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United States22154 Posts
On May 29 2011 11:51 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 29 2011 11:49 GMarshal wrote:
this post is a blatant attempt at stopping kita from having the last post in every thread! Your blue text can't fool me. Scum.
The fact that I'm quatruple smurfing in this game is supposed to be secret damnit!
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I didn't know that GMarshal was one of flamewheel's smurfs. You learn something new every day.
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oh, and 
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 08 2011 11:31 elmizzt wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2011 03:15 ilovejonn wrote:I think people need to think more about their votes. Sure you guys suspect redtooth, but like he said, is he really your BEST lynch for the day? Remember our most important KP comes from our votes. If you do not entirely or at least have a very high probability of thinking he is scum, I'd suggest reconsidering your vote to someone who you think has a higher chance than redtooth being scum. Today however, my vote is going on Beneather based on 2 quotes. On May 03 2011 06:44 Beneather wrote:
Really looking forward to playing this game :D lol. Going to be extremely active (: On May 05 2011 08:19 Beneather wrote:On May 05 2011 08:13 Jackal58 wrote:On May 05 2011 07:13 Cthsazsa wrote:
Why would we vote off inactives? We should leave them be. If they are mafia, well they aren't that much of a threat to us since they're not participating. On the other hand, if they're a townie then that'll just put a crutch in us. We'll lose a townie, PLUS we'd have wasted our votes.
People insisting that we vote off inactives just seems suspicious to me. Scum aren't a threat???? I know where my vote is going. Mafia slip :o Even if they do not participate in the discussion they still kill two of us. If they're inactive that means that they're lurking and don't want to get in to arguments to put suspicion on them so they do not get lynched. Pressuring inactives will make them active and find out if they're actually scum. The dude was seriously pumped before the game and even said he'd be extremely active. Once he got his role he became a total lurker. As pointed out by someone else, most of his posts talks about lurkers and inactives yet he does not consider himself being one! Extremely suspicious to me. Seems to me he does not know what to do after getting the scum role and just pretends to be away. On the second quote, notice how Cthsazsa raised a lot of suspicions as being scum. If we look at it this way, Beneather and Cthsazsa being on the same scum team, Beneather calling Cthsazsa on the mafia slip was like a little reminder from a person on your team. "Hey you slipped better watch what you say next time!" And then who does he decide to vote on at the end of the day? Kurumi! The easiest wagon to go on. If he thought Cthsazsa was scum, why didn't he decide to vote him? ##Vote: Beneather This is the only hard evidence I've seen so far. I'm voting beneather for now unless he says something to change my mind.
Hey look, the scum are giving each other pats on the back for their analysis! How cute.
On May 08 2011 11:54 elmizzt wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2011 11:53 kitaman27 wrote:On May 08 2011 11:52 elmizzt wrote:On May 08 2011 11:47 kitaman27 wrote:On May 08 2011 11:38 GGQ wrote:On May 08 2011 11:36 kitaman27 wrote:On May 08 2011 11:31 elmizzt wrote:On May 08 2011 03:15 ilovejonn wrote:I think people need to think more about their votes. Sure you guys suspect redtooth, but like he said, is he really your BEST lynch for the day? Remember our most important KP comes from our votes. If you do not entirely or at least have a very high probability of thinking he is scum, I'd suggest reconsidering your vote to someone who you think has a higher chance than redtooth being scum. Today however, my vote is going on Beneather based on 2 quotes. On May 03 2011 06:44 Beneather wrote:
Really looking forward to playing this game :D lol. Going to be extremely active (: On May 05 2011 08:19 Beneather wrote:On May 05 2011 08:13 Jackal58 wrote:
[quote]
Scum aren't a threat????
I know where my vote is going.
Mafia slip :o Even if they do not participate in the discussion they still kill two of us. If they're inactive that means that they're lurking and don't want to get in to arguments to put suspicion on them so they do not get lynched. Pressuring inactives will make them active and find out if they're actually scum. The dude was seriously pumped before the game and even said he'd be extremely active. Once he got his role he became a total lurker. As pointed out by someone else, most of his posts talks about lurkers and inactives yet he does not consider himself being one! Extremely suspicious to me. Seems to me he does not know what to do after getting the scum role and just pretends to be away. On the second quote, notice how Cthsazsa raised a lot of suspicions as being scum. If we look at it this way, Beneather and Cthsazsa being on the same scum team, Beneather calling Cthsazsa on the mafia slip was like a little reminder from a person on your team. "Hey you slipped better watch what you say next time!" And then who does he decide to vote on at the end of the day? Kurumi! The easiest wagon to go on. If he thought Cthsazsa was scum, why didn't he decide to vote him? ##Vote: Beneather This is the only hard evidence I've seen so far. I'm voting beneather for now unless he says something to change my mind. Is this going to be your only post of the day cycle? You're doing to good job blending in... And all you're doing is vaguely questioning people. Post something solid. Heh looks who's talking? You've got one post yourself this cycle. You mentioned you would post your thoughts tomorrow evening. We're still waiting. On May 08 2011 11:38 elmizzt wrote:On May 08 2011 11:36 kitaman27 wrote:On May 08 2011 11:31 elmizzt wrote:On May 08 2011 03:15 ilovejonn wrote:I think people need to think more about their votes. Sure you guys suspect redtooth, but like he said, is he really your BEST lynch for the day? Remember our most important KP comes from our votes. If you do not entirely or at least have a very high probability of thinking he is scum, I'd suggest reconsidering your vote to someone who you think has a higher chance than redtooth being scum. Today however, my vote is going on Beneather based on 2 quotes. On May 03 2011 06:44 Beneather wrote:
Really looking forward to playing this game :D lol. Going to be extremely active (: On May 05 2011 08:19 Beneather wrote:On May 05 2011 08:13 Jackal58 wrote:
[quote]
Scum aren't a threat????
I know where my vote is going.
