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Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 06 2011 17:43 GMT
#562
I've been looking a bit into Drem. I'm going to quote Ciry's analysis on his first posts, because I honestly have little to add to it.

+ Show Spoiler +
On November 01 2011 01:42 Ciryandor wrote:
Drem's post record is the following; and I feel he's worth looking at as well:

Show nested quote +
On October 30 2011 11:27 Drem903 wrote:
Whoever killed GMarshal must hate friendship, quite a bit.. and ponies. He is probably the worst type of scum to ever exist.

On October 30 2011 13:48 Drem903 wrote:
using extensive analysis, and some complex theory. I have decided to blame xsksc for the murder, because his name is impossible to pronounce,



I see a parallel with the last mini game, where scum wanted to jump the gun a bit using some very speculative reason to create an FoS on someone; but in this case this is tempered by the fact that he did not vote on xsksc.


Then when he realizes nobody really bit his bait:

Show nested quote +
On October 30 2011 15:39 Drem903 wrote:
If you're telling the truth that you're name really is just a random assortment of levels, then i will no longer blame you. I had assumed that you were possessed by some kind of devil, hence the inhuman name.


He plays it off as an attempt to stir conversation...

Show nested quote +
On October 31 2011 00:53 Drem903 wrote:
The thing with xsksc was pretty much just a joke to try and get the ball rolling. The only person that has really garnered any suspicion from me is bunneh, and that's only because his posts seem to be "posts for the sake of posting" rather than trying to really get anything dones.

He only seems to post to try and appear active.


Then goes on the offensive after someone does commit to a real vote on a person.

Show nested quote +
On October 31 2011 01:19 Drem903 wrote:
Are you able to change you're vote after you have voted?

If you're not able to change you're vote, then we also have to be very suspicious of zanfada. We both randomly chose a person to try and encourage discussion, but he actually voted. If you can't change you're vote, then that seems suspicious to me, as he seems in a hurry to lynch someone (anyone). If you can change you're vote, then it's no big deal, but it's still something to consider.


After that post, he basically leaves the suspicion on Zanfada, which by now looks good enough for other people to lynch.

Show nested quote +
On October 31 2011 05:36 Drem903 wrote:
On October 31 2011 05:04 IMABUNNEH wrote:

There was no coming to each others' defense, as he has said nothing in my defense.


Hmm good point, that'll teach me to reread better.

We still haven't heard from Skrammen though, and I still think Toad is dodgy. Since other than telling people they should post more posts, he hasn't really said anything.

Zanfada also has not posted at all since his initial accusation, so he should also be one to consider for now.


+ Show Spoiler +
[QUOTE]On November 01 2011 03:28 Drem903 wrote:
I'll be the first to admit that i am not particularly talkative, although that's mostly because i don't have regular computer access at school.. I have been reading the thread through, and although i still hold zanfada in suspicion, i will also have to agree that SKrammen has not really contributed that much either.

His only notable post just recounts information that everyone should know (though some may not have read the thread too carefully and could've forgotten). Although i feel the need to point out, that SKrammen did call out Zanfada for being hasty to vote (even if he could later rescind the vote). If they were both scum, then it wouldn't make sense for them to call suspicion upon one another.

Zanfada also hasn't posted in a while, and the only notable parts of his posts were: asking the blues to post more frequently (though not to identify themselves), and to defend himself from hacklebeasts own accusations.

So, the people i'm currently very suspicious of are: SKrammen and Zanfada. When i get more time to really look at everyone's posts this might change, but it's just those 2 for now.

##vote Zanfada


Here he continues with his accusations of Zanfada and votes for him. But in his post ciry said this:
+ Show Spoiler +
After that post, he basically leaves the suspicion on Zanfada, which by now looks good enough for other people to lynch.


Now, at this time other people had been making suspicion of Zanfada, myself including. Only after this did he decide to vote him. He attempts to stay under the radar by voting a secondary lynch target, and kept his vote when the bandwagon came and went.

His defence:
+ Show Spoiler +

@Harbinger. I voted for Zanfada because he, at the time, was the person i was most suspicious of. In retrospect i should have looked at SKrammen's posts more, but at the time he [SKrammen] wasn't the most suspicious to me. Now, although SKrammen is still suspicious (he completely ignored toad's analysis a page back, and only responded to defend himself from Zanfa), i am starting to put a lot more thought in the the claim that Toadesstern is a major suspect. (Zanfa i am now unsure of, and hope to see more posts from him before i say anything more on him).

Mostly because he seems adamant about convincing us that he is town, and constantly restates that point over and over again. Which seems like something mafia would do if they were desperate to avoid a lynch.


As I've stated more than once when I looked at the voting patterns; it would make sense for the mafia to avoid being on the list of voters when I got lynched and flipped green.

A second post where he defends his actions:

+ Show Spoiler +
I guess i don't honestly have a good reason as to why i did not vote for SKrammen in the end. The thing was i was only suspicious of those 2, and the one i was suspicious of to the point of voting was Zanfada. Although i was reary of SKrammen, i did not see him as suspicious to the point of lynching.

