EPTMy argument against you was that your entire style of play was different (more fluff posts not actually writing up analysis or doing scum hunting).
TL Mafia XLIV - Page 51
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
My argument against you was that your entire style of play was different (more fluff posts not actually writing up analysis or doing scum hunting). | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On August 23 2011 12:36 Mig wrote: How about the fact he voted for hiro because he didn't give any reasons behind his vote. Then voted me without listing a single reason and he had said there was no case against me. Are you really arguing that isn't a contradiction. I mean come on. It was 48 hours apart. He voted for you after chaoser wrote his post that I quoted above. There's nothing wrong with that. Chaoser brought new information to the table and DropBear was convinced of it. Jackal never really said anything about you yesterday. Are you going to call him out for voting you today as well? I agree that DropBear is suspicious and has issues, this isn't about him though. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On August 23 2011 12:27 chaos13 wrote: How the fuck...? Did you even read my post? No, I think you're *possible* (please note that, as I'm not sure on you and if you look closely you'll be able to see that I asked others for their opinion on you) mafia because you seemed very sure of him being town, and then apparently went back and re-read his posts, at which point you found more reason to believe he was town but somehow seemed less sure of your town read on him. If you were so sure he was town, why did you have to go back and re-read? Yep, I did. I reread Palmar's posts because VE was pushing for his lynch and I felt at the time that he was town. Also, I said I was analyzing the posts of people that we had suspicions about, and that I did: On August 23 2011 00:58 wherebugsgo wrote: I'll add palmar to my list of analyses. Time to read his posts again Filter me again and you can go back to find this post, and I'd also suggest that you look at the thread in context where I post these. Also I was making sure I wasn't missing anything that VE might have caught. Palmar has posted a fair amount. I've always been fairly certain that Palmar was town but I can't help having doubts when people keep voting on him. I'm open to ideas from other people. However, if you're asking about my OWN opinion about Palmar, it's that he is town. In my attempt to facilitate discussion I can see how it might seem that I was somewhat unsure after rereading his posts. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On August 23 2011 12:41 Mig wrote: Also I did call out jackal wtf? And he gave me his reason asked me a question and I responded. Yes I just reread that now. My mistake. On August 23 2011 12:41 Mig wrote: No but I am saying he voted for hiro because hiro didn't list any reasons. He immediately turns around and votes me listing ZERO reasons. Okay I see that as well. Your post against DB didn't say this though (or at least I got the wrong impression about what you were saying). | ||
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Curu
Canada2817 Posts
On August 23 2011 12:27 Foolishness wrote: I don't know what OMGUS means. If you care about the town then type out what you want to say, don't hide behind acronyms. Mostly meta? I accused him of bad posting yesterday. Chaoser found a contradiction today. No meta there. I look at his past games to verify my accusations. So far it's not in his favor. If his attitude this game was like when he was town (XLIII for example) then I would rethink my analysis and would not be pushing him this hard. In response to "you don't think there's some lazy vote parking and contradiction there either?" no I don't. If there is point one out to me. Chaoser found a contradiction in Mig's post. That's pretty good in itself. I bring forth these arguments about "meta" because they serve as further evidence that I'm on the right track. You clearly did not read the last paragraph of my previous post. I'm not building a case on this. I'm not building a case on this. I'm not building a case on this. My case is built upon his contradiction and bad day 1 posting. Everything else I've said only builds on top of that. Look at the big picture. The individual pieces are what make the big picture, and that's where you find the mafia. Examining one individual piece does not find you mafia. For those that are wondering, I think xtfftc is town at the moment. I'm not thoroughly convinced, but the evidence against Mig just fits too well together. Means Oh My God U Suck - basically that you vote for someone because they voted for you. As for meta, Kurumi's game was the only one where I've seen Mig actually matter Day 1. The other games I've played with him as Town - WaW2, AA, and somewhat Personality, Mig had been pretty much useless. Meta arguments can be spun either way for or against Mig. That it continued well into Day 2 prompted me to think he might be scum but he has come back and started contributing. Yeah it looks terrible that it was after he was called out for it, but that's not strong enough for me to put him above the other candidates. He has terrible posts, so do a plethora of other people. I'm not saying discard Mig completely because he's shown up, but he's not as high up the priority list for me. I did read the last paragraph of your post but I disagree with using it at all. BrownBear, Mig, chaoser, Jackal, chaos, and whoever else you named get scumpoints because you got shot? My first game I ever played with you I found out that the fact you weren't a N1 shot was an indication that you were likely Mafia, it's not unreasonable to expect people to figure these things out. Speculating on night hits is just silly. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
You cannot lynch any person on 1 piece of evidence. Any piece of evidence against someone on it's own is a terrible argument. It's when you find multiple pieces that fit together than you have a mafia. Sevyrn was a good example. Lots of small pieces made him look like mafia. But the pieces didn't quite fit together. | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
On August 23 2011 11:34 Foolishness wrote: Heading by the policy known as "VisceraEyes's mafia list is always wrong" we can safely say we have 4 confirmed townies now. Good to know I'm not useless. :D | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
