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Actually, with that said, and with the OMGUS behavior he has displayed, as well as this post providing a convenient excuse for any scummy posts or being on a townie lynch (bolded), I will be voting syllogism
On June 29 2011 05:29 syllogism wrote:
I'm not afraid of leading bad lynches at all, but I'm not going to lead lynches I don't believe in. There are a few players who are slightly suspicious (Drazerk for one), but the problem for me is that it's impossible to tell if they are bad town (like me I suppose), or bad mafia. Such a lynch is definitely preferable to lynching an active, contributing player like GMarshall, so I'll commit to such a lynch later or even make a case. There are also surprisingly many good players still lurking.
Also I maintain my analysis of the game mechanics was clearly pro-town and useful, which is more than can be said of your contributions so far.
##Vote: syllogism
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Well here is what I have seen after waking up and reading through the past few pages of the thread.
We start out with a bandwagon on Drazerk with seemingly no resistance. A DT dies, after he had been tunneling Drazerk. For some reason this convinces everyone to jump off of his bandwagon. MAJOR target deflection onto VisceraEyes, someone who it isn't likely TAA checked, based on his posts. Target deflection is a good way to resist a bandwagon without being obvious.
On the VisceraEyes lynch, I see a bandwagon that is even faster and less resisted than Drazerks was.
Let's also note that syllogism was gaining a fair number of votes before TAA died.
So tell me, what real reason do you guys have for changing your votes off of Drazerk? What really changed when TAA died?
Here is what I propose. A vig shoots Drazerk. We lynch syllogism or VisceraEyes. All three of these players have very good cases against them. Tomorrow a vig uses their lurker shot on ~OpZ~, a veteran player who has been lurking and is entirely aware of it, and doesn't seem to care about it. People have also brought up sinani206 again. After reading through his posts, he seems more like an inexperienced townie than a mafia.
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On June 29 2011 23:39 DropBear wrote:
Dude the votes went ON to Drazerk after the detective died. His vote count doubled in no time after TAA died. He was leading the lynch by about 10 votes.
I completely oppose the cases on both Drazerk and syllogism. Viscera needs to speak up and if I had to choose one of these three it would be him.
Oh hell I just looked at page 3 and saw a couple Unvote Drazerk, Vote VisEyes
Drazerk is still in the lead. You can ignore my post now
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Very good post, Palmar. If you're looking for me to be more aggressive, I start out Day 1 really confused and focus on getting town reads rather than scum reads. By Day 2 and 3 I have a much better idea of what to work with and I get more aggressive as the game goes on.
With that said, I will be voting to lynch either Drazerk or VisceraEyes. At this particular moment I am leaning more towards Viscera. I will make my choice between the two within a few hours.
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And yet, after reading through his posts again I don't get a scum vibe from him. There have been a few decent analysis' done on him, but the lack of resistance to his bandwagon really doesn't sit well with me, and he seems like he is genuinely trying to contribute.
VisceraEyes, on the other hand, has promised analysis multiple times and has not contributed it. This is one of the biggest scum tells I've found in games I've played before.
Here are all the posts in which he has said he is working on a case/will contribute
+ Show Spoiler +On June 28 2011 15:42 VisceraEyes wrote:
:O
I go to do research to answer GM's question and I come back to this?!?! Real Time is going to be INSANITY.
Vaccuous and fluffy. I think 201 is leading there with the 8-10 (exaggeration, but just barely) posts concerning his name. Yes, we get it. They're not the same people.
I was also going to say LSB for talking about a plan to put people on the lurker list and then not following through...but.... On June 29 2011 01:15 VisceraEyes wrote:
Only 4 pages in 8 hours...not bad guys, but it seems we're caught up in a lot of mudslinging and tunneling, something I thought we as a town vowed not to do d1.
Yes, we have to find a lynch target for today...but come on guys. Bring a case with SUBSTANCE.
I know, I haven't done much in the way of scumhunting yet. You don't have to remind me. I'm working on a case as we speak. Just letting you know I'm awake and reading.