Although it is noteworthy to say that Toad does have a point about Risk not really posting that much. He's actively defending SK, although he immediately tries to spurn attention back on SK when he is called into question, and a few of his posts are just updates on him lurking. He has also tried to get people to look at Toad.

So if Toad is mafia, then risk probably isn't. If risk is mafia, then toad isn't, and SKrammen is also mafia because risk wouldn't defend him if he wasn't.


Again, this does not really change anything as far as I am concerned. But I am not sure if these "If x is mafia then y is town"-arguments are always valid. What if we lynch toad only to find out he is a townie?

+ Show Spoiler +
@SKrammen

If i had changed my vote to you, and you flipped green, everyone who voted for you would have been under heavy suspicion of being scum. So that's 7 people, of which i was 1, so what reasoning would i have to block you're vote if i was mafia? I wouldn't be that much more suspicious than any of the other 6.

For every towny that dies the mafia becomes stronger. If was mafia and had changed my vote to you, and i had said you were suspicious so it's not unlikely for a person to decide to agree with the majority if they had similar convictions, then why would i not vote for you to get you out of the way? The fact is, i didn't have enough conviction to accuse you as i didn't feel that you were necessarily scum. I wasn't convinced enough to take that risk. Bad townie play? possibly. Even worse mafia play? i would believe so.


He has a point now. But I would like someone elses input on this here - to me it makes sense for him not wanting to be one of the people who voted for me, but would you consider it bad mafia play to block it? I'm not so sure anymore.

I would like for you to tell us what you feel about Zanfada, and who do you think is Town?



The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 06 2011 19:39 GMT
#564
On November 07 2011 04:23 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
So I thought I'd have more time now, as the original plan was my gf got back this evening, but instead she'll apparently be back within the next 15 minutes now. As such, I don't think I'll be able to make a big case post now (maybe I'll still get one up before the deadline? :-/), but I thought I'd make some contributions while I can.

@Skrammen regarding Drem, possibly a bit outdated, but: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=278558&currentpage=23#444
Might have the info you want.

Unless something comes up to change my mind, I am willing to vote for the following 4 people today: Skrammen, Chocolate, xsksc, Drem. With a preference in order of xsksc, Chocolate, Skrammen, Drem.

Should be back in time to change as somehow I doubt this one will garner enough votes to ensure a lynch, but for now
##vote xsksc


How did I miss that... Well, I guess that answers it then, unless you got something else to add, Drem? I've also been thinking about somthing else:

+ Show Spoiler +
His only notable post just recounts information that everyone should know (though some may not have read the thread too carefully and could've forgotten). Although i feel the need to point out, that SKrammen did call out Zanfada for being hasty to vote (even if he could later rescind the vote). If they were both scum, then it wouldn't make sense for them to call suspicion upon one another.


Wouldnt it make perfect sense for us to FoS each other if we were both mafia? And wouldnt it make sense for you to put suspicion on Zanfada if you two were mafiabuddies?

I know this is nothing solid nor any evidence of anything, I'd just like some input on this, because I'm not able to make up my mind about this. The activity has really dropped here the for the last few hours, and the lynch deadline is coming up fast.
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 06 2011 23:48 GMT
#578
Well. If we dont get a lynch done it will get us nowhere, but if we lynch a townie it will probably be worse.

##vote Toadsstern
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 07 2011 00:41 GMT
#597
Well, this indecision is going to kills us. Yes, im willing to push for Choc or Drem. I cant push for a lynch on myself tho. Hyshes tried that!
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 07 2011 00:56 GMT
#603
I guess someone has to start.

##unvote Toadesstern
##vote Chocolate
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 07 2011 02:28 GMT
#627
Well... If we have no lynch at all we will probably not make it. If we lynch a townie - even less so. I hope you're right about this HoD.
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 07 2011 02:34 GMT
#629
On November 07 2011 11:31 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
You should have started a case along with a vote on someone when you were doing all your PbP's earlier, you have plenty of town-cred too you know! Wasn't aware me not being able to make a big case would put us in such a last-minute bind >.>

Also, lol @skrammen starting the shift when he was one of the two I mentioned as people that I was willing to lynch that seemed lynchable. I wonder if we could have gone for sermokala...I kinda wanted to give him a chance to compensate for hackle's complete lack of contribution, but so far his main contributions have been poorly argued at best. And you know, accusing me isn't going to win any points in my book either :-P


Oh I wouldnt go as far as call it an accusation, I just hope your instinct on this is right on target
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 07 2011 02:41 GMT
#632
So we have 10 players remaining, if lynch goes through we'll lose 1 and if we dont get divine intervention again they will kill another 1, so that makes 8 remaining, of which 3 maybe scum, 2 if we get this right. If we have 8 players where 3 are scum, there are 4 who arent, we are 2 players down from achieveing vote majority, and if we lynch a scum, we are 1 player down from achieving vote majority? So, basically, we need a scum lynch AND divine intervention?
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 07 2011 03:03 GMT
#635
Fuckin ponies. I'm going to sleep and silently judge people now.
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 08 2011 07:17 GMT
#691
Foiled again! Curse you mathematics!

