to get a majority, which was true until hyshes martyred himself for no reason. Also, as an aside, the thing about playing the newbie card. It was never brought up until i screwed up with he number of mafia. I still dont' get where i'm playing the newbie card, so some more info on that would actually be nice. you just mentioned it a lot. Look up my those posts I quoted earlier. And that's just those who are suspicious. I'm pretty sure I found a couple phrases along the line "well yeah, but this is my first game so dunno/ I'm noob". I can't ensure it right now since I did not quote them but I'm pretty sure I read that sometimes while going through your history and that is a common mafia tell. However in a noobgame it really is a not only a common mafiatell but also a commong townie tell as well :p The problem with your posts is that one post where you said that zanfa did not have to post stuff because everyone should know what he just posted, because everyone had to read the first post in our thread. And that's just nothing like your usual posts that involve yourself making mistakes like not knowing how many mafias this game has. Also as mentioned earlier, those mistakes turned out to help you all the time.
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On November 07 2011 09:23 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
No lynch is amazing for scum day one, deprives town of almost all information, check out the team melee mini mafia and note that they all agree that they must lynch day 1, and the setup isn't too different.
That's also an awesome answer to all those who tend to say I'm inconsistent. I just said the very same thing all time on day1. Go ahead and look it up. I was the guy saying that nolynch is the worst possible thing for townie on day1 (except for a 100% townie kill but since I only know my own 'status" for 100% that's never going to happen) and I kept telling you guys that we desperatly needed a lynch. So yes, I changed my votes from time to times (also check other games, that's actually not uncommon at all...) to ensure us a vote from my part on both days: Day 1 Skrammen and day2 hyshes once he went emo.
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I would be willing to swap to skrammen or choc. Skrammen looks about equally scummy as drem however if he DOES flip green I'm scared that people think I have to be red which is the reason behind my vote on drem over skrammen :p I still don't know what to say about choc and honestly I'm not sure if he's going to survive this day because he might be modkilled. But I need to know it right now (that's 0-15 minutes I'd say?) because I have to wake up in 7 hours again and I can't stay up much longer.
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so we basicly got skrammen drem and me who are willign to change to choc, although I'm just guessing drem's up for changing his vote because he hasn't answered that question yet. I don't think if that really is something awesome to be fair because I'd say 2 out of us are mafia right now (just a gut feeling) :p
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Summary: xsksc is willing to vote for either drem, skrammen or choc (if he has to) Toad is willing to vote for skrammen, drem or choc Skrammen is willing to vote for drem, choc or Toad Harb is willing to vote for drem, choc, Skrammen
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Actually I'm waiting for harb to make that start. As mentioned I guess someone in here is mafia and I don't know for certain which of us is that one guy. Since I'm quite sure harbs town I'd rather follow his vote than someone who's on that list as well although I can understand that skrammen is trying to get himself saved right now. If there's no post from harb until 10:10 TL.net time I'm going to vote for whoever got the most because again, I have to wake up in 6 hours and a half and usually should be asleep at this point in time mondays.
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On November 07 2011 10:07 IMABUNNEH wrote: Bunneh will vote for Toad or SKrammen. It's on Toad atm.
Ok that made the deal for me altough you changed it later on :p ##Unvote Drem903 ##Vote Chocolate
A question for our lovely host: Is it possible to "attach" my vote on harbs vote? I really have to go to sleep now... Is it possible to tell you just to vote for whoever harbs voting? I'm willing to vote for everyone out of those 3 (drem, choc, skrammen) and would it be possible to count my vote as whatever he voted? :p Don't want to ruin this because of time barriers
That would be the most awesome thing ever. If he votes for someone else (like me for some reason...) I obviously have to stick with my normal vote. If that's not possible (don't think you're willing to do that but I have to ask^^) just stick with what I voted
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crap But okay that's my last post for today, I'm offline now really have to go. I think harbs fine with a vote on choc since he asked for him first and I am still kind of scared to vote for skrammen. So I won't be able to change my vote anymore guys! Make sure you get this vote and see you tomorrow!