Ciao! On June 29 2011 08:38 VisceraEyes wrote:
It appears the main topic of discussion here is Dazek vs. Syllogism. In the name of keeping discussion down to a few candidates, I'm going to go ahead and read back through these two individuals' posts. Stay tuned! On June 29 2011 09:03 VisceraEyes wrote:
I fail to see how you flipping green will prove ANYTHING about GM. You could just as easily be wrong about GM. However, if you flip RED, it's unlikely that GM is town...but I wouldn't lynch him based on that alone.
Dealing in absolutes is very scummy to me. Just sayin.
Back to reading. -.-
Here are all the posts in which he has provided his personal opinion on the game/suspects.
+ Show Spoiler +
Not a single one of his posts makes me feel he is a townie.
##Vote: VisceraEyes
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On June 30 2011 00:16 Palmar wrote:
Okay, your call.
I am going to stick with trying to lead the town on Drazerk. If you succeed in pulling people in on the VisceraEyes lynch, then I will obviously switch over, as I was the one who brought him up in the first place. My fear was we wouldn't get enough support, but you just might.
My argument for Drazerk is that lynching a target with no content that was being tunneled by a confirmed DT is a better lynch than most on day 1. It is a good lynch.
Good luck with your VisceraEyes train. It's a good lynch too.
I sincerely hope both those players will end up dead tomorrow.
I think it was Mr.Wiggles who brought this up earlier. Don't lynch someone you think is useless - lynch who you think is most scummy.
Seriously, go back through Drazerk's post history and find me posts that are more scummy than VisceraEyes. Show me why he is more likely to be mafia than Vis is, because right now I don't see it, and I don't want a townie lynched when we can get scum.
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That invitation extends to everyone who has voted for Drazerk.
Explain to me how he is MORE scummy than VisceraEyes. Tell me why I should vote Drazerk over Vis. Explain why there has been no resistance to his bandwagon. Explain why Viscera hasn't posted the analysis that he has promised to multiple times.
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On June 30 2011 01:17 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2011 00:54 youngminii wrote:
drazerk is more scummy than visceraeyes in that our only DT was tunneling him
that's all you need The question there is who did he really check? A better argument can be made that he checked GMarshall.
Exactly this. You are betting on the fact that he checked Drazerk, when we have no way of knowing for sure. In fact, he could have been roleblocked or not have used his check at all yet. It brings to mind Mafia XXXIX, in which Mig flipped DT in the endgame. Everyone was convinced he checked me because he randomly said he thought I was town twice. However, the obvious read was not correct - he had checked someone completely different.
Use analysis, not assumption.
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On June 30 2011 01:32 VisceraEyes wrote:
Guys, wow. I've literally never awoken to find this many votes on a totally different target than before (let alone the other target being ME). Holy piss. Yes, I've promised contribution. I've been rereading and rereading and rereading again. The result is not-so-surprising. Instead of defending myself (I have excuses, none of them good), I'm going to share my thoughts with the town as a whole. Give me a few minutes to get everything together, but now that the pressure is on, you can believe me this time. :D
I expect nothing short of spectacular from you. You've put it off long enough that I don't trust you at all anymore, and it only makes me more suspicious that you react as soon as pressure is put on you.
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youngminii, you say that you don't feel you should lynch Drazerk, and yet you're voting him anyway....based on the possibility that TAA checked him? We have no idea who TAA checked, or if he checked anyone at all. Remember - analysis, not assumption.
I highly suggest a vigi hit on this guy. If you're still alive tomorrow I'll be voting for you. You're scum trying to deflect a lynch away from your mafioso friend VisceraEyes (who still hasn't contributed his analysis)
VisceraEyes and youngminii are scum.
If you guys lynch Drazek and he flips green I'm gonna facepalm so hard I'll probably concuss myself. If that happens, vig Viscera and youngminii, cause they're scum.
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So I suppose Viscera has his case.
However, it is far short of spectacular. Great job picking up on cases people have already made though. You really didn't contribute anything new, and you've done nothing to convince me that you're not scum.