Mafia slip :o Even if they do not participate in the discussion they still kill two of us. If they're inactive that means that they're lurking and don't want to get in to arguments to put suspicion on them so they do not get lynched. Pressuring inactives will make them active and find out if they're actually scum. The dude was seriously pumped before the game and even said he'd be extremely active. Once he got his role he became a total lurker. As pointed out by someone else, most of his posts talks about lurkers and inactives yet he does not consider himself being one! Extremely suspicious to me. Seems to me he does not know what to do after getting the scum role and just pretends to be away. On the second quote, notice how Cthsazsa raised a lot of suspicions as being scum. If we look at it this way, Beneather and Cthsazsa being on the same scum team, Beneather calling Cthsazsa on the mafia slip was like a little reminder from a person on your team. "Hey you slipped better watch what you say next time!" And then who does he decide to vote on at the end of the day? Kurumi! The easiest wagon to go on. If he thought Cthsazsa was scum, why didn't he decide to vote him? ##Vote: Beneather This is the only hard evidence I've seen so far. I'm voting beneather for now unless he says something to change my mind. Is this going to be your only post of the day cycle? You're doing to good job blending in... Yea, I'm not a heavy poster in mafia, but I read everything. And don't you think posting less would be sticking out, and posting more blending in? No, posting less allows you to lurk with the 10 others that have only a handful of posts, including the guy you just voted against, Beneather. Posting more allows us to have a better idea of where you stand and will eventually result in scum slips if you are red. Then why did I stick out to you?  Because I'm looking for scum. Are you concerned about sticking out? Make up your mind. Am I doing a "to good job blending in" or sticking out?
The weirdest exchange in the entire thread. I call elm out for lurking and he responds that "posting less would be sticking out". How does this make any sense whatsoever? Does nobody else find this incredibly odd?
On May 16 2011 11:13 elmizzt wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2011 14:19 orgolove wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Here's the spreadsheet with updated vote results. http://uploadmirrors.com/download/LFRNBCMK/TL_mafia_xxxix_day_4.xlsxFirst, the criteria again: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ivzZj.png) Day 3 was another really important vote, in hindsight, as sinani206 was revealed to be a red. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/bE3v0.png) ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/na9FI.png) Day 4 didn't bring too many changes. Though the vote was close at the start of 12 hours, it was more because the reds didn't have the manpower to switch the lynch, rather than there being actually two contested results. And the data shows that. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/0KqkS.png) ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/e7zuY.png) + Show Spoiler +![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ruJel.png) How did it feel, having to choose between two of your own? lololol Of course, in red's point of view, it'd be better to lose the new player whose every action had to be directed, and save the vet who could, given a miracle, survive... (ha) Here's the summary. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/GeFlM.png) I have more confidence in this, as it compiles 4 days of data, instead of just 2. But again, because I revealed the methodology before this, it is not completely impossible that the reds tried to coordinate and manipulate the procedures. I'll see about tweaking the factors the next time I play mafia. To me, the data clearly shows that ilovejonn and AirbladeOrange are the remaining two reds. Look dude, I appreciate your efforts with this statistical analysis, but the bottom line is, there is no way the conclusions can be accurate. Beyond the influence of intentional red manipulation, you simply don't have enough data to go on. Your sample size is pitifully small. It's not your fault, just a symptom of the game. It is far more beneficial to reach conclusions based on post content.
Discredits the spreadsheets since they implicate his buddy jonn.
On May 26 2011 08:10 elmizzt wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:On May 26 2011 04:49 DropBear wrote:This is very different to his posts about orgolove. He was rock-solid on orgolove, not so here just a suspicion. Perhaps. though usually a dt will go out of their way with a red check, but only hint in the thread with a green check. There is also the 1/7 chance he is the godfather to consider, which would invalidate the check. I would be interested in hearing from elmizzit in particular about who he would rather see lynched today, elmizzit or ilovejonn. EBWOP: AO or ilovejonn (unless he wants to lynch himself >.<) I spent about 2 hours last night poring over both their respective post histories, and I have no idea which I would prefer to lynch. Theyre both pretty equally scummy imo, and it doesn't help that their vote patterns are nearly identical. =/ I am probably just terrible at analysis  I suppose based on forumite's semi-vouch for AO, I'd say ilj would be a better target for tonight.
So you're saying you spent 2 hours yet refuse to make an opinion on anything?
Scummy, scummy, scummy. Everyone re-read this post.
On May 26 2011 08:43 elmizzt wrote:
Yea, I've been keeping up. I just really don't have much to say, unfortunately.
On May 28 2011 17:36 elmizzt wrote:The remaining mafia are kita and dropbear. First off, i've been wanting to look away from ilj for a while. It's far too quiet for the last couple days for the AO/ilj train to be true. A sign that scum is happy with the way the situation is, and feels zero pressure to intervene. Luckily the AO lynch stirred things up a bit. Since it looks like with my vote on kita, we have a confirmed lynch for him, I won't discuss him as much, but mig's analysis of him is pretty good. However, Dropbear, seeing the game so close to a mafia victory, has gotten ridiculously sloppy. At this point, the scum strat is to bus kita for the cred for that 1 vital mislynch. Kita is pretty much dead after mig's post, and the zero resistance he or anyone put up. First, dropbear puts up a token defense of kita, really just milks it. Show nested quote +On May 28 2011 15:23 DropBear wrote:
Well well well. Kita needs an explanation.
The only thing I can see wrong with this, why did he vote for Irish_Punk13 on Day 1?
This could have been an attempt to buy early cred when there was no way he was getting lynched, or it could have been that he just got it right. Mig smashes it, as DB had expected. DB then builds rapport with an obvious townie, Mig: Show nested quote +On May 28 2011 15:55 DropBear wrote:On May 28 2011 15:50 Mig wrote:
But the main point people should consider is just the lack of effort kita has put into his arguments.
You played in XXXVIII with me and kita db. When kita had a read on a situation in that game he fought for what he thought was right. He was actively working to get people he thought were scum lynched.
