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On May 16 2011 14:29 OriginalName wrote:
Ok now that 48 hours of wifom is over I have a question.
Is going through pregame really worth the amount of effort over results or should we play this like a normal game?
Im going to answer this by saying: sort of.
The biggest reason behind this are plans proposed by Radfield and Batman both are basically the same thing. Pro-town plans to attempt to control roles. When has this ever worked in PYP? Never, invariably someone always effs it up. So why bother with wifom, the only real analysis done on actual people was done by Caller, so really I think our best move is to play the game like a really blue heavy normal game.
Im liable to think somebody who suggested a no-pick list is scum just because it looks towny on the outside, control is a scum style so why let them get away with it.
Well we do play it like a "normal" game until the first role claim comes out 
Once that comes out and depending on the position the player was in we debate whether it's a falseclaim or not, or even if the person is worth lynching.
With so many information roles I'm sure things are going to be kicking off very soon.
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On May 16 2011 15:28 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2011 14:29 OriginalName wrote:
Ok now that 48 hours of wifom is over I have a question.
Is going through pregame really worth the amount of effort over results or should we play this like a normal game?
Im going to answer this by saying: sort of.
The biggest reason behind this are plans proposed by Radfield and Batman both are basically the same thing. Pro-town plans to attempt to control roles. When has this ever worked in PYP? Never, invariably someone always effs it up. So why bother with wifom, the only real analysis done on actual people was done by Caller, so really I think our best move is to play the game like a really blue heavy normal game.
Im liable to think somebody who suggested a no-pick list is scum just because it looks towny on the outside, control is a scum style so why let them get away with it.
Well we do play it like a "normal" game until the first role claim comes out Once that comes out and depending on the position the player was in we debate whether it's a falseclaim or not, or even if the person is worth lynching. With so many information roles I'm sure things are going to be kicking off very soon.
Day 2 will be interesting then.
I'm going to say, that we shouldn't drop everything that was discussed before the day started, and that in fact, some people are already making use of it.
Incognito expressed a suspicion in Node and then retracted it immediately. Caller later stated that he believes Node is mafia. From what's happened pre-game until role PMs, Incog now suspects GM enough to call for a hit on him. So, whether these suspicions are able to be substantiated or not aside, we still have information, if solely in the fact that these people were brought up as suspicious, and that Incog and Caller were so quick to start pointing out who they believe are scum.
So, I'm going to say we shouldn't ignore what happened before Role Pms went out, because there is definitely information there. I'm also interested in hearing from Node again, because he was mentioned twice, and has since disappeared, only making two, very small posts.
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On May 15 2011 17:40 Barundar wrote:
updated list:
1. Flamewheel
2. Scamp [7][11]
3. Caller [10][4]
4. Barundar [13][1]
5. Radfield
6. GMarshal [17][2]
7. Deconduo
8. Foolishness [1][x]
9. bumatlarge [1][18]
10. Kavdragon [2][1]
11. Chaoser [2][2]
12. Fishball [5][3]
13. KillerSOS [5][11]
14. Eiii [6][7]
15. Infinitestory [6][10]
16. Dreamflower [4][1]
17. Mr.Wiggles [4][x]
18. Original Name[4][6]
19. tnkted [4][12]
20. Chezinu
21. Ace [9][11]
22. Kurumi [9][x]
23. Incognito[9][x]
24. Node [9][1]
25. kitaman27 [9][1]
Anyone else that didn't claim numbers should soon. I'm surprised no one has made a big deal about number clashing yet like in PYP 1. With so many unique numbers at the top and a bunch of clashes from 16 on down I think focusing our investigations into the clashing sets is a good start.
We somewhat have an idea of what should be in the top slots so if any bad actions that were already discussed happen we know where to look.
