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United States4714 Posts
I think we should kill kita. One of the biggest reasons is elmizzit's posts right after I posted my analysis. He panicked and immediately threw kita under the bus and started attacking you. He would only do this if he felt threatened. So therefore the only 2 combinations possible where he could be threatened are you/ilj are mafia or him/kita are mafia. I believe if elmizzit/ilj were the mafia he would have sat back and kept lurking to try and let us kill kita instead of going nuts and attacking you full force.
And you will notice I mentioned this fact last page and asked kita's opinion of it and he didn't respond. While asking kita all these questions over and over again anytime I ask him a tough question that he doesn't have a good town answer for he just skips it.
I have actually been somewhat worried this whole time that possibly you/ilj are the mafia and I considered trying to lie and say I wanted to kill ilj just to see if you would follow along. But then I am like well if db is town and I lie to him he might suddenly freak out and stop trusting me. But luckily when I asked you who you wanted to kill you have been pretty indecisive and even seriously suggested we kill elmizzit instead of going the easier route of killing kita. So that combined with my original town read of you has renewed my trust.
So unless kita says something that really shifts my opinion tomorrow then I am pretty set on going for him.
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United States4714 Posts
On May 29 2011 16:02 DropBear wrote:
We have to make the hard decision at some point anyway. Lets clean out the trash first.
What does ilj think about elmizzt? You haven't talked about him at all, just defended yourself.
Ilj has said he thinks elmizzt is definitely scum.
But yea we have to make the hard decision at some point so we should do it sooner rather than later while we are both still alive.
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United States4714 Posts
Along with that I think we can be fairly certain that either ilj or kita is the gf right? It makes more sense to me for kita to be the gf than ilj. ILJ has to work a ton and so he will have long periods of inactivity. Where as kita is one of the most active mafia players around. Just seems to make more sense to me for him to be gf than jonn.
And like you mentioned on this same page ilj's play this game has been consistent with his play in previous games right? Where as kita's play is different than his play in XXXVIII.
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United States4714 Posts
Disagree? Agree? Don't disappear on me now db!
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United States4714 Posts
Huh what weird and funky thing could possibly happen with the night kill??? There would only be 4 people left alive. Even if someone left somehow was a veteran and they got hit it wouldn't buy us another lynch.
I don't want to kill elmizzit then get killed during the night and not get a vote in the most important lynch of the game. So I am going to vote for either kita or ilj today and like 95% I am leaving my vote on kita.
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United States4714 Posts
So you are going to leave your vote on kita I assume elmizzit? Do you still think DB is the other mafia?
Also if you end up being town I am going to hate you forever.
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United States4714 Posts
haha my bad, maybe if you posted more actively I wouldn't confuse it.
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United States4714 Posts
On May 29 2011 20:55 DropBear wrote:
At this point, everyone thinks elmizzt is mafia yes? We aren't sure about the others. Why not just kill the one everyone thinks is mafia? We can handle the last day and you never know what info can come up if we go another day.
We either take a punt on the potential gf now and have a 50/50 chance of losing today, or we kill elmizzt and go in with the same odds tomorrow with slightly more information. I don't see the point of risking everything on who the second Mafia is when we can get someone pretty much guaranteed today.
We are going to have a 50/50 shot at hitting the gf regardless of what day we try and kill them on. We will only get a tiny amount of extra information on who is night killed but we will pretty much be in the same position we are now. If I knew for sure that mafia would kill you during the night instead of me I would have 0 problem voting elmizzt. But I have no intention of being dead for the most important decision of the game. Even if I make the wrong decision today I want the ability to at least make it. So I will not be voting elmizzt today, I will vote either kita or ilj.
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United States4714 Posts
Yea I know it isn't really 50/50. I think it is like 80% you are mafia 20% jonn is.
I agree that there is a very high chance that elmizzt is scummy but I don't want to deal with him atm I want to decide between you and jonn.
I have read through all of your posts and jonn's posts like 5 times each. And what has really decided me about jonn is just the whole part where he gave up and then sinani pulled out the coach post. I agree with your point that often times when under heavy pressure the scum players can pull out the ok I give up lynch me trick but usually they only do it when they are either A) trying to push some goal of theirs or B) they are under very heavy pressure but there was no real pressure under jonn when he did it. There were like 4 votes on sinani then jonn comes in and basically goes I am worthless I will go with the town and vote sinani. Then db makes a post and goes ok we should all switch our votes to jonn and 3 minutes later jonn goes yep you are right everyone should vote for me and then votes for himself. Considering how quickly it all came down this seemed like either he and db would have to be working together or it was just spontaneous on jonn's part. So then shortly after, jonn goes ok you guys are right I won't just give up and then targets orgolove saying he is the scummiest. And then a few hours after that sinani comes out with his coached post to try and get jonn lynched/save himself.