This game how often have you seen kita actually fight to get who he thinks is the scummiest person lynched? He just posts his opinion then sits out and lets the town debate amongst themselves. Which is the perfect strategy for mafia since we have just been lynching townies. I agree, he's completely different. The fact that he is still alive this late in the game despite being EASILY the biggest threat to Mafia if town is ridiculous too. He pretty much single-handedly destroyed our Mafia team last game. The other factor to consider is that he is in PYP Insane, but he's shown he can be active. I sure as hell trust you more than any of the other remaining players. I will join with you good sir! More sucking up to build trust. He gives validation to Mig's suspicions by saying he was "going to say elmizzt as well". I'd bet that if Mig had said he wanted to shoot ilj, DB's post would read " ya, I was going to say ilj as well" : Show nested quote +On May 28 2011 16:20 DropBear wrote:Ya, I was going to say elmizzt as well. Despite their wierd interaction on Day 2 they haven't gone after each other at all. On May 27 2011 00:36 kitaman27 wrote:
Ya, elmizzt has been somewhat suspicious, but I wouldn't consider him for lynch until at least the next day cycle. AO and ilovejonn have been pretty silent. Mig, you haven't posted since the night cycle, have your opinions changed either way?
I'm voting for ilovejonn for now, subject to change. They voted together yesterday incidentally. The rest of his posts are just more pushing for Mig to solidify his suspicions. DB is waaay too overenthusiastic to just get it done. At this point in the game, where one mislynch spells the end of the game, rushing headlong into a lynch is not the best townie play. Show nested quote +On May 28 2011 17:05 DropBear wrote:On May 28 2011 16:36 Mig wrote:
Well assuming kita is mafia then if he gets the town to mislynch this game mafia win. So if he is confident he could convince us to lynch ilj then he can easily say elmizzit is suspicious without fear. Also in a way that protects him in case we do lynch elmizzit. If we did then he can say see I told you him and ilj are the last 2 to try and get us to lynch ilj with 3 left.
For mafia to win they just need town to mislynch 1 time. They only need 1 of them to survive so no need for them to protect each other now. Alright done. Let's kill these motherfuckers. Show nested quote +On May 28 2011 16:30 DropBear wrote:On May 28 2011 16:24 Mig wrote:On May 28 2011 16:22 DropBear wrote:There is this just before Xedat's death though... On May 28 2011 10:37 kitaman27 wrote:
Sigh I feel so old, I can't even stay up until 11 anymore now that I have started working -_-
I'm thinking ilovejonn and elmizzt are the two remaining scum. If I don't survive the night, good luck town! Which part of that post worries you? The fact that he's fingering elmizzt. But then again at this late point in the game it would be hard NOT to get one out of two. Alright fuck it  Let's do this!
DB's whole attitude basically reads to me like scum smelling blood and getting overzealous.
Bam. Hook, line, and sinker. These are consecutive posts. He goes from "not having anything to say" to jumping right on the kita bandwagon. All I have to say is LOL.
Don't expect to hear from him again this cycle either. It's pretty obvious he is reading though. Dirty lurker.
Voting history:
Day 1: Redtooth Wrong
Day 2: Beneather Wrong
Day 3: sinani206 Correct
Day 4: sinani206 Correct
Day 5: redtooth Wrong
Day 6: orgolove Wrong
Day 7: ilovejonn Correct
Day 8: kitaman27 Wrong
Conclusion: elm is scum. It didn't take long to read through your posts. In fact, 75% of them are one liners. Lurk, lurk, lurk.
It's time for you to decide town. I've done my part. Are you going to buy into this ridiculous argument against me or lynch these obvious scum?
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United States22154 Posts
Kita you have permission to edit to fix the tags only, I'm keeping records if anyone is particularly concerned
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 29 2011 12:08 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2011 11:31 elmizzt wrote:On May 08 2011 03:15 ilovejonn wrote:I think people need to think more about their votes. Sure you guys suspect redtooth, but like he said, is he really your BEST lynch for the day? Remember our most important KP comes from our votes. If you do not entirely or at least have a very high probability of thinking he is scum, I'd suggest reconsidering your vote to someone who you think has a higher chance than redtooth being scum. Today however, my vote is going on Beneather based on 2 quotes. On May 03 2011 06:44 Beneather wrote:
Really looking forward to playing this game :D lol. Going to be extremely active (: On May 05 2011 08:19 Beneather wrote:On May 05 2011 08:13 Jackal58 wrote:On May 05 2011 07:13 Cthsazsa wrote:
Why would we vote off inactives? We should leave them be. If they are mafia, well they aren't that much of a threat to us since they're not participating. On the other hand, if they're a townie then that'll just put a crutch in us. We'll lose a townie, PLUS we'd have wasted our votes.