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ok those are the results before people switched:
On November 07 2011 10:18 kitaman27 wrote: Day 3 Update
Toadesstern sermokala IMABUNNEH Chocolate Skrammen Drem903
Drem903 xsksc Toadesstern Zanfada HarbingerOfDoom
Skrammen
Toadesstern
xsksc
HarbingerOfDoom
You have less than 2 hours remaining.
I'm going to say that out if those 5 on me it's probably 3 mafias. Ciry is the only one missing in that list which could be interpreted as a scummy trying to figure out if it's safte to vote for whoever they voted. However given our situation the same could go for a townie as well right now. I'm mentioning it right now so that people ignore it because I don't think we got time left for shenanigans like that.
That leaves us with a list of sermokala, IMABUNNEH, Chocolate, Skrammen, Drem903. Choc turned out to be green so it's 4 people left and imo 3 of them are mafia. We just should have lynched skrammen on day1 guys... or drem on day2... or drem on day3...
Let's look at their voting history: hackle/sermokala: Day1 on Toad, Day2 on nobody , Day3 on Toad Bunneh: Day1 on Toad, Day2 on hyshes , Day3 on Choc Skrammen: Day1 on Choc, Day2 on hyshes , Day3 on Choc Drem: Day1 on Zanfa, Day2 on hyshes , Day3 on Choc.
I'm leaning towards skrammen, drem, hackle/sermokala with bunneh on a 4th place as he was unsure if we should lynch choc. Skrammen the first guy who switched votes although I can't judge him for trying to safe himself and drem's just as fishy as always. Those are my thoughts right now.
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Crap we really screwed this lynch... As I mentioned those 4 above and what they've been voting I just realised choc was voting skrammen on day1... That could have been an easy town tell but we had so little time left
Right now I really don't care much about what people are suggestion that actually are on those scummy-lists. Right now I'd be willing to vote for hackle/sermo (that is tomorrow) and I'm going to be honest here: There needs to be a wonder to make me lynch someone else. If we lynch someone who actually is townie we're dead. However, every single scumlist I could imagine right now involves him I guess. Everyone else could be a strange set-up like cyri just said. Think about drem and think about skrammen. Those 2 are probably the next two for everyone here which would make a list out of hackle+drem+skrammen but as mentioned: it could be a weird set-up. I am still scared that skrammen might end up flipping green. I'm not as concerned about drem but I'm definatly even less concerned about hackle/sermo. The moment he flips red I'm willing to discuss what that means for us going through his history, taking a look at what he posted about those other 3 or 4 people who are suspicious right now. I still think we got a decent chance. Yes it is lylo if our medic isn't able to get a safe but if we manage to get a red tomorrow I think we got a pretty decent idea on who actually is mafia. If hackle/sermo flips red I think we won't have a problem lynching a second mafia at all out of a possible analysis (same would be for every mafia we lynch tomorrow). So it's all about that one lynch right now.
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sounds like frustration
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yeah, saw that one comming for the same reason as harb and ciry already pointed out
GL townies, you still got a decent chance
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On November 13 2011 13:29 Ciryandor wrote: GG (can't re anymore :p) I'm surprised nobody doubted me when I was scrambling all over on the last two days.
kind of. I was thinking about you earlier and asked you out really short that I don't like it and I didn't like your analyses at all which got me thinking but at that point in time I told you that I don't like it and completly ignored it because I thought if you really are mafia this is already gg. No way I could have made people lynch you ;D And I didn't really follow those last 2 days so I don't know about that sry.
So the only one I thought was mafia and turned out to be right was bunneh I guess. xsk... whatevs was my number #5 (think it was drem-hackle-skrammen-bunneh-xsk? and switched skrammen with bunneh)
But yeah great game by mafia. First 3 days really screwed us.