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On May 15 2011 17:40 Barundar wrote:
updated list:
1. Flamewheel
2. Scamp [7][11]
3. Caller [10][4]
4. Barundar [13][1]
5. Radfield
6. GMarshal [17][2]
7. Deconduo
8. Foolishness [1][x]
9. bumatlarge [1][18]
10. Kavdragon [2][1]
11. Chaoser [2][2]
12. Fishball [5][3]
13. KillerSOS [5][11]
14. Eiii [6][7]
15. Infinitestory [6][10]
16. Dreamflower [4][1]
17. Mr.Wiggles [4][2]
18. Original Name[4][6]
19. tnkted [4][12]
20. Chezinu
21. Ace [9][11]
22. Kurumi [9][x]
23. Incognito[9][x]
24. Node [9][1]
25. kitaman27 [9][1]
Don't know why I wasn't updated.
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On May 16 2011 15:37 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2011 15:28 Ace wrote:On May 16 2011 14:29 OriginalName wrote:
Ok now that 48 hours of wifom is over I have a question.
Is going through pregame really worth the amount of effort over results or should we play this like a normal game?
Im going to answer this by saying: sort of.
The biggest reason behind this are plans proposed by Radfield and Batman both are basically the same thing. Pro-town plans to attempt to control roles. When has this ever worked in PYP? Never, invariably someone always effs it up. So why bother with wifom, the only real analysis done on actual people was done by Caller, so really I think our best move is to play the game like a really blue heavy normal game.
Im liable to think somebody who suggested a no-pick list is scum just because it looks towny on the outside, control is a scum style so why let them get away with it.
Well we do play it like a "normal" game until the first role claim comes out Once that comes out and depending on the position the player was in we debate whether it's a falseclaim or not, or even if the person is worth lynching. With so many information roles I'm sure things are going to be kicking off very soon. Day 2 will be interesting then. I'm going to say, that we shouldn't drop everything that was discussed before the day started, and that in fact, some people are already making use of it. Incognito expressed a suspicion in Node and then retracted it immediately. Caller later stated that he believes Node is mafia. From what's happened pre-game until role PMs, Incog now suspects GM enough to call for a hit on him. So, whether these suspicions are able to be substantiated or not aside, we still have information, if solely in the fact that these people were brought up as suspicious, and that Incog and Caller were so quick to start pointing out who they believe are scum. So, I'm going to say we shouldn't ignore what happened before Role Pms went out, because there is definitely information there. I'm also interested in hearing from Node again, because he was mentioned twice, and has since disappeared, only making two, very small posts.
Well whether we hear from Node or not doesn't mean anything just because his name was mentioned twice. Incognito has been pushing suspicions around already. Either he has more information than we do or he is smarter than the rest of us (read: me).
Needless to say I think he's just bullshitting around so far.
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United States4053 Posts
On May 16 2011 15:43 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2011 17:40 Barundar wrote:
updated list:
1. Flamewheel
2. Scamp [7][11]
3. Caller [10][4]
4. Barundar [13][1]
5. Radfield
6. GMarshal [17][2]
7. Deconduo
8. Foolishness [1][x]
9. bumatlarge [1][18]
10. Kavdragon [2][1]
11. Chaoser [2][2]
12. Fishball [5][3]
13. KillerSOS [5][11]
14. Eiii [6][7]
15. Infinitestory [6][10]
16. Dreamflower [4][1]
17. Mr.Wiggles [4][x]
18. Original Name[4][6]
19. tnkted [4][12]
20. Chezinu
21. Ace [9][11]
22. Kurumi [9][x]
23. Incognito[9][x]
24. Node [9][1]
25. kitaman27 [9][1] Anyone else that didn't claim numbers should soon. I'm surprised no one has made a big deal about number clashing yet like in PYP 1. With so many unique numbers at the top and a bunch of clashes from 16 on down I think focusing our investigations into the clashing sets is a good start. We somewhat have an idea of what should be in the top slots so if any bad actions that were already discussed happen we know where to look.
It's possible that Incog + Flamewheel have noticed something about Kurumi's numbers, judging from the posts at the end of page 23.
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Both of them have [9][x] so the only thing to notice is that they both picked the same number or unique numbers. Since I'm right above both of them with [9][11] it would be in his best interest to ask Chezinu what numbers he picked. That way he'd know if that him and Kurumi picked the same number (if Chezinu picked [9][11] also) or just won't know if it's unique (if Chezinu picked [9][x] or [4][x]).
