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Cosmic Horror Mafia - Page 3

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chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
August 31 2011 14:43 GMT
#600
Sevryn

These are the only two posts of his that I feel can be analyzed to any degree.

On August 24 2011 08:17 Sevryn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 24 2011 05:38 TheFerryman wrote:
Ladies and Gentelmen. The Eldricht horror has just successfully ousted himself. Well done wiggles.

Let me ask you gentelmen a question, what is the horror afraid of? Two things,
1.) the lynch, as it kills him and makes him incapable of winning, and conversely town losing too fast, since then he won't be able to infect everyone in time. This means that the horror is going to try to present an organized, pro-town stance and appearance, so expect things like long policy/mechanics posts and attempts at directing town attention early in the game, and later focus on scumhunting, probably successfully getting scum lynched. He obviously wants to draw scum hits, since they increase the number of insane people in the town. All this means he is going to try to *appear* town, while pushing to resolve his fear #2

2.) The psychologist, as every night the psychologist is alive the horror's wincondition becomes a little harder to carry out. For this reason expect plans that involve the psychologist claiming, and plans that require mass claims. Remember the sooner the psychologist is dead, the sooner the horror can carry out his wincondition.

With that in mind, lets take a good look at Wiggles first post of the game. My comments in spoilers inside the quote

On August 24 2011 02:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
##Vote: Eiii Where you at?

Killing Eldricht would be nice to get rid of the third party, but it's not the biggest priority for town on Day 1, because it takes him a while to achieve his win condition. (Like at least 7 nights if greens aren't killed/lynched, unrealistic, I know, but just an example) As well, we have the psychologist who can cure insanity.

+ Show Spoiler +
Right here, he is already downplaying the danger the horror poses to the town, I'm betting that if he is ousted later in the game he'll try explain how lynching the horror is a "waste of a lynch" when we could be hitting "real scum". Also, notice how he is *already* taking about the psychologist. Its the number one thing on his mind. He couldn't even get past the first paragraph without worrying about it


So, to talk about the set-up a little, do people think it would be a good idea for the psychologist to claim his target at the end of night 1? It makes the psychologist claim early, but that way if he dies, then we have probably found the Eldricht Horror. The only way this wouldn't be the case, would be if mafia shot him, but then he could just claim earlier. (Because mafia don't really want to shoot him right away without reason, as he keeps them from losing the game to insanity as well)

+ Show Spoiler +
Look at this magnificent plan to get his hands on the psychologist, for a 1/13 chance of losing outright he gets to kill his #1 threat to victory. Plus, he is going to be so "pro-town" the worrying about the psychologist checking *him* won't be an issue. Look at point 1 and 2 above, here is wiggles, promoting a plan that reveals the psychologist yet appears pro-town. this is the giveaway that wiggles has only one focus. Notice how the mafia is only mentioned in passing and the medic isn't even a concern. Its because to wiggles those things aren't important, in his mind those take second place to the much more relevant psychologist that stands in his way, and of course to appearing town


There's both Pro's and Con's to this, and it depends on the relative threat that we perceive the Eldricht Horror as.

Pros:

-Lets us catch the Eldricht Horror more easily, knowing as soon as the Psychologist dies.
-Let's us coordinate the Psychologist a little (don't know if this is necessary)

Cons:

-Mafia know not to shoot the Psychologist, reducing the pool of townies (1 person so not that terrible)
-Mafia can screw with town by killing the Psychologist and trying for a mislynch on his target.

Personally, I don't really think it's worth it after actually writing out the Pros and Cons, but I don't think I'm going to delete this post because I spent like 5 minutes writing it, and it provides a good start for actual discussion. In my opinion, a better option is actually having the psychologist bread-crumb his visits, so that way, if he ever dies and flips, then we have a list of players cleared of being the Eldricht Horror, and we have a possible target for who the Third Party actually is.

+ Show Spoiler +
and now he is backtracking, while still pushing for the psychologist to "breadcrumb", which wiggles, our mega clue master will be able to catch. Notice how he isn't even supporting his own plan, its a "point of discussion". In other words, he is hoping a foolish townie is going to pick it up and run with it, or even better a stupid psychologist is going to think "huh, this isn't bad, I better do as wiggles suggested". A real townie, someone who cares about whether the town loses or wins is not going to propose what he considers a bad plan, especially not a veteran player like wiggles, who knows that as a rule of thumb, towns are stupid and tend to subscribe to bad ideas. BY proposing a poor idea as a "point of discussion" wiggles is pushing all the objectives of a smart horror.


Discuss!

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Wiggles is the edritch horror.