People insisting that we vote off inactives just seems suspicious to me. Scum aren't a threat???? I know where my vote is going. Mafia slip :o Even if they do not participate in the discussion they still kill two of us. If they're inactive that means that they're lurking and don't want to get in to arguments to put suspicion on them so they do not get lynched. Pressuring inactives will make them active and find out if they're actually scum. The dude was seriously pumped before the game and even said he'd be extremely active. Once he got his role he became a total lurker. As pointed out by someone else, most of his posts talks about lurkers and inactives yet he does not consider himself being one! Extremely suspicious to me. Seems to me he does not know what to do after getting the scum role and just pretends to be away. On the second quote, notice how Cthsazsa raised a lot of suspicions as being scum. If we look at it this way, Beneather and Cthsazsa being on the same scum team, Beneather calling Cthsazsa on the mafia slip was like a little reminder from a person on your team. "Hey you slipped better watch what you say next time!" And then who does he decide to vote on at the end of the day? Kurumi! The easiest wagon to go on. If he thought Cthsazsa was scum, why didn't he decide to vote him? ##Vote: Beneather This is the only hard evidence I've seen so far. I'm voting beneather for now unless he says something to change my mind. Hey look, the scum are giving each other pats on the back for their analysis! How cute. Show nested quote +On May 08 2011 11:54 elmizzt wrote:On May 08 2011 11:53 kitaman27 wrote:On May 08 2011 11:52 elmizzt wrote:On May 08 2011 11:47 kitaman27 wrote:On May 08 2011 11:38 GGQ wrote:On May 08 2011 11:36 kitaman27 wrote:On May 08 2011 11:31 elmizzt wrote:On May 08 2011 03:15 ilovejonn wrote:I think people need to think more about their votes. Sure you guys suspect redtooth, but like he said, is he really your BEST lynch for the day? Remember our most important KP comes from our votes. If you do not entirely or at least have a very high probability of thinking he is scum, I'd suggest reconsidering your vote to someone who you think has a higher chance than redtooth being scum. Today however, my vote is going on Beneather based on 2 quotes. On May 03 2011 06:44 Beneather wrote:
Really looking forward to playing this game :D lol. Going to be extremely active (: On May 05 2011 08:19 Beneather wrote:
[quote]
Mafia slip :o Even if they do not participate in the discussion they still kill two of us. If they're inactive that means that they're lurking and don't want to get in to arguments to put suspicion on them so they do not get lynched. Pressuring inactives will make them active and find out if they're actually scum. The dude was seriously pumped before the game and even said he'd be extremely active. Once he got his role he became a total lurker. As pointed out by someone else, most of his posts talks about lurkers and inactives yet he does not consider himself being one! Extremely suspicious to me. Seems to me he does not know what to do after getting the scum role and just pretends to be away. On the second quote, notice how Cthsazsa raised a lot of suspicions as being scum. If we look at it this way, Beneather and Cthsazsa being on the same scum team, Beneather calling Cthsazsa on the mafia slip was like a little reminder from a person on your team. "Hey you slipped better watch what you say next time!" And then who does he decide to vote on at the end of the day? Kurumi! The easiest wagon to go on. If he thought Cthsazsa was scum, why didn't he decide to vote him? ##Vote: Beneather This is the only hard evidence I've seen so far. I'm voting beneather for now unless he says something to change my mind. Is this going to be your only post of the day cycle? You're doing to good job blending in... And all you're doing is vaguely questioning people. Post something solid. Heh looks who's talking? You've got one post yourself this cycle. You mentioned you would post your thoughts tomorrow evening. We're still waiting. On May 08 2011 11:38 elmizzt wrote:On May 08 2011 11:36 kitaman27 wrote:On May 08 2011 11:31 elmizzt wrote:On May 08 2011 03:15 ilovejonn wrote:I think people need to think more about their votes. Sure you guys suspect redtooth, but like he said, is he really your BEST lynch for the day? Remember our most important KP comes from our votes. If you do not entirely or at least have a very high probability of thinking he is scum, I'd suggest reconsidering your vote to someone who you think has a higher chance than redtooth being scum. Today however, my vote is going on Beneather based on 2 quotes. On May 03 2011 06:44 Beneather wrote:
Really looking forward to playing this game :D lol. Going to be extremely active (: On May 05 2011 08:19 Beneather wrote:
[quote]
Mafia slip :o Even if they do not participate in the discussion they still kill two of us. If they're inactive that means that they're lurking and don't want to get in to arguments to put suspicion on them so they do not get lynched. Pressuring inactives will make them active and find out if they're actually scum. The dude was seriously pumped before the game and even said he'd be extremely active. Once he got his role he became a total lurker. As pointed out by someone else, most of his posts talks about lurkers and inactives yet he does not consider himself being one! Extremely suspicious to me. Seems to me he does not know what to do after getting the scum role and just pretends to be away. On the second quote, notice how Cthsazsa raised a lot of suspicions as being scum. If we look at it this way, Beneather and Cthsazsa being on the same scum team, Beneather calling Cthsazsa on the mafia slip was like a little reminder from a person on your team. "Hey you slipped better watch what you say next time!" And then who does he decide to vote on at the end of the day? Kurumi! The easiest wagon to go on. If he thought Cthsazsa was scum, why didn't he decide to vote him? ##Vote: Beneather This is the only hard evidence I've seen so far. I'm voting beneather for now unless he says something to change my mind. Is this going to be your only post of the day cycle? You're doing to good job blending in... Yea, I'm not a heavy poster in mafia, but I read everything. And don't you think posting less would be sticking out, and posting more blending in? No, posting less allows you to lurk with the 10 others that have only a handful of posts, including the guy you just voted against, Beneather. Posting more allows us to have a better idea of where you stand and will eventually result in scum slips if you are red. Then why did I stick out to you? Because I'm looking for scum. Are you concerned about sticking out? Make up your mind. Am I doing a "to good job blending in" or sticking out? The weirdest exchange in the entire thread. I call elm out for lurking and he responds that "posting less would be sticking out". How does this make any sense whatsoever? Does nobody else find this incredibly odd? Show nested quote +On May 16 2011 11:13 elmizzt wrote:On May 15 2011 14:19 orgolove wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Here's the spreadsheet with updated vote results. http://uploadmirrors.com/download/LFRNBCMK/TL_mafia_xxxix_day_4.xlsxFirst, the criteria again: Day 3 was another really important vote, in hindsight, as sinani206 was revealed to be a red. Day 4 didn't bring too many changes. Though the vote was close at the start of 12 hours, it was more because the reds didn't have the manpower to switch the lynch, rather than there being actually two contested results. And the data shows that. + Show Spoiler +How did it feel, having to choose between two of your own? lololol Of course, in red's point of view, it'd be better to lose the new player whose every action had to be directed, and save the vet who could, given a miracle, survive... (ha) Here's the summary. I have more confidence in this, as it compiles 4 days of data, instead of just 2. But again, because I revealed the methodology before this, it is not completely impossible that the reds tried to coordinate and manipulate the procedures. I'll see about tweaking the factors the next time I play mafia. To me, the data clearly shows that ilovejonn and AirbladeOrange are the remaining two reds. Look dude, I appreciate your efforts with this statistical analysis, but the bottom line is, there is no way the conclusions can be accurate. Beyond the influence of intentional red manipulation, you simply don't have enough data to go on. Your sample size is pitifully small. It's not your fault, just a symptom of the game. It is far more beneficial to reach conclusions based on post content. Discredits the spreadsheets since they implicate his buddy jonn. Show nested quote +On May 26 2011 08:10 elmizzt wrote:On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:On May 26 2011 04:49 DropBear wrote:This is very different to his posts about orgolove. He was rock-solid on orgolove, not so here just a suspicion. Perhaps. though usually a dt will go out of their way with a red check, but only hint in the thread with a green check. There is also the 1/7 chance he is the godfather to consider, which would invalidate the check. I would be interested in hearing from elmizzit in particular about who he would rather see lynched today, elmizzit or ilovejonn. EBWOP: AO or ilovejonn (unless he wants to lynch himself >.<) I spent about 2 hours last night poring over both their respective post histories, and I have no idea which I would prefer to lynch. Theyre both pretty equally scummy imo, and it doesn't help that their vote patterns are nearly identical. =/ I am probably just terrible at analysis I suppose based on forumite's semi-vouch for AO, I'd say ilj would be a better target for tonight. So you're saying you spent 2 hours yet refuse to make an opinion on anything? Scummy, scummy, scummy. Everyone re-read this post. Show nested quote +On May 26 2011 08:43 elmizzt wrote:
Yea, I've been keeping up. I just really don't have much to say, unfortunately. Show nested quote +On May 28 2011 17:36 elmizzt wrote:The remaining mafia are kita and dropbear. First off, i've been wanting to look away from ilj for a while. It's far too quiet for the last couple days for the AO/ilj train to be true. A sign that scum is happy with the way the situation is, and feels zero pressure to intervene. Luckily the AO lynch stirred things up a bit. Since it looks like with my vote on kita, we have a confirmed lynch for him, I won't discuss him as much, but mig's analysis of him is pretty good. However, Dropbear, seeing the game so close to a mafia victory, has gotten ridiculously sloppy. At this point, the scum strat is to bus kita for the cred for that 1 vital mislynch. Kita is pretty much dead after mig's post, and the zero resistance he or anyone put up. First, dropbear puts up a token defense of kita, really just milks it. On May 28 2011 15:23 DropBear wrote:
Well well well. Kita needs an explanation.
The only thing I can see wrong with this, why did he vote for Irish_Punk13 on Day 1?
This could have been an attempt to buy early cred when there was no way he was getting lynched, or it could have been that he just got it right. Mig smashes it, as DB had expected. DB then builds rapport with an obvious townie, Mig: On May 28 2011 15:55 DropBear wrote:On May 28 2011 15:50 Mig wrote:
But the main point people should consider is just the lack of effort kita has put into his arguments.
You played in XXXVIII with me and kita db. When kita had a read on a situation in that game he fought for what he thought was right. He was actively working to get people he thought were scum lynched.
This game how often have you seen kita actually fight to get who he thinks is the scummiest person lynched? He just posts his opinion then sits out and lets the town debate amongst themselves. Which is the perfect strategy for mafia since we have just been lynching townies. I agree, he's completely different. The fact that he is still alive this late in the game despite being EASILY the biggest threat to Mafia if town is ridiculous too. He pretty much single-handedly destroyed our Mafia team last game. The other factor to consider is that he is in PYP Insane, but he's shown he can be active. I sure as hell trust you more than any of the other remaining players. I will join with you good sir! More sucking up to build trust. He gives validation to Mig's suspicions by saying he was "going to say elmizzt as well". I'd bet that if Mig had said he wanted to shoot ilj, DB's post would read " ya, I was going to say ilj as well" : On May 28 2011 16:20 DropBear wrote:Ya, I was going to say elmizzt as well. Despite their wierd interaction on Day 2 they haven't gone after each other at all. On May 27 2011 00:36 kitaman27 wrote:
Ya, elmizzt has been somewhat suspicious, but I wouldn't consider him for lynch until at least the next day cycle. AO and ilovejonn have been pretty silent. Mig, you haven't posted since the night cycle, have your opinions changed either way?
I'm voting for ilovejonn for now, subject to change. They voted together yesterday incidentally. The rest of his posts are just more pushing for Mig to solidify his suspicions. DB is waaay too overenthusiastic to just get it done. At this point in the game, where one mislynch spells the end of the game, rushing headlong into a lynch is not the best townie play. On May 28 2011 17:05 DropBear wrote:On May 28 2011 16:36 Mig wrote:
Well assuming kita is mafia then if he gets the town to mislynch this game mafia win. So if he is confident he could convince us to lynch ilj then he can easily say elmizzit is suspicious without fear. Also in a way that protects him in case we do lynch elmizzit. If we did then he can say see I told you him and ilj are the last 2 to try and get us to lynch ilj with 3 left.
For mafia to win they just need town to mislynch 1 time. They only need 1 of them to survive so no need for them to protect each other now. Alright done. Let's kill these motherfuckers. On May 28 2011 16:30 DropBear wrote:On May 28 2011 16:24 Mig wrote:On May 28 2011 16:22 DropBear wrote:There is this just before Xedat's death though... On May 28 2011 10:37 kitaman27 wrote:
Sigh I feel so old, I can't even stay up until 11 anymore now that I have started working -_-
I'm thinking ilovejonn and elmizzt are the two remaining scum. If I don't survive the night, good luck town! Which part of that post worries you? The fact that he's fingering elmizzt. But then again at this late point in the game it would be hard NOT to get one out of two. Alright fuck it Let's do this!