The whole thing just seems so so strange to me. Like what was the scum's plan here, have jonn martyr himself even though 95% of the town was focused on sinani and then right after have him change his mind and coach sinani to try and bus him all to buy jonn town credit? And this insane master plan was completely put together by jonn, sinani, elmizzt? I mean maybe if like ace was on the mafia team but we aren't exactly looking at a group of mafia all-stars here.
So I think jonn was demoralized by being completely wrong all game long, especially having his long analysis on EM end up being just completely worthless. He was really ready to die. Mafia saw this and they knew jonn would be their best shot at diverting the lynch, so they wrote up sinani's long coached post and tried to save him and keep their kp. If this was really some complex plan by the mafia to try and buy jonn super town cred then I will just say hats off to them because they have completely fooled me.
After spending hours and hours looking through posts and thinking on this my mind is pretty much made up. I don't think there is anything you can say to change my opinion but I guess if you come up with a plausible story for how the whole jonn trying to die/sinani bus thing was actually a giant mafia plan then I would be willing to listen.
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United States4714 Posts
Basically while I don't think the mafia would just be bussing one of their own between sinani and ilj it is at least in the realm of possibility. But I don't understand why ilj would have martyred himself when there was no real pressure on him.
I have been reading pypi while it was going on. And GMarshal did try to martyr himself but it was clear right away he had a goal. He was saying either kill me now to remove suspicion or follow my plan until the end. He was giving people an ultimatum to further his objectives. Jonn was just like fuck it I am terrible everyone kill me here I will even vote for myself. I just don't see the mafia motive behind it other than trying to gain town cred, but in that scenario the mafia were already going to give him town cred by bussing him with sinani.
So if all my analysis is wrong and I have just been completely fooled and I am killing the wrong person kita then I am sorry. I will try and figure out where I fucked up and went wrong to improve for the future. But right now everything tells me to kill you.
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United States4714 Posts
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. GG anyway guys. Was kita the GF?
Fun game though. And yea don't feel bad db kita/ilj did a really good job I think we woulda still lost even if we lynched kita tonight.
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United States4714 Posts
Ah ok nm I see he was the gf. Yea at least one thing was right haha.
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United States4714 Posts
Yea it is my fault somewhat also. I was really suspicious of kita the last couple days and I thought I wouldn't be able to make an argument to convince people to lynch him. But I definitely should have tried before we killed AO then who knows things coulda gone different.
Also please for the love of god if you are town defend yourself. Do not just disappear and do not vote for yourself.
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United States4714 Posts
Well I am happy I had kita pegged but I definitely learned an important lesson. I pretty much just 100% eliminated ilj as a scum possibility because I felt like there was no chance kita was just bussing him this whole time. So one of the main things I Iearned is to always keep your mind open and never decide anything is 100% true.
Also my early game is very weak but as I gain experience I should improve on that.
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United States4714 Posts
haha db don't worry one of the things needed to be really good I think is the willingness to put in a lot of effort. And no question I think you put a ton of effort into the game. So no worries me and you started mafia at the same time and I have faith we will both improve a lot as we continue to play.
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United States4714 Posts
Oh also anyone know who exactly forumite checked?
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United States4714 Posts
ilovejonn
05-14-2011
01:30 AM ET (US)
woah.. i said vote me not convince the whole town to jump on me... but if you wanna bus me its alright.
haha this is from the mafia quick topic this is pretty funny no wonder it didn't make sense lol
edit: jonn was talking to sinani about his long post attacking him.
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United States4714 Posts
Thanks node. So sick if forumite had survived one more day everything would have changed haha.
Nice job forumite you checked 4 mafia out of your 6 picks and correctly called chaos and AO as town. If chaos had ended up being mafia we never would have lynched him with everyone so certain about him being checked.
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United States4714 Posts
Er I mean you got 3 mafia out of 6 then ran unlucky hitting orgolove as miller. But still a great job.
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United States4714 Posts
I am just now realizing that if we had killed kita mafia would have had to kill either me/db that night. After jonn was still alive with 3 left it would have been really really obvious that something fishy was going on. Ahhhhh town was so close to a win! I should have tried harder to convince db that we had to vote between kita/ilj but I was just so stuck on elmizzt/kita being the only possible mafia combination that I didn't think it would matter.
I want to give a big thanks to Ver. I was suspicious of kita for several days but after I posted my suspicions he shot me down without a huge amount of trouble. I pmd asking for advice and Ver gave me a list of things I should think about while looking through kita's posts. One of the things that really stuck with me was to ask whether kita really cared about the town winning. After that I was able to write a much more convincing post attacking him.
Obvious Town MVP goes to chaoser for being such a monster
Scum MVP goes to kita for appearing pro town to most people until the end and even when you were under suspicion you did a really great job attacking jonn so nobody suspected you could be together.
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EPT