Edit: Game is over, I am allowed to edit now right? If not really really sorry but I don't see a reason for why I should not do so. Kita said in our observer-qt that he wanted to point out that he didn't like me talking about so many possibilities like I could be mafia (don't think he did yet, at least I haven't seen it) and just to explain it:
After hyshes died I send curu a depressed pm asking for what I should look because frankly, if what hyshes wasn't a scummy move I didn't know by what standards I should search for scummy moves (even if I got the same chance again, with a little magical fairy called kita telling me for some reason hyshes is 90% townie 10%mafia and those numbers were granted I still would not hesitate to do the exact same thing again to be honest). He replied that I should look at what people post and especially have a look at what they don't post. So I figured I'm better off explaining why me being mafia is bullshit :p Also, that's the reason I didn't like cyris analyses to begin with.
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On November 14 2011 10:07 wherebugsgo wrote: Good scum often don't follow known patterns, but not very many people on TL make good scum, so it's good to know. Things worked in this game for scum, IMO, because town didn't know what to look for, town didn't read, and town was inactive. In such situations scum can do whatever they want because they are never under any serious threat.
Yeah as mentioned, after hyshes flipped green I really was shocked and I don't think I was the only one. I didn't know what to look for anymore and hod wasn't exactly motivated himself while the rest of our group was a little active but noone took over
Edit: Also get TL Mafia XLVI started guys
Edit2: On November 14 2011 14:26 wherebugsgo wrote:
Then I almost died laughing on day 3 or whenever it was where you just utterly destroyed the thread with 10 massive posts in a row that just focused post by post on almost everyone in the game. That was so incredibly distracting, I give you props for that. You basically lured the rest of the townies into believing you were innocent on the sheer amount of effort you put into writing that. I mean come on, what scum would do that, right?
If they actually had the will to read about 1 or 2 of those post by post series they would see that most it was a gigantic mass of fluff. What on earth is the purpose of copying everyone's filter and then putting your own play-by-play to it, as town? It's a huge distraction; town wants relevant information to find scum, not fluff on everyone who is left alive. In future games, you should keep this in mind; if you do something like that you'll probably still dupe bad townies, but good ones will know that you're basically just destroying the thread.
I DID read 3 or 4 of them and what you said is just exactly what I thought. It's a shitload of text and yeah, he put a lot effort in it but there was just nothing special. A list of everything a person posted (that is everything interesting in cyris opinion) and that's about it. No actual analysis, just that huge wall of text, no conclusions (well a bunch, but no "big" conclusion to finish it or whatever). That's why I thought building a case on one or maybe two people is way better and kept it that way to finish it off with a nice concluion but the way cyri did it was just way too much :D The ratio of information per post was just incredible off. No way someone could have possible got all this stuff in his brain to make decicion based on ALL this afterwards. Got me thinking but again, at that point I thought it's either cyri=blue+skrammen=red or skrammen=blue+cyri=red and lynching cyri or even pressuring cyri wasn't an option for me (I thought) since attacking someone who's pretty much confirmed townie by most people isn't a usefull talent toi have for a guy who just ninja-dodged a lynch. The ironie behind all this: I think I was the guy who started that green read on cyri saying on day1 it totally looks like what cyri did last game and he's helping town day1. Day2 and Day3 he was falling in my lists but noone said a thing
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yeah saw it yesterday and wanted to /in but it was already full Would have loved to play a normal minie, except for the part that it's only 9 instead of 12 I guess. Next game will be a normal ( = big) game for me. Hopefully it'll start soon and I really have to post less in mafia games or I'll have a hard time once I AM mafia :p
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On November 15 2011 05:28 wherebugsgo wrote: Why is posting less necessary? I figured I was posting a bit too much the moment I read that wall of text from cyri :p Should have sticked to more concentrated information instead of those wall of texts
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