DB's whole attitude basically reads to me like scum smelling blood and getting overzealous. Bam. Hook, line, and sinker. These are consecutive posts. He goes from "not having anything to say" to jumping right on the kita bandwagon. All I have to say is LOL. Don't expect to hear from him again this cycle either. It's pretty obvious he is reading though. Dirty lurker. Voting history: Day 1: Redtooth WrongDay 2: Beneather WrongDay 3: sinani206 CorrectDay 4: sinani206 CorrectDay 5: redtooth WrongDay 6: orgolove WrongDay 7: ilovejonn CorrectDay 8: kitaman27 WrongConclusion: elm is scum. It didn't take long to read through your posts. In fact, 75% of them are one liners. Lurk, lurk, lurk. It's time for you to decide town. I've done my part. Are you going to buy into this ridiculous argument against me or lynch these obvious scum?
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United States22154 Posts
that works too
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Opps. I'm so used to not editing that I accidentally hit quote rather than edit. Want me to remove the second post? -_-
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United States22154 Posts
On May 29 2011 12:18 kitaman27 wrote:
Opps. I'm so used to not editing that I accidentally hit quote rather than edit. Want me to remove the second post? -_-
leave things as they are, its cool
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I have to stop GMarshal from having the last post in any thread.
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Ok I'm back.
It's roleclaim time gents, even though everyone is probably going to say townie lol.
I am Vanilla Townie.
KITAMAN27
Self defence Part 1.
On May 28 2011 22:54 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2011 06:43 Mig wrote:
During night 5 I offered to switch last minute to impervious (the original person kita voted for and the one he claimed was most scummy) yet he doesn't try and convince me or anyone else to switch. Before kita votes he will post a small explanation for his vote but then never actively pushes for who he thinks is the scummiest. Because he knew that we were debating between lynching townies and so he wanted to distance himself and not stand out. In fact the last few days where we have only been discussing lynching townies you will see kita hardly discusses anything. This is untrue. I specifically remember asking in the thread "Is nobody going to switch over to impervious?" I then proceeded to repost my analysis of him. As for recent discussion, orgo and AO were dt checks. I'm not going to argue against dt checks. Conveniently, the town is pushing aside my attempt to point out AO's dt check and save him. Why would I try to give a townie a confirmed status when there are only 8 people remaining in the game?
You were indeed quite specific about asking others to switch. Mig is incorrect here.
On May 18 2011 11:31 kitaman27 wrote:
Careful Mig, if only you switch then it becomes 4-4 with orgolove. If you switch, we need someone else to switch too.
The only thing you say here that I take issue with is this:
Is this what you mean by your Impervious analysis?
You based the entire thing off 3 posts defending sinani. You didn't look at anything else he did really.
Self defence part 2
Your defence of AO was pretty weak mate. You didn't really try that hard to convince us.
On May 25 2011 11:50 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2011 13:26 Forumite wrote:
I don´t think AO is scum. He was out scumhinting early, and put many FoS on players who have been confirmed scum since. Meh close enough to 11. This post makes me think he may have gotten checked. Back to sleep.
On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:Perhaps. though usually a dt will go out of their way with a red check, but only hint in the thread with a green check. There is also the 1/7 chance he is the godfather to consider, which would invalidate the check. I would be interested in hearing from elmizzit in particular about who he would rather see lynched today, elmizzit or ilovejonn.
These are the only two things I can find. They aren't exactly convincing.
I would also like you to explain the timing of your ilovejonn/jaminz analysis on Day 3, which you never answered Mig about. It came just as EM and sinani had become the major candidates, with sinani tying ilovejonn.
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United States4714 Posts
Dp I am glad you are back. Once you finish reading up on the last few pages post here I wanna ask you a question.
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Haha give me a minute. I was out til 5am last night
At this point as far as I'm concerned it's either
kitaman27/elmizzt
ilovejonn/elmizzt
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Alright I think I'm up to date. Shit has got real haha.
Shoot!
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 29 2011 13:36 DropBear wrote:I would also like you to explain the timing of your ilovejonn/jaminz analysis on Day 3, which you never answered Mig about. It came just as EM and sinani had become the major candidates, with sinani tying ilovejonn.
I felt jonn and EM were likely not both scum buddies due to this monster analysis, which has been the only real analysis jonn has ever posted. I had a stronger scum read on jonn then on EM. If you are trying to infer that I was attempting to distract town and save sinani, then I suggest you look at where my vote was.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 06 2011 16:17 ilovejonn wrote:Eternalmisfit
Why I think he's scum Show nested quote +On May 04 2011 20:54 Eternalmisfit wrote:+ Show Spoiler +@ Redtooth - I am fairly inexperienced at mafia and this is my second mafia game ever.
On accusation of Irish and follow-up
I do not buy on the initial accusation of redtooth that Irish is scum just because he said that he was looking forward to play with 3-4 people he knew from before. That by itself is a rather weak case and does not give a scum-signal.
The strong response of Irish on chaoser's vote is slightly more scummy to me. But, what seems scummy to me was chaos13's strong defense of Irish.
The way I interpret is that both are mafia and are looking out for each other (or) chaos13 is just looking out for Irish just because they know each other from before but they do not know each other's alignment.