Right now we have a lot of votes on xtfftc but we have at least one (I think more?) person saying he believes xt is town. We need to get opinions and additional analysis on him. I made my own analysis of him earlier (filter my posts) and am willing to lynch him if we cannot find evidence that suggests he is a townie. On Mig I am currently unsure, this whole Foolish/chaoser/Mig business is getting a little confusing. I know you, Curu, said that one of Mig/chaoser is probably mafia but I think we need to substantiate that assumption before relying on it. IMO it's still possible that they're both town. I mean, we have several possibilities here, in my opinion: -one of foolish/chaoser is mafia and they have thrown a vote on Mig, the mafia to act like they're contributing and the town because they've been convinced -they're both mafia and Mig is town -Mig is mafia and foolish/chaoser are both town -they're all town I have a feeling all 3 may be town, in which case you all are wasting time. The first scenario is least likely IMO but I feel that the other 3 are all currently possible. I guess it's also remotely possible that there is a busing attempt (or a fake bus) going on but I really doubt that. I suggest you guys also consider my post on Trotske that I recently posted. Several players in the game right now look like scum. We have half the day left to make our decision. Let's lynch a mafia tonight. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On August 23 2011 13:30 wherebugsgo wrote: Alright, last thoughts before I head to bed, I'll be back in 8-12 hours. Right now we have a lot of votes on xtfftc but we have at least one (I think more?) person saying he believes xt is town. We need to get opinions and additional analysis on him. I made my own analysis of him earlier (filter my posts) and am willing to lynch him if we cannot find evidence that suggests he is a townie. On Mig I am currently unsure, this whole Foolish/chaoser/Mig business is getting a little confusing. I know you, Curu, said that one of Mig/chaoser is probably mafia but I think we need to substantiate that assumption before relying on it. IMO it's still possible that they're both town. I mean, we have several possibilities here, in my opinion: -one of foolish/chaoser is mafia and they have thrown a vote on Mig, the mafia to act like they're contributing and the town because they've been convinced -they're both mafia and Mig is town -Mig is mafia and foolish/chaoser are both town -they're all town I have a feeling all 3 may be town, in which case you all are wasting time. The first scenario is least likely IMO but I feel that the other 3 are all currently possible. I guess it's also remotely possible that there is a busing attempt (or a fake bus) going on but I really doubt that. I suggest you guys also consider my post on Trotske that I recently posted. Several players in the game right now look like scum. We have half the day left to make our decision. Let's lynch a mafia tonight. AFAIK, Palmar is the only one who's said xtfftc is town, and it was a 1 line post with absolutely nothing to back it up, and it was very soon after I threw my vote on xtfftc, so I think he's just doing it to be contradictory to me. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
Myself/chaoser/palmar/BB all had votes and suspicions placed on them. You were one of the only vets who wasn't suspected. I think you probably take a shot almost every night unless the mafia were afraid of you being protected. And I understand that you are just using being shot as a small part of why I am mafia but the fact that you are using it at all shows how weak your case against me is because realistically there is virtually no connection there. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On August 23 2011 14:14 Mig wrote: Btw foolish if you were mafia who would you have shot last night? Myself/chaoser/palmar/BB all had votes and suspicions placed on them. You were one of the only vets who wasn't suspected. I think you probably take a shot almost every night unless the mafia were afraid of you being protected. And I understand that you are just using being shot as a small part of why I am mafia but the fact that you are using it at all shows how weak your case against me is because realistically there is virtually no connection there. I'm pretty sure one person said something nasty about me. Although I might be confusing whoever it was with chaos13 today. There is a connection; as you said it's a small one. You're not looking at the big picture. I could take one small piece of your argument against DropBear and rip it to shreds if I wanted (I already pointed out one minor detail). As a whole your argument is sound; DropBear has not been posting with the town's interest in mind, he flat out does not seem to care at all, and he's conveniently missing a lot (not just because of time difference either). | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
So if I take that out completely I am left with just your meta arguments. Which basically consist of me not posting with enough confidence, except for my first attack on sevryn which was too confident? Right now you seem dead set on tunneling me with a much weaker case than the one against dropbear just because you are suspicious of me. If palmar/chaoser had posted against db I think you would be a lot more open to it. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On August 23 2011 14:34 Mig wrote: Right I understand it is just part of your overall case, but my point is I don't really think it even connects me. I mean if you were one of the mafia who would you have shot? I have a hard time believing you wouldn't have shot yourself. So if I take that out completely I am left with just your meta arguments. Which basically consist of me not posting with enough confidence, except for my first attack on sevryn which was too confident? Right now you seem dead set on tunneling me with a much weaker case than the one against dropbear just because you are suspicious of me. If palmar/chaoser had posted against db I think you would be a lot more open to it. No I'm pretty open to it. It's just right now I believe you are the best lynch. The bandwagon on xtfftc is too easy (surely you can admit to that as well). I'm definitely for killing the bear (although you should have chosen the other bear). If you are town I'm a bit confused on why the bandwagon isn't on you. You're a reliable player surely getting you lynched is much preferable over xtfftc (assuming he's town). It's pretty simple, at the beginning of the day all they had to do was post "Foolishness is probably town, we can trust his judgment, Vote Mig". Strangely enough two people did do that, DropBear and Varpulis (the others all are active and/or gave reasoning). Varpulis gave reasoning but it wasn't much. I believe he's town at this point but I could probably be convinced otherwise; his track record isn't the greatest. So why aren't you on the chopping block then? I was hoping to save this information for later but there are a few notable people who have diverted attention away from the accusations against you (both yesterday and today). Surely if the mafia was competent they wouldn't let one of their own get lynched this early in the game. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