Either way it wouldn't matter because nothing about number picks could tell you about alignment yet. I don't think FW noticed anything and instead was just asking what the second number pick is like all of us have been.
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On May 16 2011 16:12 Ace wrote:
Both of them have [9][x] so the only thing to notice is that they both picked the same number or unique numbers. Since I'm right above both of them with [9][11] it would be in his best interest to ask Chezinu what numbers he picked. That way he'd know if that him and Kurumi picked the same number (if Chezinu picked [9][11] also) or just won't know if it's unique (if Chezinu picked [9][x] or [4][x]).
Either way it wouldn't matter because nothing about number picks could tell you about alignment yet. I don't think FW noticed anything and instead was just asking what the second number pick is like all of us have been.
I also believe that clashes in numbers won't be that useful this early in the game. I'm sure that the mafia are smart enough to grab some top slots, while at the same time randomizing the other half of their members.
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On May 16 2011 16:15 KillerSOS wrote:
I also believe that clashes in numbers won't be that useful this early in the game. I'm sure that the mafia are smart enough to grab some top slots, while at the same time randomizing the other half of their members.
Why are you so sure, hmmmm?
Also are you suggesting we should be looking at at least one person who picked a low first number?
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FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
On May 16 2011 15:06 infinitestory wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2011 14:45 flamewheel wrote:
Hrm.
Kurumi... what was your second number pick? y has nukes bro? 
I don't, though my patriotism runs strong. Caller, your comment about Radfield not anti-American is gold, by the way.
Interestingly enough, we could theoretically hunt out an America by having everybody type a nuke command in the thread, though it's not really worth it right now...
On May 16 2011 15:43 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2011 17:40 Barundar wrote:
updated list:
1. Flamewheel
2. Scamp [7][11]
3. Caller [10][4]
4. Barundar [13][1]
5. Radfield
6. GMarshal [17][2]
7. Deconduo
8. Foolishness [1][x]
9. bumatlarge [1][18]
10. Kavdragon [2][1]
11. Chaoser [2][2]
12. Fishball [5][3]
13. KillerSOS [5][11]
14. Eiii [6][7]
15. Infinitestory [6][10]
16. Dreamflower [4][1]
17. Mr.Wiggles [4][x]
18. Original Name[4][6]
19. tnkted [4][12]
20. Chezinu
21. Ace [9][11]
22. Kurumi [9][x]
23. Incognito[9][x]
24. Node [9][1]
25. kitaman27 [9][1] Anyone else that didn't claim numbers should soon. I'm surprised no one has made a big deal about number clashing yet like in PYP 1. With so many unique numbers at the top and a bunch of clashes from 16 on down I think focusing our investigations into the clashing sets is a good start. We somewhat have an idea of what should be in the top slots so if any bad actions that were already discussed happen we know where to look.
For the most part, the list is finished. My numbers are irrelevant, though for the sake of transparency I chose the same numbers that a Serial Killer in PYP3 chose.
+ Show Spoiler +1. Flamewheel [ ![[image loading]](http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_t4OAkL5zAZE/S7zCmVEE3HI/AAAAAAAAAds/xOLuvaW5Fgg/s320/facebook+shark+emoticon.gif) ][ ] 2. Scamp [7][11] 3. Caller [10][4] 4. Barundar [13][1] 5. Radfield [15][2] 6. GMarshal [17][2] 7. Deconduo [18][2] 8. Foolishness [1][1] 9. bumatlarge [1][18] 10. Kavdragon [2][1] 11. Chaoser [2][2] 12. Fishball [5][3] 13. KillerSOS [5][11] 14. Eiii [6][7] 15. Infinitestory [6][10] 16. Dreamflower [4][1] 17. Mr.Wiggles [4][2] 18. Original Name [4][6] 19. tnkted [4][12] 20. Chezinu 21. Ace [9][11] 22. Kurumi 23. Incognito 24. Node [9][1] 25. kitaman27 [9][1]
I also have a post already typed up for tomorrow that will delve into said numbers a bit, though for the most part I think number theory (yessss math plug--later will come the time for numerical analysis) will only truly become effective after the first cycle. I could post it tonight, but I'll be able to cut a sizable portion of it out with one more number.