At this point, the evidence based on posting is rather weak for me to vote on either of them and I won't go beyond just a FoS on them. This is his first post. In the very early stages of the game I think he has the right to just FOS them for now. Since he doesn't buy redtooth's accusation of him being scum it would be logical to only keep an eye on him only. His analysis of Kurumi is a long post just for an FOS. Kind of similar to what redtooth did on chaoser. The thing that irks me the most is that he needed this long of a post for someone like Kurumi. He even included quotes he himself thinks are not worth analyzing. What is the point in that? Seems to me someone is trying to look pro-town by extending their post length. Almost anyone can see Kurumi's posts up to this point are spam/disruptive. Funny how he makes an analysis for the easiest person to finger. At this point I'm not yet certain that he is trying as a townie or just pretending to be one. Also, I feel that his FOS post is to play it safe. He doesn't really have to take a stance and call him scum, but his long post for an FOS makes it seem like he is still contributing. Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 06:30 Eternalmisfit wrote:+ Show Spoiler +As I posted earlier, I am not too keen on lynching a lurker/inactive on the first day in a 30 man setup as a blue kill would hurt us quite a bit. However, if we have someone in the game who has not posted/voted till somewhat close to the deadline and the town cannot reach a consensus on a mafia lynch, I would recommend lynching the inactive person since he was going to be mod-killed anyways. That is my 2 cents on the issue but it would nice to hear thoughts from more experienced players about it. Why would we want to lynch an inactive that is going to be mod-killed anyways? So that we can waste a lynch? This makes no sense. Also notice the last sentence. Usually newer players when they are SCUM they feel the need to get the approval or recognition of better players. There is natural sense of guilt since he knows what he said if anti-town. Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 06:47 Eternalmisfit wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
Sacrificing 1 inactive player to hit [potentially] 0 mafia is bad.
Ignoring 1 inactive player to hit [potentially] 1 mafia is a pretty good deal.
I think you misunderstood my intent in that post. I was more so pointing towards a scenario where the town is split in 2 or 3-way on deciding who to lynch. I was wondering whether lynching an inactive would be a reasonable in that scenario or not? In case of strong scummy behavior or a majority of town believing in someone being scum, I would be all for voting that person for lynching. When someone notices that what he said is wrong, he covers it up and decides to change his stance to "I would totally lynch the scummiest person instead of the inactive if town says so." Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 07:00 Eternalmisfit wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On May 05 2011 06:46 Cthsazsa wrote:
I'll give my thoughts so far on this.
I've noticed a lot of finger-pointing going around. A good example would be of KillerSOS qucikly criticizing Rising_Pheonix's post as spam, even though all he did was give his viewpoint on the current situation?
Sandroba is very quick to accuse people as being scum.
As a few people have already said, Kurumi's posts are strange. It seemed like that at first he was trying to attack chaoser, and then started claiming him to be a good pro-townie?
AirBlade's post instantly looked like anti-town. He was suggesting that we lynch Kurumi, and then he said that even if Kurumi is a townie, it's still okay.
As I said earlier, right now all we're doing is pointing fingers and forcing people into corners to make them look suspicious. I still haven't seen a good, legitimate reason for voting off someone yet. Sandroba was quite finger-happy in Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia as well where he was a DT. Now, this does not necessitate that he is town but his play-style in consistent with that game at the very least. I am quite suspicious of Kurumi as he spammed the hell out of this thread with mostly meaningless posts. I was going to give him the benefit of doubt of him being a young kid or being not comfortable in English for his mostly incoherent posting, but he made a rather coherent analysis post as his last post of the day. Since his last post suggests that he is quite capable of making reasonable posts, his other posts seem scummy to me written in order to create confusion and derail discussion. But again, I have never been in a mafia game with him and am not sure of his mafia play habits. I agree with AirBlade seeming anti-town. I am also for voting and lynching Kurumi if I think that he is scum (which seems probable to me at this point) but I would not vote/lynch him just because he posts horribly. This might be a lapse in judgment or scum trying to get a townie killed.
FoS: AirBladeOrange This post reeks of contradictions. He's suspicious and thinks Kurumi is probable scum. He says he's all for voting him IF he thinks he is scum (which he does), and then immediately says he won't vote for him because of his horrible posting. What? And then suddenly BAM an FOS on AirBlade which is surprisingly....dun dun dun, THE LEAST SUSPICIOUS PERSON OF PEOPLE HE FOS'd! I have trouble understanding why he needed to do an analysis on a person that he thinks has "no visible scum signs" and the least suspicious person on his list. Perhaps to seem like he contributed yet another awesome post? Starting to see a theme here? Contributing without actually contributing. Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 11:43 Eternalmisfit wrote:+ Show Spoiler +I am going to post my final thoughts for the night on posts till now and then head to bed.
I am going to vote for Kurumi for now based on his posting which seems rather scum-like to me (apart from his last post which was the only half-decent one). It is placeholder vote for now as there can be future developments in this thread and also I am still willing to give him benefit of doubt provided he explains his style/content of posts. Back to voting for Kurumi! I thought you wouldn't vote for him just on his horrible postings alone! Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 20:54 Eternalmisfit wrote:+ Show Spoiler +@redtooth
Quite a lot of the accusations against Irish are close to grasping at straws. I disagree on his defense against early chaoser/redtooth accusations being scum-tells. However, there is some scummy behavior when he tried to hop on the AO bandwagon and stated Kurumi made some good posts.
In light of one decent scum-tell and some rather weak/non-existent scum-tells from Irish, and lack of clear scum-tells from most other people, Irish makes a good candidate for a lynch.
Does that mean that I am 100% sure that he is mafia? No
This only means that he is highly probable of being mafia.
I can make a similar case against Kurumi as well. In both these cases, the two accused of being scum have shown odd behavior. On top, both of them descended into lurking after accusing AirBlade. I would have expected them to be more active after starting the case against AirBlade. At this point, I would like to see them post again and defend their posts and accusations of AirBlade. My current vote on Kurumi is to pressure him to stop his nonsense posting which is derailing the discussion, and provide an explanation for his voting.
At this point of time, I do not think anyone can be painted as completely pro-town which even includes the people providing detailed analysis since we have no concrete evidence to go-to and most discussion is based on interpretation and perceived intent of someone's post.
Also, the more the discussion is heading along in this thread, the more I feel that lynching Irish might as well be a good idea. As a lot of people in this thread have stated, Kurumi and Irish are prime candidates for their odd behavior. And then there are a few people (e.g. red) that have defended them relatively strongly. Thus, Irish makes a good lynch candidate as he has shown scum-vibes in his posts, and his flipping either red or green will allow the town to ascertain the orientation of a lot of people (redtooth's defense and chaoser's borderline tunneling).