On June 30 2011 02:35 sandroba wrote:
Okay someone pointed out that he started tunneling Drazerk before he could have got his check back. The way this bandwagon is going drazerk will most likely flip town. I'm back on sinani206, for the reasons I stated previously. I think he's the best lynch.
Drazerk is a better lynch than 206, and Viscera is a better lynch than Drazerk. I highly suggest you change your vote to Viscera. He's scum.
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Hey sandroba
I really think you should pick between Drazerk and VisceraEyes for your vote. It would be way too easy for scum to vote for someone who isn't going to get lynched so they won't have to be held accountable for their vote. Those two are way bigger suspects than 206, in my opinion.
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Hmm. This is quite a dilemma. On one hand, I want to avoid lynching a DT. On the other, I think he is lying and scum. My first instinct is that Viscera is lying.
Say we lynch Drazerk and he flips red, though. Mafia then have a confirmed DT to shoot or roleblock as they see fit. We lynch Viscera and he flips red, and scum gain nothing new.
Either way viscera ends up dead or useless. I feel it is more likely that Drazerk is town than Viscera is, so I will leave my vote.
Compulsive Vigilante(s) - be ready to use your shot as soon as day 2 begins before you have a chance to be killed or roleblocked if it turns out that Viscera flips DT. I say one-shot vigi's save their bullets, because this way the compulsives can put their shot to better use than they would otherwise.
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Oh hell do I feel like an idiot now.
Sorry Viscera
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Is it possible that this is a no vigi setup?
Because I would have expected a hit on GMarshal a long time ago, but it all depends on what his role is/what information was shared.
1) He is mafia and a vig shoots him. This would be posted by a host
2) He is veteran and a vig shoots him. This may or may not be posted by a host
It's good to see you stepping out of the shadows Jackal. I was beginning to think you were scummy because you hadn't posted much. I agree with you on OpZ, and think he would be an excellent lurker hit if we have vigilantes.
On June 30 2011 22:36 Palmar wrote:
how about we lynch either mig or dropbear?
At this very moment I cannot recall any of Mig's posts, nor my opinion of his alignment. I am slightly suspicious of DropBear, but I have no real reasoning for it. I'll go back through these players posts today and see what I come up with, although I think there are better candidates for today's lynch.
Why these two players specifically?
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I think it is entirely likely that Viscera bussed Drazerk, because both of them were garnering heavy suspicion, and Drazerk was heading for a lynch anyway, so they would have nothing to lose by it. This theory is reinforced by the fact that Drazerk flipped goon. If Viscera is scum, he is most likely a GF or RB, and they decided to do that so they could save a power role for at least another day.
And just a heads up to everyone, I will be graduating today so I won't be on here very frequently (or at all) over the next 24 hours.
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On July 01 2011 00:37 GMarshal wrote:
I approve. However I would have liked for that bullet to have hit me instead.
Why, because you're just a goon? Even if you are a veteran and taking a hit would confirm you, it's better to kill a mafia than confirm a townie. You're not making any sense to me GM. You're playing a more pro-town game than almost anyone, and yet every now and then you post something like this that just doesn't make sense. However, I doubt a mafia would call a vigi shot to them.
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The people I am most suspicious of right now:
youngminii - Started off Day 1 with random accusations less than an hour in, attempting to disrupt a pro-town atmosphere. He still hasn't convinced me he is town. I'd like to see explanations for posts like this one
On July 01 2011 01:23 youngminii wrote:
Right now I am absolutely fine with a lynch on the following:
syllogism
sinani206
Varpulis (pending check)
Vain
GMarshal - Started off Day 1 extremely pro-town, but has had some weird things going on at the end into the beginning of Day 2. This will easily be solved by a smart vigilante. We either have dead scum or confirmed vet
syllogism - Giving me bad vibes, and there was something specific that I or someone else had earlier (if I didn't mention it, somebody else did and I made a mental note of it and forgot to actually record it). I'll see if I can find it tomorrow
OpZ - For a veteran player he's not doing too well. Ended up on the lurker list and hasn't been pro-town by any stretch of the imagination. He would be an excellent lurker hit today imo.