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On May 16 2011 16:17 Scamp wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2011 16:15 KillerSOS wrote:
I also believe that clashes in numbers won't be that useful this early in the game. I'm sure that the mafia are smart enough to grab some top slots, while at the same time randomizing the other half of their members. Why are you so sure, hmmmm? Also are you suggesting we should be looking at at least one person who picked a low first number?
Basically, mafia could be anywhere on the list, and it would be foolish to assume that we can find mafia based on the numbers that are picked until we've actually deduced a pattern by killing mafia. The only thing that's even remotely safe to say is that mafia numbers probably wouldn't overlap, but even then that's pure WIFOM.
Also, since Kurumi is the first person to get a vote, I'll say what I think of him. In TL Mafia XXXIX he got lynched day 1 because his posts were often confusing due to his lack of English skills and then even if you did figure out what he was trying to say it had little to no bearing on the game. That time, he was a townie.
I do think after that experience he's smart enough to not do the same thing again, but just be aware that even though Kurumi can be confusing at times, it's not necessarily an indication that he's scum. Let's try to look for the intentions behind his posts instead. I would like to hear his thoughts now that roles have been handed out.
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FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
On May 16 2011 16:12 Ace wrote:
Both of them have [9][x] so the only thing to notice is that they both picked the same number or unique numbers. Since I'm right above both of them with [9][11] it would be in his best interest to ask Chezinu what numbers he picked. That way he'd know if that him and Kurumi picked the same number (if Chezinu picked [9][11] also) or just won't know if it's unique (if Chezinu picked [9][x] or [4][x]).
Either way it wouldn't matter because nothing about number picks could tell you about alignment yet. I don't think FW noticed anything and instead was just asking what the second number pick is like all of us have been.
Well, the truth is that I expect it's easier to get Kurumi's second number than it is to get both of Chezinu's... Furthermore, knowing Chezinu's number doesn't really give us that much.
Furthermore, it's impossible for Kurumi and Incognito to have picked the same second number unless the number in question is 1. If it were anything else, they would be below Node and kitaman27 in the draft picks.
Back to sleep for now--see you guys in a few.
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FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
Oh, and I am in no way indicting Kurumi...
I just happen to be OCD, if you haven't noticed from the way I type and format my posts...
Data feeds me
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On May 16 2011 16:36 Node wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2011 16:17 Scamp wrote:On May 16 2011 16:15 KillerSOS wrote:
I also believe that clashes in numbers won't be that useful this early in the game. I'm sure that the mafia are smart enough to grab some top slots, while at the same time randomizing the other half of their members. Why are you so sure, hmmmm? Also are you suggesting we should be looking at at least one person who picked a low first number? Basically, mafia could be anywhere on the list, and it would be foolish to assume that we can find mafia based on the numbers that are picked until we've actually deduced a pattern by killing mafia. The only thing that's even remotely safe to say is that mafia numbers probably wouldn't overlap, but even then that's pure WIFOM. Also, since Kurumi is the first person to get a vote, I'll say what I think of him. In TL Mafia XXXIX he got lynched day 1 because his posts were often confusing due to his lack of English skills and then even if you did figure out what he was trying to say it had little to no bearing on the game. That time, he was a townie. I do think after that experience he's smart enough to not do the same thing again, but just be aware that even though Kurumi can be confusing at times, it's not necessarily an indication that he's scum. Let's try to look for the intentions behind his posts instead. I would like to hear his thoughts now that roles have been handed out.
Why did you answer a question that was asked of someone else?
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United States4053 Posts
On May 16 2011 16:33 flamewheel wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2011 15:06 infinitestory wrote:On May 16 2011 14:45 flamewheel wrote:
Hrm.
Kurumi... what was your second number pick? y has nukes bro? I don't, though my patriotism runs strong. Caller, your comment about Radfield not anti-American is gold, by the way. Interestingly enough, we could theoretically hunt out an America by having everybody type a nuke command in the thread, though it's not really worth it right now...
Wait, why is this not worth it? o_o
Is nuking yourself a valid option as America?