This is a strong case for wiggles being the horror.
I think that we should focus on the mafia first and the horror second. because our win condition is all threats to the town are eliminated while the scum is just to be equal to the town aligned players which means we are essentially 9v3. mafia has one kp so assuming worst case scenario we lose 2 per day/night cycle so 7v3 second day 5v3 third day. If we reach the case of 5v3 i propose we make it go to a no lynch so that after the mafia kill someone it will be 4v3 instead of instead of a 5v3. I think we should do these in all cases such as 4v2 make it a 3v2 and 1 v 3 make it a 1v2.

If we find a good mafia target for a day one lynch i will vote for the mafia because if it gets to where we would abstain for voting for a more town favored lylo we can lynch the horror instead or just save the horror for a day we don't have a good mafia suspect(that could be today but it is still too soon to tell)
##vote Mr. Wiggles
I will change my vote if we find a good mafia to lynch


Reading this over first I went WTF SCUM. Then I thought about it. Everything sevryn says here is based in thought that benefits town. His proposal of a no-lynch near the end game actually benefits us, because it gives us a much higher chance of actually hitting scum, and gives us the final play rather than mafia. This is probably the only scenario in which I would feel a no-lynch is pro-town, and sevryn gets green cred from me for suggesting it. He also explains why he feels mafia are a better first target than EA. (Now I understand your thought process Jackal)


On August 29 2011 00:28 Sevryn wrote:

i Just woke up and have not read the last page of the thread if you look over the thread you will notice that everything that "links" me to jeejee and tnkted. are all posts made by someone else. moreover the subtle disconnects attack on me was an incredibly weak attack. the fact that I didn't defend myself or try to distance myself from tnkted all shows something IMO. of course tnkted did almost get lynched first day which is why you think he is scum besides the fact that palmar died night one. which is weird when you consider he was pretty sure that tnkted was townie. when we lynched jeejee if he flips red if there is no better case we could lynch tnkted but your case against me seems to be long and well thought out but it relies on both tnkted and jeejee being scum.


This post is also true. My entire attack on him was based on things that JeeJee said, not things that sevryn said. I believe he also states a suspicion of tnkted, but that could just be a misunderstanding on my part.

Summary
sevryn has pro-town interests and is not mafia. Slight chance of EA, but not likely.


chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
August 31 2011 23:44 GMT
#627
I'm still heavily leaning scum on tnkted. His narrowly avoiding being lynched D1 feels off to me.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
September 01 2011 00:30 GMT
#630
Cyber and Wiggles both voted for me.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
September 01 2011 13:25 GMT
#640
Thanks for the reminder to vote Hesmyrr

My top two candidates right now are tnkted and Mr. Wiggles. The majority of players are going for Wiggles, so in the interest of not having an extension/no-lynch, I will vote for him as well. Although I would prefer to see tnkted lynched today, that is not feasible at the moment.

tnkted should be lynched tomorrow for sure.

##Vote Mr. Wiggles
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
September 02 2011 01:06 GMT
#666
At this point I say the psych should STOP visiting who they think the EA is. Why? Because all players that have flipped so far are sane. That means there is a very high number of insane players and the EA is close to winning. Instead, visit who you did the first night (assuming they're still alive). If the EA has any degree of intelligence they will have visited this person the night after, because they're pretty much guaranteed a safe insanity. Comprende?
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
September 02 2011 23:17 GMT
#679
D:

Good luck you guys
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
September 08 2011 00:29 GMT
#786
On September 08 2011 09:19 Jackal58 wrote:
I blew your fucking head off. Unfortunately you didn't have a head and it blew Chaos13's head off.


I knew there was something off about you finding that breadcrumb.

Sorry for my shitty play the first two days here, I hope I improved it some after that. I was busy and my mind was occupied with things other than mafia, but I got it sorted out and had more time to devote to the game. Kudos to Ferryman for his scumhunting abilities.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
September 08 2011 02:15 GMT
#790
On September 08 2011 10:22 Jackal58 wrote:
Forumite - Why didn't you out me? You knew I was scum.


I can see exactly why he didn't.

What happens when a faction is eliminated? Skip a night phase. What does that mean? Another lynch. How many anti-town targets are they looking for now? One. Does finding scum as third party or third party as scum gain you an ounce of town cred? No.

It was in the best interests of both of you to work with the other, especially considering that one could get pissed off if they end up being lynched and start really attacking the other, and then when EA flips town goes "Oh look he knew who scum was" or when scum flips "Oh look he must have hit the EA and knew who he was."

Which, of course, is exactly what happened.
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