And did you see a single person defend me before I defended myself? There is no way my play has been so scummy or your case so strong that if I am mafia that not even 1 would post defending me. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
How did you not see the fact that sevryn was going to flip town on day 1? That's very unusual for you. | ||
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xtfftc
United Kingdom2343 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On August 23 2011 11:37 Curu wrote: xtffc's "two town kills" slip definitely needs to be looked at, and I don't buy his defense. He describes town kills as kills that the Town makes, but that has absolutely nothing to do with modkills. Town does not control modkills, sick slip????? Of course townkills have nothing to do with modkills. Townkills are made by town, modkills by mods. What is the problem? On August 23 2011 08:49 GreYMisT wrote: I posted an analysis of a post by xfftc early on. here it is as well: And I already pointed out what was wrong with this: On August 23 2011 07:17 BrownBear wrote: This is interesting. Can't say it wasn't welcome at the time considering how much Palmar was tunnelling me, but I go back to it and it feels rather strange. He wants "one less player who throws meaningless accusations around" sounds a lot like he wants "no players throwing accusations around" because at that point Palmar was really the only guy who was putting any suspicion on anyone (there was the sevryn thing, but that wasn't born out of someone accusing sevryn, that was more born out of someone noticing a pretty obvious slip sevryn made). Thing is, if nobody's accusing anyone, that's a veeery pro-mafia atmosphere. I suppose from the other side, it could be seen as him wanting to clean up the thread a little bit, but generally, going for the guy with the most posts on day 1 means you want to make day 2 a lot quieter - not a very town-centric viewpoint unless the guy with the most posts is really obvious scum (which Palmar isn't). When you look at this post, you have to look at the context as well - what else was happening at this point of the game. The filter option is great but no statement should be considered without a background. I liked Palmer's strategy and decided to play along. Before my vote on Palmer (and the few other votes that followed), most of his accusations were one-liners. Afterwards, he presented a well-written case against you. It wasn't enough to get you lynched on day 1 but it was a start. On August 23 2011 07:17 BrownBear wrote: Pretty weak and short reasoning to change your opinion and jump on a bandwagon dude. At least your Palmar accusation had some balls behind it. Again, context. When I was asked about Sevryn, I said I wanted to read his response and to analyse his earlier posts further but I needed some time because I had to answer to a lot of other stuff as well. But Curu was not happy with this and said "I don't want a carefully crafted opinion or analysis, I want to know what you think about Sevyrn right now". I gave him that - and now apparently I am guilty for the very same reason. A little more explanation - but still not really any contribution. He wants to see the saga of me/DB/Palmar develop further... At that point it had pretty much settled into Palmar tunnelling me and Dropbear being mostly forgotten. DB was mostly forgotten but I wasn't happy with this. Shows a little bit of a lack of paying attention to the thread... at that point Sev wasn't a modkill candidate (unless the fact that he had voted but unvoted meant he would get modkilled, but I don't think that's how it works. If I'm wrong, then nvm.) Context. How can you seriously say that this shows "a lack of paying attention to the thread"?! Just read Wherebugsgo's post that I was replying to. The question is whether he will get modkilled enough to allow us another lynch target. Again, if anyone isn't paying attention, it is those who build cases against me. Also, there was no chance I was gonna get lynched at that point. After Sevryn, you were the one with most votes at the time ^^ Raises the concept of a no-lynch (this was in the period where everyone was thinking "wait a minute what if Sev's just dumb town?). It was just after midnight in Europe and the question was whether we should stick to Sevryn or unvote him. There wasn't time for anything else. It would be good to bear this in mind tonight as well because unless there are two strong candidates, a switch isn't going to happen in the last few hours before the deadline. So you're saying, instead of just voting and going to pass out, he voted late, then decided to switch for the guy you've been pushing all game... and this makes him scummy? I don't follow your logic at all, care to explain this one? No, he didn't decide to switch. Everyone else who was online was considering switching to Rayzor when Mig came in and voted for Sevryn. Although your case is much better thought through than the arguments against me presented by Supersoft, Quicksilver and Greymist, you have also overlooked quite a few of the facts. :/ I'd really appreciate it if Hiro answers to this: Well you could have asked me why it is that I don't want people throwing random accusations and I would have explained to you what is my stance on the issue. Why it is that you decided to vote before enquiring is beyond me. And finally, there is a limit to how much I can read and write. I can not keep on answering to the same accusations again and again and do a proper analysis of someone else at the same time. Those of you who are unhappy with my previous contributions might want to consider giving me a breather. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=0Aolx7msuf_IvdHZoc05pSE9neVFWOWU2RTVYWWpBRmc&output=html | ||
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