On May 16 2011 14:20 Incognito wrote:
Flamewheel please nuke GMarshal. Thanks.
##Vote Kurumi
1) FW said he doesn't have nukes.
2) I checked GMarshal's posts. He looks at Hero, Pardoner, and Cupid, but before alignment PMs are sent out. He asks for an exact role assignment pre-pick, which I admittedly do not like, and (perhaps coincidentally) position 6 is assigned Thief. He also makes a "threat list" which puts Chuiu Jack as pro-mafia and Vote Rigger as pro-town. I didn't look at anything deeply, but there are certainly some noteworthy flaws in logic.
3) A cursory (very cursory) inspection of Kurumi's posts revealed nothing in particular. There is a similar pattern of "not post very much, a couple medium posts and more short posts, not a lot of content in general" to KillerSOS and Node.
On May 16 2011 17:03 Scamp wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2011 16:36 Node wrote:On May 16 2011 16:17 Scamp wrote:On May 16 2011 16:15 KillerSOS wrote:
I also believe that clashes in numbers won't be that useful this early in the game. I'm sure that the mafia are smart enough to grab some top slots, while at the same time randomizing the other half of their members. Why are you so sure, hmmmm? Also are you suggesting we should be looking at at least one person who picked a low first number? Basically, mafia could be anywhere on the list, and it would be foolish to assume that we can find mafia based on the numbers that are picked until we've actually deduced a pattern by killing mafia. The only thing that's even remotely safe to say is that mafia numbers probably wouldn't overlap, but even then that's pure WIFOM. Also, since Kurumi is the first person to get a vote, I'll say what I think of him. In TL Mafia XXXIX he got lynched day 1 because his posts were often confusing due to his lack of English skills and then even if you did figure out what he was trying to say it had little to no bearing on the game. That time, he was a townie. I do think after that experience he's smart enough to not do the same thing again, but just be aware that even though Kurumi can be confusing at times, it's not necessarily an indication that he's scum. Let's try to look for the intentions behind his posts instead. I would like to hear his thoughts now that roles have been handed out. Why did you answer a question that was asked of someone else?
He didn't. Node was actually disagreeing with KillerSOS's assumption of where mafia would pick numbers.
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On May 16 2011 16:17 Scamp wrote:
Also are you suggesting we should be looking at at least one person who picked a low first number?
This looked like a more general question. Yes, I realize there's a "you" there, but a) it's relevant to how we collectively proceed and b) I don't see what you have to gain by having a specific person answer it.
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Well, also I believe we can rely heavily that a lot of mafia in the beginning will be rather quiet unless they are superactive, because you will want to spend every moment you get discussing exactly what you are doing with your team. Therefore I'm going to scope out suspects based on small posting with a clear sign of having interests elsewhere during the drafting and role picking stages. The offenders of this I find to be:
chaoser
deconduo
originalname
killersos
Eiii
dreamflower
chezinu
caller
Fishball
These are minimal posters. I don't believe their posting has at least a bit of effort put into them. I know most people were in a trend of not discussing certain details as the lack of information passed around does have a benefit to town, but role discussion was mandatory, and I felt most of these players outright ignored that portion.
I'm more used to chaoser and deconduo being much more active, regardless of alignment. These two are PMing, or on some IRC/forum chatting it up with scumbuddies about what their schemes are. I'll be putting my vote on chaoser.
##Vote Chaoser
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United States4053 Posts
Voting for Incognito since
I don't think we ever got an explanation for the accusation on KillerSOS (please correct me if I'm wrong).
+ random accusation on GMarshal and a vote on Kurumi with no backup either.
+ asking FW to nuke shit, although FW says he doesn't have any
= me confused and suspicious.
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On May 16 2011 17:12 Node wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2011 16:17 Scamp wrote:
Also are you suggesting we should be looking at at least one person who picked a low first number? This looked like a more general question. Yes, I realize there's a "you" there, but a) it's relevant to how we collectively proceed and b) I don't see what you have to gain by having a specific person answer it.
I think it's fairly obvious that I have suspicions of KillerSOS so I wanted him to explain himself, is all.
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you guys are throwing suspicions around like knives, be careful with those things!
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EPT