But for you who has me pegged as scum, I'd quite like you to explain it with more reason than "oh well he looks scummy i guess" and i'll answer you once I get home from the hospital later today.
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 08 2011 16:22 GMT
#694
On November 08 2011 21:55 IMABUNNEH wrote:
Urgh. I've said from Day 1, one of Toad and SKrammen are obviously red, and the other green as a result.

But is SKrammen REALLY that obvious?

We originally thought that risk.nuke kill was potentially scum trying to shift attention away from him, since it implicated anyone except for him.

I'm going to go with the obvious here. SKrammen absolutely has to be scum. I don't know if anyone doesn't have him on their scum list anymore either. So an early vote to make my intentions known:

##vote SKrammen

Sorry to Toad for suspecting you for so long It seems that as soon as a couple more of us came round to believing you were town, you got punished for it. That makes me think the scum are the low-middle activity people for certain.


So, why do I absolutely have to be a scum?
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 09 2011 18:44 GMT
#716
Well. At the start of the game I was pretty sure that Toad was scum, mostly because he was writing a lot without saying much. I think Ciry has a good point regarding the vote patterns, and I am pretty sure drem is a scum at this point. I said earlier that this is exactly what the mafia wants; Toad was pretty adamant about me being scum, and they knew we were both townies, and thus they WANT me to get lynched today.

I am also curious as to why I would want to kill Toad if I were scum. You lot seem pretty damn set on that either of us HAS to be scum, and killing him would not be beneficial to me if I was a mafia.

Last minute bandwagons with HoD doesnt seem to be the way to go; so I'm going with my gut here.

@Sermokala

+ Show Spoiler +
1. Bandwagoning is the most effective strategy of the mafia. If you can get a train started on someone thats not mafia its worth it to organize the whole mafia to support it. His vote I feel really started the train.


Yet you readily jump on the wagon without much to justify it, and you have posted nothing where you suspect me. You tried to push for Toad, but that didnt go as planned so you nightkilled him instead, which is as I suspect, exactly what you wanted. I also see you are defending both Drem and xsksc.

##vote Drem903

The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 09 2011 19:29 GMT
#721
On November 10 2011 03:44 Skrammen wrote:
Well. At the start of the game I was pretty sure that Toad was scum, mostly because he was writing a lot without saying much. I think Ciry has a good point regarding the vote patterns, and I am pretty sure drem is a scum at this point. I said earlier that this is exactly what the mafia wants; Toad was pretty adamant about me being scum, and they knew we were both townies, and thus they WANT me to get lynched today.

I am also curious as to why I would want to kill Toad if I were scum. You lot seem pretty damn set on that either of us HAS to be scum, and killing him would not be beneficial to me if I was a mafia.

Last minute bandwagons with HoD doesnt seem to be the way to go; so I'm going with my gut here.

@Sermokala

+ Show Spoiler +
1. Bandwagoning is the most effective strategy of the mafia. If you can get a train started on someone thats not mafia its worth it to organize the whole mafia to support it. His vote I feel really started the train.


Yet you readily jump on the wagon without much to justify it, and you have posted nothing where you suspect me. You tried to push for Toad, but that didnt go as planned so you nightkilled him instead, which is as I suspect, exactly what you wanted. I also see you are defending both Drem and xsksc.

##vote Drem903


The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 10 2011 00:17 GMT
#726
I still think Drem is a legit lynch. But I hope we get gosumove by medic.

##unvote Drem903
##vote Sermokala
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 10 2011 22:10 GMT
#756
Unless they hit the medic I think it just might give us a clearer picture.
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 11 2011 09:59 GMT
#780
Well, I guess its crunchtime now. I am the medic. I stopped the hit on night2, but fucked it up the other nights.
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 11 2011 10:38 GMT
#781
I've been trying to lay low this game, and there are probably a lot of the more experienced players lurking this thread who is facepalming at that, because it hasnt worked all that well.

But since I am already taking a risk and probably next in line for a nightkill now, should I tell you who is confirmed townie? He would probably die next night then I guess.

I'll look at your answers once I get home from the hospital this afternoon.
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 11 2011 16:26 GMT
#784
I feel that both Sermokala and Drem are scum. Sermo's words seem pretty forced and not genuine, and I've already mention why I think that Drem is a scum. There isnt a lot to go on with xskcd but he could very well be one aswell. I'm not sure about yourself, bunneh, but I got nothing solid to go on. At this point, it would be silly to assume that either ciry or hod is scum, because if they are, they are playing us so well I just might cry.

I do not at all like the deafitist attitude of Sermo, and it reminds me too much of hyshes. But I dont think he will flip green.
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 11 2011 18:59 GMT
#790
Well, allright then. They tried to kill you, Harbinger. I guess thats why I followed your bandwagon on Chocolate, because you were the only one I could with certainty say were a townie. This will probably make you next in line for a night kill, but lets hope its worth it.

Why do you think that both sermo and drem can be scum tho?
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 11 2011 22:12 GMT
#795
That I did. I expect apology muffins! We still have another 26~ hours, yes?
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
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