People I think are town
sinani206 - I was rather suspicious of his posts to begin with, so I checked over them. I think it is far more likely that he is town than scum, he has had some that can be construed as anti-town, but I do not believe that was their intention.
Palmar - Sure, there are some people who are suspicious of him, but all I can see is that it revolves around him being too pro-town. He has shown that he is charismatic and can be a good leader, and he has had many opportunities to use this to completely derail discussion, but has instead used it to focus discussion when it begins to get scattered or off-topic.
Uncertain
VisceraEyes - Could be DT, could be a major bus. However, if he returns Varpulis result as town and viscera is scum, he'll easily be counterclaimed. Varp, if he claims you are vanilla town and you are a blue role, wait until the last six hours to refute his claim.
Lanaia - I had an early town read on (him/her?) because everything posted was consistently solid and pro-town. However, since then I haven't seen much content, and I am growing more suspicious.
Cthsazsa - Similar case to Lanaia. I already made an admittedly weak case, and he shot it down with no problem. It was such a good case that I was convinced he was town. However, a lack of content since then has disturbed me.
Vain - I have seen nothing really pro-town, so I'll be keeping a close eye on him. He's leaning more towards scummy than uncertain.
Anyone else I have no real read on at the moment. The uncertain players I mentioned are simply the ones I have no read on that stand out to me.
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On July 01 2011 01:54 VisceraEyes wrote:
Okay, check is back...I'm not disclosing role because that would give information to all you mafia out there, but I can say that he's innocent.
So there you have it...my one free investigation. Either DB was targetting me or all the mafia roleblocks were still on cooldown. Now we have to figure out how to proceed from here. I suggest d3 I do a lurker check - there are some serious people on the lurker list, not just the typical new players I was expecting to see there...so we should consider doing a lurker check d3.
I'm going back to reread posts from the following: Lanaia, 201, Mr.Wiggles, and Vain. I'm hoping something comes up, as I'm not really hopeful about getting a check d3.
PS, I'm still waiting on a vig to confirm GM's claim...a confirmed townie in GM would be a powerful weapon against scum.
So let's see.
A mafioso posing as a DT would have access to alignment, but not role. How convenient. Here is what I suggest. In the last 6 hours of day, you reveal the role Varp returned. He then confirms it or refutes it. If he refutes it, we lynch you because you're scum. If he confirms it, you either had a lucky guess or you're actually a DT. Does this work for everyone?
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On July 01 2011 02:05 Vain wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2011 01:58 chaos13 wrote:On July 01 2011 01:54 VisceraEyes wrote:
Okay, check is back...I'm not disclosing role because that would give information to all you mafia out there, but I can say that he's innocent.
So there you have it...my one free investigation. Either DB was targetting me or all the mafia roleblocks were still on cooldown. Now we have to figure out how to proceed from here. I suggest d3 I do a lurker check - there are some serious people on the lurker list, not just the typical new players I was expecting to see there...so we should consider doing a lurker check d3.
I'm going back to reread posts from the following: Lanaia, 201, Mr.Wiggles, and Vain. I'm hoping something comes up, as I'm not really hopeful about getting a check d3.
PS, I'm still waiting on a vig to confirm GM's claim...a confirmed townie in GM would be a powerful weapon against scum. So let's see. A mafioso posing as a DT would have access to alignment, but not role. How convenient. Here is what I suggest. In the last 6 hours of day, you reveal the role Varp returned. He then confirms it or refutes it. If he refutes it, we lynch you because you're scum. If he confirms it, you either had a lucky guess or you're actually a DT. Does this work for everyone? That's actually not a bad idea. But what if they're both scum?
If they're both scum then we still have at least one real DT out there, and I suggest they check either Viscera or Varp asap. If we hear from a DT that those two are lying scumfaces, we lynch them both. If we hear nothing, they're clear.
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EPT