Another huge contradiction. He has a placeholder vote on Kurumi all the while saying Irish is the better lynch. If you think Irish has scum-tells and lynching him would give so much information, why did you vote for Kurumi instead? From what you are saying Irish would be the better person to place your vote on! Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 02:36 Eternalmisfit wrote:+ Show Spoiler +People defending others People accusing/FoS/Voting others How to read this chartEvery player has a number against him. Green number on the column of a player means defense or town call for player # by this player Red number on the column means accusation or mafia call for player # by this player Bold and deep color represents multiple occasions of the said event i.e. strong support/attack This chart is applicable till Takuna's first post on page 33 (not including it) The purpose behind this is to analyze potential relationships between different people which will come into play after we people flip after lynches/deaths. I will post a more detailed analysis with my thoughts based on this within 30-60 mins. DOES NOT DELIVER! Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 04:59 Eternalmisfit wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On May 06 2011 04:28 orgolove wrote:
Oh wow. I didn't even realize it was chaoser himself that made the spreadsheet. Ugh. Hmm.... For the record, it was me who made the spreadsheet. I was unable to link the pictures properly so chaoser later posted the images based on my links. Unfortunately, I did not save the spreadsheet after making the images from them.
Also, the fact that someone did an analysis does not mean he/she is not scum. Now, if that analysis turns up correct on a flip might suggest that he/she has town/mafia-creds. But, at this point, there is no such evidence for anyone. ![[image loading]](http://img810.imageshack.us/img810/3578/sbagmisfit.jpg) The thing that makes me suspicious about the spreadsheet, is that it is entirely fluff. Don't know if I'm using the term fluff correctly but I think it means a seemingly contributive post that has no value at all. Yes, thanks for putting numbers that indicate who responded to who. But in what context? Don't we have to still go to people's profile, find their posts, read thoroughly, before we can decide whether there is any significant connections at all? At least I wouldn't just take your spreadsheet and base people's relationship on the numbers you've shown after a flip. For heaven's sake, you created a tool to help yourself organize people's relationships, and you "forgot" to save it. Maybe it was an honest mistake, or maybe you just wanted to show people you're doing something pro-town and then forget about the whole thing. Oh and thanks for the last paragraph. Exactly the reason why I think you're scum. Conclusion: Eternalmisfit seems to have great lengthy posts that contribute little of value. Most of the things he says are really echoes of what the majority of people are saying. His posting career up to now has been very wishy-washy and he makes many posts that are contradictory. I believe he is scum!
Glad you aren't completely inactive at least. Promise to be around tomorrow? I'll be heading to bed soon.
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That is indeed what I'm attempting to infer.
You didn't vote until later on, once the only realistic candidates were EM and sinani.
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United States4714 Posts
Ok first question I have is are you going to be online close to when the lynch happens tomorrow? Doesn't have to be super close but within a couple hours should be fine.
2nd if we assume that me and you are town then either ilj/kita is the 3rd town that means ilj/kita will vote for each other and the 2 of us must vote for the same person for town to win. So my question is if ilj either doesn't defend himself or I don't like his defense will you be willing to switch to him if I want to? Like even if you are leaning that kita is mafia would you switch if I wanted to? I know this question is hard to answer before we hear from ilj but it is important to my strategy tomorrow to know the answer to this.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 29 2011 14:04 DropBear wrote:
That is indeed what I'm attempting to infer.
You didn't vote until later on, once the only realistic candidates were EM and sinani.
Like I said before, I voted later on when it was 7-5, making the lynch competitive again. If I were on the other side, then it would have been 8-4 and clearly out of reach. You posted analysis on someone else during day three that wasn't sinani or EM, but that doesn't necessarily make you scummy. Also let me remind you of this post when you started to question sinani being scum.
On May 13 2011 12:09 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2011 12:02 DropBear wrote:
Kita, while I am unsure on Jaminz, note in my analysis that AO defends Jaminz. If you are right about him being GF, it makes sense. Why push those two rather than sinani? What changed your mind that he isn't mafia anymore?
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On May 29 2011 14:04 Mig wrote:
Ok first question I have is are you going to be online close to when the lynch happens tomorrow? Doesn't have to be super close but within a couple hours should be fine.
2nd if we assume that me and you are town then either ilj/kita is the 3rd town that means ilj/kita will vote for each other and the 2 of us must vote for the same person for town to win. So my question is if ilj either doesn't defend himself or I don't like his defense will you be willing to switch to him if I want to? Like even if you are leaning that kita is mafia would you switch if I wanted to? I know this question is hard to answer before we hear from ilj but it is important to my strategy tomorrow to know the answer to this.
I'm 12 hours ahead of EST so 11pm is 11am for me. I'll be having an early night tonight to be up in time
Um what? Kita hasn't even voted yet. He's waiting for others to make the first move, as he's done all game.
We do have to vote together, yes. I trust you completely relative to the other three. I'm not just going to jump when you whistle though, you have to convince me we are making the right decision.
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On May 29 2011 14:10 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 29 2011 14:04 DropBear wrote:
That is indeed what I'm attempting to infer.
You didn't vote until later on, once the only realistic candidates were EM and sinani. Like I said before, I voted later on when it was 7-5, making the lynch competitive again. If I were on the other side, then it would have been 8-4 and clearly out of reach. You posted analysis on someone else during day three that wasn't sinani or EM, but that doesn't necessarily make you scummy. Also let me remind you of this post when you started to question sinani being scum. Show nested quote +On May 13 2011 12:09 kitaman27 wrote:On May 13 2011 12:02 DropBear wrote:
Kita, while I am unsure on Jaminz, note in my analysis that AO defends Jaminz. If you are right about him being GF, it makes sense. Why push those two rather than sinani? What changed your mind that he isn't mafia anymore?
K, what's your point? Why are you reminding me of this exactly? It came the next day.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/QrdnSl&jEcjA)
![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/QrdnS&jEcjAl)
